Open 38 - Jester Mafia 12p (Game Over!) - before 484

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

/confirm

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

are you the jester?

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Oh and another thing, Mod

Does the Mafia lose if the Jester is lynched?

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

vote Benhalkum

Explain it to the Dead.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

IMPORTANT STRATEGY GUIDE FOR MAFIA PLAY IN A JESTER GAME

PAY SPECIAL ATTENTION! ESPECIALLY IF YOU ARE MAFIA! THIS APPLIES TO YOU MORE THAN ANYONE ELSE!

Well first off you might want to know why you would give a crap as to anything a protown player would tell you(and you know I'm protown since I'm not in your mafia group), well even though we have differing interests in that we want different things(I want to kill all the mafia and you want to kill all of the town) we have a COMMON GOAL in that we do not want to LYNCH THE JESTER, because if that happens, we ALL LOSE.

Well what are the odds of us hitting the lousy jester with a lynch anyway? on the surface it looks like 1 out of 12 since there's 12 players in the game, but since you know you're not the jester, that means if you are lynching someone OTHER than yourself, the odds to you should appear as 1 in 11. Consider for a second how crappy 1 in 11 is in terms of instant loss, but then consider that it is NOT 1 in 11 from the perspective of the Mafia, Yes that's you evil nightkillers out there. If the person being run up and about to be lynched is NOT in your killing group, that means he has a one in 9 chance of being the jester as you know THREE people who are not the jester: you and your partners. Think for a second on how crappy the odds are of a 1 in 9 chance of instant loss, you don't even get a chance to nightkill the Jester, instead all that happens is you lose if you lynch him early.

If you factor in the fact that the jester may very well be more likely to be lynched since that's what he WANTS, the probability could easily move towards 1 in 6 or 1 in 5 of an instant loss.

So when you see someone not in your group being run up because he looks suspicious, you MUST think of it as a possible loss waiting to happen BECAUSE the odds of that person being the jester is greatly heightened, you can't think of it as a break for your group that you are being left alone and someone else is being run up, you must think of it as a possible loss waiting to happen if he is possibly jester.

This is the mistake the mafia made during the face to face game, when dirge became a big target and people moved towards voting him, the mafia let themselves stay silent and complacent during Dirge's subsequent lynch and victory, if they had instead done something, they might very well have won that game rather than instantly lose on day one along with the town.

How do you prevent a loss this way? Easy, you come out and SAY THAT YOU ARE MAFIA AND THAT THE SUSPICIOUS PERSON ABOUT TO BE LYNCHED IS NOT IN YOUR MAFIA GROUP AND IS QUITE LIKELY TO BE THE JESTER.

This is preferable to the jester getting lynched and winning BECAUSE IF THE JESTER IS LYNCHED, YOU LOSE AUTOMATICALLY, YOU HAVE NO CHANCE OF WINNING AT ALL. Even if you do have to sacrifice a member to remove the Jester, you should do it BECAUSE AT LEAST THEN YOU HAVE SOME CHANCE OF WINNING DOWN A MAN WHILE IF YOU HADNT SACRIFICED YOU WOULD HAVE NO CHANCE AT ALL.

Why would the town believe you and not lynch the other person? Simple! Because you have NO INCENTIVE TO LIE, admitting being mafia in order to prevent loss via jester MAKES SENSE FOR THE MAFIA TO DO AND THE TOWN WOULD DEFINITELY BELIEVE YOU AND LYNCH YOU AND THUS WE WOULD REMOVE THE JESTER THREAT SINCE YOU CAN NIGHTKILL HIM THE NIGHT AFTERWARDS!

I am issuing this strategy guide because I believe it is beneficial for the town and the mafia to understand this possible move by the mafia in order to prevent a loss to the jester that would give them a better chance at winning.

I believe if the mafia follow this strategy, it will increase the chances of the mafia or the town winning and decrease the odds of a jester win which is beneficial to me since I am a townie.

Anyone who does not understand the strategy/concepts I've outlined should tell me so because I am perfectly willing to elaborate further because IT IS IN MY INTERESTS THAT EVERYONE UNDERSTANDS THIS STRATEGY BECAUSE THEN THE MAFIA WOULD UNDERSTAND IT AND BE ABLE TO USE IT TO PREVENT A JESTER LYNCH.

That's all for now.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

I disagree, Pooky. It's an interesting strategy, but totally WIFOM. If the jester is sitting back being patient to avoid a night-lynch, then someone is about to be lynched, the jester could then stand up and say, "I'm mafia. He's not in my group. Don't lynch him." Then we run "the scum" up and lose.

Or suppose an actual scum stands up and says, "I'm mafia. He's not in my group. Don't lynch him." Then the jester says, "That's not true. *I'm* mafia. LAL."

I'm certainly not willing to lynch someone just because they claim to be scum.

To your first point, yes the Jester could do that but look at what it would look like from the Mafia point of view. They KNOW that when the Jester tries to claim mafia that the person claiming mafia is ACTUALLY the jester, they know that if they don't intervene, the jester WILL BE LYNCHED BY US AND THEY WILL LOSE. Thus their best move at that point is to COUNTERCLAIM THE JESTER AND CLAIM TO BE MAFIA IN ORDER TO PREVENT A LOSS DUE TO THE JESTER! Then the town will not lynch EITHER of the two players and in the night, the mafia will nightkill the jester in order to eliminate their possibility of losing through that avenue.

In the 2nd scenario, a jester counterclaiming a mafia WONT be lynched because we know out of the 2 players claiming to be mafia, one of them is MAFIA and one is a JESTER, so our best move is to not lynch EITHER OF THEM AND LET THE MAFIA NIGHTKILL THE JESTER AT NIGHT(Because the Mafia know which of the 2 is the actual Jester and the Mafia can't risk letting us lose to the jester).

This is a WIN-WIN FOR US BECAUSE THE MAFIA WOULD NEVER LET A JESTER WHO IS CLAIMING TO BE MAFIA WIN BY BEING LYNCHED BECAUSE SUCH A MOVE WILL MEAN THEY WILL DEFINITELY LOSE! EVEN IF THE MAFIA GO DOWN ONE MAN, they will STILL HAVE A CHANCE AT WINNING! However if they let the jester who fakeclaimed mafia be lynched, they have absolutely no chance to be lynched.

I'd say a slightly smaller percentage of winning due to losing a man is MUCH more preferable than the absolutely 100% chance of losing when the jester does get lynched.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

vote: Ryan

contribute? what would you like me to contribute?

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

unvote

vote Atticus

welcome!