Open 37 - Crush Nightless (Game Over) before 477

[distad]

Okay... I'm here. I'm here. (Not much access on weekends.)

Vote: Battle Mage

for giving me grief for not being here over the weekend.

[distad]

I do occasionally check in on Saturdays to see what's going on, but I don't do much by way of analysis/thorough reading.

I didn't even notice that it was used before me. So,

Unvote, Vote: mneme

for stealing *MY* defense.

[distad]

mneme - I might not have posted it... but I thought it *REALLY* hard.

Why me, Ms Piggy? Am I your target??

[distad]

Ms Piggy-

If I'm the target and I'm at -1, then the lyncher could quick hammer me and win immediately...

[distad]

I wanted to, and got a reaction like planned.

Did you seriously think that putting him at -1 would cause someone to hammer?

You act quite aghast.

Vote: Ms Piggy

This isn't an OMGUS vote, either. This is a "i'll put him at -1 and maybe someone will hammer him and i'll be the innocent voter" who got caught and came up with a "I got a reaction" response to help ease suspicion.

Really scummy...

[distad]

Sorry...

Unvote, Vote: Ms Piggy

[distad]

I think there is a definite possibility that she is the lyncher. Putting her target at -1 hoping that someone agrees with the logic/bandwagon and then hammers me... not too bad of a strategy.

However, I wasn't referring to the lyncher position by itself. Just the way the -1 was handled (after the fact) gave me a real scum vibe.

[distad]

I'd love to throw an OMGUS FOS at

mneme

for the craplogic comment, especially when logic and optimization were parts of my major in college, but really, he is the only person I'm relatively confident about being pro-town (based on the tone of his misunderstanding comments).

I'm not sure how to handle

pickem

's reaction to my -1 situation.

It's either:
1) pro-town (trying to keep from rushing into something hasty);
2) scummy (trying to keep from a potential "target" getting quick-lynched); or,
3) the lyncher (not wanting to kill anyone other than his specific "target")

So, there's a total WIFOM. I'm leaning toward 1, but I would buy 2 and 3 as well.

I can't really say too much about the others, though. I mean,

Qman

just joined us yesterday afternoon...

MsPiggy

has been VERY liberal with her vote choice thus far. We had been in the random voting stage, though, so that could have a bit to do with it. Still, accusing me of being panicky after questioning her motives for putting me at -1 makes me a bit suspicious (hence my vote).

Finally, I don't know if

BM

's last question was a tell or an honest question... For now, I'll lean on the side of honest question...

[distad]

I was just giving you a hard time.

[distad]

*bump*

[distad]

I was just giving you a hard time.

lol. unfortunately i think it killed activity. :p

<sigh> I didn't mean it! Please come back!!!

(This is my one permitted drunken post. Just an FYI. )

[distad]

Care to elaborate on the -1, pickem?

I'm totally fine with it... I just would like to see a reason in there, also...

[distad]

Yeah. I guess I dropped the ball on the math, there. I probably saw yours and mistook it for a vote. Good thing we have a mod for the official count.

That said, Qman, it looks like weekdays are "no spare time days" also!!

[distad]

No, it's hardly trucking along at all... But if you're going to lurk like this and drop a post like above, why don't you at least spend another 2 minutes to say something meaningful about the game?

The complete lack of meaningful discussion is not anti-scum.

[distad]

*bump*

[distad]

Speaking of hanging around, Piggy...

The last time you had been here was what? 4 days ago? Look before you attack...

The question with your going -1 was how quickly and slickly you did it. Your reason on your vote? "He REALLY needs to be lynched."

That's just not good enough.

For the record? You're -1.

[distad]

Hey guys... I'll likely be gone all day tomorrow (Sunday). I'll be back on my normal posting on Monday. I will also be leaving early on Thursday for a 4-day long attack on my liver called 'Reggae on the River'. So... I will post early on Thurs, but then be gone for 3+ days. Please don't replace me. I will still remain active, and it's a weekend plus a day. Not too bad.

[distad]

mod

question: If the lyncher dies and then the target dies later, does the lyncher still win? The lyncher still accomplishes his/her task, but is already dead and ostensibly out of the game...

[distad]

Hmmm...

Unvote

If that's the case, we need to think about why we're FOSing Piggy. I think that she's the lyncher and I'm her target. Her ultra cavalier-ness about putting me at -1 on Page 1 and her smarmy retraction from the position make me fairly certain about that.

But... if we kill the lyncher on D1, we have 3 town and 2 scum left, putting us at lylo. If we kill the Godfather, we'd have 3 town and the lyncher, giving us far more leeway. If we kill the goon, we'd have 3 town, 1 scum and the lyncher. Even at that point, we're not necessarily at lylo.

You could certainly WIFOM me as the lyncher, but either way, going for the scum makes the most sense.

[distad]

There is certainly a decent possibility of it. Throwing piggy at -1 when she knew piggy wasn't scum is probably unlikely.

I buy it.

Although, if that's the case, Piggy's OMGUS on mneme is likely a HORRIBLE idea, unless she's trying to pull any suspicion from herself in a last-ditch effort to stay in the game (she was well on her way to a lynch).

I'm not ready to put him at -1, but it's certainly a legitimate concern.

[distad]

EBWOP: Or, if mneme is not scum, recklessly throwing piggy at -1 for recklessly putting me at -1, not knowing anything else about piggy is equally unlikely...

[distad]

Well... there are a lot of possible answers:
1) She might not understand the dynamic of this format
2) She might have forgotten that if the GF dies, goon does also
3) She's quick tempered and throwing darts at ANYTHING.

I'm going to

Vote: Ms Piggy

. If she's the lyncher, fine. Not ideal, but fine (eliminate an evil). If she's the goon, we have a nice distancing/bussing FOS for mneme.

If there's someone that needs to be lynched, it's Mneme.

If that's all you have on me, and you guys think it's enough, then okay, I can't do anything about it.

Also, let me just say that you come back after not posting since page 1, just to regurgitate some exhausted topic based on a post. All in all, not looking good.

These are just too scummy. I've got to place that vote.

[distad]

There's the hammer.

[distad]

Holy swing and a miss!

I am quite baffled.

[distad]

Okay.... that REALLY sucks.

No more random voting. A mis-vote could lead to a mafia quick-lynch and game over.

So...

1 GF
1 Goon
1 Lyncher
1 Target (pro-town)
1 Townie

LOS:
1) Battle Mage (I'm sure most of you have me up here also, though)
2) Qman (Cpt. Lurker, just sitting there, watching us tie her up)
3) Mneme (the "pro-town" point was brought up by my #1 subject... admitted lurking in 54 and then came through with some veiled logic)
4) Pick-em (nothing since 57, a quick one-line retort after Piggy's OMGUS vote).

[distad]

EBWOP: Although, there he is, right on top of the most recent vote................................

[distad]

BM- It's for the same reasons that others will have me at the top of their list. I don't think that I led you into voting for her. I think we were walking hand-in-hand down that road and unfortunately we were wrong. Because we were wrong, I had to put you up at the top.

One reason that Q-man would not have hammered is if he was the GF. It would point too big of a FOS at him, and if the GF dies, mafia loses. He knew that we would eventually get to it ourselves and it wasn't worth the extra risk.

[distad]

FoS mneme

-- we all hoped Piggy was scum, or at least the lyncher.

And Q-man... saying that lynching Piggy is a bad idea could very much be a scummy move. You (if scum) would know that she wasn't scum and are afraid that she's the target.

I'm starting to lean toward Q (GF) and mneme (G). I really don't have an opinion of BM or PickEm as the lyncher, though. Even though Piggy's gone, I still think that I'm the top choice for target -- I went to -1 quickly on page 1 and I think that the lyncher is one of those voters... (Amusingly, I just checked to see who they were... BM, PE, and Piggy!)

[distad]

And Q-man... saying that lynching Piggy is a bad idea could very much be a scummy move. You (if scum) would know that she wasn't scum and are afraid that she's the target.

So let me get this straight, you are attempting to damn me for saying that lynching someone that ended up town was a bad idea?

Either I'm sitting here watching you string her up or I'm only saying don't lynch her because i'm scum. As you have said I have done both, which is impossible, which one is it really?

I'm saying that you can't use that as a defense. We're down to the point where 3 of the 4 of you are dirty. That gives you a 75% chance of fitting into scum or lyncher. Looking at them, I think that you're more likely the GF of the three.

[distad]

I'm back! I'm back!

I'll look through it all and post tomorrow morning.

[distad]

My thoughts are that Distad is the Lyncher, and perhaps that QMan is his target (he placed him high on his LoS).

That's funny. I was just thinking, "Okay... we're not going anywhere. I think that BM and PE are least scummy... so which of Q-man and mneme should I vote for... Q-man seems LESS townie than mneme, so for the time being, I'd vote for Q-man"

I still stand by that thought, though. I think that mneme and Q-man are scumbuddies. Nothing from their interactions together point me to that, but their individual performances put me there (I have detailed these above). I'm not sure what a vote would do at this point. If I'm wrong, the mafia wouldn't necessarily quick-lynch because they wouldn't know if he was the target or not. It's tempting. But, I won't.

However,

FoS Q-man

and

FoS mneme

.

[distad]

That's it?

[distad]

Thanks, Q.

I totally agree with the comment on PE. I mean, there hasn't been even a half-assed effort to get him lynched. The part that seems off for me on that is that I think that mneme is scum, also.

As for you, my reason for you is TOTALLY wifom. I'm not even presenting a full case against you. I'm just presenting a case that your defense isn't concrete. This game is totally different from other games. From a scum's perspective (how I'm treating your response), any non-mafia kill seems unsafe. If you don't think the person is the lyncher, it's not a safe kill. So, your sitting to the side saying, "This is a bad idea" cannot be taken wholly on its face value.

That's all I'm saying.

As for why I think you're scum, I don't think you're the lyncher at all as you haven't really come out against anyone. You've sat back and played it safe and haven't focused any part of an attack on anyone. I don't think that you are acting proactively pro-town, either, which leaves me no other option than scum. Townies tend to be more active in scum-hunting as opposed to the silent lurking that you have exhibited. It doesn't guarantee that you're scum, obviously, but there is a definite stigma hanging over you because of it. Now I'm combining all of those factors...

There. I guess I have more of a case than I thought.

Vote: Q-man

[distad]

I wish you would have thrown that one out there before today... we could have pressed a little harder for contributions before then...

Unvote, Vote: mneme

You were sitting back the whole of today with a vote, then, after I post my vote, you put Q-man to -1 within an hour. I know the irony is there that I'm putting you at -1 right now, but mine wasn't a hop-on possibly looking for a quick-lynch.

I've stated my thoughts for your being scummy the whole day. Now thinking about it further, your quick vote puts you higher on my list.

[distad]

Yeah... but votes had started on Mon. And we're not necessarily in lylo. FWIW, every day is possibly lylo in this format.

I'm sticking with my vote. If there were to be a quick-lynch, I think it would have happened by now.

[distad]

Hey Xyzzy...

Just a word of caution. Take a few minutes before you come out firing. The game is in a pretty tenuous spot and is a VERY weird format.

That said, I'd love to hear your thoughts (particularly before a vote).

[distad]

Um... I believe mneme is already at -1.

Also, what do you think about the few of us who found Q-man scummy and thus are suspicious of you?

[distad]

Q-man... I think you're the GF.

You threw your suspicions on mneme but didn't vote him. You didn't want to totally bus your partner yet, but you still wanted to make sure we knew your position on him.

Throwing that out there, stating that you think mneme is the goon, then you suggest we turn away from the goon to pick up on the GF. A last effort to try to keep him alive through one more day.

I'm leaving my vote on mneme because I'm sure that he's scum. I'm not 100% positive that you're scum, but I'd put it up at about 90%. If we lynch mneme, after we see his affiliation/role, I'll know for sure about you.

[distad]

EBWOP: By Q-man, I totally mean Xyzzy.

[distad]

Oh that's hot!

[distad]

Okay. So, it's pickem, battlemage, and myself, huh?

Hmmm...

So, there are three possible outcomes, as I see it.

1) We lynch the lyncher; town wins.
2) We lynch the target; lyncher wins.
3) We lynch the non-target townie; tie.

I'm nowhere near ready to make a decision on this one. I'm worried about both of you.

I'm leaning toward BM on this one. I read a lot of sincerity in PE's posts and I just get the feeling that BM is the lyncher. I will have to look through everything again. That's just where I am right now. My next readthrough will happen on Monday. I'm taking tomorrow off after a productive Friday/Saturday.

[distad]

Whoa... hold on there, professor...

I have not threatened a vote today. I have simply said that I'm leaning toward you. I am well away from deciding on a vote.

I don't have much of a read for if I'm the target or not. I, too, am not the lyncher. But, if I end up the target, my decision is pretty easy. At that point, if my vote is correct, we win. If it's incorrect, we tie. On the other hand, if I'm not the target, my vote is harder: win or lose.

The one thing I see going against Pick-Em is the early Mneme vote (Die Scum Die). It was SOO confident in a pretty tough predicament. Really, I wouldn't feel as confident with that vote, unless I KNEW that he wasn't the lyncher or the target. There's only one person with that knowledge... the lyncher. It's a good point, but not vote-worthy, yet.

[distad]

As for my comment/question in 32, I was giving you a hard time. But, it still needed to be mentioned, at least.

In that same span of posts, Pick-Em had a pretty aggressive bid on Piggy, as well.

I guess that I need to sit down and re-read again. Fortunately, we're not on page 20.

[distad]

Sorry, guys. I haven't gotten on that reread, yet. PE will be back around the 20th, so we have a little time to be patient.

I'll get through it by the weekend!

I'll also put together a vote-table like I did in our other game, BM.

[distad]

He said he was going to be away for 10 days. I'm still putting together the vote-table. I'm sick right now, so I don't have quite the same drive for this site...

[distad]

I'm concerned about this whole "set a trap" thing, Pick-Em... I know your posts tend to be a bit emotionally charged (for lack of better term), but I'm not sure where to go with this.

As for roles...

I'm not sure if I'm the target or not. When I went to -1 really quickly, PE unvoted. Now, it suggests that if he's the lyncher, I am not his target. Now, BM already had his vote on me, also... Knowing that one of you is the lyncher makes this tough. One of three situations arises: PE threw out a very town gambit there, hoping that it would come down to a situation like this; BM is PE's target and didn't want to falsely eliminate on D1; BM is the lyncher and I'm his target.

PE's move on page 1 alone makes me think he is town. However, I certainly can't vote BM yet because if BM is PE's target, it's easily game over.

For the record, I love this end-game scenario. Not only do we have to choose properly, even the lyncher has to get it right. Very different than if he's scum. Awesome!

[distad]

i dont understand what Pickem means about setting a trap. However i do have an idea. If we lynch the lyncher today, we win right? Well if we lynch the townie who ISN'T the lynchers target, we still win, i think. Because the lyncher won't be able to get a majority and lynch his target, thus he fails, and the town succeeds.
So basically, all we need to do, is make sure we don't kill the lynchers target. According to Distad, that makes PE the best play, as you claim that he is definitely not the target?
Of course i'm not too sure about that specifically, but i'm confident that we have some room to manouvre here.

BM

This is certainly interesting.

Hmm...

It's too early for me to vote, certainly... but that just set off soooo many alarms that you're the lyncher and PE is the target.

I need to go back and look at a few things again.

There really isn't much wiggle room at all...

[distad]

Did I? I think I just missed that in my list of possible outcomes.

Sincerely, though, please point out where I claimed it was impossible. I was thinking back trying to figure out why I didn't include it in my list of possible outcomes (in 150), and I couldn't find it. I think I dropped that ball.

I'd like to think my logic is infallible, but that has been proved wrong SO many times...

So, I have to figure out where that happened. Because the above-mentioned alarm went off on that 4th option that I didn't list.

[distad]

I still need to get on a vote-chart.

I'm sorry for the delay guys.

Also, BM - could you have a look at my previous post and help me find what I appear to be missing?

Thanks.

[distad]

yeah. And I recall having a reason to saying that there were only 3, but for the life of me, I can't figure out why I didn't include the 4th reason.

Assuming that I cannot eventually remember, I have to presume that the 4th reason is legitimate; in that case, your analysis set off that alarm.

Also, I don't believe that the town wins if we kill the non-target townie. The lyncher doesn't meet his objective, but the town doesn't either...

[distad]

I just finished a re-read, and I don't like it.

The dynamics of this game are very different. I look through trying to find a pairing between a couple of people, forgetting that the lyncher doesn't have a partner.

There are a couple of points where I think that I might be BM's target. He threw a few FoS's at me through the game. He also was part of the near quicklynch of me on P1. Now, he couldn't know that Piggy would be a dumbass and put me at -1, but he could have pulled his vote like PE after Piggy did vote. Still, it's all weak. I don't have much else going.

[distad]

I've compiled the votes and I'll put together the table over the next hour.

I have to find the downtime here at work.

[distad]

[mrow]Vote History[col]Day 1[col]Day 2Distad[col]BM mneme piggy unvote Piggy*[col]Q-man mneme* PickEm[col]Piggy Distad Unvote Piggy[col]mneme Battle Mage[col]mneme Distad PickEm mneme Unvote Piggy![col]PickEm mneme mneme![col]PickEm Piggy*[col]Qman* Unvote Qman Xyzzy[col][col] Piggy[col]BM PickEm Distad* mneme[col]
*- L-1 vote
! - Hammer

[distad]

And yes, that is correct... Qman/xyzzy never voted the whole game...

[distad]

I'm ready to vote. I'll give both of you guys an opportunity before I do so.

[distad]

I thought I had fixed it before posting it, but BM's vote on mneme was the hammer vote (!).

[distad]

Okay... I fixed it!

[mrow]Vote History[col]Day 1[col]Day 2Distad[col]BM mneme piggy unvote Piggy*[col]Q-man mneme* PickEm[col]Piggy Distad Unvote Piggy[col]mneme Battle Mage[col]mneme Distad PickEm mneme Unvote Piggy![col]PickEm mneme! mneme[col]PickEm Piggy*[col]Qman* Unvote Qman Xyzzy[col][col] Piggy[col]BM PickEm Distad* mneme[col]
*- L-1 vote
! - Hammer

[distad]

If you want to look at those two isolated instances totally out of context, yeah, it looks bad. But, considering the flow of the game also, they are both completely reasonable, IMHO.

I'll even be open about where I plan to vote. I'm looking at you, BM. I highly doubt that PE is the lyncher, now.
1) He unvoted quickly when I got to -1. This is either an incredibly cool move on his part or VERY town.
2) He has never voted you. Not once. Again, this would have to be an INCREDIBLY cool move on his part.

I understand your concern that I could be the lyncher, but it's not supported. My vote on you was in the random stage and I threw out a comment (note: NOT a vote) on your questioning the role, both very reasonable.

On the other hand, YOU voted for PE on D2. The only other votes from all 5 of us alive were on scum.

I said that I would wait for both of you to respond, but short of an admission, I can't figure what PE would say that would change my mind on this. Further, I think your 171 is just OMGUS.

Vote: BM

[distad]

BM - it's not like if there's a scum. There's a lyncher. And if he's the lyncher, now he will CERTAINLY be able to hit his target. So, if you're not convinced of PE, it's not a good reason to vote me (as opposed to if a scum was still alive) because he wouldn't win if I were his target.

This isn't an OMGUS. I've been talking about it for most of the day (look back).

I'm not worried, though. I'm convinced that PE is town. I know that I'm town. It has to be you.

(On the whole, though, you've played it really cool the whole game. This is strictly a process of elimination conclusion.)

[distad]

Nice. I got it right.

Given the vote history, I think the worst we can do is tie, now. If I'm BM's target, he played it very well. I still think that PE is his target, but his vote on me makes sense. He knows my vote is out there and that PE still has to vote. Voting for you even if you are his target is stupid, because you certainly would not vote for yourself, with the reasoning that a tie is better than a loss.

Think about this, PE. It makes sense. If I were the lyncher, I wouldn't have shown ANY inclination toward my target the whole game until we got to Day 3. On the other hand, BM has already voted for you on a day when EVERYONE else voted for only scum.

[distad]

But, somehow, if you feel that I'm the lyncher, please give me a chance to respond to any argument before you vote. I'll be around consistently over the next 15-30 minutes.

[distad]

Crap.

Man...

I was town.

[distad]

Man... I said WAIT. Look at the WHOLE day 3. I've been on him the WHOLE day.

Crap.

[distad]

Of course it made sense for him to vote me! He KNOWS you won't vote for yourself!!!

GUH!

[distad]

I started in 139, the FIRST post of D3.

[distad]

<sigh>

It's either a good tie, BM, or a great win.

[distad]

It was a good set up... and despite the final conclusion, I don't consider it a win on our part. Your vote for me was good. You couldn't vote for PE without making it SUPER obvious, and like I said earlier, he wouldn't vote for himself.

So, well done.