NY 178: MASQUERADE -- GAME OVER


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Post Post #7175 (ISO) » Sun Feb 08, 2015 9:06 am

Post by Thor665 »

I see and understand your stated logic, I disagree with it as 'the best shot' and have explained why.
I will agree that if you thought he was Wolf it was assuredly your best shot.
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Post Post #7176 (ISO) » Sun Feb 08, 2015 9:19 am

Post by beastcharizard »

I enjoyed this game. GG to all and thanks for Modding Aegor

I am content with how I played but I would appreciate people critiquing things I did. Like how to effective claim a role like mine. I know I fake claimed originally but I didn't want to flip and then everyone scream at me for fakeclaiming. The fear of everyone being mad I fake claimed out-weighed my presumed benefit from said fakeclaim. Also, I know my play annoyed at least 1 person in the game.
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Post Post #7177 (ISO) » Sun Feb 08, 2015 9:53 am

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I thought you played just fine, Beast. You won the 1v1 with Reinoe.
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Post Post #7178 (ISO) » Sun Feb 08, 2015 10:59 am

Post by goodmorning »

In post 7159, Thor665 wrote:Town deserved to lose after a Day 2 lynch of town?
Followed by 4 scum lynches in a row?

dave was obvTown. Lynching obvTown in a multiball game is very very bad of Town.

I agree that lack of crosskills was the main reason Town DID lose. Reason Town DESERVED the loss is a bit of a different thing.
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Post Post #7179 (ISO) » Sun Feb 08, 2015 12:23 pm

Post by AxleGreaser »

In post 7166, Thor665 wrote:What else do you think played a part?
Because 1/2 Vig kills and 4/7 Lynches being accurate and 2 stopped kills is *not* bad town play. Town, over 50% of the time, was dealing with scum.
9/9 Scum kills being on town, however, is fairly devastating. Scum, 100% of the time, was not cross killing in a game built to balance via cross kills.


The screwy thing about playing MB using mathematics of game theory is that it is a self balancing, super anti swing setup.
On occasions when town is doing as well as you describe, exactly how should scum adjust their shooting over their stock standard game plan?
More shots at the playing well team? Seems kind of obvious.
Town Kills, not cross kills: I don't like it, didn't want it, as it was not compatible with my win con, BUT I am pretty sure I cant actually fault the logic.
gg
Well shot.

That is the reason *I* wont, unless I mess up, be choosing to play an MB game again for rather quite some time.
Spoiler:
As people criticizing mods/setups is a thing that happens, the above is not. It is me; criticizing me for:
'The choice of games I replaced into and how well i chose a fit for my personal preferences.'

On that score: Any amount of I dun bad == my bad.


Scum, 100% of the time, was not cross killing in a game built to balance via cross kills.

That may be your understanding of the game balance setup, and as a static analysis it is IMO precisely true, on average scum will balance the game via cross kills. >HOWEVER< What they should do in specific cases, depends
not
on how the game is balanced pregame on setup but how it is playing out on the ground. Worse: it doesn't matter how the game is actually playing out it depends how scum thinks it is playing out with the information. Thus WW had an ace int he hole, whereas maf thought a 1T/1W/1M was possible win for maf, WW knew it wasn't.
Maf legitmately misunderstood they how deep the hole they were in was, if they hadn't managed to lynch WW they had to shoot them twice... and town wont lynch at 1v1v1... That misunderstanding biases scum shots towards the understandably inaccurately perceived danger of town.

A setup where Scum underestimating how much of threat the other team is, actually shifts the balance of the game against town a bit. Note actually giving both scum team really powerful roles so they know the other team is powerful major threat, somehow can effect the balance less as
seen in this game scum perceived game state (not the actual one, whatever it is) controls how much cross kill action there is.

You might think the above is me arguing against BP is MB scum teams... no....... I reckon the other scum team might have a BP we dont know about is really really good thing to have as a possibility in MB games. Imagine next time you are scum in such game... That is one of the problems you will need to worry about.
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Post Post #7180 (ISO) » Sun Feb 08, 2015 12:30 pm

Post by AxleGreaser »

In post 7168, T S O wrote:would put me to 1:1:1 Kingmaker...


Its not a king maker.

Town claims town and says,
<day start>

claim town

vote: nolynch


Have at it guys, feel free to shoot me, so as to aid the other guys win con.... :)


When playing to win con,... Both scum only have the choice of shooting at the most likely to be scum other guy and praying the other guy stiffs up and shoots the towny....

1v1v1 is not king maker.

Note scum do that too. Both scum claims town votes no lynch and tries to wifom the other guy into shooting the actual towny...

With informed players:
1v1v1 (without a BP) is decided in the shoot out not the lynch.

With derp, then as normal anything can happen.
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Post Post #7181 (ISO) » Sun Feb 08, 2015 1:01 pm

Post by Thor665 »

In post 7178, goodmorning wrote:dave was obvTown. Lynching obvTown in a multiball game is very very bad of Town.

I agree that lack of crosskills was the main reason Town DID lose. Reason Town DESERVED the loss is a bit of a different thing.

Was Dave obv. town to you the same way I was obv. scum? Don't mistake strength of your reads with accuracy as should be perceived by the entire game. His lynch wagon contained an expected random selection percentage of town/scum. it was not a scum driven wagon, and enough town supported it to not make it look like an insane wagon either - especially considering some of the other options that had been run up that day.

In post 7179, AxleGreaser wrote:On occasions when town is doing as well as you describe, exactly how should scum adjust their shooting over their stock standard game plan?
More shots at the playing well team? Seems kind of obvious.

I would agree - but at a time when Wolves were the faction doing the best, Mafia is on record as shooting for town on purpose. Twice.
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Post Post #7182 (ISO) » Sun Feb 08, 2015 1:10 pm

Post by AxleGreaser »

In post 7176, beastcharizard wrote:I am content with how I played but I would appreciate people critiquing things I did. Like how to effective claim a role like mine.


I came at you most hard about that...

>>>
post game truth
<<< AKA invoking trust tell that is illegal inside games....

I wasn't as convinced as i posted in the game thread.

As town: I wanted the can kicked so that if we lynched Reinoe as was always likely to happen no matter how hard i kicked your can, we would have words and interactions to try and guess what you really were if scum didn't shoot you.
So that was probably some aspect of my scum game. :). Running a wagon on someone who really might not have been quite my most likely to flip scum today.
I thought I was unlikely enough to get mislynched, I could take that risk.

As I stated in the game thread, if scum reckon say: Thread sentiment and Thor voting them at day start makes them terminal sometime soon... then fake claiming guilty on someone their team believes is probably scum from the other team is not a totally bad play. (event though I am somewhat strongly opposed to most/all gambits on principle) Hence I thought you being scum doing that was definitely worth exploring.

One of things I got by kicking your wagon did was make me pretty sure, that if sometime you flipped scum the gambit had not been your idea so Id be looking for an experienced partner...

Conversely: Days where nothing happens due to early claims of red checks don't yield much. Scum just get to roll out, their stock standard "yep I beleeve the red check/n
vote: redcheckedPlayers#1
" and if they are any good as scum at all there will be no tells at all that day.

Its also good to as town know how your role works, that tends to make me think you have had the role long enough to have PM'd the host any questions or clarifications you required.
Also hosts answer real questions about real roles more thoroughly than scum asking hosts for theoretical trolling info about possible roles.
That said , I think its statistical thing that scum often think out their fake claims better than townies think about their actual roles for some reason. ( I expect it is scum!fear leading to due diligence, vs town!empowerement leading to kicking back and phoning it in.) I still advocate as town knowing all about you role especially before claiming it.

If you want I could discuss some stuff in more detail by PM. I dont like ripping down the rational basis of a bad scum read on flipped town player in post game, I feels to much like I am telling you you were bad... when at least, my read was bad too?
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Post Post #7183 (ISO) » Sun Feb 08, 2015 1:16 pm

Post by Nero Cain »

In post 7178, goodmorning wrote:dave was obvTown. Lynching obvTown in a multiball game is very very bad of Town.

no offense to Dave but I'm a better player. Thor also has a point that a large number of town DID support his wagon.

but muffins modkill SHOULD have ended the day.
Of all tyrannies,a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end they do so with the approval of their own conscience.

edited c.s. lewis quote b/c limit
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Post Post #7184 (ISO) » Sun Feb 08, 2015 1:57 pm

Post by Scripten »

So this was one of my first times playing scum. Also first time in a large.

Anybody have thoughts for improvement of my game? (inb4 don't get scumread by town vig :P )
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Post Post #7185 (ISO) » Sun Feb 08, 2015 2:23 pm

Post by AxleGreaser »

In post 7184, Scripten wrote:So this was one of my first times playing scum. Also first time in a large.

Anybody have thoughts for improvement of my game? (inb4 don't get scumread by town vig :P )


I scum read you early D1. (as my first scum read...it also wasnt strong)
It didn't take long for me to think both TSO and Garmr looked scummier than you so that is not too bad for "first times playing scum."
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Post Post #7186 (ISO) » Sun Feb 08, 2015 4:11 pm

Post by beastcharizard »

In post 7182, AxleGreaser wrote:One of things I got by kicking your wagon did was make me pretty sure, that if sometime you flipped scum the gambit had not been your idea so Id be looking for an experienced partner...


I am more likely to think of a gambit and do it then to take advice to do a gambit. You aren't the first person to think that I was scum gambiting but that it wasn't my idea.

Also, dont' know if I said this in the dead thread but Aegor made me super paranoid about saying anything about my role because when I asked he mentioned to me not to break any of the rules.

I also know that I didn't do things the orthodox way and that obviously people are going to oppose it. It is part of how I play and people ALWAYS oppose me when I claim a guilty. It is 90% of the time town opposing me as well.

Also, I think I got the gist of what you were saying.
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Post Post #7187 (ISO) » Sun Feb 08, 2015 4:59 pm

Post by Garmr »

Just going to say I really did think axle was an opposing scum member eventually and I quit because he frustrated me lol.
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Post Post #7188 (ISO) » Sun Feb 08, 2015 5:12 pm

Post by goodmorning »

In post 7183, Nero Cain wrote:
In post 7178, goodmorning wrote:dave was obvTown. Lynching obvTown in a multiball game is very very bad of Town.

no offense to Dave but I'm a better player. Thor also has a point that a large number of town DID support his wagon.

Hmmmm for some reason I thought Flub was wagon#2 that day. Either way, dave lynch still sucked.

but muffins modkill SHOULD have ended the day.

I agree. Rule of thumb for modkills is that Day continues if Scum modkilled and ends if Town.
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Post Post #7189 (ISO) » Sun Feb 08, 2015 6:11 pm

Post by AxleGreaser »

In post 7187, Garmr wrote:Just going to say I really did think axle was an opposing scum member eventually and I quit because he frustrated me lol.



Well thats kind of hilarious in that while I do have mutliple ideas whats going on in my head, at least one of them was you were scum you were genuine in thinking I was scum, and the 1v1 was way out as lynching scum from the other team like that could get you town read even in MB. Its why I backed off that time, I figured towny Garmr wouldnt slow down and would see that as scum weakness, Scum Garmr would see it as escape. In my mind after that you claimed scum. As thor pointed out knowing who is scum is only a third of the problem.

About the the frustrating part.... yeah I should have frustrated you less. Sorry about that my head was busted as mentioned elsewhere.(I was doing stuff OCDly right in some sense that made sense in my head but not when i read it back, after you complained about it.... oops)

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Post Post #7190 (ISO) » Sun Feb 08, 2015 6:14 pm

Post by Garmr »

nah it's fine you did catch me through gg.
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Post Post #7191 (ISO) » Sun Feb 08, 2015 9:05 pm

Post by T S O »

In post 7180, AxleGreaser wrote:
In post 7168, T S O wrote:would put me to 1:1:1 Kingmaker...


Its not a king maker.

Town claims town and says,
<day start>

claim town

vote: nolynch


Have at it guys, feel free to shoot me, so as to aid the other guys win con.... :)


When playing to win con,... Both scum only have the choice of shooting at the most likely to be scum other guy and praying the other guy stiffs up and shoots the towny....

1v1v1 is not king maker.

Note scum do that too. Both scum claims town votes no lynch and tries to wifom the other guy into shooting the actual towny...

With informed players:
1v1v1 (without a BP) is decided in the shoot out not the lynch.

With derp, then as normal anything can happen.


It's a choice - but I'll grant you it's also possible.

But the point of me explaining this was saying that 3-man LyLo with 1 Mafia > 1:1:1, especially in the light of Pine's flip.
"i have the sickest grossest feeling that even if it's my lynch today, my townflip still won't lead to a tso lynch, and then he'll find some bullshit way to reason either shooting or lynching gm tomorrow because if there's anyone who can strongarm a mislynch despite his reads or cases being proved wrong time and again it's tso"
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Post Post #7192 (ISO) » Mon Feb 09, 2015 4:56 am

Post by Slandaar »

Town didn't play well but got dragged along by the hugely unbalanced setup and when that failed and they had to actually scumhunt they lost. Reviewers were high when they decided to look at this setup.

All the wolf kills were phenomenal and could not be optimised any further :] (even Ane who wasn't a PR - logic behind it still seems really good)

Mafia kills seemed fine.

Good job mafias and TSO.

Love you Pine!

Garmr you should have stayed :(

Thor, really, you need to look at other peoples perspectives on things. You need to assess people on their interpretation and meaning not the interpretation and meaning you intended unless you correct them. If you correct them don't then ask why they asked the question when the answer is they were using their interpretation and meaning. You did it with PV (badly) You did it with me also. I am fairly sure you were doing it on D2 also.

Think that is everything. Later.
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Post Post #7193 (ISO) » Mon Feb 09, 2015 5:12 am

Post by Shiro »

Slandaar-senpai what was I doing wrong when I was pushing you D:


This being my first big game I had lots of fun dunno if it was a good game or not cause I lack experience but regardless it was fun glad I read anen message and replaced in xD
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Post Post #7194 (ISO) » Mon Feb 09, 2015 5:38 am

Post by T S O »

I rather agree with Slandaar here, to be honest.
"i have the sickest grossest feeling that even if it's my lynch today, my townflip still won't lead to a tso lynch, and then he'll find some bullshit way to reason either shooting or lynching gm tomorrow because if there's anyone who can strongarm a mislynch despite his reads or cases being proved wrong time and again it's tso"
-Marquis
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Post Post #7195 (ISO) » Mon Feb 09, 2015 8:51 am

Post by Garmr »

I promise I'll sat the next one slandaar gives puppy eyes.
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Post Post #7196 (ISO) » Mon Feb 09, 2015 9:00 am

Post by Aneninen »

TSO, just one question.

Did you deathtunnel me because of my read on you and Csareo? ^_^
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Post Post #7197 (ISO) » Mon Feb 09, 2015 9:09 am

Post by Nero Cain »

In post 7192, Slandaar wrote:Town didn't play well

sour grapes.

I think past day 2 (and maybe day 3) town played pretty well.
Of all tyrannies,a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end they do so with the approval of their own conscience.

edited c.s. lewis quote b/c limit
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Post Post #7198 (ISO) » Mon Feb 09, 2015 9:38 am

Post by T S O »

In post 7196, Aneninen wrote:TSO, just one question.

Did you deathtunnel me because of my read on you and Csareo? ^_^


Eh, yeah, kinda. Like, I also had reasons to do it, but I think I needed to discredit you firstly.
"i have the sickest grossest feeling that even if it's my lynch today, my townflip still won't lead to a tso lynch, and then he'll find some bullshit way to reason either shooting or lynching gm tomorrow because if there's anyone who can strongarm a mislynch despite his reads or cases being proved wrong time and again it's tso"
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Post Post #7199 (ISO) » Mon Feb 09, 2015 9:40 am

Post by T S O »

I agree with Slandaar that Thor's saying scum shooting was terrible was wrong - the proof was this was that at 6 alive 3 were scum. If bad shooting gets you to that scenario, I need to do it a lot more.
"i have the sickest grossest feeling that even if it's my lynch today, my townflip still won't lead to a tso lynch, and then he'll find some bullshit way to reason either shooting or lynching gm tomorrow because if there's anyone who can strongarm a mislynch despite his reads or cases being proved wrong time and again it's tso"
-Marquis
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