NY 178: MASQUERADE -- GAME OVER


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Post Post #6275 (ISO) » Sat Jan 10, 2015 2:01 am

Post by Nero Cain »

For town to win it still relies on getting a crosskill. I've been thinking this for awhile now that Boon is wolf and is against a no lynch 'cause a no lynch helps town more than it does wolves.
Of all tyrannies,a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end they do so with the approval of their own conscience.

edited c.s. lewis quote b/c limit
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Post Post #6276 (ISO) » Sat Jan 10, 2015 2:05 am

Post by Nero Cain »

vote:Boon
Of all tyrannies,a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end they do so with the approval of their own conscience.

edited c.s. lewis quote b/c limit
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Post Post #6277 (ISO) » Sat Jan 10, 2015 4:45 am

Post by T S O »

In post 6270, Thor665 wrote:
In post 6256, T S O wrote:Mafia would have had a 2/3 chance of shooting a Wolf - now Wolf has a 1/3 chance of shooting Mafia.

It's worse than it was.

Except you're forgetting the wolf shot in the above.


What?

With a town lynch today and Pine lying about being Mafia, it's 2-2-1.
Mafia shoot confwolf (to them) Pine, leaving it 2-1-1 before the Wolf shot.
The Wolves have 2 players on their team, leaving a pool of 3 out of 5 people to shoot.
2 of these people are town, 1 is the Mafia.
If Town are shot we autolose.

What exactly am I missing here ...?
"i have the sickest grossest feeling that even if it's my lynch today, my townflip still won't lead to a tso lynch, and then he'll find some bullshit way to reason either shooting or lynching gm tomorrow because if there's anyone who can strongarm a mislynch despite his reads or cases being proved wrong time and again it's tso"
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Post Post #6278 (ISO) » Sat Jan 10, 2015 4:47 am

Post by T S O »

In post 6273, Nero Cain wrote:I'm going to go watch a movie and be back later but just quickly I think exactly one of Boon/Thor is scum and my guess is Boon.

Leaving the other 2 scum in TSO/Pine/Slandaar. Both Pine and TSO are pretty scummy but if TSO were scum he'd be mafia so we aren't going to lynch him.

My preferred lynch list is Boon or no lynch.


So, I got one teammate force-replaced and bussed the other yesterday instead of Pine, a completely viable alternative. Yes, that makes perfect sense.

Please don't let your hatred of me randomly cloud your eyes to the fact I'm town. I'm doing it with you.
"i have the sickest grossest feeling that even if it's my lynch today, my townflip still won't lead to a tso lynch, and then he'll find some bullshit way to reason either shooting or lynching gm tomorrow because if there's anyone who can strongarm a mislynch despite his reads or cases being proved wrong time and again it's tso"
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Post Post #6279 (ISO) » Sat Jan 10, 2015 4:48 am

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Can you also please explain why you think Boonskiies is scum, why only 1 of Boon/Thor is scum, and why you'll lynch Boon but you won't lynch Pine.

Just explain everything in 6273, actually.
"i have the sickest grossest feeling that even if it's my lynch today, my townflip still won't lead to a tso lynch, and then he'll find some bullshit way to reason either shooting or lynching gm tomorrow because if there's anyone who can strongarm a mislynch despite his reads or cases being proved wrong time and again it's tso"
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Post Post #6280 (ISO) » Sat Jan 10, 2015 6:51 am

Post by Pine »

Boon was crazy scummy up until he put the brakes on following my gambit. He reacted Mafiaish to it
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Post Post #6281 (ISO) » Sat Jan 10, 2015 7:26 am

Post by T S O »

I still feel it's Thor/Pine - but I'm wary of Slandaar.
"i have the sickest grossest feeling that even if it's my lynch today, my townflip still won't lead to a tso lynch, and then he'll find some bullshit way to reason either shooting or lynching gm tomorrow because if there's anyone who can strongarm a mislynch despite his reads or cases being proved wrong time and again it's tso"
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Post Post #6282 (ISO) » Sat Jan 10, 2015 7:27 am

Post by T S O »

If we lynch a Wolf today, we can win this in the Night. Even if that doesn't happen, we still should get the chance to win in 3-man LyLo unless scum shoot really badly.
"i have the sickest grossest feeling that even if it's my lynch today, my townflip still won't lead to a tso lynch, and then he'll find some bullshit way to reason either shooting or lynching gm tomorrow because if there's anyone who can strongarm a mislynch despite his reads or cases being proved wrong time and again it's tso"
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Post Post #6283 (ISO) » Sat Jan 10, 2015 7:28 am

Post by T S O »

In post 6235, T S O wrote:
In post 4199, Thor665 wrote:
In post 2532, Thor665 wrote:Hey, GM, I'm keeping you in mind.

Crumb.

Not that this should come as a shock since besides claiming VT when being a scum PR - the only thing I ever lie about in claims is alignment.


I was thinking about this.

It makes perfect sense for Thor to be an Odd-Night Roleblocker with this claim as scum. He quite probably -did- block goodmorning with this. It's a clever claim because if someone had used their PR on him, it would seem like he was telling the truth, yet blocking goodmorning had scum motivation because gm was sure he was scum.

And, as well as that, it ties in brilliantly with the set-up - because reinoe, flipped Mafia, was an Even-Night Roleblocker.


Can we discuss this? Because I want to.
"i have the sickest grossest feeling that even if it's my lynch today, my townflip still won't lead to a tso lynch, and then he'll find some bullshit way to reason either shooting or lynching gm tomorrow because if there's anyone who can strongarm a mislynch despite his reads or cases being proved wrong time and again it's tso"
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Post Post #6284 (ISO) » Sat Jan 10, 2015 8:48 am

Post by Slandaar »

In post 6185, Thor665 wrote:It's called percentages - when 7 people (1/3 of all voters) are voting someone (an 8th player who is not Mafia) - then, yes, I would expect Mafia to be on that wagon.
So...do you not do wagon analysis or do you do it in some alternate way? Becausse I'm pretty sure my way is the "standard" way or at least close to it. What's your method?

My method is to think about the motivation the scum have at the time to vote the wagons. What is the motivation for mafia to make the seventh vote on PV? if they think PV is town there isn't one.
In post 6185, Thor665 wrote:Yes I did? This is empty.

Show.
In post 6185, Thor665 wrote:Yeah - totally a story change...

Yep. Nice to see you agree.
In post 6185, Thor665 wrote:Scum either shot for town, which was bad play.
Or they shot for scum by shooting fairly town looking slots, which was bad play.
Ergo - scum is playing badly - which is what I somewhat implied when I called them "lackwits" which is not meant as a compliment of their play.
No matter which way you approach it - scum shot dumb last night.

You keep saying this but I don't know why.

As we have covered originally this is not what you said. I asked you about your original post you replied implying everything was fine I called this suboptimal and then you were like "WELL ACTUALLY READ QUOTE ABOVE THAT IS WHAT I MEANT AND ALSO WHAT IS SUBOPTIMAL? VALUE CALLING? LOL".
In post 6185, Thor665 wrote:Well - I have called Boon scum, so he's certainly a slot I'm eyeing. Also, Flubber shows that bussing was happening, so I'm not sure why you have a question mark behind it (again, unless you meant wolves - but then what bussing are you talking about even on a theoretical level?)?

I was asking where the unknown mafia was obviously as the VC was much more interesting than the one you produced as it's a much more high pressure situation.
In post 6185, Thor665 wrote:
You say this like it's owning my face on some point - what point do you think you're owning me on? Calling Pine scum? I've been doing that for a few days now - both real and game, so...?
I don't feel like we're talking with each other here - I feel like I've missed an entire sub conversation/debate of which this is a crowning culmination post to - clarify?

I just thought it was amusing as I found your use of it laughable. It was an Ironic use.
In post 6186, Thor665 wrote:Or is it you're trying to sell me that Josh is Mafia?
Nah - I find that unlikely, his play works fine for Wolf and, in my opinion, moreso than Mafia.

You are not alone in this thought apparently. Perhaps you can help me understand this viewpoint?
In post 6192, Thor665 wrote:@Slandaar - in and amongst your derp debate, talk to me about why you think Pine is Mafia and not Wolf. I am very much of the opposite opinion.

Well a brief summary as time is short: Script didn't look like bus + being quiet during Reinoe wagon + little VCA.
In post 6263, Pine wrote:I'm not Mafia (still VT). I was trying to draw out a Mafia soft-counterclaim while gauging potential Wolf bloodthirstiness

What I will say about this is it is somewhat what I suspected. Mafia can't actually claim and stick to their claim of mafia today. I need to think about it though.

Will be back tomorrow with lots of time.
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Post Post #6285 (ISO) » Sat Jan 10, 2015 9:25 am

Post by Thor665 »

In post 6271, Boonskiies wrote:Have TSO/Slandaar/Nero claimed? I think it may be beneficial if they did.

I would support this.

In post 6273, Nero Cain wrote:I'm going to go watch a movie and be back later but just quickly I think exactly one of Boon/Thor is scum and my guess is Boon.

?

In post 6273, Nero Cain wrote:if TSO were scum he'd be mafia

??

In post 6273, Nero Cain wrote:My preferred lynch list is Boon or no lynch.

???

In post 6274, Boonskiies wrote:No lynching leaves this game way up to chance. We aren't no lynching. It's Thor or Pine.

Why is it Thor or Pine? I keep asking you this and I don't feel like you're answering.

In post 6277, T S O wrote:
In post 6270, Thor665 wrote:
In post 6256, T S O wrote:Mafia would have had a 2/3 chance of shooting a Wolf - now Wolf has a 1/3 chance of shooting Mafia.

It's worse than it was.

Except you're forgetting the wolf shot in the above.


What?
[smip]
What exactly am I missing here ...?

In the first example where you're touting it as 'better' - you're forgetting the wolf shot.
Neither situation is good for us.
Literally the only thing that matters for town today is lynching a wolf - every other option is bad or worse. Nothing has changed that.

In post 6283, T S O wrote:
In post 6235, T S O wrote:
In post 4199, Thor665 wrote:
In post 2532, Thor665 wrote:Hey, GM, I'm keeping you in mind.

Crumb.

Not that this should come as a shock since besides claiming VT when being a scum PR - the only thing I ever lie about in claims is alignment.


I was thinking about this.

It makes perfect sense for Thor to be an Odd-Night Roleblocker with this claim as scum. He quite probably -did- block goodmorning with this. It's a clever claim because if someone had used their PR on him, it would seem like he was telling the truth, yet blocking goodmorning had scum motivation because gm was sure he was scum.

And, as well as that, it ties in brilliantly with the set-up - because reinoe, flipped Mafia, was an Even-Night Roleblocker.


Can we discuss this? Because I want to.

What is there to discuss?
Is your theory that Boon is town and paired with a JOAT with a commute qualifies as the defensive side of the town? My role makes immense sense balance wise as town - why do you disagree and think scum overall had an every day roleblock versus limited targeting town?

In post 6284, Slandaar wrote:What I will say about this is it is somewhat what I suspected. Mafia can't actually claim and stick to their claim of mafia today. I need to think about it though.

Will be back tomorrow with lots of time.

Why is it you can play 20 derp itimized responses to me but can't comment on the gamestate?
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Post Post #6286 (ISO) » Sat Jan 10, 2015 9:47 am

Post by Nero Cain »

In post 6285, Thor665 wrote:[quote="In .
In post 6273, Nero Cain wrote:I'm going to go watch a movie and be back later but just quickly I think exactly one of Boon/Thor is scum and my guess is Boon.

?

You think we have 4 town prs? I think a 1 shot jk would actully make more sense than a 2 shot BP.


In post 6273, Nero Cain wrote:if TSO were scum he'd be mafia

??

The way that scripten tried to play mediator between me and TSO makes me think non wolf and the non wolf scum faction is mafia.


In post 6273, Nero Cain wrote:My preferred lynch list is Boon or no lynch.
???

Well I think Boon is scum. The way he's pushing to lynch ALMOST anyone and is against a no lynch (which I think actually greatly benefits town) looks like scum that's about to win and a no lynch hurts them.

So why did/do I think no lynch is a good viable option? Town can't win unless we get a crosskill and a nl gives mafia a slightly larger chance of hitting wolf than town. If we lynch town or mafia its a wolf win and town would also have a better chance of getting shit right.
Of all tyrannies,a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end they do so with the approval of their own conscience.

edited c.s. lewis quote b/c limit
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Post Post #6287 (ISO) » Sat Jan 10, 2015 10:08 am

Post by T S O »

Slandaar, when you come in here and only continue an argument with Thor and then leave, it doesn't help. At all. It makes me think you are scum happy to watch us tear ourselves apart.
"i have the sickest grossest feeling that even if it's my lynch today, my townflip still won't lead to a tso lynch, and then he'll find some bullshit way to reason either shooting or lynching gm tomorrow because if there's anyone who can strongarm a mislynch despite his reads or cases being proved wrong time and again it's tso"
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Post Post #6288 (ISO) » Sat Jan 10, 2015 10:09 am

Post by T S O »

In post 5973, T S O wrote:TSO: VT Neighbour
Pine: VT
Nero: VT Neighbour
Thor: 1-shot JK Neighbour
Slandaar: ??
Boonskiies: 2-shot BP Neighbour


You're welcome, Thor.
"i have the sickest grossest feeling that even if it's my lynch today, my townflip still won't lead to a tso lynch, and then he'll find some bullshit way to reason either shooting or lynching gm tomorrow because if there's anyone who can strongarm a mislynch despite his reads or cases being proved wrong time and again it's tso"
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Post Post #6289 (ISO) » Sat Jan 10, 2015 10:09 am

Post by Boonskiies »

No lynch doesn't benefit town at all. If wolves shoot mafia, and mafia shoots town, wolves auto win.
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Post Post #6290 (ISO) » Sat Jan 10, 2015 11:06 am

Post by Thor665 »

In post 6286, Nero Cain wrote:You think we have 4 town prs?

Considering 1 scum team had 2 PRs and, presumably, so does the other one, and multi faction - yeah, 4 PRs hardly seems off to me.
Also, wouldn't that be 5? JOAT, Vig, JKer, BP, Cop.

In post 6286, Nero Cain wrote:The way that scripten tried to play mediator between me and TSO makes me think non wolf and the non wolf scum faction is mafia.

I actually do not dislike this logic - what do you think of TSO's stance that he is not Mafia as he expressed a few posts back in reply to you?
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Post Post #6291 (ISO) » Sat Jan 10, 2015 11:09 am

Post by Thor665 »

I actually believe Pine that he isn't Mafia because he's not a neighbor.
That strengthens my Wolf read on him though.

Boon and TSO are unlikely partners, and I'm getting sold on the TSo not wolf theory Nero is selling, which would also make Nero not Wolf (or Wolf with TSo which I don't particularly buy)

Pine/Slandaar wolf?
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Post Post #6292 (ISO) » Sat Jan 10, 2015 11:09 am

Post by Thor665 »

Who townreads Slandaar or has a case for him to not be Mafia or not be Wolf?
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Post Post #6293 (ISO) » Sat Jan 10, 2015 11:11 am

Post by Boonskiies »

VOTE: Pine

Well, now that we know he's not mafia...
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Post Post #6294 (ISO) » Sat Jan 10, 2015 11:13 am

Post by Thor665 »

I still have questions outstanding to you about your reads Boonie - if you are town I am beginning to just sort of loathe how you play.
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Post Post #6295 (ISO) » Sat Jan 10, 2015 11:13 am

Post by Thor665 »

In post 6285, Thor665 wrote:
In post 6274, Boonskiies wrote:No lynching leaves this game way up to chance. We aren't no lynching. It's Thor or Pine.

Why is it Thor or Pine? I keep asking you this and I don't feel like you're answering.
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Post Post #6296 (ISO) » Sat Jan 10, 2015 11:17 am

Post by T S O »

Boon, you are so incredibly trigger happy. Like, I thought you were enthusiastic town, but I'm starting to think you're Wolf and you want the game over.
"i have the sickest grossest feeling that even if it's my lynch today, my townflip still won't lead to a tso lynch, and then he'll find some bullshit way to reason either shooting or lynching gm tomorrow because if there's anyone who can strongarm a mislynch despite his reads or cases being proved wrong time and again it's tso"
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Post Post #6297 (ISO) » Sat Jan 10, 2015 11:18 am

Post by Boonskiies »

It's thor or pine, because I am town reading T S O, and I think Nero is mafia.
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Post Post #6298 (ISO) » Sat Jan 10, 2015 11:19 am

Post by Boonskiies »

I am enthusiastic town. This is no different than how i usually play as town. I get the "why you voting in mylo?!?!?" speech quite often.
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Post Post #6299 (ISO) » Sat Jan 10, 2015 11:20 am

Post by T S O »

One of Thor or Boon has to be scum, and here's why:

There are 3 Neighbourhoods -
5 player - Anen, goodmorning, Izariael, Shiro, Boon
4p - Scripten, dave, TSO, Nero
3p - Egg, Thor, Pere

I don't think that both the 5 -and- the 3 player hoods were all town. One of Thor and Boon is scum.
"i have the sickest grossest feeling that even if it's my lynch today, my townflip still won't lead to a tso lynch, and then he'll find some bullshit way to reason either shooting or lynching gm tomorrow because if there's anyone who can strongarm a mislynch despite his reads or cases being proved wrong time and again it's tso"
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