NY 178: MASQUERADE -- GAME OVER

[Thor665]

you and pine are wolves together. that's the issue.

Yes - anyone could be partners to Pine - how is that an issue specifically for me?

I'll make it nice and easy to understand, Thor.

Okay.

Pine could be Wolf, or could be Mafia.
Pine has claimed Mafia today, but we have to lynch a Wolf. Therefore, we can't lynch Pine if Pine's telling the truth or we lose.
However, Pine could be lying, and could be a Wolf - making our odds of lynching a Wolf quite low.
A silly man called Thor665 is auto-clearing Pine, because no-one has counterclaimed Pine's Mafia claim yet.
He does not understand that counterclaiming would be suicide for the Mafia player, and so there will not be a counterclaim.
Because there won't be a counterclaim, this means that Pine has been cleared, for nothing, with no proof.

1. Yes.
2. Yes.
3. Yes.
4. Yes.
5. Okay?
6. Yes.

What's the issue though?
Because as far as I can tell, the only way your fear matters (no mafia counterclaim and Pne is Wolf) is if we lynch Mafia - and if we start to lynch Mafia I am willing to wager we will get a Mafia counterclaim.

So...what's the issue?
How is this bad for town?

[Thor665]

I understand how it is frustrating if you are Mafia and now you know Pine is a Wolf, but besides that I don't understand why you are not okay with this.

[Boonskiies]

you and pine are wolves together. that's the issue.

Yes - anyone could be partners to Pine - how is that an issue specifically for me?

I'll make it nice and easy to understand, Thor.

Okay.

Pine could be Wolf, or could be Mafia.
Pine has claimed Mafia today, but we have to lynch a Wolf. Therefore, we can't lynch Pine if Pine's telling the truth or we lose.
However, Pine could be lying, and could be a Wolf - making our odds of lynching a Wolf quite low.
A silly man called Thor665 is auto-clearing Pine, because no-one has counterclaimed Pine's Mafia claim yet.
He does not understand that counterclaiming would be suicide for the Mafia player, and so there will not be a counterclaim.
Because there won't be a counterclaim, this means that Pine has been cleared, for nothing, with no proof.

1. Yes.
2. Yes.
3. Yes.
4. Yes.
5. Okay?
6. Yes.

What's the issue though?
Because as far as I can tell, the only way your fear matters (no mafia counterclaim and Pne is Wolf) is if we lynch Mafia - and if we start to lynch Mafia I am willing to wager we will get a Mafia counterclaim.

So...what's the issue?
How is this bad for town?

Is this a wolf slip I smell? How can he have a partner if you believe he's mafia?

[T S O]

I understand how it is frustrating if you are Mafia and now you know Pine is a Wolf, but besides that I don't understand why you are not okay with this.

So, let's say we lynch town.

It's now 2-2-1 with Pine confirmed Wolf.

Mafia shoots Pine, Pine's team shoot ??? out of three people.

If Pine's team hit town, it's 1-1-1 and town automatically lose. We're basically relying on the Werewolf team to keep us in the game.

[Thor665]

@Boon - I also, in that same post, agreed with TSO that Pine could be lying. So if it's a slip I did it at least twice.

@TSO - Yes, we would be relying on the Werewolf team to keep us in the game if we lynch town today. Just like, prior to Pine's claim, we would have been counting on Mafia to do it if we lynched town. Town has not been in good shape for some time - I don't see why a possible town loss changes the optimal town play for the day though?

[T S O]

And it's cute you calling me Mafia, but I'm the one who's least likely to be Mafia here.

[T S O]

@Boon - I also, in that same post, agreed with TSO that Pine could be lying. So if it's a slip I did it at least twice.

@TSO - Yes, we would be relying on the Werewolf team to keep us in the game if we lynch town today. Just like, prior to Pine's claim, we would have been counting on Mafia to do it if we lynched town. Town has not been in good shape for some time - I don't see why a possible town loss changes the optimal town play for the day though?

Mafia would have had a 2/3 chance of shooting a Wolf - now Wolf has a 1/3 chance of shooting Mafia.

It's worse than it was.

[Boonskiies]

either way, Thor or Pine have to be lynched toDay I feel.

[T S O]

Oh, goddamn it, I don't know, I fucking need to grill Pine or something to get some answers

[Boonskiies]

I wish NERO would post.

[Boonskiies]

unvote

let me analyze again....ugh.

[T S O]

either way, Thor or Pine have to be lynched toDay I feel.

Can you run me through the succession of events around your claim, Boon? I can't remember them.

[Boonskiies]

Uhm...day 1, i epic implied I had a PR. night 1 Izariael seemed super suspicious, so i tried to lure a NK. day 2 i came in thinking I was shot or never was going to be shot, so i just ended up claiming my role. that's the basis, I think. It was a long time ago, haha.

[Pine]

I'm not Mafia (still VT). I was trying to draw out a Mafia soft-counterclaim while gauging potential Wolf bloodthirstiness

Thor has more or less claimed Wolf at this point. I am a little less confident in my Boonskies!Wolf read now. He could be Mafia (that instant NO YOU AREN'T and subsequent backpedal, but 2-shot BP in addition to the roleblock/rolecop we've seen doesn't make sense) but I don't give a shit about Mafia today. That's for the Wolves to puzzle out, and Town to deal with if we survive the night

So, the matter of Thor's partner. It's still not TSO, as much as his extreme interest in the Mafia kills and QT might make me want to think. That leaves Nero Cain and Slandaar, though Boon is still an option I suppose

Unvote
Vote Thor

[Boonskiies]

I'm willing to believe it's Thor and Slandaar. I'm not voting yet, though.

[T S O]

I have no idea how to take this. None.

I'm going to bed, hopefully my brain will work in the morning.

[T S O]

Mod: requesting immediate prod or force-replacement of Nero - this activity level is crazy.

[Pine]

Seconded. I'd prefer a good hard prod to a force-replace, nurturing a replacement at this stage would be nuts

[Boonskiies]

Thirded. Replacement will be detrimental I feel.

[Aegor]

Votecount 5.3

[2]

Thor665:

T S O, Pine

[4]

Not Voting:

Nero Cain, Slandaar, Thor665, Boonskiies

With 6 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.

Day 5 deadline:

(expired on 2015-01-18 06:06:44)

Mod Notes

Nero Cain has been prodded.

[Thor665]

Mafia would have had a 2/3 chance of shooting a Wolf - now Wolf has a 1/3 chance of shooting Mafia.

It's worse than it was.

Except you're forgetting the wolf shot in the above.
It is not worse.

I'm not Mafia (still VT). I was trying to draw out a Mafia soft-counterclaim while gauging potential Wolf bloodthirstiness

Thor has more or less claimed Wolf at this point.

How did I do that - specifically?
By not being bloodthirsty about you?

Nero Cain has been prodded.

[Boonskiies]

I think Pine's mafia. I don't think this setup has more than two VT's. Have TSO/Slandaar/Nero claimed? I think it may be beneficial if they did.

[Boonskiies]

I think Pine's

mafia

WOLF

. I don't think this setup has more than two VT's. Have TSO/Slandaar/Nero claimed? I think it may be beneficial if they did.

was thinking the word scum and mafia, yeah...I do NOT think he's mafia. I repeat. I do NOT think he is mafia.

[Nero Cain]

I'm going to go watch a movie and be back later but just quickly I think exactly one of Boon/Thor is scum and my guess is Boon.

Leaving the other 2 scum in TSO/Pine/Slandaar. Both Pine and TSO are pretty scummy but if TSO were scum he'd be mafia so we aren't going to lynch him.

My preferred lynch list is Boon or no lynch.

[Boonskiies]

No lynching leaves this game way up to chance. We aren't no lynching. It's Thor or Pine.