NY 178: MASQUERADE -- GAME OVER

[AxleGreaser]

If

the host generates the scum and the hoods randomly then, the number of people you have seen flipped in the hood has absolutely no impact on whether the next one is scum too.

yes indeed I wrote that

If

. I even wrote it on purpose as that is required prior assumption. (I didn't make it big tho) Do you have point?

Spoiler: Lots of words i didnt say before (but thought)

Do you for instance know that

if

the mods dont do it random, whether mods bias that one way or the other?
(becuase in orderto discuss it without the

if

we need an estimate of that.
I imagine many mods with little formal training in math and stats would if they chose the hood scum layout would pick all scum and all town hoods less often that random would dictate.(footnote 1)
(see balance problems I think I described of having a quasi list check by having fixed ratio scum/town hoods)
Yet other mods tired of having, players play against their setup via setup spec, instead of playing mafia against the other players, might just choose biased the other way(as payback? to make it interesting?).
However: My best bet is the first type are more prevalent than the second. (do you have different bet, guess, factual basis?)

Thus the conditional probability is that in this game (no ifs, just my wild guesses now) there is better than random (but not absolute) chance that the less likely patterns of all town (lots of scum) in larger hoods, are even less likely than chance alone would dictate.
Thus there is

small

marginal increased chance that as each towny flips in large hood that one of the remainder is scum.
(however if we get to the last person in a 5 man hood and still no scum that does not make the last one scum for sure at all...)(not unless you have lots of site meta to prove that, and that this host does not buck site meta.)

Was that your point? (that took more (too many) words so I didn't say that the first time. I assumed every body that knew the math already knew that bit. k.)

or do you have some other point?

people do actually alignment indicative things like claim roles

how are claiming roles "alignment indicative"?

The following is my standard position on power roles. (aka what I always think, before after and during games... IIRC it was my view before I ever played my first game.)
I guess that was actually raw cynicism, about players using roles as crutches instead of playing the game. Where they don't really play the game, then when under pressure simply claim (2 shot BP, or even night cop), then make claims like "I got town rolling" (NO the rng assignment did that when it gave you a role...), start claimign they are now confirmed town, and all the other things I have seen people, 1 play badly, 2 claim a role, 3 then look smug, do.

I just went and read the whole post and yeah it does not jive as well with what I write above as I would expect it too, I think that is because it is making a different point.

I expect, my point was that hood membership is even LESS alignment indicative than role claims.

Here is and Example of role claims probably being significantly alignment indicative.

Beast claimed even night cop && Reinoe claimed even night cop

While its possible (

If

both players are bad enough) that both are town...
that hopefully is unlikely.

So their claims are alignment indicative?

(note beast also claimed red check. yes i have seen town cops fake red checks... Ive seen lots of bad stuff (some significant fraction of that on other sites)
but just the claim and CC are alignment indicative due to balance.
)

Is there a scum hunting related point to this question I am missing?

Spoiler: footnotes

1 (its standard well know bias in lay people to assume the number sequence 31 41 51 is not random and has 1's as every even digit, and a counting pattern in the odd. or its counting by tens, or... Mathematicians know of other explanations some random, some not. When used correctly that sequence is in fact rather good source of pseudo random numbers. (LOL)(no really it is: honest. )
(here are some later ones from the same sequence)
52 98 34 91 87 40 78 66 80 88 18 33 85 10 22 83 34 50 85 04 86 08 25 03 93 02 13 32 19 71 55 18 43 06 35 45 50 07 66
(@Mod and rules lawyers: The above is provably information free (has the same information content as 31 41 51) and is not a code, I swear on my mums apple pie!)

[AxleGreaser]

I'm conflicted about this, even though I normally just go with the first claim and really want to do so here as well.

There are things to be conflicted about.
Beast not answering my questions is one.
That looks shifty to me.

Liars in RL (and scum in mafia) really like the guy asking the question to put all their cards on the table as it makes making up the excuse(next lie) easier.

Townies are actually playing the game and looking for scum (well they are meant to be doing that as they signed up to play, and playing to wincon is meant to be a thing)
Townies can answer questions about what they were thinking and doing, because they were thinking and doing.
It may depending on the player be wrong, bad, or other things, but they were doing that.
Scum have to make stuff up.
That is risky, they naturally resist, and if they dont they get caught.
Catch 22.
Self awareness of that meta does not matter. (hence axles exception to Muffins law)

[AxleGreaser]

EBWOP

to recent footnote: mea culpa I fsked up. The first of number sequence is 31 41 5? . oops blush. bad Axle. Dumb Axle. meh.

[Shiro]

Best is avoiding answering anything really.(still hasnt explained how scripten vote on cho make me scum) (or post the post for that matter axl did)
Beast since you apparenly were faking being behind why did u vote dave? why was reinoe a scum read at the time in order to make him worth investigating over other people ?

[reinoe]

My play from yesterday was me being under the scum kill radar so that I could inspect someone.

Why are you active lurking now?

Tue Nov 25, 2014 7:54 pm

Could someone voting me explain how beast's play this game is town?

Ugh can't believe this shit. Somebody who's voting me xplain how beasts play this game is town.

]The above is why you don't phone post between calls.

I'm gonna just scum-hunt when I get home.

--->But I'll point out Beast's remarkable silence after fake-claiming.<---

Tue Nov 25, 2014 8:10 pm

I was at work when I claimed thank you very much. You are scum and everyone knows it. Also, I explain why I played the way I did. I have mad a lurky doing nothing meta for myself as town lately so I thought this would be the perfect time to see if I could do that and survive as a PR. So yesterday I pretended to be behind and be useless.

If yall need to lynch me first to see that reinoe is scum then so be it. Not like I am going to get another chance to inspect someone anyway

.

Total elapsed time 16 minutes after being called out. Not a record but a good hard try. With a little more F5 refreshing you could have had that record for most rapid appearance after being called out for lurking.

[beastcharizard]

Reinoe, I am not active lurking. It is freaking thanksgiving week so I am busier than normal. I will get to stuff when I get to it.

[AxleGreaser]

I would like to request that if there is a vig they don't kill me. I haven't had a chance to do anything yet and I promise I will be awesome tomorrow.

I don't break promises.

Reinoe, I am not active lurking. It is freaking thanksgiving week so I am busier than normal. I will get to stuff when I get to it.

That'll be awesome

[Aegor]

Votecount 3.2

[5]

reinoe:

beastcharizard, Slandaar, Nero Cain, Josh_B, Flubbernugget
[4]

beastcharizard:

Thor665, reinoe, Shiro, Boonskiies
[1]

Thor665:

goodmorning


[3]

Not Voting:

Izariael, AxleGreaser, T S O

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

Day 3 deadline:

(expired on 2014-12-06 22:41:19)

Mod Notes

Thor665 is V/LA until the 27th

[Izariael]

See? That wasn't so hard...

That was not an answer to your question. You asked me what I thought happened I was simply explaining to Shinobi If Boon is BP and was shot n1 then this has no relevance on his alignment.

So your thought is that Boon was not lying about bulletproof, just his alignment. Do you think he lied about being X-Shot? 2-shot BP scum seems unusual...

I think he is probably telling the truth about being BP, yes, he might have lied about being 2 shot more likely 1 shot who claimed 2 shot in case he was shot n1.

I tell you what I will answer your terrible question and there better be a point to all of this.

I think there are too many possibilities which are all plausible especially n1 but also on n2 in other words I don't really have an opinion on what happened and thinking about it is a complete waste of time.

I suspect you have a most likely scenario about what happened though which somehow has some relevance to Boon's alignment?

Perhaps it was poor phrasing of the original question, but I think I got the answer anyway. I wasn't interested in evaluating Boon's alignment, per se. I was interested in seeing what you felt were the cumulative kill-shots for nights one/two (i.e. was Boon shot night one or not/BP claim fake or real). Boon's alignment, and your opinion of his alignment, while relevant, were not the focus of my question.

[AxleGreaser]

I will say that, expanding/slightly altering your point

If beast is WW, and WW consensus last night was that Reinoe was in the mafia team, then if under pressure, WW faking red check on guessed scum Reinoe, would be ... cleverish? (not crack?)

If

beast is Rolecop

, and got an "Even-Night Cop" result on reinoe, it would be very smart play for him to claim first, especially given that he was/is about to be lynched.

Fake guilty on reinoe would be clever regardless given that reinoe has been fairly townread but this game is full of strange people whose opinions will turn on dimes.

Just to clarify

If

beast's

is a

team has a

Rolecop

, and got an "Even-Night Cop" result on reinoe, it would be very smart play for him to claim first, especially given that he was/is about to be lynched.

Yes my read of the day was that wagon on beast had traction and velocity. Scum might well claim early.

I also don't like the CC, and don't think a non town beast flip, means Reinoe must be town or anything like it.
I plan to in future vote Reinoe or not solely depending on how Reinoe has played/posted.

[AxleGreaser]

I would like to request that if there is a vig they don't kill me. I haven't had a chance to do anything yet and I promise I will be awesome tomorrow.

I don't break promises.

Reinoe, I am not active lurking. It is freaking thanksgiving week so I am busier than normal. I will get to stuff when I get to it.

That'll be awesome

...
...
meanwhile

VOTE: beastcharizard

I believe he is not a cop.
I believe he has no red check.

[goodmorning]

As I've said, I don't believe either of them.

Then you have to believe both of us are scum in some fashion. Why would town lie in this situation?

Plenty of reasons, like stupid gambits etc. I'm quite certain you're Scum, at any rate, and that's enough for right now.

I will say that, expanding/slightly altering your point

If beast is WW, and WW consensus last night was that Reinoe was in the mafia team, then if under pressure, WW faking red check on guessed scum Reinoe, would be ... cleverish? (not crack?)

If

beast is Rolecop

, and got an "Even-Night Cop" result on reinoe, it would be very smart play for him to claim first, especially given that he was/is about to be lynched.

Fake guilty on reinoe would be clever regardless given that reinoe has been fairly townread but this game is full of strange people whose opinions will turn on dimes.

Just to clarify

If

beast's

is a

team has a

Rolecop

, and got an "Even-Night Cop" result on reinoe, it would be very smart play for him to claim first, especially given that he was/is about to be lynched.

That would be even better play.

Did you ask me those questions yet?

[Slandaar]

Townies are actually playing the game and looking for scum (well they are meant to be doing that as they signed up to play, and playing to wincon is meant to be a thing)
Townies can answer questions about what they were thinking and doing, because they were thinking and doing.
It may depending on the player be wrong, bad, or other things, but they were doing that.
Scum have to make stuff up.
That is risky, they naturally resist, and if they dont they get caught.
Catch 22.
Self awareness of that meta does not matter. (hence axles exception to Muffins law)

Yeah but this doesn't apply to multiball because scum can hunt scum legitimately. Which is why I don't like multiball as the game is completely different but I digress...

[Slandaar]

Perhaps it was poor phrasing of the original question

Perhaps.

So, you have my answer and we will go along with Boon's alignment not being important. What have you gained from my answer? what were you looking for? what do you think happened during the nights?

[Slandaar]

That would be even better play.

Yeah, because it is working so well.

Do you realize the good play from Beastscum would have been to just... read the thread and start posting? which he has done to some degree. I know, mind blown, that is just insane, good play is to kamikaze someone.

[AxleGreaser]

Townies are actually playing the game and looking for scum (well they are meant to be doing that as they signed up to play, and playing to wincon is meant to be a thing)
Townies can answer questions about what they were thinking and doing, because they were thinking and doing.
It may depending on the player be wrong, bad, or other things, but they were doing that.
Scum have to make stuff up.
That is risky, they naturally resist, and if they dont they get caught.
Catch 22.
Self awareness of that meta does not matter. (hence axles exception to Muffins law)

Yeah but this doesn't apply to multiball because scum can hunt scum legitimately. Which is why I don't like multiball as the game is completely different but I digress...

I think I am finding they still do it differently.
Scum can hunt but they don't have to all the time. For town its the only thing to do.
Still waiting for beast ....

[Slandaar]

It depends on the individual. I think someone who, as town, doesn't do much/like to do much scumhunting then they won't do much as scum in multiball. Conversely someone who likes scumhunting as town/does a lot will do it a lot as scum in multiball.

[Slandaar]

(in otherwords I don't think the amount someone scumhunts is relevant to anything in multiball)

[Shiro]

Yeah, because it is working so well.

I dunno he almost got rei lynched and put him in a horrible spot. It not working that bad

[Boonskiies]

I'm pretty sure I was shot night 1.

Why ?

If it is mod confirmed or something Id like to know....

If that is Boonskiies being boonskiies (cray cray) then I'd like to know that I ought ignore it.

@Axle - I believe I was shot night 1. Day 1, i believe the way I was playing made it 'obvious' I was some kind of PR, and that everyone expected me to be a noob PR. Then in my neighborhood chat that night, I pretty much claimed that I was a protective role of some kind, like a doctor. We had 2 kills night 1, 3 kills night 2. Sure, there's other possibilities, but I do indeed believe I was shot, especially after the WW flip. We probably have mafia/ww/vig in this game.

@Nero - I just thought it was odd for me to be a 2-shot BP, which to me only makes sense if there were a lot of killing roles. Also, Thor claiming 1-shot Jailkeeper really fits in with my 2-shot BP, as that could be a cause of confusion and discussion, while not seriously being overpowered on the town side.

@Reinoe - Yes, you pushed me because you thought me claiming BP wouldn't draw a NK, but I was already under the impression that I had drawn a NK, making it so I am a HUGE problem for scum now. As they can't just kill me off, and they're going to want to lynch me to get rid of me. Keep watch for who's trying to get rid of me.

[Nero Cain]

Yes, you pushed me because you thought me claiming BP wouldn't draw a NK, but I was already under the impression that I had drawn a NK, making it so I am a HUGE problem for scum now. As they can't just kill me off, and they're going to want to lynch me to get rid of me. Keep watch for who's trying to get rid of me.

so ok. I'm pretty much in agreement that if you are town (or even sk or another team) then you represent a threat and scum NEED to try to lynch you. Now I did argue that if we aren't hitting scum in the next few days we should prob get rid of you before LYLO but I also agrued that we shouldn't lynch you right off the bat. Now you voted me for that (since I really don't believe all that other bullshit you were saying.) and have since then be pushing me. So, if you believe that scum are the ones trying to lynch you can you explain why you are pushing the guy thats arguing to not lynch you right away while ignoring all those were trying to wagon you yesterday and today?

[AxleGreaser]

@Axle - I believe I was shot night 1. Day 1, i believe the way I was playing made it 'obvious' I was some kind of PR, and that everyone expected me to be a noob PR. Then in my neighborhood chat that night, I pretty much claimed that I was a protective role of some kind, like a doctor. We had 2 kills night 1, 3 kills night 2. Sure, there's other possibilities, but I do indeed believe I was shot, especially after the WW flip. We probably have mafia/ww/vig in this game.

Ok that is the reasoning that you today (D3) have for thinking you got shot night one, even though you would not have been notified even if you were.

@Boonskiies

What do you make of this? (made on D2 after only two nk's n1)

I feel like his a sk because he

<boon>

feels the need to announce the fact his two shot bullet proof

to discourage who ever is shooting from shooting him

<boon>

again.

If he was mafia,werewolf alien what ever he would have his team mates and would probably feel secure.

Which is

Garmr

(Josh) thinking/knowing, before he had seen 3nk on n2, that you had been shot N1.


Yes i had as town wondered if say the Aneninen shot was a misguided vig shot and one of the scum shots went missing (double tap/protect/ ...).
That bolded statement by Garmr is drawing conclusions from it, which indicates level of surety that I don't think a towny could reasonably have.

If a towny had decided they were sure enough in their guess, of more nks they would feel the need to explain, that say nks were required for balance?

Garmr's

(Josh) post reads as if the knowledge is an implicit known sure fact.
However if

scum!Garmr

knows his team shot boon, and forgot that only his team knows that, then its a TMI slip.


(That why my vote on joshB/

garmr

today BTW)

[AxleGreaser]

That would be even better play.

Yeah, because it is working so well.

Do you realize the good play from Beastscum would have been to just... read the thread and start posting? which he has done to some degree. I know, mind blown, that is just insane, good play is to

kamikaze

someone.

yes good play for me in that situation would have been to just play. I am pretty sure i could have got enough done to achieve wait and see status. However did beast think that Beast could just play and get out of the problem?

If beast is WW(who are now one behind scum in MB), and he

thinks

reinoe is mafiascum, then fake claiming a red check to get the lynch could be a pretty sweet outcome(if hes right about reinoe).

[reinoe]

What is everyone's read on my slot?

I can't even remember what heph did and I'm too tired to check

He did nothing. And that is the truth.

DAT AMISHED TELL THO...

Also, how the hell am I supposed to control if I happen to check the thread after someone votes me? That was a coincidence.

Yeah, it could have been if maybe it only happened once...

My play from yesterday was me being under the scum kill radar so that I could inspect someone.

Why are you active lurking now?

Tue Nov 25, 2014 7:54 pm

Could someone voting me explain how beast's play this game is town?

Ugh can't believe this shit. Somebody who's voting me xplain how beasts play this game is town.

]The above is why you don't phone post between calls.

I'm gonna just scum-hunt when I get home.

--->But I'll point out Beast's remarkable silence after fake-claiming.<---

Tue Nov 25, 2014 8:10 pm

I was at work when I claimed thank you very much. You are scum and everyone knows it. Also, I explain why I played the way I did. I have mad a lurky doing nothing meta for myself as town lately so I thought this would be the perfect time to see if I could do that and survive as a PR. So yesterday I pretended to be behind and be useless.

If yall need to lynch me first to see that reinoe is scum then so be it. Not like I am going to get another chance to inspect someone anyway

.

Total elapsed time 16 minutes after being called out. Not a record but a good hard try. With a little more F5 refreshing you could have had that record for most rapid appearance after being called out for lurking.

[reinoe]

BTW, For those who don't know the "AMISHED TELL" let's have AMISHED explain it himself...

Subject: Open 193 - Friends and Enemies: It's over!

@VP: To clarify; the difference is what happens after the reread that I didn't take into account before. Skimming posts for questions and answers (which was the failure); or criticism.

Jazzmyn
Scien
ABR (hi!)
yours truly

That's just ones that I've caught/remembered specifically.

For those of you that don't know what's going on; I've basically come up with a scumtell that if you *criticize* who you replaced in; you're scum. This is a refinement from what I had it (if you read your replacement at all you were scum); but this seems to cover all the instances where I've seen/remember it. If you're town, you really don't have to worry about your predecessor as you know they're town; but if you think that they're scummy; then you're scum. As town, you know that you're not scummy and don't deserve criticism at all.

Subject: Newbie 1198: Mafia on Holiday (Game Over)

@BB: What is this "amished tell" you mentioned in the graveyard QT?

It's based off of people replacing into a game and getting a scum PM. What's the first thing you do? Reread your predecessor to see how screwed you are. Town, however, has no reason to reread their predeccesor(generally) as they know they were town so who cares.

The amish tell is whenever someone insults their predecessor, they are scum. This only works when:
A. They've never heard of the amish.
B. It's not part of their playstyle.

Examples:

Gah. 17 pages in one sitting wasn't great. Should've put this up earlier, guys, apologies for that; got caught by some jobs... From reading the thread, it looks like I'm in deep shit because of Fathom's lurkiness and not adding content.

LostGirlChan, Mafia Goon - Lynched Day One

See here, then here.

Here's an explanation from Amished himself.

Voided can say whatever he wants, I've had pretty good success with it.