Open 25 - Jester Mafia (Jester Wins/Mafia 2nd) - before 462

[gorckat]

vote: gorc

<_<

>_>

[gorckat]

I voted myself because its still random. Yes, three people were on SirTornado, but I thought nothing of it since it means little at this point.

unvote

vote: Yogurt

L-3, okay. L-2, eh- that's a little dicey. L-1, overboard on page 1.

[gorckat]

I do agree that Yogurt and Lawrence are the best for scum/jester.

I disagreee, however, that I am either.

Sir Tornado's choice of Lawrence for an OMGUS vote intrigues me...the vote order was:

Weyouns Last Chance (hereafter known to me as WLC)
Qman (OMGUS as Sir's random target)
pick (with playful paranoia over a bandwagon)
Lawrence (calling me the jester)
Yogurt (with no comment)

[gorckat]

Not quite. He pinned me as the jester 100% in his post. I see him as a

possible

jester, or possibly scum along with Sir and/or YB. I never said he should be left alone. He should be considered a lynch target.

Saying the scum are going to act like jesters to avoid lynch is WIFOM. If that were the SOP, then the right play is to always lynch the people who look like Jesters. Which means the real Jester

also

wants to be outrageously scummy to hopefully draw one of the lynches themselves.

I don't see any reason for the scum to not be trying to blend in like a normal game. This

is

my first game with a jester, but the scum still win the same.

[gorckat]

EBWOP

That last should be @BM, since a load of posts popped up while I was composing.

[gorckat]

Sorry- SOP = Standard Operating Procedure

When I said you pinned me as 100% Jester, I was referring to you saying to assume I was jester for now, compared to my stating you and YB were good for scum/jester. BM was saying I said the exact same thing as you, which I did not.

[gorckat]

Weyouns Last Chance (hereafter known to me as WLC)
Qman (OMGUS as Sir's random target)
pick (with playful paranoia over a bandwagon)
Lawrence (calling me the jester)
Yogurt (with no comment)

WeyounsLastChance clearly had a random vote.
Qman's OMGUS, I can accept
pickemgenius was too blatant about his joining the bandwagon that I knew it was not a serious vote.

The next in line was Lawrencelot. I combined my OMGUS sentiment to the fact that he acted scummy the next two posts (called you a jester, voted for self) and cumulated that with a vote on him.

I'd have expected the OMGUS to rest on the guy who put you at -1...and you hadn't mentioned the other things about Lawrence at all. Just strikes, me as odd, I guess.[/quote]

[gorckat]

Well...if we let him live, then either the scum take him out to avoid possibly losing themselves, or he lives and we lynch him tomorrow.

[gorckat]

* The Townies win if and only if they lynch all Mafia and do not lynch a Jester. (The game ends when all Mafia have been lynched.)
* The Mafia win if and only if they equal or exceed the remaining non-Mafia in the game, or if nothing can prevent the same.
* The Jester wins if and only if they are lynched.

My reading goes like this:

If town lynches the Jester, the town loses. If the town loses before the Mafia are (or can't be prevented from becoming) the majority, then the Mafia aren't the winners.

[gorckat]

Actually, I think this might be a rare situation calling for a Day 1 No-Lynch. Why risk hitting a real Jester if Lawrence is scum?

[gorckat]

Hat trick:

unvote

Let's hear people's thoughts on No-Lynch and letting Lawrence get NK'd by the scum or lynched Day 2 if he lives.

[gorckat]

Darn it! Took too long :p

[gorckat]

No way to be sure til Day 2, I think.

No-Lynch:
-Lawrence is NK'd: 7 townies, 2 scum
-Lawrence is not NK'd: 6 townies, 1 Jester, 2 (soon to be 1!) scum

Lynch hitting townie:
-Lawrence is NK'd: 5 townies, 2 scum
-Lawrence is not NK'd: 5 townies, 2 (soon to be 1!) scum

Lynch hitting scum:
-Lawrence is NK'd: 7 townies, 1 scum
-Lawrence is not NK'd: Victory!

Lynch hitting Jester:
-Lose

In all cases, the best play for the scum is to pop the Jester at night, else they lose Day 2.

[gorckat]

What being the case?

[gorckat]

Erm- why?

[gorckat]

If the scum let a claimed Jester live and win when he gets lynched tomorrow, then I count it as a pyhrric victory.

The game now has a symbiotic/parasitic relatinship between scum and town- if they know Lawrence is the Jester, they

have

to kill him. Otherwise he gets lynched tomorrow and they lose. The

only

way they can win at this point is NKing Lawrence.

And if I'm wrong, show me how. My look at the raw numbers tells me lynching Lawrence, if he lives through the night, as the 100% correct play, assuming the scum do their bit and make the 100% correct play themselves.

And if you're objecting to my No-Lynch query, then show me why. Again, my look at the numbers show town doing very well in that case.

[gorckat]

Then you would lose. If Lawrence makes it through the night, he is 100% scum and should be treated as such.

If the town must lynch someone today, then hit me and go after Lawrence tomorrow if he lives. I'm not the Jester and it won't lose the game if I hang.

And I'd really like to hear why Thad is also still voting Lawrence. I'm not convinced a Jester wouldn't make that statement (I'm scum or Jester, figure it out). Can someone can cite previous examples? I understand it seems

plausible

, but its a testable claim as I've described.

[gorckat]

'Cept well-behaved townies.

[gorckat]

Fair enough, but that's another debate.

So tell me. If you were scum, how would letting Lawrence live be in any way possible the right play?

[gorckat]

They wouldn't, but the scum lose, too, if the Jester hangs. That's why it works. If the scum let the Jester live, the town lynches him under the assumption he's scum.

If the scum are playing to win, they have to NK the Jester.

And your question doesn't answer my question. What're

you

hiding?

[gorckat]

What reasoning? You've made statements, but I haven't seen this thing you call 'reasoning'.

1) Lawrence claimed jester/scum
2) The jester can beat the mafia
3) If Lawrence is alive Day 2, he's no threat to the mafia
4) If Lawrence is alive Day 2, he's scum

That's my basic thought process on the matter. If the scum want to lose, they let a jester live.

I feel like a broken record...

[gorckat]

So you're saying

who

is lying?

Lawrence? Then he's a vanilla that deserves to be lynched for claiming jester/scum. What good did that do us?

Me? I'll hang and you'll see I wasn't.

If the scum want to gambit the game away by letting the Jester live, punish them by voting him. I can't say it anymore clearly than that. They deserve to lose if they let a Jester live.

[gorckat]

I just skimmed the start and end (hoping for a postgame look at the gambit) of Open 15- the difference between Vengeful and Jester is a townie getting lynched Day 1 gets the Vig kill...I don't see how the play there sheds any light on the play here.

Two different setups with very different mechanics.

My gut is telling me that someone advocating for letting a claimed scum/jester live is the other scum.

FoS: JDodge

Vote: No-Lynch

[gorckat]

I did see that.

Are you saying you should lynch me because I've been vocal?

[gorckat]

Gotcha.

1) There is a substantial difference between Vengeful and Jester (see my post 103).
2) The mafia don't know if Lawrence is the Jester anymore than we do. They only know if he's scum or not. Since they can't be certain he's a Jester, they have to NK him to avoid losing the game tomorrow when we all should lynch him.

I firmly believe that the mafia will throw the game away if Lawrence is the Jester and they let him live. I don't think making a jester/scum claim is in any way a +EV gambit in this setup.

If someone has an example of scuh a gambit in a

Jester

game and it

worked

, then I'll consider revising that stance, but as it is, we don't lose not lynching Lawrence.

[gorckat]

I'm not angry- sorry if I gave that impression

I'm just saying a failed Vengeful gambit isn't equivalent to what we have now.

[gorckat]

Mmm maybe Tornado, but the are also taking a huge risk at losing to a jester lynch when they can remove the threat of a loss through that manner immediately. I'll have to think about it some more, right now I'm straddlin the fence on this idea.

The question is, will the town risk it?

I won't.

(Non-angry, strictly for emphasis italics ahead )

Its not a risk the

town

is taking- it is 100% the

scum

.

They

control Lawrence's fate. If

they

let him live,

they

are asking to lose the game.

They can avoid losing if the kill him, and while the town would be better off knowing a Jester lynch won't auto-lose, the scum are still in the hunt themselves.

[gorckat]

I vote for No-Lynch per my post breaking the numbers/scenarios down.

[gorckat]

Notice, also, how Lawrence completely avoided all the discussion the last ~2 pages regarding his claim.

[gorckat]

Agreed. His post 118 gave me icky feelings all over.

[gorckat]

So, what am I? You won't find out until I'm lynched, or someone else claims scum or jester.

Or you are NK'd. Living through the night confirms you as scum and you get lynched then.

Its your own fault you got figured out.

[gorckat]

So...bump?

What do people want today? No-Lynch? Something else?

[gorckat]

So I understand

BOTH

(he he italics) sides/arguments for the proposed idea of a no lynch, and I would just like to say

if

Lawrence lives through N1, that I wouldn't say he's

100%

scum, but I would almost for sure vote for him.

I think his behavior since the claim locks it in. He hasn't tried to back off the claim at all.

He gets NK'd or lynched day 2.

[gorckat]

No-Lynch:
-Lawrence is NK'd: 7 townies, 2 scum
-Lawrence is not NK'd: 6 townies, 1 Jester, 2 (soon to be 1!) scum

Lynch hitting townie:
-Lawrence is NK'd: 5 townies, 2 scum
-Lawrence is not NK'd: 5 townies, 2 (soon to be 1!) scum

Lynch hitting scum:
-Lawrence is NK'd: 7 townies, 1 scum
-Lawrence is not NK'd: Victory!

Lynch hitting Jester:
-Lose

In all cases, the best play for the scum is to pop the Jester at night, else they lose Day 2.

I'm gonna quote myself here- this is my by the numbers look at why No-Lynch is better than taking a chance that Lawrence is actually not the Jester.

[gorckat]

Even your own?

[gorckat]

I presume you won't tell us who sent this PM?

Does it matter? I was going to ask myself but was beat to it.

YB is my bet for Jester is Lawrence lives through the night.

Sir Tornado strikes me as his most likely scum-buddy.

[gorckat]

Could be, but we'll need to see if Lawrence lives or not, since he's one or the other by his claim.

[gorckat]

No lynch?

And, exactly where does the No-Lynch lead us to?

If we do not lynch anyone today, then what we do on day 2 would be more or less determined by the NK, which the scum controls.

As long as you kill Lawrence, assuming he's not scum, then we're fine. As pick noted, and I've said over and over, if scum want to win, they kill Lawrence, else we lynch him tomorrow. If he's the Jester, everyone loses.

[gorckat]

Also, my home PC lost its case fan and its power supply might be going up as well, so I've only got access from work right now.

[gorckat]

FOS: gorckat and BM

. No lynch is always bad, it's basically giving the game in the hands of the mafia. They can decide everything, and especially the start of teh game is important, because there is not enough information.

Vote: gorckat

Its not always bad. There are situations where it can be mathematically shown to be better.

This situation is unique. You will either be a NK'd Jester or a lynched scum day 2. I didn't run the numbers all the way through, but I don't think the town loses any faster in this case (No-Lynch vs Lynch) assuming incorrect lynches the whole way through.

[gorckat]

Also note- were I the Jester, I would've just hammered myself.

[gorckat]

If I go and Lawrence lives through the night, ya'll damn sight better lynch him :p

[gorckat]

I don't want a gorckat lynch. He's either Jester or town.

Also note- were I the Jester, I would've just hammered myself.

Just sayin'

[gorckat]

That's right- I saw Lawrence's vote and thought that put me at -1, but he was already on me.

[gorckat]

vote:Lawrencelot

I'm sorry you didn't like it. Perhaps its

your

partner we're getting ready to string up.

[gorckat]

Vote: gorckat

. (I thought Sir T was my partner?) If we had lynched scum, the townies wouldn't be at a disadvantage now. There were enough people of who it was rather sure they're not jester, so if you lynched a probable scum that's not jester town would have more chance.

I thought Sir Tornado was "most likely" to be your partner. I've also FoSed JDodge.

Since I'm not your partner, I can't say with 100% certainty who that partner is.

Thad is curiously passive in his oppoistion to me and the No-Lynch. He posted once ~2 weeks ago, and again today. He certainly didn't do much to stop or ague against the No-Lynch.

Also- what grave disadvantage are we at right now? We're going to run up one scum, and by my count that leaves 6 townies and a Jester.

[gorckat]

I still stick to my day 2 opinion.

Gorckat and Lawrencelot are the scum. I can't believe half the town decided to buy gorckat's No-Lynch yesterday. Can we lynch him or Lawrencelot today please?

Now, here is my questions to those who no-lynched yesterday:

1) Why did you no lynch?

2) Are the reasons you no-lynched yesterday valid today too?

3) If they are, then what was the point in no-lynching yesterday?

This is precisely the reason why I hate no-lynches

I'll answer since you didn't exclude me.

1) Lawrence claimed he was scum or Jester. If he's Jester, then it was in the mafia's interest to NK him since we are going to lynch him today.

2) I assume you mean "should we No-Lynch today"? No, of course not. Lawrence lived, he is scum.

3) N/A per my answer to #2

Now, if I'm scum, what do I gain by laying out exactly how who my partner is? I'd offered myself for lynch yesterday; what if I

had

been lynched? Lawrence lives and he gets lynched. Scum lose...whoops!

There's no way Lawrence and I are partners.

[gorckat]

In you coming up scum, Lawrence would have looked town, in the way that you set him up for a lynch.

The point that he claimed Jester/Scum still stands, though. That's when I started after him.

If I were lynched scum and Lawrence made it through the night, the point still stands that a claimed Jester/Scum lived and would need to be dealt with.

[gorckat]

Heh- the second time I used "the point stands" I hit CTRL-F trying to see if someone else had used that phrase recently. Missed my own post, however

[gorckat]

I voted no-lynch because I didn't think gorckat was a good lynch choice.

Now I do.

Vote: gorckat

Why? Because I lived?

[gorckat]

I should've just let it at 'Why?'...I decided not to post 'May I ask why?' since I figured you'd just say 'Yes' :/

Why?

[gorckat]

Indeed!

Now that I'm at -1, with Sir able to flip and vote me as he was yesterday, I think it fair.

And for reals this time, yo! I'm not the Jester by not hammering myself

[gorckat]

I don't want a gorckat lynch. He's either Jester or town.

I only mentioned the Jester bit because it was a minor point yesterday.

Has the above assessment changed? I imagine running me up as town will confirm Lawrence as scum.

Actually seems like a fair bet- if we assume that Lawrence is confirmed by living, run up a likely partner: me (since BM and maybe others think I'm bussing Lawrence, despite my earlier objection to such an idea).

If it gets the town a win, go for it. I was game for being the lamb yesterday, so why not today?

[gorckat]

I'm intrigued that you were voting me yesterday, but not today.

[gorckat]

JDodge- if I'm town, what does that prove that lynching Lawrence does not?

[gorckat]

(Had to check to see if Romanus allows twilight talk, which he does, since I believe we just nailed Lawrence)

Yes- "If I come up town". I eliminated the cumbersome "If

[you lynch me]

and I come up town". It was hardly a self-confirmation as scum.

I wanted to know what JDodge will gain from that. I also want to know what made his assessment of me as town or Jester change. I'd love to hear YB's reason, too.

[gorckat]

The way I see it now is that Lawrencelot and Sir Tornado have set up this whole scheme of sacrificing Lawrencelot, so Sir Tornado sees it through to the end. But maybe I'm wrong and I have to step back from that idea, and refresh my ideas. Any comments on this suggestion would be welcome though.

I thought that, too, which is why I pointed out ST first voted Lawrence, when yesterday he wanted me. I know he said he thought about the plan, but his second post today seems like he hadn't fully reconciled his agreement with the No-Lynch.

I thought his vote was his trying to be fully on board with a Lawrence lynch when he comes up scummy.

[gorckat]

He's already gone. Why the change of heart?

[gorckat]

Agreed on YB being the Jester, WLC. It looks almost like he thought the lynch hadn't happened and wanted to get our attention.

And I lol at Lawrence:

whether I turn up Jester or scum

If you were the Jester you'd be hooting and hollering

[gorckat]

NB: Just to be clear, even if the Jester fulfills his win condition, the game will continue to determine second place.

Well that changes things...

[gorckat]

Riiiiiiiight.

When I offered myself up as lynch, it was in the context of promoting the No-Lynch to out Lawrence. I'm still game for it if that's the way people want to go Day 3.

But a second person asking to be lynched? When a claim was totally unnecessary?

[gorckat]

But no one's voting you! It's twilight after a lynch. The claim is totally out of context.

[gorckat]

vote: SirTornado

You had wanted me gone day 1, day 2 you voted for the confirmed scum saying my argument made sense, and now you vote for me again.

[gorckat]

Fine.

vote: gorckat

See ya hang tomorrow chief.

[gorckat]

Go town!

[gorckat]

Yeah- at the point I self-voted, I'd gotten frustrated and lost my cool, plus I was convinced that Tornado was scum and would waffle on voting himself.

I forget the moment I realized Thad was the Jester. I watched him get lynched in horror