NY 178: MASQUERADE -- GAME OVER


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Post Post #3025 (ISO) » Wed Nov 05, 2014 4:34 pm

Post by Nero Cain »

Day 2 comes after day 1, so why should he have not expected for us to discuss his claim/play on d2? What you are arguing is wrong. He's a claimed BP, could he be scum? Sure. Yea, trying to draw a nk as BP makes some sense. Could he fake that? I guess. He's not someone I want to lynch today though.



I found flubs asking for opinions on me(his town read) to be strange. Explain what you think the town motivation is in that? What is your read on Flub and why?
Of all tyrannies,a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end they do so with the approval of their own conscience.

edited c.s. lewis quote b/c limit
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Post Post #3026 (ISO) » Wed Nov 05, 2014 4:51 pm

Post by AxleGreaser »

In post 3025, Nero Cain wrote:Day 2 comes after day 1, so why should he have not expected for us to discuss his claim/play on d2? What you are arguing is wrong.

Yes so does Day 3 also comes after D1 , but he didnt specifically claim each day after this, he stated it was D2 where his play would be the major point of discussion.
The claim also implied NOT D1.
Here it is again
In post 1813, Boonskiies wrote:I'm playing the way I am for a reason. This reason shall be brought out, and most likely the
main subject of Day 2
.

That is not just pointing out, hey some time ago I claimed guys and i know youll be talking about me heaps. It is specific claim about himself.


That occurred before ^^^^ the BP claim

He's a claimed BP, could he be scum? Sure. Yea, trying to draw a nk as BP makes some sense. Could he fake that? I guess. He's not someone I want to lynch today though.


Yeah the BP claim makes some sense, and I don't know if i want to lynch it either.
That why I am not voting it at this time.

So again I ask you reasons for voting me, as where you want to go today seem little thin.
Is that all you have as basis?
I looked in your filter, I dont see anything else. Did I miss it.

Or was your whole reason based on that so called misrep and that is the best read you have.
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Post Post #3027 (ISO) » Wed Nov 05, 2014 4:59 pm

Post by AxleGreaser »

In post 3025, Nero Cain wrote:I found flubs asking for opinions on me(his town read) to be strange. Explain what you think the town motivation is in that?

Err.... No.

Even if I do or dont have a plausible town motivation for that, If I explain it then he can just agree yeah id id for that reason.
If you think its scummy press him about it.
(Stuff being posted by other people that I see no good motivation for at all, is also not unusual for me.)

What is your read on Flub and why?

Later. Not changing topics for the moment, and I really ought be doing something in RL, so it will be a bit later. (perhaps this will do but there is no why)
TLDR: unlikely to vote flub today, unless someone posts "an Oh fuck why didn't I see that case". or something new and scummy happens (from memory)
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Post Post #3028 (ISO) » Wed Nov 05, 2014 5:27 pm

Post by Thor665 »

In post 2963, Flubbernugget wrote:Would wagon if boons, iz, dave, and you get sorted out.

So you have stronger scumreads on all of them.
I think it's safe to say a Thor wagon is a non-starter.

Can you describe your case on the other three - just a quick nugget sort of explanation - you feel very empty to me right now and I'd love to flesh you out.

In post 2971, Shiro wrote:@thor Hey since axl bored you and you didn't answer him mind answering to Shiro why the placement on the Pere wagon was scummy ?

Do you think that your wagon placement looks townish or null?

In post 2974, AxleGreaser wrote:and if instead of being a hardSmurf and saying no you find it... you had tried youd have realised your error and Id have moved on days ago,.... (and wasted lots less time)
as it is, I see you claiming, reclaiming, and insisting on, one basis for your read then oops no its another.

And yet, despite all that, you actually go nowhere with it.
Proving my point that it was empty work.
So - no, I have no guilt in "wasting" your time. Your intent was to waste mine also apparently, and at least mine wasn't done intentionally.

In post 2979, T S O wrote:Thor, will answer tomorrow - literally falling to sleep.

Sure, I'll quote this to help me remember.
Though that does remind me.

@Goodmorning - remember when you lied to me twice yesterday about answering that question about wagon analysis? You ever planning to do that - or was it all lies from top to bottom?
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Post Post #3029 (ISO) » Wed Nov 05, 2014 5:43 pm

Post by AxleGreaser »

In post 3028, Thor665 wrote:And yet, despite all that, you actually go nowhere with it.


You seemingly get nowhere with many things you chase down.
yesterday you chased down
scum
town PereV.
yesterday i chased TSO, a lot for not much.
(Still noting he is now standing up his hood, having stood up people who asked in the thread, having stood up me...)
(gee those reasons must be really hard to make up)

Today i did eventually get your reason, for town reading Boonskies from you.

I could instead have assigned a vague weight to the strength I usually give your reads, (allowing for my uncertainty of your alignment)
(bearing in mind you claim you can fool me every time as you want me in 100% of your scum games) (I probably have to doubt every read of yours unless I see it too.)
instead I thought it important enough as Boon is acquiring votes, to find out for myself how accurate and valid I thought your (borrowed from
dave
,garmr ) reasons were.

So no I didnt get nowhere.
I got that I dont particularly like and as reasons to think Boon is town.
Thus i should give less weight to your opinion on that than i usually do.

it small and it should not have taken long to do, but its how I play the game.
It may even be bad, (stats say I am bad), but its how I play the game.
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Post Post #3030 (ISO) » Wed Nov 05, 2014 5:45 pm

Post by Thor665 »

I feel that post also wasted my time.

Why aren't you voting Shiro?
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Post Post #3031 (ISO) » Wed Nov 05, 2014 6:06 pm

Post by AxleGreaser »

In post 3030, Thor665 wrote:I feel that post also wasted my time.

Why aren't you voting Shiro?


Yes it probably entirely wasted your time.
That might be shame but it was not entirely unexpected that you would not find it informative.

I didn't like Slaandars last reason.

I found , kinda buried it.
When I read I can kinda see the binding idea, that all possible kills were bad. So IZ team cant have made them hence hes not scum?
Scum can always WIFOM and other stuff, so I dont really think the arguments great. BUT
"Town near enough always know the conclusion of their post before they write it thus generally you get much more to the point answers"
I found Shiro did know what Shiro main contention of the post was.
It was a stream of consciousness, kinda post, coulda been more succinct, but Id need to very careful to work out Shiro would not do that as town.

CAVEAT: There exists a I believe a logical error somewhere in the related posting. But no I wont say what it is. (besides i have poor logic so I am bound to be bad and wrong or very probably boring about it)
and the related pool is IIRC large. Hence describing it would just waste lots of time.

TLDR: I have bad feeling at the pit of my stomach I am not voting Shiro for the same reason I was reluctant to vote PereV
So I will see what happens and if Shiro gives me scummy or towny vibes as the day goes on
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Post Post #3032 (ISO) » Wed Nov 05, 2014 6:12 pm

Post by Thor665 »

In post 3031, AxleGreaser wrote:So I will see what happens and if Shiro gives me scummy or towny vibes as the day goes on

So you have no read on him at all?
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Post Post #3033 (ISO) » Wed Nov 05, 2014 6:18 pm

Post by Muffin »

In post 2990, Flubbernugget wrote:Well damn muffin.

Can we at least get some thoughts on nero right now?
I have no strong read on Nero currently. His ISO is mostly fluff/filler. It's a lot of setup spec and mod meta, all of which is 110% useless. There are a few decent posts and no outright pings.
In post 2998, Flubbernugget wrote:
In post 2994, Nero Cain wrote:Well why do you want thoughts on me if you aren't scum reading me?


I would like to know why muffin disagrees with you.

In which Flubber implies that my read on Boonskies should take other players' reads on Boonskies into account. I laugh at your silly implication and flimsy logic. Ha ha ha ha.
One's self-meta cannot be known without invalidating it.
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Post Post #3034 (ISO) » Wed Nov 05, 2014 6:22 pm

Post by Muffin »

In post 3011, Nero Cain wrote:Yeah, I never said anything about a false dichotomy.

@town flubber is caught scum and continues to reply to me yet his replies have NOTHING to do with whats being said. town cred to the next 8 voters.


also I am not scum reading boons
You'll have to spell out why exactly this makes flubber scum. Be explicit.

In post 3025, Nero Cain wrote:I found flubs asking for opinions on me(his town read) to be strange. Explain what you think the town motivation is in that?
What is the scum motivation for that?
One's self-meta cannot be known without invalidating it.
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Post Post #3035 (ISO) » Wed Nov 05, 2014 6:37 pm

Post by AxleGreaser »

In post 3032, Thor665 wrote:
In post 3031, AxleGreaser wrote:So I will see what happens and if Shiro gives me scummy or towny vibes as the day goes on

So you have no read on him at all?


please dont do that.
By taking just that part of what I said it looks like you are responding reasonably. You are not.


You asked
In post 3030, Thor665 wrote:Why aren't you voting Shiro?


I gave you reason.
That reason described why not.

The last bit describes what it will take for to reach a point where I will vote Shiro.
Your interpretation of my words in the full context is not reasonable.
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Post Post #3036 (ISO) » Wed Nov 05, 2014 6:58 pm

Post by Boonskiies »

@axle - you fail to mention the most likely part of the quote you keep quoting. And honestly, look how much talk it's brought. It
is
the main point of toDay. And day 1 I had to act like I was a doctor or a vigilante so I could hopefully be shot during the night. I expected that to be good town play tbh...sorry, I'm not too strong a town player all the time. Check my scum game though. I am a strong scum player.
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Post Post #3037 (ISO) » Wed Nov 05, 2014 7:15 pm

Post by davesaz »

PSA: "False Dichotomy"

Spoiler: logic
A
False Dichotomy
is a logical fallacy which arises from "either this or that" arguments which ignore the possibility of additional possible results. A classic example is "if you're not for me then you're against me", which ignores the possibility of having a neutral opinion.

We now return you to your regularly scheduled scum hunting.
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Post Post #3038 (ISO) » Wed Nov 05, 2014 7:21 pm

Post by AxleGreaser »

In post 3037, davesaz wrote:PSA: "False Dichotomy"


Yup and where I claimed that the previous quote contained statement which implied an either or clause.
It wasnt as strong as it can be, it didnt say so either this or that MUST be true. But it tried hard.
Not sure what you or anyone else thought was obvious, but Flub didnt seem to see it straight away.
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Post Post #3039 (ISO) » Wed Nov 05, 2014 7:37 pm

Post by Thor665 »

In post 3035, AxleGreaser wrote:
In post 3032, Thor665 wrote:
In post 3031, AxleGreaser wrote:So I will see what happens and if Shiro gives me scummy or towny vibes as the day goes on

So you have no read on him at all?


please dont do that.
By taking just that part of what I said it looks like you are responding reasonably. You are not.

Okay.
So what is your current read on Shiro and why?
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Post Post #3040 (ISO) » Wed Nov 05, 2014 7:42 pm

Post by Shiro »

@Thor

Well I don't know. I never really anylised a wagon before to know how to classify the placements in it. Let alone in a big game.l with 12 people voting the person.
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Post Post #3041 (ISO) » Wed Nov 05, 2014 7:45 pm

Post by AxleGreaser »

In post 3036, Boonskiies wrote:@axle - you fail to mention the most likely part of the quote you keep quoting. And honestly, look how much talk it's brought. It
is
the main point of toDay. And day 1 I had to act like I was a doctor or a vigilante so I could hopefully be shot during the night. I expected that to be good town play tbh...sorry, I'm not too strong a town player all the time. Check my scum game though. I am a strong scum player.

Yeah but when i quote your post I put it all there. No misrep. (the posts below are however trimmed as indicated for brevity.)

Your play was as a fact inconsistent,
you were as a now claimed fact trying to draw a night kill, to do so you represented yourself as dangeorous play maker for D2. based on your role.
D2 rocks around and presumably scum guessed, your role, or assumed you to be derpy enough not to worry about how you would use it. So they left you alone.

But your claim about your own role and how D2 would play out then fails to materialise.

That concerned me
it, the claim, bought you a days grace not a free ride. (it especially didnt buy you the right to lie(see thor read below) about your reads to get lynch to happen)

There exist plausible to me scum power roles that would really want a day, or twos grace (even if they wound up dead, bussed for cred?)
So there was indeed good reason to poke you.

You needed to have your reins pulled in. because..

Ive just been reading your posts again to decide whether or not I think your are scum,
or will remain unsure enough that you will have to be lynched no matter what.

I found several interesting things. All bad but they may actually make you bit awful townier so try not to bite the hand that ... (never mind)

This is shocking play
In post 2899, Boonskiies wrote:[...]
I just want a lynch to happen.

No as town you never ever just want a lynch to happen. That never crosses your mind Ok. (well near deadline vs no lynch maybe Ok)

However you claim to be a 2 shot BP townie.
I am presuming you just want to get into D3 and have another chance at getting shot... (because for you the game is all about you)
BTW: if they called your bluff D1 they will (and would have) again,

so no, you effectively lying about reads, when you claim to have power role
"Thors town."
In post 2960, Boonskiies wrote:I don't care enough to explain anything on him.
I was just trying to get people off Thor and onto Iz when I said he was town.

This post may get you lynched two games from now...

However, the nutty thing is, if you are town and solely focussed on getting through this game day so you can have you chance to be the hero in the spotlight and eat a night kill then it kind makes twisted sense.
but hey if people want to tell me that idea ^^^ is nuts.
and they just want to lynch you anyway.. I am not sure i could call them bad for it.
It will be very hard thing to read those posts and think your town.
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Post Post #3042 (ISO) » Wed Nov 05, 2014 7:56 pm

Post by Thor665 »

In post 3040, Shiro wrote:@Thor

Well I don't know. I never really anylised a wagon before to know how to classify the placements in it. Let alone in a big game.l with 12 people voting the person.

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=28176

In post 3039, Thor665 wrote:
In post 3035, AxleGreaser wrote:
In post 3032, Thor665 wrote:
In post 3031, AxleGreaser wrote:So I will see what happens and if Shiro gives me scummy or towny vibes as the day goes on

So you have no read on him at all?


please dont do that.
By taking just that part of what I said it looks like you are responding reasonably. You are not.

Okay.
So what is your current read on Shiro and why?

@Axle
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Post Post #3043 (ISO) » Wed Nov 05, 2014 8:10 pm

Post by Shiro »

@Thor
Oh I know that don't worry xD I wont be entering a large game for some time after this. It is all kinda overwhelming.

Which brings us back to why do you think it is scummy ?
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Post Post #3044 (ISO) » Wed Nov 05, 2014 8:57 pm

Post by AxleGreaser »

In post 3039, Thor665 wrote:
In post 3035, AxleGreaser wrote:
In post 3032, Thor665 wrote:
In post 3031, AxleGreaser wrote:So I will see what happens and if Shiro gives me scummy or towny vibes as the day goes on

So you have no read on him at all?


please dont do that.
By taking just that part of what I said it looks like you are responding reasonably. You are not.

Okay.
So what is your current
read
on Shiro and
why
?

(I usually do
why
then get conclusions(
read
) cos im town) ok?

I really want to offer to trade it for your explanation of what placement means and why it was scummy,
but nah.
that would waste my time.

First thing about reading Shiro (as opposed to the slot which doesnt get much better for me)
is noting that 25 posts make this a lot like a D1 read.
but Shiro does have more to react to so it could be stronger
but Shiro could plausibly get buried by volume (so shock explains what Id usually read as scummy)

Thus at this time On D2 is not a good time to read Shiro, for me.

That said.
Reasons:
Spoiler: Slaandar 2986 again
I don't like Slaandars to turn it into a read Id have to read a significant amount of Shiros other games I am guessing all of them to get feel for how focussed Shiro is when making a point Shiro believes.
Then Id have to guess if the extra complexity of the game gave Shiro pause for thought. "It just doesnt make sense with the people that died n1. " is a firm conclusion tot he post, but is followed by a caveat.
I love caveats when done right, that one was. In reading Shiros other games id try and work out if Shiro is the kind of person that would naturally state the caveat as town, or only as scum leaving room for an exit.
I think I have other caveats on Shiros analysis. That will take long time to do right, so far its not a big enough priority, Id like to delay it until I have enough data here.
(See next post for a grand conspiracy theory twist on this.)

Spoiler: Slaandar 2837 Safe posts + me
I know Slaandar didnt apply it to Shiro. But perhaps the scummiest feel I got was, during my opening exchange with Shiro.
as mentioned I found to be seriously hand wavy and challenged about that
addresses that but still no specific posts except by description "pigeon posts" but "That is on top of my head."
it makes promises (and i hate those) but hey then something actually happened.

Spoiler: 2462 Looks like legitimate townies question, to me.
(Your (but with my slant) is probably at the heart of why I voted him without excessive reluctance, in the end)
(Do note he has called me 100% scum means he didn't back away, and you were asked why he wouldn't. For me it was the disconnect between how much you were scum to him and that he would back away.)

This is the opposite interpretation to Slaandar. Shiros is a finding out post not a concluding one.

Some parts rub me wrong(feels), but instinct(experience) tells me thats me being wrong. I think I can connect the dots on how the read moved off Anen on PereV(by elimination) but I think the 'rub wrong' is that Shiro read seemed to shift with the breeze.
More time and better feel for Shiro in this game may clarify which feeling wins on that post.

TLDR: I dont want to lynch Shiro today.

(and if I want to lynch someone else I ought get a wriggle on eh. Good thing I am not one of the most experienced players in the game, or the whole shebang might be stalled doing nothing much.)

Caveat: Shiro's filter being so short, things can change fast. (new posts, or maybe new posts give new perspective to old ones.) So I dont expect read to change without new reasons, or an argument a lot better than gut..

I could do the predecessors too, but I think my last conclusion when i tried that was bleh yuk. (a touch scummy on cho)(I dont read that kind of play well at all)
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Post Post #3045 (ISO) » Wed Nov 05, 2014 10:02 pm

Post by TierShift »

Right, so why is boon being wagoned now? Can someone explain? For me, his claim checks out.

I don't think I want to lynch shiro either today.
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Post Post #3046 (ISO) » Wed Nov 05, 2014 11:31 pm

Post by AxleGreaser »

In post 3045, TierShift wrote:Right, so why is boon being wagoned now? Can someone explain? For me, his claim checks out.

I don't think I want to lynch shiro either today.


Id be thinking the red bits in light them up like Christmas trees...

You might also want to look at

When I made that post, I couldn't see how multishot BP might imply multiball.
Not sure how, but I thought 2 shot BP meant activated on two nights.
(AKA weaker than the newbie queue one.... which when i looked is named a 1 shot BP...) (yeah derp me)

anyway, why be bullet proof to two shots?
I can see boon thinking it so each team can shoot him once.
(and not think about what happens after one scum shoots him once and he claims 1 shot BP...
then they do it again... nyah nyah. )
I can see boon thinking it so each team can shoot him once.

What I dont know is how plausible a 2 shot BP is on this site.
hmph found one this time (and its multi!!!)
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=28253

One problem I see is Id have thought a two shot BP role could be really swingy depending on which towny got it.
If an influential strong player scum hunter got it who was rarely scum read (due to weak scum game.)
Even if they only had some of those characteristics... RNG could really change the balance.
Boon getting it makes me laugh, but I dont think site meta is for host to do that kinda thing, ???
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Post Post #3047 (ISO) » Wed Nov 05, 2014 11:37 pm

Post by Izariael »

In post 3045, TierShift wrote:Right, so why is boon being wagoned now? Can someone explain? For me, his claim checks out.

I don't think I want to lynch shiro either today.

Agreed on Shiro. I'm contemplating Boonskiies.
From the perspective of aiming to pull the nightkill
, most of his claim makes sense to me except for this part:
In post 2563, Boonskiies wrote:Anenien was very prominent in our neighborhood last night, along with Iz. I claimed that I have a protective role in the thread, and also asked who people thought would be worth protecting.
I did not claim any role, nor will I be doing so toDay
. The way I said it made it seem like I had a limited use, which Iz pointed out in the thread also. I feel Iz thought he could get some town cred by not killing me after I claimed that I was a protective role, since he most likely thought I was just some noob not knowing what to do, and since he thought I slipped that I had a limited power role, he'd be fine not killing me. I expect there to be at least one scum in my neighborhood, since we are the biggest neighborhood, and Anen is now dead. Goodmorning, Shiro, and Iz have at least one scum there, and I'm banking on it being Iz.


If he was trying to pull the night 1 kill onto him, then
why is he scumreading me for not dying
?
I have the comprehensive ability of a vegetable.
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Post Post #3048 (ISO) » Wed Nov 05, 2014 11:45 pm

Post by Izariael »

In post 2978, Nero Cain wrote:IZ, can you quote the post that made you think there was a 4th hood?


Not directly, though you could see for yourself.

It has been discussed here though:

In post 2735, Izariael wrote:Boon, Aneninen was also the one who mentioned 1/2/3/4/5/6 player neighborhoods (totaling 21 players.) Are you wanting to accuse me of that as well Boon? You're using his comments about the neighborhood set-up spec to make a scum case on me as though I said them. It's not gonna fly Boon. My comment about a 4th neighborhood was very specific. (It included a link. Check the link Boon. It's literally the only reason I ever stated for thinking a fourth neighborhood was possible.)

In fact, I posted the exact same reason for thinking a fourth neighborhood being possible here on Day 1:
In post 702, Izariael wrote:If the wording of the opening neighborhood post is the same for everyone in such a hood, then I think we may have 4 neighborhoods in total (possibly with 1/4 players each?), each neighborhood being a different "corner" of the room.


I re-stated
this exact reason
in neighborhood, where I had the luxury of linking to the exact passage that it referenced. That's all I've ever mentioned about a fourth neighborhood Boon. I've never speculated beyond that or mentioned it beyond that. Everything that has followed about 4th neighborhood has been you and Aneninen.

I'm getting fed-up with your shenanigans Boon, and PR claim or not I will lynch you if you keep up this bullshit.

In post 2800, goodmorning wrote:
In post 2626, Boonskiies wrote:During the night Iz brought up how there is 'probably' a fourth neighborhood. He also said he is new to neighborhoods and doesn't know the ideal play in these situations. Those two don't match up. Why would you think there is probably a fourth neighborhood if you are new to them unless one of your scum partners are in it, and they told you during the night?

He literally said that the word "corner" implied that there were four.
Now, I don't know why he assumes rooms are square/rectangular, but - oh wait. Rooms ARE usually square/rectangular.
Do you not pay attention to the words people say???
I have the comprehensive ability of a vegetable.
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Post Post #3049 (ISO) » Wed Nov 05, 2014 11:46 pm

Post by AxleGreaser »

In post 3047, Izariael wrote:If he was trying to pull the night 1 kill onto him, then why is he scumreading me for not dying?


Now thats a good question
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