Mafia 66: Freelancer - Game over!


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Post Post #13 (isolation #0) » Fri Jun 08, 2007 10:57 pm

Post by ButteBlues »

Vote: johhan


wtf two 'h's? :x
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Post Post #75 (isolation #1) » Sun Jun 10, 2007 3:36 pm

Post by ButteBlues »

Sir Tornado wrote:Right now, I am suspicious of everyone and have no clue how to catch the SKs who would not be working in tandem but individually. I suspect the best way to catch them would be by just randomly voting people off.

If you want a random bandwagon, I would suggest jumping to Givlmrak, because that seems to be the biggest one. I haven't got anything against him at all... (in fact, I voted for him before the bandwagon even started) but, I think in this game, randomly voting people off might be our best chance.

The probability is not so great on day 1. We have to hit 3 people from 18. 4 people get eliminated each day and night cycle (unless we get SK in the first hit, or 2 or more SK decide to NK the same person)

Furthermore, the SKs won't be defending each other either. Heck, they don't even know each other! In fact, as of now, there is absolutely no difference between a SK and a townie, except the fact that the SK can kill at night. So, I find it hard to see how a SK might slip up here.

Anyone got any ideas other than randomly voting people off? Because, as I see it, as the town gets empty, the chances of hitting the SKs increase. However, even though the task seems impossible right now, I would be very surprised if we get a SK victory in this one...
This is a good post.

Anyhoo, to answer your question, it'll either take a random vote or a really dumb mistake on someone's part to get a lynch going.
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Post Post #107 (isolation #2) » Tue Jun 12, 2007 12:49 pm

Post by ButteBlues »

Actually, I think DYH is spot-on here.

Think about it - we only have vanillas and SKs here. In either case, someone _needs_ to be lynched each day for likely the entire length of the game. We need to use what advantages we can to route out the SKs.

Realistically speaking, since there are no power roles to accidentally kill, by lynching lurkers as long as there's no one of suspicion simply: (a) discourages the SKs from lurking, thereby opening opportunity for them to make a mistake, (b) narrows the field should a townie be lynched.
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Post Post #117 (isolation #3) » Tue Jun 12, 2007 4:21 pm

Post by ButteBlues »

ryan wrote:What up about a no lynch than? Wouldn't that give us about as much information as a random one?
You can't possibly be serious... :roll:
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Post Post #143 (isolation #4) » Wed Jun 13, 2007 5:51 pm

Post by ButteBlues »

That's voteworthy enough for me for Day 1.

Unvote, Vote: Blahgo
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Post Post #157 (isolation #5) » Thu Jun 14, 2007 2:00 pm

Post by ButteBlues »

Battle Mage wrote:Ryan, how much will we learn WITH a lynch?
answer: Jack-all.
We need discussion, and various bandwagons, and PATIENCE to lure out scum. im not opposed to a fairly random lynch today, but i think killing the first person we set eyes on, with NO arguments, is pointless.
Do you honestly think that we will find a more worthy lynch candidate on _day one_?

I mean, in all honesty, the chance of any serious discussion fleshing out any information, especially in light of the setup, is slim to none.


Patience for luring out the SKs can come when we actually have something to go off of, but as of right now, we don't have _anything_ to go on.


Unless you're advocating a nolynch, in which case, I can only roll my eyes at you.
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Post Post #183 (isolation #6) » Fri Jun 15, 2007 9:52 pm

Post by ButteBlues »

DYH said everything I wanted to, so I won't repeat it.
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Post Post #192 (isolation #7) » Sun Jun 17, 2007 9:38 pm

Post by ButteBlues »

Mastermind of Sin wrote:Why is everyone still voting Blahgo? He is not scum.
Proof?

Yeah, that's what I thought.

Vote stands.
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Post Post #236 (isolation #8) » Tue Jun 19, 2007 3:46 am

Post by ButteBlues »

Okay, seriously, this little pissing contest needs to stop, otherwise I'll simply support wagons to lynch both of you for derailing what could be worthwhile conversation with a bunch of petty fucking bickering.

That said, there are way too many outspoken folk who are afraid to lynch in a game that can't be won unless the town plays aggressively. That's bad, folks. Very bad.
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Post Post #251 (isolation #9) » Tue Jun 19, 2007 8:31 am

Post by ButteBlues »

As previously noted, Lowell's actually contributing, therefore,
UNVOTE
.

That said, I've no qualms about jumping on a BM bandwagon at this point. However, being the kind and gentle soul I am, I'm going to give BM an opportunity to convince me that he's not the right play for today before levying a vote.
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Post Post #260 (isolation #10) » Thu Jun 21, 2007 9:30 am

Post by ButteBlues »

He had his one post.

Vote: BM
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Post Post #300 (isolation #11) » Mon Jun 25, 2007 1:04 am

Post by ButteBlues »

Unvote: BM


There are way too many replacements this early in the friggin game.
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Post Post #324 (isolation #12) » Mon Jun 25, 2007 11:43 pm

Post by ButteBlues »

Mastermind of Sin wrote:Any scumtells that depend on someone defending a certain player or what not are generally null and void in this setup. However, most other scumtells still apply, because SKs can do them as well.
However, in this type of setup, the town needs to be extremely aggressive in order to win. Currently, most of the town is not doing this. As a result, some of the town who actually _understand_ that playing aggressive in this setup is the only way to win are coming off as scummy to those who don't.
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Post Post #343 (isolation #13) » Tue Jun 26, 2007 11:21 pm

Post by ButteBlues »

Mastermind of Sin wrote:Why would a no lynch be bad in this situation? I would rather no lynch than lynch randomly. If we no lynch, we lose no one. If we lynch randomly, we most likely lose a townie. Having no one die is better than having a townie die. That's why we need to make an informed lynch instead of randomly wagoning, because that's not going to help us.
A random lynch has been and always will be better than a no lynch. This is basic friggin theory. You should know better. In fact, I'm damned sure that any player who's been here more than a week knows this.

Unvote, Vote: Mastermind of Sin


No lynch'ing in this game is a death wish. I'm confident that any player worth their salt knows this. So either you've got to be a complete noob at mafia or you're scum. Plain as that.
theopor_COD wrote:Currently I don't feel too unhappy about no-lynching in this situation. It's not like a real game where obviously we can learn from voting patterns and lynches etc to catch mafia. If we mislynch its one less townie tomorrow in all likelihood, then if three more die tonight we're already in a spot of bother. I don't particularly want to vote Jordan or Ryan at any least.
In setups like this, it takes an aggressive town who's willing to lynch to win. It's been proven time and time again.
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Post Post #344 (isolation #14) » Tue Jun 26, 2007 11:22 pm

Post by ButteBlues »

EBWODP:

Note: It's completely obvious that MoS isn't a noob, so he's got to be scum.
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Post Post #377 (isolation #15) » Wed Jun 27, 2007 1:15 pm

Post by ButteBlues »

Mastermind of Sin wrote:
ButteBlues wrote:
Mastermind of Sin wrote:Why would a no lynch be bad in this situation? I would rather no lynch than lynch randomly. If we no lynch, we lose no one. If we lynch randomly, we most likely lose a townie. Having no one die is better than having a townie die. That's why we need to make an informed lynch instead of randomly wagoning, because that's not going to help us.
A random lynch has been and always will be better than a no lynch. This is basic friggin theory. You should know better. In fact, I'm damned sure that any player who's been here more than a week knows this.

Unvote, Vote: Mastermind of Sin


No lynch'ing in this game is a death wish. I'm confident that any player worth their salt knows this. So either you've got to be a complete noob at mafia or you're scum. Plain as that.
Ah, yes. Basic game theory. However, you forget the fact that this game does not apply to basic game theory.
Every game ever is subject to the relevancy of some or most of basic game theory.
Not to mention the fact that there are numerous situations where no lynch is better than a random lynch. For example, when you get down to a point in the game where there is only 1 kill a night, and there are 10 or less people alive, at an even number, you should always no lynch to get it to an odd number of people. This is
basic friggin theory
, ya know.
Yeah - there are also other times like when it's -1 to LYLO and nobody has a clue who scum is.

The current status of the game is nothing like that. You're talking about a moot point here. It's really essentially a strawman when you boil it down.
Anyways, the normal rules do not apply to this game.
You should rethink that. Basic theory, while not universal or ubiquitous for all setups, is often quite relevant in some part or another in every setup imaginable.
This is not
mafia
per se. There is no informed minority. We have an uninformed majority against and uninformed minority.
Which is no different from any other setup with only SK as scum, except there are no power roles.
There is no advanatage to the SKs, because they only know their role, and no one else's.
Yes there is. There are no power roles among the town by which scum can be ratted out.
This setup would be slightly more balanced if each SK had a list of a few people that were guaranteed to be protown, just to help them make lynch and NK decisions.
Are you
serious
?
Sure, anyone who's played more than a week knows that a random lynch is better than a no lynch. However, anyone that's played more than 2 weeks should know that no game theory applies in 100% of all situations, and that one should always be willing to question game theory when it seems unsound.
But it
does
apply in this setup, so stop avoiding the claims I've put forward and start answering for your play throughout this game.
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Post Post #391 (isolation #16) » Thu Jun 28, 2007 11:46 am

Post by ButteBlues »

Mastermind of Sin wrote:
ButteBlues wrote:
Mastermind of Sin wrote:
ButteBlues wrote:
Mastermind of Sin wrote:Why would a no lynch be bad in this situation? I would rather no lynch than lynch randomly. If we no lynch, we lose no one. If we lynch randomly, we most likely lose a townie. Having no one die is better than having a townie die. That's why we need to make an informed lynch instead of randomly wagoning, because that's not going to help us.
A random lynch has been and always will be better than a no lynch. This is basic friggin theory. You should know better. In fact, I'm damned sure that any player who's been here more than a week knows this.

Unvote, Vote: Mastermind of Sin


No lynch'ing in this game is a death wish. I'm confident that any player worth their salt knows this. So either you've got to be a complete noob at mafia or you're scum. Plain as that.
Ah, yes. Basic game theory. However, you forget the fact that this game does not apply to basic game theory.
Every game ever is subject to the relevancy of some or most of basic game theory.
Not to mention the fact that there are numerous situations where no lynch is better than a random lynch. For example, when you get down to a point in the game where there is only 1 kill a night, and there are 10 or less people alive, at an even number, you should always no lynch to get it to an odd number of people. This is
basic friggin theory
, ya know.
Yeah - there are also other times like when it's -1 to LYLO and nobody has a clue who scum is.

The current status of the game is nothing like that. You're talking about a moot point here. It's really essentially a strawman when you boil it down.
You're the one who said that a random lynch will
always
be better than a no lynch.
And I'm sure I'm the _only_ person on the face of the Earth who's ever used a hyperbole to get a point across too.
I merely proved your base assumption wrong, which makes your entire argument unstable.
What you did was take a hyperbole and apply it at literal value rather than looking at the intended message it sends.
You can't dismiss this fact just because the example I used does not apply to this game.
What you said was that not all of the basic theory applies in every game. Okay. Fine. I'm not arguing.

But that doesn't mean that it is applicable, which is why I _can_ dismiss the argument.
I used an example that is a set in stone obvious situation where your assumption is wrong. I can hardly use the current game as an example, since this is the situation we are arguing over. I'd really like to see you argue that the example I gave applies to your assumption that a random lynch is better.
That hypothetical is not the point here. It is completely moot. It offers no relevancy to this game whatsoever.
Anyways, the normal rules do not apply to this game.
You should rethink that. Basic theory, while not universal or ubiquitous for all setups, is often quite relevant in some part or another in every setup imaginable.
I didn't say that it wasn't relevant to some part of this game. You cut off my statement where I explained what made this game different from others. Taking my quote out of context isn't going to help you.[/quote]

Since we're taking things at face value here, you're the one who claimed your statement was ubiquitous first.
This is not
mafia
per se. There is no informed minority. We have an uninformed majority against and uninformed minority.
Which is no different from any other setup with only SK as scum, except there are no power roles.
And what's your point?

Just because there could be another setup with only SK as scum doesn't change the fact that not all basic theory applies.[/quote]

Much of basic theory applies in such setups as I described. There's a slight additional layer of complexity in this one. Other than that, not much has changed.

Besides, as I said, my statement was an obvious hyperbole intended to drive a point home rather than be entirely, 100% accurate.
Not to mention the fact that I have never played in a setup on Mafiascum where there has only been an SK as scum.
That's unfortunate.

I have played in SK-only setups numerous times (though, not here).
The only other setup I have seen where there is no informed minority was Committee Mafia, in which the normal basic theory did NOT apply. I would know, since I modded the game.
I find it hard to believe any one setup defies _every_ bit of basic theory, but again, hyperboles are fun, aren't they? ;)
There is no advanatage to the SKs, because they only know their role, and no one else's.
Yes there is. There are no power roles among the town by which scum can be ratted out.
That's not an advantage. That's taking away an advantage from the town.[/quote]

Okay, so in a more common setup, you'd have the informed, powered minority versus the powered majority. Let's say the power of each side equates to one apple. Now, we're going to make the minority uninformed, but keep their power, and take the power away from the majority. One side still has the power roles (ie. killing roles/SKs), while the other relies entirely on the lynch to win.

That's giving the minority a hand, even if they're playing blind.

Sure, anyone who's played more than a week knows that a random lynch is better than a no lynch. However, anyone that's played more than 2 weeks should know that no game theory applies in 100% of all situations, and that one should always be willing to question game theory when it seems unsound.
But it
does
apply in this setup, so stop avoiding the claims I've put forward and start answering for your play throughout this game.
Are you
serious
?
Need I say more?

Seriously, though. I have nothing to answer for. You have made no claims against me. Your only "claim", per se, is that I'm either a noob or scum.[/quote]

My claim is that since you're not a noob, and your entire stance on the "let's no lynch" thing is only something a noob _would_ say, you've got to be scum. There is absolutely _no_ logical reason not to lynch on Day 1 in this setup.
All other statements you have made regarding your suspicion of me have been addressed repeatedly, in this post and others.
You still haven't made any case as to why a no lynch is actually the right play that has stuck.
If anything, you're the one who's been avoiding.
Oh?
You have yet to explain how it could possible apply in this setup, whereas I have given reasons for it not to apply.
You supplied hypothetical scenarios where a No Lynch is the right play. Awesome. Have a cookie. But they're entirely irrelevant to THIS setup. You've explained nothing.
All you have said so far is that "it
does
apply in this setup". That's not a very convincing reason, and frankly, I'm tiring of hearing you repeat your useless propoganda.
To be candid, I'm surprised no one else has taken as much notice of your proposed No Lynching this early in the game.
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Post Post #396 (isolation #17) » Fri Jun 29, 2007 2:36 am

Post by ButteBlues »

Mastermind of Sin wrote:I'm omitting the top part, because it is rather pointless and off-topic for us to argue those things, as I'm sure you agree. It just wastes space and time for the both of us. I also edited out parts where we both would've just degenerated into mindless insults over something that wasn't really relevant.
Quite.
ButteBlues wrote:
This is not
mafia
per se. There is no informed minority. We have an uninformed majority against and uninformed minority.
Which is no different from any other setup with only SK as scum, except there are no power roles.
And what's your point?

Just because there could be another setup with only SK as scum doesn't change the fact that not all basic theory applies.
Much of basic theory applies in such setups as I described. There's a slight additional layer of complexity in this one. Other than that, not much has changed.
Much of basic theory does apply. However, it is not a fact that random lynches are better than no lynch in an SK-only setup. That's what we're arguing about. There is no proof that your statement is correct in the other setups you described, so we do not know whether or not it is true in this setup.[/quote]

For Day 1 it _is_. At a later point in the game when we don't have 15 town, then sure, I can see scenarios where NL is definitely the right play.
There is no advanatage to the SKs, because they only know their role, and no one else's.
Yes there is. There are no power roles among the town by which scum can be ratted out.
That's not an advantage. That's taking away an advantage from the town.
Okay, so in a more common setup, you'd have the informed, powered minority versus the powered majority. Let's say the power of each side equates to one apple. Now, we're going to make the minority uninformed, but keep their power, and take the power away from the majority. One side still has the power roles (ie. killing roles/SKs), while the other relies entirely on the lynch to win.

That's giving the minority a hand, even if they're playing blind.
That's just wrong. The "common" setup is an informed, doubly-powered (kills and other abilities such as godfather) minority against a powered majority.[/quote]

That's dependent on a few things (number of players mainly), but sure, I can go with that.
You take away the power from both sides, leaving you with the powered, informed minority against the majority. This is the basic, balanced setup originally created by Dimma Davidoff in Moscow. This setup takes the informed minority and makes it uninformed, but gives it a few extra kills a night. Then it gives the majority even more people to balance out the extra kills, but does not make up for the fact that the minority is no longer informed. Sure, the game is still winnable for scum, but it's much harder now.
I think you're putting too little off-set in the increased number of kills. Sure, it is, by definition, harder for any one given scum to win because there's not a team of scum working together. On the other hand, the other scum are going to be getting nightly kills as well, to which the given SK afore-noted is immune. What it all boils down to, is we have three needles in a haystack and they have a damn good shot at this game.
Sure, anyone who's played more than a week knows that a random lynch is better than a no lynch. However, anyone that's played more than 2 weeks should know that no game theory applies in 100% of all situations, and that one should always be willing to question game theory when it seems unsound.
But it
does
apply in this setup, so stop avoiding the claims I've put forward and start answering for your play throughout this game.
Are you
serious
?
Need I say more?

Seriously, though. I have nothing to answer for. You have made no claims against me. Your only "claim", per se, is that I'm either a noob or scum.
My claim is that since you're not a noob, and your entire stance on the "let's no lynch" thing is only something a noob _would_ say, you've got to be scum. There is absolutely _no_ logical reason not to lynch on Day 1 in this setup.
There is also no logical reason to random lynch on Day 1. Which is why we should neither no lynch nor random lynch.
There are plenty of reasons for which a Day 1 lynch is a very good, and in many cases, necessary thing.

Especially given that in this setup we have no power roles amongst the town by which information can be gleaned (ie. cops), we need to start narrowing down the number of folks among the town who could be scum. Lynching, along with the SKs night kills, will accomplish this, and as a result, move us along towards ratting out the SKs and lynching _them_.
All you have said so far is that "it
does
apply in this setup". That's not a very convincing reason, and frankly, I'm tiring of hearing you repeat your useless propoganda.
To be candid, I'm surprised no one else has taken as much notice of your proposed No Lynching this early in the game.
You need to pay more attention before you get all gung-ho next time. Nowhere have I said that no lynch is my preferred plan of action right now. Do you see me voting No Lynch? No. That's because I want to have an informed lynch, which gives us a better chance of finding scum than either a no lynch or a random lynch. I merely support no lynch over the proposed random lynch, which would not help us at all.
[/quote]

This setup cannot possibly have an informed Day 1 lynch. Most setups don't. The fact of the matter is, in either case, for this Day, in order to start progressing, we simply need to make a lynch. If it has to be a random lynch in order to achieve it, then so be it. Then we can finally move on to the part of the game where we can start making informed lynches.
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Post Post #397 (isolation #18) » Fri Jun 29, 2007 2:58 am

Post by ButteBlues »

Mastermind of Sin wrote:I'm omitting the top part, because it is rather pointless and off-topic for us to argue those things, as I'm sure you agree. It just wastes space and time for the both of us. I also edited out parts where we both would've just degenerated into mindless insults over something that wasn't really relevant.
Quite.
ButteBlues wrote:
This is not
mafia
per se. There is no informed minority. We have an uninformed majority against and uninformed minority.
Which is no different from any other setup with only SK as scum, except there are no power roles.
And what's your point?

Just because there could be another setup with only SK as scum doesn't change the fact that not all basic theory applies.
Much of basic theory applies in such setups as I described. There's a slight additional layer of complexity in this one. Other than that, not much has changed.
Much of basic theory does apply. However, it is not a fact that random lynches are better than no lynch in an SK-only setup. That's what we're arguing about. There is no proof that your statement is correct in the other setups you described, so we do not know whether or not it is true in this setup.[/quote]

For Day 1 it _is_. At a later point in the game when we don't have 15 town, then sure, I can see scenarios where NL is definitely the right play.
There is no advanatage to the SKs, because they only know their role, and no one else's.
Yes there is. There are no power roles among the town by which scum can be ratted out.
That's not an advantage. That's taking away an advantage from the town.
Okay, so in a more common setup, you'd have the informed, powered minority versus the powered majority. Let's say the power of each side equates to one apple. Now, we're going to make the minority uninformed, but keep their power, and take the power away from the majority. One side still has the power roles (ie. killing roles/SKs), while the other relies entirely on the lynch to win.

That's giving the minority a hand, even if they're playing blind.
That's just wrong. The "common" setup is an informed, doubly-powered (kills and other abilities such as godfather) minority against a powered majority.[/quote]

That's dependent on a few things (number of players mainly), but sure, I can go with that.
You take away the power from both sides, leaving you with the powered, informed minority against the majority. This is the basic, balanced setup originally created by Dimma Davidoff in Moscow. This setup takes the informed minority and makes it uninformed, but gives it a few extra kills a night. Then it gives the majority even more people to balance out the extra kills, but does not make up for the fact that the minority is no longer informed. Sure, the game is still winnable for scum, but it's much harder now.
I think you're putting too little off-set in the increased number of kills. Sure, it is, by definition, harder for any one given scum to win because there's not a team of scum working together. On the other hand, the other scum are going to be getting nightly kills as well, to which the given SK afore-noted is immune. What it all boils down to, is we have three needles in a haystack and they have a damn good shot at this game.
Sure, anyone who's played more than a week knows that a random lynch is better than a no lynch. However, anyone that's played more than 2 weeks should know that no game theory applies in 100% of all situations, and that one should always be willing to question game theory when it seems unsound.
But it
does
apply in this setup, so stop avoiding the claims I've put forward and start answering for your play throughout this game.
Are you
serious
?
Need I say more?

Seriously, though. I have nothing to answer for. You have made no claims against me. Your only "claim", per se, is that I'm either a noob or scum.
My claim is that since you're not a noob, and your entire stance on the "let's no lynch" thing is only something a noob _would_ say, you've got to be scum. There is absolutely _no_ logical reason not to lynch on Day 1 in this setup.
There is also no logical reason to random lynch on Day 1. Which is why we should neither no lynch nor random lynch.
There are plenty of reasons for which a Day 1 lynch is a very good, and in many cases, necessary thing.

Especially given that in this setup we have no power roles amongst the town by which information can be gleaned (ie. cops), we need to start narrowing down the number of folks among the town who could be scum. Lynching, along with the SKs night kills, will accomplish this, and as a result, move us along towards ratting out the SKs and lynching _them_.
All you have said so far is that "it
does
apply in this setup". That's not a very convincing reason, and frankly, I'm tiring of hearing you repeat your useless propoganda.
To be candid, I'm surprised no one else has taken as much notice of your proposed No Lynching this early in the game.
You need to pay more attention before you get all gung-ho next time. Nowhere have I said that no lynch is my preferred plan of action right now. Do you see me voting No Lynch? No. That's because I want to have an informed lynch, which gives us a better chance of finding scum than either a no lynch or a random lynch. I merely support no lynch over the proposed random lynch, which would not help us at all.
[/quote]

This setup cannot possibly have an informed Day 1 lynch. Most setups don't. The fact of the matter is, in either case, for this Day, in order to start progressing, we simply need to make a lynch. If it has to be a random lynch in order to achieve it, then so be it. Then we can finally move on to the part of the game where we can start making informed lynches.
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Post Post #407 (isolation #19) » Fri Jun 29, 2007 8:18 am

Post by ButteBlues »

Mastermind of Sin wrote:Is it just me, or does it seem like we're about to descend into the argumentative equivalent of "I'm right! No, I'm right! You're wrong and I'm right...etc, etc..."? Might just be me, though.
I should hope not.
ButteBlues wrote:
ButteBlues wrote:
This is not
mafia
per se. There is no informed minority. We have an uninformed majority against and uninformed minority.
Which is no different from any other setup with only SK as scum, except there are no power roles.
And what's your point?

Just because there could be another setup with only SK as scum doesn't change the fact that not all basic theory applies.
Much of basic theory applies in such setups as I described. There's a slight additional layer of complexity in this one. Other than that, not much has changed.
Much of basic theory does apply. However, it is not a fact that random lynches are better than no lynch in an SK-only setup. That's what we're arguing about. There is no proof that your statement is correct in the other setups you described, so we do not know whether or not it is true in this setup.
For Day 1 it _is_. At a later point in the game when we don't have 15 town, then sure, I can see scenarios where NL is definitely the right play.
Hardly. You have yet to
prove
that random lynching is better than No Lynch right now. You are assuming that is a given, and going from there. It's not a given at all, and that's what I'm asking you to convince me of. With 15 town, we only have a 1/6 chance of catching scum by lynching randomly. 1/6 is not good enough for me to want to random lynch.
Because if we lynch today, then tomorrow, assuming each SK hits a valid target, and even erring to the point of claiming we didn't lynch an SK, then we have a 22% chance of lynching an SK as opposed to a 20% chance.

Following this trend, and assuming we again lynch incorrectly (woe to us if we do), we then have a 30% chance of lynching correctly. On the other hand, if we NL today, and then (as will likely happen) lynch wrong tomorrow, then we're looking at a mere 27% chance of lynching correctly. If we NL twice in a row, it goes down to 25%.

Statistically speaking, we have a better chance of successfully lynching SKs if we make a lynch today, and another tomorrow.
You take away the power from both sides, leaving you with the powered, informed minority against the majority. This is the basic, balanced setup originally created by Dimma Davidoff in Moscow. This setup takes the informed minority and makes it uninformed, but gives it a few extra kills a night. Then it gives the majority even more people to balance out the extra kills, but does not make up for the fact that the minority is no longer informed. Sure, the game is still winnable for scum, but it's much harder now.
I think you're putting too little off-set in the increased number of kills. Sure, it is, by definition, harder for any one given scum to win because there's not a team of scum working together. On the other hand, the other scum are going to be getting nightly kills as well, to which the given SK afore-noted is immune. What it all boils down to, is we have three needles in a haystack and they have a damn good shot at this game.
They do have a good shot at this game. That doesn't mean we should make it easier for them by random lynching.
As shown above, the game gives them a better chance of not being killed should we not lynch.
There are plenty of reasons for which a Day 1 lynch is a very good, and in many cases, necessary thing.
Care to elaborate on this "plenty" reasons?
Narrowing the pool of possible scum increases one's chances of finding said scum.
Especially given that in this setup we have no power roles amongst the town by which information can be gleaned (ie. cops), we need to start narrowing down the number of folks among the town who could be scum. Lynching, along with the SKs night kills, will accomplish this, and as a result, move us along towards ratting out the SKs and lynching _them_.
There is NEVER a reason to want to reduce the number of protown players alive, unless you are scum.
There is always reason to try and eliminate the number of potential SKs when it is reasonable to do so.
All you have said so far is that "it
does
apply in this setup". That's not a very convincing reason, and frankly, I'm tiring of hearing you repeat your useless propoganda.
To be candid, I'm surprised no one else has taken as much notice of your proposed No Lynching this early in the game.
You need to pay more attention before you get all gung-ho next time. Nowhere have I said that no lynch is my preferred plan of action right now. Do you see me voting No Lynch? No. That's because I want to have an informed lynch, which gives us a better chance of finding scum than either a no lynch or a random lynch. I merely support no lynch over the proposed random lynch, which would not help us at all.
This setup cannot possibly have an informed Day 1 lynch. Most setups don't. The fact of the matter is, in either case, for this Day, in order to start progressing, we simply need to make a lynch. If it has to be a random lynch in order to achieve it, then so be it. Then we can finally move on to the part of the game where we can start making informed lynches.
Every setup can make an informed D1 lynch. You are clearly too used to relying on power roles in this game. In Himalayan mafia, there were 4 mafia and a bunch of townies, and the town lynched scum the first two days of the game. This wasn't by accident, we made informed lynches and caught scum without the help of power roles. We can do the same thing in this setup, and have a better chance at catching scum than a random lynch.[/quote]

However, that is not the same for the reasons cited by YagamiLight.
ryan wrote:A few comments about why a no lynch setup were eluding to the fact that SK's could knock eachother off, I was just pointing out that wasn't true
If an SK targets another SK, they will not die. In turn, they will know that said person _is_ another SK, and will attempt to get them lynched.
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Post Post #408 (isolation #20) » Fri Jun 29, 2007 8:21 am

Post by ButteBlues »

Mastermind of Sin wrote:It allows for
different
scumtells. Just because there is no one working together does not mean that there are no scumtells. People do plenty of scummy things without having relation to another person. Any protown person that is only looking out for themself might as well give up now, because that's not going to help us. If Ksc0pe happens to be town by some stretch of the imagination, he's got the right idea in looking out more for the town than himself. I don't necessarily agree with his plan of action, but at least he has the right sentiment.
Right, but the thing is, a Day 1 lynch of scum was possible in Himalayan mafia because the teamwork gave it away. There is no informed group in this setup, which eliminates any potential scumtells on Day 1.
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Post Post #429 (isolation #21) » Sat Jun 30, 2007 2:14 pm

Post by ButteBlues »

Mastermind of Sin wrote:What do you think I've been trying to do? I've already found two possible scum, and a bunch of idiots are running around talking about how it's impossible to get scumtells and how we should just randomly select someone to die. It's idiocy...
Agreed with Qman.

Pray tell who these two scum are and explain what makes you sure that they are scum.
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Post Post #432 (isolation #22) » Sun Jul 01, 2007 4:12 am

Post by ButteBlues »

JordanA24 wrote:
ButteBlues wrote:
Mastermind of Sin wrote:What do you think I've been trying to do? I've already found two possible scum, and a bunch of idiots are running around talking about how it's impossible to get scumtells and how we should just randomly select someone to die. It's idiocy...
Agreed with Qman.

Pray tell who these two scum are and explain what makes you sure that they are scum.
I think he already has, Ryan and K-Scope wasn't it(?)
If that's the case, I'd still like to hear his reasoning.
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Post Post #551 (isolation #23) » Wed Jul 04, 2007 10:35 am

Post by ButteBlues »

I'm back from surgery.

Unvote, Vote: Ryan


Your attack on DYH was absolutely idiotic.
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Post Post #552 (isolation #24) » Wed Jul 04, 2007 10:36 am

Post by ButteBlues »

EBWODP:

I need to make posts faster rather than setting on the post page forever. :(
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Post Post #573 (isolation #25) » Wed Jul 11, 2007 3:37 am

Post by ButteBlues »

Jalyn wrote:
ButteBlues wrote:EBWODP:

I need to make posts faster rather than setting on the post page forever. :(
Almost 20 minutes? (Vote 9 hits at 4:16, hammer comes at 4:35 (Central Times))
Yes.

I frequent a lot of places, so I tend to just open all the threads that I need to check across all those sites at once and then just go through them one by one. It's not uncommon for any one post to be made after the tab's been there for an hour or so.
DYH wrote:
Qman wrote:
JordanA24 wrote:I'm shocked K-Scope didn't turn up scum.
My surprise was that MoS and both of the people he thought were scum are all town, and now dead.
Not surprised. I told you there were no scum tells day one in this setup. Why Ryan tried to fabricate a case is beyond me. Frankly, someone needed to die to get the damn day over with, anyhow.

However, with only two kills, we might just get some valuable information today.
Yeah, pretty much.



In other news, I'll be gone for much of next week for camp.
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Post Post #587 (isolation #26) » Fri Jul 13, 2007 11:36 am

Post by ButteBlues »

Sir Tornado wrote:
Lowell wrote:Only 2 kills, but 3 SKs? Hmm...

My plan today is to just sit around until someone says "hey, *wink wink* I have good reason to think we should kill player X, *wink wink*".

Then I'll kill player X.

Then his accuser.



Sounds pretty good to me. Anyone?
But I will
Vote
you before you
kill
anyone at all.

Vote: Lowell
That slip was far too odd for me as well.

Vote: Lowell
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Post Post #602 (isolation #27) » Sat Jul 14, 2007 3:54 am

Post by ButteBlues »

YagamiLight wrote:I don't see Lowell's post as scummy for the kill part everyone is looking at, but the way he says "I'll" (referring to himself) kill them, not we should kill/lynch them, or anything about the town.
Anyone who has ever played mafia knows that "kill" and "lynch" are in no way synonymous in the game. This is far too odd a slip-up to _not_ vote him.
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Post Post #603 (isolation #28) » Sat Jul 14, 2007 3:57 am

Post by ButteBlues »

EBWODP: To elaborate, "kill" and "lynch" in mafia do not mean anything alike other than they result in the death of a person. We all know a lynch happens in the day and is decided by vote, whereas a kill is, beyond usually being a night ability reserved for scum, an ability wherein an individual player kills another.

I just think that he would drop "kill" instead of "lynch", especially considering he specifically said "I'll" instead of "We'll", is more than a simple mistake. He's played mafia before. He knows what both words mean. That whole part of the post is so ridiculously scummy it's not even funny.
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Post Post #609 (isolation #29) » Sun Jul 15, 2007 11:59 pm

Post by ButteBlues »

Just like to remind everyone of what I posted earlier this past week:

Starting today I am away at camp for a week. Shall see you all next Monday. Bye.
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Post Post #615 (isolation #30) » Mon Jul 16, 2007 11:00 am

Post by ButteBlues »

Lowell wrote:Yep. You're all dumb. So it goes.

The point I was making is that one of the SKs knows another SK... probably.

So I'm going to suss out who that is, and kill the accused. Then kill the accuser, for he must also be scum. 2/3 dead, town happy.

Note to all: SKs CAN'T KILL EACH OTHER AT NIGHT. So, even by the odd "he confessed" logic, I would have confessed to something that isn't possible.

Further note to all: Call this a metagaming issue, but I dont' really believe in "slips". This isn't live. Folks have as long as they need to reread posts and correct them for incriminating words. The way to find scum is behavior at different points in the game, not by "slip-ups"
(I managed to sneak away to check up on the thread)

And yet, you STILL refer to specifically YOU KILLING SOMEONE ELSE, in spite of the fact that kill != lynch that has been made time and time again.

And since you, yourself, have said it's impossible to make "slips" here - if that's the case, then why have you done it TWICE IN A ROW? That to me shows you're either blowing smoke out your ass or you're scum.

I think it's the latter.
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Post Post #636 (isolation #31) » Tue Jul 17, 2007 11:04 am

Post by ButteBlues »

Anyone who doesn't say Lowell is the right play is either an absolute moron or suffering from brain damage.

That's all I've got to say on the matter.
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Post Post #669 (isolation #32) » Wed Jul 18, 2007 2:00 pm

Post by ButteBlues »

Lowell wrote:I'm a dayvig, but without killing powers.
Post #2 in this thread wrote:
Game Specific Rules


I'm just PMing you your role. You can come and read it in thread, since everyone knows it.

Nights are as short as possible, because I just need kill targets from the SKs, and then night will resume as quickly as possible.

Each SK has a unique kill method, to tell them apart, which is revealed on their death.

A stalemate ending with 2 SKs is a loss for both, not a draw. You /cows.

If a kill is not submitted, then you'll just kill randomly.

Although I have no idea why you would want to, since there's no negative possibility for you, you don't have to make a kill every night. But, I see no reason why not. If you've taken leave of your senses... wait, SK. Whoops. If you're even more insane, and decide not to kill, then PM the mod that you don't kill. Just accept the fact that if you lose, then I'll mock you mercilessly when you're lynched. Expect your house to be full of pink ribbons, for example.

Open Role PMs


15 Townies
3 SKs

Townie wrote:You're just a creative sort, living in Redtown, but you've got to do something about these Serial Killers.

Despite the fact that you're very creative, have tons of different hobbies, and are a very interesting person, that doesn't alter the fact that you can do nothing at night.

If a SK decides to kill you, you're dead. If two SK decide to kill you, then you'll just be killed by the first one, and your remains will be abused by the second. If three SK decide to kill you, then you're definitely dead.

But you're still important, since you can vote, discuss, accuse, and be generally a good SK hunter.

And in case it's not obvious enough, you win when all the SKs are dead.

To confirm, just PM the mod that you confirm or something along those lines.
SK wrote:You don't need me to tell you the reasons you're going around killing people, or how you're going to kill them. In fact, you need to tell me.

Each night, you can target someone to kill in your own special way. If you target another SK, then you can't kill them because they're out killing. If, for some horribly unknown reason, they're not out killing, then they've locked the door. You cannot kill another SK at night. Stop trying.

You win by killing everything else in Redtown, except potted plants. You can understand them.

To confirm, PM the mod why you're a SK in Redtown, and your unique method of "disposal". By the way, just because there's some flavour in this town doesn't mean you have to listen to it. Hell, you could be a evil alien zombie robot vampire from the future, and I still wouldn't care.
(Note that I am not permitting evil alien zombie robot vampires. Even if they're from the past.)

Seriously, just lynch Lowell already.
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Post Post #742 (isolation #33) » Mon Jul 23, 2007 9:47 am

Post by ButteBlues »

I'm back from Millidgeville finally.

After reading everything, I have two things to say:

* My comment about the claim of kill-less dayvig was entirely way the heck out there. The best excuse I've got was I was working out in 90-degree weather for 8 hours straight prior.

* My vote on Lowell still stands, but Jordan, I feel, is lynch-worthy as well.
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Post Post #747 (isolation #34) » Mon Jul 23, 2007 6:11 pm

Post by ButteBlues »

JordanA24 wrote:
ButteBlues wrote:but Jordan, I feel, is lynch-worthy as well.
Why?
A handful of times throughout the game you have declared individuals are town based on WIFOM logic.
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Post Post #759 (isolation #35) » Tue Jul 24, 2007 2:02 pm

Post by ButteBlues »

JordanA24 wrote:Yeah, so that's why I like my theory better than Theo's. And #2 was another pointer on why his reason for lynching me is null, Theo is more lynch-worthy than I am, so why he's ignoring him is beyond me.
I'm more apt to distrust someone bandwagoning onto a hair-brained idea than the person who suggested such an idea to begin with for fairly obvious reasons.
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Post Post #768 (isolation #36) » Sat Jul 28, 2007 2:05 am

Post by ButteBlues »

JordanA24 wrote:So, JDodge appears from nowhere and places a vote on the biggest bandwagon without reason.
The fact that there are people in this game who _aren't_ voting for Lowell is amazing in its own right.
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Post Post #810 (isolation #37) » Wed Aug 01, 2007 8:58 am

Post by ButteBlues »

I'm back now. Storms had nuked my Internets. =/

I'm fine with a vote on Theo, but I want to re-read some more before hammering (unless my counting is wrong and my vote would not be the hammer).
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Post Post #814 (isolation #38) » Wed Aug 01, 2007 1:28 pm

Post by ButteBlues »

At Theo's request, I shall hammer so he no longer has to give a shit about this game. =\

Unvote, Vote: Theo
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Post Post #833 (isolation #39) » Sun Aug 19, 2007 11:48 pm

Post by ButteBlues »

This game is fairly dead at this point. :/

When can we expect replacements for the people who haven't posted by at least tomorrow?
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Post Post #840 (isolation #40) » Tue Aug 21, 2007 11:12 pm

Post by ButteBlues »

I'm pretty bored with this game and I've got other junk.

I'm a townie, but whatever.

Vote: ButteBlues
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