Mini 447 -Game Over

[thethirdnail]

vote: ryan

[thethirdnail]

Haschel, myself, and pickem voted for ryan. I don't believe it's

good

logic to presume one of those who voted for ryan (a confirmed townie) is a definite mafia. When I voted, I had one vote against me and chose to vote for someone who already had a vote to increase my chances of survival. However, I do think a mafia member would use the same reasoning to vote for ryan knowing he was a townie.

Having said that, there is nothing I can do to convince anyone which of these motives I used to make my vote. I will say that after I am lynched (I am the most likely candidate at this point) and you find out I was a townie, heavy suspicion should fall on those who voted for me immediately after ryan was modkilled (pickem and haschel). Both could be understood to be using the reason a mafia member would vote for Ryan, which I explained above.

And I will thank Arkest for rethinking his logic about me "obviously bandwagoning."

Vote: Pickemgenius

[thethirdnail]

I agree with Haschel thus far, and his logic for choosing me follows.

[thethirdnail]

For my reference if no one else's...

SpinWizard: Blue Zebra
Y.C: NO VOTE
Blue Zebra: pickemgenius
Relph: thethirdnail
thethirdnail: pickemgenius
Poison Ivy: NO VOTE
Haschel Cedricson: thethirdnail
pickemgenius: Haschel Cedricson
Arkest: Haschel Cedricson

[thethirdnail]

sorry if that is confusing, i'll attempt to rephrase.

My original motive for voting for ryan was to increase my chances of not being lynched. I did not want to random vote. I had one vote against me. I chose to vote for someone who had a vote against him, thus making it ryan -2, me -1...I have less votes, I get to keep playing.

I said that I was the most likely candidate to be lynched because:
I had the most votes against me at the time.
Any mafia member could add to the vote and kill a townie during the day.
Any townie had reason to suspect me via Hachel's logic.


Is this clearer?

[thethirdnail]

I don't understand why you are suspicious of me. the only evidence so far is that I voted for ryan.
I may not have used the best reasoning for doing so, but that leaves me guilty of poor play, not of being mafia. And that makes sense considering this is the first time I've played.

[thethirdnail]

A couple questions: how many mafia are likely left? Or I guess a better question is: what scenarios remain? Is the mafia likely in the minority?

I'm having trouble defending myself, though I feel if the only evidence anyone has for suspecting me is that I "may have started a bandwagon by voting for ryan." I understand that a lead is better than nothing, but I'm telling you I'm not mafia, and I'd hate to prove you wrong by having the mod tell you another townie was wastefully killed.

I feel I can only persuade anyone by
A) proving someone to be more likely to be scum
B) prove I am a townie

Neither are fully possible with the information available.

Evidence:
Ryan was a townie
3 were ready to lynch him before that was confirmed

After the above discussion, I'm starting to think noone among those who voted for ryan are scum.

[thethirdnail]

Haschel, I've been thinking about the scenarios, and you echoed one of my thoughts.

Poison ivy hasn't said anything. Can we prod him to chime in? Like: if you don't offer something, we're going to vote you out or at least close?

YC hasn't voted, but it seems he's considering evidence. So I'd say he's sitting comfortably under the radar.

Spin wizard is in a similar spot.

That leaves arkest, pickem, haschel, and myself.

At this point if I vote for any of those 4 and he turns out to be townie, suspicion would def. fall on me. Thus, I UNVOTE until we discuss this a little more.

For the record, of those 4, I think arkest is the least likely to be mafia.

[thethirdnail]

i mean...um....Arkest is mafia! look at his velour track suit, and that briefcase hand-cuffed to his wrist!

for now, I'm going to

VOTE: Poison Ivy

, to hopefully spur him into the discussion.

[thethirdnail]

alas, i have left Relph out of my analysis.

Relph has voted (presumably randomly) for me, and that has been the lot of his correspondence.

[thethirdnail]

It would absolutly dumb for scum to quick hammer on a L-2.

What if mafia already voted to get it to L-2 hoping a convince townie would hammer. Then, the mafia not only lynches a townie, but throws suspicion on the townie who hammered.

[thethirdnail]

EBWOP: "...hoping a

convinced

townie..."

[thethirdnail]

my name looks odd capitalized. I've used this handle for roughly 8 years. FOS: people who Capitalize my name.

[thethirdnail]

/pokes self in the eye

[thethirdnail]

sorry guys, i hadn't checked the post in awhile (due to lack of activity) and then i went to denver for a few days. Sorry i missed the deadline, though i don't think i would have changed my vote.

too bad arkest is gone, he had a lot of good things to say.

i'm thinking relph has not posted due to lost interest.

[thethirdnail]

My dissapearance can be explained by vacation to denver for a week.

All I can really say for my suspicious posts is that it is a result of an overzealous rookie eager to make an impact.

I think paradoxombie's evaluation is a valid one, and would also like to hear from spinwizard.