Open 554 - omg, like, jungle republic!! + game over~~


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Post Post #600 (ISO) » Mon Jun 02, 2014 5:14 pm

Post by Thor665 »

Just at a quick glance, it's been over 24 hours since either of them posted.

Since the point I joined the game Lia has made one post...saying she'll catch up. Yeah, how strange that I haven't interacted with her.
Johnny made 4 posts - half of them within 24 hours of me joining the game, during a period I think it is fair to say I was still asking people about their cases on me to understand that wagon - I didn't talk to him at that point because...I was doing other stuff. Another post he made was calling you out for the slip...which is a post I openly discussed and actually forced conversation about and made clear I agreed with him on. So it's not like I'm scared to associate myself with him.

Do you have any specific issues with my interactions with those two?
Other than generic mudslinging?
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Post Post #601 (ISO) » Mon Jun 02, 2014 7:25 pm

Post by Majiffy »

In post 597, Thor665 wrote:How does him making generic comments about not liking a town block that he isn't included in a town tell?
I just don't see jonscum putting himself out like that early-game when he doesn't need to.
In post 597, Thor665 wrote: So they were not on a given scum wagon and you take that as a towntell because you would expect bussing from partners and lynching from non-partners - do I have that right? Because if so, that would suggest I'm not scum. So I think I'm missing something in my understanding of what you're saying here.
I don't really care enough to bother looking back or giving accurate answers, frankly. Deal with it.
In post 597, Thor665 wrote: This doesn't - what are you even accusing me of here?
Your argument of "why aren't I killing x?" doesn't hold if you're mafia. Which has no kill.
In post 597, Thor665 wrote: :neutral:
No - it's not. If we lynch Mafia twice in a row then Wolf wins. I want to smack you for sounding so dumb.
Sober up before assessing these things.
Scum is scum, not wolf or mafia. I'm not discriminating at this point. If we get in the situation where I have to, then I will. Till then, IDGAF.
In post 597, Thor665 wrote: I understand you think this is a rebuttal of my thought.
I do not understand the point you're making...I understand that Seer hunts wolf, I don't see how that changes things from my suggestion.
I don't see how your suggestion helps us at all.
In post 597, Thor665 wrote:
Please tell me you grok this.
I grok but you're misconstruing my position.
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Post Post #602 (ISO) » Mon Jun 02, 2014 7:31 pm

Post by Marquis »

Image


votecount 4.6!!


Thor665 (2) ::
Majiffy, reinoe (L-2)
reinoe (1) ::
Justin Playfair (L-3)

not voting (3) ::
Lia, Not_Mafia, Thor665

deadline is 7 days from this post ::
(expired on 2014-06-09 16:00:00)

with 6 alive, it takes 4 votes to lynch!!
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Post Post #603 (ISO) » Tue Jun 03, 2014 12:02 am

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In post 591, Thor665 wrote:@N_M - the Thor/Justin case exists, though I'd note it's entirely from Justin's side of the equation. Roll that thought around in your head and see if wisdom comes.
That's true, but it's also true that one of those slots didn't do anthing up until day 4
In post 591, Thor665 wrote:Can you link me to your evidence of Justin not being a wolf[/qoute]
Here's the start of his push on Tier (the n2 kill) day 2, So I don't see the wolf railroading someone only to kill them, it wasn't as if Tier had Justin in a precarious position at the end of the day either.
In post 591, Thor665 wrote:and also maybe expand on why Lia makes sense as one? I have no sense of Lia
It's not a wolf specific read but a generic scum-read on her slot. I had a scum read on her predecessor
In post 592, Thor665 wrote:why has town not asked for the Seer to reveal?
I assume that if the seer had a guilty or significant enough innocents at his point they'd have claimed of their own accord.
Also, what is NM doing? Worst play I’ve ever seen.
I can't remember the last N_M post that wasn't bland, unimaginative and lame. Some shitposters are at least somewhat funny. You are the epitomy of the type of poster that nobody would miss if you were to suddenly disappear. You never add anything of value.
I'm guessing you haven't read the game and probably never will? Why even sign up to play?
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Post Post #604 (ISO) » Tue Jun 03, 2014 4:55 am

Post by Lia »

@ reinoe:
When you wrote and were you just using the vote counts, or had you read the thread before that?


@ Justin:
I get your first point about Majiffy but I'm not sure about the second. I think that if he was going to bus he would've gone all the way from the start.
In post 540, Justin Playfair wrote:As far as mnemonic goes I was initially very suspicious of his intent to hammer/no he'd never hammer on Finglove, but looking at it now what I can't quite make work is how it adds up to scum specific play as opposed to bad null play. It his intent to hammer post was meant as some kind of phantom bussing of his scumbuddy his immediate retraction under the mildest pressure draws more attention to him (and the exchange) than doing nothing at all. If retracting his intent to hammer was meant to derail the wagon why didn't he follow it up with any sort of...anything that might have led town in a different direction?
I don't see that as phantom bussing. More like he saw the wagon form, thought he needed to bus, and then realised there might be a chance for the wagon to fizzle out as it was still quite early. He left his vote on Wolfy despite saying it should probably be gotten rid of, leaving a foundation for another wagon while not taking responsibility for it, and avoiding being seen to push a mislynch on someone else.
In post 540, Justin Playfair wrote:Yes, it is easy to lynch the low content, lurker slot. But it's not a great way to hunt scum.
But is anyone doing this? This strikes me as a strawman.

As for your point about Katarina/Reinoe; that was one of my reasons for my original town read on her.

In post 541, reinoe wrote:4)You're saying there's a slim chance that Thor and I are a scum team? Let me dissuade you of all thoughts on that. Thor needs to be lynched today.
You say "Let me dissuade you", yet you don't then say anything to dissuade us.

In post 545, Thor665 wrote:Please explain this PoE? I'd like to see your cleared town reads mostly, and reasoning therefor.
I don't have any "cleared" town reads, if by cleared you mean confirmed, and at least one of those I thought were town (Kat/Majiffy/NM) must now be scum, so I'm reconsidering all of them. I'll dig out my original reasons for you when I've caught up.
In post 545, Thor665 wrote:Showcase the Finglove backtrack?
It's in post . And see my note on it earlier in this post.
In post 545, Thor665 wrote:I'm actually concerned that Majiffy, who is expressing concern about being alive, *hasn't* done this yet...are you sure he hasn't? And if not, why is he bewildered that he is alive but not doing NK analysis? That makes no sense.
That was from memory. I didn't check back to be certain.
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Post Post #605 (ISO) » Tue Jun 03, 2014 5:24 am

Post by Justin Playfair »

Hi Thor.

I know you didn't ask me specifically, but it seems to me that your seer plan is flawed.

If the seer claimed then these are our possible scenarios:

1. wolf is lynched. tomorrow dawns three town and two scum
2. mafia is lynched. werewolf kills seer. tomorrow dawns two town, one wolf, one mafia, and town loses the benefit of seer
3. town is lynched. werewolf chooses not to kill. tomorrow dawns two town, two mafia, and one wolf
4. town is lynched. knowing who the seer is the wolf chooses to make a kill (with two to one odds in its favor, even without whatever reads it has) and kills mafia. tomorrow dawns one wolf, one mafia, two town (one confirmed).
5. town is lynched. werewolf kills and misses mafia. mafia wins.

If the seer does not claim these are our possible scenarios:

1. same as above. seer can then claim and scum will be forced to either counterclaim or one town will be confirmed.
2. mafia is lynched. werewolf kills, with a one in four chance of hitting either the seer or the remaining mafia. if the mafia is hit morning dawns with three town, including the seer, and one wolf.
3. mafia is lynched. werewolf kills town. morning rises with two town (with a two in three chance of the seer surviving), one wolf and one mafia.
4. town is lynched. wolf chooses to make a kill (without benefit of knowing who the seer is) and either morning comes with two town, one wolf, and one mafia or mafia wins.

Basically the possibilities break down like this:

If we lynch mafia today the wolf will almost certainly kill the seer tonight, if the seer reveals. It deprives town of tonight's seer reading. However, if the seer does not reveal there is the possibility of the best case scenario for town, which is that mafia is lynched and mafia is killed by wolf. That would mean a three one split with the seer having at least one and possibly two night readings in an increasingly shrinking pool.

If we hit wolf the outcomes are identical whether seer reveals or not. the seer revealing does give town a better chance of catching scum, but beyond removing one from a group of six we have no way of knowing how much better a chance it gives us in catching the werewolf specifically. The one in six improvement doesn't really help town if we end up catching mafia, because it means the seer will almost certainly be killed during the night.

If we hit town the seer revealing itself could help narrow the wolf's options during the night and might help guide it to mafia, if it chooses to kill. But that seems mighty cold comfort, because it puts the fate of town into the claws of the wolf.

So in short, revealing the seer eliminates the best possible town swing and empowers the werewolf, unless the were wolf is lynched today. In exchange it increases by perhaps as small as a 1 in 6 chance town's likelihood of catching scum.
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Post Post #606 (ISO) » Tue Jun 03, 2014 5:38 am

Post by reinoe »

In post 604, Lia wrote:
@ reinoe:
When you wrote and were you just using the vote counts, or had you read the thread before that?
.
Just vote counts.
Scum typically need to fabricate reasons for scumreads...

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Post Post #607 (ISO) » Tue Jun 03, 2014 5:59 am

Post by Thor665 »

In post 601, Majiffy wrote:
In post 597, Thor665 wrote:How does him making generic comments about not liking a town block that he isn't included in a town tell?
I just don't see jonscum putting himself out like that early-game when he doesn't need to.
By generically opposing a town bloc that he wasn't in you think that made him a...target of the town bloc and thus was a risk a scum wouldn't take?
In post 601, Majiffy wrote:I don't really care enough to bother looking back or giving accurate answers, frankly. Deal with it.
:facepalm:
In post 601, Majiffy wrote:Scum is scum, not wolf or mafia. I'm not discriminating at this point. If we get in the situation where I have to, then I will. Till then, IDGAF.
We are in that situation.
In post 601, Majiffy wrote:I don't see how your suggestion helps us at all.
Confirms a town the day before lylo.
Takes the lynch options for a town player from 3/5 to 3/4.
Increases chance of town win by chaining Wolf to obligatory efforts in case town whiffs lynch today (Wolf would have a 2/3 shot to save the game for town on a mislynch)

The negatives are...possible, but I think minor. What are your issues with the plan?
In post 601, Majiffy wrote:I grok but you're misconstruing my position.
Clarify it?
In post 603, Not_Mafia wrote:That's true, but it's also true that one of those slots didn't do anthing up until day 4
Irrelevant - also, yes, he did.
In post 603, Not_Mafia wrote:Here's the start of his push on Tier (the n2 kill) day 2, So I don't see the wolf railroading someone only to kill them, it wasn't as if Tier had Justin in a precarious position at the end of the day either.
I can see the logic there, my counter might be that Justin Wolf legit thought that Tier was Mafia, but I see the logic.
In post 603, Not_Mafia wrote:It's not a wolf specific read but a generic scum-read on her slot. I had a scum read on her predecessor
:neutral: ...okay, so, since I asked for the scm read on her, and the answer is "it was on her predecessor" I guess now I'm obligated, since you chose not to volunteer the info, to ask 'whats the scum case on the predecessor?' Thanks for allowing me to play 20 questions. You can answer this one now.
In post 603, Not_Mafia wrote:I assume that if the seer had a guilty or significant enough innocents at his point they'd have claimed of their own accord.
Agreed, but there are other benefits - do you think the Seer shouldn't claim?
In post 604, Lia wrote:I don't have any "cleared" town reads, if by cleared you mean confirmed, and at least one of those I thought were town (Kat/Majiffy/NM) must now be scum, so I'm reconsidering all of them. I'll dig out my original reasons for you when I've caught up.
The "PoE" on me by most people appears to not be PoE at all...because almost no one actually has solid town reads.
In post 604, Lia wrote:
In post 545, Thor665 wrote:Showcase the Finglove backtrack?
It's in post . And see my note on it earlier in this post.
I looked at that, and while I'll agree it was sloppy play, I don't understand how it makes sense.
The only claim scum would be interested in would be a claim of Seer.

Mafia might care about that, but only as a Wolf hunting tool.
Wolves would care about it.

Functionally, by what happened, Mneumonic proved he wasn't a wolf, because he backed off of his ability to discover a Seer/push a mislynch.
He *might* be a a Mafia goon...except the lynch was *on* a Mafia Goon, so he had no reason to seek a claim in the first place, and no town credit to get from backing off of it.

If I squint really hard I can see your case, and it only works if you think I'm Mafia. Mostly I see evidence that I'm town. Now that I'm confirmed "not-Wolf" we should probably point out that we need to lynch a Wolf today for optimal town win.
In post 604, Lia wrote:That was from memory. I didn't check back to be certain.
:neutral:

I'll also point out that at a stage where Mafia's optimal goal is to not bus - Reinoe, Majiffy, Not_Mafia, and Lia are all okay with my lynch. That means I'm confirmed not Wolf and also confirmed not Mafia *except* with Justin.

The wagon on me can go away now.
In post 605, Justin Playfair wrote:I know you didn't ask me specifically, but it seems to me that your seer plan is flawed.
Oh noes!!!1!
In post 605, Justin Playfair wrote:So in short, revealing the seer eliminates the best possible town swing and empowers the werewolf, unless the were wolf is lynched today. In exchange it increases by perhaps as small as a 1 in 6 chance town's likelihood of catching scum.
I don't think you understand the best possible town swing.

The best town swing is to lynch the Wolf today.
Seer reveal focuses town to a 1/4 chance to nail Wolf.
Seer reveal focuses Mafia to a 1/3 chance.

The only thing better than a Seer reveal at this stage is a Mafia reveal, and then we sheep Mafia.
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Post Post #608 (ISO) » Tue Jun 03, 2014 6:02 am

Post by Justin Playfair »

In post 604, Lia wrote:I don't see that as phantom bussing. More like he saw the wagon form, thought he needed to bus, and then realised there might be a chance for the wagon to fizzle out as it was still quite early. He left his vote on Wolfy despite saying it should probably be gotten rid of, leaving a foundation for another wagon while not taking responsibility for it, and avoiding being seen to push a mislynch on someone else.

Hi Lia. I can buy that, I guess, but it seems such terrible, attention attracting play. I tend to have a blind spot for poorly playing scum because it's so hard to tell them from poorly playing town. I guess it was that added on to mnemonic's subsequent dwindling to the point of replacing out guided my opinion here.

In post 604, Lia wrote:In post 540, Justin Playfair wrote:Yes, it is easy to lynch the low content, lurker slot. But it's not a great way to hunt scum.


But is anyone doing this? This strikes me as a strawman.

How else would you describe mnemonic? 15 posts, including the one that said "hmmmm", the one that said "Now we know S&M is experienced", the two posts promising to do better, the two posts apologizing for not doing better, the post noting that the game was moving slowly, his random vote, the post telling Marquis she's missed his random vote, the post defending his hard to type name and his post asking to be replaced.

I mean, outside of that two post turnaround there isn't really anything to judge him on. Menmonic was the very definition of a low content, lurker slot, it is easy to lynch those, and I don't think it's a great way to hunt scum, especially in this situation. Now you can like Mafia and Majiffy voting Mnemonic first thing today. That's fine. But there's no way to deny that Mnemonic was a low content, lurker slot.

Thor, on the other hand, has not been. And one of those early morning votes has already crept away. Do you really think it would have been taken off if mnemonic were still here and barely speaking?
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Post Post #609 (ISO) » Tue Jun 03, 2014 6:10 am

Post by Majiffy »

In post 607, Thor665 wrote:
In post 601, Majiffy wrote:
In post 597, Thor665 wrote:How does him making generic comments about not liking a town block that he isn't included in a town tell?
I just don't see jonscum putting himself out like that early-game when he doesn't need to.
By generically opposing a town bloc that he wasn't in you think that made him a...target of the town bloc and thus was a risk a scum wouldn't take?
He excluded any possibilities of being part of future townblocs and therefore a potentially game-losing liability to set up so early.
In post 607, Thor665 wrote: We are in that situation.
No, we're not. We can still hit mafia and win.
In post 607, Thor665 wrote: Confirms a town the day before lylo.
Takes the lynch options for a town player from 3/5 to 3/4.
Increases chance of town win by chaining Wolf to obligatory efforts in case town whiffs lynch today (Wolf would have a 2/3 shot to save the game for town on a mislynch)

The negatives are...possible, but I think minor. What are your issues with the plan?
I don't see any of your positives really helping us. Unless the seer is being lynched, seer claiming doesn't put us in any different scenario; either way,
seer isn't being lynched today.
Unnecessary outting and really minimal positives vs the drawbacks of outting our potentially auto-winning PR.
In post 607, Thor665 wrote:
In post 601, Majiffy wrote:I grok but you're misconstruing my position.
Clarify it?
Mafia and Wolf are both Scum.
You keep defining
my
Scum as
your
Mafia.
In post 607, Thor665 wrote:That means I'm confirmed not Wolf and also confirmed not Mafia *except* with Justin.

The wagon on me can go away now.
Explain your confirmations. Slowly and with extreme prejudice.
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Post Post #610 (ISO) » Tue Jun 03, 2014 6:19 am

Post by Justin Playfair »

In post 607, Thor665 wrote:The best town swing is to lynch the Wolf today.
Seer reveal focuses town to a 1/4 chance to nail Wolf.
Seer reveal focuses Mafia to a 1/3 chance.
Right on both scores. But if we miss the wolf, and if we hit mafia, we almost certainly lose the seer tonight. We lose what the seer might be able to report, in an ever dwindling pool of suspects.

If we hit mafia without outing the seer there is a one in four chance that the wolf will do half of the rest of town's work tonight and we'll wake up tomorrow with three town, one wolf and a functioning and living seer.

Unless town lynches town today you're betting the seer for a 1 in 5 instead of a 1 in 6 chance of hitting the wolf. That's what it really comes down to.

I think that's a bad bet, and one that has more of a chance of benefiting the wolf than it does town. The danger doesn't increase much for the wolf (though theoretically it could increase more if the seer has reads on the still living), and if it gets a mafia lynch today we've served up our seer for a midnight snack.
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Post Post #611 (ISO) » Tue Jun 03, 2014 7:01 am

Post by Thor665 »

In post 609, Majiffy wrote:He excluded any possibilities of being part of future townblocs and therefore a potentially game-losing liability to set up so early.
But for that to matter we'd need to know his honest take on town blocs. Do you? I know I went through a fairly lengthy period where I opposed town blocs as being anti-town. That was my honest belief, and I'd oppose them regardless of alignment. Even at this stage my opinion of town blocs is pretty...'meh'. I just try to think of them as forming a town reads list and treat them that way - because it's all they really are. Do you know that he normally likes/loves/et al town blocs? Because it's not like he went all that far out in opposing it, I read his opposition as reasonable and would call it a mild opinion, rather than a strong one.
In post 609, Majiffy wrote:No, we're not. We can still hit mafia and win.
Only if we hit the wolf tomorrow in lylo. We need to hit the wolf within two lynches to win, otherwise we lose. We can hit mafia via a lynch or a kill, but we can only hit the wolf via a lynch.
In post 609, Majiffy wrote:I don't see any of your positives really helping us. Unless the seer is being lynched, seer claiming doesn't put us in any different scenario; either way,
seer isn't being lynched today.
Unnecessary outting and really minimal positives vs the drawbacks of outting our potentially auto-winning PR.
You don't see a danger of seer cross claiming tomorrow? Because that is optimal wolf strategy at that stage.
In post 609, Majiffy wrote:You keep defining
my
Scum as
your
Mafia.
No, I keep trying to make you define your scum. I point out the danger of you lynching a scum who is mafia as opposed to wolf. That is not a misconception on my part - it is what you're saying, and if it's not you really need to clarify your stance some more.
In post 609, Majiffy wrote:Explain your confirmations. Slowly and with extreme prejudice.
I did in the post you quoted. Which ones do you not understand? If "all of it" what part am I losing you at? If "the beginning" then my question to you would start at "why would wolf Mnemonic back off on forcing a claim and mislynch on a Mafia/Town player?" Answer that and I'll walk you through the rest. Or clarify the point I'm losing you that isn't the begining and I'll start there.
In post 610, Justin Playfair wrote:Right on both scores. But if we miss the wolf, and if we hit mafia, we almost certainly lose the seer tonight. We lose what the seer might be able to report, in an ever dwindling pool of suspects.
Which is only more reason for a claim now, last I checked, if you think the Seer has actual info. Also, if the Seer has no info besides the investigation tonight, then the investigation tonight is relatively 'meh' regardless with a Wolf kill happening, and I don't see the problem in trading Seer for Mafia at this stage, and if Mafia wants to avoid that then they should have one of their members claim first, since that would actually help their wincon at this stage.

Would you like to claim Mafia?
I'll sheep you on your wolf suspect.
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Post Post #612 (ISO) » Tue Jun 03, 2014 7:17 am

Post by Majiffy »

In post 611, Thor665 wrote:But for that to matter we'd need to know his honest take on town blocs. Do you? I know I went through a fairly lengthy period where I opposed town blocs as being anti-town. That was my honest belief, and I'd oppose them regardless of alignment. Even at this stage my opinion of town blocs is pretty...'meh'. I just try to think of them as forming a town reads list and treat them that way - because it's all they really are. Do you know that he normally likes/loves/et al town blocs? Because it's not like he went all that far out in opposing it, I read his opposition as reasonable and would call it a mild opinion, rather than a strong one.
I don't see how that's applicable; even if I had a negative opinion about something, if outting that opinion publicly would be anti-wincon, obviously I wouldn't do it.
In post 611, Thor665 wrote:Only if we hit the wolf tomorrow in lylo. We need to hit the wolf within two lynches to win, otherwise we lose. We can hit mafia via a lynch or a kill, but we can only hit the wolf via a lynch.
"Oh god we have to lynch scum! How
hawwible!
"

Even if we hit wolf today we still have to hit both mafia subsequently properly. So your argument fails.
In post 611, Thor665 wrote: You don't see a danger of seer cross claiming tomorrow? Because that is optimal wolf strategy at that stage.
I see that as a massive benefit. CCs are fucking easy as shit to sort.
In post 611, Thor665 wrote: No, I keep trying to make you define your scum. I point out the danger of you lynching a scum who is mafia as opposed to wolf. That is not a misconception on my part - it is what you're saying, and if it's not you really need to clarify your stance some more.
My scum always has been and always will be any anti-town wincon.

There is no danger hitting mafia today. The danger in hitting BOTH mafia TODAY
AND
TOMORROW.

You're brow-furrowing over absolutely nothing of any importance. And I don't know if it's because you like to furrow your brow, or because this is some distraction from your wagon.
In post 611, Thor665 wrote:I did in the post you quoted. Which ones do you not understand? If "all of it" what part am I losing you at? If "the beginning" then my question to you would start at "why would wolf Mnemonic back off on forcing a claim and mislynch on a Mafia/Town player?" Answer that and I'll walk you through the rest. Or clarify the point I'm losing you that isn't the begining and I'll start there.
I didn't read a big good portion because it wasn't directed at me and tl;dr.

So be a dear and start at the beginning, with nice short concise bullet points that I know you know is pro-town and able for you to do.
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Post Post #613 (ISO) » Tue Jun 03, 2014 7:25 am

Post by Thor665 »

In post 612, Majiffy wrote:I don't see how that's applicable; even if I had a negative opinion about something, if outting that opinion publicly would be anti-wincon, obviously I wouldn't do it.
Yes, but it only matters if he thinks it would be anti-wincon. That's the point.
In post 612, Majiffy wrote:Even if we hit wolf today we still have to hit both mafia subsequently properly. So your argument fails.
Except we're allowed to hit mafia by a wolf kill or as a 3rd lynch. We cannot do either of those with the wolf, which is my argument.
In post 612, Majiffy wrote:I see that as a massive benefit. CCs are fucking easy as Smurf to sort.
Okay then.
In post 612, Majiffy wrote:There is no danger hitting mafia today. The danger in hitting BOTH mafia TODAY
AND
TOMORROW.
Yes. I agree with this. Hence - why we should figure out who the wolf is.
In post 612, Majiffy wrote:this is some distraction from your wagon.
My wagon is already dead, in case you didn't notice. I killed it a few pages back.
In post 611, Thor665 wrote:So be a dear and start at the beginning, with nice short concise bullet points that I know you know is pro-town and able for you to do.
If "the beginning" then my question to you would start at "why would wolf Mnemonic back off on forcing a claim and mislynch on a Mafia/Town player?" Answer that and I'll walk you through the rest.
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Post Post #614 (ISO) » Tue Jun 03, 2014 7:43 am

Post by Majiffy »

In post 613, Thor665 wrote:
In post 612, Majiffy wrote:I don't see how that's applicable; even if I had a negative opinion about something, if outting that opinion publicly would be anti-wincon, obviously I wouldn't do it.
Yes, but it only matters if he thinks it would be anti-wincon. That's the point.
"If I say x I will never be able to be absorbed into any future townblocs. Being accepted into future townblocs would be optimal for my anti-town wincon. I probably shouldn't say x".

:neutral: Doesn't take a genius.
In post 613, Thor665 wrote: Except we're allowed to hit mafia by a wolf kill or as a 3rd lynch. We cannot do either of those with the wolf, which is my argument.
So you want to hit the wolf today instead of mafia, taking away our potential of getting an autowin in favor of having to lynch at 3 proper lylos back to back

Yes, excellent argument Thor!
In post 613, Thor665 wrote: Yes. I agree with this. Hence - why we should figure out who the wolf is.
You're right! Tomorrow. If we don't end up hitting the wolf today.

I figure I have 3 potential scum and 3 scum slots remaining. I don't particularly care if they hit mafia or wolf today, and I think trying to nitpick over what they're going to flip is moot at best and a waste of time and energy at worst.
In post 613, Thor665 wrote: My wagon is already dead, in case you didn't notice. I killed it a few pages back.
And no other alternatives have popped up. Instead, you've successfully bogged the thread down with quote wall wars that no one is going to want to read and feeds town apathy.
In post 613, Thor665 wrote: If "the beginning" then my question to you would start at "why would wolf Mnemonic back off on forcing a claim and mislynch on a Mafia/Town player?" Answer that and I'll walk you through the rest.
How about you give me a logical proof that concludes with "Thor is confirmed town". Because that's what you're positing. Stop beating around the bush and deliver.
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Post Post #615 (ISO) » Tue Jun 03, 2014 8:17 am

Post by reinoe »

Posting from my phone...
@not mafia
Are you hunting scum in general or are you hunting for a specific group? I'm a little confused about your Thor unvoted. Do you think that slot is not scum now?
Scum typically need to fabricate reasons for scumreads...

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Post Post #616 (ISO) » Tue Jun 03, 2014 8:22 am

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I think he is mafia and I want a wolf lynch today to avoid these murky multifaction endgame situations. Still need to do a reread to get a clear wolfspect.
Also, what is NM doing? Worst play I’ve ever seen.
I can't remember the last N_M post that wasn't bland, unimaginative and lame. Some shitposters are at least somewhat funny. You are the epitomy of the type of poster that nobody would miss if you were to suddenly disappear. You never add anything of value.
I'm guessing you haven't read the game and probably never will? Why even sign up to play?
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Post Post #617 (ISO) » Tue Jun 03, 2014 8:31 am

Post by Justin Playfair »

In post 611, Thor665 wrote:I don't see the problem in trading Seer for Mafia at this stage, and if Mafia wants to avoid that then they should have one of their members claim first, since that would actually help their wincon at this stage.

Mafia would probably like it if the seer revealed. It means that the only possible situations for them coming out of tonight would be 2-1-1 or 3-2.
Wolf would probably love it if the seer revealed. For the wolf the best tomorrow gets is 3-1 no matter what, but a revealed seer plus a mafia lynch would equal not having to worry about being outed by the seer.
Town, with the seer unrevealed, has a possibility of a 3-1 edge tomorrow. That possibility doesn't exist for us any other way.
In post 611, Thor665 wrote:No, I keep trying to make you define your scum. I point out the danger of you lynching a scum who is mafia as opposed to wolf. That is not a misconception on my part - it is what you're saying, and if it's not you really need to clarify your stance some more.
In post 611, Thor665 wrote:Only if we hit the wolf tomorrow in lylo. We need to hit the wolf within two lynches to win, otherwise we lose. We can hit mafia via a lynch or a kill, but we can only hit the wolf via a lynch.

Well, no, if we lynch the wolf today we can only kill mafia by lynch, too.

So it's important to lynch the wolf today because we can kill the mafia by lynch or nightkill? By throwing a dead wolf at them?

And since it's so important to get the wolf let's out our seer so that just in case we don't get it today we can lose our best tool with which to find it.

Plus, you're so towny you're making an open offer to mafia to sheep them in their hunt for the werewolf if they just identify themselves to you. But what if mafia sucks at finding scum? What if they pick someone you're sure is town? So you'd be willing to lynch town today, on the say of mafia, just so you could go to night 2-2-1 and maybe go into tomorrow 2-1-1 where a lynch of mafia means a certain wolf win and a lynch of town means a certain mafia win? You'd trade away town's best possible outcome of today, two dead mafia, three live town one of whom is the seer, and one live wolf, just out of hand?

No, Thor, your wagon still has wheels.

Unvote: reinoe


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Post Post #618 (ISO) » Tue Jun 03, 2014 8:37 am

Post by Majiffy »

I think it's actually more likely he's wolf. Note his call for seer to out, asking for Mafia to claim so he can sheep, etc.
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Post Post #619 (ISO) » Tue Jun 03, 2014 8:37 am

Post by Majiffy »

Also his desperate play.
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Post Post #620 (ISO) » Tue Jun 03, 2014 10:12 am

Post by Thor665 »

In post 614, Majiffy wrote:So you want to hit the wolf today instead of mafia, taking away our potential of getting an autowin in favor of having to lynch at 3 proper lylos back to back
Which is somehow vastly inferior to your plan of lylos that also counts on a scum player to solo help town?
In post 614, Majiffy wrote:I think trying to nitpick over what they're going to flip is moot at best and a waste of time and energy at worst.
And I think that just shows how bad your PoE is - if you have PoEd me as scum, but can't say what type of scum I am.
In post 614, Majiffy wrote:And no other alternatives have popped up.
No, actually I could get Reino lynched right now if I was so inclined, but I'm actually not that confident on his wolf status anymore.
In post 614, Majiffy wrote:How about you give me a logical proof that concludes with "Thor is confirmed town". Because that's what you're positing. Stop beating around the bush and deliver.
As I have said - answer my question and I'll do so. If you can't come up with an answer then I think that at least proves I'm not a wolf...do you agree with that? If you don't, why not? What was my other wolfy goal? (hint: showing I had no wolf motivation is part of proving I'm confirmed town...derp)
In post 618, Majiffy wrote:I think it's actually more likely he's wolf. Note his call for seer to out, asking for Mafia to claim so he can sheep, etc.
:lol:
You are so bad at this right now. If you are town you really need to tone down the pride and pay attention to stuff. If you are scum...well, you should probably fake doing so.
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Post Post #621 (ISO) » Tue Jun 03, 2014 10:14 am

Post by Thor665 »

Actually, y'know, i'm honestly sick and tired of dealing with idiot Majiffy already, and I don't much like the rest of you so;

Claim: Seer


Now all of you SHUT UP AND JUST ANSWER MY QUESTIONS.

This means you Majiffy.
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Post Post #622 (ISO) » Tue Jun 03, 2014 10:14 am

Post by Thor665 »

This is sub-optimal play from me.
I don't care anymore.
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Post Post #623 (ISO) » Tue Jun 03, 2014 10:24 am

Post by Majiffy »

In post 620, Thor665 wrote:
In post 614, Majiffy wrote:So you want to hit the wolf today instead of mafia, taking away our potential of getting an autowin in favor of having to lynch at 3 proper lylos back to back
Which is somehow vastly inferior to your plan of lylos that also counts on a scum player to solo help town?
I don't have a "plan of lylos", we are in the situation such that every lynch from here out
IS
lylo.

And I'm not planning on ANY anti-town roles to help town, unlike your shit scenarios.
In post 620, Thor665 wrote:
In post 614, Majiffy wrote:I think trying to nitpick over what they're going to flip is moot at best and a waste of time and energy at worst.
And I think that just shows how bad your PoE is - if you have PoEd me as scum, but can't say what type of scum I am.
Irrelevant. Town, Not Town. POE.

You must be getting rusty.
In post 620, Thor665 wrote:
In post 614, Majiffy wrote:And no other alternatives have popped up.
No, actually I could get Reino lynched right now if I was so inclined, but I'm actually not that confident on his wolf status anymore.
Regardless of what you could or could not do, no alternatives have popped up.
In post 620, Thor665 wrote:
In post 614, Majiffy wrote:How about you give me a logical proof that concludes with "Thor is confirmed town". Because that's what you're positing. Stop beating around the bush and deliver.
As I have said - answer my question and I'll do so. If you can't come up with an answer then I think that at least proves I'm not a wolf...do you agree with that? If you don't, why not? What was my other wolfy goal? (hint: showing I had no wolf motivation is part of proving I'm confirmed town...derp)
I haven't even bothered reading your question because when your conclusion is "I am confirmed town" I expect an independent objective proof to be available.
In post 621, Thor665 wrote:Actually, y'know, i'm honestly sick and tired of dealing with idiot Majiffy already, and I don't much like the rest of you so;

Claim: Seer


Now all of you SHUT UP AND JUST ANSWER MY QUESTIONS.

This means you Majiffy.
Any ccs?

And no, I'm not answering your dumb questions.
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Post Post #624 (ISO) » Tue Jun 03, 2014 10:25 am

Post by Majiffy »

VOTE: Justin Playfair
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