Mini 1556: Greetings Without Spain (GAME OVER FAREWELL)

[Xayzeck]

Hey fitz

[Bicephalous Bob]

N replaces Lucresia.

[N]

I have a scummie. This means I am a good scumhunter and you should all sheep me.

[Rhinox]

So this is starting to look like a real game now. I'll get caught up today.

[Xayzeck]

Cool bro.

[Xayzeck]

I have thoughts to post later.

woo replacements

unvote

while I catch up

So this is starting to look like a real game now. I'll get caught up today.

Just to keep count how many times you've said stuff like this.

[Rhinox]

Your point? I've been busy for a couple days. What's your excuse for the whole fucking game?

[Xayzeck]

Point being just catch up and post, don't keep saying you're going to catch up.

And my excuse for what exactly? My bad play? My scumminess?

[Equinox]

Approach in what sense?

I was a lot more careful in 302 on lynching targets, because I was really worried about lynching chosen, but this is my first closed setup game. Also haven't been paying a super lot of attention to this D1, so I was just sheeping.

Why? I've got scumgames if that's why your curious about

Hmm. How would you say you approach your scum games, then?

[ICEninja]

Kthx, at least you agree with me that "almost" certainly one of [Titus, PK's slot, Xay] is scum, and we know for a fact now that Titus is not.

And I also disagree that RC could pull himself out of a lynch today with yourself, Xay, and myself all pushing that hard for his slot's lynch. I believe it is 5 to lynch, and it seems like there is a decent likelihood at least one of the replacements would come in and agree, then we're at L-1. I feel like if you're scum buddies with RC, then this (with a promise of lynching RC tomorrow) would be the correct play for you.

All that being said, you're right about Xay being a liability to town, and I'm pretty sure I've said at some point that he shouldn't make it to endgame, but I feel like if RC is lynched then Xay actually has a fairly low chance of being scum and despite him being a liability, having probtown that survives for a long time can potentially be helpful.

It can also be a disaster if his scum reads are horrible though, so I could probably be happy with a Xay lynch if an RC lynch isn't happening.

[Xayzeck]

Hmm. How would you say you approach your scum games, then?

Make a firm read on someone being town, and then interact with other people base on how they read that person. I'd push for inactive people, or people who are scum to the majority. Something along those lines.

[RedCoyote]

Okay, everyone. Reading up now.

[N]

Okay, everyone. Reading up now.

I can't be bothered reading; can you point out anything interesting for me please?

[RedCoyote]

Okay, everyone. Reading up now.

I can't be bothered reading; can you point out anything interesting for me please?

Will do. 15 down, but I was goofing off the last hour. I'll finish it up tomorrow.

[Kthxbye]

replacements come in....still takes forever for them to read 25 pages and post content

[Equinox]

Make a firm read on someone being town, and then interact with other people base on how they read that person. I'd push for inactive people, or people who are scum to the majority. Something along those lines.

Huh. Thanks. I'll look into your scum games once I'm all caught up.

Here's the thing: Your play in Micro 302 is different from your play in this game, and your answer to my question about that difference doesn't make sense. You claim to be cautious in that game because you didn't want to lynch chosen townies, but, if anything, you've been

even more

cautious here. It feels like you don't want to step on any toes, and Rhinox had a point when he said that your posts on Day 1 were too self-centered; you weren't this focused on explaining yourself in the other game.

(This isn't necessarily addressed to Xayzeck.) The big problem I'm having at the moment is that my top scum reads are all in the pool of people who aren't active or old farts (i.e., pre-2011): Aisa, pisskop, and Xayzeck. Lucresia is somewhere around there for her Xayzeck vote as that wagon was building, but I'm a little shaky there because she hasn't done anything else that has been weird. While the odds of all of the scum being in that non-active/new-ish group isn't small necessarily, it makes me a little uncomfortable that that's where my reads are. Eh, something might change in the next 12 pages. For what it's worth, Kcdaspot, ICEninja, Kthxbye, and Rhinox are pretty town, probably in descending order.

replacements come in....still takes forever for them to read 25 pages and post content

You guys post too many walls! It's making the game soooo haaaaaaard to read! Couldn't you guys post, like, fewer one-line responses to everything?!

[Xayzeck]

Here's the thing: Your play in Micro 302 is different from your play in this game, and your answer to my question about that difference doesn't make sense. You claim to be cautious in that game because you didn't want to lynch chosen townies, but, if anything, you've been even more cautious here. It feels like you don't want to step on any toes, and Rhinox had a point when he said that your posts on Day 1 were too self-centered; you weren't this focused on explaining yourself in the other game.

Huh, I had no idea. That wasn't a conscious decision. I had a lot of suspicion for my half-assed play D1, so maybe my play has shifted to not push and wrong buttons? Maybe.

The big problem I'm having at the moment is that my top scum reads are all in the pool of people who aren't active or old farts (i.e., pre-2011)

Why is this a problem? Are you scumreading newer players, or do the people you scumread happen to be newer players?

[Xayzeck]

You guys post too many walls! It's making the game soooo haaaaaaard to read! Couldn't you guys post, like, fewer one-line responses to everything?!

I like this a lot lol

[Equinox]

Why is this a problem? Are you scumreading newer players, or do the people you scumread happen to be newer players?

That's the $1 million question!

[ICEninja]

The one dollar million question?

[Equinox]

A million questions, $1 each! If you purchase them all together, you get 20% off! Limited time only!

I swear there was a hyphen there.

[Bicephalous Bob]

RedCoyote (2): ICEninja, Xayzeck
Xay (1): kthxbye
pacman (1): Rubicon

Not voting (5): RedCoyote, Equinox, N, havingfitz, Rhinox

10 alive, 6 to lynch

(expired on 2014-04-08 13:33:59) until deadline.

[Rhinox]

It would be hilarious if all the missing players were scum.

I consider the odds of that to be almost 0% though.

Which means one of you from the last page is probably scum.

When I said I had thoughts to post in 558 I was mostly referring to this. I was thinking about this for a little while prior but not really acting on it because I didn't feel like lynching an active player would be best for the game with so many inactives. Now that we've got replacements, I don't have a problem saying that I was starting to feel like ICE may be scum. I know I said I thought he was town earlier but comments like these made me question it:

This day is starting out slower than I did the morning after St. Patrick's day.

But let's be real I don't really give a shit about this game anymore so...

*Crickets*

SIGH.

If this game just kind of fizzled and died, I honestly wouldn't even mind at this point.

Just saying.

I'll give this game a couple more days before I'm out of here.

But yeah there are, what, 4 slots that are probably going to replace and we've gone half a week without anyone stepping in?

I'm just about done with this game.

Now, yes the game was slow. We were all a little bit annoyed by it. But these posts stuck out to me moreso than comments others were making because... well when a town is apathetic it is is scum's best interest to keep the town apathetic, because apathetic towns are easy to manipulate or at least hide in simply by not being useless. It has been proposed in some of the MD "how to play scum" guides I have seen that encouraging apathy can be a useful (albeit boring) scum strategy. And these posts seem to be encouraging apathy. 501 - I really don't believe ICE didn't care about the game anymore. He was active and generally posting useful content and then this "I don't give a shit anymore..." comment just really came out of no where. Same with 522. If players see other players not giving a shit then they're less likely to give a shit themselves. These kinds of posts just seem to be intended to fuel the apathy, and not combat it, so I am suspicious of ICE for them.

I can't remember if I had other things I wanted to say about Rubi's wall of posts back on page 22 or not at this point. I kinda agree with kthx in 538 that a lot of it seemed fake but I don't have too much of a problem with it because the game was stalled and if you have to force a bit to get something going then of course it is not going to read naturally. I kinda thought maybe Rubi could be scum just trying seem like a dutiful townie trying to spark the game. Yeah yeah I know I just said maybe ICE could be scum for sowing apathy so how can "trying to spark the game" also be scummy? Well neither are definite scum tells, its more in looking at the motivation behind the action. I've felt good about ICE prior and I felt good about KCDA so I don't know if either is scum really or if I was just grasping for something at a time when the game was stalled.

I think Rubi was probably town-motivated trying to spark something because he did get both kthx and Xay to engage him in conversation, and he kept the conversation going, not just post a bunch of stuff and attack attack attack lynch lynch lynch etc.

Unless I'm wrong about BOTH Rhinox and Kthx, I doubt there is any scum skillful enough to be pushing multiple wagons on town like that. And Kthx was pushing on piss. I'm pretty much feeling like scum is just as bad as town this game, and the victory will ultimately come down to which side gets better replacements.

I don't agree with this. What does scum skill have to do with what the wagons were? Town can be pushing wagons on town, its not just scum that lead the mislynches. If you assume 3 scum in the game and everyone in the game is bad at it, then the odds all 3 were town comes down to random chance. When you work the numbers, if you take a random sample of 3 players there is a 62% chance 1 or more is scum and a 38% chance that all 3 are town. And thats just a random sample it would be the same if you selected any other 3 players randomly. Even if scum players are bad, given that these were wagons and scum are an informed minority, it may even be logical to assume that the D1 wagons are less likely to be scum given that even bad scum are probably more likely to support wagons on town than their scum partners. If that is true, it may even be wise to lynch from

outside

the group of D1 wagons today. Anyways, just going back to random numbers, sticking with the same group of 3 wagons from D1, the fact that Titus and d3x flipped town means the odds of at least 1 of the remaining 2 wagons being scum drop to 53%, with a 47% chance they are both town. And if piss or xay is lynched today and flips town (a la your hypothetical scenario in 552) and there is another town nk, then the odds that the remaining day 1 wagon being scum falls to 37% or 3/8 - same odds of anybody being scum if selected randomly. Just because on D1 a group of 3 players has a 62% chance of containing at least 1 scum doesn't mean that the remaining living player from that group has a 62% chance of being scum 2 days later if the other 2 players in that group flipped town. That is the definition of the gambler's fallacy.

I'm not trying to say that you're basing anything on mathematical odds, just that your premise and logic is wrong. Bad players mean choices are no better or worse than random IMO, and the odds of a player in an essentially random group don't increase for the remaining members of the group after 1 or more of them flip town. I don't know if you're just using bad logic incorrectly but from a town motivation, or if you're trying to entice the town to mislynch both Xay and pk over the next 2 days because you "can't imagine all 3 D1 wagons were on town" from a scum motivation. IE:

So Rubicon, if Xay dies and flips town with Titus dead an having flipped town, you'll still

legitimately

believe that piss is town?

Don't get me wrong, I don't have great feelings about Xay and you might be right about him, but if piss flips scum I know who I'm instantly voting.

TLDR: you're either town falling prey to the gambler's fallacy, or using it to set up/justify mislynches as scum.



So yeah I think that gets me up to what I said I wanted to post thoughts on in 558. Now I just need to catch up from there, after the replacements started coming in. Bear with me, I've had a stressful week irl but the stressful part of it is over now.


PS I post walls sometimes deal with it and be glad I'm not as bad as I used to be

[havingfitz]

Apologies for not having chimed in yet today. I'm under the weather and mafia hasn't been high on my list of things to do.  In fact...it's pretty far below doing nothing ATM.  Hopefully I'll be back up to speed tomorrow.

[N]

VOTE: iceninja

sounds good!!