Mini 430: Villagers and Vampires (GAME OVER!)

[aude omnia]

Confirmed. Got my garlic out and ready to go.

[aude omnia]

Just Nai, by my count.

[aude omnia]

Hello, i know that some of the posts were deleted while this place was down but did i miss anything while i was gone? anything important?

I made the poorly-thought-out suggestion that we don't lynch today. Phoebus rebutted it, though the numbers of the game make it still viable. In the end we decided we needed more discussion.

I can't even imagine what kind of outage would delete posts. I know MafiaScum.net grew out of the Labyrinth, but the forums NEED a server that can retain posts. Otherwise, it's not worth playing here at all.

[aude omnia]

I can agree to only one thing, which is that this game will go nowhere, or at least will demand a fairly insane amount of analysis.

As I have said before, there is no informed minority, just one person, and all we can really do is rule people out based on lack of suspicion-- that is, the earnestness with which they've pursued strategy.

Phoebus proceeded logically in pursuing me, although his math was flawed, undermining his argument a bit. And he was a bit of a jerk to me besides. :p Yesterdays' attitude has seemed consistent throughout. Elias_the_thief defended me, or simply wanted to avoid a baseless mislynch, I'm not certain.

dtsuei has not posted anything of content, nor has Scotmany12. Zchinque is the only one who worries me: While he's not voting for Yesterdays [last I checked] he is, as he posted in post 69 "fine with a Yesterdays lynch."

Why do you say that? What is the general opinion on this statement?

[aude omnia]

Why I said that?

As I have said earlier, in a post that may or may not have disappeared in the crash, I think this day will end in a lynch that is largely random, and I don't think there is much, if any, information we can gather until tomorrow, when we can start looking for patterns.
I feel that the events so far on this day has not proved me wrong.

As for why I am not voting Yesterdays, you might have noticed that Snichkin posted, in huge letters I might add, "Do Not Put Yesterdays On L-1!!!", thus I assumed that he is(was) not yet ready to end the day. So instead of voting, which would've gone against his wishes, I said that I would be fine with a Yesterdays lynching, implying that I am okay with the day ending.
You can consider it a vote in spirit, if you wish.

Sorry, the crash has made a bad situation worse. To be honest, with so much content gone, I don't think we can glean much of anything from today.

With that in mind, I still find a no lynch to be the most viable option. The reason mafia works is because an informed minority makes themselves visible. I will ask now:

Do we:
1. Vote randomly
2. Vote not to lynch and look for patterns later
3. Continue indefinitely until we end in a lynch.

1. could win the game for us, but is unlikely to do so. Odds are that we simply give the Vamp the upper hand.
2. creates an informed minority, but ends discussion.
3. is unappealing to me if only because at this moment, the typical scum tells don't apply. It's just wasting time and laying down red herrings that might hurt us later.

[aude omnia]

Shanba, that sounds like getting blood from a stone [if you'll excuse the idiom]. I still want to understand what scum tells there could be without an informed minority.

[aude omnia]

Well, first off, there is an informed minority: it's an informed minority of 1. Second, there are many things that can be lone scum tells. To name a few things I think aer scummy, over-reacting, wishy-washiness, appeals to emotion, defeatist attitudes: in fact, the great majority of scum-tells are not reliant on having more than one scum in a group.

That's interesting. I don't really see how I fit any of these things, though you're voting for me anyway.

In any case, one person is an 'informed minority' in name only. They have no one to protect. I imagine their relationships being mapped in the form of a web. With multiple vampires, they have more to keep connected covertly. With only one vampire, their 'relationship map' is exactly the same as anyone else's.

Also, what you seem to ignoring is that if we don't get enough opinions/reactions from players today, we won't have anything to go on in later days when comparing opinions.

In fact, a long day 1 is crucial to any game (see the road to rome forum for examples), but I think that in this game it's even more important than most others for the reasons I have highlighted above.

Any slight mathematical advantage we get from no-lynching is overwhelmed by the disadvantage of a wasted day 1.

Vote: Aude Omnia

. I want to see where this goes.

I think it's a little too easy to bandwagon against me. I am still looking for a long first day. I play mafia very conservatively, so I think that a "slight mathematical advantage" is well worth it. Mislynch, and we make the game much harder on ourselves, as there is a bandwagon a mile long for the vamp and eventually vamps to hide behind.

Apropos to nothing, but I think it's worth noting that tonight, the vampire has only one option, and that is to recruit another. This game seems quite skewed towards the scum-- the head vamp can recruit just as fast as we can lynch, and alone or not, they DO know who they are.

Is this attitude too defeatist for you, Shanba? :p If so, I'm sorry, just rereading the rules.

[aude omnia]

Kill_schmitty brings up the age-old question: "Bad post, or scum post, or both?"

I think it's the scummiest thing we've seen so far. I don't want to develop a bandwagon so easily, though, especially when it is based on one post that is really indefensible [unless K_s was drunk at the time or something :p).

[aude omnia]

I don't like this discussion. It is leading us nowhere.
I don't want to be hasty, but I think I will return to my previous stance.

Vote: No Lynch.

It's either sitting here making idle banter and voting on stupid posts, not scummy ones, OR creating a viable situation where we could tell the scum from the town.
Forgive me for lapsing out of character, but this game is slow as molasses and I cannot fathom this conversation amounting to anything but a mislynch if we're "lucky" and a deadline time-out if we're not.

[aude omnia]

aude aumnia, you're wrong. If you think that this discussion is leading no where you would be suprized to see the discussion in day 2 when there are 2 vampires trying to distruct us (and they would manage to do this).

Two vampires with a common goal are more easily detected than the vamp is right now, when EVERYONE's goal is simply to stay alive.

I will go so far as to say that more talk today will only lead to confusion later. If we don't lynch the vamp, and they recruit, they will be able to point to a mountain of D1 posts that show their innocence [at the time they made them].

Even if someone could magically prove themselves not to be scum right now, we'd have no reason to believe them tomorrow. Every accusation is more ammunition for the vampire

later on, unless we have a majority of players willing to count on a miracle.

[aude omnia]

By and large I thought that was a very well-made rebuttal, Shanba. I think it would do us all some good to to remember that our own survival is not going to make or break the game. As far as the rules explain there are no cops or other pro-town roles, so we are expendable if it means tracing back connections to the lynch.

As for Zchinque, I would hate to think the vampire would make such an ill-thought out post. Unless that's some sort of weird double-bluff-- "The vampire would NEVER say something THAT obvious!"

This looks to be a very difficult game, and I apologize if I'm muddying the waters further. I see that pressure should be applied all around, I just need quite a lot of evidence before I'm willing to lynch.

[aude omnia]

It'll lead nowhere. I can't say anything but that I have consistently tried to do what I think makes the most sense for the town. While everyone likes the ninth-inning tie-breaking home run, I still wouldn't bet my house on it, just as I would not bet on the possibility of rooting out the vamp today.

I don't think enough people realize that if we mislynch, that's 2 townsfolk lost-- 1 to death and 1 to the vampire. Not a good start. In fact, as bad as I can imagine.

[aude omnia]

for example, from yours and Yesterday's reactions I think Yesterday is more likely to be the vampire. That holds doubly true for Aude.

What exactly holds doubly true for me? I like keeping up with truth, especially in games of uncertainty.

As for the vampire finding it easier to make these cases than the town, well that may be true but you should be able to glean information from the way they make these cases anyway. Any and all information is good for the town, as the scum already knows everything in this game.

Anyway.

unvote Vote: Yesterdays

Okay, you just voted for Yesterdays without any kind of explanation as to why. If this is one of your pressure tests, go right ahead, but don't think this doesn't look silly.

Anyhow, I think Zchinque expressed my sentiment as well. However, I see this day will have to end in a lynch if only because of majority opinion. I do think we need to be wary, though, not just of the cases made but of who adopts them and why.

[aude omnia]

Can anyone explain to me where this day should going? Because right now, it's not going anywhere.