Mini 417: Dueling Gods Mafia Over

[Nyktorion]

Vote: PlaysWithSquirrels

One scum caught, n-1 to go.

[Nyktorion]

finally someone is learning..... =)

ill still get lynched day 1 tho, look at 2 "random" votes already.

all townies - ive now been killed as townie like 5/5 games by absolutely stupid towns.... take this into account when you decide to bandwagon me... i dunno probly around page 3 or 4 is when it usually happens?

I don't really see your point. The fact that you got stupidly lynched in 5 games before does not change the probability that you are scum in

this

game in any way.

Unvote, Vote: omg_im_innocent_wtf

for this logic, plus trying to use Appeal to Emotion. Seems worthy of the game's first bandwagon to me.

[Nyktorion]

unvote, retal vote: nyktorion

for craplogic

So, how exactly was my argument against you craplogic?

[Nyktorion]

omg, I have to say that your behavior is confusing me. As already called out by others, I also think it's already a bit early to start claiming. Also, I am finding it strange that you retract your vote based on your craplogic-accusation as there is some resistance against you - instead of saying how exactly I was using craplogic.

Sage, may I deduce from your comments that this behavior is already known here?

[Nyktorion]

I did not know about Dueling Gods either, and I did not immediately find something about it on this page, so I googled for it. The first result that came up was the following:

Dueling Gods

Therefore, it seems pretty reasonable to assume that we have two mafias in this game, even when not knowing about it from the role PM.

So who can win again?

Unlike regular mafia where there are two groups vying for power (either the citizens or the mafia wins) here there are three groups of people vying for power: Spade Mafia, Club Mafia, Citizens

If we assume 14 people are playing that means we have:

Group #1: Spade Mafia - 3 People
Group #2: Club Mafia - 3 People
Group #3: Citizens - 8 People (made up of 2 doctors, 2 cops, and 4 citizens)

In the end only one group can win. So yes that means that Spades Mafia wants to kill off the Clubs Mafia and vice versa.

Since we are only 12 people, and over 50% of the playerbase made up from mafia seems a bit much, I think that the "basic dueling gods" setup described by CES is very likely to be the setup of this game. Since this setup favors town a little bit more than the setup in my link, I don't think that the town has a lot of extra power beyond the cops and docs.

omg, what I am seeing from you at this moment might be "your playstyle". However, still it hurts the town beyond the fact that you are just acting in a different way than we do. You have repeated your craplogic-accusation against me without giving it any reasoning, and you are being defensive against things that haven't been that serious

yet

, resulting in useful information for the mafia. All of that muddies the waters and makes it harder for town to find scum, therefore I want to ask you seriously to become a little bit less jumpy and more thought out in your attacks and defenses.

Exactly why OMG is off the table for today's lynch, Elias.

One of two things will happen tonight:

(A. He's town (be it power role or vanilla) and one of the mafias will kill him, knowing he's a power role.
(B. He's mafia, but the OTHER mafia kills him, thinking he's a power role.

Either way, lynching him doesn't do us much good, as he's dead anyways.

Does anybody see a situation where OMG survives the night, now?

We have a doctor against each of the two mafias, so I do see situations where omg survives the night. So if omg could convince us that he is town rather than scum, this might get him that protection. Also, I would like to go somewhat deeper into your logic: lynching probable scum would then be bad since the other mafia could take care of that. Lynching town is obviously bad, too. So is a No-Lynch our best strategy by your logic, or have I forgotten a scenario where lynching probable scum is the best thing for town, even when considering this logic?

[Nyktorion]

I see, Sage, so your argument was not really a general one, but rather a specific one about omg. No-Lynching on D1 as the best possible strategy would indeed have been something quite new for me compared to what I have learned about mafia so far, so it's good that we have cleared that pointed up.

I can see your points about the lack of information of a lynch of omgtown. However, there is of course still the possibility that omg is scum hiding behind this playstyle (it's not really sure, but still a good possibility), so we will have to get some more indications about his alignment (the best way of that would be, as already mentioned, active help for the town at scumfinding by omg himself). But, I can't really befriend myself with the omg-ignoring-policy either, for this reason.

[Nyktorion]

so, we're going to ignore OMG til night? and we're assuming that both mafias will try to kill him, so we're going to protect him? i think that's a little too much support for someone who's not even a confirmed protown power role, especially one who employs such anti town tactics. i think maybe it would be a good idea to vote up to four, and get him to claim ( he said he would at either 4 or 5).
I dont see how it could hurt much, and it would give us some more information. thoughts?

I don't think a claim is already in order for omg, I am rather hoping to get some nformation about his alignment from his behavior. And as omg himself hinted with his rolefishing - a claim could very well hurt us, since not only town, but also scum receives the information in the claim.

to all those asking me questions/telling me how to play i really dont care.

I hope this does not mean that the recent talk about you doesn't change anything...

ok now lets concentrate instead on finding scum....

...however, this is already going in the direction I wanted.

For now, I think that I have said the important things about this issue, so I will focus on something else now. That way, I also get the chance to watch you from more angles. So,

unvote

for now, but still

IGMEOY: omg_im_innocent_wtf

.

My next focus would be the ones that have not contributed much yet, since they might be scum just hanging back (aka lurking) while the town destroys itself.

Vote: cokebottle

- all I have seen from you yet was a random vote, and that random vote was the fourth vote on a bandwagon that was not backed up by any logic at all.

Also, I am asking myself where Utnut and Sandy are.

Mod

, did you hear anything from these two yet? And if not, could you please get a prod and/or replacement for them?

[Nyktorion]

Hmm, I don't know if this is a serious claim by cokebottle, but it is for sure not the best way to get my vote off of him. I don not really suspect CES for that - after all, cokebottle might be lying at least in that part. However, this part caught my eye:

cogito ergo sum is one of them.

So you have more than one partner, and the scumgroups contain more than 2 players each? Interesting, tell us more, please...

[Nyktorion]

I agree with ELias here, I do not see how voting cokebottle is opportunistic at this point, considering his play up to now. However,

i dont know. i think it would be best to lynch cokebottle at this point. i'm gonna go ahead and vote: cokebottle seeing as cokebottles self vote doesnt actually count (not in bold) is that 3 votes, or four?

No, your vote against cokebottle was already the fifth. Squirrels, myself, Kison, videoguy, and Elias are voting for cokebottle now.

[Nyktorion]

Quiet some interesting things here in this night and the lynch before. First of all, there is the distribution of power roles. When cokebottle's role was revealed, I was believing that we have the "standard" dueling gods setup outlined by CES, where the docs are replaced by roleblockers. But now it seems that we have docs AND roleblockers. Either we don't have any cops, or the standard "setup" was modified quiet a bit in our favor (which would mean that nothing is lost after the cokebottle coincidence yet ), or there is a special twist about the mafia to counter that modification...

We also see that CES has been

clubbed

to death (by the clubs-mafia? ) - so this would fit nicely together for the scenario where CES has blocked the kill of the spades-mafia. It also fits nicely with this here

Every player in this game is split up into two groups. You should be able to deduce what groups they are. It is even written in your PMs.

which means that we probably have spades-town, spades-mafia, clubs-town, and clubs-mafia. Too bad that CES can't tell us anymore who his target was, since that target is now very unlikely to be a member of the spades-mafia (could still be clubs-mafia, though). From the events of Day 1, the most likely target would be omg, so my conclusion from this night would be that omg is a bit less likely than all others to be spades-scum.

[Nyktorion]

I found omg's plea not to be protected by the doc interesting as well. My personal guess would be that he wanted to make his protection unpredictable for either both mafias, or the other mafia (depending on his alignment). They would not know if the doc follows the plea or not, so basically he forced scum to play WIFOM with the doc.

[Nyktorion]

I did not find the cokewagon really scummy, even the mod put the reasons to lynch him right in frot of us. Sure, if you want to say it was bad play by town, that statement is also right if you consider that cokebottle was actually part of that town. Even though coke was town on paper, his actions still supported scum rather than town.

I do not really agree with the reasoning of Squirrels' vote against Sage, since the "too townie" is just an instance of WIFOM and therefore not a good argument on its own. However, another thing that I do find a little suspicious about him is that he seems to be lurkerish. After your Squirrels' Too-Townie-Quote, he remained silent for the rest of D1, and also only posted in the very beginning of Day 2. This behavior contributed to the lack of discussion we had before this evening's argument, and thus helped scum rather tha town. By similar argument, I'll distribute some

Post-or-Perish-FOSs: Sage, Nocmen, Utnut

Also,

Mod

, I would like to ask for a replacement of Sandy, since she still has not confirmed yet.

[Nyktorion]

Nocmen, just telling us your agreements/disagreements with the statements posted might already help us evautaing your own alignment, and I guess you would be interested in convincing us that your alignment is town. However, even if you agree with everything being said here, I just can't imagine that our arguments are so perfect that they match exactly what you would be reasoning.

I do not understand yet why omg thinks that a roleclaim could be est for his character. Even if the claim would protect him from being lynched, it also makes it much easier for the mafia to choose targets for their nightkills. Considering that, the only scenario I can imagine where claiming would be best for town at this point would be a cop with a guilty result, since that would eliminate one scum. If that is not the case, I would be curious wat another good reason for claiming now could be that outweighs the additional information for the mafias.

[Nyktorion]

omg's claimed? i must have missed it. where did he claim?

Omg claimed non-vanilla in post #32:

also, all - im roleclaiming at 5 votes, maybe even 4 if i feel like it, and im not vanilla.

so dont vote for me.

[Nyktorion]

If I understood it correctly, Sage tried to initiate something similar to the random votes on a day 1. However, I do not really like omg's way of reasoning at all. He bandwagon-voted Squirrels in the first place, and then labelled his vote as not that serious in the last post. However, considering that he claims to have a much clearer picture than Sage about the scumminess/townieness of people ("lol nocmen and sage are both scum.", "unfortunately squirrels is about the most likely townie in the game"), I am smelling that you are trying to confuse town.

Vote: omg_im_innocent_wtf

[Nyktorion]

Omg is not the spades cop, so stop trying to replace him, lynch him instead!

Claim: I am the spades cop.

I had a rather hard time last night choosing my target. I did not investigate omg because of the logic given by Sage in post #49. Even though I think that this logic alone should not have prevented him from being lynched, I did fear that my investigation on him would be wasted. So I tried finding another suitable investigation target for that night from the few Day-1-information we had, and I finally stuck with videoguy for his suggestion in post #87 to ynch CES before coke. It turned out that videoguy is not part of the spades mafia.

I can not believe at al that we would have two spades cops, since that would leave us with 4 power roles at the spades side alone (which would make a totasl of 8 power role), and I doubt that possibility enough to make this counter-claim and

Confirm Vote: omg_im_innocent_wtf