Mini 1505: N is for Normal (game over)

[Elyse]

Meh daytalk does increase that probability. I keep forgetting about that and how it factors into my reads.

[toolenduso]

I disagree. Again, Thor's strategy as scum was to not think like scum. So why would he tell other players how to act? It just doesn't seem consistent with his playstyle.

And you have a good point on Slandaar, Elyse.

Since nobody posted this, I'll go ahead and kill my whole "scumslip" thing now.

What Slandaar actually said was this:

Brilliant Hypothesis?
N1: HAR HAR LETS LYNCH SLAND TOMORROW KILL MAX HE OBVTOWN
D2: OH WELL THOR DIED
N2: Fitz is PR lets kill him.

N2 could be different for example: LET KILL FITZ HE IS OBVTOWN AND GONNA VOTE ICE JUST LIKE SLAND BY FITZ EVEN LESS LIKELY TO BE LYNCHED THAN SLAND.

So he didn't really say that the reason fitz died was because the mafia knew he was a PR. He provided an alternative.

I noticed this hole in my theory pretty soon after posting, but thought I'd keep it up for a bit in case somebody took the bait, but oh well. There seems to be some pretty good evidence of Slandaar being town.

[N]

Vote Count 3.03

ICEninja

(3) Skelda, Slandaar, Garmr

zakk

(0)

Garmr

(0)

toolenduso

(0)

Sir Bastion

(0)

Slandaar

(1) ICEninja

Elyse

(0)

Skelda

(3) Sir Bastion, toolenduso, Elyse

Not Voting:

zakk

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Deadline is in

(expired on 2013-11-10 11:06:27)

[zakk]

There seems to be some pretty good evidence of Slandaar being town.

Yeah, pretty much.

And like I said earlier, if Thor and Slandaar are actually both mafia, then they get a solid thumbs up from me for how well they are playing off each other.

ICEninja, I find your lack of faith disturbing.

[ICEninja]

then they get a solid thumbs up from me for how well they are playing off each other.

And the rest of you get a very solid "FUCKING TOLD YOU SO".

[zakk]

You seem very upset. Why are you so upset?

[Slandaar]

Here is the easy way to prove Ice is scum;
Ice what exactly do you not understand about my case on Thor?

I caught him using meta; that can just happen.
He accused me of misrep
I proved its not
He dodged me for 10 pages
He then changed his argument to cropping which had nothing to do with a misrep.

Which of this are you saying isn't correct? how does this not make Thor scum?

[Slandaar]

In fact someone not voting ICE show me any point I have made which isn't actually just plain good and then show me ONE point ICE has made on me that is even remotely good that doesn't involve he bussed which is just nonsense. Maybe I am just town who caught scum? there goes that argument.

ICE hasn't shown one thing I have done which is scummy. Not One. He is just trying to take advantage of weaker town not understanding how I caught Thor.

[toolenduso]

In fact someone not voting ICE show me any point I have made which isn't actually just plain good

Lol. I don't have that kind of time.

Anyway, is there even somebody left who suspects you right now? Who are you defending yourself against besides ICE?

[Slandaar]

You only have to show one point.

I am doing it to get ICE lynched not prove I am town which should be beyond obvious anyways.

[ICEninja]

You seem very upset. Why are you so upset?

Because I'm right and no one is listening.

Slandaar, everything between you and Thor was "You did this" "nuh uh" "yeah huh" and it was such a beautifully crafted smokescreen that it makes so much sense that clever scum using daytalk did it.

My case on you isn't "Here are a bunch of points that suggest Slandaar is scum", my case on you is "Look how much sense it makes for Slandaar to be scum considering these circumstances/vote counts".

You've said all you can to defend yourself and apparently its worked because I don't see any realistic way of getting you lynched today.

[Slandaar]

Whatever you are scum I can't be bothered with you anymore you are dead today one way or the other.

[ICEninja]

It is indeed entirely possible that I'll be lynched today. I mostly have to hope that people will take my words seriously tomorrow.

[toolenduso]

OK so here's what I'm thinking.

I have townreads on the following people:

-Slandaar
-Sir Bastion
-Elyse

I have null-ish on these:

-Garmr
-zakk
-Skelda

Looking back over day 3, I have a theory on ICE. Let's say he's scum. If he's at L-1, how would you react as his scum partner? If you've already voted for him, you hop off the bandwagon and say we should wait to lynch. If you haven't voted for him, you defend him without aligning yourself with him too much. You certainly can't hop on the bandwagon against him; there's only two of you left and the game is getting close to the end. And you certainly can't come right out and start swinging at the people on the bandwagon; that would make you suspicious in the highly likely event that ICE is lynched and flips scum.

So who were the only people arguing against the ICE wagon? Me and zakk.

If ICE were scum, I would basically expect exactly what happened to happen. There are a few other things other people have brought up against ICE that I think are good, but they've already been said and I'll leave them out of this post.

If we lynch ICE and he flips scum, his partner is me or zakk and makes Skelda look like town stretched across too many games. I will defend myself accordingly if that's the case. If we lynch ICE and he flips town, my finger is pointed at Skelda and Garmr by process of elimination.

And if I die tonight, I think that lends more weight to this theory.

UNVOTE: Skelda
VOTE: ICEninja

[Elyse]

Meh I think having Slandaar and ICE alive going into tomorrow is going to cause more of the he-said-she-said nonsense that has been intoxicating this thread. (No way scum is killing either one at this point, if either is even town)

So once everyone gets their thoughts in and ICE claims, I'll probably hammer.

Intent to hammer.

[N]

Vote Count 3.04

ICEninja

(4) Skelda, Slandaar, Garmr, toolenduso

zakk

(0)

Garmr

(0)

toolenduso

(0)

Sir Bastion

(0)

Slandaar

(1) ICEninja

Elyse

(0)

Skelda

(2) Sir Bastion, Elyse

Not Voting:

zakk

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Deadline is in

(expired on 2013-11-10 11:06:27)

[zakk]

"Someone has to protect this family from the man who protects this family." - Skyler White

Hey, I just watched that episode tonight! I love the show. You?

I still think we should ignore ICEninja today and lynch somebody else, just to spite Slandaar.

[zakk]

Who were the only people arguing against the ICE wagon? Me and zakk.

If ICE were scum, I would basically expect exactly what happened to happen. There are a few other things other people have brought up against ICE that I think are good, but they've already been said and I'll leave them out of this post.

If we lynch ICE and he flips scum, his partner is me or zakk and makes Skelda look like town stretched across too many games. I will defend myself accordingly if that's the case.

And if I die tonight, I think that lends more weight to this theory.

Hey, you. Stop doing this whole pointing the finger at both tool and zakk but actually really only be pointing it at zakk thing. That's dumb. You're not seriously going to simply that you're scum by process of elimination, and then say that you'll defend yourself, are you? I'm town, you're town.

And the whole notion of if you die tonight your theory gains credence, how does it benefit the scum in your hypothesis to kill off the only other suspect according to your case (assuming ICEninja flips scum)?

ICEninja feels possibly town. I still don't want to hammer him yet, though I have had lots of chances to. I think we need to do something else today, which may or may not probably but possibly maybe involve lynching Sir Bastion.

Vote: Sir Bastion

This feels a lot righter to me than anything else. Please just trust me.

[Garmr]

Quick summary on my reads. If you want me to go indepth with anyone of them just ask.

Sir bastion- There really isn't evidence to say his scum. My gut feeling also backs me up on this. So Gut + no real scummy actions + town motives = town read

Slandaar- His town because even with day chat that shit would be stupid and ruin the game if he was scum. I can only see one person in that argument being scum. Also I was actually thinking of subbing out if the thor slandaar thing continued to day 2.

Zakk was my day 1 scum read day two he redeemed himself a little null townish.

Toolsend pretty much a null allot of his cases are wifom but i think he genuinely believes what he is saying and that's why his a null instead of a scum read.

Elyse- I didn't like her changed in attitude in day 2 but she changed it back on day 3. Null to scum

Skelda- Not much seen but I have a null- scum read anyway from gut alone.

Ice- Def scum just so much shit ,wifom, lies and hypocritical opinions my strongest scum read def needs a lynch.

and Garmr man his a awesome guy. Def town I have inside knowledge of that .

[Garmr]

If ICE were scum, I would basically expect exactly what happened to happen. There are a few other things other people have brought up against ICE that I think are good, but they've already been said and I'll leave them out of this post.

If we lynch ICE and he flips scum, his partner is me or zakk and makes Skelda look like town stretched across too many games. I will defend myself accordingly if that's the case. If we lynch ICE and he flips town, my finger is pointed at Skelda and Garmr by process of elimination.

and I call this bad logic. If he flips scum it could be his partner trying to push him for town cred. If he doesn't flip scum someone may be trying to distance themselves away from his lynch. It's best to keep a open mind.

[toolenduso]

and I call this bad logic. If he flips scum it could be his partner trying to push him for town cred. If he doesn't flip scum someone may be trying to distance themselves away from his lynch.

In other circumstances I might agree with you. But scum needs two of the next three lynches to be incorrect and there's only two scum left. Now is the time for them to actually start acting strategically, as long as they can do so with some subtlety.

Hey, you. Stop doing this whole pointing the finger at both tool and zakk but actually really only be pointing it at zakk thing. That's dumb. You're not seriously going to simply that you're scum by process of elimination, and then say that you'll defend yourself, are you? I'm town, you're town.

Well it makes sense. If ICE flips scum both of us look suspicious for defending him and fighting the bandwagon. And if ICE does flip scum, town has one mislynch left, which means that even if I get lynched, you're the lynch the day after that and town wins.

And the whole notion of if you die tonight your theory gains credence, how does it benefit the scum in your hypothesis to kill off the only other suspect according to your case (assuming ICEninja flips scum)?

So that I'm out of the way and the remaining scum can then try and push the town in another direction, as opposed to the town win scenario I just laid out.

ICEninja feels possibly town. I still don't want to hammer him yet, though I have had lots of chances to.

Why would you hammer somebody you think is town? I think that sentence also kind of lends some weight to my case on you and ICE. Feels like a scumbuddy keeping his partner at arm's length.

I think we need to do something else today, which may or may not probably but possibly maybe involve lynching Sir Bastion.

Vote: Sir Bastion

This feels a lot righter to me than anything else. Please just trust me.

I'm not going to just trust you. Looking back over your ISO, you haven't made a case against Sir Bastion since post 778, which was pretty thin. You then said that your opinion of Bastion had changed for the better in 865, then called him the most likely scum again in 872 and 908. In 908 you were agreeing with Bastion while calling him likely scum. I just haven't seen very much from you in the way of building evidence against Bastion. It's pretty much all been "I feel like" and "this is my read."

[ICEninja]

Tool's theory makes absolutely no sense to me. I simply don't follow any of it.

The scum team is Slandaar and Garmr, and they've never let up on me today. Town players are the ones having doubts about me.

I'm a VT

. And I've said pretty much all I can to defend myself. Scum has outplayed me this game, i just pray to God this is true.

[ICEninja]

Tomorrow is mylo, if any PR has anything they want to say to save this game they should do it now.

[ICEninja]

I also want to apologize to town. I'm very rarely in this situation, I must have played poorly this game.

[Sir Bastion]

The scum team is Slandaar and Garmr, and they've never let up on me today. Town players are the ones having doubts about me.

Do you believe that genuinely?

When I am about to be lynched (which I have been many times) I wouldnt assume all the peoplee people pushing me are automatically the scum.

Yes one of the two could be. But both? Thats very risky move for scum cause obviously if you are vt and are about to flip as such, chances are much higher that one of the two will get the follow up lynch.

No it makes much more sense that one is scum and the other is one who is trying to keep as far from things as possible.

by the way...skelda is posting elsewhere, but not here.


Since an intent has been stated, you might as well give us your final reads on

everybody

.


personally between you and slandaar if it has to be one of the two I'd opt for you simply cause if slandaar *is* scum he's pretty much standing to the forefront and asking to be grilled tonight/tomorrow if you flip town. Only way I can see scum doing that is if they are extremely confident that their *possible* third man is so deep in confirmed town territory that we wouldnt work out who before the end. Very few players this game have that benefit (I may even say...only 1 and even thats dubious since the encryptor flip)