NY 164: Maniacal Street Mafia (Anticlimatically finished.)

[mastin2]

One-Hundred-Eighty-Third Votecount

:

(Fourth Votecount of Day Eight,

AKA, the "The game has slowed down, sadface" votecount.

)

penguin_alien - 1 (Nachomamma8)

Not Voting - 3 (PeregrineV, ffullisade, penguin_alien)

With

4

alive, it's

3

to lynch.

Day Eight's deadline is Thursday, October 8th, @ 12:30 PM PST, which is in (expired on 2013-10-24 12:30:00).

If deadline were to hit now,

penguin_alien

would be lynched.

Spoiler: Changes from last votecount

penguin_alien - 1 (Nachomamma8)

Not Voting - 3 (PeregrineV, ffullisade, penguin_alien)

Last votecount was page 257, post 6401.

Spoiler: Player Vote History D8

Nachomamma8: penguin_alien
PeregrineV:
penguin_alien: Nachomamma8->Unvote
ffullisade:

Spoiler: Vote History D8

On Fri, Oct 10/04/13 @ 5:09p,

Nachomamma8

votes

penguin_alien

in post 6343.
On Sun, Oct 10/06/13 @ 12:07p,

penguin_alien

Votes

Nachomamma8

in post 6368.
On Mon, Oct 10/07/13 @ 03:44p,

penguin_alien

Unvotes

Nachomamma8

in post 6383.

[penguin_alien]

So what's the disadvantage of no-lynching?

[PeregrineV]

PV, I'm in the 1 blue scum left camp, not the 2:1:1, for balance reasons and if there was a red scum left it would have been in his best interest to make an NK, and the odds of him picking the same NK are about 3/16, not factoring in that I'd expect such scum to overlap on you or ffullisade before overlapping on MM. Where are you currently on that? Who do you think is scum?

Call me old school, but 4-4 symmetry is more elegant that 4-3 but we'l make one with 3 PR and the other with 2 PRs and 2 goons.

But, if you can point to other Mastin modded games where his setup was similar, I'll listen more.

Still liking Nacho for red scum. Not sure on the blue because what I really need is just pure hours to dig through vote counts and posts, but that's time I don't have a ton of right now. Not thinking Nacho is blue, but not putting a hard bus past him, but then I have to start looking all over for red.

As for last night, it could have been a no-kill (easier to make us thing red is gone) or double kill (maybe red and blue DON'T know who the other is), or red hit BP on the blue (as in Cold War Mafia where Fonz lived and won for exactly that reason (and maybe Jal too in Street Racers).

If you are correct, what is town's best course of action today?

With 2 town and 2 scum? We come back to the same issue as before, except that lynching one color wins it for the other color. No lynch may be the only way town wins, but it annoys the crap out of me to count on scum to win it for town.

If one shoots town and the other shoots scum, then one wins.
If both shoot town, then they are 1:1 and I don't know if they both win, they both lose, or they tie. We lose if we are all dead.

Have we already lost?

If you are right, then the game's outcome is out of town's hands and almost certainly won't be a town win.

I don't want to think about the game from that perspective, even if it's the correct perspective, because there's no point in putting effort into today. Just vote nolynch and let the scum factions make their kill choices.

But, my belief that the scum factions are 3-4 isn't really based on head-in-sand. It's based on my reads. If we nolynch then either you or I are dead tonight, depending on which of us is perceived as 1) the most confirmed town and 2) the most likely to vote town tomorrow. Unless you're scum, in which case gg and my miscalculation about neighborhood parity will have been my worst mistake of the game.

If 3:1 then no lynch is best.
If 2:1:1 then lynching scum loses the game for us. That makes no lynch the best.

Vote: No Lynch

[PeregrineV]

So what's the disadvantage of no-lynching?

Don't see one at this point. If one scum wants to come out and complain about the other being BP, they can. Otherwise, let them shoot it out.

[penguin_alien]

Works for me.

VOTE: No Lynch

[Nachomamma8]

peregrine why are you being so unbelievably stubborn
you see that you are very strongly against me
and ffullisade is very strongly against penguin

so if there is only one scum left (literally everyone except for you is saying this)
then the final scum is going to kill off the person who suspects them for a win in 3p

[ffullisade]

I don't take "if it's MYLO, PUNT" as written on stone tablets. A lot of factors come into play. In cases where there is one or more confirmed town or near-universal town reads, the final kill is going to remove that near-certainty, and the people left will be optimized for mislynch.

The (imo remote) possibility that this is XYLO does inject some what-if, though.

If the clock runs down and we reach no lynch that way, so be it. I'm not going to put the day to an end.

But, I am going to put my vote to use.

VOTE: penguin_alien

[PeregrineV]

peregrine why are you being so unbelievably stubborn
you see that you are very strongly against me
and ffullisade is very strongly against penguin

so if there is only one scum left (literally everyone except for you is saying this)
then the final scum is going to kill off the person who suspects them for a win in 3p

If there is one scum, then it's 3:1, correct?

If we no lynch, we are at 2:1, correct?

If we mislynch, town loses, correct (2:1 going into night, 1:1 for loss tomorrow)

Town-Nacho knows this.

So why is town Nacho not voting No-Lynch?

[PeregrineV]

I don't take "if it's MYLO, PUNT" as written on stone tablets. A lot of factors come into play. In cases where there is one or more confirmed town or near-universal town reads, the final kill is going to remove that near-certainty, and the people left will be optimized for mislynch.

The (imo remote) possibility that this is XYLO does inject some what-if, though.

If the clock runs down and we reach no lynch that way, so be it. I'm not going to put the day to an end.

But, I am going to put my vote to use.

VOTE: penguin_alien

See the math I presented to Nacho above. Agree/disagree?

[ffullisade]

I don't take "if it's MYLO, PUNT" as written on stone tablets. A lot of factors come into play. In cases where there is one or more confirmed town or near-universal town reads, the final kill is going to remove that near-certainty, and the people left will be optimized for mislynch.

The (imo remote) possibility that this is XYLO does inject some what-if, though.

If the clock runs down and we reach no lynch that way, so be it. I'm not going to put the day to an end.

But, I am going to put my vote to use.

VOTE: penguin_alien

See the math I presented to Nacho above. Agree/disagree?

There is more to mafia than math.

I've seen games that were potentially winnable by town at mylo become pretty much certain losses at lylo.

And I feel like this is such a game. Do you know why?

[mastin2]

No official votecount, but just letting you know that No Lynch would happen at deadline, but is not happening now.

[Nachomamma8]

peregrine why are you being so unbelievably stubborn
you see that you are very strongly against me
and ffullisade is very strongly against penguin

so if there is only one scum left (literally everyone except for you is saying this)
then the final scum is going to kill off the person who suspects them for a win in 3p

If there is one scum, then it's 3:1, correct?

If we no lynch, we are at 2:1, correct?

If we mislynch, town loses, correct (2:1 going into night, 1:1 for loss tomorrow)

Town-Nacho knows this.

So why is town Nacho not voting No-Lynch?

The answer is in the post I quoted, but you somehow managed to completely miss that.

[PeregrineV]

I don't take "if it's MYLO, PUNT" as written on stone tablets. A lot of factors come into play. In cases where there is one or more confirmed town or near-universal town reads, the final kill is going to remove that near-certainty, and the people left will be optimized for mislynch.

The (imo remote) possibility that this is XYLO does inject some what-if, though.

If the clock runs down and we reach no lynch that way, so be it. I'm not going to put the day to an end.

But, I am going to put my vote to use.

VOTE: penguin_alien

See the math I presented to Nacho above. Agree/disagree?

No.
Why?

There is more to mafia than math.

I've seen games that were potentially winnable by town at mylo become pretty much certain losses at lylo.

And I feel like this is such a game. Do you know why?

[PeregrineV]

EBWOP:

I don't take "if it's MYLO, PUNT" as written on stone tablets. A lot of factors come into play. In cases where there is one or more confirmed town or near-universal town reads, the final kill is going to remove that near-certainty, and the people left will be optimized for mislynch.

The (imo remote) possibility that this is XYLO does inject some what-if, though.

If the clock runs down and we reach no lynch that way, so be it. I'm not going to put the day to an end.

But, I am going to put my vote to use.

VOTE: penguin_alien

See the math I presented to Nacho above. Agree/disagree?

There is more to mafia than math.

I've seen games that were potentially winnable by town at mylo become pretty much certain losses at lylo.

And I feel like this is such a game. Do you know why?

No.
Why?

[PeregrineV]

peregrine why are you being so unbelievably stubborn
you see that you are very strongly against me
and ffullisade is very strongly against penguin

so if there is only one scum left (literally everyone except for you is saying this)
then the final scum is going to kill off the person who suspects them for a win in 3p

If there is one scum, then it's 3:1, correct?

If we no lynch, we are at 2:1, correct?

If we mislynch, town loses, correct (2:1 going into night, 1:1 for loss tomorrow)

Town-Nacho knows this.

So why is town Nacho not voting No-Lynch?

The answer is in the post I quoted, but you somehow managed to completely miss that.

Well, according to you, Penguin (the last scum) is going to kill off both you and Ffullisade (because you both suspect him).

But maybe you don't mean this.

Who will the last scum kill?

[ffullisade]

Because I think you'll be alive tomorrow and I think you'll vote for town.

And that of course comes down to thinking that I am right about Nacho being town and that you are wrong about him being red scum.

[Nachomamma8]

Well, according to you, Penguin (the last scum) is going to kill off both you and Ffullisade (because you both suspect him).

penguin is going to kill ffullisade.

[penguin_alien]

Well, according to you, Penguin (the last scum) is going to kill off both you and Ffullisade (because you both suspect him).

penguin is going to kill ffullisade.

...way to set it up for you to NK ffullisade and turn it into proof that I must be scum. I'm pretty sure this is classic WIFOM fodder.

[ffullisade]

Well, according to you, Penguin (the last scum) is going to kill off both you and Ffullisade (because you both suspect him).

penguin is going to kill ffullisade.

...way to set it up for you to NK ffullisade and turn it into proof that I must be scum. I'm pretty sure this is classic WIFOM fodder.

yeah that makes so much more sense than leaving one very convinced vote-for-not-nacho in the game, doesn't it?

[ffullisade]

That logic is so fucking pathetically scummy wifom I can't quite believe I read it.

Scum Nacho leaving alive two players who will almost certainly vote him tomorrow, and kill the one player who is least likely to vote him. That's surely a winning scum strategy.

[penguin_alien]

Confirmation bias FTW!

[ffullisade]

Confirmation bias FTW!

lol.

Nah.

[PeregrineV]

Well, according to you, Penguin (the last scum) is going to kill off both you and Ffullisade (because you both suspect him).

penguin is going to kill ffullisade.

Then maybe I'll start tomorrow voting penguin.

It's a crazy, mixed up world, and there is no telling what could happen.

[PeregrineV]

That logic is so fucking pathetically scummy wifom I can't quite believe I read it.

Scum Nacho leaving alive two players who will almost certainly vote him tomorrow, and kill the one player who is least likely to vote him. That's surely a winning scum strategy.

So who does scum-Nacho kill tonight?

[ffullisade]

Is there some reason why you're asking about the blindingly obvious?