NY 164: Maniacal Street Mafia (Anticlimatically finished.)

[Nachomamma8]

Peregrine, why do you think there are two scum left?

[mastin2]

One-Hundred-Eighty-Second Votecount

:

(Third Votecount of Day Eight,

AKA, the "The mod's actually making a votecount!" votecount.

)

penguin_alien - 1 (Nachomamma8)

Not Voting - 3 (PeregrineV, ffullisade, penguin_alien)

With

4

alive, it's

3

to lynch.

Day Eight's deadline is Thursday, October 8th, @ 12:30 PM PST, which is in (expired on 2013-10-24 12:30:00).

If deadline were to hit now,

penguin_alien

would be lynched.

Spoiler: Changes from last votecount

penguin_alien - 1 (Nachomamma8)
Nachomamma8 - 0 (

penguin_alien

)

Not Voting - 3 (PeregrineV, ffullisade,

penguin_alien

)

Last votecount was page 256, post 6376.

Spoiler: Player Vote History D8

Nachomamma8: penguin_alien
PeregrineV:
penguin_alien: Nachomamma8->Unvote
ffullisade:

Spoiler: Vote History D8

On Fri, Oct 10/04/13 @ 5:09p,

Nachomamma8

votes

penguin_alien

in post 6343.
On Sun, Oct 10/06/13 @ 12:07p,

penguin_alien

Votes

Nachomamma8

in post 6368.
On Mon, Oct 10/07/13 @ 03:44p,

penguin_alien

Unvotes

Nachomamma8

in post 6383.

[Nachomamma8]

Does it count towards my activity if I'm prodding everyone else?

[Nachomamma8]

i feel alone

[ffullisade]

I'm here. Awaiting Peregrine's answer to your 6400.

[penguin_alien]

Ditto.

[mastin2]

<<< Speaking of PeregrineV, he's not yet in prod range, but he's close, so a reminder has been sent to him. >>>

[PeregrineV]

PV, I'm in the 1 blue scum left camp, not the 2:1:1, for balance reasons and if there was a red scum left it would have been in his best interest to make an NK, and the odds of him picking the same NK are about 3/16, not factoring in that I'd expect such scum to overlap on you or ffullisade before overlapping on MM. Where are you currently on that? Who do you think is scum?

Call me old school, but 4-4 symmetry is more elegant that 4-3 but we'l make one with 3 PR and the other with 2 PRs and 2 goons.

But, if you can point to other Mastin modded games where his setup was similar, I'll listen more.

Still liking Nacho for red scum. Not sure on the blue because what I really need is just pure hours to dig through vote counts and posts, but that's time I don't have a ton of right now. Not thinking Nacho is blue, but not putting a hard bus past him, but then I have to start looking all over for red.

As for last night, it could have been a no-kill (easier to make us thing red is gone) or double kill (maybe red and blue DON'T know who the other is), or red hit BP on the blue (as in Cold War Mafia where Fonz lived and won for exactly that reason (and maybe Jal too in Street Racers).

[PeregrineV]

Peregrine, why do you think there are two scum left?

See response above.

[PeregrineV]

@Mastin- Limited Access until Tuesday Oct 15.

[ffullisade]

PV, I'm in the 1 blue scum left camp, not the 2:1:1, for balance reasons and if there was a red scum left it would have been in his best interest to make an NK, and the odds of him picking the same NK are about 3/16, not factoring in that I'd expect such scum to overlap on you or ffullisade before overlapping on MM. Where are you currently on that? Who do you think is scum?

Call me old school, but 4-4 symmetry is more elegant that 4-3 but we'l make one with 3 PR and the other with 2 PRs and 2 goons.

But, if you can point to other Mastin modded games where his setup was similar, I'll listen more.

Still liking Nacho for red scum. Not sure on the blue because what I really need is just pure hours to dig through vote counts and posts, but that's time I don't have a ton of right now. Not thinking Nacho is blue, but not putting a hard bus past him, but then I have to start looking all over for red.

As for last night, it could have been a no-kill (easier to make us thing red is gone) or double kill (maybe red and blue DON'T know who the other is), or red hit BP on the blue (as in Cold War Mafia where Fonz lived and won for exactly that reason (and maybe Jal too in Street Racers).

If you are correct, what is town's best course of action today?

[penguin_alien]

This is my first mastin2-modded game, so I can't comment on the likelihood he'd go for asymmetry based on past experience.

The only mastin2-modded game I can find in his topics is Mini 1304 with the following set-up:

Mafia Cop
Mafia Goon x 2

Doctor
Roleblocker
Miller
VT x 7

the hook there being that scum had the info roles, useless though they were, and town had the night power. His notes indicate he was going to have a vig to look like an SK at work, but he jettisoned that.

The idea of red no-killing to play into the prevailing theory that we were at 4:3 blue:red to start does make sense from a certain point of view.

If PV's right then no-lynching is our best move. If he's wrong, it doesn't really hurt anything to make it MyLo vs. LyLo.

[mastin2]

@Mastin- Limited Access until Tuesday Oct 15.

Got it.

[Nachomamma8]

Call me old school, but 4-4 symmetry is more elegant that 4-3 but we'l make one with 3 PR and the other with 2 PRs and 2 goons.

4-3 is more elegant than "stacked scumteam versus scumteam with two goons, one weak PR and a SUPER DUPER SCUM JOAT".

[Nachomamma8]

I can find you games where there were uneven scumteams.
You find me a game where the teams are: 3 good PRs + 1 goon versus Super Scum JOAT + weak PR + 2 goons.

[Nachomamma8]

If there's one red and one blue versus two townies and we no lynch, then our best chance of winning is by lynching a townie.
If there's one blue left, we win by lynching the blue.

[ffullisade]

I really want to see some thoughts Peregrine about town strategy in 2v1v1 and 3v1 sbecause he's the only one who is convinced we're 2v1v1.

So, this is a poke response, but not a lot of content.

PA is making a huge deal out of the unlikelihood of her being blue scum given her stances earlier in the game but those same arguments apply to Nacho, and probably more so in his case.

Peregrine apparently still thinks his red-scum-Nacho case has legs.

I feel a serious case of the stubborns coming on. This game is probably going to come down to whether Peregrine and I can see eye to eye. And if the neighborhood symmetry argument is invalid, then town is p much fucked because the one player who has unassailable towncred IMO right now is him and it's mostly based on neighborhood symmetry.

[penguin_alien]

...I also think Nacho is blue scum for reasons detailed earlier rather than pure PoE. But since actively lynching wrong in either of the above cases guarantees a town loss at 3:1 and increases the odds of a town loss at 2:1:1, I don't see any reason not to hear PV out after the game has already gone on for months.

/poke response

[Nachomamma8]

Penguin, why is no lynching the best move if there's one red scum and one blue scum left?

[penguin_alien]

Because if two of the three of you are scum, lynching has a 2/3s chance of hitting scum and handing the game to the other scum faction. At least no-lynching gives us some chance that scum will cross-shoot. And trying to lynch town doesn't help us, as presumably we'd be stringing up someone who neither scum would shoot anyways.

YMMV. Personally I don't think we have two scum left, rendering the discussion academic.

[PeregrineV]

OK, back, and just finished my large. This is the week.

[Nachomamma8]

OK, back, and just finished my large. This is the week.

The week? Please tell me it's going to be more like two days :/

[PeregrineV]

PV, I'm in the 1 blue scum left camp, not the 2:1:1, for balance reasons and if there was a red scum left it would have been in his best interest to make an NK, and the odds of him picking the same NK are about 3/16, not factoring in that I'd expect such scum to overlap on you or ffullisade before overlapping on MM. Where are you currently on that? Who do you think is scum?

Call me old school, but 4-4 symmetry is more elegant that 4-3 but we'l make one with 3 PR and the other with 2 PRs and 2 goons.

But, if you can point to other Mastin modded games where his setup was similar, I'll listen more.

Still liking Nacho for red scum. Not sure on the blue because what I really need is just pure hours to dig through vote counts and posts, but that's time I don't have a ton of right now. Not thinking Nacho is blue, but not putting a hard bus past him, but then I have to start looking all over for red.

As for last night, it could have been a no-kill (easier to make us thing red is gone) or double kill (maybe red and blue DON'T know who the other is), or red hit BP on the blue (as in Cold War Mafia where Fonz lived and won for exactly that reason (and maybe Jal too in Street Racers).

If you are correct, what is town's best course of action today?

With 2 town and 2 scum? We come back to the same issue as before, except that lynching one color wins it for the other color. No lynch may be the only way town wins, but it annoys the crap out of me to count on scum to win it for town.

If one shoots town and the other shoots scum, then one wins.
If both shoot town, then they are 1:1 and I don't know if they both win, they both lose, or they tie. We lose if we are all dead.

Have we already lost?

[ffullisade]

PV, I'm in the 1 blue scum left camp, not the 2:1:1, for balance reasons and if there was a red scum left it would have been in his best interest to make an NK, and the odds of him picking the same NK are about 3/16, not factoring in that I'd expect such scum to overlap on you or ffullisade before overlapping on MM. Where are you currently on that? Who do you think is scum?

Call me old school, but 4-4 symmetry is more elegant that 4-3 but we'l make one with 3 PR and the other with 2 PRs and 2 goons.

But, if you can point to other Mastin modded games where his setup was similar, I'll listen more.

Still liking Nacho for red scum. Not sure on the blue because what I really need is just pure hours to dig through vote counts and posts, but that's time I don't have a ton of right now. Not thinking Nacho is blue, but not putting a hard bus past him, but then I have to start looking all over for red.

As for last night, it could have been a no-kill (easier to make us thing red is gone) or double kill (maybe red and blue DON'T know who the other is), or red hit BP on the blue (as in Cold War Mafia where Fonz lived and won for exactly that reason (and maybe Jal too in Street Racers).

If you are correct, what is town's best course of action today?

With 2 town and 2 scum? We come back to the same issue as before, except that lynching one color wins it for the other color. No lynch may be the only way town wins, but it annoys the crap out of me to count on scum to win it for town.

If one shoots town and the other shoots scum, then one wins.
If both shoot town, then they are 1:1 and I don't know if they both win, they both lose, or they tie. We lose if we are all dead.

Have we already lost?

If you are right, then the game's outcome is out of town's hands and almost certainly won't be a town win.

I don't want to think about the game from that perspective, even if it's the correct perspective, because there's no point in putting effort into today. Just vote nolynch and let the scum factions make their kill choices.

But, my belief that the scum factions are 3-4 isn't really based on head-in-sand. It's based on my reads. If we nolynch then either you or I are dead tonight, depending on which of us is perceived as 1) the most confirmed town and 2) the most likely to vote town tomorrow. Unless you're scum, in which case gg and my miscalculation about neighborhood parity will have been my worst mistake of the game.

[mastin2]

Yo, one week until deadline, guys. Heads up.