Mafia v. Wolves Redux: Finally Over!

[Raffles]

Vote: XReyoX.

I know him and knowing his luck, he would be a wolf.

[Raffles]

Hey hey hey, I wasn't the one who had the ultimate sneak attack that can kill deity in one hit...

they can sitting behind the screen and laugh at me and other townies fighting against ourselves trying to lynch each other?

Precisely. Exactly the sort of thing you would do. For all I can speculate you've hacked yourself into the mod's computer and sent out all the PMs for your advantage. And on top of that, you've somehow hacked into the Mod's brains and given yourself lynch -99999 so you can't lose. After having done all that, you've laughed manically at your computer screen like I've known you to do.

I'll give you some help then.

He is willing to finish me off already! A

blatant

scum-tell.

[Raffles]

Hang on, when have I laughed maniacly at my screen !?

Oh I have seen you manically laugh in front of the computer... it's scary.

[Raffles]

I'll seek vengeance

Does this mean you admit to being a scum?

[Raffles]

Spot on! I'll come down and Kill you physically tonight.

There it is ladies and gents! We have a confession!

Leo, seriously, don't get killed today. I brought you here because I wanted to play with you. I don't want you dead on first day.

Just in case there's a mass wagon while I'm asleep...

Unvote

[Raffles]

If you claim, chances are no one is going to believe you.

[Raffles]

Well that's the whole point of this game.

[Raffles]

OMGUS vote: Wizardcat

Dog pwns cats... anyday.

[Raffles]

[quote="PBuG"]Reyo, I just gave you my reasoning. Learn to read plzkthx.[/quote]

No you haven't, you're just avoiding the question.

[b]Vote: PBuG[/b]

[Raffles]

EBWOP

Reyo, I just gave you my reasoning. Learn to read plzkthx.

No you haven't, you're just avoiding the question.

Vote: PBuG

[Raffles]

Unvote, Vote: XReyoX

Refer to post 86

[Raffles]

Dammit IH, couldn't you wait until we fished a lot more scum?

Unvote, Vote: OverTheUnder

[Raffles]

I am not buying a

word

.

That was such an opportunistic vote, and you know it.

I noticed Reyo was the leading bandwagon. I estimated there are 6 or 4 scums in this game, more likely 6. Reyo has not presented himself with much of a scummy act so far, just what an everyday noob would do. So I put Reyo on lynch -6 with semi-rubbish reason, to see which fish would crawl out of their hole and take the bait. A noob scum would go with the flow, try to appear inconspicuous and push him up on the bandwagon. Probably using Reyo's noobish-ness as an excuse. You fit this perfectly.

[Raffles]

(That was addressed at OTU)

[Raffles]

On the one hand, the assessment of OTU's vote is a perfectly reasonable one. But the trap's he's describing having set is a bizarre justification of an equally bad vote. "I figured there were 6 scum in the game, so I placed a vote I didn't actually believe in to see who else would jump on the bandwagon at lynch -6."

First of all, traps like that don't work at lynch -6, even if you know for certain that there are exactly 6 scum in the game. If scum are going to jump on a bandwagon, they're more likely to do it closer to lynch than -6; maybe at lynch -2 or -3, but not at -6. If it looks like scum are pushing toward a fast lynch, they have to all vote in relatively quick time or someone will get wise and remove their vote. It's hard enough to do that with two scum, doing it with six is downright laughable.

And that assumes that there weren't already any scum on the bandwagon. If one of the six scum was already voting XReyoX, then the remaining five know they can't get to lynch and so they just have to wait.

To me this looks like and ad hoc, and frankly ridiculous, explanation for a vote in an attempt to make sure that the bandwagon that follows XReyoX's is on OverTheUnder and not on Raffles.

I take your point, but there are few things you haven't considered.

Probably the most crucial. 6 (or 4) scums

do not know who each other are

. They know their scum buddies, but they have no knowleddge of the other group. This makes it far more likely that a scum is going to turn up and push the wagon, especially if it is half way through (i.e. false sense of security that it would be okay to vote since it is not putting Reyo on lynch -1 or 2 or whatever).

I had to put a vote I didn't believe in to push the wagon up to half way line. Otherwise wagon might have fizzled out. I thought it would be the best timing too as no one has done anything overly stupid yet to dismantle this wagon. Please consider it again.

[Raffles]

*mutters to self*

Last time I lay a bloody trap then... nobody would take me seriously.

I've given up of any hope of convincing you two, but honestly, what is there to gain from jumping in to take credit? Not only I despise such dishonest acts, it would gain me nothing other than cheap street cred that wouldn't prove anything. Whereas I would get some skill if I actually thought about what I'm doing. Whether you believe it or not, I did it with full intention of catching a scum. End of story.

[Raffles]

Whether you believe it or not, I did it with full intention of catching a scum.

End of story

.

[Raffles]

What do I need to drive a point home? A sledgehammer?

Whether you believe it or not, I did it with full intention of catching a scum.

End of story.

[Raffles]

in my experience, the only people who repeatedly use the same argument are scum.

HEAVY FOS: Raffles.

This is getting way unneccesary and ridiculous. Alright, I'll play along.

First, I have not used any argument, let alone a same one. I just said, you can think what you want, but this is what I did, end of story.

Second, and more amusingly, what are these things called scum tells, then?

[Raffles]

Ok, so you can just say "end of story" and expect that everyone takes your word for it and moves on?

Horrible rebuttal.

Nope, this is because you have not read things properly. Tsk.

I just said, you can think what you want, but this is what I did, end of story.

Your claiming that does not change the fact that there was indeed a possible gain for "taking credit".

Now if you wanted any serious response on this (I apologize, but you didn't ask for any, I thought you were just trying to rub it in and piss me off), then all I can say is it is a natural human nature to assume a worst case scenario, when the welfare of themselves or the ones the subject cares for is not concerned. Just look at how media reports politics. I am not going to fight against something so inherently embedded, it is futile.

Your quote within this quote is a statement that is being used to

sway people to your point of view

. This is called an argument. You've used it 3, fours times now, I'm not sure how many. That's a scumtell, in my experience.

I think I give up with sledgehammer. I'm gonna move onto wrecking ball.

I just said,

you can think what you want

, but this is what I did, end of story.

[Raffles]

The numbers of scum? Simple.

There are two teams.
It is unlikely that there are diffrent numbers in each scum team.
Therefore the total number of scums are even.
There are 21 in the game.
There must be multiple numbers in a scum team.
Then we have 6/21 or 4/21. It is unlikely 8/21, that's way too many.

Then I have to think about which one is more likely. My gut told me it is more likely to be 6/21. 2 people in scum team just sounds too little, considering the amount of variable roles that can be gained from putting two different mafia games together. So I went with 3 per team.

[Raffles]

Shit, you asked about lynch -6 too? I missed that.

But I thought we ended our ways with both Kison and I being a stubborn arse because we are both too immature to stop making snide comments? What is anything I'm about to say going to convince otherwise? :S

Aaaaanyhow, if you want me to explain it, I think I shall...
It's simple, it's a halfway house. In a big game like this, if someone has got half the vote required then the person's orbiting on event horizon. Not many would question a possibility of lynch of someone who has built that many votes. This creates an ideal situation for scum who hasn't voted on that person yet. The lynchee has clearly done something questionable so placing a vote wouldn't look suspicious, but it's not placing the person on lynch -1 or 2. A safe vote.

Anyway you can count on me not to scheme something like that again, I've been backfired with an ugly side of human nature...

And Kison

Raffles is a better candidate simply because he's more experienced and therefore would act more like scum in a traditional sense, wheras in your case, I have to factor in the fact that you're a new player and probably don't know how to act in whatever role you may be placed in.

That's a most

ridiculous

assumption. Sure, I was/am in 5 games, but my cumulutive day count amounts to the grand total of

2days

. How the heck would I know how to act a scum "traditionally", assuming there is such a thing.

[Raffles]

I also find it amusing, that an obnoxious town play gets more votes than an outright blatant scummy play. I'll make a mental note of this.

[Raffles]

therefore would act more like scum in a traditional sense,

I would call this an assumption. Even if I was a scum, I could act radically. I have no idea what you are on about by "tradional scum".

And no, I have not have had much of a chance to interact with someone who I know is a scum. Yes there had been one, but she's been largely lynched on the basis of being lurkish and non-commital.

PBuG, if you are going to attack my lack of logic then use one yourself and tear me apart please. Stating that on it's own will give me no chance to defend myself.

[Raffles]

I'm sure Kison would jump in on this by saying

"OMG he's shifting attention! DIE SCUM!" (hahar, beaten you to it)

but I have to say, it's been awfully quiet. I think I provided a lot of controversial material for people to join in, yet it's just Reyo, Kison and I. I smell "let's just sit back, relax, and let Raffs get lynched" from the scums.

[Raffles]

Okay, I guess I could have just said WIFOM to Kison's post, but I found that way much more satisfying for me as I thought Kison knew this and was just trying to harrass me.

[Raffles]

Happy?

[Raffles]

I want to keep that to myself for the moment, if you don't mind. There has been far too little posts from everyone else, and I want to have more firm evidence rather than putting scums on early alert.

My vote is on OverTheUnder at the moment. He is very likely a scum, but that's all I'm saying.

[Raffles]

Mr. Flay, I've answered both of your questions. I'm not trying to avoid anything. :/

I take it you acknowledged the answer to question 1

Answer to question 2:

Probably the most crucial. 6 (or 4) scums do not know who each other are. They know their scum buddies, but they have no knowleddge of the other group. This makes it far more likely that a scum is going to turn up and push the wagon, especially if it is half way through (i.e. false sense of security that it would be okay to vote since it is not putting Reyo on lynch -1 or 2 or whatever).

It's simple, it's a halfway house. In a big game like this, if someone has got half the vote required then the person's orbiting on event horizon. Not many would question a possibility of lynch of someone who has built that many votes. This creates an ideal situation for scum who hasn't voted on that person yet. The lynchee has clearly done something questionable so placing a vote wouldn't look suspicious, but it's not placing the person on lynch -1 or 2. A safe vote.

Looking back, I concede that these takes a fair amount of assumption. But I do honestly believe that a scum would prefer this timing rather than beginning or the end. For that reason.

[Raffles]

tried to deflect attention, and then withheld information on who he thought was scummy.

And just may I ask, why are these scummy? It might look scummy if I did it with no reason, but I gave an explanation for each one.

For the first, I've said it myself that this might look scummy, but I needed to mention what I observed. Having assumed that people are more or less finished with interrogating me, I didn't think it would be a problem to speak my observation.

I also think I gave a valid reason for witholding my scum list. I don't see why you would have a problem with it.

[Raffles]

No that's not it, my feeling is that anyone can put the vote at the beginning or the end. It's just that if I were a scum, I would feel safer by doing what I said. Also, the reason the guy gives gotta be rubbish. That's where OTU fitted in.

[Raffles]

WIFOM where? Explain.

[Raffles]

Kison, I agree, but I always say in other games that everything on first day is a WIFOM. If we accuse everyone's accusation of being one, we wouldn't get anywhere.

To Mr. Flay
I still don't understand what I did so wrong that I have my ass tailed with at least three homing missiles. All I did was experiment with a few somethings new, which I admit it had just blown back into my face. If in "scum-hunting" rules that kind of thing requires a death warrant then go ahead, lynch me. But I personally think it's against the spirit of mafia. (This is posted in the game you are modding)

[Raffles]

We have discussed various mafia theories, but we had no discussion of this game. We may have come very close to the line at times, but I always stopped it before it got too far.

[Raffles]

I'M sorry everyone, I'll be away on a camp until 22nd. I'll be back to post then, or find out if I've been replaced...

[Raffles]

FOS: al4xz

, but not for the same reason as everyone else. (Yes, I have finally returned...)

When everyone started voting for al4xz because of his style, I didn't agree with it because he always plays like that - Uncaring. It's the sudden change of his attitude that he cares is what worries me. And this is the second player who is just too plain opportunistic.

[Raffles]

Reyo: Always think the aim of the game. People who shouldn't play until the end is SCUM. You should always make priority to make scums preferential voting candidate over a someone with bad play style.

[Raffles]

Chill, there is no deadline (yet). Focus on finding a scum rather than penalizing playstyle.

[Raffles]

Nice of you to show up after hefty amount of lurking.

[Raffles]

Does that mean you are going to place one soon, or the deadline is set already and I'm oblivious about it?

[Raffles]

That could still be taken the either way, but I take it it's the first.

[Raffles]

Usually no lynch, but I just discovered some mods do things differently, so we shall wait and see.

[Raffles]

I think a macine gun prodding is in order.

[Raffles]

I went back 4 pages. I think these people needs one.

~N9V~
bird1111
IH
Mastermind of Sin
spectrumvoid
theopor_COD

[Raffles]

I think you should hold it until people have responded to the prod.

[Raffles]

or once you are put on -1

[Raffles]

Argh I'm getting really annoyed with this... for all the people that's been prodded and said "they'll do their big re-read", I'll be willing to vote anyone tommorrow who doesn't do a decent analysis. That to me is a hardcore lurking that needs to be dealt with.

[Raffles]

tommorrow in the sense that day 2.

[Raffles]

Well he's threatening us with it and I'd rather it not set.

[Raffles]

^That's something rather important to note for later on...

[Raffles]

1. I've re-read his posts, but I can't really extract any useful contribution to the town from him, despite the number of posts he may have made more than most. (Other than that each player analysis) Maybe he is lazy, maybe he is a scum. I do believe it was an opportunistic vote though.

2. That point to me is sort of null. The way I see it, the best way to play a scum is to forget that you are one completely during the day, and go on scum-hunting as you would in any other day. This is a good play because
a) Towns can't analize your interaction with your scum buddies.
b) You'd appear as how you would in any other game, which is like a townie if you are good.

So if I'm a scum and see my scum buddy putting up a scummy play then I would quite happily lynch him. But I guess this may differ from scum to scum.

3. I would say much more likely than others, maybe a nudge below 70.

[Raffles]

You are throwing a WIFOM/too townie argument there mate.

"He is playing too scummy, scum would know better than to do that. He must be a townie"

It just doesn't make sense.

As for your second point, note that wagon for OTU didn't appear until after your wagon. And you did have over 1/2 of the votes needed for lynch...

[Raffles]

But OTU is not

you

. Maybe he didn't spot that it might look scummy. I personally thought someone scummy might start crawling out at that point, where I thought to lay a trap. If I thought it was blatantly obvious and scum would never approach it that way, I wouldn't have done it in the first place.

Why wouldn't he place a vote on your wagon just because his scum mates placed a vote on yours? I admit, any scum would be a bit hesitant, if all his scum buddies placed a vote on you, but I can't see any problem being a second one.

[Raffles]

Or the scum could pick someone completely at random, to prevent from having their kills analyzed? They could try and kill someone who they suspect might be a cop? Scum don't generally tend to kill a big townie, because they have a good chance of getting doc protection (esp. if the town just lynched a scum). There are whole variety of reasons why scum would kill someone. Not just because they are experienced.

[Raffles]

^You should really try holding onto these things until we get further evidence.

[Raffles]

Fair enough. It's just that I was slightly ticked because I noted it but was planning on to see how PBuG behaves a bit more.

[Raffles]

I'm lazy, I want to catch scum as easily as I can. I keep notes of scummy characters/actvities, wait for a bit to see if it repeats, or person shows further scummy activities. It doesn't help me if the people I got marked is alerted to their mistakes too early.

[Raffles]

as i have said, it is certainly not impossible. Just difficult, and certainly not something you can be certain of. Noobs who are about to die, will occassionally pass on info to their buddies before they go. Similarly, experienced players may be forced to issue instructions to a noob buddy who isnt doing as they should.

And again, this is where your theory fails. Assuming your theories are true, and I am a scum, I am under no pressure for the time being and therefore have no need to pass on any information. Regarding of which, I am curious to know what you thought was the information I was trying to pass on, and who I was passing it onto.

[Raffles]

What, I only left a couple of days!

I think people are just scared of putting OTU too close on lynch -1 and the subsequent hammer. It's simply that everyone knows he's scummy, but he hasn't acted scummy enough to deserve a lynch. But nobody has the balls to say it. What the hell, I'll wait until something more interesting appears. Certainly Pbug - Kison theory is interesting, and I'll look over that in my next long free time. It's also interesting that OTU kinda seem to have given up on the game. Meanwhile, I'll

unvote

[Raffles]

Mod: I've unvoted too

[Raffles]

Wait, Raffles, why the hell are you unvoting OTU???

Well that kind of depends on whether you agree with what I said or not. Do you really think he's commited enough crimes to be worthy of a lynch? And if so, why isn't he lynched until now?

And if not, what's the point in keeping a vote on him?

[Raffles]

That's all good and fair that

you

think he's worthy of lynch today Mr. Flay, along with 7 other people. But you didn't answer the second part of my question. Why isn't he lynched until now? He was tee-towing lynch for a very long time.

I did suggest an alternative, I said I would look into Kison-Pbug? combo (I think), but predictably I haven't started yet. Besides, I see what you are implying that even if I did investigate this alternative, I would have to be a Yuri to meet the deadline to convince everyone and to cause a lynch.

Your hypothesis is also interesting. This would mean suppose OTU did turn out to be a scum, I would become your prime suspect tommorrow, and I would have one hell of a time trying to talk myself out of an hypothesis that is untested. As much as I do find OTU scummier than some of the others, I'm almost hoping OTU doesn't turn out to be a scum for lunacy that I would have to endure on D2.

What sort of thing would we learn if OTU was a town?

[Raffles]

well, if you and OTU are scumbuddies, then you two have pretty bad co-ordination. You made the trap, he fall for it and you get revealed to be his scummate? Anyway, at that time, if I were a scum, hopping onto remu, PBuG or kison will be a much safer choice. So even if OTU is a scum, I wouldn't hold it against you, at least not more then people who have unvoted at around the same time. To be honest, if I turn out to be a scum, you would probably be suspected for the numerous posts that i've made that seems to be defending you.

That would just be utterly retarded on my part, even I could see that in the situation, I should just ignore OTU.

[Raffles]

It's interesting how most of non-OTU voters have all suddenly gone quiet. I'm not quite sure what this means, I'll think over it carefully.

[Raffles]

This is really bad, I have a feeling that a large portion of the people in this game are scums. Maybe there are super power-role townies or maybe some of the scums are in both the mafia AND the wolves groups, therefore allowing more than 2 scum groups in the game.

Do you remember that persian game on marathon day? It would suck if it were like that.

[Raffles]

OTU has disappeared at most crucial of times...

I'm not there to place the hammer when the deadline comes I'm afraid, someone else needs to do that.

[Raffles]

Okay I'm going to have a restricted access starting immediate until 16th. I may or may not be able to post once a day. I hope you don't find a need to replace me.

[Raffles]

Two scum groups, one night kill. Thoughts, anyone?

[Raffles]

To reiterate my lost post: I believe ESE is a cult of sadomasochists, and that is all that al4zx's "Uncle", "he could help himself", and the like is about. I don't believe they are the Werewolves or the Mafia, and I believe this is also responsible for the "delay between deadline and dawn".

I'm more curious about why any scum group would target him though; is it possible al4zx targeted scum and that's why he died? If so, that would mean probably two other roleblockers/doctors, which would be a good setup with so many anti-town groups IMO.

I thought only cult leaders could recruit? That would eliminate that al4xz was trying to recruit someone.

Also, cults in a game where there is already two scum groups? That would tip the scale even further from townie then it already is.

I would say ESE is our lovely mafia group we have to hunt out. I'm guessing the word "mafia" just didn't quite fit the flavour, what with werewolves roaming in the game.

[Raffles]

I have no idea why Al4xz was the decision for the kill... he voted Reyo first then was wavering over whether to kill OTU or not... and he only made 7 posts, suggesting a plain lurker in sight. I think it was a random kill to throw us off. Or the wolf scum group was hunting for mafias and they hit a lurker.

[Raffles]

I'm not particularly reading that deep into the night scene. I've been told it's dangerous to do so. Strangle? Uncle? Naaah.

As far as I see, there's a group called ESE. One of it's members had been NKed. There was only one nightkill. I'm using these three solid facts as a basis of my investigation.

I don't know what colour cults turn up in. Does anyone actually know? I've been looking around and there's not a single game where it's colour coded and there is a cult. This is probably the last piece of information I could get to determine if ESE is a scum or (still) could be a scum.

If he's a scum, he was very likely killed by canine group. And role block/doc prevented the mafia kill. If he's a cult, then he could have been killed by either canine or mafioso, and the other group has been blocked of NK by some way. That's how I see it.

[Raffles]

Reyo, those are interesting set of reasons. Baring in mind that Al4xz's reason is also in there, who do you think are some of the most scummiest from that list?

[Raffles]

Well given either no lynch or OTU, which one would you want? I know which one I would go for.

[Raffles]

thats a strong case from Flay.

Vote: Raffles

also note that im a bit wary of xreyox. he seems a little TOO protown for my liking. seems a bit false...
BM

*coughtootowniecough*

[Raffles]

But Raffles' unvote as the deadline loomed is scummy to me in the "oh crap I'm gonna lynch a townie" sense, his reasoning for hopping off is confused

That makes no sense. If I was a scum, why would it matter to me if I lynch a scum or a townie? Sure, it might be a better idea to lynch the opponent scum, but I wouldn't be a one to bitch so long as I don't lynch my scummate.

[Raffles]

No Reyo, I would have chosen to lynch OTU rather than have no lynch. I understand that much.

[Raffles]

But aren't mislynches a normal occurence? Then why would scum care if they are on the mislynch wagon?

[Raffles]

In a normal game, some scums would stay off the mislynch i think because the ones who was on the wagon would either be a) a scum, b) a townie mislead by the scums, c) a townie with not very good judgement or d) The person being lynch is an idiot who was causing more harm to the town while being a town himself.

By this logic, it would mean that if a mislynch occurs, then we should target the most experienced players on the mislynch wagon, because they are least likely to be b) or c).

[Raffles]

I unvoted because of the following:

He was teeteering on lynch -2/1 for a very long time.
----> A sign that he was not worth the lynch?
----------> If he is not worth the lynch, why do I still have my vote on him?

He was disinterested in the game even near the lynch.
----> Cannot be bothered to stay in game? A boring role maybe?

All these gives me a bad gut feeling that OTU is a townie about to be lynched.


So I investigate further...

True there wasn't much to suggest he was a town in his post. But then there wasn't much to suggest he is a scum from his post, apart from his opportunistic vote.
----> Not particularly a strong reason as I first thought it might be.
--------> Then I shouldn't have my vote on him.

Unvote

[Raffles]

I protest too too much? I'm not sure I understand. Does that mean I should ignore and lurk? Or I should put aside what I think and just go with the flow? I don't like either of the option.

[Raffles]

So MoS, if you think I am so wrong that it warrants a vote, what do you propose?

[Raffles]

Retired cop is a cop who comes back to duty when a normal cop dies, nothing to do with the post restriction.

[Raffles]

Yes but we are actually given a generic role name for retired cop. (e.g. Insane cop, vig, is a generic name. ESE on the other hand, isn't). And the role for retired cop is made clear on the wiki.

[Raffles]

Well given either no lynch or OTU, which one would you want? I know which one I would go for.

I've seen a lot of scum use the either no lynch or lynch anyone argument much more than town. I also don't like the way Raffles is using this as an excuse to defend himself. And the unvote thing is also messing with my head.

That makes no sense. If I was a scum, why would it matter to me if I lynch a scum or a townie? Sure, it might be a better idea to lynch the opponent scum, but I wouldn't be a one to bitch so long as I don't lynch my scummate.

Deciding whether to lynch scum or townie is a very important decision if you're scum. It has to do with game balance. For example, if scum manages to lynch the other scum group, it increases their chances of staying alive, as opposed to lynching a townie.

The only scum-tell I'm getting from BM now is he's too townie thing, and I don't have much else on him.

I've explained the unvote, if there is any specifics that weren't clear, tell me. The post about lynching OTU was made after I unvoted. I bet I'd have done your head in even more if I revoted again. I thought I'd save you and others from that confusion. But I decided OTU had to be lynched, with my vote or not.

2nd point. Isn't it a bit of a luxury for a scum to manipulate

the whole town

into lynching the person scum would like to? I would say that's a one awesome scum if s/he could do that. What I wrote there is at my level, I wouldn't be too bothered so long as it's not me or my scummate lynched.

[Raffles]

OTU didn't have any effect on me whatsoever. It was how he was standing close to lynch for a prolonged period of time that gave me few thoughts that I described above.

[Raffles]

I still think people are thinking into this too much. An antagonist has been killed, could be on either side. There was only one nightkill. Does analysis need to go any further than this? In fact, why does it matter if al4xz was wolf or scum? They are just names. You don't need to do this if there is just two mafia groups, namely because well... it's not possible. Why does this need to be done here?

[Raffles]

All these gives me a bad gut feeling that OTU is a townie about to be lynched.

If you so think he is a town, why didn't you said so. Why didn't you try to convince people that he is a town? Why is he setting so close to the town means that he doesn't worth to be lynched?

Deadlines. OTU lynch is better than no lynch, as many people so far have said.

Well given either no lynch or OTU, which one would you want? I know which one I would go for.

You unvoted. That means you went for the no lynch.

Wrong. I unvoted because I wasn't convinced OTU was a scum anymore.

No Reyo, I would have chosen to lynch OTU rather than have no lynch. I understand that much.

Then you said lynching OTU is better than no lynch. and you would have chosen to do so.

So what did you want? Lynch? No lynch? OTU was town? OTU was scum? It doesn't make sense to me.

I unvoted, but realizing the deadline, I preferred OTU lynch over no lynch. Look, you are struggling enough with two voting actions. Your head will explode with various theories and WIFOMs if I voted again. Also OTU hadn't claimed. If I put him on lynch -1 I'd run the risk of preventing OTU from claiming. If I hammered him, OTU won't be able to claim. Realizing all this, I didn't revote.

If I was there to place the hammer on the deadline, obviously I would have done.

[Raffles]

Everyone needs to remember that just because this is Mafia VS Wolves doesn't mean that we are limited to two scum groups...

Three or more scum groups IMO is insane and improbable set up if you ask me. Unless scums are 2:2:2 and they had some awesome powers then it might be balanced.

[Raffles]

Tis my second. Other one is Consulmaker, in which we are also happily arguing away. =]

[Raffles]

I don't know what WoT stand for, but I'll take your word for it. I can imagine how analyzing night actions for that one would be a right mess though.

[Raffles]

I continue to maintain that Raffles is either a terrible player or ESE. I will stake my game-life on it being the latter.

Oh dear... I hope you are joking Mr. Flay. I don't want your blood on my hands by making you reitre from MS...

Tomorrow I believe it will be time to look at some other other 'confused' souls with respect to the al4zx's death. Today, though, Raffles.

Okay. So, go ahead. Hit me.

[Raffles]

He was teeteering on lynch -2/1 for a very long time.
----> A sign that he was not worth the lynch?
----------> If he is not worth the lynch, why do I still have my vote on him?

You said he isn't worth the lynch there. But now you say he is worth to be lynch.

Okay, so to re-explain. In less confusing chronogical order, of what went through my head.



OTU on verge of lynch for very long time.

Maybe he is not worth the lynch?

Unvote
Realize the deadline

Given no lynch or OTU lynch, OTU lynch is better than nothing
Should I revote? No I shouldn't (for reasons above)

[/i]

[Raffles]

Well wouldn't you think that if there really was a convincing case against him, he would have been lynched already, no? I looked back and whilst there was no convincing case that he is a town, there was not very much for scum either. I decided at the time that he didn't warrant a lynch. Hence I unvoted. We lynched more because of the deadline rather than a case against him. Don't kid yourself of that.

[Raffles]

Ya thnx. I found it.

[Raffles]

Actually, a stalling wagon is usually the sign of a scumbuddy that their partners don't want to throw under the bus, so assuming that lack of lynch = town was either bad reasoning on your part, or a bad attempt to deceive us by making shit up to cover your tracks.

Well that quite clearly wasn't it in this case, was it?

[Raffles]

Fine. It might have been a bad decision. But what you said proves nothing in terms of my alignment. I can't be seen as scummy through what you said, since OTU didn't turn out to be a scum.

And MoS, you seem to be unable to point out the obvious for a last couple of pages. Shall I tell you why ESE is unlikely to be the 3rd scum group? Same reason al4xz is unlikely to be a cult. Two failed mafia kills in a night.

[Raffles]

Actually, a stalling wagon is usually the sign of a scumbuddy that their partners don't want to throw under the bus, so assuming that lack of lynch = town was either bad reasoning on your part, or a bad attempt to deceive us by making shit up to cover your tracks.

QFT

@Raffles-2 failed mafia kills is hardly surprising. in fact, i recently modded a game where exactly that happened (well there were 2 scum groups and an SK) and with 3 killing groups, no NK was made.

.....

Actually, a stalling wagon is usually the sign of a scumbuddy that their partners don't want to throw under the bus, so assuming that lack of lynch = town was either bad reasoning on your part, or a bad attempt to deceive us by making shit up to cover your tracks.

Well that quite clearly wasn't it in this case, was it?

[Raffles]

No. There is another way I could have known, and that is because surprise surprise, our rather hated retired cop is

dead

! Deader than a dodo. MoS's theory suggests that I'm a scumbuddy. But the lynch result proves

there is no scum to be buddied with!

Besides, even if it looks bad, my assumption was right. Another point for gut, nothing for logic.

[Raffles]

No. There is another way I could have known, and that is because surprise surprise, our rather hated retired cop is

dead

! Deader than a dodo. MoS's theory suggests that I'm a scumbuddy. But the lynch result proves

there is no scum to be buddied with!

Besides, even if it looks bad, my assumption was right. Another point for gut, nothing for logic.

My theory suggests that you are an ESE member, not a scumbuddy. You're making shit up in a bad attempt to discredit the points against you. GG, yo.

Say what?

Actually, a stalling wagon is usually the sign of a scumbuddy that their partners don't want to throw under the bus, so assuming that lack of lynch = town was either bad reasoning on your part, or a bad attempt to deceive us by making shit up to cover your tracks.

Wrong. See Mafia vs. Wolves Redux. N1. You lose.

It was not a bad reasoning, it was a good gut. And what's all this about making shit up to cover my tracks? You are leaving me confused in wake here.

I'm thinking this is where the jumped conclusion (or so it appears to me) that I'm an ESE member. But I'm not getting how it works. Shed any light please?

In addition, I don't think there were two failed kills. I think al4xz was killed by the mafia, as I've previously said, and the wolves missed their kill for some reason or another.

Any theories on this "some reason ot other"? If ESE was 3rd scum group (I'm still utterly unconvinced by the idea) who did they intend to kill? There's that failed kill to explain as well.

[Raffles]

ESE = cult. Jeez, didn't we already cover this? Please work on your reading retention.

No, I'm not going to speculate on

why

there was a missed kill. That would be stupid, because there are far too many factors that we don't know about, including roleblockers, doctors, redirectors, kill overlaps, and other mechanics that we may not have seen before or considered.

There is absolutely no definitive proof that ESE is a cult. It is in your little closed world that you got it in yourself that it is definitely a cult pulverizing alternatives in your wake.

You still have to explain to me your warped theory.

Has anyone played in a game where there is a cult and the alignments colour coded?

[Raffles]

Wrong. See Mafia vs. Wolves Redux. N1. You lose.

It was not a bad reasoning, it was a good gut. And what's all this about making shit up to cover my tracks? You are leaving me confused in wake here.

Once again you are trying to use results to justify a previous action. Logic doesn't work that way. The only way you could've known that he wasn't scum

before

he was lynched was to be scum yourself, as BM pointed out. He gave off every indication of a scum who felt pressured and gave up, disappearing from the thread. There was no indication that he could be town, certainly not enough to justify this "gut" of yours.

That's rubbish. A pressured scum gives up? I can understand a pressured townie giving up. How could you know that he was

scum

that gave up? There is certainly no "overwhelming" evidence to justify that he was a scum. A scum giving up makes much less sense. Given a townie or scum, townie is much more likely to give up in face of death due to their lack of powers.

The only way I could've known - yea right. Did I ever say this? "I definitely knew for sure that OTU wasn't a scum. Try this.

I didn't know

. But I had a bad feeling about it. Okay?

[Raffles]

red = antitown. cult = antitown. 'nuff said.

There isn't difinitive proof that there is a cult, but there also is no reason to assume that there isn't. The fact that you are so hellbent on dismissing the possibility altogether only

reinforces

this, further supporting the theory that there is a cult.

Okay fine. There

could be

a cult (It would be better if we could get definite answer on the colour code to confirm it). But looking at this game in isolation (i.e. no reference to any other games), it is just as likely that ESE is the name of mafia group, looking at the probability of the previous night action. Happy?

[Raffles]

What I find more interesting than the target of the kill is the target's role and the amount of kills we've seen. ESE Member can really be anything. The fact that he came up red implicates scum. I'd say that Cult would be purple...that's the Cult's colour (or, well, it's what I think the Cult's colour is...). He can't be SK, because a Member implies that there are other people in this ESE-crap. So my guess would be that he's Mafia, because Werewolves aren't, well, human, and al4xz was. So he'd be the Werewolves' kill, and the Mafia's probably failed.

MoS, who says cult can't be different colour?

[Raffles]

Raffles, it's not so much that you weren't sure OTU wasn't scum as that you

still wanted him lynched by somebody

(but not you) despite that doubt. I think you're panicking today, which makes me think we're right. This is orthagonal to the ESE/Mafia/Cult discussion, which is highly speculative, except for the part where you've opposed vehemently the possibility until now.

No, I'm getting irate because everyone is getting me wrong. Including you. I would have hammered him. But due to my schedule (believe it or not, MS is not the first priority in my life) I could not place hammer on OTU, so told someone else to do it to ensure that D1 didn't end in no lynch.

I've opposed the idea because for now until someone tells me the colour of the cult, it is more plausible to think that ESE is a mafia. I've repeatedly asked someone to give me the colour. If the colour of cult is red, only then the theory of cult is just as likely as theory of mafia. This is why I stuck with mafia theory.

[Raffles]

Has anyone played in a game where there is a cult and the alignments colour coded?

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=3189
scum = red. cult=green

THANK YOU! Cult theory suck my credentials.

[Raffles]

... and MoS

Replacements:
3. MoS (days 1 and 2 only)

Is it possible that you could have known about this game?

[Raffles]

armlx != this game's mod. All you've done is shown that a mod once gave the cult a different color. That doesn't mean anything, especially since we don't know what color the mod is giving "regular" scum, or if he's even using different colors. For example, when I mod a game, blue usually means protown, red means antitown, and green means neutral. Cults are not neutral, so dead cults would be red in any game I modded.

If they don't mean anything then why were you quoting me all those games before whenever I say "_____ is unlikely"? It only means something when it suits your agenda?

[Raffles]

Newbie players are quite likely to give up as scum and stop posting under pressure. Happens all the time.

But you see - I'm not even going to pretend I knew this. I didn't. So this factor was not in my calculation. And even then, why? If someone gave me this as a reason for lynching a newb scum, I would never go with it.

And why didn't you mention it on D1, if this was a tell?

His actions before he disappeared are what made him seem more like newbie scum than newbie town. Everything pointed

in favor

of him being scum, with what little evidence there was.

So why did such a little evidence gather so many votes? Make up your mind, was he very scummy? Or not very? And if the latter, why did you not try to dissuade others from the deadline before it was in place?

We could not be

sure

that he was scum, but there was no reason to suddenly get a "feeling" that he was protown.

There was for me and that was stalling votes. We must have completed this cycle a few times now.

[Raffles]

@Kison- I was going to London on monday morning to see my mates, being away for a week. I'm on BST.

As for second point, I think I had that confused with Mr. Flay's sytem.

I'm thinking I'm drawing most of the fire from MoS. Which is disconcerting. MoS compared to rest is like standing in Sommes with a party hat to walking the Oxford St. Not too sure what to make of this just yet.

[Raffles]

Newbie players are quite likely to give up as scum and stop posting under pressure. Happens all the time.

But you see - I'm not even going to pretend I knew this. I didn't. So this factor was not in my calculation.

And even then, why?

If someone gave me this as a reason for lynching a newb scum, I would never go with it.*snip*

*snip*

Unanswered question bolded.

By "little evidence", I was referring to the fact that it was Day 1, and there is rarely much evidence to lynch someone. However, the evidence against him was better than anything else I had seen presented, and I didn't see anyone else scummier at the time.

Actually there were few other very decent alternatives, including me. Except you've seem to have lost steam in pursuing me for reasons unfounded. And I think Akbar mentioned something about kison + remus. So I call bullshit on that. This put together with your policy of lynching rather than replace those who lost interest in the game, I find inconsistency.

stalling votes != protown player. What could possibly convince you that stalling votes means he's protown? The uninformed majority suddenly gets told that he's not scum? Or did the informed minority (scum) suddenly decide that they didn't want to lynch a protown player?

In reverse chronogical order:

Well wouldn't you think that if there really was a convincing case against him, he would have been lynched already, no? I looked back and

whilst there was no convincing case that he is a town, there was not very much for scum either.

I decided at the time that he didn't warrant a lynch. Hence I unvoted. We lynched more because of the deadline rather than a case against him. Don't kid yourself of that.

OTU on verge of lynch for very long time.
Maybe he is not worth the lynch?

I unvoted because of the following:

He was teeteering on lynch -2/1 for a very long time.
----> A sign that he was not worth the lynch?
----------> If he is not worth the lynch, why do I still have my vote on him?

He was disinterested in the game even near the lynch.
----> Cannot be bothered to stay in game? A boring role maybe?

All these gives me a bad gut feeling that OTU is a townie about to be lynched.


So I investigate further...

True there wasn't much to suggest he was a town in his post. But then there wasn't much to suggest he is a scum from his post

, apart from his opportunistic vote.
----> Not particularly a strong reason as I first thought it might be.
--------> Then I shouldn't have my vote on him. Unvote

When did I

ever

say "I am convinced that OTU is town"? Look at the first quote. You aren't even bothering to twist my words anymore, you are stating the opposite to suit your argument.

Vote: MoS

. Either that or someone is having a reading retention problems. Ironic.

what is with you and your obssession of colors? Color coding rarely has any significance to the game, other than a convenient distinction between protown and antitown. Without further evidence, the color coding means nothing to us, except that we know he was scum.

Because if there is some consistency for colour coding, then it would shed us light on what ESE could be. There’s consistent colour coding for scum, for townie, why shouldn’t there be one for the cult?

Actually, a stalling wagon is usually the sign of a scumbuddy that their partners don't want to throw under the bus, so assuming that lack of lynch = town was either bad reasoning on your part, or a bad attempt to deceive us by making shit up to cover your tracks.

Wrong. See Mafia vs. Wolves Redux. N1. You lose.

It was not a bad reasoning, it was a good gut. And what's all this about making shit up to cover my tracks? You are leaving me confused in wake here.

I'm thinking this is where the jumped conclusion (or so it appears to me) that I'm an ESE member. But I'm not getting how it works. Shed any light please?

You still have to explain to me your warped theory.

Unanswered question bolded.

[Raffles]

So why wouldn't a cult just start off as hunting to lynch scum in the first place? A townie is not a threat to the cult. Scum is.

[Raffles]

*snip-snip*
If I knew why this happened, I would have a Professor Mafia award for writing some sort of dissertation on why newbies do what they do. I just know that it's a common pattern to look for in newbies. Having not done something like that before myself, I wouldn't know why they do it. Perhaps they just can't think of anything good to say to defend themselves.

So there is no reasonable explanation - then I hope you don't take it hard on yourself when I say I don't buy it.

(BTW the suggestion you given there is crap - a scum, newbie or not, it doesn't hurt for them to try if their life is on the line)

Lost steam? Wtf?

I don't have a policy of lynching rather than replacing those who disappear. However, the last part of the day was during a busy time in RL, and I was barely around in the thread. I knew he was lurking somewhat, but the last time I'd been truly active in the thread he was at least posting every once in a while, so I couldn't ask for his replacement.

That was miswording on my part - sorry about that. It is meant to read "you have a policy of replacing those lost interest rather than lynching". Still you had the opportunity to ask replace when he dissapeared after repeated requests for a claim. Why did you go for OTU rather than active targets, like me?

*snippy-di-snip*

Now you're just twisting

my

words, hypocrit. I'm really tired of your semantic games, they aren't getting us anywhere.

I'm not sure I understand. Without evidence, sounds like you are firing blank rounds.

Whether or not you thought he was protown or just thought he wasn't scum, that doesn't matter. What does matter is that you are claiming that the circumstances surrounding his wagon convinced you that he was

not

a good lynch for the day, when by most logic it should've done the opposite. I'm not buying it.

That makes the two of us then (referring to the beginning).

And how do you expect to find out if there is a color coding consistency until more than one scum is dead? Something like that has no bearing on today, because we don't have enough information to make a reasonable assumption based on coloring. There is no good reason for you to have been that concerned about color right now.

Okay... what are you suggesting? Let's see... the red colour might be a mason? Oh and let's make the scum blue. And werewolves green. In fact, why not make the protagonist group red? (Except I know this doesn't work because OTU was black). So could red be something neutral? I can go on forever making stuff up with colours if there are 0 conformity.

What? How do your actions on day 1 have any basis in my theory that you are an ESE member? Your day 1 actions merely strength my suspicion that you are scum. Your repeated denial of any possiblity of there being a cult is what makes me think you are an ESE member. This has been said multiple times before, so you should start paying more attention, please.

So which one am I? Cult? Scum? Which do you think is ESE? You know it's kinda hard to defend myself when I don't know what I am being accused for.

[Raffles]

5votes... interesting.

@Flay and Reyo - the confusion with voting system was with Mr. Flay's deadline system. I didn't know that was unique to just him.

DGB: If I die today, and contray to whatever MoS say - regardless of whether I show up as a scum or not, you'd be in a very bad position tommorrow. If I'm a scum, MoS will hound your ass. If I'm a townie, I'm sure MoS will find a way to go after you for crap reason non-the-less. I don't think it's a scummy play what you did, a scum would quite happily join my wagon saying "oh I 100% agree with MoS". MoS hounding Reyo I believe is rather misplaced. But I don't think it's scummy.

@Reyo: I have discussed this thing with Mr. Flay on D1. Even if I do research anyone else on D1, I would have to come up with a blindingly obvious case to lynch someone on D1 before the deadline. So me being lazy, I didn't really bother. I went through this thing about no lynch or possibly-townie-lynch too.

[Raffles]

@Shanba - I'm dissapointed that you've missed out some of the most active players in the game.

[Raffles]

Why would a scum feel the need to sidetrack a wagon? You know, as much as I

do

look scummy, I'm not proven so just yet, so you can't go about saying she is my scumbuddy.

[Raffles]

Why would a scum feel the need to sidetrack a wagon? You know, as much as I

do

look scummy, I'm not proven so just yet, so you can't go about saying she is my scumbuddy.

Why would they feel need to sidetrack it? Possibly to save you? Because if, let's say, you are ESE, having you die today would be a second member lost. If you do indeed come up scum, DGB's actions would

look

like he was trying to move votes over to MoS in attempt to save you.

So which do you find more likely? This theory or DGB was speaking for himself, not being a mindless townie?

[Raffles]

Whatever. We've done this to death. If you got anything more to interrogate, shoot.

[Raffles]

Look, I consider myself having pretty ordered thoughts, and being accused of being irrational is somewhat of an insult. So long as you give ordered and direct questions, I will try and answer them as ordered as I can make it. If it doesn't conform to the tell, or you suspect me of outright lying then I'm sorry, there is nothing I can do about that. You either have to take in what I say or totally refuse to take it in at all. And if it is on the basis of latter that you are accusing me of;

a) I can't help you.
b) You can't really accuse me of failing at logic. I presented the logic and you are just not buying it.

[Raffles]

I think you mean Kison...?

[Raffles]

I'm thinking I should go and join MoS in painting the wall in an interesting shade called brain...

[Raffles]

I'm happy with way things are for the moment. It's a shame that no one blieves me, but at least they have plenty of info to go on if I die.

That is unless if majority of the players are scum, then it's kinda waste of time.

[Raffles]

@PBuG: I'm interested to know what your definition of long period is, because by your definition, some people aren't posting for many millenias...

The way I see DGB is he is playing a devil's advocate. I'm not sure how that is percieved in games.

MoS-BM show was quite funny, if it was an utter waste of time. To be fair I think BM makes some good observation. It's the logical conclusion that follows afterwards that looks like a space shuttle spinning out of control after launch.

Just thought I'd put few of my thoughts down.

[Raffles]

I think I made enough... it sort of boiled down to whether you take my word as it is or not.

[Raffles]

To be honest, I don't have much read on anyone. I suspect lurkers for obvious reasons. But suppose I was a dayvig, I have no one that I think needs to be killed at this instance.

All scum would shut up now, since now that I will die on deadline just by being left alone anyway. So trying to read on whoever participating heavily at the moment is useless. Unless some townies unvote me to put me in the "no lynch" zone, I don't think a scum would risk popping their head out. It's the exact pattern that was exhibited with OTU, not much to go on in the day, shit deadline is approaching, lets lynch whoever is easiest. I'm not the right person to ask, ask those people who is doing just enough to keep off the radar. Force them to speak. I think that's a place to start.

[Raffles]

Oh alright then, if you want to know, I have slight suspicion on Pbug.

He has so far accused both OTU and I for same reason. The lurkishness. I've been noticing it's hypocritical nature because when you isolate his posts, his posts really lacks in content. Indeed the only post of anything meaningful he made has been a one against me.

As individual players, regardless of the game's flow, Raffles has been exceptionally scummy through this entire game. He brilliantly distracted with the argument abou XReyoX's noobishness on Day 1, which became oh so much longer than it ever needed to be.

I don't see any of that, that was merely a random voting stage banter.

When the discussion is not going his way, he attempts the change the subject. When things still don't go his way, he quotes his post in which he attempts to change the subject several times, bolding and enlarging various parts of it, using sledgehammer and wrecking ball analogies along the way.

If you are talking about you guy's loaded questions of "but you are lying aren't you", then yes. I might have got a little irate.

Then a metagame post, making assumptions about the number of scum, not at all considering the balance of the game in terms of pro-town power roles.

What's people's problem with metagaming? I don't see anyone else complaining about me trying to guess what the set up of this game maybe, that was the whole thing with ESE, remember? People speculating if there could be a cult involved? Now how unbalanced is that, 2 scum groups and a cult. I don't see people bitching about that.

He actively lurks when he isn't acting out,

Speak for yourself.

his vote on OTU floating along unnoticed without any ascertainable reasoning.

There was a reasoning, you just refused to take it in.

Oh so often he appears to post because he can.

Yes I post because I can. I also post in vein to try to help the town win. Problems? Maybe you'd prefer me to shut up and lurk so you can lurk with me.

Once he actually posts reasoning, there is the giant hypocrisy of 'I can't really extract any useful contribution to the town from him, despite the number of posts he may have made more than most.'

Well it's true isn't it? At least my posts are somewhat more fruitiful than yours.

His vote does come off next post, I'll give him that. He gets stuck on ESE for a little while. Then a very long period of no real contribution. He does make the stunning point against MoS that despite the long stall on OTU's wagon, OTu was town. Now some bickering with MoS. His more recent actions have content, but only because he's arguing against a particular player.

Long period of no post... oh look maybe you missed this?

As of Apr 8

Okay I'm going to have a restricted access starting immediate until 16th. I may or may not be able to post once a day. I hope you don't find a need to replace me.

If I die, I'll prove to you for second time the stalling votes are some good indication of someone not worth a lynch. And a good chance of being a town at that.

[Raffles]

People are sorry bastads.

"Oh no there's a deadline! We must work with a deadline to lynch someone!"

How about not getting deadline imposed in the first place?

Anyone see a deja vu with OTU, or is it just me?

[Raffles]

If DGB was really interested in finding scum, she would suggest that people look to MORE than just BM, PBuG, and Raffles, so that we can get information on everyone.

Aren't you guilty of this yourself?

[Raffles]

Yea, and I sense distubance in the force. *sarcasm*

[Raffles]

What does everyone think of mneme's recent contribution.

[Raffles]

Now isn't that an appeal to emotion?

[Raffles]

WILL EVERYONE STOP JUMPING INTO CONCLUSIONS ON ASSUMPTIONS THAT I AM A SCUM?

[Raffles]

no claim yet.

[Raffles]

At least means 100% sure. What gives you 100% proof of three scum groups?

[Raffles]

You are contradicting yourself. At least means "minimum of". This means you

know

there are three scum groups. I can say there are at least two antagonist groups, with possibility of three.


At this moment, I am pretty convinced that mneme is an antagonist, if SK, mafia, wolf, ESE, whatever.

Vote: mneme

[Raffles]

Battle mage, what did I previously tell you?

[Raffles]

You are playing horribly.

Same could be said for yourself.

"At least" doesn't mean "I know" anything. It's a quantifier, not an emphasizer.

This kind of garbage, Raffles, is why I was voting you and why I will again.

Mafia isn't a game of semantics -- it's a game of deduction, comittment, and colletive behavior.

You are still not making sense. You can't mix "at least", and "I think" together. At least means there is a known minimum, I think means you don't know for sure.

I'm not arguing semantics. I'm arguing the possibility that you might have slipped and said more than you should have.

[Raffles]

Dear Battle Mage May 09 2007

First I would like to show my appreciation of your scumhunting. It is giving us information, which is always beneficial for the town.

However, I would like to give you a constructive criticism on your technique. Currently you are guessing at the alignment of other players, based on presumption that I am a scum.

I do not appreciate this, for reasons that might seem obvious. This is because if I turn up as a town, then all your speculation to-date is a waste of time. Since I'm looking to be the likely lynch at the moment, and since I know my own alignment, this is highly unadvisable. Should I turn up as a scum, then you are free to speculate all this in Day 3.

I am not about to convince you that I am a town. I think it is a little too late for that. But should you need to take a stab at someone, please make your best use on what remains of my life and assess the interactions of other players with me.

Kind Regards

Raffles





I tried blunt approach, I tried formal approach, take your pick.

[Raffles]

@MoS: I never ruled out the possibility of 3rd. Or if I did, I put it back in highly unlikely category. You should know this since this is what we've been bickering.

[Raffles]

Ahh, I'm getting you confused with MoS. (What does that say about you two?)

MoS and Kison attacks DGB on basis that I am a scum and DGB is trying to derail my wagon. Then you cast your suspicion on mneme

fyi-its my opinion that as scum, it is good to put suspicion on your buddies, but not to actually vote for them.
This could well be what Mneme is doing here. Of course, that is largely dependant on whether or not he is scum, but its my first thoughts.

besed on assumption DGB was a scum. I thought that stemmed off from me being scum.

[Raffles]

So you think it's highly unlikely that there is a third scum group, but it's highly likely that Mneme is a member of this unlikely third scum group? Right.

Would you like to stop twisting my words into a knot size of the universe? Thanks.

I said he is likely that he is an

antagonist

. I couldn't careless what scum group he is. He could be a 2321st scum group for all I could care.

[Raffles]

@Mneme

Out of 1~5

1. No read on alignment
2. Is scum
3&4. Is a wifom
5. is town.

So from this, what you are suggesting is there is no strong case to suggest that DGB is my scum buddy. In fact, there are far greater number of alternatives. If that is to be the case, then I can't see why DGB is scummy. I find it more of the case that other scums are over-pushing the option 2. Then I find this to be even more the case from your reasoning of how DGB's action is propagating me to the lynch.

[Raffles]

@mneme - Where am I WIFOMing? I'm pretty sure what I wrote down was pretty straight forward in my head.

@MoS: So? I said it was not a likely possibility. Big deal. Just because it's not likely that I will end up in Australia through quantum fluctuation, it doesn't mean it's not gonna happen. You are adamant that I'm a scum, so at the end of this day, you can stuff those words up your ass.

I hope everyone is noting what I'm being accused of. So far to my knowledge, I've been accused of high probability of: scum, mason and ESE. Mr. Flay has publicly announced he would commit game suicide if I don't turn out antagonist. Any more pledges? Keep them coming, I can start making some money for charity here...

[Raffles]

added point to MoS: Plus, aren't you missing a bigger picture here? I would quite happily die today, make no mistake on that. But mneme may have made a slip there you might want to investigate. What do you think about that?

[Raffles]

@Kison: I made accusation to more than one person. Other of which had been totally ignored. At this moment, I'm starting to think there are overwhelming majority of scums and game mechanics were fucked for towns from the start. What do you think of my case against Pbug?

[Raffles]

And towns, if any are alive watch this. I have been target no.1 from start of this day, attention hardly deviated. This game has some of the most prominent names on this site, who I believe to be better hunters, if they were town. After my death, you might be able to see roughly the number of scums you are dealing with. And I say it's quite a lot.

[Raffles]

It's hardly a logic, it's contradiction with my earlier argument about 3 scum groups being unlikely. And I conceded at the end that since we can't tell the colour of cult for sure, the existence of cult is then, and only then jsut as likely as there being 2 antagonist groups. (I do remember you pushing the cult agenda like it should be Christianity though)

On this basis I refuse to withdraw my reasoning of accusation of mneme. I mean, why? I don't have a reason to.

The point I'm attacking is he may have

known

there were 3 scum groups. I'm not disputing there shouldn't be 3 groups at all at this moment. You are just bringing that complication in. For what purpose, I don't know. Some sadistic enjoyment?

[Raffles]

Oh yea, because I don't want to be lynched. Did you read what I said? I'm quite willing to get myself lynched today.

[Raffles]

I'm not trying to derail a wagon. I'm leaving as much footprints as I can so when townies (like you, possibly?) come to analyze my posts tomorrow, then they got lots to go on?




Or would you rather just have me shut up because I'm being ever so detrimental to scums?

[Raffles]

Plus, where is the loss if we actually do lynch a scum today? That would be one happy ending, eh?

[Raffles]

Mod

: I never asked, but since the post rate is massively high, is it possible to get a deadline retraction?

Vote: retract deadline

@mneme: The scums had it easy on day 1. OTU just shut himself up. Best scenario for scums. I'm not going to do that. Worst case scenario for scum group collectively is a psychotic townie who is hellbent on making his every last minute alive count, whilst being identified at the end of the day that he is a town. More heavy fire I come under, the better.

[Raffles]

I'm dismayed by a lack of response for my case against Pbug. Is there anyone out there?

[Raffles]

@Battle Mage: Nope, I want a proper responese. Not just "Yes, I find him scummy". Which was basically the mneme's argument for me.

[Raffles]

@Akbar - Other scums in that context just means scums. Sorry.

[Raffles]

MoS, I ask you nicely. Don't guess things on basis that I am a scum. I assure you your musing is a waste of time.

[Raffles]

The only thing I'm having trouble deciding right now is whether DGB is a scumbuddy or Raffles or whether DGB is scum independant of Raffles...

[Raffles]

I thought by independent means different scum groups.

[Raffles]

Not technically, but I study maths. So I feel the need to rigorously enforce the definition of "independent" and "at least", which are words often comes up in statistics.

[Raffles]

Also, is Pbug the only person who is going to respond to my analysis of him? Am I to understand that there are so many scumbuddies of Pbug?

[Raffles]

Why do I care...?

[Raffles]

@MoS: The quoted comment was aimed at maths prof comment before that. Simulpost.

I wanted to know what you thought of it. That's all. I never asked you to attack Pbug or defend him.

[Raffles]

Ok, last post. I knew Phoebus won't be back before the deadline. I was looking at whether people would want it.

People who asked for deadline retraction since I have

MoS
Theopor COD
Akbar

People who posted after I asked but didn't say anything

DGB
Fuldu
Pbug
BM
Mneme


My last ditch effort to take some scums down with me.

[Raffles]

....aaaand Phoebus comes in at the nick of time.

lol Raffles, are you seriously suggesting that because some people didnt ask for a deadline retraction, they are scum. LMAO.
Thats some serious BM Logic u got there...

Well if you are a scum, you'd prefer me to shut the hell up and get lynched already. I'm not saying that's a 100% proof, just something that smells strong.

[Raffles]

Why would people want a deadline, if there is only one contender for a lynch?

If that person is actually lynch worthy, then he would accumulate his votes without the help of deadline. Improper lynch is never interest of a town, is it? Or is it in your interest to have a deadline lynch somehow?

[Raffles]

For not wanting to tell the scum how to play, I won't go into reasons why the deadline is so favourable to the scum, especially in this game.

[Raffles]

But what I will say is not wanting a deadline means a lot in this game more than the others.

[Raffles]

Scums have an pretty much assured win with deadline.

[Raffles]

Explaining that comment means teaching scums how to play, and this method in my mind is a very unsporting to the game and should not be employed (although I fear it has been employed to some extent). I will explain at the end game.

[Raffles]

In other words, Raffles needs to decide what that method is.

That's uncalled for. Go eat shit. No, really.


If people find this offensive, please ask for me to be replaced.

[Raffles]

I can take frustration. I won't take full out insults. If you got problem with that, tough. I don't play this game to be insulted in the first place.

A game doesn't require a deadline to move in any way. If you have deadline placed on yourselves, consider it you've done something wrong.

[Raffles]

He's got no basis to accuse me of such thing. It's totally an off-hand comment. It doesn't help anyone in anyway. Recipent took it as an insult, so even if it wasn't intended to be, it still is. Frankly any dipshit with dozen brain cells can figure it out, and I'm not having my intelligence insulted by some asshole who I don't even know that "I'm going to figure one out later". I have all the reason not to take that kind of shit from him.

[Raffles]

Ackbar: different power roles involve -huge- differences in correct scum play. DGB's play indicates one of: player going (IMO) out on a too-high limb, scum, or an appopriate power role. Without a disclaimer, scum are likely to assume the latter -- but any -public- claim of the latter requires substiantiation on a later day.

Either that, or it will result in her getting killed tonight, regardless of her alignment. I offer you my congratulations. If she's a scum, I guess that's good for town, and she will get killed by other scum group. Problem with this being I can't see why a scum would try to keep me alive. So alternatively, she's a power-role that investigated me last night. Now wouldn't scums love to kill her now?

Or she could genuinely be a townie with a hunch.

By contrast, correct town play is very different for "a power role" and "anything else", given the text.

What does that mean?

[Raffles]

Is it really a better plan to focus on one person? The way I feel, no one is properly scum hunting in this game. Everyone is just looking for someone to pin up on the wall.

Other games I'm in, everyone is scrutinizing each other's posts to great depth, pointing things out when they are spotted. In this game I feel that blatant foul plays are being ignored.

[Raffles]

Sure, I'll do it in 2 days time.

[Raffles]

I'm curious as to those who picked up the prod but still not responding.

[Raffles]

Mneme, you presume some of the most odd things. Me getting ability to claim an ESE later? Flay's sudden post restriction (rather post-bannage) midday? Why are you cooking up these reasons and turning a complete blind eye to more obvious ones?

[Raffles]

Or of course, a complete lie to send us on a wild goose chase for the day. There are too many possibilities and I don't feel like accepting that claim on the face value.

What do people think of the circumstances surrounding Flay's death?

[Raffles]

IH is a miller? I thought mayor was a generic role.

[Raffles]

Yeah, but arn't all politics technically scum in the eyes of the beholder? The perfect set up for the miller role to come in would be a politicain.

No, as in, mayor is a role like doc and cop.

[Raffles]

Is it only me that thinks people are stretching reason to find ways to lynch me? I mean, lynching me on the basis of 3rd scum group rather than actually laying out reasons on why they think I'm a scum.

If it is reasonable it's fair enough, but then you have to draw a line at idiocy.

FoS: The Greg
Big BIG FoS: Pbug
Vote: Pbug

[Raffles]

I have laid out reasoning against you in the past. I felt no need to restate it all over again.

Which I believe I've counter-argued, and you brushed it off as me calling you hypocrite. You did not attempt in defending yourself anyway from being qa hypocrite, however.

[Raffles]

Well I checked this off the watched list, because I think it was night 4 when Phoebus said those still participating send in a PM. I clearly needed out of this game because I had too much workload so didn't send him one. :/