Open 530 "WSoB" (Stack the Deck): GAME OVER

[InflatablePie]

'sup bitches.

will do some quick-skimming between tonight and tomorrow.

[InflatablePie]

only skimmed up to page 8 so far, but I'm getting scumvibes from pieguy

mostly because of this:

And suddenly a venrob wagon starts. This is quite interesting.

HoS: Sakura

just pointing out what's going on and calling it "interesting" instead of analyzing it or posting their opinion on it

while avoiding the venrob wagon discussion, and then this:

calls a wagon stupid which, in the end, regardless of how it started, ended up giving town information. you know, your opposing faction

talking to Sakura, and then he immediately votes the same person Sakura is voting. wha


Venrob is probtown actually, and Brian is also a townread

[InflatablePie]

ETL reminded me further down the page to comment on something earlier:

A self-vote means that you're voting for the only person you know is confirmed town (if you're town) hence holds no info,

the "if you're town" part I really don't like. really don't. on the other hand, I'm not sure how to feel about her flailing-esque actions (calling herself out for "screwing up" etc) once she starts gathering votes.

also getting mad scumvibes off ETL but I probably shouldn't be because her posts have logic and reason, wat

eagle can be town I guess, thenewearth gives me scumvibes as well.

and jacob can be town for his pieguy scumread reasoning, I like it.

up to page 10ish, gonna go do laundry and either finish skimming or play some kingdom hearts 1.5, not sure yet.

[InflatablePie]

quickly skimmed the rest of the pages before work

I'm okay with TNE or pieguy wagons, indifferent about Sakura.

vote pieguy

gonna be stretched for time this weekend but I should be able to make at least one or two more posts before deadline

[InflatablePie]

if you think two players are scum, you don't vote with your other scumread.

I could see you being scum with Sakura and not willing to bus her too heavy D1.

[InflatablePie]

@IP: Who are you talking to?

pieguy. sorry for not quoting.

if you think two players are scum, you don't vote with your other scumread.

I could see you being scum with Sakura and not willing to bus her too heavy D1.

why not? I'll vote for anyone who I think is scum, kthx.

ok... I'll still think you're scum for it? like, town usually expresses some sort of dislike for voting with one of their scumreads, you didn't seem to have a problem.

really not liking the way votes are dropping down on this wagon... gonna need to look into it quickly before bed or work tomorrow.

[InflatablePie]

228 gives me townvibes, same with 232's "white knighting" comment. I see scum defending townies for towncred all the time, logic checks out.

like, this wagon is TERRIBLE and I'm wondering why everyone is going with it.

[InflatablePie]

ank's logic for his post (the so called case) is bad

ETL saying she can't see a single reason for pieguy scum when I gave some reasons is irritating.

"I can buy Jacob scum case" - sakura -- what case? ank's post is barely a case... goddamn this reeks.

alduskkel's vote also sucks (would have been fine with it if he hadn't called jacob scummy tbh)

and no surprise that pieguy again does not care that a scumread of his is on the wagon, just jumps right on.

if anyone wants to try and swing a sakura or pieguy wagon, I'll be able to post around 1pm est hopefully. not joining the jacob wagon, even if it means no lynch. really really not liking the way things are going down.

[InflatablePie]

atm, you're doing the same thing to Jacob as he claimed I was doing to Venrob. why is it suspicious when I do it but not you?

oh, if you find me suspicious for doing this then I completely understand. I'm not saying it isn't.

your other logic is kind of ehhhh though. I actually don't mind a D1 NL tbh. mafia usually kill y'know (even if they pick who)

and, the possibility he accused me to distract attention from Sakura and then called me x Sakura team for the sake of distancing makes sense imo

so instead of thinking it's me and Jacob (which would make more sense given the situation), you default to Sakura again.

you keep calling her scum but then seem to just ignore her existence otherwise and that bugs me.

but I still want to vote JS because he's not really sticking to his reads and he's not voting for his scum reads

you're explaining this tomorrow, as is everyone else, because I saw him give a town/null/scum list and explain his reads later and people keep repeating this.

Seriously... Two PRs in one day. Something is not right here, I just don't see two PRs manage to look so scummy.

it happens. don't try and line up a lynch.

[InflatablePie]

there's at least one scum in [Aldusk, Hiraki, ETL, TNE] and one or two in [Brian, Sakura, Eagle, Ankamius] if we rule out Jacob as a lynch for today, which I would like to do. scum are rarely all on one wagon, especially ones popping up so close to deadline.

Aldusk is... eh, I'm suspicious of him for his reasoning in the JS vote as I said. not sure if he's scum or not though.

Hiraki I need to look into more

ETL I've been getting mad scumvibes off of for some reason. also unvoted but did not hammer pieguy close to deadline. she's probably not the traitor but could still be scum.

TNE I'll look into some more, did think he was scummy at some point though and nothing's really changed.

---

Brian is probtown, his posts just give townvibes to me.

Sakura is scummy as shit holy fuck. by far the one I want to lynch from that wagon.

Eagle I need to look into again.

Ankamius, I'm not a fan of his reasoning for things but I think he could be town.

tl;dr:
town: ank, brian
null: Aldusk
looking into: Hiraki, Eagle
scummy: TNE, ETL
scum: sakura

vote: sakura

I have a day off tomorrow so hopefully you guys won't be waiting long for my other two reads.

[InflatablePie]

I meant I was indifferent to a Sakura wagon as opposed to pieguy/tne.

she saw the points I had on pieguy, ignored them and went for Jacob with an "I can buy ank's case" reason that sucked, and then voted pieguy with "I like IPie's points on you" after I called her out for her shitty JS vote. also the fact that she used that reasoning, one that was so similar to the one she joined the JS wagon with, that pings my scumdar.

not that I didn't already think she was kinda scummy (still have to look into her flailing, it's possible I can find a towntell in there but I doubt it) as I said earlier.

[InflatablePie]

re: Hiraki

selfvote vs reasonless vote logic in 41 reads townie to me. makes a few more posts with logical questions and opinions. not giving much in the way of straight reads though (although that isn't necessarily condemning...), although I guess you can infer them via the questions he's asking.

very overdefensive post in 302. I didn't read Aldusk's post as calling Hiraki scummy per se, and this seems... dramatic. pieguy pointed this out in 307. same thing with 316; very defensive.

on the other hand, I don't think scum would usually be so over-the-top and reactive to someone implying they're scummy. I think they'd be more calm and calculating and whatnot and not try to draw attention to themselves. aldusk wasn't really calling him scummy at first, it look like, so I don't see why scum-Hiraki would find him threatening and try to wagon him. So Hiraki getting all uppity about this plus countervoting Aldusk may actually mean he's town.

I'd give him a pass for now but at the same time he probably shouldn't survive to near lylo.

[InflatablePie]

oh, random thought while I look at D.Eagle

so I looked back at Jacob to see if he gave reads and explained them and whatnot (I think ETL and someone else was saying this but no one pointed it out to me), and yeah, he didn't seem to give much reasoning but said he did.

...but I think scum would usually try and state reads and make sure their reasoning stays consistent, no? it seems like something scum would want to keep track of. like, if you're scum and someone's like "hey you didn't explain this read" I feel like you'd be more likely to say "oh I'm sorry, here:" not "I thought I already explained them".

so there's some more townpoints for Jacob.

[InflatablePie]

re: Eagle

post 188:
re:13 - this question is kinda bad and doesn't make sense.
re:21 - it was the timing.
re:28 - har har.

post 190:
re:50 - don't get what he's getting at here, asking pieguy why he only gave his opinion on a wagon when asked to. uhh?
re:56 - vaguely calls Hiraki scummy and asks why TNE isn't paying attention to him. interesting.
re:74 - more of this "why are you saying stuff about X but not Y" is throwing pings onto my scumdar.
re:103 - ... this is a good question though.

Ank, wanna explain this one?

re:113/119 - throws suspicion on Venmar then suspicion on Brian for jumping on Venmar. uhh...
re:121 - throwing suspicion on Sakura for calling Ank scummy... wasn't he kind of implying Ank was scummy two points up?

gonna pause here and note that Eagle seems to be asking a lot of questions that imply he thinks the person he's asking is scummy.

"you did this while someone else did this, what's up with that?" (hypocrisy scumtell)
"you're gonna comment on

only one thing

? *someone else attacks that person* I don't like this attack".
"why are you thinking she's town for defending someone you think is scum?"

like, go read this post and look at the questions and posts he's quoting, and look at the attitude he has. I don't know if I'm explaining it well, but maybe someone else will see what I mean. and I get having multiple scumreads and all but he seems to be suspicious of literally everyone. maybe I'm looking too much into it? anyway...

re:128 - whiteknighting

is

something scum does to town for towncred, but that's not necessarily the definition. not a bad point though. actually... why would scum defend scum so hard? that's a really good point.

re:151 - I caught something interesting here. see end of post

post 299:

JS, why are you still pushing for a Venrob lynch given the claim? I have a light scumread on you, but it's not worth a vote yet. Just a FoS for now.

didn't both of you say something accusatory about using FoS (well HoS) instead of votes earlier? this pings my scumdar a bit.

not liking the hydra dissonance-esque "I need to ask my other head" stuff in 348 and 373.

all in all... kinda scummy? but at the same time he does have some good points and questions. I'd put him between null and scummy; I would much rather lynch someone else today but I have a close eye on him for sure.

---

re: 151

ETL: "There's few scum who bus hardcore D1 and actually seek to run their partner up to L-1 in the first 10 pages. Their first duty is to help their partner mislynch."

"partner". ... that's an interesting choice of word. there's three scum. one's a traitor, yeah, but in my mind I still consider there being three scum. so when I'm thinking of this type of stuff, I'm thinking that scum have two partner

s

. Why did you say "partner"?

---

tomorrow I'll look into ETL and TNE some more as well. or play more KH the entire day, I dunno

[InflatablePie]

"why are you thinking she's town for defending someone you think is scum?"

+ "*to the other person* why are you thinking

he

is scummy for selfvoting?"

[InflatablePie]

preemptive prod dodge. sorry, got busy the past two days, will post tonight/tomorrow after work

[InflatablePie]

IP has this way of calling someone scummy and then second-guessing himself and putting off actually applying any pressure

yeah, I do this. *shrug*

re: Sakura, she seemed to be flailing a lot yesterday and I didn't like her vote reasoning(s). I remember her 133 sticking out to me and thinking she may be scum with pieguy, but then I looked again and she still could be scum even with town-pieguy. that was shitty reasoning in hindsight but it made sense at the time. the "I can buy Jacob-scum" switch once she hopped off whatever was the prior leading wagon (Ven?) was terrible. DE has some good points up there on this page, even though I have him marked as scummy.


on that note, I also don't like some of my support on this wagon. ETL, TNE... ehhhh. I still need to look into them; I've been having a busy past few days and have been putting this game off, sorry.

I still think lynching among [Brian, Eagle, Sakura, Ank, Jacob] is the best chance we have of hitting scum. Brian's a townread and we're not lynching Jacob. I'm not really thinking Ank is scum either. Between Sakura and Eagle, Sakura is the superior choice.

Aldusk, do you think the wagon yesterday was completely towndriven?

My response to you in 119 and this goes for IP as well is the fact that you've been calling Venrob scum (for the same thing you did, mind you) to the point that even him claiming he got us out of RVS was something useless yet you felt the need to comment on something so petty. Its bothersome. It just screams either "tunnelvision" or "more discrediting"

I'm confused

[InflatablePie]

aldusk, your questions/reaction to me were making me lean town on you but then you had to make that dumb Hiraki vote. that reasoning sucks

I'll answer those questions when I'm not on my phone at work btw

[InflatablePie]

... hence why I'm not elaborating yet on why that post is bad

[InflatablePie]

ps don't tell me what to do you're not my mom

[InflatablePie]

I'm sorry mommy please don't grab the belt again I'll be a good boy I promise

[InflatablePie]

Why do you ask, by the way? And why do you ask me in particular?

Also, don't you think it's a problem to be so wishy-washy? (re: my 429)

Since typically scum like to lynch town, had you responded "no, the wagon could not have been 100% towndriven" I would have followed up by asking you the most likely scum then, because you think Sakura is town.

do you think it's unreasonable to lynch from the pieguy wagon first? or do you think it's more strategic to lynch off the wagon first?

and I can see if people have a problem with me being a bit back-and-forth but I don't really care so yeah.

[InflatablePie]

hmm.

unvote
vote ETL

[InflatablePie]

well Sakura was on the pieguy wagon and her reasoning was shit yet you still think she's town. just sayin'.

actually, Sakura brought JS from L-1 to L-2, bringing pieguy to L-2. eagle switched to put him at L-1, ETL unvoted Jacob, and Ank hammered.

I need to sit down and think a bit harder about how this wagon switched over actually. although it may need to wait for another flip...

[InflatablePie]

I'm pretty sure I see what IPie is referring to here, actually.

do you?

re: 151
ETL: "There's few scum who bus hardcore D1 and actually seek to run their partner up to L-1 in the first 10 pages. Their first duty is to help their partner mislynch."

"partner". ... that's an interesting choice of word. there's three scum. one's a traitor, yeah, but in my mind I still consider there being three scum. so when I'm thinking of this type of stuff, I'm thinking that scum have two partners. Why did you say "partner"?

you avoiding me, ETL?

[InflatablePie]

I want a cookie

someone give me a reason to stop being apathetic

or just tell me who to sheep

[InflatablePie]

don't tell me what to do you're not my mom

also I thought I was voting her already

[InflatablePie]

Would like more content from IP.

my incredible apathy prevents me from doing so.

however, I do apologize immensely for contributing to the problem here; will try to provide more content d3.

[InflatablePie]

Hiraki is dumb, not necessarily scum. His NL convo with Brian would have resulted in him backing off, not defending NL if he was scum. Scum know defending NL is idiotic.

Aldusk I'm not getting a scum vibe from after today.

Sakura I want to be scum but I can't get the self vote out of my head.

notscience I'm liking more than TNE but still think he's most likely scum based off PoE.

[InflatablePie]

So I was going to let today unfold normally and not just extend my hand here, but I'm honestly not good/patient enough as a player for that and don't want to risk dying tonight regardless. We have Jacob alive anyway, who is town since a Strongman exists (on the 2% chance he's scum, he gets lynched if I die tonight btw). We're at 7:2, tonight Jacob dies and it goes to 5:2, next night I die and it goes to 3:2. Assuming I can't roleblock the last scum.

I roleblocked Brian last night.

I don't think scum hit the traitor.

vote: Brian

Discuss.

[InflatablePie]

Here's something I saved in a word doc N1/D2 for later use:
out of all the options, why would scum pick JOAT? personally I'd pick role cop for sure, maybe/probably recruit traitor, and maybe daytalk in that order.

also, if they did use a strongman kill to get the Goon Cop, they probably have one Goon or the recruited traitor. they could have left the goon cop alive if they picked two goon upgrades (between PR claim WIFOM + investigation-immune) but they killed him instead because they probably have a goon. so they didn't pick another goon upgrade.

unless they picked Rolecop or BP + JOAT + traitor recruit. but it seems there's no vig and certainly no innocent child, leaving four max town PRs. max is five if scum pick three upgrades. so we know that scum only picked zero or one or two upgrades. and, if JS is telling the truth, they have a strongman, so they did not pick BP or rolecop; if they did, they had no reason to kill the gooncop.

I'm also betting that they picked recruit traitor and Strongman; more reason to kill the gooncop sooner.

---

N1 I roleblocked Aldusk because he was a nullread. I don't like blocking the obviously scummy people because not only can I get them lynched on my own, but the scummy people are not the ones sending in a kill because of roleblockers/trackers.

D2 he responded well to some questions I asked him, so I changed him to a townread. I think it was him that called Brian scum; someone did. I looked back at Brian after reading something else someone was saying in a game of mine that just ended. And I got the vibe that he's that one scum player that everyone thinks is town. You guys know, that one player in almost every game that explains all his reads and thoughts and is just so townie? I do that shit as scum. I come off as town. I'm not buying it.

So I blocked him and well here we are.

[InflatablePie]

oh, I just realized I said there'll be two scum alive after today, so clarification before Brian-scum tries to pull the 'scumslip' angle: I was thinking worst-case scenario as evidenced by pointing out the slim chance of Jacob-scum (which I wouldn't do if he wasn't being useless btw). that, and/or my tired brain forgot we lynched scum yesterday. also if I was scum and 'slipped' why would I do so at a point where I'd get lynched by LYLO (example: 7-2, mislynch 5-2 jacob dead, mislynch 3-2 I'm still alive?) when I could just coast.

just thought I'd get that out of the way now because I

know

someone will bring it up, even if this makes it seem a bit defensive.

[InflatablePie]

you can vote Brian and save face by bussing now, or we can lynch you next.

your call, ns.

[InflatablePie]

you know when Brian flips scum I'm blocking you tonight right

if you're scum you're throwing the game.

[InflatablePie]

I'm bored and waiting to leave for an event today, so I have time to chat.

assume I'm scum. what is the scum motivation for me claiming roleblocker after bussing my scumbuddy yesterday.

I actually want to hear your train of thought because even stepping back and trying to look at things from an outside POV I have no idea how you've come to this line of reasoning.

[InflatablePie]

seriously, you can stop playing the "lol you're scum you're so cute" card. it's annoying enough when Fate does it.

if you think I'm scum, then I'm pushing a lynch on a townie, then I deserve to be lynched, so you should make a case for

why

I'm lying

so like, you should be doing this anyway. I don't want to hear the "I'm not giving my reasons because you're scum" argument.

[InflatablePie]

okay.

so I'm scum. I (or we) NK'd to do this gambit. This is HOPING there's not a roleblocker in the setup. (I'm just gonna say 'we' from this point on to make it easier btw)

We

could

have a rolecop to help with this, but this is not likely as I outlined earlier, given that they killed a scummy Goon Cop instead of leaving him alive for WIFOM. unless they recruited traitor AND chose two upgrades.

this is all a stretch but let's keep going.

so now we push a mislynch on a townie. he dies, and jacob has to die tonight because he's fairly conf-town after ETL flipped scum. ok.

it's now 5:2, I'm alive, pull the scum-hit-traitor card, we lynch another townie. kill a townie tonight.

it's 3:2, I'm alive in LYLO. I get lynched and it goes to 3-man. and at this point I would have had to be confident enough that my scumbuddy distanced himself enough to not get lynched in LYLO.

so to recap: hope there's not a roleblocker, NK despite being down a scumbuddy, pull this wild gambit where I get lynched in LYLO anyway, and pray my scumbuddy can pull the win.

is this accurate?

[InflatablePie]

if I had a dollar every time I had to mention Occam's Razor in a game...

[InflatablePie]

not only would we no-kill to put ourselves behind a full lynch, but we also pray there's a tracker and not a roleblocker in the setup. (since there's no vig or IC).

in which case, unless we chose two upgrades and recruited traitor (again, reason for killing scummy GoonCop), I'm getting tracked. but that can't happen. goon cop, bodyguard, and let's assume tracker and I'm fakeclaiming. town needs one more PR. meaning an IC (no), vig (no), or roleblocker. oops.

okay so we chose one upgrade and recruited traitor, right? still leaves room for a tracker? wait a second, town gets 2+2 upgrades and there's no IC or Vig. so they have a roleblocker. shit.

ok, so we didn't recruit traitor. then I am on my own, have to kill Jacob, and I'm getting tracked.

is this smart?

[InflatablePie]

*two more PRS in the first example, I suck at math

so yeah still impossible

[InflatablePie]

wait wait lemme guess

I'm scum, hit my traitor last night, and am claiming roleblocker to save face

again praying there's not a blocker (50/50 chance)

again getting tracked to the NK for the rest of the game

umm.

[InflatablePie]

the ONLY way this theory can make sense, is if there IS a vig despite two nights showing evidence against that and he shot the traitor both nights like a dumbfuck. he can't have been roleblocked because I have to be lying about being a blocker too. so if ANYONE ELSE wants to claim roleblocker besides Brian, be my guest.

and this STILL assumes I'm ballsy enough to gambit the claim.

occam's razor, get on the fucking wagon already.

[InflatablePie]

oh

wait

traitor's only a one shot bp isn't he

so how can there be a vig if there's not a roleblocker then

there can be a bulletproof scum guy and a strongman? meaning they didn't recruit traitor and killed off a scummy and USELESS goon cop n1. see, if goon cop scanned one of them it wouldn't have mattered, and even if it's useless you still get subconcious towncred for having that inno on you.

oh but that puts us back at the 4 PRs scenario too, meaning there's a tracker AND a vig. I didn't recruit my traitor so I'm getting tracked WOOP WOOP WOOP

I'm gonna go get ready for my event, be back tonight.

[InflatablePie]

Why do you need to overexplain yourself?

I hate it when people are dumb.

[InflatablePie]

And I don't want scum ns to try and argue out of this

It actually saves me frustration.

[InflatablePie]

I blocked Ank last night for his hammer-but-not-really on ETL and his support but non vote on Brian yesterday.

Now if you'll excuse me, I'm gonna go bang my head against a wall for the rest of Day phase

[InflatablePie]

there's also probably a scum in [Aldusk/Hiraki/DE] given that all of those votes had... not much or any reasons really, just piled on after the tracker claim.

this supports Sakura's logic, even if that's on the basis of her assuming Ank is scum first. not sure if that means I'm on the right track or terribly off-base again.

[InflatablePie]

...Okay? The first point isn't that strong and the second one is just plain bad.

don't get cheeky wit me, boi

my points seem fine, actually, as well.

I actually don't think we lynch Ank here, sec

[InflatablePie]

yeah, even if Ank can possibly be scum, I don't think we lynch him.

it's 6:2 (6:1:1), we lynch today and go to 5:2 (5:1:1). scum are forced to kill tonight if they gambited and it's not Ank (4:2 / 4:1:1). meaning JS dies because if I die or something then JS is confscum. if they don't kill tonight or if I block right we get an extra lynch

and

it's one step closer to a lylo with confirmed town alive.

[InflatablePie]

well yeah. it's if I didn't that's the problem.

I

think

I keep blocking Ank here and force scum to show their hand, but we keep him alive in case I'm blocking right.

if a kill goes through he's confirmed as town, provided I keep blocking him.
if a kill doesn't go through, either he's confirmed scum or scum have to keep no-killing in order to not confirm him, giving us more lynches.

or we can lynch him here and see if scum gambit my block again.

[InflatablePie]

I really don't think they no-killed both nights. that would require them having a rolecop (again then why kill the scummy gooncop n1?) or being super ballsy.

no lynching is bad (for now. and probably even at 4:2 if I'm alive.)

... could JS be the traitor? <_<

but yes, scum need to either kill JS (which if he's a traitor, and they tried to shoot him the other night, won't happen) or keep no-killing. and if they just no-kill all the way to lylo that's probably fine.

[InflatablePie]

I think it's super unlikely that JS is the traitor given that we have a flipped Strongman which seems like a huge coincidence but still.

killing JS the night after ETL died was probably the right play, especially if they only picked one upgrade.

... wait I need to think.

[InflatablePie]

they picked strongman. other options are:
- bulletproof (no)
- recruit traitor (didn't happen)
- rolecop (90% sure no)
- daytalk (maybe?)

so either they picked daytalk or JS is scum.

which doesn't REALLY help us I guess.

[InflatablePie]

Ankamius, JS, Pie - not lynching

notscience - eh, TNE's slot was bad and he's kinda bad but I dunno, he may just be town.
DEagle - not getting good vibes from this slot; wouldn't mind lynching.
Alduskel - probably town after all.
Sakura - also probably town, although regrettably.
Hiraki - probably not scum, really bad at this game, would honestly not mind lynching before LYLO so he doesn't frak up.

I think chaining DE into Hiraki is a good start. 5:2 going into night and then we see if Ank is confirmed town or if scum wanna lay low (as always, assuming he's not scum).

vote Eagle

If JS is town and dies tonight, we lynch Hiraki tomorrow I

think

.
If there's no kill tonight, I think we lynch JS just in case and have me die that night if we frak up and he's town + scum no-kill-gambited twice, leaving Ank as confirmed town in lylo. If we lynch wrong, we're basically just SOL at the 3-way.

we can also lynch Hikari anyway, go to 4:2 into night. if scum kill (JS), we're at 3:2 with two confirmed townies and one in LYLO.

[pedit] congrats Sakura you're catching up to my line of thought.

actually that might be best.

we can change the planned lynchees as necessary; feel free to discuss.

[InflatablePie]

yeah, we lynch Eagle (or someone else), go to 5:2 tonight, if they kill JS, 4:2 into Day, me and Ank confirmed town, we lynch again, if we ML it's 3:2 into Night and I have to block correctly between townie/traitor/goon.

seems good


pedit: ok ns. please stop, I don't want this town to have a mass aneurysm and accidentally vote me to lynch. that'd be unfortunate.

[InflatablePie]

actually wait till yabbaguy gets in here and posts a VC so I can immortalize the stupidity of you and Hiraki.

I'll just quote it at you whenever appropriate.

[InflatablePie]

well I

guess

you guys should wagon me to L-1 and see who hammers then

secret scumhunting tech go

[InflatablePie]

no no no I got this

vote: inflatablepie

someone L-1 me, we can catch scum this way

new paragon of mafia hunters coming through

[InflatablePie]

unvote

you guys aren't any fun.

[InflatablePie]

you guys aren't

stupid

.

ftfy

are you sure

pedit: nah I don't think he's scum.

[InflatablePie]

Well, let me know when this game stops being completely ridiculous.

YESSIR

vote: yabbaguy

[InflatablePie]

<3 yabbaguy

so anyway

we can lynch Ank today, I'm kind of okay with that but I still think just keeping him alive and exploring other options could be a good option in case there was a gambit again. it's the safer choice if he's town. lynching him results in 4:2 with only me as conftown alive (if we ML and scum kill JS tonight).

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vote: Eagle

parking this here till tomorrow night when I get off work.

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Yeah, we keep Ank alive at least for one day. If there's another no kill, we maybe lynch him tomorrow. If there is a kill, we have at least two confirmed town.

Currently I'm thinking Ank scum and Jacob traitor, but I'd like to go after the most likely scum besides them.

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Prod response.

I need to look at votecounts when I get home. I think I might be wrong on Eagle but I need to double check something.

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unvote

hmm. Eagle and ETL were voting Sakura a lot together, and staying fairly close to each other on the wagon. I'd think scum would want to distance themselves more from their buddy.

So Eagle and Hiraki probably aren't scum due to interactions with ETL, neither is Sakura (one of ETL's pushes, also the selfvote thing), neither am I. Leaving Ank/Jacob/Aldusk/notsci. I'd think scum-notsci would have backtracked more after I pwned him in our little spat regarding my claim, not just basically said "...goddammit.". And I kinda think Aldusk is town, but that's mostly gut.

It's kind of hard to decide who to lynch when I have townreads on everyone except the two people who, strategically, it's a bad idea to lynch. Hrm.

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I mean, we

can

lynch Ank, I just think that in case I'm wrong again we take a lot less damage from lynching through other people.

8 alive, let's say we lynch... Aldusk or someone, go to 7. Scum miss a kill again tonight. This means they either want to frame Ank, or Ank is scum. This is LYLO as well, since if we ML and I block wrong, it's game over. They won't even kill Ank tonight since that confirms him as town, it'd be easier to no-kill and have only one confirmed town in probably-LYLO. So this plan only works if Ank is scum, if he's town it's kinda useless.

... I kind of think lynching Ank is the right move now actually.

... Also, I'd like to bring up, again, that since scum probably lack a rolecop/BP/did not recruit traitor (evidenced by no-kill + ETL slipping by saying "scum 'partner' "), Jacob is only town if scum decided to pick daytalk. Which with two people seems like a not great upgrade. And the correct play after ETL was lynched would be to take out the 'confirmed' Bodyguard, which apparently scum hit traitor...

k, I'm really really leaning towards this crazy scumteam idea.

vote Ankamius

fuck it, if he's town we can just figure this out tomorrow.

[pedit] see vote.

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dead thread, if one exists, is probably yelling at me for either being completely off-base, or for going back and forth between correct and incorrect plays and playing with their emotions.

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I'm an idiot and did my math wrong.

If they took rolecop they would have left Venrob's slot alive since he was thought to be scummy but they insta-killed him instead.

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IP, they might have also recruited the Traitor, which would have given them grounds to immediately kill Bert.

So they randomly no-killed N2 after ETL was lynched?

unvote

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Well if they picked something more than just JOAT then they KNEW there was roleblocker, right?

So you think they picked JOAT, recruited Traitor, and no-killed rather than killed the 'confirmed' bodyguard (with Gooncop dying despite roleblock and strongman flip)?

If Jacob was town, how is this smart?
If Jacob is scum, this is impossible (no BG counterclaim, vig, or IC).

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NKing two nights in a row is dumb, especially now with a roleblocker alive. Because if scum end up getting lynched they can get screwed over.

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So... should we lynch JS then?

Um. No.

If I'm wrong and JS

is

town, I die tonight. What does this accomplish?

vote Alduskkel

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It's not confusing if you actually

think

.

- Scum either took one, or two powers. We know one is the strongman.
- If scum only took a Strongman role, Jacob is scum.
- Scum

probably

did not take rolecop or bulletproof, due to killing the scummy goon cop n1.
- Scum

could

have taken daytalk or recruited traitor, the latter meaning they no-killed N2.
- Jacob has been seen as scummy by some, but is still alive. Venrob/Bert was seen as scummy, but died.
- Scum did not succeed in killing the night after ETL died (N2), and I did not roleblock scum that night. Either they no-killed or hit traitor.
- Scum did not succeed in killing last night, when I blocked Ankamius. Either they no-killed or I blocked scum-Ank.
- The strongest play after ETL died (confirming a Strongman, thus 'confirming' Jacob), is to kill the bodyguard N2.

Some facts and speculation to help this along.

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I'm liking either Aldusk for a lynch today after the past page of conversation, or we bite the bullet and kill Ank and see what happens.

Since I did my math wrong and tomorrow's a 5:2 with a no-kill, I'm fine with not lynching Ank today, since we get another lynch if scum don't kill tonight. If they do kill tonight, we'll have at least one more confirmed town and it's LYLO.

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That's what led me to believe JS is scum. Guess no one's been reading my posts.

@Aldusk: not liking the way our convo about speculation went. Every time I came up with a point (which I've already stated), you led me to another point, and somehow we got to lynching JS, which... no. I think he's scum but I don't necessarily think he's our lynch. Especially if I'm wrong, then we're out two PRs. I'd rather narrow down the chances first.

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This is quite confusing. If you think JS is scum, when exactly do you want to lynch him?

When I die, probably.

Let's say we lynch someone today (town), and I die tonight. Scum trade me off for Jacob-traitor. Alternatively, they kill him tonight if he's town, and I have one day left to find the last scum pretty much. If he's the Traitor, they can't kill him, so...

unvote

YOU ARE TEARING ME APART WITH YOUR TOWNIE RESPONSES, ALDUSKKEL


And you know what, fine, fuck it. Ank can't be a PR and he's being fucking lurky and useless watching this town self-destruct.

vote Ankamius

If he's town, well, scum need to make a choice tonight anyway. I'm fine with it going to LYLO (4:2) with me being the only town alive, because if someone dies tonight it

has

to be Jacob. Otherwise scum can't really make any other kill. If they kill me, Jacob gets lynched. If they kill a random townie it just makes it easier for us to hunt in LYLO.

I'm dumb, sorry.

Everyone off the Hiraki wagon, as much as I don't want him fucking up in LYLO he's probably town.

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*only confirmed town alive

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...

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yeah, if we lynch town here and JS is scum, scum can kill me tonight to trade for JS if I block wrong, leaving us at a 3:1 LYLO/MYLO situation. gonna guess it's gonna be Sakura/Hiraki/notscience/Eagle, because Aldusk is at least competent. unless he's wrong, then he's left alive and someone else dies.

if we lynch town and JS is town, he dies tonight and we're at 4:2, which I

think

we lynch at that point since I can still block.

if we lynch Ankscum and JS is scum, he basically can't kill me. lols.

if we lynch Ankscum and JS is town, we're at 5:1 assuming a NK goes through (JS dies), and 3:1 LYLO/MYLO if I block wrong again. I can announce my blocks beforehand to either squeeze another lynch or force scum to no-kill over and over.

eh, all situations look fine to me.

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What if they don't trade JS for you? What if we lynch town, JS is town, and he doesn't die tonight?

if scum kill someone else tonight and JS is town they're dumb. (4:2 with 3 confirmed town gg).

if I block right or they no-kill we get an extra lynch for sure (5:2).

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well, not 3 confirmed town exactly (since I have no idea if Jacob is town tbh), but it might as well be in that situation. we're lynching from whoever isn't me, JS, or my block target for tonight. giving us a 2/3 chance of lynching right (if JS is town, even if we don't know it, it's still 2/3).

now, before we hammer... should I divulge who I'm blocking tonight or not?

I'm going to say no only because if JS is scum, they make the trade tonight (assuming I block wrong) and it doesn't matter (since if I announce who I block they'll just die the night after to avoid a conftown in lylo).

if JS is town I'll still be alive tomorrow.

just not sure if I want to WIFOM the scumz or not.

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eh I guess it depends on what Ank flips, too.

I think I'll keep it secret.

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Feel like hammering?

And who do

you

think I should roleblock?

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so it's 6:1.

my current strategy for the rest of the game:

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btw I submitted a no-block last night to see if scum would gambit/frame Jacob.

looks like it worked.

discuss.

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6:1, we mislynch today, 5:1. it either goes to 5:1 or 4:1 tomorrow depending on gambiting or blocking correctly.

if it goes to 4:1, we lynch Jacob. 3:1 if he's town and if I block wrong it's a 2:1 LYLO.
if it goes to 5:1, we don't lynch Jacob. mislynch and it's 4:1. goes to either 4:1 or 3:1 depending on etc.
--- if it goes to 4:1 we lynch Jacob, as said above.
--- if it's 3:1 I think we still lynch Jacob and I attempt to block correctly if he's town.

if we lynch Jacob today and he flips town, I die tonight if I block wrong and it's 4:1 with no confirmed town. if you guys are fine with this idea, I am too. I've already been useful by helping lynch ETL and catching Ank. would like everyone's opinion though.

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I'd rather go for an Eagle lynch between the two; I may have 'cleared' Eagle off their and ETL's voting patterns, but I'm much more confident ns is town, but just bad.

I think my preference goes: Eagle > Hiraki > Aldusk > ns > Sakura (since we're not lynching Jacob or me).


Votes for lynching JS today: ---
Votes against lynching JS today: Alduskkel
Not Voting: DEagle, notscience, Sakura, Hiraki

(not counting self due to indifference and obv not counting JS here)

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Hiraki's placement is only that high, btw, not because he's scum but because he's the most likely to fuck up if I die.

Aldusk I'm

pretty

sure is town too but I keep having doubts unlike with ns, and Sakura is obvtown.

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Vote: Alduskkel

Join me amigos

stop tunneling goddammit.

vote Eagle

leaving this here till we get more relevant discussion about... anything. also I take it no one wants to lynch Jacob today and risk the unconfirmed 4-1, which is fine. he dies tomorrow though.

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otherwise the traitor was recruited and/or is doing no kill gambit.

then scum either recruited the traitor or took daytalk.

they did not recruit the traitor, there was a no-kill the night I roleblocked Brian/our tracker (the night after ETL was lynched)

holy shit.

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I can guarantee a win if we follow my plan today btw. we know scum gambited last night, making me lean towards JS as the traitor/scum, since we're eventually lynching him anyway it doesn't really matter.

we lynch someone (say Eagle) and go to 5:1 if we're wrong, I block tonight. if there's a kill, 4:1 + confirmed town, we lynch JS, if he's town I die, 2:1 with a confirmed town, 50% win chance. if there's no kill tonight after I block, we lynch JS. 4:1 going into night, if I block right we get an extra lynch (probably a win unless scum nokilled but we're lynching who I blocked anyway), 2:1 lylo if I block wrong again.

we just probably don't lynch JS

today

because if I'm wrong we're at a 4:1 with no confirmed town. which I'm relatively fine with personally, but it's not the optimal move.

just sheep me and we can get to endgame fairly quickly. there's no need to put this off until we get the extra lynch + JS lynch out of the way, THEN if we don't win by then it's fine to drag things out. scum aren't killing anyone except me anyway, so everyone minus today's lynch, JS and myself will have plenty of time to talk.

[edit] Yes, Sakura, I know that... the traitor gets auto-recruited once he's the last scum alive, but we know he was never recruited in the first place because I roleblocked a tracker and there's no other logical way to explain the no-kill that night. seriously.
[edit2] yes Aldusk, I believe I said that about two gamedays ago in one of my rants to ns I believe ("either JS is scum or they took daytalk" or something)

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c'mon guys, the mechanics aren't that hard, please try and keep up.

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Confirming someone as town last night didn't matter because they would be dead by lylo anyway. JS scum can't kill me and JS town has my back. No risk, gives us more info.

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yuuuuuup

so do we wanna just bumlynch someone and get the JS lynch out of the way or

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ns if you vote Eagle I'll not confirm you as town

Aldusk if you go back to voting Eagle I'll do absolutely nothing

sound good? good

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asdfgh

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then let's either lynch Hiraki for tunneling Aldusk or Aldusk for tunneling ns

something something optimal lylo conditions.

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Sakura's always an option but she at least listens to reasons even if I don't agree with her playstyle.

[pedit] ok.

unvote

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this is the dumbest thing ever.

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I'd actually be defending him right now if it wouldn't drop my IQ a few points to do so

that's the level of dumb this argument is at.

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>Aldusk wants to lynch NS, as he's been saying
>he asks if there's support for a lynch
>NS sarcastically responds saying he supports a NS lynch
>Aldusk votes NS

like srsly.

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... you know what I meant shut up.

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well, we're not lynching me or Jacob or Sakura. or Hiraki (despite him being bad he's bleeding town). so it's between DE, Aldusk and ns.

ns being the scum that's no-killing and then saying he wants to be lynched is practically playing against his win condition.
Aldusk is probably not scum although he keeps making me paranoid.

which leaves Eagle and I can't think of anything off the top of my head that makes him overly townie.

Aldusk do you really think posts like 860/863 and especially the second part of 867, are scumposts?

also:

I mean, this is really silly because the question is essentially, "Of all these people who are probably town, who is scum? Please ignore that scummy guy over there, you can't lynch him yet."

yeah this is really bugging me

I mean we

can

lynch JS and just hope to god scum were stupid and did NOT try and kill the claimed bodyguard after ETL died, instead hit the traitor, oh and they picked a daytalk upgrade.

I am perfectly fine with dying tonight if I'm wrong, and I

think

once we have all this confirmation/optimal play strategy out of the way (which is kinda clouding

my

judgement at least), you guys can scumhunt your way to a win.

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I'm just going to do this:

vote JacobSavage

and I'll be back tomorrow evening.

Occam's Razor. Scum picking daytalk

and

killing not-JS the night after a JOAT lynch, after they probably used the strongman ability already the night prior, seems like bad play, or at least very unlikely. I'm done trying this optimal play bullshit.

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Why would you be voting me? Even if I wasn't confirmed town, I'm dead tonight if JS is a BG.

Also... hmm...

@Mod:

what's your ruling with regards to Happily Ever After scenarios? What number of lynches/no lynches have to occur for this to be enforced? Also, does this apply only to

intentional

no lynching and no killing?

Hiraki: maybe because I did not submit a block last night, so we know scum are no-killing?

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Did you seriously think I was lying?

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I'm not staying true to my 'don't come back to the thread until tomorrow' sentiment...

But yeah, like I thought I said earlier... if I RB'd someone, and claimed it today, it would just cause confusion/arguments that lead nowhere. If there

was

a kill last night, woo, I woulda confirmed someone as town but we'd probably lynch JS today in that case due to not having an extra lynch to optimize and they'd die by LYLO. By not blocking, it tells me/us that scum aren't killing, which is a far more telling result.

I actually still think lynching JS today is fine, however, I will still hammer an Eagle wagon. At least once the mod gets back to me on the HEA scenario.

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swear to God, this game...

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pretty much

I'm actually fine with lynching him tomorrow or the day before lylo though tbh. 6:1 to 5:1, no kill tonight, to 4:1, no kill that night, to 3:1. lynch JS, if he's town it's 2:1 and I have a 50/50 shot at blocking right.

Or even

today

but hey, you guys apparently can't be trusted to win at a 4:1.

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I mean c'mon, we get the paranoia out of the way if we're wrong, AND you guys have two chances to lynch right. and nightkills to analyze and whatnot...

also,

again

, scum hit traitor night 2, the night after ETL died, where it was optimal to kill the claimed BG, and for JS to be town scum needed to pick daytalk with only ETL/Ankamius using that... but y'know. whatevs

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I want either Eagle or JS lynched today. Not going on any other wagon.

Aldusk wagon is bad on the sole reason that Hiraki is leading the charge and DE is bad for joining it.

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The

five other townies

need to get in here and start posting more because this is getting ridiculous.

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unvote, vote: Eagle

I blocked him last night,

christ

you guys are thick.

Now to see if this is a win or if JS is the traitor.

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BEST ROLEBLOCKER EVER

AWW YISS

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(re: best roleblocker, ignore the Brian lynch, sorry buddy)

Aldusk: After claiming I did not block, I never specifically said I was lying. Made sure to word my answers to Hiraki carefully. I did this because, had Eagle been scum he would have known I was lying and I thought I'd try and catch him.

Had we lynched JS and he flipped town, I would have just blocked Eagle the next night and claimed it the next day.
Had we lynched Eagle and he flipped town, I'd know for sure scum was no-killing.

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and yeah, I've gotten my revenge of sorts for Bawhston Brawl. now to win a game opposite alignment from Hoopla.

yabbaguy still one of the best mods I've played under. /pre-in for the uPick you talked about in the deadthread.

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wait nvm pieguy said that.

...

/prein for pieguy

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48 hour prods is fine.

Of course, I learned how to play mafia on a site where we had 48 hour days and 24 hour nights, so I'm always biased about these things.

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Hi, IP, that was torture, you should have just said that you blocked us.

:3