NY 164: Maniacal Street Mafia (Anticlimatically finished.)

[mastin2]

Bulbazak is at L-1!

One-Hundred-Seventy-Fourth Votecount

:

(Twelvth Votecount of Day Seven,

AKA, the "F!" votecount.

)

Bulbazak - 3 (penguin_alien, MS Marangal, Nachomamma8)

Nachomamma8 - 2 (Bulbazak, PeregrineV)

Not Voting - 1 (ffullisade)

With

6

alive, it's

4

to lynch.

Day Seven's deadline is Monday, September 30th, @ 12:30 PM PST, which is in (expired on 2013-09-30 12:30:00).

Spoiler: Changes from last votecount

Bulbazak - 3 (penguin_alien, MS Marangal,

Nachomamma8

)
Nachomamma8 - 2 (Bulbazak, PeregrineV)
penguin_alien - 0 (

Nachomamma8

)

Not Voting - 1 (ffullisade)

Last votecount was page 250, post 6232.

Spoiler: Player Vote History D7

Nachomamma8: Amethyst Kitty->penguin_alien->Bulbazak
PeregrineV: Nachomamma8
Bulbazak: Nachomamma8
penguin_alien: Bulbazak
MS Marangal: Nachomamma8->Unvote->Bulbazak
ffullisade: Amethyst Kitty->Unvote->Amethyst Kitty->Unvote->Nachomamma8->Unvote

Spoiler: Vote History D7

On Mon, Sep 9/09/13 @ 10:43p,

ffullisade

Votes

Amethyst Kitty

in post 5996.
On Wed, Sep 9/11/13 @ 00:24a,

ffullisade

Unvotes

Amethyst Kitty

in post 6005.
On Wed, Sep 9/11/13 @ 03:27p,

Nachomamma8

votes

Amethyst Kitty

in post 6025.
On Mon, Sep 9/16/13 @ 02:24p,

ffullisade

Votes

Amethyst Kitty

in post 6042.
On Tue, Sep 9/17/13 @ 00:18a,

ffullisade

unvotes

Amethyst Kitty

in post 6068.
On Wed, Sep 9/18/13 @ 02:22a,

Nachomamma8

votes

penguin_alien

in post 6091.
On Wed, Sep 9/18/13 @ 10:11a,

ffullisade

votes

Nachomamma8

in post 6093.
On Wed, Sep 9/18/13 @ 05:41p,

ffullisade

unvotes

Nachomamma8

in post 6105.
On Wed, Sep 9/18/13 @ 08:06p,

MS Marangal

Votes

Nachomamma8

in post 6120.
On Wed, Sep 9/18/13 @ 08:10p,

Bulbazak

votes

Nachomamma8

in post 6122.
On Wed, Sep 9/18/13 @ 08:17p,

penguin_alien

Votes

Bulbazak

in post 6123.
On Thu, Sep 9/19/13 @ 11:37p,

MS Marangal

Unvotes

Nachomamma8

in post 6153.
On Sun, Sep 9/22/13 @ 07:59a,

MS Marangal

Votes

Bulbazak

in post 6183.
On Thu, Sep 9/26/13 @ 12:00p,

PeregrineV

votes

Nachomamma8

in post 6217.
On Fri, Sep 9/27/13 @ 00:03a,

Nachomamma8

votes

Bulbazak

in post 6239.

[Bulbazak]

This is in my ISO. But again, ThAd-Vig says he's shooting blue CTD. He instead uses a shot that is absorbed by protection on you. That same night, Rena says she is blocked. WHY would blue scum risk losing half their remaining team to ThAd's shot if they could prevent it? Why not block him and NK Rena if they thought she might witness the block?

Then, when ThAd's claimed actions the next day indicate he might shoot unpredictably, then he's blocked. So:

--A blue RB would have blocked him the third (first) night
--A town RB wouldn't have blocked him at all, or blocked Rena
--A red roleblocker...yeah, it fits. Even if we pretend you're not red, it's obvious that the roleblocker was happy to let the vig shoot when they thought he was pledged to hit someone the knew about and wasn't them, not so much when they couldn't predict his shot.

I've laid this out more than once now. Please don't pretend like I'm taking flights of fancy here.

Yeah, I have a response to this spec in my ISO too:

Maybe you thought that ThAd wouldn't shoot CTD after everything that happened. Maybe you thought CTD would be protected, since I was pushing for that. How am I supposed to know? I'm more curious about why Rena was blocked, since that would suggest a ThAd kill, but yet ThAd was left alive.

Again, it's WIFOM, just like your other points. Balance-wise it doesn't make sense for red team to have 3PRs, and strong ones at that, while the blue team only has 2.

Ffullisade, you are not addressing any of my posts to you. I'd like you to rectify that please.

I've intentionally not followed up on one post addressed to me. I don't recall anything else you posted to me recently.

Which post are you intentionally not following up? The ones I'd like you to answer or address are these:

I think bulba's a role blocker. I think PA knows it. because of her team - maybe her - getting blocked last night.

Where nacho fits in is less clear to me. But if I'm right about bulba role blocking and Nacho is right about 1 red scum, assuming we mislynch town today, then one townie will die tonight and tomorrow will be 2-1-1. And the game is unwinnable for town even if we lynch scum tomorrow.

If there are 2 reds, then it's possible that it will be a scum who dies tonight and then it will still be 2-1-1 tomorrow and unwinnable unless they shoot each other tonight. And if there is a roleblock two shots won't happen.

If we have 1 red, then Nacho probably isn't it.

I feel like we have to lynch between bulba and PA today and hope for the best.

PA's vote on bulba supports this scenario, I think.

Um...what? I think I got lost somewhere in the middle. Can you break this down for me in simpler terms?

Where did the post stop making sense?

I think I got lost somewhere around the second paragraph. Can you rephrase your post?

Did you ever follow up on this:

I'll post what we're thinking tomorrow.

I remember waiting for your post and nothing coming. Was it just a simple "X is red and Y is blue", because I was expecting something bigger? Regardless, we're getting close to deadline and we really need to get this right and lynch red today, so I'd like to know your thoughts. You know mine.

[ffullisade]

Ffullisade, you are not addressing any of my posts to you. I'd like you to rectify that please.

I've intentionally not followed up on one post addressed to me. I don't recall anything else you posted to me recently.

Which post are you intentionally not following up? The ones I'd like you to answer or address are these:

I think bulba's a role blocker. I think PA knows it. because of her team - maybe her - getting blocked last night.

Where nacho fits in is less clear to me. But if I'm right about bulba role blocking and Nacho is right about 1 red scum, assuming we mislynch town today, then one townie will die tonight and tomorrow will be 2-1-1. And the game is unwinnable for town even if we lynch scum tomorrow.

If there are 2 reds, then it's possible that it will be a scum who dies tonight and then it will still be 2-1-1 tomorrow and unwinnable unless they shoot each other tonight. And if there is a roleblock two shots won't happen.

If we have 1 red, then Nacho probably isn't it.

I feel like we have to lynch between bulba and PA today and hope for the best.

PA's vote on bulba supports this scenario, I think.

Um...what? I think I got lost somewhere in the middle. Can you break this down for me in simpler terms?

Where did the post stop making sense?

I think I got lost somewhere around the second paragraph. Can you rephrase your post?

That's what I decided not to follow up. It's obsolete based on what I think is an improved understanding of how the game could be balanced. I see nothing but walls ahead and I'm not interested in helping produce another huge ball of tangled semantic yarn.

Did you ever follow up on this:

I'll post what we're thinking tomorrow.

Did I? Seriously?

My next post was a complete shake-up of my stance on the game state, and everything I've posted since then has been informed by that shake up.

I remember waiting for your post and nothing coming. Was it just a simple "X is red and Y is blue", because I was expecting something bigger? Regardless, we're getting close to deadline and we really need to get this right and lynch red today, so I'd like to know your thoughts. You know mine.

I'm speechless.

[Nachomamma8]

I'd like to know your thoughts. You know mine.

bulba i can't believe i ever saved you

[Bulbazak]

Did you ever follow up on this:

I'll post what we're thinking tomorrow.

Did I? Seriously?

My next post was a complete shake-up of my stance on the game state, and everything I've posted since then has been informed by that shake up.

I remember waiting for your post and nothing coming. Was it just a simple "X is red and Y is blue", because I was expecting something bigger? Regardless, we're getting close to deadline and we really need to get this right and lynch red today, so I'd like to know your thoughts. You know mine.

I'm speechless.

I guess I was expecting something a little bit more in-depth thought-wise. I was expecting you to give a breakdown of what your thought process was, why you had X or Y as scum, etc., all of which would be helpful since we are in Mylo. And yes, I'll continue to believe that we ARE in Mylo without any evidence to the contrary. That's why I believe it's very important to lynch red scum, because I'd rather not rely on crosskills to do that for us. As of right now, I still don't quite understand your reasoning behind your reads, except that Nacho is town because he's thinking what you are which is A.) Not a town tell (especially not in Mylo/Lylo) and B.) easily faked if said player has any experience (As I said, I could have faked that, and Nacho is better than I am.). You can roll your eyes or do what you want to, but this is not the time to be opaque. Now I've shared my thoughts and reads on the game state and have actually stated reasons for them, and, surprise surprise, all of the scum are on my wagon. We have less then 24 hrs. to lynch red, and I would like you to at least try to help us find and lynch red scum today. If you can't do that, then you can always hammer me and hope for the cross kills.

I'd like to know your thoughts. You know mine.

bulba i can't believe i ever saved you

But wasn't this the entire point? To save me for the final mislynch?

[Ms Marangal]

But wasn't this the entire point? To save me for the final mislynch?

....

[Nachomamma8]

yup. i bussed my mafia doctor partner and took a hard bulbazak-town stance so i didn't have to win the game earlier.

[Bulbazak]

Or it was a choice between Slandaar and myself, and you chose to lynch Slandaar so you wouldn't have to face him later in the game.

[Bulbazak]

Also, let me remind you that you did not immediately bus Seanald. You pushed Rena as hard as you could and only voted Seanald after the Rena wagon lost traction and the Seanald lynch was inevitable.

[Nachomamma8]

oh ok

[Nachomamma8]

got anything convincing?

[Bulbazak]

Convincing of what?

[Nachomamma8]

anything, really.

[Bulbazak]

Why am I supposed to convince you? You're scum.

[Nachomamma8]

not me, anyone else.
friendly advice and all!

[Bulbazak]

I'd like to hear from Ffullisade before I go to bed within the next few hours. There's no guarantee that I'll be around before deadline, and I want to talk things out. I also wouldn't mind talking to PV as well. We really need to discuss what we're going to do, because red team essentially has this day in a stranglehold.

[penguin_alien]

UNVOTE: Bulbazak

For now. I'll be around in the morning, but I'm wavering a bit here. It is true that even if Seanald wouldn't have been that day's lynch without Nacho turning the wagon, but as a claimed neighbor his days were likely numbered.

Bulbazak and PV, if Nacho is red scum, what's his motive for floating a theory and apparently standing behind it that red scum is a three-man team and so is down to one member? He's not using it as an excuse to hunt blue scum instead of red from what I can tell.

[PeregrineV]

I'd like to hear from Ffullisade before I go to bed within the next few hours. There's no guarantee that I'll be around before deadline, and I want to talk things out. I also wouldn't mind talking to PV as well. We really need to discuss what we're going to do, because red team essentially has this day in a stranglehold.

You need 2 of Ffullisade, Mara and penguin to vote Nacho instead of you.

3:2:1

If you flip town, scum need to crosskill for town to win (it will be 2:1 lylo).
If they don't, red wins, or 1:1:1 (see bottom).

If you flip blue scum, we wake up with 2:2, and I'm pretty sure red takes it. Although, maybe if town jumps in and both votes redscum first, then lynch rules would lynch scum. But Nk would mean 1:1 last day. So pretty sure a red win.

If you flip red scum for some reason, then crosskills gives town a chance, or leaves town at 2:1(red or blue) or 1:1:1. In which case, I feel for Mastin, but hope he would give it to town if scum kill each other off.

[Bulbazak]

Bulbazak and PV, if Nacho is red scum, what's his motive for floating a theory and apparently standing behind it that red scum is a three-man team and so is down to one member? He's not using it as an excuse to hunt blue scum instead of red from what I can tell.

The motive would be for town to not believe they're in Mylo and thus become more lax in their decision making process. If successful, town's mindset would no longer be "We need to lynch red scum or we lose.", but would be "There's only 2 scum left and of different factions. It doesn't matter which one we hit, and if we mislynch, we still have another day." The difference is night and day. All Nacho has to do is get us to not lynch red scum, and his team essentially wins.

P-edit: Mara's not going to unvote. She's Nacho's partner. We need to convince PA to vote Nacho if we want any shot of winning.

[penguin_alien]

I'll sleep on it. And reread the logic in the morning. I'm also not sure why scum-Nacho wouldn't have tried to mislynch me Day One when I replaced in. Granted, that's a personal perspective, but he knows I'm not a hard lynch. Although I may have answered my own question in that thought, as I do make good lynch bait.

Now I'm really going to bed.

[PeregrineV]

UNVOTE: Bulbazak

For now. I'll be around in the morning, but I'm wavering a bit here. It is true that even if Seanald wouldn't have been that day's lynch without Nacho turning the wagon, but as a claimed neighbor his days were likely numbered.

Bulbazak and PV, if Nacho is red scum, what's his motive for floating a theory and apparently standing behind it that red scum is a three-man team and so is down to one member? He's not using it as an excuse to hunt blue scum instead of red from what I can tell.

When it starts coming down to math, you want town to miscalculate.

But, if Nacho is not redscum, then who is?

One of the things I never shook was this set of exchanges, especially after Ceph flipped redscum.

Since LOL Mafia just finished, and it featured a scumteam of Cephrir and Nachomamma, I would like to hear a detailed analysis by each of them on the other person, especially comparing their play here to their scum play in LoL.

Since LOL Mafia just finished, and it featured a scumteam of Cephrir and Nachomamma, I would like to hear a detailed analysis by each of them on the other person, especially comparing their play here to their scum play in LoL.

I can probably do that at some point. Honestly, I've thought this whole game that part of the reason Nacho's townreading me when most people aren't is because I'm playing totally differently (and worse) from that game.

I can probably do that at some point. Honestly, I've thought this whole game that part of the reason Nacho's townreading me when most people aren't is because I'm playing totally differently (and worse) from that game.

Yup. Your read changes in particular that game were opportunistic as hell, whereas here you end up waffling, you express being unsure a LOT more in thread, everything feels more natural here. But if PV wants to hear a "detailed analysis", then he's going to have to actually put some effort into the game.

Vote: Nacho

Why are you totally ignoring my request?

Vote: Nacho

Why are you totally ignoring my request?

I didn't. I'm not necessarily completely complying with it, but I didn't ignore it.

I didn't. I'm not necessarily completely complying with it, but I didn't ignore it.

Based on 3746, you think Cephrir is town?

Yup. Your read changes in particular that game were opportunistic as hell, whereas here you end up waffling, you express being unsure a LOT more in thread, everything feels more natural here. But if PV wants to hear a "detailed analysis", then he's going to have to actually put some effort into the game.

Because I was looking for something a little more comprehensive, like

tl;dr When Arc is town, she OMGUSes hard because she's used to scum attacking her for so long. She will also pick out people who have been easy targets, people who she feels like she can defend, and she will defend them from a position of authority (since she knows certain people will read her as town and she can hammer the hell out of them if they attack her). She's lighter as town because it's what she excels at, hence the occasional teasing with the people she interacts with. Her stronger, more aggressive posts are the ones she makes from that position of authority; she doesn't have it as scum and that's her strongest meta point.

Because I was looking for something a little more comprehensive, like

I'm not that familiar with Cephrir's meta.

Find me something stronger that says REDSCUM and we'll talk about moving my vote.

[Bulbazak]

I was hoping to stay up a little longer, but my body is disagreeing with me. I hope to be able to get back on before deadline, but if not, I've really said all I can.

[ffullisade]

UNVOTE: Bulbazak

For now. I'll be around in the morning, but I'm wavering a bit here. It is true that even if Seanald wouldn't have been that day's lynch without Nacho turning the wagon, but as a claimed neighbor his days were likely numbered.

Bulbazak and PV, if Nacho is red scum, what's his motive for floating a theory and apparently standing behind it that red scum is a three-man team and so is down to one member? He's not using it as an excuse to hunt blue scum instead of red from what I can tell.

When it starts coming down to math, you want town to miscalculate.

But, if Nacho is not redscum, then who is?

One of the things I never shook was this set of exchanges, especially after Ceph flipped redscum.

Since LOL Mafia just finished, and it featured a scumteam of Cephrir and Nachomamma, I would like to hear a detailed analysis by each of them on the other person, especially comparing their play here to their scum play in LoL.

Since LOL Mafia just finished, and it featured a scumteam of Cephrir and Nachomamma, I would like to hear a detailed analysis by each of them on the other person, especially comparing their play here to their scum play in LoL.

I can probably do that at some point. Honestly, I've thought this whole game that part of the reason Nacho's townreading me when most people aren't is because I'm playing totally differently (and worse) from that game.

I can probably do that at some point. Honestly, I've thought this whole game that part of the reason Nacho's townreading me when most people aren't is because I'm playing totally differently (and worse) from that game.

Yup. Your read changes in particular that game were opportunistic as hell, whereas here you end up waffling, you express being unsure a LOT more in thread, everything feels more natural here. But if PV wants to hear a "detailed analysis", then he's going to have to actually put some effort into the game.

Vote: Nacho

Why are you totally ignoring my request?

Vote: Nacho

Why are you totally ignoring my request?

I didn't. I'm not necessarily completely complying with it, but I didn't ignore it.

I didn't. I'm not necessarily completely complying with it, but I didn't ignore it.

Based on 3746, you think Cephrir is town?

Yup. Your read changes in particular that game were opportunistic as hell, whereas here you end up waffling, you express being unsure a LOT more in thread, everything feels more natural here. But if PV wants to hear a "detailed analysis", then he's going to have to actually put some effort into the game.

Because I was looking for something a little more comprehensive, like

tl;dr When Arc is town, she OMGUSes hard because she's used to scum attacking her for so long. She will also pick out people who have been easy targets, people who she feels like she can defend, and she will defend them from a position of authority (since she knows certain people will read her as town and she can hammer the hell out of them if they attack her). She's lighter as town because it's what she excels at, hence the occasional teasing with the people she interacts with. Her stronger, more aggressive posts are the ones she makes from that position of authority; she doesn't have it as scum and that's her strongest meta point.

Because I was looking for something a little more comprehensive, like

I'm not that familiar with Cephrir's meta.

Find me something stronger that says REDSCUM and we'll talk about moving my vote.

Nacho?

[penguin_alien]

Head says Bulbazak, gut says Nacho. My head always leads me astray.

VOTE: Nacho

[Nachomamma8]

HA