NY 164: Maniacal Street Mafia (Anticlimatically finished.)

[mastin2]

Human Destroyer is at L-2!

One-Hundred-Fifty-Second Votecount

:

(Tenth Votecount of Day Five,

AKA, the "Mastin's goin' downhill." votecount.

)

Human Destroyer - 5 (Nachomamma8, ffullisade, Cephrir, Desperado, Baezu)

PeregrineV - 3 (CrashTextDummie, Amethyst Kitty, ThAdmiral)

Baezu - 2 (penguin_alien, Human Destroyer)
CrashTextDummie - 1 (Bulbazak)
ThAdmiral - 1 (PeregrineV)

All votes are in play.

With

12

alive, it is

7

to lynch.

Day Five's deadline is Thursday, August 22nd, @ 12:30 PM PST, which is in (expired on 2013-08-22 12:30:00).

If deadline were to hit now,

Human Destroyer

would be lynched.

Spoiler: Changes from last votecount

PeregrineV - 3 (CrashTextDummie, Amethyst Kitty, ThAdmiral,

Baezu

)
Amethyst Kitty - 0 (

Desperado

,

Cephrir

)
Baezu - 2 (penguin_alien, Human Destroyer)
Human Destroyer - 5 (Nachomamma8, ffullisade,

Cephrir

,

Desperado

,

Baezu

)
CrashTextDummie - 1 (Bulbazak)
ThAdmiral - 1 (PeregrineV)

Last votecount was page 229, post 5700.

Spoiler: Player Vote History D4

CrashTextDummie: Bulbazak->PeregrineV
Cephrir: Amethyst Kitty->Human Destroyer
Nachomamma8: PeregrineV->Human Destroyer
PeregrineV: Amethyst Kitty->ThAdmiral
Baezu: Amethysty Kitty->PeregrineV->ThAdmiral->PeregrineV->Human Destroyer
Bulbazak: CrashTextDummie
Desperado: Amethyst Kitty->Human Destroyer
penguin_alien: Human Destroyer->Baezu
ThAdmiral: PeregrineV
Amethyst Kitty: penguin_alien->Unvote->PeregrineV
ffullisade: Baezu->Unvote->ThAdmiral->PeregrineV->Unvote->Human Destroyer
Human Destroyer: ThAdmiral->Baezu

Spoiler: Vote History D4

on Fri, Aug 8/02/13 @ 04:02p,

Desperado

votes

Amethyst Kitty

in post 5484.
On Fri, Aug 8/02/13 @ 04:19p,

PeregrineV

votes

Amethyst Kitty

in post 5485.
On Fri, Aug 8/02/13 @ 04:32p,

Baezu

votes

Amethyst Kitty

in post 5486.
On Fri, Aug 8/02/13 @ 05:10p,

Amethyst Kitty

votes

penguin_alien

in post 5488.
On Fri, Aug 8/02/13 @ 05:37p,

Bulbazak

votes

CrashTextDummie

in post 5490.
On Fri, Aug 8/02/13 @ 08:05p,

ffullisade

votes

Baezu

in post 5496.
On Sat, Aug 8/03/13 @ 09:49a,

Cephrir

votes

Amethyst Kitty

in post 5503.
On Sat, Aug 8/03/13 @ 06:30p,

CrashTextDummie

votes

Bulbazak

in post 5509.
On Sat, Aug 8/03/13 @ 08:32p,

Baezu

votes

PeregrineV

in post 5516.
On Mon, Aug 8/05/13 @ 00:32a,

Nachomamma8

votes

PeregrineV

in post 5519.
On Mon, Aug 8/05/13 @ 12:56p,

ffullisade

unvotes

Baezu

in post 5526.
On Mon, Aug 8/05/13 @ 01:10p,

Amethyst Kitty

unvotes

penguin_alien

in post 5527.
On Mon, Aug 8/05/13 @ 02:31p,

Human Destroyer

votes

ThAdmiral

in post 5529.
On Wed, Aug 8/07/13 @ 10:33a,

CrashTextDummie

unvotes

Bulbazak

and votes

PeregrineV

in post 5568.
On Wed, Aug 8/07/13 @ 12:49p,

Amethyst Kitty

votes

PeregrineV

in post 5571.
On Wed, Aug 8/07/13 @ 07:45p,

ffullisade

votes

ThAdmiral

in post 5587.
On Wed, Aug 8/07/13 @ 09:55p,

ffullisade

votes

PeregrineV

in post 5598.
On Thu, Aug 8/08/13 @ 00:45a,

ThAdmiral

votes

PeregrineV

in post 5610.
On Thu, Aug 8/08/13 @ 05:16p,

penguin_alien

votes

Human Destroyer

in post 5622.
On Thu, Aug 8/08/13 @ 08:39p,

ffullisade

unvotes

PeregrineV

in post 5627.
On Fri, Aug 8/09/13 @ 11:19p,

penguin_alien

unvotes

Human Destroyer

and votes

Baezu

in post 5642.
On Sat, Aug 8/10/13 @ 11:16a,

Baezu

votes

ThAdmiral

in post 5652.
On Mon, Aug 8/12/13 @ 09:49p,

Baezu

votes

PeregrineV

in post 5673.
On Tue, Aug 8/13/13 @ 03:21a,

Nachomamma8

votes

Human Destroyer

in post 5678.
On Tue, Aug 8/13/13 @ 08:51a,

Human Destroyer

unvotes

ThAdmiral

and votes

Baezu

in post 5679.
On Tue, Aug 8/13/13 @ 12:08p,

PeregrineV

votes

ThAdmiral

in post 5687.
On Tue, Aug 8/13/13 @ 05:38p,

ffullisade

votes

Human Destroyer

in post 5694.
On Wed, Aug 8/14/13 @ 04:44p,

Cephrir

votes

Human Destroyer

in post 5706.
On Wed, Aug 8/14/13 @ 05:10p,

Desperado

unvotes

Amethyst Kitty

and votes

Human Destroyer

in post 5707.
On Wed, Aug 8/14/13 @ 11:59p,

Baezu

votes

Human Destroyer

in post 5717.

[Bulbazak]

Desp, why does a person not going to be lynched matter? if Bulb thinks Pv is scum, and he wants to explain why then I don't see a problem with it

I don't think PV is scum. PoE tells me that CTD is likely the last blue scum, and I'm trying to understand the PV-scum case, because personally, I'm not seeing it.

[Human Destroyer]

just got a "Surprise vacation!"

technically v/la till sunday, should be able to do stuff by later tomorrow though

<<< Noted. >>>

[ThAdmiral]

There's almost certainly 1 scum among the three of you. There are between 2 and 4 scum among everyone else. If the number is 3 or 4, we're actually better off not lynching a neighbor.

If there are 2 though, we'd probably be getting the last blue scum by lynching a neighbor AND have a higher probability of hitting.

Meh.

Oh wait, it's a push if there are 3. Still, given that I'm reasonably certain all the scum are in pv/thad/baezu/hd/ak, I'm not that worried about it.

But from my perspective, since I know I'm town, its a 50/50.

[Bulbazak]

What do you think of my PoE?

[Nachomamma8]

But from my perspective, since I know I'm town, its a 50/50.

so why PV?

[penguin_alien]

UNVOTE: Baezu

Still not seeing town there, but there will likely be time to sort it out later.

Lynching within the neighborhoods is at least a group where we're super-likely to find a blue scum, possibly the last one. The earlier PV wagon didn't seem focused on actually finding scum so much as trying to push the first easy neighborhood lynch. I don't see Desperado pushing his neighbor like he did as scum, as it leaves him more exposed. To a lesser extent I see this with CTD having outed the neighborhoods in the first place, especially if he was blue; his first move after having a teammate NK'd wouldn't have been to set something in motion to lower his own game life expectancy.

That leaves PV-ThAd. I'm not seeing PV as blue scum here for reasons I outlined in an earlier post. ThAd would thus be my hands down choice aside from his vig claim. Bulbazak, why does your PoE get you CTD instead of ThAd?

[Bulbazak]

Bulbazak, why does your PoE get you CTD instead of ThAd?

Desperado is essentially conf. town, since I don't see the only neighborhood scum from both teams being in a neighborhood together. ThAd has claimed vig., and I believe him, since I can't see scum acting the way he has. The "I don't give a crap" attitude is more indicative of town in this instance than scum, as I would think scum in his position would be more compliant with the town. That leaves PV and CTD. As I've said before, I can't see one scum team being given such a huge advantage over the other, which is what being paired with a vig. would be. Anybody who wants to explain PV-scum to me needs to explain that. Plus, I just like the idea of 1 killer per neighborhood representing each team (both scumteams + town). That leaves CTD. I'm even more confident in this given CTD's actions yesterday concerning my wagon. He was really trying to push it through as quickly as possible. He probably knew that once I died, my line of inquiry died with me, and as today has shown, even with acknowledgment that scum is likely in the neighborhoods, the majority of the town wants to hunt elsewhere.

[ThAdmiral]

What do you think of my PoE?

My gut tells me you're right. But my liver and both of my kidneys are trying to tell me that pv is the scum. I don't know who to believe!

But from my perspective, since I know I'm town, its a 50/50.

so why PV?

See above.

Btw my lungs are split on the issue.

[CrashTextDummie]

Had two huge exams this week (and a couple last week), the same exams whose preparation have kept my time rather limited for the past 3 months, and I really should have announced V/LA this time. My apologies to all the players and the mod. Needless to say, i kind of lost touch with this game.

I'm even more confident in this given CTD's actions yesterday concerning my wagon. He was really trying to push it through as quickly as possible. He probably knew that once I died, my line of inquiry died with me, and as today has shown, even with acknowledgment that scum is likely in the neighborhoods, the majority of the town wants to hunt elsewhere.

This is basically the same argument that "I was desperately holding on despite being countered" which I have already refuted. It wasn't my intention in my last post to get you to restate your whole sermon, as indeed you've said it a million times already. I was demonstrating that I wasn't countered at all. To recap, your excuse for everything is that you have weird game theory stances. That is

my opinion

. Even if I didn't think they were weird, I'd find it suspicious that they just so happen to align to get you to push town lynches and avoid scum lynches.

Your new spin on things is that I tried to "push your lynch through quickly", which is a complete fabrication. First, what you're suggesting doesn't make a whole lot of sense, because people not buying into your theory with you alive shows that there would have been no pressing need for hypo-scum me to get rid of you. Secondly, people strongly push for their suspect's lynch all the time, and you interpreting this as me wanting to lynch you quickly is nothing more than you arbitrarily projecting your case onto my play. Case in point: You don't suspect Nacho for "quickly wanting to lynch" Rena, despite the fact that her being lynched would have 100% benefited scum. Thirdly, and this is the main problem with this whole line of reasoning, I actually

had

a reason to be "desperate", if that's what you want to call it, because I very strongly felt that Rena shouldn't be lynched, and being on your wagon and making sure it stayed ahead of hers was the only way I had of preventing that.

The only thing that's left of your case on me is the "stalling on giving reads" accusation, because quite frankly I don't remember the details of what was going on enough to refute it further. I don't believe for a second that much of what you've accused me of are actually reasons you suspect me, because it's all interpretive (and in most cases actively blocking out the very obvious pro-town motivation behind my actions). You are twisting my actions to fit your read, and that's what scum does.

---------------

This current HD wagon is almost an exact repeat of yesterday's Rena wagon. Minus PV, it has all same people as in that vote count I quoted, and as previously mentioned, I strongly suspect that there's scum in that group. On the other hand, it's also a repeat of yesterday's Seanald wagon, with Nacho leading and a whole bunch of people sheeping in quick succession, and that resulted in a scum lynch, so meh. The actual case looks decent enough.

I just told you why. Because math. Although I did realize partway through that I was probably wrong and it depends on how many scum are left.

Also, the neighbor scum is probably blue and probably doesn't have a partner, so... nice try?

That last statement depends on how many scum are left just as much as everything else so I'm not sure why you'd make it.

I have some more stuff to address, but I have to run.

[Nachomamma8]

@Nacho: You still haven't answered my questions.

I've been thinking about them. Generally I find more scum in multiball than normal since crosskills, but that might be an incorrect assumption. I don't think PV is scum, but I also don't really think that it makes sense for a random vig to be tossed into the neighborhood. We're probably lacking on power roles at this point, so why is a vig given the benefit of a townie he can talk to while every other power role is completely isolated?

considering he was less then active when he was playing with me then I'm not really inclined to vote him based on activity level

I'm pretty confident that I'm not voting him for activity level. Why are you interpreting things differently?

The "I don't give a crap" attitude is more indicative of town in this instance than scum, as I would think scum in his position would be more compliant with the town.

In the end, I think that town is more likely to do something for the town ESPECIALLY if he had a strong read on his neighbor being scum and especially if he was continually getting roleblocked. He's been a useless sack of shit for a while now and I'm not so confident I'm more willing to believe that town would put us through this before scum would.

[Cephrir]

V/LA through and including the 18th. But I'll be able to check in tomorrow around (3 hours from this post) o'clock.

<<< Noted. >>>

[PeregrineV]

prod or poke received, but back later.

<<< Please make that 'back later' be today, and not Monday. >>>

[Baezu]

If people are unsure about pv vs thad let's vote outside of those two tonight and maybe things will become clearer tomorrow

[mastin2]

<<< ffullisade has been prodded. >>>

[ThAdmiral]

Bulbazak, why does your PoE get you CTD instead of ThAd?

Desperado is essentially conf. town, since I don't see the only neighborhood scum from both teams being in a neighborhood together. ThAd has claimed vig., and I believe him, since I can't see scum acting the way he has. The "I don't give a crap" attitude is more indicative of town in this instance than scum, as I would think scum in his position would be more compliant with the town. That leaves PV and CTD. As I've said before, I can't see one scum team being given such a huge advantage over the other, which is what being paired with a vig. would be. Anybody who wants to explain PV-scum to me needs to explain that. Plus, I just like the idea of 1 killer per neighborhood representing each team (both scumteams + town). That leaves CTD. I'm even more confident in this given CTD's actions yesterday concerning my wagon. He was really trying to push it through as quickly as possible. He probably knew that once I died, my line of inquiry died with me, and as today has shown, even with acknowledgment that scum is likely in the neighborhoods, the majority of the town wants to hunt elsewhere.

This actually makes a lot of sense.

vote: ctd

[ffullisade]

In both of her town games, she looked unsure, hesitant, and kinda looking around for a direction to take. In her scum game she looked more confident. Compare the cases she made in her scum game to her cases in her town game. And to here.

It's like the difference between town you and scum you sometimes. Not as much *lately*, but.

hesitance as town is usually a sign that there's something seriously wrong with my reads.

Plus Bacde was incredibly fucking town how can you say anything else???

You can't.

[ffullisade]

UNVOTE: Baezu

Still not seeing town there, but there will likely be time to sort it out later.

Lynching within the neighborhoods is at least a group where we're super-likely to find a blue scum, possibly the last one. The earlier PV wagon didn't seem focused on actually finding scum so much as trying to push the first easy neighborhood lynch. I don't see Desperado pushing his neighbor like he did as scum, as it leaves him more exposed. To a lesser extent I see this with CTD having outed the neighborhoods in the first place, especially if he was blue; his first move after having a teammate NK'd wouldn't have been to set something in motion to lower his own game life expectancy.

That leaves PV-ThAd. I'm not seeing PV as blue scum here for reasons I outlined in an earlier post. ThAd would thus be my hands down choice aside from his vig claim. Bulbazak, why does your PoE get you CTD instead of ThAd?

Plus there was just the genuinely paranoid feel to CTD's post about his neighborhood after Syr's flip.

[ffullisade]

Bulbazak, why does your PoE get you CTD instead of ThAd?

Desperado is essentially conf. town, since I don't see the only neighborhood scum from both teams being in a neighborhood together. ThAd has claimed vig., and I believe him, since I can't see scum acting the way he has. The "I don't give a crap" attitude is more indicative of town in this instance than scum, as I would think scum in his position would be more compliant with the town. That leaves PV and CTD. As I've said before, I can't see one scum team being given

such a huge advantage

over the other, which is what being paired with a vig. would be. Anybody who wants to explain PV-scum to me needs to explain that. Plus, I just like the idea of 1 killer per neighborhood representing each team (both scumteams + town). That leaves CTD. I'm even more confident in this given CTD's actions yesterday concerning my wagon. He was really trying to push it through as quickly as possible. He probably knew that once I died, my line of inquiry died with me, and as today has shown, even with acknowledgment that scum is likely in the neighborhoods, the majority of the town wants to hunt elsewhere.

It's a huge swingy thing, and could be not advantageous at all depending on who wound up in the scum-neighbor and vig-neighbor slots. But, it's a point to think about.

Slandaar's flip was town vanilla neighbor.

Blue roles so far have been ninja and goon

red role was mafia doctor neighbor

I dunno. I don't think this takes PV out of the running for blue mafia neighbor.

[Baezu]

Could all three of PV, HD, and CTD be scum?

[Nachomamma8]

Could all three of PV, HD, and CTD be scum?

probably not.

[Amethyst Kitty]

I'm pretty sure you are Nacho, but I'm not entirely sure if I can buy your reasons for suspecting him and the best reason I can personally come up with is his lack of investment in this game

Between Thad, PV, and CTD, I feel that Pv is the most likely to flip scum. Thad, I'm pretty confident that he'll flip town at this point and CTD is still muddy waters for me

[Nachomamma8]

I'm pretty sure you are Nacho, but I'm not entirely sure if I can buy your reasons for suspecting him and the best reason I can personally come up with is his lack of investment in this game

sorry but you're going to have to rephrase this so I can understand you

[Nachomamma8]

why do you think HD is town?

[Amethyst Kitty]

You have reasons past him being somewhat inactive, reasons I'm not sure I can buy

My biggest reasons is his lack of involvement, and Apathy this game.

I don't particularly think HD is town, though I'm still not really seeing anything scummy in his Iso, and the Hydra dissonance when that slot

was

a Hydra is the kind of trolling I would expect Om and HD to do as town