NY 164: Maniacal Street Mafia (Anticlimatically finished.)

[Amethyst Kitty]

FFS

someone give me someone to sheep who isn't Nacho or Bulb or Nero or Ffery/mollie or Bacde

Mala is out of commission for a while so...

[Cephrir]

There are only 15 players left in the game and you want someone to sheep who isn't four of the most sheepable players and Nero for some reason?

Dunno if I can help you there, maybe try scumhunting?

[Cephrir]

Or you could sheep me~~~

That was a joke no one will ever do that

[Cephrir]

Nor, generally, should they

[Bulbazak]

There's a rigidity to your reads list that is kind of worrisome. When I saw your list first thing today after your case on Slaandar turned out so wrong I really wasn't sure what to make of it not changing much (if at all).

The list really isn't as rigid as you think. As you can see, there are degrees of reads, and they have fluctuated due to the information I have. People move up and down the list depending on new information gained from actual interaction and flips. For example, CTD moved down from the top of the town list after Slandaar's flip, which shows that I'm not as sure about him as I once was. Also, you've moved from being "scum" to "null/scum" based on what I've seen so far. I could explain each read and why they are where they are, but that'd be overkill, and I don't think anybody really wants that.

I'm not sure if "you" means "you the hydra" or "you fferyllt" re genuine emotion.

I tend to consider hydras as a whole, but I'm probably referring more to the Mollie head, as I think that yesterday's paranoia was coming from her.

[mastin2]

One-Hundred-Nineteenth Votecount

:

(First Votecount of Day Four,

AKA, the "Let's start the day real slow..." votecount.

)

Bulbazak - 2 (Human Destroyer, Nero Cain)
Nachomamma8 - 1 (Bacde)
Nero Cain - 1 (Bulbazak)
Rena - 1 (Cephrir)

Not Voting - 10 (CrashTextDummie, Nachomamma8, PeregrineV, Desperado, penguin_alien, Seanald, ThAdmiral, Rena, Amethyst Kitty, ffullisade)

With

15

alive, it's

8

to lynch.

Day Four's deadline is Wednesday, July 31st, @ 12:30 PM PST, which is in (expired on 2013-07-31 12:30:00).

Spoiler: Player Vote History D4

CrashTextDummie:
Cephrir: Rena
Nachomamma8:
PeregrineV:
Nero Cain: Bulbazak
Bacde: Nachomamma8
Bulbazak: Nero Cain
Desperado:
penguin_alien:
Slandaar:
Seanald:
ThAdmiral:
Rena:
Amethyst Kitty:
ffullisade:
Human Destroyer: Bulbazak

Spoiler: Votecount History D4

On Wed, Jul 7/10/13 @ 07:28a,

Human Destroyer

votes

Nachomamma8

in post 4831.
On Wed, Jul 7/10/13 @ 10:11a,

Nero Cain

votes

Bulbazak

in post 4832.
On Wed, Jul 7/10/13 @ 10:15a,

Bacde

votes

Nachomamma8

in post 4833.
On Wed, Jul 7/10/13 @ 02:24p,

Bulbazak

votes

Nero Cain

in post 4836.
On Wed, Jul 7/10/13 @ 02:33p,

Cephrir

votes

Rena

in post 4838.

[ffullisade]

There's a rigidity to your reads list that is kind of worrisome. When I saw your list first thing today after your case on Slaandar turned out so wrong I really wasn't sure what to make of it not changing much (if at all).

The list really isn't as rigid as you think. As you can see, there are degrees of reads, and they have fluctuated due to the information I have. People move up and down the list depending on new information gained from actual interaction and flips. For example, CTD moved down from the top of the town list after Slandaar's flip, which shows that I'm not as sure about him as I once was. Also, you've moved from being "scum" to "null/scum" based on what I've seen so far. I could explain each read and why they are where they are, but that'd be overkill, and I don't think anybody really wants that.

I'm not sure if "you" means "you the hydra" or "you fferyllt" re genuine emotion.

I tend to consider hydras as a whole, but I'm probably referring more to the Mollie head, as I think that yesterday's paranoia was coming from her.

Yeah, she was the one who really freaked about you and the last minute votes to flip the lynch onto Slaandar.

I was the one posting shouties at Nacho for bitching about the main wagons when it was too late to do anything about them.

Mollie is still pretty damn paranoid about you.

I'm not sure yet what I think.

[ffullisade]

FFS

someone give me someone to sheep who isn't Nacho or Bulb or Nero or Ffery/mollie or Bacde

Mala is out of commission for a while so...

Tell me how

I

have led you astray this game plz.

- f

[Bulbazak]

Mollie is still pretty damn paranoid about you.

I'm not sure yet what I think.

Which is funny, because normally you're the one who is paranoid about me.

[ffullisade]

Mollie is still pretty damn paranoid about you.

I'm not sure yet what I think.

Which is funny, because normally you're the one who is paranoid about me.

baselines are funny things.

[ThAdmiral]

+ there's atleast one scum in the neighborhoods and Slandaar makes a good bet. CTD might be scum afterall. He's ignoring discussing his neighborhood big time.

He uses the neighborhood spec to implicate CTD as scum should Slandaar flip town. This is essentially setting up lynches.

True, but at the same time he might be right.

I was pretty bullish about the fact that I was going to shoot ctd last night and I was blocked. I can only assume I was blocked by the mafia - in fact I was blocked from being investigated as well, what role does that? - why would they stop me from shooting unless ctd was scum?
This is, of course, a theory filled with holes, but it deserves at least some consideration.

Seriously I get really annoyed when I invest part of my emotionality into a post and all I get are responses like "logical fallacy" or "AtE"

Its like, did you seriously respond to me with THAT LITTLE effort and just completely ignore the SUBSTANCE behind my post?

Its ok bacde. I believe you.

FFS

someone give me someone to sheep who isn't Nacho or Bulb or Nero or Ffery/mollie or Bacde

Mala is out of commission for a while so...

You might have to compromise on one of your reads (preferably bulb or nacho). Unless we could agree to lynch seanald. I'd still be up for that.

@ ceph: can you remind me of the rena case? Is it essentially 4593?

[Cephrir]

4593 is a criticism of one post, but that post is pretty representative of her play. If you add "and she is doing all this constantly" to the end of the post, well, basically yes.

[penguin_alien]

...so we have two claimed town PRs saying they were blocked/impeded last night. I doubt the anti-town factions have two blocking abilities, so either one of them is lying or one of their targets interfered with the actions.

ThAd, why did you opt to shoot Bulbazak?

WRT Rena's claim, neither of the kills from last night strike me as likely Watcher targets--why block Rena? Since a ninja has flipped, I'd assume Rena's lack of result could only come from being blocked.

CTD, in light of Slandaar flipping town, a) why shouldn't we have you at the top of the scum list, and b) what's your take on the other neighbors?

[Seanald]

Why didn't you join any of the wagons yesterday penguin, your entire play yesterday boiled down to just posturing.

[Bacde]

@Bacde: I still have Nacho as a strong townread, especially after the way he stepped in at the end of the day yesterday. Scum could have just hung back and coasted, but Nacho chose to stick up for his townreads. I just can't see scum doing that.

Have you never defended a player who was town as scum before?

[Bulbazak]

@Bacde: I still have Nacho as a strong townread, especially after the way he stepped in at the end of the day yesterday. Scum could have just hung back and coasted, but Nacho chose to stick up for his townreads. I just can't see scum doing that.

Have you never defended a player who was town as scum before?

Of course I have. But never hard defending in that type of situation with 2 mislynch wagons neck and neck. It would have been more beneficial for scum Nacho to lurk and not do anything, essentially letting events play out without him. According to his avatar, he was V/LA. He could have played it off easily as not being available to stop it.

[penguin_alien]

Why didn't you join any of the wagons yesterday penguin, your entire play yesterday boiled down to just posturing.

You were my top lynch choice. Still wouldn't mind seeing you swing. And last I saw the thread, Slandaar certainly wasn't on the chopping block. I didn't love the Bulbazak wagon, although if both ThAd and Rena are on the up-and-up, he's less bonafide now. Why should I join a wagon I don't like under a plurality lynch system?

[PeregrineV]

Was less than pleased with QT last night. Bulba was not my first choice for a bullet.

But, we are now divining the setup to be 2 scumteams, each with a roleblocker, that each managed to block a PR without doubling up on either?

I think that's stretching it somewhat.

Vote: Nachomamma

[Bulbazak]

Was less than pleased with QT last night. Bulba was not my first choice for a bullet.

But, we are now divining the setup to be 2 scumteams, each with a roleblocker, that each managed to block a PR without doubling up on either?

I think that's stretching it somewhat.

Vote: Nachomamma

So you think that PA is stretching it with her spec and then you vote Nacho? Why?

[Nachomamma8]

beep beep boop you'll see me in the morning

[Nachomamma8]

oh right no prod dodge

Vote: PeregrineV

[CrashTextDummie]

in fact I was blocked from being investigated as well, what role does that?

Alien, a Jailkeeper variant. I've personally seen it used once in a large normal as a town role.

KK has to be considered when analyzing ThAd's and Rena's reports, though I very much doubt he would have targeted either of them. If he wanted to keep ThAd from shooting me, I believe he would have targeted myself, and I don't think he had strong concerns about Rena. Moderate chance he targeted Bulba though (VT-claim and a townread for him). That would leave one scum PR to account for Rena's lack of result for everything to make sense.

CTD, in light of Slandaar flipping town, a) why shouldn't we have you at the top of the scum list, and b) what's your take on the other neighbors?

a) would you like to present a case on me that doesn't involve set-up speculation?
b) I don't know why you're asking me this question, as very little has changed from my perspective.

----------------------

AK just had her strongest scum read flip town. AK also urged the town to look into the neighborhoods, and she got her wish. I would very much like a little more input from her than just announcing a willingness to sheep.

----------------------

Bulba's push against Slandaar still doesn't sit right with me, but his approach today seems reasonable enough.

Vote: Nero Cain

[Nero Cain]

Are you really suggesting that I'm scummy for doing the same thing as you I,e; lynching Slandaar? Hypocrisy, thy name is Bulb.

Slandaar, why would we assume 8 scum?

Questions 8 scum in a 24 player game (i.e. the 33% scum scenario).

So tell me which team as flipped with 4 team members? What evidence suggests we have 8 scum in this game and why shouldn't I question this?

No, I agree with Bulb here. I don't really buy Slandaar's excuse that "we should assume the maximum amount of scum" + Scumthez already speculated on there being "7-8 scum"

Again questions Slandaar's 33% claim. He also throws in something Thez said (something I had forgot about to be honest) to increase suspicion on Slandaar.

When Thez suggested "7 or 8" scum, I thought he was just bullshitting. When he flipped scum I still thought it was bullshit and thus ignored it. When Slan brought it up I was confused as fuck as too why 2 different players (one of wich is confirmed scum) would bring up the possibility of more than 6 scum. (3/3 scum teams are common, we haven't had a third kill yet so I'm doubting an SK)

+ there's atleast one scum in the neighborhoods and Slandaar makes a good bet. CTD might be scum afterall. He's ignoring discussing his neighborhood big time.

He uses the neighborhood spec to implicate CTD as scum should Slandaar flip town. This is essentially setting up lynches.

So I was setting up lynches but not voting for CTD, the lynch I supposedly set up, How the fuck does that work?


I also specifically said “there’s atleast one scum in the ‘hoods.” There are 3 hoods its not like I ever said "if Slan flips town then it makes CTD scum" and I have no clue how you would get that. So again you seem to be buddying/defending CTD here. Just like you were doing yesterday.


The reason that most of us were town reading CTD is ‘cause of his outting his neighborhood, when the friendly neighbor flipped. He’s experienced enough to know how to fake this, there’s also the possibility that he could just be scum and not know this. I don’t like it when my questions are ignored and CTD is avoiding discussing his neighbor hood actions for some odd reason. And in yet another bout of hypocrisy, Bulb is now calling me scummy for being suspicious of CTD while he is also suspicious of CTD.

Note to self: Look at CTD’s recent games, if there’s a friendly neighbor in it them he’s scum faking.

yeah, I just did the math. 6 is only 25%. 8 is 33.33333333333%. So 8 is more likely than 6. Slandaar is prob red scum with Cephir and two of Khan/Nacho/Rena/CTD/Bacde

So blue is probs Bulb with one of CTD/Bacde/khan.

Here he completely reverses his opinion on the number of scum in the game, probably due to the fact that he was being questioned about it by CTD.

no.

25% seems kinda low and I was slightly onboard with 2 4-man scum teams. I also like Desp’s assessment of 7 scum.

yeah, I just did the math. 6 is only 25%. 8 is 33.33333333333%. So 8 is more likely than 6. Slandaar is prob red scum with Cephir and two of Khan/Nacho/Rena/CTD/Bacde
So blue is probs Bulb with one of CTD/Bacde/khan.

How did you conclude that 1/3 is more likely than 1/4?

I might be wrong here...for some reason I had it in my head that scum were like 30ish% of a game.

He continues to backpedal after you question him on it further, going "Well, I may be wrong...". Essentially, when questioned, he avoided taking a strong stance on the main reason he was lynching Slandaar! Which begs the question, if he really didn't feel strongly about his reasons for being on the wagon, why was he on the wagon in the first place?

So a vote and and calling him scum is not a strong stance? Please do not post anymore and accept your lynch.

<<< After some intensive moderator labor, I have managed to fix (I think) the horribly-broken quote tags Nero had. Seriously, I can deal with double-posts, I can deal with accidental quotes being broken, but do you know how close I was to being unable to fix this? Too damn close. Don't be lazy, Nero. >>>

[Rena]

Aimed at someone (It's 3am) - I'm playing like a VT ie not being scared of being NK'd because THAT'S HOW TOWN PLAY. I trust my fellow townies enough to win this if I get killed. I think at least one of the people who was pushing for my lynch yesterday is town, that's why I'm still alive. This is because it makes lynching me easier. After all, why waste your bullet on a power role that could be lynched soon?

[Nero Cain]

CTD, Bulb is buddying the fuck out of you. Why are you ignoring this?