NY 164: Maniacal Street Mafia (Anticlimatically finished.)

Kublai Khan · Post Post #4725 (ISO) » Fri Jul 05, 2013 7:07 am

In post 4724, Bulbazak wrote:
In post 4693, Kublai Khan wrote: Where is it written that all neighborhoods must be "balanced" against each other? You're making the assumption that mirroring is the only way to balance a single aspect of a game setup, and even then you're leaving out possible ideas (say.. one neighborhood is a red/blue pairing).
Again, given how often this setup was reviewed, I'd say that the neighborhoods are likely balanced. I would say that the composition of the neighborhoods were determined beforehand, and the players were simply placed in those roles, rather than players placed into neighborhoods and then given the roles. Again, I ruled out other possible combinations via PoE. Now if you want to argue that my PoE is wrong, I'm all ears.

I am arguing that you're PoE is wrong. I understand how you got to your conclusions, but I don't believe that you've accounted for all possibilities. You've made assumptions, which is dangerous.

In post 4691, CrashTextDummie wrote: mastin2 has been a player and a mod for a long time and can certainly balance a PR heavier Scum Team A with Scum Team B having a say in who the vig targets.
Are you suggesting that one team has more PRs on it and is stronger than another team?

For example, you don't seem to have considered the possibility of two scum teams with different PRs and/or sizes. If you really want to follow the thought train of "lots of reviewers therefore..." then you should keep in mind that non-mirrored scum teams are incredibly tricky to balance.

I agree that the number of scum in the neighborhoods is between 0-2. That's the only assumption I've willing to commit to at this point.

--

In post 4723, Cephrir wrote:
In post 4681, Rena wrote:
In post 4678, Cephrir wrote:(Also, omgus can be a scumtell, depending, and in this case, with these wagons where they are, I think it is. There's also the aspect where you're scum so I tend to interpret additional actions as scum motivated)
If you're planning on fake claiming cop, it wont work. Insane cop is not a normal role.
Let me know when someone has a reason for us not lynching this on the spot

Watcher claim, Haylen, etc...

Bulbazak · Post Post #4726 (ISO) » Fri Jul 05, 2013 7:12 am

In post 4725, Slandaar wrote: Don't you find that even remotely suspicious?

What? Scum arguing that I'm scum? Given that scum try to wagon me every game, I'm not particularly surprised.

Nero Cain · Post Post #4727 (ISO) » Fri Jul 05, 2013 7:14 am

In post 4721, PeregrineV wrote:I also like the concept of a killer per neighborhood. I guess there could be 6 town neighbors in a 24 player game, but does anyone believe that?

no. I used to auto town read neighbors 'cause I was in so many games where the neighbors would read each other as scum that mods probs started doing town-town neighborhoods just to fuck with town.

What you are suggesting is that 3 of the 6 neighbors are scum which...just holy chain lynching batman. I deff think that all 6 neighbors aren't town. I also think its a good possibility that 1 hood could contain more than 1 scum.

ISO · Post Post #4728 (ISO) » Fri Jul 05, 2013 7:16 am

He was suggesting that 2 of the neghbors were scum (and that ThAd isn't)

Slandaar · Post Post #4729 (ISO) » Fri Jul 05, 2013 7:17 am

In post 4715, Desperado wrote: Gears of War mafia - 21 players, two scum teams, 6 scum, 29%
NY 143 - 21 players, two scum teams, 6 scum, 29%

Not a single one has 33% scum. If anything I think 7 scum with
unbalanced scum teams!!!
is probably the most likely, as almost every game falls between somewhere between 1/3 and 1/4. 7 falls right into that sweet spot at 29%.

These are the only 2 relevant as they are the only multiball; so what you have done here is inevitably pointless

Desperado · Post Post #4730 (ISO) » Fri Jul 05, 2013 7:20 am

WWE and 2 and a half friends had SK teams. Don't see how that's any different from two scum teams. And the point was that 33% scum doesn't appear anywhere, in any of those large games. Can you link me to some larges that have 33% scum?

Slandaar · Post Post #4731 (ISO) » Fri Jul 05, 2013 7:21 am

Nero Cain · Post Post #4732 (ISO) » Fri Jul 05, 2013 7:21 am

In post 4729, Cephrir wrote:He was suggesting that 2 of the neghbors were scum (and that ThAd isn't)

We have 3 hoods, one killer per hood is 3? How is my math wrong?

Slan: Did CTD ever ask you about outing ya'lls QT? What did you say when he mentioned it?

Bulb: I'm discussing lylo 'cause there's a good possibility of it happening, I find you both scummy as fuck and I think its in the towns best intrest to have you two dead.

Slandaar · Post Post #4733 (ISO) » Fri Jul 05, 2013 7:22 am

Sample size of 2 means nothing and then sk/scum is completely different to multiball

Nero Cain · Post Post #4734 (ISO) » Fri Jul 05, 2013 7:24 am

In post 4731, Desperado wrote:WWE and 2 and a half friends had SK teams. Don't see how that's any different from two scum teams. And the point was that 33% scum doesn't appear anywhere, in any of those large games. Can you link me to some larges that have 33% scum?

??????????????? I said ish. Stop being so goddamn literal.

ISO · Post Post #4735 (ISO) » Fri Jul 05, 2013 7:27 am

In post 4733, Nero Cain wrote:
In post 4729, Cephrir wrote:He was suggesting that 2 of the neghbors were scum (and that ThAd isn't)
We have 3 hoods, one killer per hood is 3? How is my math wrong?

Slan: Did CTD ever ask you about outing ya'lls QT? What did you say when he mentioned it?

Bulb: I'm discussing lylo 'cause there's a good possibility of it happening, I find you both scummy as fuck and I think its in the towns best intrest to have you two dead.

vigs are town

Desperado · Post Post #4736 (ISO) » Fri Jul 05, 2013 7:27 am

In post 4735, Nero Cain wrote:
In post 4731, Desperado wrote:WWE and 2 and a half friends had SK teams. Don't see how that's any different from two scum teams. And the point was that 33% scum doesn't appear anywhere, in any of those large games. Can you link me to some larges that have 33% scum?
??????????????? I said ish. Stop being so goddamn literal.

I wasn't talking to you Nero

PeregrineV · Post Post #4737 (ISO) » Fri Jul 05, 2013 7:40 am

In post 4728, Nero Cain wrote:
In post 4721, PeregrineV wrote:I also like the concept of a killer per neighborhood. I guess there could be 6 town neighbors in a 24 player game, but does anyone believe that?
no. I used to auto town read neighbors 'cause I was in so many games where the neighbors would read each other as scum that mods probs started doing town-town neighborhoods just to fuck with town.

What you are suggesting is that 3 of the 6 neighbors are scum which...just holy chain lynching batman. I deff think that all 6 neighbors aren't town. I also think its a good possibility that 1 hood could contain more than 1 scum.

Actually, I think ThAd is the vig, and there is a red scum in another neighborhood and a blue scum in another neighborhood.

PeregrineV · Post Post #4738 (ISO) » Fri Jul 05, 2013 7:45 am

In post 4725, Slandaar wrote:
In post 4724, Bulbazak wrote:
In post 4694, Slandaar wrote: Here is my wagon broken down

PV: I am voting Slandar because he has caught me.
Bulbazak: I am voting Slandaar because lol 4 scum. I make lots of assumptions too that make no sense but 4 scum? die.
Rena: Gotta save my buddy Bulbazak! Hope noone looks into my reasoning though! Also Slandaar has caught me.
AK: Well Gotta get rid of Slandaar he caught 2 of my buddies and Me!

Sums up things adequately.
So people start to see you as scummy, and your first reaction is to call everyone on your wagon scum?
Uh good try but I had them all as scum long ago you can see it in my reads post but go further back shall we?

I made a case on PV today
I voted AK with a case today
I want to lynch obvscum Rena

And then there is you who has been in my scumlist all game.

Don't you find that even remotely suspicious?

Vote Rena

You should probbly claim also.

It's the (lack of) quality of your cases. You never made a case on me, you made one on DLG after I replaced into the slot. And it's a bad one.
You made an AK case, but it was of such little consequence I can't remember a thing about it.
You want to lynch a claimed PR when there are 2 scumteams who would also want her out of the way.

And you've not answered about CTD:

@Slandaar- Based on your QT interactions to date, what is your read on CrashTextDummie. Based on thread-only posting, what is your read on CTD?
Briefly paraphrase the contents of your QT.

Nero Cain · Post Post #4739 (ISO) » Fri Jul 05, 2013 7:46 am

And who do you think are scum in the neighborhoods?

Slandaar · Post Post #4740 (ISO) » Fri Jul 05, 2013 7:52 am

Anyways I am a VT obviously. If Bulba claims anything other than VT at this point then hes scum and that should be pretty clear.

So, whatever, I am not moving my vote off Rena as that clearly should have been the lynch, won't be around for deadline.

And no I am not summing up our qt its not worth my time.

Nero Cain · Post Post #4741 (ISO) » Fri Jul 05, 2013 7:55 am

In post 4733, Nero Cain wrote: Slan: Did CTD ever ask you about outing ya'lls QT? What did you say when he mentioned it?

Bulbazak · Post Post #4742 (ISO) » Fri Jul 05, 2013 8:05 am

@ Khan: If you think I'm mistaken somewhere, then let's discuss where I might be mistaken. Are there possibilities that you think are likely that I'm missing, and if so why? Also, what are your thoughts on Slandaar-scum? We're getting close to deadline, so I'd like to know.

@CTD: Your main reasons for thinking I'm scum are my plan for leashing the vig., which I've explained my reasonings for, you disagreeing with my arguments, and Slandaar's misrep of my posts. Am I wrong? Why do you refuse to talk about what you disagree with and seek to discover my motivation? Why are my arguments scummy and not evidence of succumbing to some logical error?

@Desperado: What are your thoughts on scum distribution in the neighborhoods? Seeing as how you have a scumread on Seanald, I've assumed you've thought of it.

@Mod: Can we have an updated vote count?

mastin2 · Post Post #4743 (ISO) » Fri Jul 05, 2013 8:07 am

Yup, was in the process of making one.

<<< The voting history has a bit of an error where all July dates have been marked as the sixth month. That's a lot of votecounts to go fix, so I probably won't, but all votecounts from hereon out will have the correct month attached. >>>

One-Hundred-Fourteenth Votecount

:

(Forty-Seventh Votecount of Day Three,

AKA, the "Derp, July's the SEVENTH month" votecount.

)

Bulbazak - 7 (Human Destroyer, Seanald, ThAdmiral, ArcAngel9, Bacde, CrashTextDummie, Desperado)

Slandaar - 6 (PeregrineV, Bulbazak, Rena, Amethst Kitty, Nero Cain, Cephrir)

Rena - 2 (Slandaar, ffullisade)
Nero Cain - 1 (Kublai Khan)
Seanald - 1 (penguin_alien)
PeregrineV - 1 (Nachomamma8)

All votes are in play.

With

18

alive, it's

10

to lynch.

Day Three's deadline is Friday, July 5th, @ 2:30 PM PST, which is in (expired on 2013-07-05 14:30:00).

If deadline were to hit now,

Bubazak

would be lynched.

Rena is V/LA over weekends indefinitely.
The Malakittens half of the Amethyst Kitty hydra is V/LA until July 15th.
PeregrineV is V/LA until July 11th.
Human Destroyer is V/LA until Sunday, July 11th.
mastin2, the moderator, is V/LA for...a while.

Spoiler: Changes from last votecount

Last votecount was page 187, post 4652.

Spoiler: Player Vote History D3

Spoiler: Votecount History D3

There is a mod-edited votecount on page 189.

Spoiler: Post 4700

Bulbazak · Post Post #4744 (ISO) » Fri Jul 05, 2013 8:09 am

The following need to take a stance on the 2 wagons: Ffullisade, Kublai Khan, Penguin_alien, Nachomamma8.

Kublai Khan · Post Post #4745 (ISO) » Fri Jul 05, 2013 8:10 am

In post 4742, Bulbazak wrote:@ Khan: If you think I'm mistaken somewhere, then let's discuss where I might be mistaken. Are there possibilities that you think are likely that I'm missing, and if so why? Also, what are your thoughts on Slandaar-scum? We're getting close to deadline, so I'd like to know.

Um, I answered the first question in Post 4725. (After second quote)

Post 4640 answers your second question.

Vote: Slandaar

Desperado · Post Post #4746 (ISO) » Fri Jul 05, 2013 8:10 am

In post 4742, Bulbazak wrote:@Desperado: What are your thoughts on scum distribution in the neighborhoods? Seeing as how you have a scumread on Seanald, I've assumed you've thought of it.

I don't really care and it hasn't played a role in any of my reads. Everyone seems to agree that Mastin is a great mod and that this game took forever to review, so I think any combination of possibilities is in play, and trying to make decisions based on what the composition of the neighborhoods "should" look like at this stage of the game doesn't sit well with me.

<<< You're giving Nero Cain a run for his money in the "most posts deleted by the moderator" category. >>>

Desperado · Post Post #4747 (ISO) » Fri Jul 05, 2013 8:12 am

I have no idea what to make of Slandaar staying on the Rena wagon in lieu of putting Bulb to L-1 even though he thinks he's scum and he is his direct counterwagon.

???? what the hell?

Bulbazak · Post Post #4748 (ISO) » Fri Jul 05, 2013 8:19 am

In post 4725, Kublai Khan wrote: For example, you don't seem to have considered the possibility of two scum teams with different PRs and/or sizes. If you really want to follow the thought train of "lots of reviewers therefore..." then you should keep in mind that non-mirrored scum teams are incredibly tricky to balance.

See, I was a little confused here. You seem to be saying that I haven't considered non-mirrored teams in my speculation, but then go on to call non-mirrored teams unbalanced (Well, "incredibly tricky to balance", but when talking about setup spec, it's essentially the same thing.), which seems to support my original supposition. Am I missing something here, and if so, can you expand on this point?

@Desperado: Do you disagree that a scum flip in the neighborhoods would not clear things up as far as scumhunting goes, especially if, as we suppose, there's another scum in the neighborhoods as well?

Desperado · Post Post #4749 (ISO) » Fri Jul 05, 2013 8:24 am

In post 4748, Bulbazak wrote:@Desperado: Do you disagree that a scum flip in the neighborhoods would not clear things up as far as scumhunting goes, especially if, as we suppose, there's another scum in the neighborhoods as well?

Yes, I disagree.

There's no reason to assume both hypothetical scum teams should get one member each in a neighborhood other than you think it would be balanced, despite several players telling you that there are other ways to balance a game besides "total equality in everything."