In post 4691, CrashTextDummie wrote:
Strongly dislike most of Bulba's arguments against Slandaar, particularly the "4 scum per team" argument:
In post 4607, Bulbazak wrote:The typical scum to town ratio is 1:3, which would make the number of scum in this game 6. Using that logic, there would be 3 scum per team in a multiball situation, which we seem to be in. However, you assume that there is 4.
The only way I could see anyone coming to this conclusion is if they were on a scum team and knew that there were 4 players on the team
, which means that they would anticipate 8 scum. Therefore, your statement stating that there are 4 on each team is a scumslip.
So the only way Bulba can make sense of the situation is that Slandaar is himself on a 4-man scum team. But if that is his suspicion, why then is it impossible for a pro-town player (i.e. Slandaar) to make the assumption that we are dealing with 4-man scum teams? It's a completely illogical and circular argument and so far removed from being a scumslip it's not even funny.
How would he come up with such a number? 6 is understandable, given the 1:3 ratio, but pulling 8 out of thin air is not. The question that should be asked is: Why did he pick 8 scum rather than 6? His answer is that there were too many people that he wanted to call scum, so he just picked a bigger number, which is a crap explanation. Seriously, the first thought that should be entering into a town player's head in that instance is "I have too many scumspects. Not all of them are right.", not "I have too many scumspects. There must be more scum in the game than normal."
Also, when has Slandaar been "pro-town"?
In post 4691, CrashTextDummie wrote:
He then went on to argue that it's better for town to assume the best-case scenario of 3-man scumteams, which is a highly debatable theory stance at best, but the implication was that only scum would take the worst-case scenario approach, and that simply doesn't hold any water.
Scum would assume the worst case scenario for town, not necessarily the worst case scenario for them. That's why scum will consider lylo before town will, because they have to make it to lylo, where town doesn't want to. Therefore, if someone is making a worst case scenario assumption about the setup, they're most likely not town, but scum who actually has prior knowledge about the setup.
In post 4691, CrashTextDummie wrote:
Fact is that scum:town ratios are not set in stone and can be balanced by the power-level of the town. This line of attack is completely cooked up.
Still, there tend to be typical expected scum:town ratios, 1:3 being the main one. I'm not saying that all games follow them, I'm just saying that anybody being sure otherwise in a closed setup should be met with suspicion.
Funny, you're not showing it.
In post 4691, CrashTextDummie wrote:
I think his play today has been noticeably different from the first 2 days, he's been a much less forceful presence and I strongly disagree with several of his reads. I do not however see this as a strong indication of him being scum in itself and no one has pointed out any actions of his that clearly read as scum-motivated to my knowledge.
You previously called him a "pro-town player", but now you seem doubtful about his alignment. This whole paragraph reads a little wishy washy to me.
In post 4691, CrashTextDummie wrote:
Balance speculation wrt to the neighborhoods should come into consideration, but not before we actually
know
anything solid based on flips.
So that precludes me thinking that Slandaar is scum? Regardless of flips atm, we can make a pretty good guess about how neighborhoods are balanced given the setup right now. Given what we know so far, 3 neighborhoods, each with a killing role (one each for blue/red/town), makes sense from a balance point of view. After Slandaar's scum flip, I will use this information accordingly to lynch the other scum neighbor.
What doesn't make sense? You can always ask me instead of going "I don't understand. Scum!".
The more I thought about it, the harder time I had seeing ThAd being scum fake claiming vig., mostly due to his attitude and willingness not to play ball with the town. I would think that scum in such a position would want to please the town and get on their good side, i.e. gain towncred. ThAd, however, is not interested in this at all. Don't get me wrong, I still think he's dangerous for the town, and I spent an inconsiderable amount of time trying to decide if he should be policy lynched, which is big for me, because I don't really care for PLs.
In post 4691, CrashTextDummie wrote:
I get the strong impression that he's tailoring his assumptions to the desired conclusion, and not the other way around.
How does that make me scum?
In post 4691, CrashTextDummie wrote:
Lastly, I agree that Bulba's "two blue neighbors would be unfair to red" looks like a slip. He's tried to play it down by stating that "unfair to town" was his main point and "unfair to red" merely a balance after-thought, but i really don't think that fairness between scum-teams should ever enter a town-player's mind at all.
I never said that! I said that either team having more than 2 scum in the neighborhoods would be
unbalanced
. And given that this game was overly reviewed, whether or not something is balanced should come into consideration.
In post 4693, Kublai Khan wrote:
Where is it written that all neighborhoods must be "balanced" against each other? You're making the assumption that mirroring is the only way to balance a single aspect of a game setup, and even then you're leaving out possible ideas (say.. one neighborhood is a red/blue pairing).
Again, given how often this setup was reviewed, I'd say that the neighborhoods are likely balanced. I would say that the composition of the neighborhoods were determined beforehand, and the players were simply placed in those roles, rather than players placed into neighborhoods and then given the roles. Again, I ruled out other possible combinations via PoE. Now if you want to argue that my PoE is wrong, I'm all ears.
In post 4691, CrashTextDummie wrote:
mastin2 has been a player and a mod for a long time and can certainly balance a PR heavier Scum Team A with Scum Team B having a say in who the vig targets.
Are you suggesting that one team has more PRs on it and is stronger than another team?
In post 4694, Slandaar wrote:
Here is my wagon broken down
PV: I am voting Slandar because he has caught me.
Bulbazak: I am voting Slandaar because lol 4 scum. I make lots of assumptions too that make no sense but 4 scum? die.
Rena: Gotta save my buddy Bulbazak! Hope noone looks into my reasoning though! Also Slandaar has caught me.
AK: Well Gotta get rid of Slandaar he caught 2 of my buddies and Me!
Sums up things adequately.
So people start to see you as scummy, and your first reaction is to call everyone on your wagon scum?
In post 4704, CrashTextDummie wrote:
So nero and bulba are scum together. Both attacking each other hardcore, then magically ending up on the same bullshit wagon.
Nero's reaction to Slandaar's slip made me reconsider my read on him. I started flashing back to Metal Overlord in Voided's nightless game. I'm more than willing to give him a break in order to lynch scum.
In post 4691, CrashTextDummie wrote:
Nero's reasoning is even more terrible and illustrates a glaring flaw in bulba's as well: if thez already slipped that there are 7 to 8 scum
To be honest, I forgot that Thez had said that until Nero brought it up. I'm assuming almost everyone else has as well, since we've never really seriously discussed such a possibility.
Again, I don't think anybody seriously considered what Thez said, and we were still considering 2 3-man scum teams. Slandaar then magically appears and says there are 2 4-man scum teams, yet he never saw fit to say something before when everybody was discussing 3-man scum teams? I don't see him doing that as town. At the very least he'd say, "You know, I think you may be wrong there.", but he never did. He slipped intimate knowledge about the setup that he shouldn't have known as town. Deal with it.
Also, how is Nero scummy for saying that we're likely in multi-ball before it became common knowledge, yet Slandaar is not scummy for saying that we are dealing with 2 4-man scum teams without any indication that he's right?
In post 4705, Desperado wrote:
Bulb v Slandaar is looks way more like Bulb v Molla than anything in NY 163.
How so?
In post 4708, Nero Cain wrote:
I also do not care who dies between Bulb and Slan 'cause I want both gone before lylo.
Why are you even thinking about Lylo?!?
In post 4711, Nero Cain wrote:yeah, I just did the math. 6 is only 25%. 8 is 33.33333333333%. So 8 is more likely than 6. Slandaar is prob red scum with Cephir and two of Khan/Nacho/Rena/CTD/Bacde
So blue is probs Bulb with one of CTD/Bacde/khan.
Backpedal ahoy!
Nevermind, Nero is still scum.
