Micro 186: Vengeball (Game is over)

[MP5]

/confirm

Hello to a couple of familiar faces and a bunch of new ones.

[MP5]

Ok, setup spec from reading the rules:

" There is a mafia godfather on each team"

Ergo, there are two Mafia teams, and if you define one member as godfather it leaves one as goon, meaning a 5/2/2 setup?

[MP5]

@Jason wazza - yep, that's totally it. Couldn't be that I'm a townie in a setup I have no idea about at all or anything. Your deduction powers are impeccable.

(Don't worry, I'll catch up fast though.)

[MP5]

Having read the spoiler tags for the role pms, it makes more sense now.

[MP5]

Noted, I'll make sure to never use it again, I think ...

[MP5]

Lol Siv, is that a meta argument, or have you forgotten the last time we met? Hopefully this time I'll be easier to read for you

VOTE: katsuki

Unexplained vote change?

I don't read wisdom as forced, personally (though I may be biased as I have been the subject being talked about)

[MP5]

Yep, and I was the subject of theorised PL ...

[MP5]

Actually, I was thinking it would actually help town ...

Because the game is nightless, every kill is town controlled. If we happen to lynch a townie, then we should at least cast preferences as to who they should venge kill. Of course, they can always ignore it, but it does give us another measure of voting and influencing control of a kill which can be analysed later as well ...

5/2/2 normally would be horribly scum-sided, but this mechanic lets us fight back imo.

[MP5]

Ah Hmm, I go away for a day and miss almost for pages ...

Skimmed through, happy to keep my vote on katsuki. Might skim through and cast a venge kill suggestion on the chance katsuki flips town soon, will have more time to post in-depth this evening when I get home (approx 6-7 hrs)

[MP5]

Katsuki, can you explain where your scum read of wisdom came from back at page 2? In 131, rift makes a case for wisdom based on two points - one from post 50, and one from post 124 I think - both of which came after you had fixed on to him?

Jk Matthews and rift both read solidly as town to me, I don't want to see either lynched or venged at this point.

Wisdom I don't fully agree with the scum read on, his reaction with the "oh right" was kind of what went on in my head when I first read that part of the thread. I had him as fairly null up to and even after encouraging the hammer, until jk's point that pushing for him to make what he believes is a sub-optimal lynch was bad play. Marginal scum lean based on this point, but not convinced.

Jake I am mostly following as well, not sure where the scum read comes here, id have him leaning the town side of null.

Katsuki is still my main scum read, 72 really rubs me the wrong way, way I see it is katsuki didn't slip, in his/her mind perceives that he/she hasn't made a mistake, and is angry at being "caught" for "no reason". Don't fully agree with the reason the wagon got started, but reactions once it did are enough for me to keep my vote.

Seanald's vote is opportunistic, not only that but in every game I've ever stalked with him in it (plus the one game we played together) he always seems scummy to me, and this is no exception. He'd be my #1 suggestion for katsuki to venge if he is lynched and flips town (of your suspects wisdom/Jake, I'd say wisdom more than Jake)

Jason/Siv I haven't got enough from, but prob at least 1 scum in here by a combination of PoE, lurkiness, and probability. Siv more than Jason atm, gut.

Apologies for not linking but I'm stuck with phone posting currently as I wasn't able to get to my laptop last night :S

[MP5]

VOTE: Siv

Seriously, wtf man.

I want Siv, seanald, then probably Jason in that order.

Banking on rift adrift and jk town, with possibly Jake (or Jason at a longshot) as backup.

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Nope, there's only 3 townies left, and I've got myself and you as two of them jk most likely 3rd.

There's a lot of scum left.

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Ah, you're here Jake. Can you explain this for me?

I have a reason why I'm suspicious of him, now you will never know why

Why wouldn't you share any information or analysis you had with town at that point, only to say "rift said what I was thinking" some 20ish posts later?

[MP5]

cause I was aggrivated/annoyed and didn't really feel like it. Plus I felt it was pretty obvious why he should have been suspcious

Right. Except it wasn't obvious, for mine he was null till 124 which was bad post, which came after your initial hinting at suspicion.

How does being aggravated/annoyed and not feeling like contributing help? I need to successfully pick which two of you remaining are town and you're not helping me, let alone anyone else.

[MP5]

Ok Siv, who's scum?

And lets suppose you're right and you are town and you get mislynched, don't you think its important to make sure you venge scum and avoid town? Here, they're the same thing.

[MP5]

Jason, try again please, I'm not in to lynch rift, and I don't agree with your reasoning as to why he's scum about as much as I disagree with the "if you were town, you'd realise the danger" reasoning you had on wisdom back in 153.

Rift, of those two I'm more down with seanald than Jason right now. I'm still undecided as to who is scummier out of Jason and Jake, and that's a bridge I'd like to save crossing until I need to. I'm hoping we'll hit a gf and their goon will die too, if that decision isn't made for us I'll reconsider after I've seen some flips.

We do need a consensus of at least the three town and one opposing Mafia, or failing that two and two (with either both opposing Mafia on board, or a bus from the gf)

I'm happy for this then:

VOTE: seanald

Siv, is seanald a lynch you can support?
Jake, Jason, jk, same question.

Lets talk it out before a hasn't though

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EBWOP: hammer, not hasn't. Phone post, I wasn't able to edit it due to the annoying formatting of these forums :S so I submitted so as not to lose what I'd typed up.

[MP5]

Reads to me more like the two heads of the hydra had a disagreement, f was seeing things one way and s comes in and changes that read.

Jake, does that mean you think Jason is town?

[MP5]

Why did you say "rift <snip> thinks she can pluck off town" then? Jason was her target, and you're implying that you saw him as town there.

Is Jason scum?
Lets suppose he is, does that implicate rift more or less?

[MP5]

UNVOTE:

I wanna see this play out, so no hammer just yet.

Looking back over his iso (yeah I did the same thing Jake), seanald is scummy as anything and I do want him lynched, but at least not until we discuss this. I also want Jason's input before any more action takes place.

[MP5]

Well it seems you two have dated before, I had to go read a bunch of pages from said game (I forget was it 182?) Some of which was rather unpleasant.

I get that you have history and that will help and/or affect what happens here, but I'm new to this particular online dating site so can we please keep the in-jokes out of it? Thanks.

Lemme look back on this later Jake, I want some scum flips first. Fwiw, you've moved ahead of Jason in the "which J is townier" contest.

VOTE: Seanald

On the increasingly diminishing chance that he is town, I'd want him to venge Siv. But I see little possibility of that.

[MP5]

I could see Seanald

Maybe

being scum, but i somehow doubt it, seanald is being seanald.

Hi Jason. I assume you have yourself as town, that means from your POV there are two town left. Is seanald seriously one of your two top town reads?

The rest of the theory discussion I totally agree with, but that's just basic math. Heck, I think even Siv is wrong in saying it's town loss with one more mislynch - but it's then a delicate tightrope to walk to try to get each Mafia team on board to lynch the other.

Where the heck is jk by the way??

@mod - due for a prod yet?

[MP5]

Thankyou, someone else that is interested in lynching scum, whether they be gf or goon ...

Cmon, someone has to compromise here. I've already stated Siv is my preferred lynch, seanald 2nd isn't much of a compromise for me. Jake or Jason would be a serious compromise lynch to me - if you want me on board for either of these right now, you'd better come up with something a lot more substantial (ie a strong case, and a wagon that isn't going away, probably L-1)

I'm not compromising on rift or jk/klick today.

[MP5]

Sorry, been swamped lately with work stuff and being newly married too ...

Siv not hammering this time I find very interesting, I much prefer the tension and dialogue it creates, which we sorely missed on day one.

If it's between rift and seanald, and Siv is leaning towards rift, I would like the time to consider an alternate candidate as I've already stated I'm not happy with rift lynch.

Think about it, if Siv wants to hammer rift - and if rift is a gf, as some propose - then his goon is either myself (which I know is false from my POV), or klick. And I don't get anything of a scum read from klick, nor a rift/klick team feel.
UNVOTE:

Phone posting, I'll put up more thoughts tonight, but I'd consider being on board for a Jason lynch. Jake, not as much.

[MP5]

Yep I'd prefer this lynch to rift:

VOTE: Jason

Lol at the misread of what I said.

Siv, I don't think Jake is town. I do think that there are at least two players higher on my scumdar than him (seanald #1, and Jason #2, with possibly you #3), and hence I don't really care what he is right now. I want scum flips of my highest scum reads, then I will reconsider after that.

[MP5]

Sweet!

Yeah, I was actually quite optimistic from Jakes reaction to the lynch that we'd hit his gf.

Now ... Seanald, care to explain where you've been and what you've been doing this game?

[MP5]

Checking back in.

I was going to post that I mostly agree with klick's premises in post 509, particularly that it's not a rift-seanald team (either way). From my POV, that means at least one scum out of (klick, Siv).

I also feel there is at least one scum between (Siv, seanald), as I don't have the humility to think I could be wrong on both rift and jk/klick, my ego says surely I'm right on at least one of them being town.

The one point I'm uncertain on is that it wasn't two town wagons yesterday on rift and seanald. He uses this to discount the possibility of it being me-Siv as a team, but should I sheep this logic it means I should in turn discount the possibility of a klick-Siv team. I do agree that this is a less likely probability, but I'm way of someone using logic and arguments that clear themselves to other people ...

Probability-wise, it seems I should be voting Siv, but based on play to now I really want to vote seanald.

Before I do, I should consider the possibility that if I'm hammered from here, who would you all like me to venge? Please vote for this now as it will also help my reads in piecing this together.

[MP5]

Trying to shoot klick would be like swinging and aiming for the fences - if it pays off, you've hit a home run; but if not, you're in trouble. He might be the gf, he's been bussing seanald hard though if your theory is right.

Seanald - are you voting me, or Siv?

Even if seanald has me as scum, I'd still feel more comfortable lynching him. If he is town and chose to venge me, then it's game over, but I don't want to embark upon a plan that relies upon the venge kill anyway. I'd rather hit who I feel to be the best lynch, and hopefully end it here or give ourselves two chances at the remaining scum.

VOTE: seanald

[MP5]

MP5 I can't tell you how happy I was to see that you'd venged klick! Great shot!

Thankyou

Just phone posting, wanted to say

good job town!

Will post full thoughts later, for now just enjoying this was great to see rift and Siv carry it through.