NY 164: Maniacal Street Mafia (Anticlimatically finished.)

mastin2 · Post Post #2325 (ISO) » Thu May 23, 2013 9:18 am

In post 2324, Haylen wrote:Just to check, the game has fucking started now right? Jesus merciful christ.

You don't think we could get ninety-four pages without it being D1, do you?

(Yes, it's D1, as the title of the thread says.)

Forty-ninth Votecount

:

(

AKA, the "Yes, this is a loooooooooong game" votecount

)

Desperado - 6 (Cephrir, ArcAngel9, Thor665, Bulbazak, Syryana, Amethyst Kitty)

penguin_alien - 4 (Nachomamma8, Kublai Khan, Red Ryu, Om the Destroyer)

Nachomamma8 - 3 (Seanald, CrashTextDummie, Bacde)
Haylen - 2 (thezmon221, Oversoul)
BeautyAndTheBeast - 1 (Nero Cain)
Thor665 - 1 (Slandaar)
Nero Cain - 1 (BeautyAndTheBeast)
Oversoul - 1 (Desperado)

Not Voting - 5 (ThAdmiral, EddieFenix, PeregrineV, penguin_alien, Haylen)

With

24

players alive, it's

13

to lynch.

If deadline were to hit now, Desperado would be lynched.

New deadline is Tuesday, May 28th, @ 12:30 PM PST, which is in (expired on 2013-05-28 12:31:59).

Nero Cain is V/LA until Thursday, May 23rd.
Haylen is finishing her final exams.
Thor665 is on V/LA until Sunday, May 26th.
mastin2, the mod, is sick.

Spoiler: changes from last official votecount

Spoiler: Player Vote History

Spoiler: Voting History

(Side-note, we're ten posts short of being the longest D1 ever. Sorry for inspiring such activity in you guys?)

Desperado · Post Post #2326 (ISO) » Thu May 23, 2013 9:22 am

In post 2323, thezmon221 wrote:
In post 2322, Desperado wrote:@ Bolded: or yours is too narrow. Confirmation bias is approaching an argument with a preconceived conclusion and then fitting the evidence to fit your conclusion. If the scum's job is to secure MLs, and they must do this while also appearing to be town, then please,
please
tell me why it is
completely implausible
for scum to employ confirmation bias in their argument, and how this correlation is so strong that, even though I've repeatedly said the opposite, I just don't know what the fuck I'm talking about and I scumslipped end of story why aren't more people voting him.
It's impossible for scum to employ confirmation bias because they
already know
your alignment. The only way they could possibly commit confirmation bias is through saying that you are so townie and everything you do is townie, however you accused Nacho of the very obvious. Scum already know that X person is town, so they can't go in with a confirmation bias that said person is scum, because they know that this person isn't scum. The only preconceived notion they may possess is that the person is obvtown. The only possible instance where they could ever actually commit confirmation bias in a scum way (being what Nacho supposedly did) would be a bus, because he then actually has the notion that you are scum, and is able to fit his evidence to scumminess.

This is not a satisfactory explanation. If Nacho is scum, he must secure MLs. In order to secure MLs, he must get townies lynched. How does he accomplish this without garnering suspicion himself? By doing it a townie way, in this case by exhibiting confirmation bias in his treatment of me.

In the process of appearing to be town, Nacho has resorted to a logically faulty approach in which he starts with the premise that I am scum and fits the evidence to his conclusion. Your adherence to the assertion that "scum can't do it because they know your alignment already and its so hard to fake!" when the reason that confirmation bias is such a logically faulty approach is precisely due to how easy and disingenuous it is AND the scum's success in any given game is entirely dependent on their ability to fake towntells and not get lynched is where my issue lies.

Bottomline: I refuse to accept that scum are incapable of conf bias, and if calling Nacho out for using it in his argument against me gets me lynched then so be it.

Also, my understanding is that Nacho IS a very good player who WOULD be fully capable of feigning it, so why is it so hard for you and Bulb and Ceph to see my side of this? Why are you so content to just tell me what I meant and vote me on a nonexistent scumslip? It's lazy, and its narrow minded.
I never knew I was voting for you. And by that I mean, I never voted for you. I don't think you realized that I was on your side in this instance until you unnecessarily blew it up. I challenged Bulb's point against you by saying it was weak, but then I made a side statement saying how confirmation bias is submitting to the fact that a person is town.

Sorry, I took your cheerleading of Bulb to be a tacit approval of his vote. You challenged Bulb's point as weak, and then...immediately agreed with it and have three separate responses that are in support of Bulb's point. So why are you simultaneously backing up Bulb's point, which you thought was weak, while claiming that you "were on my side?" I don't understand.

thezmon221 · Post Post #2327 (ISO) » Thu May 23, 2013 9:50 am

Post 201 was the Day Opening post, Haylen.

thezmon221 · Post Post #2328 (ISO) » Thu May 23, 2013 9:59 am

In post 2326, Desperado wrote:
In post 2323, thezmon221 wrote:
In post 2322, Desperado wrote:-snip-
It's impossible for scum to employ confirmation bias because they
already know
your alignment. The only way they could possibly commit confirmation bias is through saying that you are so townie and everything you do is townie, however you accused Nacho of the very obvious. Scum already know that X person is town, so they can't go in with a confirmation bias that said person is scum, because they know that this person isn't scum. The only preconceived notion they may possess is that the person is obvtown. The only possible instance where they could ever actually commit confirmation bias in a scum way (being what Nacho supposedly did) would be a bus, because he then actually has the notion that you are scum, and is able to fit his evidence to scumminess.
This is not a satisfactory explanation. If Nacho is scum, he must secure MLs. In order to secure MLs, he must get townies lynched. How does he accomplish this without garnering suspicion himself? By doing it a townie way, in this case by exhibiting confirmation bias in his treatment of me.
In the process of appearing to be town, Nacho has resorted to a logically faulty approach in which he starts with the premise that I am scum and fits the evidence to his conclusion. Your adherence to the assertion that "scum can't do it because they know your alignment already and its so hard to fake!" when the reason that confirmation bias is such a logically faulty approach is precisely due to how easy and disingenuous it is AND the scum's success in any given game is entirely dependent on their ability to fake towntells and not get lynched is where my issue lies.

Bottomline: I refuse to accept that scum are incapable of conf bias, and if calling Nacho out for using it in his argument against me gets me lynched then so be it.

So what you're saying is you're stubborn enough to not even remotely recognize my point? That is, after all, what your large font statement is saying. And also, you seem to not read me correctly. I did NOT say that confirmation bias could not be committed by scum because it's "too hard," I'm saying they can't commit it because they know they are scum and that you are town. They can't go in with this preconceived notion that X is scum because they AREN'T scum, but the player making the "case" is. There's no confirmation bias involved with their case, only manipulation of their points, twisting of their words (which is kind of the same), and sometimes a tunneling which only strengthens their points due to the in-your-face attitude presented and the fact that a lot of people who fall for it don't actually go back and reread the actual context of the quote.

Sorry, I took your cheerleading of Bulb to be a tacit approval of his vote. You challenged Bulb's point as weak, and then...immediately agreed with it and have three separate responses that are in support of Bulb's point. So why are you simultaneously backing up Bulb's point, which you thought was weak, while claiming that you "were on my side?" I don't understand.

It was merely a side note of mine, and I had no intention of actually arguing it. I challenged Bulb's premise for the post, and then, like I said, you blew up the point and forced me to argue against you in a way that supposedly puts me in conjunction with Bulb. I still don't think you're scummy, just that one instance.

Desperado · Post Post #2329 (ISO) » Thu May 23, 2013 10:17 am

This:

Confirmation bias is the conceived notion that they have already determined your alignment and developed a case around it. They don't know your alignment, but they think you are X alignment, which is generally scum.
It is very hard to feign for most mafia players unless they are very scummy.

Reads to me like you are supporting your assertion (that scum can't have confirmation bias because they already know the other player's alignment) by saying that it is too hard to fake unless they are really good. Can you clarify what you meant by that?

It was merely a side note of mine, and I had no intention of actually arguing it. I challenged Bulb's premise for the post, and then, like I said, you blew up the point and
forced me to argue against you in a way that supposedly puts me in conjunction with Bulb.
I still don't think you're scummy, just that one instance.

Are you disputing that you are supporting Bulb's point almost word for word? How are you "supposedly" in conjunction with Bulb when this is how your exchange occurred:

Bulb's original point:

This just tells me that you aren't even reading what I'm saying and are just trying to discredit the argument. The point is that scum don't suffer from confirmation bias, because they KNOW who is not on their team (confirmation bias depends on not knowing). Ergo, they know who is not scum. Therefore, any tunneling they do is driven by a scum desire for a mislynch and not confirmation bias.

You called him out saying it was weak and he responded with:

How is that weak? Desperado implied knowledge of Nacho being town when he said Nacho was suffering from confirmation bias. Since he has said that he thinks that Nacho is scum, this can only mean that Desperado scum slipped when trying to discredit Nacho's push, and has thereby confirmed Nacho to be town. Ergo, Desperado is scum. How is that hard to understand?

And your response was:

I know I personally have been able to deduce in an argument I am in that a person has succumbed to confirmation bias when I am town. Just because he says that Nacho is succumbed to such doesn't entirely mean that Despo is scum. While the part where he flipped his read on Nacho is scummy itself, the confirmation bias point simply is weak. Scum and town alike can come to the same conclusion. Scum are going to be more accurate, yes, because they know the alignments. However, a town can make the same conclusion if they are able to get into a third perspective of the argument, which is what a townie should be able to do in such an argument.

Which you immediately followed up with:

Confirmation bias itself, I will agree with Bulb, generally pertains to the fact that the person committing confirmation bias (in this case, Nacho) is town, since generally scum doesn't need to fit the read to a case as they know your alignment. Due to this, it seemed that you submitted to him being town in this instance with the belief of his confirmation bias.

This just tells me that you aren't even reading what I'm saying and are just trying to discredit the argument. The point is that scum don't suffer from confirmation bias, because they KNOW who is not on their team (confirmation bias depends on not knowing). Ergo, they know who is not scum. Therefore, any tunneling they do is driven by a scum desire for a mislynch and not confirmation bias.

Confirmation bias itself, I will agree with Bulb, generally pertains to the fact that the person committing confirmation bias (in this case, Nacho) is town, since generally scum doesn't need to fit the read to a case as they know your alignment. Due to this, it seemed that you submitted to him being town in this instance with the belief of his confirmation bias.

So if you thought it was weak, why are you basically parroting said weak point less than 30 posts later?

Kublai Khan · Post Post #2330 (ISO) » Thu May 23, 2013 10:21 am

Does anyone else fellow the desperado/thezmon/cephrir debate is kinda going nowhere?

ISO · Post Post #2331 (ISO) » Thu May 23, 2013 10:23 am

Desperado · Post Post #2332 (ISO) » Thu May 23, 2013 10:23 am

In post 2330, Kublai Khan wrote:Does anyone else fellow the desperado/thezmon/cephrir debate is kinda going nowhere?

Start talking about something else, then.

Maybe why you're still on the BS slot when there is support for your OS case.

BeautyAndTheBeast · Post Post #2333 (ISO) » Thu May 23, 2013 10:25 am

yes

but desperado is in the lead and I actually think he is town so I cannot blame him for doing what he is doing. plus the extended interactions will help with reads once there is a flip.

also I am about as bad as bc for my bipolarism on nacho in this game.

Slandaar · Post Post #2334 (ISO) » Thu May 23, 2013 10:32 am

Thez is really looking like scum to me recently.

BeautyAndTheBeast · Post Post #2335 (ISO) » Thu May 23, 2013 10:48 am

tbh he kind of is to me too which is why I almost want to lynch nacho again despite that beautiful moment

thezmon221 · Post Post #2336 (ISO) » Thu May 23, 2013 10:56 am

Desperado wrote:This:
Confirmation bias is the conceived notion that they have already determined your alignment and developed a case around it. They don't know your alignment, but they think you are X alignment, which is generally scum.
It is very hard to feign for most mafia players unless they are very scummy.
Reads to me like you are supporting your assertion (that scum can't have confirmation bias because they already know the other player's alignment) by saying that it is too hard to fake unless they are really good. Can you clarify what you meant by that?

thezmon221 wrote:...they can't commit it because they know they are scum and that you are town. They can't go in with this preconceived notion that X is scum because they AREN'T scum, but the player making the "case" is. There's no confirmation bias involved with their case, only manipulation of their points, twisting of their words (which is kind of the same), and sometimes a tunneling which only strengthens their points due to the in-your-face attitude presented and the fact that a lot of people who fall for it don't actually go back and reread the actual context of the quote.

While I suppose they could conceivably commit a feigned confirmation bias, it is much more likely to look like this instead, and isn't an actual confirmation bias.

It was merely a side note of mine, and I had no intention of actually arguing it. I challenged Bulb's premise for the post, and then, like I said, you blew up the point and
forced me to argue against you in a way that supposedly puts me in conjunction with Bulb.
I still don't think you're scummy, just that one instance.
Are you disputing that you are supporting Bulb's point almost word for word? How are you "supposedly" in conjunction with Bulb when this is how your exchange occurred:

-snip-

So if you thought it was weak, why are you basically parroting said weak point less than 30 posts later?

I called him out on it being a

weak point.

I did

NOT

say it was not scummy. I think it's scummy, but I think it's weak. He disagrees. The only similarity there is that we both think it's scummy.

Haylen · Post Post #2337 (ISO) » Thu May 23, 2013 10:57 am

Question for those who are against massclaiming now.

Would you massclaim if the town decided to?

Haylen · Post Post #2338 (ISO) » Thu May 23, 2013 12:01 pm

And who the heck is HD? Page 16 @ Ceph.

Haylen · Post Post #2339 (ISO) » Thu May 23, 2013 12:24 pm

In post 2338, Haylen wrote:And who the heck is HD? Page 16 @ Ceph.

Derped. Part of Omdes.

Bacde · Post Post #2340 (ISO) » Thu May 23, 2013 12:26 pm

In post 2337, Haylen wrote:Question for those who are against massclaiming now.

Would you massclaim if the town decided to?

probably not

Bacde · Post Post #2341 (ISO) » Thu May 23, 2013 12:26 pm

thez is scum, nacho is scum, thor might be scum, eddiefenix is obviously scum w/ nacho

what else is there to say about this game?

Bacde · Post Post #2342 (ISO) » Thu May 23, 2013 12:27 pm

OH right AA9 is scum

Bacde · Post Post #2343 (ISO) » Thu May 23, 2013 12:32 pm

and pirate_mollie is obviously, painfully town

BeautyAndTheBeast · Post Post #2344 (ISO) » Thu May 23, 2013 12:33 pm

EddieFenix · Post Post #2345 (ISO) » Thu May 23, 2013 12:38 pm

In post 2337, Haylen wrote:Question for those who are against massclaiming now.

Would you massclaim if the town decided to?

NOPE. I am not giving mafia ANY insight.

EddieFenix · Post Post #2346 (ISO) » Thu May 23, 2013 12:40 pm

In post 2341, Bacde wrote:thez is scum, nacho is scum, thor might be scum, eddiefenix is obviously scum w/ nacho

what else is there to say about this game?

That you are terribly tunnel visioning and trying to link me to nacho is just stupid.

Bacde · Post Post #2347 (ISO) » Thu May 23, 2013 12:47 pm

In post 2346, EddieFenix wrote:
In post 2341, Bacde wrote:thez is scum, nacho is scum, thor might be scum, eddiefenix is obviously scum w/ nacho

what else is there to say about this game?
That you are terribly tunnel visioning and trying to link me to nacho is just stupid.

no its not

lol @ your response though

Haylen · Post Post #2348 (ISO) » Thu May 23, 2013 12:49 pm

Ok, I'm about a third of the way through the thread, going to stop reading now because It's late and I can't think straight. The good news is I have 9 A4 pages worth of notes (on paper, need to transfer to ipad) so far and several scum reads. Yay!

Bulbazak · Post Post #2349 (ISO) » Thu May 23, 2013 1:47 pm

In post 2312, Desperado wrote:Please show me where I have told you to stop delving into the meaning of what I said.

Every time you say that we cannot apply our arguments to you, it is implied that you want us to stop.

In post 2326, Desperado wrote:

Bottomline: I refuse to accept that scum are incapable of conf bias, and if calling Nacho out for using it in his argument against me gets me lynched then so be it.

So you're not going to listen, and any further discussion will fall on deaf ears and will lead to you creating noise. Gotcha. You're either town who refuses to learn (Which I find unlikely.), or you are scum that has trapped himself in a stance and has no other choice but to pound it into the ground.

In post 2337, Haylen wrote:Question for those who are against massclaiming now.

Would you massclaim if the town decided to?

No.