NY 164: Maniacal Street Mafia (Anticlimatically finished.)

mastin2 · Post Post #2150 (ISO) » Tue May 21, 2013 9:49 am

I have replacement flavor now!
(Also, put some in here.

Sorry for the delay.)

Forty-third Votecount

:

(

AKA, the "Answer to life, the universe, and everything...plus one!" votecount

)

Desperado - 7 (Nachomamma8, Syryana, Cephrir, Om the Destroyer, ArcAngel9, Thor665, Bulbazak)

Nachomamma8 - 6 (Red Ryu, Seanald, CrashTextDummie, Baby Spice, Desperado, BeautyAndTheBeast)

fuzzybutternut - 2 (thezmon221, Oversoul)
Oversoul - 1 (Kublai Khan)
Om the Destroyer - 1 (fuzzybutternut)
BeautyAndTheBeast - 1 (Nero Cain)
Thor665 - 1 (Slandaar)
ArcAngel9 - 1 (Bacde)

Not Voting - 4 (Hanzo_5, EddieFenix, Amethyst Kitty, PeregrineV)

With

24

players alive, it's

13

to lynch.

If deadline were to hit now, Desperado would be lynched.

New deadline is Tuesday, May 28th, @ 12:30 PM PST, which is in (expired on 2013-05-28 12:31:59).

At least half of the Amethyst Kitty hydra is V/LA until Tuesday, May 21st.
Nero Cain is V/LA until Thursday, May 23rd.
fuzzybutternut is V/LA until Thursday, May 23rd.
Seeking a Hanzo_5 replacement now.

Spoiler: changes from last official votecount

Spoiler: Player Vote History

Spoiler: Voting History

thezmon221 · Post Post #2151 (ISO) » Tue May 21, 2013 9:56 am

Confirmation bias itself, I will agree with Bulb, generally pertains to the fact that the person committing confirmation bias (in this case, Nacho) is town, since generally scum doesn't need to fit the read to a case as they know your alignment. Due to this, it seemed that you submitted to him being town in this instance with the belief of his confirmation bias.

Seanald · Post Post #2152 (ISO) » Tue May 21, 2013 10:06 am

In post 2146, Bulbazak wrote:Except scum's objective is to get mislynches, which means they are not going into it with preconceived conclusions, since they already know the other person's alignment and don't have to try to guess it. It is only confirmation bias if that person does not know the other one's alignment and then proceeds to fit evidence to a preconceived conclusion. That's the difference. If you believe someone to be scum, you don't say that they are suffering from confirmation bias, because that would be impossible. The only way you say that is if you believe the person doing the tunneling is town. Therefore, you saying that Nacho is suffering from confirmation bias belies a belief or knowledge that he's town, and the only faction that would have such alignment knowledge would be scum. Appearance has nothing to do with it. This has to do with the way YOU are reading the game, and you have displayed foreknowledge of Nacho's alignment being town, which means you are scum and scumslipped.

Scumslips don't exist 9 out of 10 times and I think your reaching pretty bad.

Bacde · Post Post #2153 (ISO) » Tue May 21, 2013 11:30 am

In post 2148, thezmon221 wrote:So why do/did you think Despo is/was scummy?

the vote had more to do with thinking nacho was kinda townie

honestly at this point I don't care who we lynch out of nacho/despo/AA9

I'd most prefer AA9 though

Slandaar · Post Post #2154 (ISO) » Tue May 21, 2013 12:26 pm

Lynch Thor

Trust me; hes scum.

Bacde · Post Post #2155 (ISO) » Tue May 21, 2013 12:39 pm

I'm down to lynch thor and he is probably scum

but AA9 has a bacde-guarantee to flip scum

Baby Spice · Post Post #2156 (ISO) » Tue May 21, 2013 1:00 pm

I personally wonder how much Mastin pointing out the deadline lynch ruling contributed to Bacde's change of vote and softening of his Nacho scumon.

Bacde · Post Post #2157 (ISO) » Tue May 21, 2013 1:05 pm

In post 2156, Baby Spice wrote:I personally wonder how much Mastin pointing out the deadline lynch ruling contributed to Bacde's change of vote and softening of his Nacho scumon.

me too

probably not that much

but it had an effect on where I wanted my vote to be

Bacde · Post Post #2158 (ISO) » Tue May 21, 2013 1:05 pm

wait, you are scum aren't you?

why do I humor scum

thezmon221 · Post Post #2159 (ISO) » Tue May 21, 2013 1:06 pm

In post 2153, Bacde wrote:
In post 2148, thezmon221 wrote:So why do/did you think Despo is/was scummy?
the vote had more to do with thinking
nacho was kinda townie

honestly at this point
I don't care who we lynch out of nacho
/despo/AA9

I'd most prefer AA9 though

Does anybody else see the problem with the bolded? Bacde, why would you be okay with lynching someone you think is townie?

Nachomamma8 · Post Post #2160 (ISO) » Tue May 21, 2013 1:06 pm

In post 2156, Baby Spice wrote:I personally wonder how much Mastin pointing out the deadline lynch ruling contributed to Bacde's change of vote and softening of his Nacho scumon.

Baby Spice, how did my ISO reading go?

Baby Spice · Post Post #2161 (ISO) » Tue May 21, 2013 1:16 pm

Quite well.

But then I was reading you Nacho with regard to Bacde, looking for things to make me think I was wrong, or for changes to reflect/predict Bacde's changes in his opinion of Nacho.

Found neither.

Bacde · Post Post #2162 (ISO) » Tue May 21, 2013 1:25 pm

In post 2159, thezmon221 wrote:
In post 2153, Bacde wrote:
In post 2148, thezmon221 wrote:So why do/did you think Despo is/was scummy?
the vote had more to do with thinking
nacho was kinda townie

honestly at this point
I don't care who we lynch out of nacho
/despo/AA9

I'd most prefer AA9 though
Does anybody else see the problem with the bolded? Bacde, why would you be okay with lynching someone you think is townie?

the word "had" implies the past

yesterday (during the past) I was thinking nacho seemed more townie

today (the present) I'm more in between

so nacho is on my lynch list but not necessarily at the top

BeautyAndTheBeast · Post Post #2163 (ISO) » Tue May 21, 2013 1:28 pm

In post 2146, Bulbazak wrote:
In post 2142, Desperado wrote: Both town and scum can approach an engagement with a preconceived conclusion and then fit the evidence to their conclusion. Do you all seriously dispute this?
Except scum's objective is to get mislynches, which means they are not going into it with preconceived conclusions, since they already know the other person's alignment and don't have to try to guess it. It is only confirmation bias if that person does not know the other one's alignment and then proceeds to fit evidence to a preconceived conclusion. That's the difference. If you believe someone to be scum, you don't say that they are suffering from confirmation bias, because that would be impossible. The only way you say that is if you believe the person doing the tunneling is town. Therefore, you saying that Nacho is suffering from confirmation bias belies a belief or knowledge that he's town, and the only faction that would have such alignment knowledge would be scum. Appearance has nothing to do with it. This has to do with the way YOU are reading the game, and you have displayed foreknowledge of Nacho's alignment being town, which means you are scum and scumslipped.

or it means that he doesn't understand the application of the term like I said.

anyways desperado you don't have to sell the os lynch to me I am ready to vote him off of that one post plus he isn't doing much in this gamthe case needs to be sold to everybody else

nacho, spice girl made one good post early in the game and hasn't done a thing since. null for me

Nachomamma8 · Post Post #2164 (ISO) » Tue May 21, 2013 1:30 pm

In post 2161, Baby Spice wrote:Quite well.

But then I was reading you Nacho with regard to Bacde, looking for things to make me think I was wrong, or for changes to reflect/predict Bacde's changes in his opinion of Nacho.

Found neither.

What do you think about my argument about Desperado?
What do you think of the massclaim argument?
What do you think about the meta feel?
Why have you decided to flop onto me?

Baby Spice · Post Post #2165 (ISO) » Tue May 21, 2013 2:05 pm

1. I'll decide after you flip scum. *
2. Doesn't matter.
3. There are very few players I think I can properly meta. You are not one of them. True for most of the players actually. Bacde's meta case, however, felt like absolute rubbish. Like a fake reason to vote you, eventually provided after many, many posts of saying that you were scum.
4. I didn't decide to 'flop' on you. I voted you because Bacde made a bad bussing a partner joke, which he has only done before while scum bussing a partner. If I was a vig I'd shoot one of you. If there was a wagon on Bacde I'd be voting him. But there is one on you so you first.

* I'm not understanding the Desperado case at all. In fact I'm hard pressed to think if a proper one was actually presented. It feels more like a counter wagon to Nacho now that the deadline is getting close. Added to the highest wagon dies at deadline thing.

It was also something that seemed to happen quickly after Mastin's post, which also engenders not good thoughts about it.
In fact iirc, someone voted saying that the reason would come later. I don't think it ever did.
Someone else voted in what looked like a weird change of opinion, in which the only comment seemed to be on me quoting the Eagles.

BeautyAndTheBeast · Post Post #2166 (ISO) » Tue May 21, 2013 2:36 pm

I got a crazy idea; lets lynch Nero.

VOTE: Nero Cain

Bulbazak · Post Post #2167 (ISO) » Tue May 21, 2013 3:28 pm

In post 2147, Desperado wrote:You have admitted that this is a matter of word choice, that even though I am
telling you that in my understanding, using confirmation bias and summily tunneling someone are the same thing when everyone must appear town
, I am scum because I said confirmation bias and not scummily tunneling.

But it is word choice crucial in presenting your perception of events and alignments. Instead of saying that Nacho was scum that was tunneling you, you instead said he was succumbing to confirmation bias, which betrays a perception of Nacho as town, which contradicts everything you've said.

In post 2148, thezmon221 wrote:I know I personally have been able to deduce in an argument I am in that a person has succumbed to confirmation bias when I am town. Just because he says that Nacho is succumbed to such doesn't entirely mean that Despo is scum. While the part where he flipped his read on Nacho is scummy itself, the confirmation bias point simply is weak.

That's the point that I've been trying to make. Saying that someone has succumbed to confirmation bias means that you perceive them as town. That flip from Nacho-scum to Nacho-town is what is scummy. And since Desperado continues to claim Nacho-scum, it shows that the confirmation bias perception of Nacho-town was a slip of alignment knowledge on Desperado's part.

In post 2151, thezmon221 wrote:Confirmation bias itself, I will agree with Bulb, generally pertains to the fact that the person committing confirmation bias (in this case, Nacho) is town, since generally scum doesn't need to fit the read to a case as they know your alignment. Due to this, it seemed that you submitted to him being town in this instance with the belief of his confirmation bias.

Exactly this.

In post 2163, BeautyAndTheBeast wrote: or it means that he doesn't understand the application of the term like I said.

That is assuming that Desperado is ignorant town unwilling to learn about what certain terminology means. However, I believe the opposite. These posts fit with the pattern that he's established of arguing a point into the ground in an attempt to find any little way to discredit the opposing argument. His points in these cases never change, even if they've been disproven. It seems to be a way to turn the argument into pure noise so that town stops paying attention, and in so doing, discredit the argument itself and make it go away. As such, I believe that I've explained my points as well as I can, and I'm going to attempt to move on. If he wants to actually discuss the merits of the case and/or bring up something new concerning the current one, then I will engage, but if he is just going to run the same old points into the ground, I, as well as the town, am better off ignoring him.

In post 2152, Seanald wrote: Scumslips don't exist 9 out of 10 times and I think your reaching pretty bad.

How am I reaching? Can you not see the point I have been making? And if so, what is bad about it? Also, how about you join us and give your own thoughts and opinions on what's happening, instead of taking potshots from the sidelines.

CrashTextDummie · Post Post #2168 (ISO) » Tue May 21, 2013 3:38 pm

I had a crazy extended weekend, fell way behind and only got to skim the last 20 pages or so. The following are mostly surface observations I'm going to investigate more fully tomorrow when I should have time:

Desperado comes out way ahead in the Nacho/Desperado argument, and I don't see any appeal to the Desperado wagon other than it being the most viable counter-wagon to Nacho's. It's backloaded with townreads, which makes me want to check how well those hold up on a reread. Thor's bulk of contribution is most fresh in my mind and didn't really give me cause for concern, and his reasoning for voting Desp is up-front and feels right. Om/Destroyer is the only player apart from Bacde who moved Nacho -> Desperado, and rather suddenly at that. ArcAngel9's big analysis post has problems (her respective attacks against OS and Red Ryu being the most serious: She suspects OS for defending Ryu who she calls "null as any other lurker" only to turn around and vote Red Ryu basically for said lurking) and her vote was pure OMGUS. Bulbazak's vote felt more sheepish to me than I think he wanted it to look. Need to figure out to which extent I'm being paranoid about these three.

Nacho wagon looks pretty dead right now, and based on what I've gathered, I think that's too bad. My biggest issue, his push against Desperado, still dominates his play, though to an extent, I think that's to be expected regardless of his alignment, once Desp emerged as a viable counter wagon. Skimming lends itself to confirmation bias, so I definitely need to take a closer look (particularly with an eye to his non-Desperado related activities), but the general feeling is that his wagon is still good. His flip would also help a great deal in getting a better grasp on a whole swath of players.

Mostly liked Kublai Khan's entry into the game, and he makes me want to revisit OS. I missed that he softclaimed again. Fuzzy also kind of softclaimed, but I wasn't as bothered by it because it fits the general pattern of a player who wants a chance to play the game and for some reason hasn't found the time or energy to do so until now. He's no worse to me than Seanald. Thezmon has yet to explain why he has the latter as null if he takes so much offense with the former's lack of contribution. OS is limply pressure voting. Both are scum reads to varying degrees. Means fuzzy can be town.

Cephrir's AA9 meta tell fell extremely flat. He cited meta reasons for suspecting AA9, but wasn't willing to share them when specifically asked because he hadn't seen enough to confirm a pattern (on page 55 of the game). He then eased up on her (stating that he still suspected her, but was going to give her a pass because her play was "typical") and then moved her into solid town after her big analysis post because it turns out

that

was his meta tell ("she's more thoughtful and posts more and better reads as town that go against the grain"). I've already pointed out that her thoughtfulness can be questioned, but regardless of how you read her analysis post, Cephrir's stance on her feels fabricated to me. The whole "I've found something meaningful, but I'm not going to share" spiel is most commonly a scum ploy, and the payoff in this case was particularly weak.

I'm not sure what's going on with Bacde, and I don't think it's fruitful to try to find out.

I think that should suffice as a "don't replace me" post. I'll have more tomorrow.

Nachomamma8 · Post Post #2169 (ISO) » Tue May 21, 2013 4:09 pm

In post 2165, Baby Spice wrote:* I'm not understanding the Desperado case at all. In fact I'm hard pressed to think if a proper one was actually presented. It feels more like a counter wagon to Nacho now that the deadline is getting close. Added to the highest wagon dies at deadline thing.

This alone tells me that you didn't read my ISO.

In post 2165, Baby Spice wrote:I didn't decide to 'flop' on you. I voted you because Bacde made a bad bussing a partner joke, which he has only done before while scum bussing a partner. If I was a vig I'd shoot one of you. If there was a wagon on Bacde I'd be voting him. But there is one on you so you first.

In post 96, Bacde wrote:lol @ people townreading me for claiming scum

Town
Kise
BBMolla
Zang (Probably)

Probably Bacde's scum partners
Majiffy (chainsaw defense w/ toasty sheep)
Ms Marangal
Svenstagel stahl
Toasty (obv chainsaw defense)

It feels that you found an instance of Bacde saying that he was bussing his scum partners when he actually was (and even that was a shitty fit) since that took me literally two minutes. If you don't meta people normally, why did you meta Bacde? He made that bussing joke a really long time ago.

<<< It would appear double-posting happens to even the best of us. Deleted the duplicate. >>>

EddieFenix · Post Post #2170 (ISO) » Tue May 21, 2013 4:21 pm

In post 2165, Baby Spice wrote:1. I'll decide after you flip scum. *
2. Doesn't matter.
3. There are very few players I think I can properly meta. You are not one of them. True for most of the players actually. Bacde's meta case, however, felt like absolute rubbish. Like a fake reason to vote you, eventually provided after many, many posts of saying that you were scum.
4. I didn't decide to 'flop' on you. I voted you because Bacde made a bad bussing a partner joke, which he has only done before while scum bussing a partner. If I was a vig I'd shoot one of you. If there was a wagon on Bacde I'd be voting him. But there is one on you so you first.

* I'm not understanding the Desperado case at all. In fact I'm hard pressed to think if a proper one was actually presented. It feels more like a counter wagon to Nacho now that the deadline is getting close. Added to the highest wagon dies at deadline thing.

It was also something that seemed to happen quickly after Mastin's post, which also engenders not good thoughts about it.
In fact iirc, someone voted saying that the reason would come later. I don't think it ever did.
Someone else voted in what looked like a weird change of opinion, in which the only comment seemed to be on me quoting the Eagles.

I know I saw where Thor said he was voting strictly to jump on the counter wagon on Desp.

In post 2102, Oversoul wrote:
In post 2073, Bulbazak wrote:Oversoul: His play has just felt fake. His informed townie claim was a lie, which he later admitted to, and he contradicted himself on the reasons why he claimed. He said he did it for reactions, and then he isn't able to judge any of the reactions? But what really gets me is how often he backpedals. I mean, seriously, go back and read his ISO. It's backpedal central in there.
Obviously.

I'm on a bike.

We need to stop arguing over theory and just lynch people. This game is getting too long and it is killing activity.

We should be killing fuzzy because of his play and most importantly because of his V/LA comments that are entirely emotional when there was no need and also sarcastic when there was no need.

He is trying to feign his town self.

Woah woah woah!! While I agree with Fuzzy feigning town and not giving anything good... Going gung ho and lynching with activity being good right now is not something we need to do. Let's draw it out and get as much info as possible.

Bacde, you're giving me whiplash...

Baby Spice · Post Post #2171 (ISO) » Tue May 21, 2013 4:33 pm

I tend to always check jokes like that. Especially when they are followed by bussing type behaviour.
Just because people can't do it, is not a reason to not try is it?
It's not a meta arguement.
I found that previous instance quite a while ago but I was hoping your lynch would go through and when you flipped scum I could bring it up D2 and get your buddy more easily. Since it looks like that lynch is not going to happen, I mentioned it.

Nachomamma8 · Post Post #2172 (ISO) » Tue May 21, 2013 4:35 pm

Did you notice the post I quoted? Bacde town or scum?

Baby Spice · Post Post #2173 (ISO) » Tue May 21, 2013 4:51 pm

Are you being deliberately thick or insulting Nacho?
No really I want to know.

Bcause saying I want to also lynch your buddy in my previous post, saying that I would hapily vote or vig (if I could) you or Bacde in the post before, etc.
makes me wonder if you are being thick or insulting on purpose for asking such a question.

Nachomamma8 · Post Post #2174 (ISO) » Tue May 21, 2013 4:52 pm

In #2170, I quoted a post by Bacde from a different game. Was he town or scum?
And please, let's not get to the discrediting part of this read yet. That happens after I'm pushing you as scum and calling out your buddies as you go down.