NY 164: Maniacal Street Mafia (Anticlimatically finished.)

Desperado · Post Post #2125 (ISO) » Tue May 21, 2013 7:20 am

It isn't a potshot, it's the truth.

Bulbazak · Post Post #2126 (ISO) » Tue May 21, 2013 7:55 am

In post 2117, Desperado wrote: Please tell me more about how scum can't interpret events in a biased way.

This just tells me that you aren't even reading what I'm saying and are just trying to discredit the argument. The point is that scum don't suffer from confirmation bias, because they KNOW who is not on their team (confirmation bias depends on not knowing). Ergo, they know who is not scum. Therefore, any tunneling they do is driven by a scum desire for a mislynch and not confirmation bias.

In post 2123, Desperado wrote: that you could sprinkle in some surefire towntells (confirmation bias!) on

What?

Desperado · Post Post #2127 (ISO) » Tue May 21, 2013 8:07 am

In post 2126, Bulbazak wrote:This just tells me that you aren't even reading what I'm saying and are just trying to discredit the argument. The point is that scum don't suffer from confirmation bias, because they KNOW who is not on their team (confirmation bias depends on not knowing). Ergo, they know who is not scum. Therefore, any tunneling they do is driven by a scum desire for a mislynch and not confirmation bias.

No, I'm reading what you are saying, and my response is that it's simplistic. Tunnelling driven by a scum desire for a mislynch and confirmation bias are not mutually exclusive, and it's just weird that you think they are. Are you saying it would be difficult (impossible?) to fake confirmation bias? Because I think it would actually be pretty fucking easy.

Desperado · Post Post #2128 (ISO) » Tue May 21, 2013 8:09 am

And what do you mean, what? No one is disputing my claim that Nacho is employing confirmation bias in his approach to me. In fact, you are saying I scumslipped by saying that Nacho is steeped in confirmation bias because only town can use it. Ergo, confirmation bias is a surefire towntell. What's confusing?

thezmon221 · Post Post #2129 (ISO) » Tue May 21, 2013 8:18 am

In post 2038, Nachomamma8 wrote:
In post 2032, thezmon221 wrote:
In post 1996, Syryana wrote:Peditx4: A bolded word?! Are we fucking serious here?!?!? No, just no. And #1993 is opportunistic as fuck.
It's too bad I had no intentions of hopping on the wagon anyway. Just a little input in a slightly more in-depth manner. I still don't really buy the Nacho case anyway.
Wait, you were serious with this?

Yeah. I didn't like the case that others put up, and then I went through your ISO at least three times and still didn't find something to satisfy me. In the end, I felt that your later posts also made up for the massclaim stuff, which honestly wasn't too strong to begin with.

In post 2054, Bacde wrote:hey guys lets unvote nacho and lynch desp plz

ok thanks

What... the hell... happened...?

First you were tunneling Nacho hardcore, which was evident by the fiasco where you missed OS saying he fake-claimed his role. And now you're flipping ship and voting for an effective counter-wagon?

Man, I'm really getting doubts about your tunneling motivation before.

@Bulb: Do you have more than the confirmation bias point? I think that's pretty weak.

@Whoever hasn't given a reason: Why are you on the wagon? Even sheeping would be a reason.

BeautyAndTheBeast · Post Post #2130 (ISO) » Tue May 21, 2013 8:20 am

In post 2125, Desperado wrote:It isn't a potshot, it's the truth.

desperado I want you to listen to me. if we vote nacho it will be to save nacho. it is not because nacho is my friend and you aren't, it is because I know his skill level and I trust it to work towards a town wc and I don't know yours. right now you are flailing but it looks like town flail not scum flail and the indignation that you are getting lynched when at the core of it it looks you are just feeling left out and slightly bitter about it reads as genuine. to me you read as town but I will compromise on a lynch in order to save nacho and I am sorry if that bothers you.

here is my dilemma: I am looking at our town list and I am not sure if I see any potential solid coordination to lynch oversoul (cos that is who I would prefer right now). bulb has no idea what he is looking at when he is reading my posts, bc might go for it, syrlacious maybe, not sure about thor, seanalderina maybe, nero probably not, cephir maybe, fuzzy will just be glad it is anyone but him lol, slaandy will do his own thing, I might be able to convince ak to bus him cos they are now committed with their read on us, kubbles doesn't know me and everybody else is just lollygagging about I mean I want to help but I am just not quite seeing how I can.

look at your reaction to town coming together and then look at overlysoul's reaction and see how they are different,

look at the motivation behind the 2 reactions and see how they are different

. you want to avoid getting lynched then help me drum up some overlysoul business.

I am not good at making cases that is not what makes me a decent mafia player it is that I know how to find and coordinate with town I can do this fast and early with players that I am familiar with as long as I can keep my balance early in a game. when I get knocked off balance it takes me a long time to recover.

but anyways if you are town and you don't want to get lynched then stop flailing cos a lot of people on this site don't know how to tell the difference between scum flail and town flail they just think that all flailing is scummy and help me build a case on oversoul.

mastin2 · Post Post #2131 (ISO) » Tue May 21, 2013 8:23 am

Less than three hours.
LESS THAN THREE HOURS.
Since last votecount.

And we have a Brand new page.

Forty-second Votecount

:

(

AKA, the "Current posting rate averages 8 pages a day" votecount

)

Desperado - 8 (Nachomamma8, Syryana, Cephrir, Om the Destroyer, ArcAngel9, Bacde, Thor665, Bulbazak)

Nachomamma8 - 6 (Red Ryu, Seanald, CrashTextDummie, Baby Spice, Desperado, BeautyAndTheBeast)

fuzzybutternut - 2 (thezmon221, Oversoul)
Oversoul - 1 (Kublai Khan)
Om the Destroyer - 1 (fuzzybutternut)
BeautyAndTheBeast - 1 (Nero Cain)
Thor665 - 1 (Slandaar)

Not Voting - 4 (Hanzo_5, EddieFenix, Amethyst Kitty, PeregrineV)

With

24

players alive, it's

13

to lynch.

If deadline were to hit now, Desperado would be lynched.

New deadline is Tuesday, May 28th, @ 12:30 PM PST, which is in (expired on 2013-05-28 12:31:59).

At least half of the Amethyst Kitty hydra is V/LA until Tuesday, May 21st.
Nero Cain is V/LA until Thursday, May 23rd.
fuzzybutternut is V/LA until Thursday, May 23rd.
Seeking a Hanzo_5 replacement now.

Spoiler: changes from last official votecount

Spoiler: Player Vote History

Spoiler: Voting History

BeautyAndTheBeast · Post Post #2132 (ISO) » Tue May 21, 2013 8:30 am

In post 2126, Bulbazak wrote:
In post 2117, Desperado wrote: Please tell me more about how scum can't interpret events in a biased way.
This just tells me that you aren't even reading what I'm saying and are just trying to discredit the argument. The point is that scum don't suffer from confirmation bias, because they KNOW who is not on their team (confirmation bias depends on not knowing). Ergo, they know who is not scum. Therefore, any tunneling they do is driven by a scum desire for a mislynch and not confirmation bias.

In post 2123, Desperado wrote: that you could sprinkle in some surefire towntells (confirmation bias!) on
What?

desperado do you understand what bulb is saying here cos is making a very good point. it is just that I think you don't understand how confirmation bias works cos you haven't demonstrated so far that you have. I think you just don't know what it means.

mastin2 · Post Post #2133 (ISO) » Tue May 21, 2013 8:35 am

Side-note, I did a calculation. Day One started in post 201. We're at 2133 as of this post. Doing the math, we're only a couple pages short of being among the longest day ones ever. (What is it with Mastin games and being the longest?

) It'd take breaking 1980, and we're at just over 1930.

Knowing you guys, we'll easily make that record without trying.

Butyeah, I guess that's something to be proud of--you guys are certainly active.

thezmon221 · Post Post #2134 (ISO) » Tue May 21, 2013 8:37 am

In post 2133, mastin2 wrote:Side-note, I did a calculation. Day One started in post 201. We're at 2133 as of this post. Doing the math, we're only a couple pages short of being among the longest day ones ever. (What is it with Mastin games and being the longest? ) It'd take breaking 1980, and we're at just over 1930.

Then I get to be a part of both the longest AND second longest games!

And I played that game with you, too...

<<< Among the longest, not THE longest.

We'd need 1990 to beat Phables Death Note which is #5. To secure the #1 spot would take ~6 pages more than that, which right now would mean ~8 pages needed to beat out Street Racers.
Which, mind you, given current activity and the deadline being a week away, is not out of the question.

>>>

Nachomamma8 · Post Post #2135 (ISO) » Tue May 21, 2013 8:37 am

And me!

Nachomamma8 · Post Post #2136 (ISO) » Tue May 21, 2013 8:38 am

In post 2129, thezmon221 wrote:Yeah. I didn't like the case that others put up, and then I went through your ISO at least three times and still didn't find something to satisfy me. In the end, I felt that your later posts also made up for the massclaim stuff, which honestly wasn't too strong to begin with.

I was referring mostly to the "why would he unbold something that he can't hide?" bit earlier. I assumed it was a joke, but others thought not.

thezmon221 · Post Post #2137 (ISO) » Tue May 21, 2013 8:45 am

Oh yeah, you were there too. Sorry I forgot

Nachomamma8 wrote:
In post 2129, thezmon221 wrote:Yeah. I didn't like the case that others put up, and then I went through your ISO at least three times and still didn't find something to satisfy me. In the end, I felt that your later posts also made up for the massclaim stuff, which honestly wasn't too strong to begin with.
I was referring mostly to the "why would he unbold something that he can't hide?" bit earlier. I assumed it was a joke, but others thought not.

I wasn't overly serious; it was more speculation than anything else. Something about me is that I think out loud a lot, and that was one of the instances where I didn't entirely support the argument, but I contemplated why it would happen out loud. Now, I didn't try what you said where you quoted it and instant replied or whatever, but I kind of assumed it didn't work. It merely was that is seemed strange to me why you would decide to unbold a word which added emphasis where if one were to do an ISO of you, they would be more prone to avoiding such an instance.

Bulbazak · Post Post #2138 (ISO) » Tue May 21, 2013 8:52 am

In post 2127, Desperado wrote: No, I'm reading what you are saying, and my response is that it's simplistic. Tunnelling driven by a scum desire for a mislynch and confirmation bias are not mutually exclusive, and it's just weird that you think they are. Are you saying it would be difficult (impossible?) to fake confirmation bias? Because I think it would actually be pretty fucking easy.

You're missing my point. This is about you claiming that Nacho has confirmation bias, instead of just saying that he is scummily tunneling you. Your assertion of this signifies that you either believe Nacho is town, which you deny, or that you KNOW Nacho is town, which would be a scum slip. Nacho, therefore, cannot fake your read of him having confirmation bias, unless you're also claiming that he can also control your mind.

In post 2128, Desperado wrote:And what do you mean, what? No one is disputing my claim that Nacho is employing confirmation bias in his approach to me. In fact, you are saying I scumslipped by saying that Nacho is steeped in confirmation bias because only town can use it. Ergo, confirmation bias is a surefire towntell. What's confusing?

Again, saying Nacho is suffering from confirmation bias belies your actual read or knowledge of Nacho's alignment, much in the same way as claiming someone is chainsaw defending belies a scum read on that person and the one they are defending. Therefore, it is not a towntell you can fake, as it has to first be interpreted as confirmation bias and not scummy tunneling.

In post 2129, thezmon221 wrote: @Bulb: Do you have more than the confirmation bias point? I think that's pretty weak.

How is that weak? Desperado implied knowledge of Nacho being town when he said Nacho was suffering from confirmation bias. Since he has said that he thinks that Nacho is scum, this can only mean that Desperado scum slipped when trying to discredit Nacho's push, and has thereby confirmed Nacho to be town. Ergo, Desperado is scum. How is that hard to understand?

Nachomamma8 · Post Post #2139 (ISO) » Tue May 21, 2013 8:52 am

In post 2137, thezmon221 wrote:I wasn't overly serious; it was more speculation than anything else. Something about me is that I think out loud a lot, and that was one of the instances where I didn't entirely support the argument, but I contemplated why it would happen out loud. Now, I didn't try what you said where you quoted it and instant replied or whatever, but I kind of assumed it didn't work. It merely was that is seemed strange to me why you would decide to unbold a word which added emphasis where if one were to do an ISO of you, they would be more prone to avoiding such an instance.

Alright.

Desperado · Post Post #2140 (ISO) » Tue May 21, 2013 8:59 am

@ B&TB:

The three best points of argument for OSscum are:

- He designed and executed a gambit that yielded nothing, despite clearly being invested in it and his early posturing immediately after claiming the gambit ("My claim was a gambit. I am not an informed townie. I made that claim because I wanted to see the reactions and judge whether or not anyone would jump down my throat to get me lynched for it and so far only Nacho really committed that crime...)
- The reads he does give from his gambit are largely useless and, ultimately, ignored. He specifically mentions fuzzy, cephrir, and yourself as potential scum candidates based on their reaction to his claim, but...keeps his vote parked on Red Ryu all the way from #202 through his 2nd attempt to analyze his gambit in #1572 , after which he votes...Nacho. I expect a townie to be more judicious with his vote, especially when they claim to have done something specifically designed to catch scum, identify potential candidates for said caught scum, and then ignore those people with his vote.
- Finally, that 2nd set of analysis was a copy/paste of his first version and, when questioned about it, he mentioned something about having multiple drafts and posting the wrong one. Yet when I asked him if he was going to post the final version what, presumably, would not have been a 1:1 rehash of his previous post, he...ignores it, and begins claiming to have lost interest in the game. But based on what he said, the final version should have already been written, right?

Nachomamma8 · Post Post #2141 (ISO) » Tue May 21, 2013 9:05 am

B&B, what do you think of Baby Spice?

Desperado · Post Post #2142 (ISO) » Tue May 21, 2013 9:08 am

In post 2132, BeautyAndTheBeast wrote:
In post 2126, Bulbazak wrote:
In post 2117, Desperado wrote: Please tell me more about how scum can't interpret events in a biased way.
This just tells me that you aren't even reading what I'm saying and are just trying to discredit the argument. The point is that scum don't suffer from confirmation bias, because they KNOW who is not on their team (confirmation bias depends on not knowing). Ergo, they know who is not scum. Therefore, any tunneling they do is driven by a scum desire for a mislynch and not confirmation bias.

In post 2123, Desperado wrote: that you could sprinkle in some surefire towntells (confirmation bias!) on
What?
desperado do you understand what bulb is saying here cos is making a very good point. it is just that I think you don't understand how confirmation bias works cos you haven't demonstrated so far that you have. I think you just don't know what it means.

If you read my ISO you will see that I have been continually mentioning that the way I'm using it is obviously not the same as Bulb/Ceph/Nacho understand it. If Nacho's goal as scum is to appear to be town and not get lynched, then it's ridiculous for anyone to say that a player exhibiting confirmation bias must be town, and that another player who calls attention to that confirmation bias scumslipped because I said he's using confirmation bias instead of calling him scum going for a ML, when those two acts are not mutually exclusive.

Both town and scum can approach an engagement with a preconceived conclusion and then fit the evidence to their conclusion. Do you all seriously dispute this?

Desperado · Post Post #2143 (ISO) » Tue May 21, 2013 9:12 am

In post 2138, Bulbazak wrote:You're missing my point. This is about you claiming that Nacho has confirmation bias, instead of just saying that he is scummily tunneling you. Your assertion of this signifies that you either believe Nacho is town, which you deny, or that you KNOW Nacho is town, which would be a scum slip. Nacho, therefore, cannot fake your read of him having confirmation bias, unless you're also claiming that he can also control your mind.

So this is a strict word choice issue? Had I called it scummily tunneling me what would your reaction to it have been?

Desperado · Post Post #2144 (ISO) » Tue May 21, 2013 9:13 am

My argument is that there is no functional difference between confirmation bias and scummily tunneling someone when the rules of the game dictate that everyone appear to be town in order to win.

Bacde · Post Post #2145 (ISO) » Tue May 21, 2013 9:22 am

actually

VOTE: AA9

since AA9 is definitely scum and I'm not sure I wanna follow nacho's read on desp

thezmon is giving me scummy vibes, here is my impression of his thought processes this game

thezmon: dude why are you tunneling nacho

bacde: (gives reasons)

thezmon: those reasons are good, but not quite good enough, do you have more?

bacde: (gives more reasons)

thezmon: ooh thats good, but I'm just not gonna place my vote there for some reason, I don't think the reasons are good enough

bacde unvotes nacho

thezmon: it doesn't make any sense that you unvoted nacho! Why would you unvote nacho if you had all those great reasons?
--
basically, why would someone who has been unwilling to vote nacho all game think that its weird that I pulled back on that push?
---
I realize this post focused on thezmon but AA9 is 100% scum so I'm willing to make this lynch here

Bulbazak · Post Post #2146 (ISO) » Tue May 21, 2013 9:23 am

In post 2142, Desperado wrote: Both town and scum can approach an engagement with a preconceived conclusion and then fit the evidence to their conclusion. Do you all seriously dispute this?

Except scum's objective is to get mislynches, which means they are not going into it with preconceived conclusions, since they already know the other person's alignment and don't have to try to guess it. It is only confirmation bias if that person does not know the other one's alignment and then proceeds to fit evidence to a preconceived conclusion. That's the difference. If you believe someone to be scum, you don't say that they are suffering from confirmation bias, because that would be impossible. The only way you say that is if you believe the person doing the tunneling is town. Therefore, you saying that Nacho is suffering from confirmation bias belies a belief or knowledge that he's town, and the only faction that would have such alignment knowledge would be scum. Appearance has nothing to do with it. This has to do with the way YOU are reading the game, and you have displayed foreknowledge of Nacho's alignment being town, which means you are scum and scumslipped.

Desperado · Post Post #2147 (ISO) » Tue May 21, 2013 9:34 am

In post 2146, Bulbazak wrote:
In post 2142, Desperado wrote: Both town and scum can approach an engagement with a preconceived conclusion and then fit the evidence to their conclusion. Do you all seriously dispute this?
Except scum's objective is to get mislynches, which means they are not going into it with preconceived conclusions, since they already know the other person's alignment and don't have to try to guess it. It is only confirmation bias if that person does not know the other one's alignment and then proceeds to fit evidence to a preconceived conclusion. That's the difference. If you believe someone to be scum, you don't say that they are suffering from confirmation bias, because that would be impossible. The only way you say that is if you believe the person doing the tunneling is town. Therefore, you saying that Nacho is suffering from confirmation bias belies a belief or knowledge that he's town, and the only faction that would have such alignment knowledge would be scum. Appearance has nothing to do with it. This has to do with the way YOU are reading the game, and you have displayed foreknowledge of Nacho's alignment being town, which means you are scum and scumslipped.

So what are you going to do when I flip town?

I'm trying my best to tell explain to you how I'm using the term, and you just don't want to hear it. If it serves everyone's wincon, town or scum, to appear town, and scum MUST secure mislynches, like you said, then the only way they can do that without garnering suspicion themselves is to secure a ML in a townie way. You have admitted that this is a matter of word choice, that even though I am

telling you that in my understanding, using confirmation bias and summily tunneling someone are the same thing when everyone must appear town

, I am scum because I said confirmation bias and not scummily tunneling.

thezmon221 · Post Post #2148 (ISO) » Tue May 21, 2013 9:40 am

In post 2138, Bulbazak wrote:
In post 2129, thezmon221 wrote:@Bulb: Do you have more than the confirmation bias point? I think that's pretty weak.
How is that weak? Desperado implied knowledge of Nacho being town when he said Nacho was suffering from confirmation bias. Since he has said that he thinks that Nacho is scum, this can only mean that Desperado scum slipped when trying to discredit Nacho's push, and has thereby confirmed Nacho to be town. Ergo, Desperado is scum. How is that hard to understand?

I know I personally have been able to deduce in an argument I am in that a person has succumbed to confirmation bias when I am town. Just because he says that Nacho is succumbed to such doesn't entirely mean that Despo is scum. While the part where he flipped his read on Nacho is scummy itself, the confirmation bias point simply is weak. Scum and town alike can come to the same conclusion. Scum are going to be more accurate, yes, because they know the alignments. However, a town can make the same conclusion if they are able to get into a third perspective of the argument, which is what a townie should be able to do in such an argument.

Bacde wrote:thezmon is giving me scummy vibes, here is my impression of his thought processes this game
thezmon: dude why are you tunneling nacho
bacde: (gives reasons)
thezmon: those reasons are good, but not quite good enough, do you have more?
bacde: (gives more reasons)
thezmon: ooh thats good, but I'm just not gonna place my vote there for some reason, I don't think the reasons are good enough
bacde unvotes nacho
thezmon: it doesn't make any sense that you unvoted nacho! Why would you unvote nacho if you had all those great reasons?
--
basically, why would someone who has been unwilling to vote nacho all game think that its weird that I pulled back on that push?

Note: Condensed to avoid unnecessary length in post.

1. This is a misrep. I told you that you had a few good reasons, but it wasn't enough to sway me. It appeared to me that you came to a sort of confirmation bias yourself, and that almost all of your play is on meta. The fact that you whored meta turned me off for half of your case. I did my own research, and I didn't think Nacho was scum.

2. Why the fuck is it scummy that I question you being flip-floppity in such a case? You hammer onto Nacho all game long going:
"NACHO IS SCUMSCUMSCUMSCUM! LYNCH HIM! LYNCH NACHO! NACHO ISN'T TOWN-NACHO, HE'S SCUM-NACHO!"

And then all of a sudden, when support for the Despo wagon is seemingly picking up you go:

"Guys, I don't want to lynch Nacho anymore. I think he's town and Despo's probably scummy."

You see, in such an instance of switching from Despo to AA9, it's not necessarily a scummy instance. But when you switched from Nacho to Despo in such a quick turnaround, you can bet it's scummy.

I went through an ISO of you looking for things on Despo, and here’s what I found:
Up to Post #1674: Brief mentions of Despo, but not much.
Post #1674: You look for a reason to take your vote off of Nacho and put it on Despo.
Post #1759: Completely back on the Nacho-Scum mentality, with no mention of Despo.
Post #2039: Next mention of Despo. As a vote. Very little indication of a waning read on Nacho, and absolutely no indication of a growth of interest in Despo.

So why do/did you think Despo is/was scummy?

Desperado · Post Post #2149 (ISO) » Tue May 21, 2013 9:46 am

In post 2148, thezmon221 wrote:I know I personally have been able to deduce in an argument I am in that a person has succumbed to confirmation bias when I am town. Just because he says that Nacho is succumbed to such doesn't entirely mean that Despo is scum.
While the part where he flipped his read on Nacho is scummy itself
, the confirmation bias point simply is weak. Scum and town alike can come to the same conclusion. Scum are going to be more accurate, yes, because they know the alignments. However, a town can make the same conclusion if they are able to get into a third perspective of the argument, which is what a townie should be able to do in such an argument.

Yes, thank you.

@ the bolded: When did my read flip on Nacho?