Two-Headed Mafia 2 - GAME OVER!

[ambic]

Has my partner showed up yet? If he has, then im voting whatever he is.

PS Hi from the gl, all the ex-GL mafia players here. I really must host Deep South IV on mafia scum sometime...

[ambic]

To my other Head - namely HyToFry - Shall we now bandwagon H2 da Tizzle/Themanhimself? Im not a big fan of drawn out Day 1s where not much is achieved, and the conversation and arguments are futile dice votes, OMGUS's and sheer randomness.

[ambic]

blatently wagon. Also for wanting a quick-lynch.

1. Yes
2. No

Seriously, what do we get from things like this...

Our vote looks fine to me, I got a good feeling it landed on scum; you have impeccable judgment, as usual. Just make sure you don't go staining the carpet, all we have around the house is Febreze.

pretty sure this is crap.

Can we get back to lynching glorkos?

Your defense of TSS/Yos2 is noted.

Plus a whole bunch of FOS's, and I see at least one dice vote without even looking for them.

We have a whole bunch of people showing their faces, pretending to look townlike (or genuinely being townlike, whichever), without saying anything. But day 1 is always like this. So I'm quite happy to fast bandwagon to get through the crap that flies around. Day Ones make mafia boring, because no one wants anything controversial. The controversy causer tends to get lynched. Anyone speculates about the setup - they "must" be scum. They get lynched. Etc. So yes, I will push for a fast day 1 so the game doesnt become boring. At the very least pressure can be applied and dissipate just as fast.

Now to my main point:
YES: Pretty sure ambic is well aware of being able to pm his partner.
YES: Pretty sure ambic is telling the town his opinions on things as well as talking to his partner.
--Not only this. If we all only talk to our partners the game will die on account of nothing to analyse. No one can be caught being scummy by not posting. Lynch the lurker will become our only method of finding scum and thats pretty worthless.
One of these: Pretty sure I could be wrong and ambic will enlighten us, or ignore us altogther.
YES: Pretty sure this is 'day 1 randomness.'

What I would most like to see in this game is some idea of speculation of traps/layout/gameplans. What am I very unlikely to see? Exactly that. The costs are high, and anyone pushing ideas day 1 tends to get lynched. So until the drabbery of Day 1 is over, I am happy with fast and furious so long as we gain good info and not all the postwasting "I LOVE U! PEACE, LOVE, AND DAISYS!" that does nothing for the game, and in fact makes sorting through to find scum harder.

[ambic]

In fact, I imagine you'll soon lament your request for more content from Mr. Jelly.

My disadvantage is that I dont know a lot of players here. Still the things that used to crucify GL games - I dunno - seem worse here. Just look at dragon mafia that ran for a day 1 month.

Dont expect consistency from me. I get lynched all the time for changing my mind and contradicting myself. At the very least im glad to have another head to scream WTF at me in AIM...

[ambic]

Pretty sure that I get lynched for my theories fairly consistently. Doesn't stop me though... :-p

[ambic]

HY, have the decency to check with me before voting

Unvote

I dont see any reason to vote Fritzler, let alone because he said Hi to me... and not my other head.

[ambic]

Can we have a vote count?

[ambic]

But this is like one of my first mafia games. I'm a n00b. Please don't hurt/lynch me.

What was the rule about "Lynch all Liars"? :-p

[ambic]

This game started at day. If we do no lynch, its not as bad as a game that started at night - and cops/vigs/docs/whatevers can draw upon the info that is available from the first 17+ pages of the game. Whether we lynch or not is going to be based on the continuation of one of the existing bandwagons or simply a falling away. This early in the game, the mafia are probably quite capable of deflecting the lynch to a bad one. Whichever. Its Oct 3 where I am, and nearing that deadline fast.

[ambic]

Incidentally Shadow Lurker - posting Red X's as rebuttals is fairly futile. Please actually argue...

[ambic]

Incidentally, I cannot think of a sane reason for scum to target Fritzler on account that even when he is town he inadvertently helps the mafia consistently. I have seen him, as a tracker, post the phrase ":knows stuff:" while starting a bandwagon that cost the town the game. He knew absolutely nothing, and was lying and or didnt know how a tracker role worked. Either way, I doubt the mafia or an SK would feel threatened by him. Ibby on the other hand is an unknown quatity to me, since I have only seen him/her on AIM chat - and I don't play on that often.

[ambic]

In any case, what are you trying to sugget with this post?

The above posts were arguing over Vig/Mafia/SK etc, and I was more alluding to the fact that its too early to base decisions on the death. I don't like spelling things out in posts because if I am right in any piece of reasoning then others should be able to see it as well.

[ambic]

We need to go somewhere...

Nightson, or whatever your name is...

Shall we vote?

[ambic]

Vote Re2Fan/eon

[ambic]

Im here. I wasnt sure what was going on with the site.

[ambic]

We are at 30 pages. The downtime wont have helped, but surely we have something somewhere that will help decide what a good lynch is...

[ambic]

Id be quite happy to go to night sometime soon. It might make it easier for this to kick off again on a fresh day.

[ambic]

Vote ChannelDelibird/Ziliy

They havent contributed anyhting this game. THe occasional post but otherwise both staying below the radar just a little too much.

[ambic]

(Ziliu)

[ambic]

I havent heard from my other head in a long while. I assume he is gone. I am happy to function on my own, so dont worry about a replacement...

Once we know who's playing, I'd like an honest opinion on something. Specifically how long this game day is going to last... If we collectively think its going to be a real long day, then I'm probably going to do an Internet Stranger and jump on the biggest bandwagon available at the time. There are enough people alive to make post hunting a real hassle, esp as I haven't any particular read on any player. I'm stating this early on so everyone is clear what I intend to do - ie not subtly...

I shall remain lurker voting for now.

[ambic]

Unvote; vote: Bogre/TMH

[ambic]

Unvote;Vote Adele/Pooky

[ambic]

And if we need replacements can we try call Hy back?

[ambic]

Since the post quoted above, amb has expressed no suspicions whatsoever.

How can I, and why would I... 1. THere is no one currently posting, and we arent far enough into the game to get a genuine feel for scummy voting patterns. 2. There is no guarantee the game is going to carry on in its present state. I don't want to see it abandoned, but the quality of play needs to go up. Why should I try to analyse every minute detail when there is every chance this game will die? I appreciate that that doesnt help the sitch.

We have 34 pages of pure dribble, and it seems to me that most mafia scum site games go this way. We need intelligent discussion and soon. In the interim, I think a reduced count of those alive will help focus, especially given the two dead cops. I would be happy with pretty much any lynch bar my own to reduce the scope needed to research. I dont want to reread 34 pages of nothingness until I have specific people to analyse.

Until then, I am IS style bandwaggoning, and the only way you are stopping me doing that is a) Lynching me or b) Coming up with a killer reason why I shouldnt just lynch the leader - and it had better be good...

[ambic]

You MOS have made 44 posts. Look how much of it is dribble? Let me quote some...

I'm here, but busy. Watching Kevin Smith movies all day
...
You called?
...
*zzZZzzZZzzIagreezzZZzzZZzz*
...
You have a lot to learn, young padawan. Attune yourself to the Force, you must.
...
aww shit.
...
Right-o

etc... Those are entire posts. And theres more. Yet this said you are better than most, but when most of the game is made up of post fillers, I don't see how I'm supposed to conclude anything. Anything I presume about who is scum has to be tempered by the fact that there isn't enough content to back me up. Thus without a bandwagon forming for very little reason, I'm not likely to be followed. TO make matters worse there isn't anyone I remotely feel is or isnt scum due to the posting quality.

[ambic]

Noted. I will take a reread myself and see if I can come up with anything.

[ambic]

Vote Pooky/Adele

I think it's already lynch, but just in case it's not...

[ambic]

Hmmm I thought I unvoted earlier, but obviously I didn't.

[ambic]

For better, for worse, these are my thoughts. I'm writing this as I go hoping a scum is hanging himself out to dry and hoping we don't notice. (Ignoring the one that already did)


1. Nightson/The Silent Speaker:

Nightson

: With the exception of today, Nightson hasnt posted any significant content at all. In four days he has made 3 votes of his own accord, and 1 FOS. It's not many, but I don't know what to make of that. It's suspicious to say the least. But I do note an apparent change of gear now the numbers are down, and I confess that is what I was waiting on.

The Silent Speaker

: He lives up to his name. 10 posts the whole game. I need to go back and determine when he replaced Armlx, because that will affect my opinion as to whether or not he is lurking.

Armlx

- Made a post about Re2 being most likely scum, but it was Day 1. Shinnanigans

2.Channel Delibird / Zindaras

Channel Delibird

: 11 posts all game. FOS'd me and Yosarian for blindly voting when the 3 votes he has made on his own accord seem much the same.

Zindaras

: Fished for claims in one post but easily explainable by circumstances. Said "I doubt that everything in the thread is useless, ambic, though I'll get to that when I reread it. Which I hope will be this week." but hasnt really backed that up [/hypocrite]

Ziliu

: 2 posts. Voted in one of them. No info can be easily gleaned here.

3. Cogito Ergo Sum / Mgm

Mgm

to me feels townie. I might be completely wrong, but I'll take that risk. I can assure you there is one game assumption he has gotten completely correct, but it's probably his modding experience telling him this and not inside information.

Cogito Ergo Sum

: FOSsed his own other head... Was this an accidental distancing manouevre from a fellow scum? I rescind my townieness assumption on Mgm. I just wonder if that was a Freudian slip or a genuine one. Its funny that his posts have a lot to do with another 'Freudian Slip' when he possibly made a doozy himself.
("I might kill Fritz, but not twice. " I certainly would kill Fritzler twice. I vowed that if I ever drew vig, I would vig him outright on account that his play is often very dangerous to to town. This is a style thing that he pushes because he likes being scum, and if it were too clear that he was enjoying himself in one game and not in another, then we would know when to lynch or not lynch)
CES's certainty vote on Pooky/Adele feels a bit like a fellow-scum vote too. In my mind I have a situation just like Courk wanted. What do you do when you feel one head is innocent and the other could well be scum... I don't really know why CES FOS'd Mgm.

4. Glork / Mastermind of Sinai
Claimed scum. Need I say more.

5.klebian/spectrumvoid
Heh - I got confused here. Klebian had a go at MOS and I was thinking MOS is the other head of Klebian... So hard to get it right...

Klebian

: 11 posts since replacing, but some with content backing me up about my MOS attack earlier. Not sure if that is a good thing or not, but will leave it for now.

SpectrumVoid

Voted me for wanting to bandwagon. I do this a lot, so Im fairly used to that reaction. Seems to be very sure that MOS/Glork is scum, but I don't know why. With 2 dead cops, there won't be any more (surely) so the info seems to either be non role related - or from another style (eg Watchman/tracker etc)


6.Lowell/Sprontalic

Lowell

: 6 posts to date, but a promise not to lurk. Lets see where that goes..

Sprontalic

: "Ambic 426: FOS you (Ambic) for even considering a no lynch. No lynch is always bad! " I am allowed to disagree, and believing something controversial does not make you scum. For the record you will always see me defend this as a tactic in all games. I have no read on Sprontalic though

7.MrBuddyLee/petroleumjelly

MrBuddyLee

: "You'd think someone as seemingly intelligent as him who wants to hold others to higher standards would himself be able to point to a few scum and why he believes they are so. " Youd think so, but I have found this game really hard going. It's amazing how much harder mafia is when you don't know your fellow players. So much meta-gaming... I do get a very slight feeling that MBL is tied to pooky, but its a vague gut feeling rather than anything I can pin.

PetroleumJelly

: Was waiting on my reread. I have now done this, and in my mind have picked out one very likely to be scum, and one certainty. The horrid or perhaps not so horrid thing is that the certainty is fingering the one the I think is likely - and that does bother me.

In answer to PJ:
>Amb, why did you never get back to us on your reread?
Honestly the size of the game daunted me, and the amount of "Whazzup" "ZzzZZZzzz" type contentless posts was putting me off immensely. I have now gritted my teeth and done a post analysis by reading all players posts together

>And how did you somehow forget that you were voting for Pooky/Adele before you tried to vote them again after they were already lynched?
I screwed up.

And bah - right as im finishing, I see Im missing some critical info about a claimed scum... Damnnabbit, who was it...

I find Glork's vote on CES very very interesting. It's almost like the claimed scum trying to distance a player. I don't know what to make of that.

Vote Glork

[ambic]

(Note the [/hypocrite] reference was self-referential. I am calling myself a hypocrite for picking another player up for the same 'crime' as me)

[ambic]

"In lightofmy post why do you believe voting Glork to be the optimal strategy? "

Because if I pushed for no lynch so the scum can try and attack each other, then 1. Everyone would hate me for it, and 2. It wouldn't work in this situation.

But Glork will try to mislead us away from his own mafia if he can. I have no knowledge of CES being scum with Glork. But I read CES FIRST, and concluded he was scum based on his posts. Then I read Glork the confessor, and I think it fair enough for me to assume that they are in the same team. I admit I didnt realise CES's FOS statement was a joke. My apologies for that.

I was half tempted to vote CES first and have Glork die overnight, but it seemed a risky plan because we dont know how big the mafia is, and it is best to get rid of a scum that we know is from a group.

[ambic]

"Would the game be balanced with a cult leader, a Glork+pooky+X scumteam , an amb SK, and 5-6 power roles?"

I think a 4 strong mafia is more likely. On the assumption that that is right, we MUST lynch scum today and Glork has given us that. But even then, we will have 6 alive at dawn and then the scum still win. I think the onus is on us now to find another mafia member before tomorrow. If we don't then I think the game is a foregone conclusion.

Unvote

We will and must lynch Glork. We must find 1 more scum from his team.

I don't have enough to work with on Nightson/TSS, CDB/Zindy, CES/MGM, Lowell/spront. Any of those teams could EASILY be scum. spront and mgm seemed modestly pro-town, but their posts have dropped off and I don't think a firm conclusion can be reached. If these people don't start posting, my brain will burst a blood vessel like it did in Jack of all Trades. Please don't let that happen.

Correct. We need these guys to post before we can make an informed decision. I did get a pro-town feeling from MGM. That is always dangerous

[ambic]

A vig claim would guarantee any "vig's" death overnight, unless you want someone to claim doctor as well? So I agree with PJ and whoever it was that said the vig should only claim if being voted. Forced or not, I would imagine a vig would be upset about hitting 2 cops randomly, whereas an SK would be rather happy.

The cult leader may be dangerous, but a potential scum group of 3 or 4 is more so. So the vote should still be the same result. MoS/Glork should die today. THe mafia will still have a decent chance of hitting cult leaders overnight anyways.

"A cult is a very real possibility": This will depend. THe mafia havent managed to nuke a single cult member to date, and we havent managed to lynch one. Either the 'cult' is very inactive in it's recruiting abilities, or we are very unlucky. 9 Deaths out of 17 players, that would make the cult so potentially big that it would be an all out Cult vs Mafia game. That doesn't appear to be the case. To me, I feel as though the whole cult thing is springing up from Glork's scum buddies (or being pushed along that line) to create confusion. And that is the risk we take by not lynching Glork outrightly. (DOn't get me wrong I'm not suggesting we don't do this). I see MGM is being credited by MrBuddyLee for MBL's theory that SV/Kleb are cult. I will try and go back later and see if I can see where and how that conclusion is made.

[ambic]

Vote Glork/Mastermind of Sin

Thats five. And Glork is right, this is an extremely spammy game. This day has definitely been the most enjoyable.

[ambic]

To think I was skeptical about there even being a cult...

[ambic]

The recruiter is dead. The cult is going to be how big - One - Two? The mafia will be 2 in size, down from an initial 4*. The cult won't be getting any bigger, especially with 2 killers on the loose.

I keep running through my mind the maths. Are we better to try and lynch mafia. Are we better to try and lynch the vig. Are we better to lynch the cult members. The cult does have a voting block power**, and as long as the vig is alive that can be controlled. And what happens in this situation if we no lynch? It could be down to 4 at dawn if we no lynch and be a mafia win? But equally the mafia could lose a critical member overnight, putting the game back in the balance.

For the moment, my vote will be :

Vote No Lynch

Because a pile up vote on the wrong player could be deadly.

Unless a cult member wants to confess a failed recruit attempt last night?

* Because 3 is too small and unlikely, and 5 would mean 3 alive now and the game is only at day because they have to find the other killer. In which case its going to be a no lynch or a townie lynch anyways.

** Unless there is only one cultist left, in which case they arent a concern at all. (1 single cultist can only tie with town, and will still lose to scum, in which case they will have to try and out the scum as best they can)

[ambic]

In that case, of the living, who is a likely target for Klebian to have gone for? Do cultists usually aim for players that they feel they are likely to get on with, or respect the game of?

[ambic]

Im going for 2 mafia. And I am thinking maybe we need to lynch one mafia today, so the two killers left after that can take each other out. If there is one mafia, then we eliminate a big threat as a bonus

2 Mafia
1 Other killer
2 Cult
1 Town

If we lynch mafia, we can then concentrate on killing the cult because the mafia will have to get him/herself down to the final 3 to win. In the process he is as likely to kill cult as anything else.

[ambic]

Is anyone like me thinking that Nightson/The Silent Speaker could be mafia? I've been reading through their posts this game, and in the last game day or so, I get a direct feeling they might be. It's not anything I can nail down - at least yet, but certainly seems worth pursuing.

[ambic]

Notice I didnt say anything about killing? We shouldnt ignore everyone else in the game just because 'we' intend to lynch cult. Figuring out who the mafia are sooner rather than later is still important, even if we decide not to lynch in that direction.

[ambic]

glorious townieness

I read that as glorkious townieness which is say very little townieness indeed....

[ambic]

I think the point has been argued well enough as why lynching cult is best in this situation - but the thing is, we don't actually know who the cultists are. So it would pay to look along that line for a while.

I did suspect CES/Mgm of being scum earlier, but have no feel for what type of scum.

How would we go about making sure we lynch correctly? The cultists are hardly going to play along that plan and like regular scum will be claiming town. And unlike scum, the cultists used to be town, so post analysis on anything but recent posts is next to useless.

[ambic]

I personally have no problem with mass claiming. Does this site support dice tags? (Not that I know how to use them)

[ambic]

I wasn't intending to just roll dice and then try and force people to claim on my say so.