Sotty7 wrote:Yeah if Quig can confirm/deny if he has the ability to cure the cult that would be good.
The reason I suggested that Der Hammer be lynched and not vigged is because of the possibility that he might kill Lloyd as someone trying to kill you certainly isn't a Friendly role.
At this point Lloyd is just as likely to shoot a pro-town role as he is a cult member.
Statisticaly
he's actually
more
likely to hit an innocent, assuming no more recruitment since BMQ's death. Under that assumption (which I'll address later), there are no more than two cultists running around somewhere within the choices of two vanilla townies, two claimed docs, Der Hammer's "HUNK", and Lloyd himself (as vig). That's two real targets -- possibly only one -- out of a potential five (assuming Lloyd isn't cult himself).
So basically, here are our choices as I see them, and under the assumptions of no more recruitment and no other killing roles but Lloyd (and DH if you want to be picky):
1) Lynch someone other than Lloyd and let him vig as he sees fit. Total of two deaths (one of which could still be Lloyd if DH is left alive and telling the truth AND Lloyd is killed for targeting him). Could potentially lead to two cultists vs. two townies on Day Four if both "miss"; not sure if that would be considered endgame in this scenario. OTOH, we could get lucky like we have been and lynch one cultist and watch Lloyd shotgun the other tonight, but I don't like the odds of that.
2) Lynch Lloyd. I fail to see what this will accomplish other than turning the game into a perpetual "Day One", as we will have most likely lost the only remaining role that could provide night-action information.
3) No-lynch, let Lloyd vig whomever he wants. Same as option one, but guarantees that there will be three pro-town roles alive on Day Four insted of the chance of two.
Unfortunately, none of these options seems particularly appealing to me. We have absolutely no way of knowing who is cult and who is not, and I'll be damned if I can even think of a way to
deduce
this if all six of us left standing started off as being pro-town. The best I can come up with is that Quig is most likley non-recruited if that's the night-immunity he mentioned. Everyone else is pretty much equally likely to be recruited, including me; Lloyd and Sotty get a
slightly
lower chance due to Quig's claimed protection, but that's not very comforting since the odds are good that BMQ never had his recruitments blocked. We do know that no other cultists have been killed, as Kelly Chen (Mafia Leader) was most likely immune and none of the other kills/lynches have had it mentioned in their deaths.
If the cult can still recruit without BMQ then things really get sticky. However, being able to do so would make them nearly
unstoppable
unless Quig can cure recruitment. For every one we manage to kill, they still would have had a chance at recruiting another -- including people already "cleared" -- thanks to the game starting at night.
On that subject, the reason you're still being suspected DH, is that we don't know if Quig can "cure" at all. You could have been recruited on Night One (as could anyone but Lloyd) or Two (as could anyone but Sotty) and no one would know.
I'm totally at a loss here.
In the beginning there was nothing, which exploded. -- Terry Pratchett, [u]Lords and Ladies[/u]