Mini 280 - Game Over

Passdog · Post Post #76 (isolation #0) » Fri Feb 10, 2006 10:42 am

Sorry all, I lost internet access for a while and then went back to college and have been way too busy. I am trying to slowly catch up with everything.

The person who strikes me as oddest is Fiasco. Overefensive much? One thing I have learnt in my limited experience of mafia is that the people who post a lot are one of two things: mafia trying to disseminate confusion and disinformation; or a townie doing the same by accident. Posting overmuch from a townie only allows the scum to hide between their posts.

Another thing that has annoyed me is that by basically stating that the next person to vote on him is scum, Fiasco has cleverly stalled the game. As he himself has stated there are six to lynch - in my mind that would make four the critical number not three.

In addition I believe a few here have stated that the best option for the town day one is to force a claim. If people actually believe this then why have they allowed Fiasco to deter them with his gibberish? If a claim is the way to go and a player is behaving scummy, then why not push for it?

vote Fiasco

Passdog · Post Post #86 (isolation #1) » Sat Feb 11, 2006 9:30 am

I am not voting Fiasco because he has a high post count.

I vote because his posts are cluttering the game, creating confusion and providing room for the mafia to hide in. That is in addition to your disproportionate defensive response to early votes on you.

With regard to the preferred posting habits of townies please refer to the mafiascum tactic guide.

Vote Stands

Passdog · Post Post #117 (isolation #2) » Wed Feb 15, 2006 11:46 am

Hey guys, I'm sorry I haven't been around. This last week has been pretty hectic. It's orientation week at my university and as President of my college I am busy organising events and ensuring freshers (sophomores?) make it to their classes and enrolment.

Mafia is kind of taking a backseat at the moment and I have been posting in the threads that I've read (because they're at the top of my 'Watched Topic' list). I'll try to do better.

Having done a re-read (and actually reading rather than skimming) I'm willing to admit that Fiasco has been posting content. So I'll concede that his posting has been of some worth. I don't however feel we have better leads so I am ging to leave my vote where it is to force a claim.

We need to garner information from somewhere, and at this stage I believe Fiasco is the right place to start.

The other point I would like to make is that I never take into account previous play styles. It is too convenient for a mafioso to say "I played in a certain way for x number of games therefore I am town now". A good player is consistent to the point that they act the same regardless of alignment. Even if the player is relatively new, bad play one game will generally teach them how to play well later.

Similarly I will never credit the "I'm a Newb" defense as it is all too easy to say. Even if you've only played once (or even never played) before it doesn't mean you haven't got a bit of skill. It's too easy to lie.
[/soapbox]

So

Passdog · Post Post #180 (isolation #3) » Sat Feb 18, 2006 6:01 pm

Unsurprisingly I am incredibly happy with my vote as of now. Fiasco has been advocating (even suggesting it is bad right now) the lynch of someone who is possibly a cop. I don't care about his gibberish stating that 'don't lynch the cop' strategies are just a rule of thumb - I think that is just a tactic to get people to second guess their current thinking. Here's why:

A lot of us think lynching Aelyn is a good idea for the value of the information it will provide (if I wasn't so certain of fiasco's scummyness I would probably advocate this). Information such as who is what sort of cop, or if one is mafia, etc. That sort of information is however bad for the mafia. Having known cops (and knowing their sanity) will prove very detrimental to them.

So what does Fiasco do? tries to Lynch LML today. There goes one cop. And then before the end of the night DG ends up dead and both are dead leaving the town back at square one.

One of them might be mafia trying to pull a counter claim. But if that were the case Fiasco would be advocating what is good for the town (lynching Aelyn {who could be town, mafia or SK} for the info which would leave us with a functional cop of known sanity). Fiasco probably knows this though and as such is subtly suggesting we lynch LML (while trying his darndest to look town).

Reading over this, I don't think I explained my thought process all that well, and I'll clarify if need be.

Just so that we're all clear:

unvote vote Fiasco

Passdog · Post Post #186 (isolation #4) » Sun Feb 19, 2006 10:41 am

@Norinel: it would be odd if we didn't have a scummier target.

In the interest of advancing discussion let's consider the potential scenarios regarding DG, LML and Aelyn.

1. LML and DG are both telling the truth. Aelyn is Town. therefore LML is a cop and DG is insane.

2. LML and DG are both telling the truth. Aelyn is scum. LML is insane and DG a cop.

3. DG tells the truth, LML lies, Aelyn is scum.

4. LML truth, DG lies, Aelyn is town.

What other realistic scenarios are there?

Passdog · Post Post #215 (isolation #5) » Tue Feb 21, 2006 11:45 am

Ditto.

Which is why I am STILL voting Fiasco.

Passdog · Post Post #253 (isolation #6) » Thu Feb 23, 2006 12:14 pm

The more I think about it the more I think an Aeyn lynch is bad for us.

OK so it will tell us whose cop claim is correct. Great! But there are some scenarios people aren't considering. Like; what if Gaetano is Paranoid?

It could mean he is right about Aelyn but will be wrong about another claim later, or wrong now and we'll never know any better. If the latter were the case, and we assumed that his guilty results were equivalent to innocent ones, then we might end up accidently protecting the scum. I think there are too many variables to vote off a potential townie because of two competing claims.

What scummy actions has Aelyn made? Seriously there are scummier players out there. If people can present a good case as to why Aelyn is scum that does not revolve around the competing cop claims then I will vote for him. Untill then I am happy as I am (Die attempted cop-killer!!!

)

Just as a post-script here are some of the variables I've come up with on the claims. I know that many are less likely but I am trying to illustrate the point that we haven't considered everything and should before lynching someone without better evidence.

LML/DG
Cop/Paranoid (always guilty)
Cop/Insane (random)
Cop/(the one that is reversed)
Cop/Liar
Gullible (always innocent {I may have just invented that but it is possible})/Cop
Insane/Cop
reversed/Cop
Liar/Cop
Insane/Paranoid (or Gullible in reverse)
Insane/reversed
reversed/insane
and on
and on
and on

Passdog · Post Post #285 (isolation #7) » Sun Feb 26, 2006 12:09 pm

The reason I'm not posting much is because there isn't much more for me to say. I think Fiasco is scummiest, I've said why, and now I am waiting for further discussion or a decent refutation of my (and the other) arguments for his lynch.

So guys - if you post either vote or argue new points, or against old points. I am quite happy that if you've nothing to add you don't post. I much prefer that happens so I don't have to filter through all the crap.

I'd be interested in finding out who everyone finds most scummy. For me it is obviously Fiasco No.1. Then I am kinda suspicious of the cops (together - one is almost certainly town but I am concerned about the lying possibility - I'm just not sure which it might be). After that... dunno I'll get back to you.

Passdog · Post Post #304 (isolation #8) » Mon Feb 27, 2006 1:32 pm

I always feel that the people who advocate, or are even accepting of, their own lynch are doing so to 'seem' more town. Although it generally feels so contrived that it feels scummy, I do understand the sentiment. Most players get so frustrated at some point or another at their hopeless situation that they feel like giving up.

Despite my understanding, Fiasco's version of this irks me. On top of his already scummy actions Fiasco seems to give up lasting the day, saying that his death will enlighten us in some fashion - without saying what we will learn from his lynch. Claiming at least would provide us with a little extra info with which to garner information and make the correct decision - yet he advocates not revealling.

@Fiasco: What are you trying to hide that we won't lose anyway if you are lynched?

The point to that question is obvious: if he is town what is the benefit of hiding information that could prevent us from lynching a townie? Anyone else feel like these are just stalling tactics?

Passdog · Post Post #320 (isolation #9) » Tue Feb 28, 2006 10:33 am

Fiasco wrote: Now that at least some of the scum seem to think
I'm in the other scum group
, is there any chance we could no-lynch and make the scum waste one or both nightkills on me?

I think Fiasco has given his final tell here. As far as I can see there has been no indication that there could be two scum groups. In fact this quote is tantamount to admitting to being scum! How on Earth could someone make that assumption without being scum.

With regard to Fiasco's claim I kind of expected him to claim vanilla. I find that people always have the most difficulty believing vanilla claims, but that is because they are the easiest claim to make. I don't think it really reveals much.

Passdog · Post Post #329 (isolation #10) » Tue Feb 28, 2006 1:07 pm

Exactly. The word group immediately implies more than one member. How many groups of one have you ever seen?

Passdog · Post Post #374 (isolation #11) » Tue Mar 07, 2006 3:26 pm

The best way for you not to be lynched right now is to explain those three accusations/theories. I would be interested in knowing how you deduced all of those. In fact I think that you know this and as a result are using this as a major stalling tactic.

I understand why you think LML is scum, that much is obvious. I think it safer to assume he is a cop though - nothing was proven or disproven by DG's death. As LML himself (i think) pointed out DG's death is very WIFOM. And the mafia are probably using that to confuse us.

Until now I have been thinking that maybe LML was the sane cop. Now that you start pointing fingers like you are I start to see that he may be right in assuming he is naive.

But the others? What does it achieve to lay those accusations out and then stay quiet. Casting suspicion around like that is scummy unless you are willing to back it up.

Passdog · Post Post #386 (isolation #12) » Thu Mar 09, 2006 11:51 am

Ok. Now that we know that Aelyn is in fact the SK what do we do with the information?

We are now in a pretty tense situation. If we get Aelyn to kill tonight, and we miss and accidentally off a townie, then we are left in a really bad way. So should we consider having Aelyn kill no one?

Passdog · Post Post #404 (isolation #13) » Fri Mar 10, 2006 2:44 pm

The more I consider this situation the mopre I feel as though leaving the SK alive is wrong. I'm not sure what Kingpin is playing at but with DG's guilty verdict, we know that Aelyn is evil, and we can deal with other things tomorrow.

vote Aelyn

Passdog · Post Post #410 (isolation #14) » Tue Mar 14, 2006 11:09 am

OK. Obviously KingPin is mafia. I am concerned about both Vikingfan and d_m though I m not as certain on either (I'm never certain in this game).

On the issue of mass claim: what is the advantage in a themeless game? The more I think about that comment the more I am concerned that LML is feeding us BS. He has been under suspicion the entire game and now wants a mass claim- could that advantage us or will it just tell the mafia how to win the game? I don't want to even FoS LML because his reasoning might be sound - I just cant see it yet. Please explain.

I do however agree with LML on the take things slow issue. We have our lynch; no discussion will only help the mafia. The only reason I'm not voting now is because the mafia could end discussion quickly if votes were placed.

Passdog · Post Post #421 (isolation #15) » Wed Mar 15, 2006 11:13 am

I am a little stumped. I have read this day two or three times since yesterday and am a little wary of making any decision.

I never even considered the possibility that there could be more than one SK (which I sill find unlikely). At the same time I wasn't really expecting so many power roles for the town - two docs, a cop, (maybe a naive cop if LML can be believed - more a disadvantage), and a vig.

I know it is often said that trying to outthink the mod is an exercise in stupidity but I really think trying to figure out the set up is important here.

These are the questions that need to be answered: (each question raises other questions within their ambit but these are the core issues - there is of course some overlap)

1. How many scum are there?
2. How many mafia?

Ordinarily the answer to those questions would be:
1. 4
2. 3

This is not in Kingpin's favour.

I am really struggling to accept that kingpin could be SK. The most kills there has been one night is two, which certainly suggests that there are only two killing parties. It would also seem to seriously unbalance the game if we were to have more than two SK.

There are three reasons I have doubted this logic (and hence can't make up my mind):

1. Why would Kingpin (if mafia) claim SK? I can't imagine him making such a stupid claim unless it were true. How on earth would it advantage the mafia?
2. There were two docs and a day vig. The chances of one of them hitting the right player was really good before the game started and we lost two of them on the first night.

Another thought just ocurred to me... did Aelyn ever claim who he killed on what night?

Passdog · Post Post #436 (isolation #16) » Sun Mar 19, 2006 4:14 pm

Sorry to have not posted in a while: I have been organising a function for the last week and have had limited time. Now its over I have more time.

I agree I think it is pretty plain that KingPin is scum. I wasn't certain at first, but the more I think it over it is plain that a game this size can only afford one SK plus a scum group. Had either of the SK's stated that they were odd or even night killers (which is what I thought might be possible until I reread KingPin's claim and realised he claimed to have targeted two nights in a row) then it may have been plausible for there to be more than one.

Norinel's speculation that there might still be a vig concerns me a little. Three reason's:

1. The certainty that there are three scum out there is immediately troubling. If there are three scum shouldn't they have won by now? I am starting to assume there are only two considering the numbers.
2. He didn't vote for KingPin - made all the right gestures but failed to vote. Of course, am explanation was provided but in light of the next point I think this is relevant.
3. Speculation based on whether there is a vig that could be an attempt to draw him/her out. He didn't vote KingPin yet so that he could get as much info out of the town as possible. If there is a vig out there I suggest you keep quiet.

Despite all these factors that was just one post - in all honesty I hadn't suspected Norinel at all till now - in fact I was positive he was town. I could be reading too much into things.

Anyway, we have one pretty obvious mafioso:

Vote KingPin

.

Passdog · Post Post #448 (isolation #17) » Wed Mar 29, 2006 9:31 pm

Good game guys.

It was a pretty unique situation we had there with two cops claimed on day 1. I was pretty shocked to see it pan out as it did - it really created some convenient confusion that allowed us to lynch plenty of people and not be targeted ourselves.

Lying Brian: I think the set up is actually pretty good. I really enjoy playing.

I have to give props to Norinel - there was no point in the game where I felt we could get you lynched. And I had no idea you were a role blocker. I'm pretty sure you knew who was mafia too (which is why I wanted you dead). I reckon you were easily Town MVP.

Thanks to KingPin and vikingfan - great game guys and a pleasure playing with you both. This is my first win as mafia!!

Passdog · Post Post #454 (isolation #18) » Fri Mar 31, 2006 1:39 pm

Norinel wrote:
Norinel wrote:I'm not usually one to call out a whole mafia family, but the whole SK thing makes LML/KingPin/draygn_mage look incredibly fishy,
And the fact that both other townies were in this threesome is exactly why I don't do this.

Does that mean you didn't suspect vikingfan or I at all (at least until you roleblocked me anyway)?