Open 316 - Hard Boiled (Day Two)

[andrew94]

your reads are wrong

[Quilford]

Conclusions

• LittleGrey
  is most scummy.
• Neil
  is very scummy.
• Amrun and Swankidelic are scummy.
• Hoopla, DarkFlashlight and andrew are all null.
• jakesh
  and glowball could swing either nullscum or nulltown. I can't decide which.
• Oversoul and zMuffin are townie.

VOTE: LittleGrey

woooooooooooo

not the vig btw >_>

[YoYoGuy435]

YoYo, why'd you NK?

I didn't, I tried to kill oversoul and he hid.

[Amrun]

I knew Little Grey was scum!

I was the vig again.

[evilpacman18]

I knew Little Grey was scum!

I was the vig again.

Crap. And to think I could've pushed a lynch on you. I had some support.

[Amrun]

Well obviously I wouldn't have been lynched.

[MrBump]

YoYo was

Mafia Goon,

Mod Notes and flavour coming later.

I am really sorry for the lack of results, my internet actually cut off at the hotel when I went to go write Muffin's, and I forgot about glowball. This game was a strange modding experience, as it had a million replacements, a game breaking plan and a holiday for

me

in the middle of it. Quickly, though, if not for the complete collapse of the scumteam, I reckon the entire game would have gone perfectly if everyone had just stuck to Hoopla's plan. Of course, FMPOV Hoopla was ConfTown so I suppose you all didn't have perfect trust.

All of you that stayed the whole game are epic, and everyone who replaced in is also epic. Thank you!

[Amrun]

Perfect victory get.

[Oversoul]

Perfect victory get.

Hoopla, are you going to actually try to do your plan in the next game now that you have a basis for its results?

[chkflip]

This

so

doesn't count against the fact that this is a hard game for town to win. We got lucky with newbscum making newbscum mistakes. Simple as.

Hoopla's plan could totally help the next one, though.

[Hoopla]

Hoopla, are you going to actually try to do your plan in the next game now that you have a basis for its results?

Don't think I'd play the setup as it is again, mostly because games shouldn't come with prepackaged strategies to improve your chances. There are a lot of unbalanced or just plain bad setups floating through the open queue. So, I want to use this as an example of one.

I think it's obvious this plan (in whatever iteration) improves town's chances over playing it straight. Perhaps not to the point of sweep after sweep - but scum would have a difficult time countering it, as they need to be in the select one or two unconfirmed players that don't die.

[zMuffinMan]

I think it could be won by scum with strong town-looking play and lots of bussing. +a bit of luck with PRs.

[zMuffinMan]

Also Albert suggested adding a scum roleblocker after the last hard boiled. Which would hinder this plan a lot.

[Hoopla]

I think it could be won by scum with strong town-looking play and lots of bussing. +a bit of luck with PRs.

Sure, it could be won by scum in some situations, but it's no doubt they'd enter as underdogs. All it takes is one or two or the unconfirmed players to look really townie (or just more town than scum), and it's over.

Also Albert suggested adding a scum roleblocker after the last hard boiled. Which would hinder this plan a lot.

I think that'd help somewhat, but I'd still favour the town playing with some sort of plan over playing normally. The amount of unique town roles is just too high - it's not about how powerful they are, it's about the ratio of player slots they take up. Because they essentially confirm themself as town or cause a 50/50 in every claiming scenario.

[andrew94]

^like you

[glowball]

what if every scum fake claimed....it'd take up a lot of time lynching...

[Hoopla]

what if every scum fake claimed....it'd take up a lot of time lynching...

Then we'd have a vig, 2 Hider Trackers, 2 Hiders, 2 Psych/Dets. We'd know that scum are lurking within 6 slots, with every lynch clearing/confirming another player. There's no way scum would win that.

[Amrun]

I'm sure ABR will see this.

This will be my third and last hard boiled. Hard to beat this.

[Hoopla]

What did you think when neil fakeclaimed vig?

[MrBump]

Town kinda swept this game. I don't get the Coventry lynch, though, she played town IMO. Poor YoYo was doomed from the moment he replaced in, though Dx

[Amrun]

What did you think when neil fakeclaimed vig?

I thought AWESOME.

[Albert B. Rampage]

I think the game would balance if we merged the Psy/Det with the HT.

[Albert B. Rampage]

Hoopla's strategy was complicated to read -__-

Essentially, 4 VTs claim, breaks up the group 4/8, town lynches one of the 4, vig kills one of the 8?

[Albert B. Rampage]

There are a lot of unbalanced or just plain bad setups floating through the open queue. So, I want to use this as an example of one.

As soon as there's a strategy like this that comes up, you just tweak it around a little bit and release it back into the pond. And it took 5 games to figure this out, because it was in Open Discussions for awhile.

[Hoopla]

Hoopla's strategy was complicated to read -__-

Essentially, 4 VTs claim, breaks up the group 4/8, town lynches one of the 4, vig kills one of the 8?

The basic gist of it is, have the Hider, Hider Tracker and Det/Psych claim "PR". If no scum counterclaim, great! The three Goons are located in a pool of 9 players. The three PR's are now essentially an exposed masonry, forcing scum to NK from that group of players. This enables town to get very nice odds for the lynch, and the subsequent vig N1. The only danger here is that the vig is potentially exposed by getting run up to L-1. So having a 3p voluntary lynch-pool enables the vig to stay hidden, without risk of being lynched. The vig then kills from those not in the lynch pool.

The scum need to either take a risk and go for the vig, but if they miss, they auto-lose, because the lynch/vig narrows the unconfirmed pool down quicker. Or they need to off the PR's, which gives the vig free reign, and an opportunity for three NK's which should be enough to close down the scumteam. It doesn't give a guaranteed win, but the odds far eclipse playing it straight, and hoping the PR's click rather than fucking each other over.

If scum elect to counterclaim on D1, it gets a whole lot more complicated, but I suspect in most instances the possible pathways benefit town just as much, if not more than no scum counterclaiming. I think the right thing to do is have the scummiest of the four claimants to claim their full role, and nobody else to say a thing, then divide the pool in the same way again. The only difference is the scum have decided to go 2/9 and 1/2, rather than 3/9.

With one player fully claiming a PR, if you picked scum, there is a good chance they'll NK their matching counterpart and prove themself as scum. If you picked town, then nothing is lost, and you still have to decide on a 50/50 at some point in the game, but as long as your game plan is centered around getting the vig three shots, there should still be enough time in most cases.

~~

I don't think the setup is bad, as such - it's probably just underdeveloped. In Open games with a whole slew of unique roles, there's always a risk of a claiming strategy providing greater odds. The ratio of unique roles is just too high in this game - it might be better served to go to 13p as well as dropping/merging one of the town PR's.