Mini 280 - Game Over

[vikingfan]

Rule #1: Never try to outguess the mod.

As such, both DG and LML have said at various times that they think they may be insane. We don't know which of them is telling the truth until Aelyn dies. He has said that he is unnightkillabe- an ability which for our purposes may fall equally well between scum (e.g. godfather) and town (coward, for instance). Thus we cannot rely on night to kill him, so a daytime lynch is required (or a daytime vigging, but we lost him already). Thus, for our cop results to make the most sense, we should lynch Aelyn. This way, if one of our cops survives tomorrow with a live result, we can operate further.

What am I missing in my reasoning?

[LyingBrian]

• Vote Count:
  • 5) Aelyn
    • Jaguar
    • KingPin
    • LoudmouthLee
    • Norinel
    • vikingfan
  • 2) Fiasco
    • draygn_mage
    • Passdog
  • 1) draygn_mage
    • Fiasco
  • 1) KingPin
    • Don Gaetano
  • 1)
    not voting
    • Aelyn
• Lynch:
  6 votes

[Don Gaetano]

LB wasn't the MOD of that game, that would mean nothing. He had an unnightkillable role. Anyone who would take the time to read his posts in that game would have to agree with me IMHO.

I realise the town needs hard evidence about who the sane cop is, but I can't see why that can't wait untill tomorow when both cops' results are already on the table. If atleast one of us survives the night, we'll have a pretty good idea who the sane cop is, without having to lynch Aelyn who I believe to be innocent at the moment.

[Passdog]

The more I think about it the more I think an Aeyn lynch is bad for us.

OK so it will tell us whose cop claim is correct. Great! But there are some scenarios people aren't considering. Like; what if Gaetano is Paranoid?

It could mean he is right about Aelyn but will be wrong about another claim later, or wrong now and we'll never know any better. If the latter were the case, and we assumed that his guilty results were equivalent to innocent ones, then we might end up accidently protecting the scum. I think there are too many variables to vote off a potential townie because of two competing claims.

What scummy actions has Aelyn made? Seriously there are scummier players out there. If people can present a good case as to why Aelyn is scum that does not revolve around the competing cop claims then I will vote for him. Untill then I am happy as I am (Die attempted cop-killer!!! )

Just as a post-script here are some of the variables I've come up with on the claims. I know that many are less likely but I am trying to illustrate the point that we haven't considered everything and should before lynching someone without better evidence.

LML/DG
Cop/Paranoid (always guilty)
Cop/Insane (random)
Cop/(the one that is reversed)
Cop/Liar
Gullible (always innocent {I may have just invented that but it is possible})/Cop
Insane/Cop
reversed/Cop
Liar/Cop
Insane/Paranoid (or Gullible in reverse)
Insane/reversed
reversed/insane
and on
and on
and on

[Fiasco]

Now that LML seems to have changed his mind

again

, we have one claimed cop trying to lynch the person he found innocent, and another claimed cop desperately trying to save the person he found guilty. Pretty hilarious, if you ask me.

The fifth vote is scummy again, IMHO (don't say it was another miscount). Aelyn deserves an unvote (from anyone), so we can continue the discussion and so Aelyn himself can be sure of having a final say (draygn_mage might jump in as soon as he gets online). Haven't heard from Aelyn in a while.

FoS

also on those who didn't unvote him (KingPin, vikingfan, Norinel) for shortening a useful day. (Norinel seems pro-town to me otherwise, though.)

I'm not sure whether Aelyn's the right lynch; still doubt it, though I may have overestimated a coward's endgame usefulness earlier.

Actually, the coward loses a big portion of his power as well by claiming- the ability to get attacked and block a scum kill. As it stands, he's just a voice and vote that we might assume to be on the town's side and not going anywhere.

I don't know... there's the possibility of the scum wasting kills by testing him, and the fact that a coward increases the chance of mafia-SK crossfire, and endgame things like getting a draw in a one mafia vs one coward situation. All things considered he seems more useful than a cop who'll probably die next night.

Passdog just went down on my scum-meter (especially the SK part of my scum-meter) for thinking and for not lynching Aelyn.

[Fiasco]

(Sorry for double-posting; with the day possibly ending any moment, there's no way I'm going to save comments for tomorrow.)

Passdog, what you call "insane" is usually called "random", what you call "reversed" is usually called "insane", and what you call "gullible" is usually called "naive". This may clear up some confusion about earlier posts.

I'm pretty sure the SK is one among KingPin, vikingfan, Jaguar, Norinel and draygn_mage (mafia, take note). Aelyn doesn't seem very interested in not dying (

FoS Aelyn

for that). LML and DG's cop claims make no sense for an SK. Passdog, DG and I have all had the opportunity to lynch Aelyn, but argued against it. It seems extremely hard for an SK to win with a coward in the game.

[LoudmouthLee]

(Sorry for double-posting; with the day possibly ending any moment, there's no way I'm going to save comments for tomorrow.)

Passdog, what you call "insane" is usually called "random", what you call "reversed" is usually called "insane", and what you call "gullible" is usually called "naive". This may clear up some confusion about earlier posts.

I'm pretty sure the SK is one among KingPin, vikingfan, Jaguar, Norinel and draygn_mage (mafia, take note). Aelyn doesn't seem very interested in not dying (

FoS Aelyn

for that). LML and DG's cop claims make no sense for an SK. Passdog, DG and I have all had the opportunity to lynch Aelyn, but argued against it. It seems extremely hard for an SK to win with a coward in the game.

Giving the Mafia kill instructions, eh? I'm banking on Fiasco being the SK.

[Fiasco]

I notice you're not unvoting. Why not? Don't you think we're still having productive discussion? I've heard that long days are good for the town.

Once again, it seems extremely hard for an SK to win with a coward in the game. It'd have to be a mafia-coward-SK endgame, and the mafia would have to vote for the coward (why?), and the SK would have to win by default when everyone's dead. Either that, or some foolish townie would have to vote for the coward.

I could have been on the Aelyn bandwagon long ago without looking suspicious. He'd probably be dead by now. I just don't think he's the right lynch.

[vikingfan]

In the interest of fostering further discussion,

unvote

Fiasco, why are you necessarily assuming that Aelyn is telling the truth and is a coward? We do, after all, have a report telling us that he's scum. Given what we know now, the odds are roughly fifty-fifty that he's scum. So if we lynched him and he's scum, we've bagged a baddie, found a probable sane cop, AND have at least an insane cop, possibly scum. Not bad with one lynch.

More to the point, if I'm going to back off Aelyn, you, Fiasco, will be my #1 target for all the reasons already mentioned, most notably promoting the lynch of a claimed cop. I have been going after Aelyn mainly because his death will help the town the most (in terms of determining who is the real cop, as I outlined in the last paragraph). However, in terms of actual PLAY, Fiasco has been by far the most suspicious. Why are you so concerned about the SK and what is best for him? It's day one- we're a LONG way from the endgame, heck we're still on day one.

fos fiasco

Don't take the fact that people have had the opportunity to lynch Aelyn and not take it too high. That can be interpreted as WIFOM as well: people know that not lynching Aelyn may be looked upon as pro-town so they don't lynch. I'm not banking on that too much, especially day one.

[KingPin]

I am torn. I fully believe that to find out who the sane cop is we need to lynch someone that they both have investigated. Fiasco, it is funny that the one that got Aelyn guilty is trying to save him, while the one that got him innocent is trying to lynch him.

At the same time, I have a very suspicious of those who view what is best for the town as scummy. IMO, you are ignoring the certainty that we, the town, would gain by knowing which cop is sane. Fiasco, what do you think is best for the town? You are advocating the lynch of a claimed cop. I WILL NEVER VOTE FOR A CLIAMED COP ON D1 WITHOUT MORE INFORMATION. Since no other 'cop' has come forward with an investigation of LML to prove that he is scum, why should I follow you?

This discussion that some want sounds like an effort to get more townies to make claims! How many more claims do we need on D1? We have already gotten claims from, what may be, very powerful pro-town roles. Yet you want more.

I still believe that Aelyn is the best choice!

UnVote

Fiasco, you have exactly one day to make me believe that you are working for the best interest of the town. I will vote for you otherwise. Yes it is a subjective test. Subject to my interpretation. I do not believe you are advocating what is best and, in fact, are using your posts to muddle up the town. To distract from what is good for the town. Which is a very scummy thing to do.

FOS: Fiasco

As an aside:

So help me, if anyone begins to use game information other than the one we are in to support their claim or position, from now on I will vote you! Period. That is becoming my biggest complaint from this game. It is unreasonable, unlogical, and completely unconfirmable! The purpose of keeping these other games around is to provide a basis for new players to learn to play the game. If you use this information to base your opinion, you have missed the point of MAFIA, the game. If you think I am being unreasonable in this, fine. I got into this to play the game, not metagame OR try and outguess the mod. If that is how you play, then you are not using the reasoning skills that this game requires. Go learn them, then come back and apply to the game you are playing.

[LoudmouthLee]

I notice you're not unvoting. Why not? Don't you think we're still having productive discussion? I've heard that long days are good for the town.

Once again, it seems extremely hard for an SK to win with a coward in the game. It'd have to be a mafia-coward-SK endgame, and the mafia would have to vote for the coward (why?), and the SK would have to win by default when everyone's dead. Either that, or some foolish townie would have to vote for the coward.

I could have been on the Aelyn bandwagon long ago without looking suspicious. He'd probably be dead by now. I just don't think he's the right lynch.

Unvote

He's not the right lynch? You're confusing me...

I told you, I recieved an innocent investigation of him. So, you believe he's innocent now. I'm.. lost.

At this point in time, I'd be willing to vote Fiasco or Dragyn_Mage based on his heads or tails game.

[LoudmouthLee]

I notice you're not unvoting. Why not? Don't you think we're still having productive discussion? I've heard that long days are good for the town.

Once again, it seems extremely hard for an SK to win with a coward in the game. It'd have to be a mafia-coward-SK endgame, and the mafia would have to vote for the coward (why?), and the SK would have to win by default when everyone's dead. Either that, or some foolish townie would have to vote for the coward.

I could have been on the Aelyn bandwagon long ago without looking suspicious. He'd probably be dead by now. I just don't think he's the right lynch.

Unvote

He's not the right lynch? You're confusing me...

I told you, I recieved an innocent investigation of him. So, you believe he's innocent now. I'm.. lost.

At this point in time, I'd be willing to vote Fiasco or Dragyn_Mage based on his heads or tails game.

Edit after initital send (I don't know if this is going to double post.. I hit stop)

Here's a thought... DG = scum, got caught in a gambit of Aelyn (I, being the cop that actually investigated him). Fiasco seems to be protecting DG (note the distancing going on)

Just some more to chew on. I'm more comfortable with a Fiasco lynch.

[Fiasco]

Fan and Pin: the important thing is that

our sane cop probably won't survive the night

, so most information gained from Aelyn's death becomes useless immediately.

Fan: endgame SK possibilities are relevant because they tell us something about the SK's current behavior. If Aelyn stays alive, the SK can probably no longer win (though the mafia can), and if we lynch someone else than Aelyn, then Aelyn may be confirmed innocent for practical purposes. It's a good possibility that

not lynching Aelyn today will cost the SK the win

. Saying WIFOM doesn't completely refute this, because people may still think the SK is the mafia; that's why IMHO the SK doesn't have as much to gain by using WIFOM logic as by lynching Aelyn. (Though come to think of it, the SK will want to avoid mafia nightkills as well as lynches.)

Fan and Lee: I think Aelyn may be guilty. That I don't want to see him lynched doesn't mean I think he's innocent; just that lynching him is bad if he is innocent.

Lee: I'm going to think more about the possibility that DG is scum, especially the possibility that he claimed to draw out the real cop. Only thing is, wouldn't he want to lynch Aelyn and nightkill you in that case? Like me, he could have been on the Aelyn bandwagon without looking suspicious, and yet he isn't.

[Fiasco]

I'm willing to let the scum sort out the cop problem for us.

Does this strike anyone else as a scum comment? A lot of people are arguing we can sort out the cop problem by lynching Aelyn; I'm arguing the cop problem is not worth sorting out, because they're dead anyway, and we can instead sort out the Aelyn problem by not lynching him; but the only way the

scum

are going to "sort out" the cop problem is by killing them off, sane/real one first.

[Fiasco]

By the way, let's give that Mptions person a break for once and question the "SCUM ALREADY KNOWS WHO IS SANE". How does the SK know who is sane? How does the mafia know (for certain) Aelyn isn't the SK? Have you considered that lynching Aelyn would give them all this information, allowing them both to target the sane cop and possibly bypass a doc-protect?

[draygn_mage]

Wow, thrashing like a fish on the hook. Anyone you DON'T find suspicious Fiasco?

Here are the options as I see it based on the major players in this drama.

If: Aelyn is townie, then LML is either sane or scum who is incredibly stupid for counter-claiming the cop, and DG is Insane, paranoid, or scum who claimed cop to draw the cop out now that the doc is dead.

If: Aelyn is scum, then LML is either insane, naive, or scum who is incredibly stupid for counter-claiming the cop, and DG is sane or scum who claimed cop to draw out the cop now that the doc is dead and LML is coving the real cop who is still out there.

If: Aelyn is the SK, then LML is either insane, naive, or scum who is incredibly stupid for counter claiming the cop, ad DG is either sane or scum trying to draw out the cop now that the doc is dead.

Someone else please add to this with your observations and maybe we can piece together what is going on here.

[Norinel]

endgame things like getting a draw in a one mafia vs one coward situation.

Actually, that situation could be interpreted different ways, so just to be sure:

Mod:

If the game is reduced to a single mafia/SK with no other abilities and a single unkillable townie, who wins?

This discussion that some want sounds like an effort to get more townies to make claims! How many more claims do we need on D1? We have already gotten claims from, what may be, very powerful pro-town roles. Yet you want more.

Agreed.

[Jaguar]

Wow. Three unvotes in a remarkably short time. There is already hesitation on the lynching vote on Aelyn, as we've been dicussing this for days now and Aelyn is still alive. I'm getting resigned to the fact that we are going to go into night, not knowing who to believe.

I still think that Aelyn is the right lynch for today, and I still feel that Fiasco's behaviour is extremely scummy for wanting to lynch a claimed cop without knowing which one is right.

Kingpin, I agree with you on the game information. Just because the role was present in another game, doesn't mean it will be present here and relying on that is downright silly.

Norinel, if that is the situation come daytime, I would imagine it's a draw between town and whomever doesn't get killed that day. If that is the situation going into night, it will depend on the night actions. Will the two scum parties target eachother or not?

Fiasco, in your mention of possible SK's you didn't mention either yourself or Aelyn. Why couldn't Aelyn be scum? Or once again, you yourself haven't endeared yourself to anyone in the game and if it weren't for this whole conundrum, I think you already would have been lynched.

[vikingfan]

I agree with Jaguar- given the extreme hesitation to lynch Aelyn, I'm already thinking that we won't be lynching him today.

Given that, my mind is already moving to Fiasco. In terms of actual gameplay, he has been #1 in my mind ahead of Aelyn (I have been supporting Aelyn for game-related reasons). Most notably for the reason that he has been supporting lynching a claimed cop day 1 and he seems to be jumping all over the place.

Given that, and how early it still is, I will

vote Fiasco

.

I doubt the mod will answer the question, if only to avoid supporting Aelyn's claim- we have no idea yet whether or not Aelyn is telling the truth so I don't want to start assuming that he is.

[draygn_mage]

You never know WHAT will happen when you have 3 players left in a game. unless something retarded happened, I would guess the game would end in a draw.

[Fiasco]

Anyone you DON'T find suspicious Fiasco?

There's no one I find completely unsuspicious, but Norinel and DG strike me as less scummy than others. I'm in a state of confusion: there seems to be good evidence for Aelyn's innocence, good evidence for Aelyn's guilt, good evidence for LML's innocence, and a mountain of evidence for LML's guilt.

Norinel, I agree another claim would be bad. The alternative is to lynch a claimed power role, though. And once again, we should

at least

hear from Aelyn.

Fiasco, in your mention of possible SK's you didn't mention either yourself or Aelyn. Why couldn't Aelyn be scum? Or once again, you yourself haven't endeared yourself to anyone in the game and if it weren't for this whole conundrum, I think you already would have been lynched.

This paragraph confuses me. I did mention Aelyn and myself as unlikely to be the SK. I agree Aelyn could be mafia. I agree people seem to think I'm scum, but I don't see the relevance to the SK question.

[LyingBrian]

• Vote Count:
  • 3) Fiasco
    • draygn_mage
    • Passdog
    • vikingfan
  • 2) Aelyn
    • Jaguar
    • Norinel
  • 1) draygn_mage
    • Fiasco
  • 1) KingPin
    • Don Gaetano
  • 3)
    not voting
    • Aelyn
    • KingPin
    • LoudmouthLee
• Lynch:
  6 votes

[Fiasco]

Still wanted to reply to this:

If: Aelyn is townie, then LML is either sane or scum who is incredibly stupid for counter-claiming the cop

If Aelyn is townie, then counterclaiming the cop may have made sense, because the correct result would gain LML trust and would make DG look suspicious.

If: Aelyn is scum, then LML is either insane, naive, or scum who is incredibly stupid for counter-claiming the cop

Except in Godfather cases, maybe.

Jaguar, Mage: Norinel meant a two-person endgame with one townie and one scum (either mafia OR SK), rather than a three-person endgame.

[draygn_mage]

I would still think it would be a draw. You can't get majority for a lynch and you can't nightkill the townie.

[Fiasco]

I agree.

A (backup) doc that protects against at most one attack

is

the standard case, isn't it? (If not, do correct me!) If so, then how is our sane cop ever going to survive after an Aelyn lynch? I don't think people have addressed this argument. Our sane cop is gonna die!