Mini 280 - Game Over

[LoudmouthLee]

logically, Aelyn is the best lynch today. It will at least give our doc a good target to protect and force the scum and SK to hit one person and not two.

That makes no sense whatsoever. If we lynch Aelyn, there will be two obvious nightkill targets: LML and DG. This will lead to either one or two dead claimed cops; if there's a doctor, one or zero. On the other hand, if we lynch LML, there will be one obvious nightkill target: DG. This will lead to one dead claimed cop; if there's a doctor, zero. (I'm assuming the mafia and SK don't mutually coordinate their kills; be on the lookout for anyone trying to do so.) We'll also have lynched the other claimed cop, but as a compensation, if LML is innocent, we'll have a confirmed unnightkillable townie.

If you want to kill off ALL power roles, lynching Aelyn is your best bet. I've come to the conclusion that Aelyn is probably a bad lynch at this point. Lynching LML doesn't seem to be politically feasible and might be a bad idea based on his cop claim, so maybe the best feasible lynch is a scummy looking player who has not claimed a power role; say, Mage or Dog. If no other players are scummy enough, maybe even a no-lynch. (I can say that, since I'm already at the lowest possible level of popularity anyway.) I'll need to think about whether I myself might a better lynch than Aelyn.

If we have two cops, one is going to be nightkilled soon, anyway; if we have no doctor, two. A bulletproof townie, on the other hand, lasts until lynched. And the inevitable cop nightkills will either clear him, or prove him scum, in which case we can go ahead and lynch him the next day.

A lot of this depends on how sure LML is, based on his PM, that he's sane. LML, please post.

Nothing in my PM makes me think I'm insane

[Fiasco]

That's also true of Don Gaetano, and yet you can't both be sane.

[Fiasco]

Was this an intentional lie or an honest mistake, then?

After re-reading my PM, I have to believe I'm sane.

[LoudmouthLee]

Fiasco. I'll be honest. When I first read my pm, I didn't read the "fine print" so well. When I re-read at the time of your quoted post, I didn't see anything that could be figured that way.

Fiasco, you're the scummiest player, as you STILL SEEM TO BE PUSHING FOR THE LYNCH OF THE COP.

Here's the story: Fiasco is MAFIA, he knows the Aelyn is INNOCENT, so he's still continuing to put the doubt of me into EVERYONE'S head!

[Fiasco]

Fiasco is MAFIA, he knows the Aelyn is INNOCENT

This is insane. If I'm mafia and Aelyn is innocent, then why did I unvote him when he was at five? Wouldn't I have wanted to sit back and let people lynch the only player I couldn't nightkill? Why am I putting myself at risk trying to get someone else than him lynched?

[LoudmouthLee]

WIFOM, same thing you told me. You see, Fiasco, this whole town should have lynched you well before any of this happened. You think, for a moment, I wanted to come out with the damn doctor dead? And you're still pushing for my lynch? I needed to stop a lynch that, in my mind, would have HURT the town instead of help it. Instead, I continually have to listen to your worthless drivel about lynching a CLAIMED COP.

[Jaguar]

If we have two cops, one is going to be nightkilled soon, anyway; if we have no doctor, two. A bulletproof townie, on the other hand, lasts until lynched. And the inevitable cop nightkills will either clear him, or prove him scum, in which case we can go ahead and lynch him the next day.

I'm not sure I follow this line of reasoning. Who is to say that our mighty mod will let us know which cop is of what sanity? If they are indeed both cops, we will likely not find out sanity until after the game is over and that is going to be too late.

so maybe the best feasible lynch is a scummy looking player who has not claimed a power role; say, Mage or Dog. If no other players are scummy enough, maybe even a no-lynch. (I can say that, since I'm already at the lowest possible level of popularity anyway.) I'll need to think about whether I myself might a better lynch than Aelyn.

Did I miss your claim? Why are you not putting yourself in this list as you are obviously on most people's scummy behaviour listing. An afterthought of you saying that you need to think whether you feel you are a better lynch than Aelyn doesn't put you in the same category as draygn_mage or Passdog (and why do you think they should be on this list?)

We have 10 players alive. Say we accept that both DG and LML are cops of unknown sanity. Say that we believe Aelyn's claim. That leaves us with 7 people who could possibly be scum. I still don't understand why you would want to lynch a claimed cop. We have conflicting investigation results, indicating that one is of unknown sanity, but likely both are pro-town. The scum may know who is sane, but they don't know if the other cop is just getting reverse results or is actually paranoid/naive. Taking one cop out through a lynch, makes the scum's job so much easier as we'd be doing their job for them.

Fiasco, can you please try to put everything in one post rather than double or triple posting? Am I the only one who finds this annoying?

[Fiasco]

When I re-read at the time of your quoted post, I didn't see anything that could be figured that way.

I'm sorry, but I'm going to keep hammering on this. How do you go from the absence of suggestions that you're non-sane, to "I have to believe I'm sane"? Do you agree with me that if Don Gaetano has the same PM, your cop result actually is no evidence that Aelyn's innocent? If so, how are you so sure Aelyn's innocent? Because you're mafia, perhaps?

[Fiasco]

WIFOM, same thing you told me. You see, Fiasco, this whole town should have lynched you well before any of this happened. You think, for a moment, I wanted to come out with the damn doctor dead? And you're still pushing for my lynch? I needed to stop a lynch that, in my mind, would have HURT the town instead of help it. Instead, I continually have to listen to your worthless drivel about lynching a CLAIMED COP.

Question to the experienced players here: does LML usually get all angry and incoherent when attacked as a pro-townie? What about as a scum?

You think, for a moment, I wanted to come out with the damn doctor dead? (...) I needed to stop a lynch that, in my mind, would have HURT the town instead of help it.

You mean you came out because you felt you had to stop that lynch where you PLACED THE FIFTH VOTE? This is a blatant lie.

vote: LoudmouthLee

(Jaguar, I need to go offline now but will answer your points later.)

[Norinel]

"Quite possible"? I've never seen that before, and having two non-sane cops would be a huge disadvantage for the town.

Without the context of the rest of the setup, assumptions based on balance are generally unhelpful.

If we lynch Aelyn, there will be two obvious nightkill targets: LML and DG.

There will be one much more obvious nightkill target- whichever of LML or DG got a correct result.

I certainly don't want to entertain the thought of lynching a claimed cop without some additional information, and lynching Aelyn will give us that information.

This is also my stand as far as the claimed cops go. As far as lynching anyone else, I'm generally of the opinion that three claims is about as far as the town should go Day 1 without incredibly good reason. For me, Fiasco doesn't quite cut it at the moment. Vote stands.

[LoudmouthLee]

WIFOM, same thing you told me.

You responded WIFOM when I said why would I come out at that exact point in time if I were scum, and you called it a Wine in front of me argument. Yours is moreso.

You see, Fiasco, this whole town should have lynched you well before any of this happened.

When you slipped at the very beginning.

You think, for a moment, I wanted to come out with the damn doctor dead? And you're still pushing for my lynch?

I think you understand this.

I needed to stop a lynch that, in my mind, would have HURT the town instead of help it.

I found Aelyn INNOCENT. I felt a need to stop that lynch. I made a decision (to vote for Aelyn), reread your posts, made a counting mistake (acknowledged), and changed my vote back to you, because you deserved it.

Instead, I continually have to listen to your worthless drivel about lynching a CLAIMED COP.

And that's evidenced by your vote for me.

Confirm Vote: Fiasco

He's truly a fiasco.

[LyingBrian]

• Vote Count:
  • 4) Aelyn
    • Jaguar
    • KingPin
    • Norinel
    • vikingfan
  • 3) Fiasco
    • draygn_mage
    • LoudmouthLee
    • Passdog
  • 1) LoudmouthLee
    • Fiasco
  • 2)
    not voting
    • Aelyn
    • Don Gaetano
• Lynch:
  6 votes

[LoudmouthLee]

1. LML and DG are both telling the truth. Aelyn is Town. therefore LML is a cop and DG is insane.

Possible/Likely

2. LML and DG are both telling the truth. Aelyn is scum. LML is insane and DG a cop.

Possible/Somewhat likely

3. DG tells the truth, LML lies, Aelyn is scum.

Impossible, but even if you aren't me and don't know my role, what happens when one of us die? The other is sure to follow suit.. poor scum play, if it were scum play..

4. LML truth, DG lies, Aelyn is town.

I still think DG's a cop. It's very odd, but the way he came out.. just seemed coppish (a bit on the quick draw if you ask me, but still, not scummy.) However, this is possible from my standpoint, because I know my role/result, but I still don't think DG's scum. Very Unlikely.

I missed this post for some reason. In bold, in the quoted area, is my response.

And, you could entertain the point that we're both scum (as Fiasco has done...) and come to realize that two scum, on day one? Brazen and Ill-thought out. I also know my role.. I'm a cop.

[KingPin]

LML, I agree that Fiasco is very, very scummy looking. (Fiasco, watch! I am about to explain why! and without quad-posting!)

Advocating the lynch of a claimed cop is very scummy. To do that based on PM's which we are not to 'quote' is also very scummy. If there is nothing in the PM to suggest sanity, why then shouldn't they expect to be sane. To be honest, it seems that to base your vote on LML on what the PM may or may not have said is completely without merit.

To address your position: We have no way of knowing Aelyn's claim is true! Just like we cannot be sure that either of our cops claims are true. To be sure that any of their claims are true we need to have a sample tested. If that sample will yeild a result that will ultimately help the town, then GOOD FOR THE TOWN.

However, there is no way that lynching a claimed cop will help the town today! If we lynch LML and it turns out he was the "sane" cop, then we have an insane cop running around and the good cop is long gone. Most likely we will not get a sanity result on a dead cop! Which will leave Aelyn's claim still up in the air.

Huge

FOS: Fiasco

[vikingfan]

Bingo- I agree with Kingpin and LML regarding this matter. If it wasn't that Aelyn is the correct play, I'd be voting you right now, Fiasco.

Too bad we lost our day-vig (see the night deaths). This would be a perfect time for it...

[Passdog]

Ditto.

Which is why I am STILL voting Fiasco.

[draygn_mage]

I am really having a hard time changing my vote from Fiasco to Aelyn. My brain tells me that he is the most logical lynch, but if Fiasco can't stop posting craplogic I'm going to want to lynch him.

@Fiasco- pay attention to mafia math.

For mafia, cop = bad
For SK, cop = bad

If there are 2 claimed cops, then each one has a 50% chance of the mafia targetting it for a night-kill. Additionally, they each have a 50% chance of the SK targetting them for a night-kill. Now if there is a backup doc, then the scum and the SK have to BOTH target the same cop. 50% * 50% = 25% chance that both target the same cop and overcome doc protection because they can't coordinate.

If there is no backup doc then we at least get a 25% chance (by the same math) of having ONE of our cops alive in morning.

If the insane cop gets reverse results, then he can still be useful (useful cop = bad for scum).

I'll move my vote to Aelyn once we're done discussing today, but I really want to revisit the Fiasco problem tomorrow.

[Fiasco]

Oh my! D2 is going to be fun.

Before this whole thread degenerates into a hate-Fiasco-gasm, I should explain that (since most of you seem incapable of rationally assessing the advantages of a Lee lynch ) I'm OK with an Aelyn lynch now if no one else has any objections. (Except that if he's innocent, you'll probably lynch me the next day, and then the town is small enough that it's almost certainly dead. Hrm. Assuming I'm innocent, what would you do in my position?)

I still think the LML lynch is probably our best option, so here goes.

WIFOM, same thing you told me.

It's possible I told you that (though I don't remember). But there are different kinds of WIFOM argument. Consider the case of a single scum in an endgame with two townies. If one townie votes for the scum, and the other townie posts without voting for the scum, then that second townie is confirmed innocent. It's a sort of WIFOM argument to say, "if I were the scum, I'd have voted him and killed him", but it's a valid argument, because the townie passed up what would be a chance to win the game if he were scum. WIFOM arguments are valid to the extent that they involve real sacrifices by the alleged scum. That I unvoted Aelyn at five and started advocating lynching you was a real sacrifice on my part if I were scum, because in that case my situation would be a lot better if I had just let Aelyn be lynched. It's not nearly as clear-cut as the townie-townie-scum-endgame example, but it's still fairly good evidence for my innocence.

I'm not sure I follow this line of reasoning. Who is to say that our mighty mod will let us know which cop is of what sanity?

I agree we'll probably not be told cop sanities. I was still sort of going by the assumption that LML's role PM implied he was sane (blame him), but even without that assumption, we can get a pretty good idea of Aelyn's alignment. If we have only one cop, that cop is

probably

sane, so if LML is town and we later learn DG is scum (through his death or whatever), that more or less clears Aelyn. If we have two cops, then one of them is

probably

sane, so if LML is town and DG turns out to be non-sane (through his results or whatever), that more or less clears Aelyn. On the other hand if DG turns out to be sane (through his results or whatever), then Aelyn is scum. If LML turns up scum, then DG is

probably

sane, so that more or less proves Aelyn scum. Etc etc etc. It's not

absolute

certainty, but it comes reasonably close IMHO.

I have to go offline again now, but there's still a lot I'd like to respond to later.

[vikingfan]

Why not simply LYNCH Aelyn so we can know for sure, rather than possibly sacrificing a sane cop just because you want to? Everyone here, except you, has propounded the reasons why we should avoid an LML lynch today and I agree with them. In fact, I'll add that if we DO have a backup doc, it's foolilsh to not allow him to try to protect- it's possible that our sane cop (if we have one ) could actually survive the night in that scenario and then he could have a result for us AND we could trust the result. Useful, no? THen why are you recommending tossing this possibility away? Furthermore, Aelyn's alignment will tell us who is correct and that gives us more information. The scum likely already knows who's telling the truth- let's give that info to the town as well. More to the point, a claimed cop (who I will assume is sane or insane, either works well for us) is more valuable to the town than an unnightkillable townie. And even the townie himself is not guaranteed life- in the coward roles I've seen, if the coward hides with someone selected for death that night, the coward will die as well. The cop can give us progressive info throughout the day and help hand us scum if he finds them- I'm not willing to throw that away day 1.

I'm still fine with an Aelyn lynch, but you're first on my scumometer for tomorrow pending further developments.

[vikingfan]

I should add that obviously, both DG and LML cannot both be sane- but that just means that in all probability one of them is sane- so I don't want to lynch one of them day 1 and risk losing the wrong one.

Speaking of which, why are you so ardently promoting the lynch of LML? Wouldn't lynching DG do just as much good under your theory, Fiasco? (not that I'm promoting the idea, mind you)

[LoudmouthLee]

Revisit the problem is/when either me or DG is dead? Honestly... Here's why I feel we're getting a better lynch today with Fiasco:

Known quantity: When I come up dead, you knew my results. You can go with it from there. You also know DG's results, and if/when he turns up dead, you have knowledge there...

The only person there who want's to kill a KNOWN cop is Fiasco. That, coupled with the fact that with a/the doctor dead... it's a possibility that DG WILL NEVER HAVE ANOTHER INVESTIGATION TO MAKE!

Again. The SCUM ALREADY KNOWS WHO IS SANE, as log as DG and I somehow coordinate who we're investigating (maybe the same person again?), we can make this work.

I will reiterate here...

Fiasco wants to lynch a cop. He wants to lynch, and then, with a nightkill, the scum have no cops to worry about. Don't be foolish town. Two cops have been outted and an UnNKable. I say we lynch Fiasco. If I and DG turn up pro-town, it may be a good idea to THEN lynch Aelyn.

If Aelyn's scum, witch he might be... We just watch him and watch his voting patterns. We, as the town, have the power here. There will be no relinquishing of it.

LYNCH FIASCO.

[Norinel]

@Fiasco- pay attention to mafia math.

For mafia, cop = bad
For SK, cop = bad

If there are 2 claimed cops, then each one has a 50% chance of the mafia targetting it for a night-kill. Additionally, they each have a 50% chance of the SK targetting them for a night-kill. Now if there is a backup doc, then the scum and the SK have to BOTH target the same cop. 50% * 50% = 25% chance that both target the same cop and overcome doc protection because they can't coordinate.

If there is no backup doc then we at least get a 25% chance (by the same math) of having ONE of our cops alive in morning.

I don't think I've ever explicitly called something crap logic in a game before, but I will now. The worst assumption of it is that the killers will hit a cop at random, which ignores the fact that they have a much better idea of who's sane and will assume that a sane cop is more likely than in insane cop. Remember that assumptions make an ass out of u and mptions. (And even if you do make that assumption and the one that both cops are telling the truth, it's a 50% chance they'll hit the same cop, not 25. But that's splitting hairs.)

(Except that if he's innocent, you'll probably lynch me the next day,

Between an Aelyn lynch and any info gained from cop results/death revelations/etc. tonight, the situation will be quite different.

and then the town is small enough that it's almost certainly dead.

If there's crosskilling, then there won't be a problem, and if not, it goes into prisoner's gambit unless you're the SK.

And even the townie himself is not guaranteed life- in the coward roles I've seen, if the coward hides with someone selected for death that night, the coward will die as well.

I'm sure that if there were even a hiding choice to be made, Aelyn would've said so when he claimed.

The only person there who want's to kill a KNOWN cop is Fiasco.

Claimed, in everyone else's eyes.

He wants to lynch, and then, with a nightkill, the scum have no cops to worry about.

Ass! U! Mptions!

If Aelyn's scum, witch he might be... We just watch him and watch his voting patterns.

Or we watch the voting patterns he's already given us.

I still think both LML and Fiasco are scummily obsessed with each other. I don't think it's worth worrying about now, as it could just a case of mutually inflaming townies with the scum either stepping out of the way or putting wood on the fire as appropriate.

[LoudmouthLee]

Ass! U! Mptions!

A further reread of what I said would lead us to...

The only person there who want's to kill a KNOWN cop is Fiasco. That, coupled with the fact that with

a/the doctor dead... it's a possibility that DG WILL NEVER HAVE ANOTHER INVESTIGATION TO MAKE!

The assumption was prefaced.

Thanks.

[LoudmouthLee]

Bah: Edit... Norinel.

[Norinel]

One of them, yes.