Mini 280 - Game Over

[Fiasco]

Ooh, my first random vote! (Assuming it was random.)

vote Aelyn

Hi all!

[Fiasco]

Death scene plus the fact that chaotic_diablo was a day vig suggests to me we have a serial killer and a mafia (probably three members). Anyone (dis)agree?

[Fiasco]

It's meaningless to make up an opinion about that yet Fiasco.

Why?

plus anyone speculating about killing groups makes me uneasy.

Why?

[Fiasco]

KingPin, not sure whether you're asking me or LML; mine was pretty much random, but what I meant was Lee's vote was the first random vote on me.

Don Gaetano, why restrict random votes to those who already have votes? Shouldn't it be called "random bandwagoning" then?

[Fiasco]

It's true that discussing the setup may give the scum information, but it's also true that this information may help them to kill each other, which would be good, and it's also true that it may give the town information, which would also be good. You may have a point, or you may not. I'll admit that I didn't really consider the giving information to the scum part before asking the question; I have always had the habit of bleating out everything that comes to mind, and that's worked well, but then I've never played in the beginning of a non-newbie game.

Why *wouldn't* this vote be random, unless you're afraid you're scum already fingered by a cop?

I don't know; people can vote for any number of nonrandom reasons. Maybe you thought I was more likely than the others to want to nightkill those people that have been nightkilled. Maybe you're a scum picking a relatively new player as an easy scapegoat. Maybe you like typing my username. (OK, that would probably count as random.) I just thought I'd make sure not to say something false by adding the "if".

That little aside you threw in there makes be believe that you're scum.

Because I'd be dumb enough to give myself away in the first sentence of my first post, right?

FoS LoudmouthLee

for believing me to be scum on zero evidence.

[Fiasco]

This *can't* be the first time he's been random voted here.

Because I would make up a pointless lie in the first sentence of my first post, right? I've replaced someone twice, and in the two games I was in from the start, no one random-voted me.

FoS: draygn_mage

. If someone says something improbable, either check for yourself or ask for proof, rather than assume a gratuitous lie.

[Fiasco]

If I had a reason, trust me, I would have stated it.

And how should I have known this? Would you say that votes with no reason given are always random, even when not described as random?

I pick on scum, not newbies.

Apparently not.

[Fiasco]

Oh, brilliant. My first bandwagon, too!

[Fiasco]

Since there's probably about four scum around, three votes already seems like a dangerous level if you guys are pro-town. If I'm lynched, you'd be left with about four scum and five town (both minus nightkills), which is already nearly unwinnable. This bandwagon is based on absolutely nothing, and you should unvote.

[Fiasco]

You have a point, but do take into account that based on numbers, the scum are already pretty close to winning, so they can afford to take fairly big risks. I'm going to

unvote, vote draygn_mage

, because he's the only one so far caught in a knowable falsehood (of sorts).

[Fiasco]

Your silence creeps me out. It's like being hunted by mimes!

[Fiasco]

He could have just asked me for proof or explanation. I have nothing to gain by lying about this, and to assume it is ridiculous, sorry.

I saw Jaguar online here earlier today.

[Fiasco]

LML, for his blantant, I'll vote for scum 'with or without a reason' to suggest why he is scum.

Actually, the "if I had a reason I would have stated it" part referred to his random vote on me.

[Fiasco]

If it helps, here's a bit of history. I wrote:

Ooh, my first random vote! (Assuming it was random.)

I originally wrote "(At least I'm assuming it was random)", and "(I'm assuming it was random)" before going with this version for brevity.

[Fiasco]

But a scum win is never guaranteed.

That's why I said "fairly big risks" rather than "arbitrarily big risks".

and it would be very unwise for scum to all be on the same wagon.

Unless they're in different scum teams (e.g. serial killer).

You are dominating the thread with some unnecessary posts (A couple of one-liners) and double posts. If this is your normal playing style, it is certainly not helping you any.

I disagree with your assumption that people shouldn't post unless "necessary". We need to get as much information out there as possible. Participation good, lurking bad. Now that I've turned off my sig, I can't see double posts hurting, either. I think it would be good for the town if more of you played more like this.

And yes, this is my normal playing style. If it's not helping the town, that's only because some in the town are silly enough to vote/accuse based on a non-harmful, slightly unconventional playing style. (When did that ever become a scum tell?)

[Fiasco]

Now that everyone knows that I know that everyone else considers defensive posting to be a scum tell, it's no longer a scum tell, so I can post defensively to my heart's content. Right?

Aelyn's post is interesting, because he's the only one alive with whom I've been in a game before; I had vaguely expected him to defend me, because my playing style (as town) was similar there. I didn't get accused much, but when I did, I always defended myself, I think.

He's correct that I've overstated the probability that, if a pro-townie is lynched, any individual scum group will win; I said they would be "pretty close" to the win, and while that's ambiguous, it's probably less than a 1 in 2 chance in reality. (When I wrote that, I had been thinking about whether or not we might already be in lynch or lose; if we lynch a pro-townie, the mafia nightkills the SK, and the SK nightkills a townie, we're very close to a loss but not quite there yet. This may explain some of the confusion in my mind. I've always considered a mafia + SK the main possibility and agree that my arguments are worse than they would be given four unified scum.)

I do still think that if we lynch wrong, the town is in very bad shape. In the other mini I've been in, the town lynched right the first three times but still lost. I also still think the three votes aren't without risk. One confused townie, one SK and one self-sacrificing mafia member would do the trick.

Aelyn seems to be saying the following is an argument independent of his other ones:

which, incidentally, is invalid since the town's in exactly the same boat regarding everyone else

but I don't understand what he means here.

One last point. Whether you think posting a lot is good or bad, it would be irrational to data-mine the most scummy tell out of all posts. Instead, you should look more at the scum tell rate. Someone with two tells in four posts is scummier than someone with three tells in ten posts, assuming equally contentful/risky posts.

FoS Aelyn

: 4th votes based on little are scummy. Instead of attacking me for addressing the arguments, you should be attacking people like LmL for not addressing the arguments, as would happen in any normal situation.

FoS Passdog

: lurking.

(This will be my last post for the near future; in a day or two I'll probably write something about the main arguments against me, as well as about which of you I think are the scum. I have seven people against me now and it looks reasonably likely that I'll be lynched. We need to get as much information out of this as we can.)

[Fiasco]

Hmmm... eight out of eight people suspecting me now. Groupthink much?

Some miscellaneous comments; a more systematic game analysis post is still in the pipeline.

LoudmouthLee, I never believed there were four scum in one group -- that was a misinterpretation on Aelyn's part. It's very clear from the death scene that we don't have one unified scum group. There were two kills, one of them strongly suggesting a fundamentalist-christian SK and one of them strongly suggesting a mafia group. This makes your claim that I have inside information about a unified four-person scum group rather bizarre; your (possible) attempt to spread confusion about the game setup is noted.

Jaguar, Aelyn announced his intention to vote for me soon; apparently, he believes the evidence is sufficient for a fourth vote. That, to me, is suspicious.

On lurker-hunting: I agree with KingPin. Lurker-hunting is an essential part of pro-town strategy, if only for metagame reasons, and that LoudmouthLee is attacking KingPin for it does not make LoudmouthLee look good. I disagree with the vote on Jaguar, because of the post in V/LA and because she wasn't quiet for that long a time. (However, you can't tell from what the forum shows you that someone is on for just two seconds.) I agree with the vote on Passdog; we don't know that his lurking is unintentional, and it can't hurt.

[Fiasco]

Agreed: that's probably an even better type of lurker vote. From that perspective I'm actually very happy with my vote on draygn_mage.

[Fiasco]

Since the bandwagon on me seems to have lost a lot of momentum, I will defend myself less and attack others more than I had planned.

First, some defense.

I can see how my behavior seemed defensive (he said defensively): I did respond a lot, sometimes a bit angrily, and I did overstate the danger in my bandwagon somewhat. Partly this is a matter of playing style: I tend to be overly active on a per-game basis, and I genuinely don't see the harm in making a quick comment, one-liner or not, whenever checking the thread. Partly it's because I was in an irritated mood then, due to what I perceived (and mostly still perceive) as a nonsense bandwagon on me, as well as due to other reasons. (Aelyn compared me to "a trapped mongoose, flurrying around in an attempt to escape but all the while just drawing more and more attention"; it felt more like being under attack by mosquitoes, frantically wielding a flyswatter.) Partly it's because the votes on me were piling up within hours; it looked more threatening then than it does in hindsight.

I feel that I've already responded adequately to the whole "assuming" fiasco, which is what all three votes against me were originally based on. I indicated incomplete certainty about something that I would be uncertain about as scum, and uncertain about as town, but slightly more uncertain about as scum than as town. That, IMHO, is a very weak tell at most, especially considering the WIFOM factor: if I were scum worrying about a guilty cop investigation, I would have no motive to make any mention of this.

Now for the attack. Who looks (un)scummy?

Don Gaetano:

I thought he looked scummy for FoSing me for a bad reason and then lurking; however, he claims the lurking was because of time constraints, and his low activity level means that he will be hard to judge. He also thinks I'm innocent now, which earns him Townie Points from my perspective (but maybe not yours). I'm not sure what to think of the Gaetano-vs-Jaguar argument.

LoudmouthLee:

An interesting case. He gets points for being an active and aggressive player, which is risky for scum. On the other hand, since he's supposed to be a Mafia God, I hold him to high standards. He mostly hasn't lived up to them in this game. He instigated the bandwagon because of the "assuming" thing that he didn't really defend later. Later he accused me of having info about a four-scum group, which is very improbable. He also argued against lurker hunts.

draygn_mage:

Still my favorite target. Jumped onto the bandwagon citing his own mistake in another game (but from what I can tell from a quick look, it wasn't really similar -- he said "cop" when he should have said "claimed cop", which in my opinion is scummier than what I did), and didn't believe my true "first random vote" statement.

His only recent contribution was a joke, even though he's been very active elsewhere on the site, and there's been enough stuff to talk about.

vikingfan:

Third person on the bandwagon, but didn't seem really enthusiastic about it. Has announced that he will unvote if the lynch goes too quick; if it's going to come to that, and if he *doesn't* unvote, then he's going to look very scummy. Otherwise, not particularly.

Aelyn:

Has posted nothing but one attack on me, and has been the only player not averse to a fourth vote.


I have nothing interesting to say about the others; they don't look especially scummy or townish.

My main suspects right now are draygn_mage, LoudmouthLee, and Aelyn.

confirm vote: draygn_mage

.

[Fiasco]

Jaguar, read that sentence again, especially the seven words at the end.

[Fiasco]

You say that "scum wouldn't be that careless" and "yes, I would out myself on my first post" still seems like scum caught in headlights.

That was me being annoyed at an accusation of both scumminess AND stupidity.

Your alleged ability to detect scum from their first post, even if it were perfect, would only tell us something *if* we assumed you're pro-town, which may very well be false. To the extent that I think you're a capable scum-finder, I also think you're a scum, because from your very first vote you've been attacking someone I (and only I) know to be pro-town.

My notes in my games got crossed, and I did post a correction mere hours later.

That wasn't really a correction, and you posted it only when you got called on it. But this isn't the point! The point is that you, believing that I assumed four unified scum,

thought this was because I had inside information

, which in turn would imply that it was

actually true

, when it

clearly wasn't true because of the death scene

. If you were pro-town rather than a scum looking to spread confusion, the logical conclusion would have been that, if I believed in four unified scum, I would be either mistaken, or deliberately spreading lies,

not

that I knew the truth and chose to post about it.

[Fiasco]

Except that it's 6 to lynch, not 7.

[Fiasco]

Actually, I'm at two votes now, due to draygn_mage's unvote.

I'm not sure what Passdog meant here:

As he himself has stated there are six to lynch - in my mind that would make four the critical number not three.

If that means four is safe and five is not, then I don't agree. If it means three is safe and four is not, then I agree, but then it would make sense for me to say the fourth vote may be scum.

Other than that, Passdog is voting me purely for a high posting rate (one reason for which is that literally everyone has been attacking me).

FoS Passdog

, because you can't just bandwagon people for being active.

[Fiasco]

You mean the one that says this?

I’m not saying all the Townies should shut up, every game. That’s incorrect, as it would encourage Mafias being silent as well, and help them blend in the crowd.

I always took that guide more as meaning "don't pretend to have special information" than "be as boring as possible".

Also, that guide applies only to vanilla townies. I may or may not be one.

My posts are "providing room for the mafia to hide in"

only if you let them

by lurking and by letting lurkers get away with it.

What makes for good pro-town posting habits is an interesting discussion, but I'm getting the feeling that you're voting me

just because I annoy you

, not because you think I'm more likely to act like this as scum than as town. If you look at past games where I was town (newbie-143, nativity mafia), you'll find that I acted the same way.

[Fiasco]

confirm vote: draygn_mage

. That was a blatant bandwagon-hop; if you were pro-town, you would at least have explained what in Aelyn's long summary convinced you that I was scum.

I reread the game yesterday and I now acknowledge that I did come across as rather defensive; still, you guys are blowing it way out of proportion. I'll reply to some details later, but

strong FoS: Aelyn

for a highly tendentious game writeup in which he didn't even address the point that he's been in a game with me before, and my posting style there was similar. (Unless I've missed that.)

[Fiasco]

Also, I'm not "back" at four votes; I'm at four votes for the first time.

[Fiasco]

OK, instead of "bandwagon hopping", make that whatever you call quickly jumping onto someone's bandwagon with essentially nothing more than a "me too".

You still haven't stated your reasons for fourth-voting me; is it the "assuming" thing?

[Fiasco]

Before you decide whether or not to push me for a claim, I still owe you a response to some points in Aelyn's dreadnought. I will probably not get around to posting much in the next few days (busy), but I'll try to post that response.

In the mean time I feel it's worth pointing out that, while I've been in non-newbie games before, I replaced into a fairly late stage into those games. Until this game I hadn't been able to form any intuitions on bandwagons.

I think it's a shame LML is intentionally posting less. This is how hunting active posters (whether because they post more total scum tells given the same scum tell rate, or because the activity itself is seen as scummy) helps kill games.

I'd like to point at draygn_mage again: it's become clear now that he never had a reason for his fourth-vote on me, other than the conveniently vague reason that my posts seem "off" and "not quite right".

[Fiasco]

That's the great thing about this game. i can vote my gut all I want.

Quoted For Embarrassment

[Fiasco]

Passdog: I'm not arguing the "newbie" thing should exempt me from lynches, just that it provides an alternative explanation for the no-nos that I apparently committed in reacting to my bandwagon. Likewise I'm not arguing my earlier playing style proves me innocent; I posted a lot in the game where I was scum (Simple Sicily) too. I'm just arguing you can't use the playing style as evidence for my guilt. At most it may help you justify a meta-game vote to get me to change my behavior.

Norinel: No, of course we shouldn't

ignore

scum tells; it's just that if scum tells were selected from a larger number of posts, we ought to give them less weight in estimating scumminess. Once again, someone with two tells in four posts is scummier than someone with three tells in ten posts, even though all three tells should be pointed out. I'd have thought this was uncontroversial, but apparently not.

Not much time to spend on mafia in the recent past and near future; sorry.

[Fiasco]

Now THAT is interesting, and it confirms all my suspicions.

unvote, vote Aelyn

I'm not sure I would have claimed with the doc dead, but I'll let the others debate the wisdom of that. Don Gaetano, to the extent that bone-headedness on my part forced you to reveal yourself, I'm very sorry.

If this claim is true, it makes both LoudmouthLee and draygn_mage (and to a much lesser extent Jaguar, KingPin and vikingfan) look bad.

[Fiasco]

Now that is EVEN MORE interesting.

How many times did I say Aelyn was NOT the lynch today?

Exactly once.

LML, you'll have to admit that everything DG has said until now SCREAMS "I'm a cop with a guilty result on Aelyn". If he's a scum cop, he's prepared this very well. And it's pretty strange that it turns out you investigated the exact same person out of eleven possible targets.

My preferred explanation is that LML and Aelyn are scum together. Non-sane cops seem less likely, and a scummy DG also seems less likely.

[Fiasco]

sorry for double-posting;

If he's a scum cop

should have said "if he's a scum pretending to be a cop", obviously.

LML gets points for counterclaiming within an hour. On the other hand I don't see what DG did making much sense for a scum.

[Fiasco]

If one of you is non-sane, then we have no information about Aelyn that we didn't have before the claims. His death will give us possibly useful information, but he isn't more likely to be scum than he was before the claims.

[Fiasco]

(sorry for double-posting AGAIN...)

LML, DG, why did you choose Aelyn to investigate?

LML, what's your opinion on your sanity? What's your opinion on DG's sanity and alignment?

[Fiasco]

we have a unique situation on our hands.

In my first mafia game, two people actually claimed a guilty investigation on Aelyn (one real, one fake).

One thing we should do before lynching Aelyn is discuss whether both LML and DG might be scum. I'm not sure that would make any sense, but I haven't heard the possibility mentioned yet.

[Fiasco]

unvote

That was five, and I still need time to think! Aelyn is now at four.

[Fiasco]

This situation is complicated enough that it would benefit the town to THINK THINGS OVER before lynching. Aelyn's nightkill-immune claim does sound rather like a serial killer. I still think Aelyn's probably the correct lynch, but LML, why in the heck are you almost-lynching him this fast? We haven't even heard from everyone yet.

[Fiasco]

Hm, you're saying it's a miscount? That was really careless.

[Fiasco]

I think a "WTF" is in order here.

[Fiasco]

We've just gained three new pieces of information a few hours ago -- DG claims to be a cop with a guilty result on Aelyn, LML claims to be a cop with an innocent result on Aelyn, Aelyn claims to be nightkill-immune. And LML is pushing bandwagons around like mad, first putting a (mistaken?) fifth vote on Aelyn and then an unexplained fourth vote back on me? I don't get it. We've got a lot of new information to process, and the right move is to calm the heck down. Both Aelyn and LML seem horribly scummy to me, but is there a combination of SK/mafia alignments that would make their behavior make any sense?

[Fiasco]

LML just inexplicably jumped back onto my bandwagon, so maybe he's hoping two other scum will jump in to speedlynch me, unlikely though that seems. In view of this, Aelyn, would you mind putting your unvote where your mouth is?

[Fiasco]

Current favorite theory: Aelyn is the SK, LML is a mafia, DG is a sane cop. LML, knowing that Aelyn was not in the mafia, thought DG could be insane, and thought it was worth the risk to claim an innocent result; if Aelyn turned out to be the SK, LML could always claim to be insane himself.

Evidence later and I still need to do a reread to see whether this makes sense.

Response to LML:

Or maybe I'm just annoyed because I made a mistake, posted it (before mention was made)

"Before mention was made"? When you admitted the mistake, both Aelyn and I had pointed out Aelyn was at five. Moreover, I had already unvoted. This is consistent with the possibility that you intended to put Aelyn at five, hoping that the lynch would happen quickly. The miscount claim could then be either something you planned, or something you came up with spontaneously when it looked like the speedlynch wouldn't work.

and then see you throw suspicion around?

I didn't even do that in the post you quoted when voting me; I just said your miscount was careless. It

was

careless, because if you weren't corrected it could have meant a lynch when a scum came along.

You're obviously not thinking, Fiasco, The other two scum to speedlynch you? Wouldn't that be obvious?

WIFOM. Also, maybe the SK could be a speedlynch participant. And there could be any number of surprises (for the town) in the setup. Putting someone at four votes just for personal annoyance is simply a bad idea in a situation like this; that's why I thought there must be another reason.

But yeah, I did say it was unlikely; I just wasn't sure, and it didn't seem completely impossible.

[Fiasco]

Here's something interesting. The mod posted a vanilla townie PM. I always thought this was to prevent people from gaining anything by PM-quoting or PM-hinting, because other than masons who know each other anyway, vanilla townies are the only role of which there's more than one in the game. This was true the one time I've been in a game with such a PM posted.

Of course, it's

possible

that there's two people with the same role PM who are neither masons nor townies; in that case you would have to rely on the "do not quote the mod's PMs" rule to prevent abuse. But it's something to think about.

Some questions for LML:

* Aelyn already asked this one, but you didn't answer: is there anything in your role to suggest inaccuracies?
* Can you self-investigate?
* If you think I'm mafia, what do you think Aelyn's alignment is? Do you seriously think I'm the best lynch at this point?

[Fiasco]

You "still" think Aelyn's innocent? This is news to me.

As of right now, dollars to donuts, DG's sane, I'm not.

[Fiasco]

This is interesting, because if you're sane, then Aelyn is unnightkillable. I'm not sure what that does for our chances of victory, but it has to be good. And I can see only one way to find out whether you're right while keeping Aelyn alive.

I say we take off and lynch LML from orbit. It's the only way to be sure.

(Actually, no... having an unnightkillable townie wouldn't guarantee us a draw, and the whole story just isn't believable enough. But it's another option to think about.)

[Fiasco]

He hasn't yet said whether his role PM suggests sanity, so if we found him innocent, that wouldn't necessarily prove Aelyn guilty. (Don Gaetano, same questions for you as for LML, obviously: does your role PM suggest sanity? can you self-investigate?)

Also, I think his claim is much more believable.

[Fiasco]

Here's something else we need to think about. Would we prefer to lynch a mafioso or an SK? It depends on how likely we think they are to kill each other, instead of us.

I have some more reasons to suspect Aelyn, but it's better if I don't mention them until he's online.

[Fiasco]

Apologies for the triple post, but if I don't correct myself, others will:

It depends on how likely we think they are to kill each other, instead of us.

It depends on how likely the SK is to target the mafia. If we think the SK will target the mafia, we should probably try to lynch a mafioso; if we think the SK will target the town, we should try to lynch the SK.

[Fiasco]

Really? because I counterclaimed within the hour?

That's a point in your favor, but there are more important points in DG's favor:

* as the first player to claim, he doesn't have the strange coincidence to explain about both of you choosing Aelyn
* his pre-claim hints have been more blatant
* IMHO he hasn't behaved as scummily as you
* IMHO Aelyn is likely to be scum for other reasons

[Fiasco]

Your defense of Lee is noted. And may I remind everyone, AGAIN, that BEFORE lynching Aelyn, we still have at least four people to hear from (including DG) and several things to discuss?

[Fiasco]

First let me say that Fiasco is acting scummy and like an idiot, no doubt about it.

Like KingPin, you haven't given any arguments for this whatsoever. I deny having said a single scummy word since at least your cop claim, and I'm shocked that anyone could read the exchanges between me and LML and see *me* as the scummy one.

(LoudmouthLee thinks I'm scum and Aelyn is town. I unvoted a claimed nightkill-immune townie when he was at five votes; if I were scum and he were town (or SK), why wouldn't I just sit back and let people lynch him immediately? WIFOM, but still.)

The fact that LML even mentioned that the phrase "sanity unknown" is absent makes me 95% sure that LML is pro-town, that we most likely got the same PM,

But LML thinks he's sane because of his PM! Clearly you can't both be sane, so something weird must be going on.

Also, how often do these PMs explicitly say "sanity unknown"? I'd say not very often.

Lynching claimed power roles day one is a bad idea, m'kay?

That's an odd thing to say for someone who would like to see a claimed power role lynched.

This is an exceptional case where you actually have to think instead of using rules of thumb, m'kay? I'm not saying we should lynch LML (you didn't quote the "actually, no" part of my post), but it's worth thinking about, because if he's so sure he's sane, then in the unlikely case that he's innocent, we would have ourselves a confirmed-innocent bulletproof townie. And it *is* very unlikely that he's innocent, because that would mean we have a non-sane cop in a "basic" game with just a townie pm given, AND it would mean he chose the same target out of eleven by coincidence, AND it would mean all the constant anti-town play on the part of a supposed mafia god was just an honest mistake.

Would LML as scum need more than a few minutes to decide to counterclaim?

I don't know, actually. What happened proves he didn't think about it for more than an hour. That's a point in his favor, but you're right that it's not all that strong.

[Fiasco]

Aelyn, what's your role name and why didn't you state it spontaneously? (Quoting your role name is legal, right?)

[Fiasco]

Do you see where it says "lynch LML"? The "actually, no" part doesn't seem to support you not advocating this outcome.

I intended it as saying, "actually, no, I do *not* say we lynch LML, but it *is* another option to think about". How did you read it?

And as LML pointed out, you were/are trying to lynch a claimed cop!

"Don't lynch a claimed cop" is just a slogan, a rule-of-thumb. I was calling LML out on his bluff: if his PM implies that he's sane, then if we lynch him, even in the worst case we still get a confirmed-innocent unkillable townie.

Also it's unfair to say I'm

trying

to lynch LML. He's been at zero votes for a while now. I'm just trying to discuss our options. Aelyn is still my favorite target for today, but we should think about it.

In addition, when you suggest that it is odd for Aelyn to want to lynch a claimed power role, which player are you referring to?

I'm referring to Aelyn. Aelyn seemed to be saying that since we shouldn't lynch claimed power roles, Aelyn is a better lynch than LML, but that doesn't follow, because Aelyn is claiming a powerful role for himself.

[Fiasco]

Passdog, see #184

Don Gaetano, that's interesting. I was going to say my current favorite theory was that Aelyn is a godfather with a (possibly one-shot) nightkill immunity but without cop immunity, LML is a mafia goon, and you're a sane cop. Your point makes Aelyn somewhat more likely to be innocent (though always be careful in outguessing the mod).

It still bothers me that LML says based on his PM that he has to believe he's sane, and that you're saying it's probably the same PM. This can't both be true, so which of you is wrong? And the "sanity unknown" thing really doesn't impress me; saying that's not in there is only a very small risk.

Aelyn, why didn't you state your role name spontaneously? Why didn't you say why when I asked you? I'm not asking because I'm mad at you and want an apology; I'm asking because I want to know.

[Fiasco]

Question to LML: if you think I'm scum and Aelyn's town, how do you explain #149? Do you agree that if this scenario is true, I just made a huge sacrifice by probably saving the only unnightkillable player from a lynch?

Question to Don Gaetano: once again, can you self-investigate?

[Fiasco]

EBWOP

if this scenario is true, I just made a huge sacrifice

actually not so huge, because Aelyn seemed likely to be lynched later anyway.

[Fiasco]

In theory DG and LML could both be lying, but unless draygn_mage (are you there, draygn_mage?) counterclaims, it's safe to rule out that possibility.

[Fiasco]

So have people lost interest in the game, or what?

As much as I think Fiasco looks scummy

I always enjoy opinions more when they're backed with facts and logic, but I suppose you can't argue about taste.

Not even one

of you has bothered to address the logic behind a possible LML lynch.

I feel I am a better lynch than LML.

It's kind of interesting that you feel this, because if you're pro-town you

know

you're a powerful pro-town role, whereas you only

suspect

LML is a powerful pro-town role. (And the berserk episode LML just had on pages 6-7, as well as his earlier behavior, strongly suggest otherwise. He almost got you speedlynched!)

This is probably going to enrage some people again, but here's another advantage to lynching LML. It's unlikely (IMHO) that either LML or Aelyn is the SK, meaning there will be two nightkill attempts no matter what. The obvious targets are LML and DG. If we lynch LML, it becomes more likely that the scum will waste a nightkill by both attacking DG (and who knows, DG might even have a doc protect).

Or in other words, even if we don't lynch LML, we may lose him to a nightkill anyway. This is emphatically

not

true of Aelyn: if we lynch Aelyn today, and Aelyn is innocent, then we're losing a power role we could

never

have lost otherwise.

It's worth thinking about, in a way that's not just "OMG!!! COPLYNCHER!!! kneejerkkneejerkkneejerk".

[Fiasco]

and the quite possible one of both being insane, one way or another.

"Quite possible"? I've never seen that before, and having two non-sane cops would be a huge disadvantage for the town. (Let's be exact in our terminology: an "insane" cop is one that gets reversed results, a "non-sane" cop is a cop who doesn't always get correct results.)

Of course, if you're innocent and we assume all cops are insane/naive/paranoid, LML has to be naive and DG either insane or paranoid.

[Fiasco]

Come to think of it, if there's no sane cop (and I know you're not saying there isn't, just that it's possible) then the most logical explanation of what's happened is that DG is insane/paranoid and LML jumped in with a fake innocent result on someone he knew is not in the mafia. That would make you (Aelyn) probably innocent, and it would again make LML the correct lynch.

But I do think there is a sane cop in the game, so the above argument isn't strong.

[Fiasco]

Sorry about this, but I keep having new thoughts

someone he knew is not in the mafia

, or someone he knew is the mafia godfather.

[Fiasco]

logically, Aelyn is the best lynch today. It will at least give our doc a good target to protect and force the scum and SK to hit one person and not two.

That makes no sense whatsoever. If we lynch Aelyn, there will be two obvious nightkill targets: LML and DG. This will lead to either one or two dead claimed cops; if there's a doctor, one or zero. On the other hand, if we lynch LML, there will be one obvious nightkill target: DG. This will lead to one dead claimed cop; if there's a doctor, zero. (I'm assuming the mafia and SK don't mutually coordinate their kills; be on the lookout for anyone trying to do so.) We'll also have lynched the other claimed cop, but as a compensation, if LML is innocent, we'll have a confirmed unnightkillable townie.

If you want to kill off ALL power roles, lynching Aelyn is your best bet. I've come to the conclusion that Aelyn is probably a bad lynch at this point. Lynching LML doesn't seem to be politically feasible and might be a bad idea based on his cop claim, so maybe the best feasible lynch is a scummy looking player who has not claimed a power role; say, Mage or Dog. If no other players are scummy enough, maybe even a no-lynch. (I can say that, since I'm already at the lowest possible level of popularity anyway.) I'll need to think about whether I myself might a better lynch than Aelyn.

If we have two cops, one is going to be nightkilled soon, anyway; if we have no doctor, two. A bulletproof townie, on the other hand, lasts until lynched. And the inevitable cop nightkills will either clear him, or prove him scum, in which case we can go ahead and lynch him the next day.

A lot of this depends on how sure LML is, based on his PM, that he's sane. LML, please post.

[Fiasco]

No, in the worst case, Aelyn is a SK and LML is our sane cop that we just lynched.

For that worst case to be true, Aelyn would have to be an SK

with cop immunity as an extra ability

. And Aelyn hasn't behaved like an SK; he seems too inclined to sacrifice himself, whether that's for the scum or for the town.

I'm starting to think that you, being a scum and already knowing who the right cop is, are trying to advocate something which is extremely harmful to the town as a whole.

This just makes no sense. If I'm scum, then a confirmed-innocent bulletproof townie is my worst nightmare. If I'm a scum who knows Lee to be sane, then I also know Aelyn to be innocent, and Lee's death will (more or less) confirm Aelyn's innocence for everyone. Why would I go out of my way (and invite suspicion) to save Aelyn from a lynch?

[Fiasco]

That's also true of Don Gaetano, and yet you can't both be sane.

[Fiasco]

Was this an intentional lie or an honest mistake, then?

After re-reading my PM, I have to believe I'm sane.

[Fiasco]

Fiasco is MAFIA, he knows the Aelyn is INNOCENT

This is insane. If I'm mafia and Aelyn is innocent, then why did I unvote him when he was at five? Wouldn't I have wanted to sit back and let people lynch the only player I couldn't nightkill? Why am I putting myself at risk trying to get someone else than him lynched?

[Fiasco]

When I re-read at the time of your quoted post, I didn't see anything that could be figured that way.

I'm sorry, but I'm going to keep hammering on this. How do you go from the absence of suggestions that you're non-sane, to "I have to believe I'm sane"? Do you agree with me that if Don Gaetano has the same PM, your cop result actually is no evidence that Aelyn's innocent? If so, how are you so sure Aelyn's innocent? Because you're mafia, perhaps?

[Fiasco]

WIFOM, same thing you told me. You see, Fiasco, this whole town should have lynched you well before any of this happened. You think, for a moment, I wanted to come out with the damn doctor dead? And you're still pushing for my lynch? I needed to stop a lynch that, in my mind, would have HURT the town instead of help it. Instead, I continually have to listen to your worthless drivel about lynching a CLAIMED COP.

Question to the experienced players here: does LML usually get all angry and incoherent when attacked as a pro-townie? What about as a scum?

You think, for a moment, I wanted to come out with the damn doctor dead? (...) I needed to stop a lynch that, in my mind, would have HURT the town instead of help it.

You mean you came out because you felt you had to stop that lynch where you PLACED THE FIFTH VOTE? This is a blatant lie.

vote: LoudmouthLee

(Jaguar, I need to go offline now but will answer your points later.)

[Fiasco]

Oh my! D2 is going to be fun.

Before this whole thread degenerates into a hate-Fiasco-gasm, I should explain that (since most of you seem incapable of rationally assessing the advantages of a Lee lynch ) I'm OK with an Aelyn lynch now if no one else has any objections. (Except that if he's innocent, you'll probably lynch me the next day, and then the town is small enough that it's almost certainly dead. Hrm. Assuming I'm innocent, what would you do in my position?)

I still think the LML lynch is probably our best option, so here goes.

WIFOM, same thing you told me.

It's possible I told you that (though I don't remember). But there are different kinds of WIFOM argument. Consider the case of a single scum in an endgame with two townies. If one townie votes for the scum, and the other townie posts without voting for the scum, then that second townie is confirmed innocent. It's a sort of WIFOM argument to say, "if I were the scum, I'd have voted him and killed him", but it's a valid argument, because the townie passed up what would be a chance to win the game if he were scum. WIFOM arguments are valid to the extent that they involve real sacrifices by the alleged scum. That I unvoted Aelyn at five and started advocating lynching you was a real sacrifice on my part if I were scum, because in that case my situation would be a lot better if I had just let Aelyn be lynched. It's not nearly as clear-cut as the townie-townie-scum-endgame example, but it's still fairly good evidence for my innocence.

I'm not sure I follow this line of reasoning. Who is to say that our mighty mod will let us know which cop is of what sanity?

I agree we'll probably not be told cop sanities. I was still sort of going by the assumption that LML's role PM implied he was sane (blame him), but even without that assumption, we can get a pretty good idea of Aelyn's alignment. If we have only one cop, that cop is

probably

sane, so if LML is town and we later learn DG is scum (through his death or whatever), that more or less clears Aelyn. If we have two cops, then one of them is

probably

sane, so if LML is town and DG turns out to be non-sane (through his results or whatever), that more or less clears Aelyn. On the other hand if DG turns out to be sane (through his results or whatever), then Aelyn is scum. If LML turns up scum, then DG is

probably

sane, so that more or less proves Aelyn scum. Etc etc etc. It's not

absolute

certainty, but it comes reasonably close IMHO.

I have to go offline again now, but there's still a lot I'd like to respond to later.

[Fiasco]

First off, all my previous post number references should be decreased by 1 due to the deletion of Speedy's post.

Second, no one has commented on a probable Lee lie:

You think, for a moment, I wanted to come out with the damn doctor dead? And you're still pushing for my lynch? I needed to stop a lynch that, in my mind, would have HURT the town instead of help it.

later explaining:

I found Aelyn INNOCENT. I felt a need to stop that lynch. I made a decision (to vote for Aelyn)

He claims he felt a need to stop Aelyn's lynch that was so strong that it made him come out, even though he

really

didn't want to come out. And yet a few hours later, when Aelyn had accumulated some more votes, he was wholeheartedly pushing that same bandwagon! That his vote was a fifth vote may or may not have been due to a genuine miscount, but in any case he didn't seem interested in thinking things over before lynching Aelyn. This, and the fact that there is nothing he said between the cop claims and his Aelyn vote about not wanting Aelyn to be lynched, suggests to me he is simply a scum who (in the heat of an argument with me) misremembered his story behind his cop claim.

I may or may not have time to post more in a moment. If so that may mean a double post. Apologies in advance.

[Fiasco]

"Quite possible"? I've never seen that before, and having two non-sane cops would be a huge disadvantage for the town.

Without the context of the rest of the setup, assumptions based on balance are generally unhelpful.

I don't really agree. It may be true that the town has a huge hidden advantage to compensate, but I think mods don't just balance on a global, whole-game scale; they also try not to make the individual elements extremely powerful or extremely anti-powerful. And I think they're right, because games with extremely powerful elements compensating extremely anti-powerful elements are harder to judge and more likely to swing all the way in one direction.

If we lynch Aelyn, there will be two obvious nightkill targets: LML and DG.

There will be one much more obvious nightkill target- whichever of LML or DG got a correct result.

That's a good point, but there are some caveats. Mafia-SK crossfire is one of them. Mafia-SK nightkill coordination is another (I could explain, but I'm not going to give them tips.)

Granting your point, though, it still seems to me lynching LML is better.

Let's say scum don't coordinate, and both attack the most obvious target.

Let's say we have no doctor,

or

a doctor that can protect against only one attack (which seems like the standard case, especially for backups). Then if we lynch Aelyn, we lose a claimed coward, and we lose the sane cop that night. We're left with a non-sane claimed cop. On the other hand, if we lynch LML, we lose both claimed cops, and we're left with a claimed coward, whose alignment we will have a good idea about now that we know the cop alignments.

Now let's say we have a doctor who can protect against multiple attacks (unlikely, IMHO). Then if we lynch Aelyn, we're left with a non-sane claimed cop and a sane claimed cop. On the other hand, if we lynch LML, we're left either with a probably sane cop and a confirmed-guilty Aelyn, or with an unclear (probably fake) cop and a probably innocent Aelyn.

The second case (multiple-heal doc) is hard to judge (it depends on your views on people's alignments), but possibly favors the Aelyn lynch. The first case (no doc, or single-heal doc) is more important, because it looks more likely. And that first case presents a choice between a cop (who will possibly be nightkilled next night!) of uncertain alignment and certain non-sanity on the one hand (by lynching Aelyn), and a mostly-confirmed bulletproof townie (or catching two scum!) on the other hand (by lynching LML). Seems to me this strongly favors the LML lynch, as a bulletproof townie is a big endgame advantage.

That was probably horribly unclear, but the gist of it is that we'll probably lose our sane cop anyway, so the claimed bulletproof is more important to preserve by not lynching him.

[Fiasco]

Don't get mad at me for the multi-post; it turns out there are some more things to mention.

Here's an interesting recent LML statement from a thread in Mafia Discussion:

I perfer to NOT random vote ever.

And yet he thinks I should have been lynched for saying "(Assuming it was random)"?

Don Gaetano, I do think that's a useful piece of evidence, but I think if you consider both Aelyn and LML confirmed innocents, you're reading too much into it. There's no reason to think Aelyn didn't see the game; there's no reason to think Aelyn couldn't have looked into LB's history when thinking of a claim; there's no reason to think LB wouldn't intentionally (not) put things into the game to prevent us from outguessing him; it's even possible Aelyn got the "coward" thing as a safe claim. And even if Aelyn is confirmed innocent, that doesn't quite confirm LML, as it's possible we have just an insane cop.

Norinel, I think given the current climate it's almost certain I'll be lyched if Aelyn turns up innocent; and in that case we'll lose two pro-townies due to lynches (leaving four),

plus

two nights of nightkills (leaving between zero and four). Crossfire or not, I think our situation is extremely bad then.

[Fiasco]

I didn't want to come out. Why would a cop want to come out?

I agree you wouldn't want to come out as a cop; that's not where I thought you were lying.

You think, for a moment, I wanted to come out with the damn doctor dead? And you're still pushing for my lynch? I needed to stop a lynch that, in my mind, would have HURT the town instead of help it.

I found Aelyn INNOCENT. I felt a need to stop that lynch.

Yes, I initally wanted to lynch Aelyn.

Lynch all liars. Vote stands.

I'm still curious, because, humbly speaking, you have done a VERY POOR job of explaining why you rather a lynch of me over DG.

I answered this question in an earlier post, the one with four points. I still agree with those points, mostly. I agree that DG looks a bit scummier now than then, but still not nearly as scummy as you.

So, you're basically saying that I'm a damn fool, and so is Kingpin, DG, Passdog, and any other person that's incredibly suspicious of you.

Your attempt to verbally abuse people on my behalf is noted. I think some of the people you mention are scum, and some of them are confused townies.

How would you have any clue about Aelyn's allignment if you lose both claimed cops (I'm a cop. DG is my question mark.) In this case, you'll have lost both cops (again, assumption: DG is a cop), and NO COP HAS A SECOND RESULT!

I think one of you will turn up scum. Other than that there was the thing about your PM implying you're sane, but since you seem to be retracting that, yeah, if you're both innocent we'll have to assess Aelyn's alignment based on his actions, so that's one of the weak points in the Lynch LML strategy.

[Fiasco]

I see Fiasco still hasn't explained why he likes the lynch of LML so much over DG.

See #174

I would recommend a fiasco claim before we go to night anyway.

Alright, I'm hereby claiming Fiasco. Any counterclaims?

[Fiasco]

After some rereading, I'm less sure of LML's guilt, but I still think

the Aelyn lynch is a bad idea

. The main objection to lynching LML is that he may be a sane cop. But

if LML is a sane cop, Aelyn is a valuable bulletproof townie, and LML will probably be nightkilled anyway

.

If a third of all games like this one have backup docs, and a third of these backup docs are multi-docs, then in eight out of nine cases, we get a nightkill. Our cops simply aren't going to do us much good now that they're out. That makes Aelyn our most useful claimed role.

[Fiasco]

You know at this point I am about to get out a coin and see who I should vote for based on that.

unvote, vote draygn_mage

[Fiasco]

Now that LML seems to have changed his mind

again

, we have one claimed cop trying to lynch the person he found innocent, and another claimed cop desperately trying to save the person he found guilty. Pretty hilarious, if you ask me.

The fifth vote is scummy again, IMHO (don't say it was another miscount). Aelyn deserves an unvote (from anyone), so we can continue the discussion and so Aelyn himself can be sure of having a final say (draygn_mage might jump in as soon as he gets online). Haven't heard from Aelyn in a while.

FoS

also on those who didn't unvote him (KingPin, vikingfan, Norinel) for shortening a useful day. (Norinel seems pro-town to me otherwise, though.)

I'm not sure whether Aelyn's the right lynch; still doubt it, though I may have overestimated a coward's endgame usefulness earlier.

Actually, the coward loses a big portion of his power as well by claiming- the ability to get attacked and block a scum kill. As it stands, he's just a voice and vote that we might assume to be on the town's side and not going anywhere.

I don't know... there's the possibility of the scum wasting kills by testing him, and the fact that a coward increases the chance of mafia-SK crossfire, and endgame things like getting a draw in a one mafia vs one coward situation. All things considered he seems more useful than a cop who'll probably die next night.

Passdog just went down on my scum-meter (especially the SK part of my scum-meter) for thinking and for not lynching Aelyn.

[Fiasco]

(Sorry for double-posting; with the day possibly ending any moment, there's no way I'm going to save comments for tomorrow.)

Passdog, what you call "insane" is usually called "random", what you call "reversed" is usually called "insane", and what you call "gullible" is usually called "naive". This may clear up some confusion about earlier posts.

I'm pretty sure the SK is one among KingPin, vikingfan, Jaguar, Norinel and draygn_mage (mafia, take note). Aelyn doesn't seem very interested in not dying (

FoS Aelyn

for that). LML and DG's cop claims make no sense for an SK. Passdog, DG and I have all had the opportunity to lynch Aelyn, but argued against it. It seems extremely hard for an SK to win with a coward in the game.

[Fiasco]

I notice you're not unvoting. Why not? Don't you think we're still having productive discussion? I've heard that long days are good for the town.

Once again, it seems extremely hard for an SK to win with a coward in the game. It'd have to be a mafia-coward-SK endgame, and the mafia would have to vote for the coward (why?), and the SK would have to win by default when everyone's dead. Either that, or some foolish townie would have to vote for the coward.

I could have been on the Aelyn bandwagon long ago without looking suspicious. He'd probably be dead by now. I just don't think he's the right lynch.

[Fiasco]

Fan and Pin: the important thing is that

our sane cop probably won't survive the night

, so most information gained from Aelyn's death becomes useless immediately.

Fan: endgame SK possibilities are relevant because they tell us something about the SK's current behavior. If Aelyn stays alive, the SK can probably no longer win (though the mafia can), and if we lynch someone else than Aelyn, then Aelyn may be confirmed innocent for practical purposes. It's a good possibility that

not lynching Aelyn today will cost the SK the win

. Saying WIFOM doesn't completely refute this, because people may still think the SK is the mafia; that's why IMHO the SK doesn't have as much to gain by using WIFOM logic as by lynching Aelyn. (Though come to think of it, the SK will want to avoid mafia nightkills as well as lynches.)

Fan and Lee: I think Aelyn may be guilty. That I don't want to see him lynched doesn't mean I think he's innocent; just that lynching him is bad if he is innocent.

Lee: I'm going to think more about the possibility that DG is scum, especially the possibility that he claimed to draw out the real cop. Only thing is, wouldn't he want to lynch Aelyn and nightkill you in that case? Like me, he could have been on the Aelyn bandwagon without looking suspicious, and yet he isn't.

[Fiasco]

I'm willing to let the scum sort out the cop problem for us.

Does this strike anyone else as a scum comment? A lot of people are arguing we can sort out the cop problem by lynching Aelyn; I'm arguing the cop problem is not worth sorting out, because they're dead anyway, and we can instead sort out the Aelyn problem by not lynching him; but the only way the

scum

are going to "sort out" the cop problem is by killing them off, sane/real one first.

[Fiasco]

By the way, let's give that Mptions person a break for once and question the "SCUM ALREADY KNOWS WHO IS SANE". How does the SK know who is sane? How does the mafia know (for certain) Aelyn isn't the SK? Have you considered that lynching Aelyn would give them all this information, allowing them both to target the sane cop and possibly bypass a doc-protect?

[Fiasco]

Anyone you DON'T find suspicious Fiasco?

There's no one I find completely unsuspicious, but Norinel and DG strike me as less scummy than others. I'm in a state of confusion: there seems to be good evidence for Aelyn's innocence, good evidence for Aelyn's guilt, good evidence for LML's innocence, and a mountain of evidence for LML's guilt.

Norinel, I agree another claim would be bad. The alternative is to lynch a claimed power role, though. And once again, we should

at least

hear from Aelyn.

Fiasco, in your mention of possible SK's you didn't mention either yourself or Aelyn. Why couldn't Aelyn be scum? Or once again, you yourself haven't endeared yourself to anyone in the game and if it weren't for this whole conundrum, I think you already would have been lynched.

This paragraph confuses me. I did mention Aelyn and myself as unlikely to be the SK. I agree Aelyn could be mafia. I agree people seem to think I'm scum, but I don't see the relevance to the SK question.

[Fiasco]

Still wanted to reply to this:

If: Aelyn is townie, then LML is either sane or scum who is incredibly stupid for counter-claiming the cop

If Aelyn is townie, then counterclaiming the cop may have made sense, because the correct result would gain LML trust and would make DG look suspicious.

If: Aelyn is scum, then LML is either insane, naive, or scum who is incredibly stupid for counter-claiming the cop

Except in Godfather cases, maybe.

Jaguar, Mage: Norinel meant a two-person endgame with one townie and one scum (either mafia OR SK), rather than a three-person endgame.

[Fiasco]

I agree.

A (backup) doc that protects against at most one attack

is

the standard case, isn't it? (If not, do correct me!) If so, then how is our sane cop ever going to survive after an Aelyn lynch? I don't think people have addressed this argument. Our sane cop is gonna die!

[Fiasco]

My current thinking is, maybe it's better if you lynch me today, since it's going to happen anyway, and you'll have more information for the next lynch. (Again, I don't think there will be a sane cop alive to clear me; if there is, he'll at least get to investigate someone else and maybe find a scum.) I mean this in a strategic rather than bitter sort of way.

OTOH, there's the possibility of the scum nightkilling me because they think I'm in the other scum group.

It's worth sorting out which of you is right about the doc protects (though the scum will also want to know).

Congratulations you managed to go a whole R-day without asking us to lynch a claimed cop!

And you didn't advocate lynching a claimed coward. Well done!

However, I am still wondering how you are helping the town? Seriously, how has your play helped the town?

It's too early to say how it's

actually

helped, but I think my play was mostly correct. I may have talked people out of an irrational Aelyn lynch; I may have caught LML as a scum; I've definitely put out a lot of logical points that help in making the correct decision.

I really don't like your assumptions as to how mafia or the sk will play tonight.

Yes, it does bother me the scum may have gotten information from that; maybe it was unwise. On the other hand, the scum are not stupid, and would probably have figured it out for themselves. Note that I'm going by assumptions that were originally brought up by Norinel.

Can you tell me why, without double/triple posting why draygn_mage is? I would like a solid post in support.

I'm still thinking about the correct lynch, so let me

unvote draygn_mage

.

What made me want to vote draygn_mage is he falsely accused me of lying, he lurked, and he jumped onto my bandwagon (4th vote) with a kind of "me too". Quotes like the following don't help:

That's the great thing about this game. i can vote my gut all I want.

You know at this point I am about to get out a coin and see who I should vote for based on that.

I'm willing to let the scum sort out the cop problem for us.

Aelyn's lack of posts disturbs me.

I may think of more to say, but since I wouldn't want to subject you to the excruciating agony that is seeing two posts in a row by the same person, I'll wait until someone else has posted.

[Fiasco]

Now Aelyn's lack of posts no longer disturbs me, but everyone else's does.

[Fiasco]

Because not posting one time you're on is

so

disturbing.

When one person does it? No. When everyone does it? Yes.

If any of the following happen:
1) Aelyn's the SK and there's another doc
2) Aelyn's the SK and the mafia attack someone else because they think there's another doc or for any of the other reasons explained below
3) Either of the killing groups don't kill for whatever reason (They can't, to set up a doc claim, just to confuse things), and a doc blocks the other kill or it targets someone else for any of the reasons given below.
4) The killing role(s) hit someone other than the now presumably sane claimed cop to make everyone think the presumably sane claimed cop is evil.
5) The killing role(s) hit someone other than the now presumably sane claimed cop to confuse the town.
6) The killing role(s) hit someone other than the now presumably sane claimed cop to find the potential other doc or a more useful power role.
7) The presumably sane claimed cop actually is evil, and is immune to the nightkill of the other killer, or the other killer hits someone else because they think there's a doc or to frame them, confuse the town, or hunt for the doc/a stronger role.
8) The town's useful cop is actually insane, the one who claimed and got a wrong result on Aelyn, so the scum, SK, and potential doc all hit the naive/paranoid other one.
9) The town's useful cop is neither LML nor DG, and just hasn't claimed yet. LML and DG are some combination of lying or naive/paranoid.

(I've taken the liberty of numbering these)

1) and 2) (Aelyn is SK) seem very unlikely. 7) and 8) don't actually leave a sane cop alive. 8) leaves an insane cop alive temporarily, but he may not be very useful due to the confusion. I was taking it for granted that 9) isn't true, i.e. that everyone else had claimed not-cop by now. 3-6) sound possible but unlikely.

It remains true that lynching Aelyn will inform the scum (esp. the SK) which cop is sane (or rather: got the correct result), so I'm not quite convinced.

[Fiasco]

Here's the thing, though: the only reason to claim from my perspective is that it may get me not lynched today. But I'm probably going to get lynched soon anyway, so I'm not convinced a Fiasco lynch today is that much worse than an Aelyn lynch. So why should I claim? What would you do if you were me, and you knew you were pro-town?

[Fiasco]

Passdog: I'm in the same situation, in that I think I already refuted the anti-Fiasco arguments in past posts. Specifically, I think I've shown why lynching LML isn't so unreasonable. (No one else has addressed the LML lying thing, for example.) I promised once to reply to some things in Aelyn's summary, but, bleh, that's so old now.

Unlike a few days ago, I no longer think we're having much useful discussion, so I guess it's up to all of you to decide whether to lynch me, or Aelyn, or come up with something new.

[Fiasco]

That's not including me, is it? I think I'm going to preserve my dignity and not participate in either lynch.

(PS I apologize for misquoting Darth Vader earlier )

[Fiasco]

Actually, I'd agree to an Aelyn lynch if, in case he turns up guilty, we're lynching LML the next day. But if we're going to lynch me in any case, there's no harm in doing it now so we'll have more info for the next lynch.

[Fiasco]

If I'm so scummy, I'd be interested in hearing theories of who my scum partners are. Why has no one brought up a plausible theory?

[Fiasco]

You do not necessarily need to be 'partnered' with anyone to be scum. You could easily be the SK. This wouldn't require you to have a partner.

Do you think I've sounded like a serial killer recently? (And don't say "you're only choosing to sound like that because then people will think you're not the serial killer"; that

doesn't work

, because people could still think I'm mafia.)

The thing that gets me is, "Actually, I'd agree to an Aelyn lynch...." Are you kidding me?

You left out the "

if

" part of that sentence. I think it's very possible LML and Aelyn are both scum, and given that I know I'm innocent, I prefer lynching them to lynching me,

unless

we're going to lynch me anyway, in which case it's better to do so now.

Let me get this straight, you will vote for Aelyn to save your life, even though you are so sure of his innocence?

I'm not at all sure of Aelyn's innocence, as I've always made clear.

Just to make sure we're on the same page, are you talking about something other than what LML addressed in post 241?

No, that is what I meant:

I voted Aelyn because even though I don't AGREE with the lynch, I though it was the RIGHT lynch.

That's not an argument, it's just a contradiction.

They might feel they are better lynches than some other people, for tactical reasons, but they should never feel they are the best lynch. Ergo they should claim if it could save them - there's no reason not to.

I don't think I'm the best lynch, but given how unpopular I've made myself, I'm not sure I'm a worse lynch today than you, and you're the only other player who might get lynched.

I'll think some more about whether it makes sense for me to claim. It is possible that a cop will be able to clear me.

[Fiasco]

If I'm not cop-cleared, I'm probably going to get lynched tomorrow anyway. LML said he was going to investigate me; don't know about Don Gaetano. If you're sure enough of my guilt that you think it's a waste of an investigation, then I can't blame you for wanting to lynch me -- again, better today than tomorrow, because then we can make a more informed lynch tomorrow.

I'd like to hear from more people whether they think me claiming is a good idea; I don't think Norinel does, for example. Once enough people do, I'll claim.

[Fiasco]

Most players get so frustrated at some point or another at their hopeless situation that they feel like giving up.

I honestly don't feel like giving up -- I intend to keep playing this for the win, as is my duty as a player. I can't deny feeling a bit frustrated, though.

saying that his death will enlighten us in some fashion - without saying what we will learn from his lynch.

Not so much from my lynch as from the ensuing nightkills and cop investigations. Lynching me today and X tomorrow is a better plan than lynching Aelyn today and me tomorrow, because the X lynch will be based on more knowledge than the Aelyn lynch.

What are you trying to hide that we won't lose anyway if you are lynched?

If I told you whether I had anything to hide, and what it was, then that would be tantamount to claiming.

if he is town what is the benefit of hiding information that could prevent us from lynching a townie?

Withholding information from the scum.

[Fiasco]

I will

unvote, vote: Fiasco

to put some additional pressure on him. Convince me that you aren't scum in some way.

This is not helpful. If you want me to claim, then say so, but I'm kind of already defending myself against everyone, and I don't see how the vote will help me think of a way to convince you.

I don't get the logic here. Any lynch tomorrow will be based on more information than any lynch today, be it yours, Aelyn's or some person X's lynch.

A Fiasco lynch based on no information is as good as a Fiasco lynch based on a lot of information, because I'm either scum or not. An Aelyn lynch based on no information is probably worse than an X lynch based on a lot of information.

[Fiasco]

That was five, by the way. Next vote = hammer.

Might not have another chance to claim, so:

I'm a vanilla townie, as per #2.

[Fiasco]

FoS: Jaguar

for putting the penultimate vote on without warning.

Aelyn, if you're honest, this is your cue to unvote.

[Fiasco]

Stop the triple posting! Don't tell me you couldn't have posted the last three posts in one! The preview button is your friend.

I use the preview button. It doesn't help me see into the future. When I submitted the first post, I didn't know there were five votes on me. When I submitted the second post, I didn't know I was going to remember to say the things in the third post. These things can't wait until after my death.

So tell me why lynching a vanilla townie is better or worse than lynching a claimed unnightkillable townie.

No idea whether it is -- again, it depends on what we're going to do tomorrow.

Why should Aelyn unvote?

The only rationale given behind his vote was to get me to claim, and I did.

Something I may not have mentioned: I've seen Aelyn post a long game summary before. He was scum then. Maybe he does it as town too, I don't know.

KingPin, you're asking me questions I feel I've answered several times already, and I'm going to request a re-read on your part before we discuss this any further.

[Fiasco]

I'm curious what the reasoning behind that is. If you die tonight, no investigation of yours will be useful. If DG dies tonight, the DG investigation will not be useful (because we no longer need to know DG's alignment, and because any light it casts on your sanity could be faked). Therefore investigating DG is only going to be of any use if neither of you dies tonight. That seems unlikely to me. Better investigate someone like draygn_mage, so that if one cop dies we still have some extra information to go on.

Now that at least some of the scum seem to think I'm in the other scum group, is there any chance we could no-lynch and make the scum waste one or both nightkills on me? Probably not

[Fiasco]

That was mostly a joke. My (perceived) credibility may never be this low again; might as well enjoy it. The idea makes some sense given my knowledge, but not really given yours; it's not as if I have any hope of persuading you on this point.

Why did neither of you comment on the more interesting issue, which is who the cop targets should be if I'm lynched?

[Fiasco]

I think Fiasco has given his final tell here. As far as I can see there has been no indication that there could be two scum groups.

I try to use the word "scum" to mean any anti-town minority, whether that's the mafia or the SK. Many people use it as another word for "mafia", and at rare times so do I, by accident.

This is obviously not one of those times. First, there almost certainly are not two mafia groups. The death scene strongly suggests one of the kills is a serial killer, and setups with two mafia groups aren't as common as setups with a mafia and SK. Second, if there are two mafia groups and if I'm in one of them, then I don't

know

there are two mafia groups. Third, even if I

knew

there were two mafia groups, I resent the implication that I'm stupid enough to just blurt out this information in the game thread.

You've just made the same mistake as LML: you accused me of having inside information that, from the death scene,

clearly isn't true

. Are you trying to confuse the town as to the setup?

[Fiasco]

So you seriously think:

* we have two mafia groups
* I'm in one of those groups, and I know the other group exists
* I used the word "scum" to mean mafia only, even though I

almost always

use it to mean "mafia or SK" (check the game history for proof)
* I didn't realize that when I said that, it would give me away

?

vote vikingfan

, because at least Passdog can say it was semantics confusion

[Fiasco]

This was a game with a death scene with a SK-like modus operandi, but that actually had two mafia groups? And you gave yourself away by talking about two "scum groups"?

[Fiasco]

It just occurred to me that maybe Passdog doesn't think a group can have one member. That makes his misinterpretation slightly less unreasonable.

vikingfan, I'm interested in this not so much because of what it says about me, but because of what it says about you. This "tell" isn't just "not enough to merit a vote"; it's bleeding ridiculous, and it's beginning to sound like you're grasping at every possible straw to get me lynched... and in this case, maybe to make the town doubt whether there's an SK.

[Fiasco]

Passdog, I suppose an overdose of math has warped my mind beyond recognition. My apologies. Still, I think you could have been a lot more lenient in your interpretation. Instead of "the other group", what would you call an entity-that-may-be-either-a-group-or-something-consisting-of-only-one-person? A team? A faction? A party? You could see all of these as implying more than one person, too.

[Fiasco]

"semantic slip-ups"? Does that mean you too take this "scum groups" nonsense seriously?

I'm more sure after that post that Aelyn is scum, but it's probably too late already.

[Fiasco]

Aagh! Very sorry about the double posts, but I forgot: I'm at five once again, and KingPin is scummy for not mentioning this.

[Fiasco]

I'm really a townie. I think LML and Aelyn are probably bad guys, but I'm not sure. Anything else you want to know now that it's still twilight?

I was actually looking forward to this game, and it turned out not to be the most uplifting game to be in, but oh well, that happens at times. Good luck, town!

[Fiasco]

PS I think when KingPin placed his vote, the counter still mistakenly said 3.

[Fiasco]

I still think you are scum!

I'm afraid not.

[Fiasco]

(sigh) Congrats, scum. This was a pretty tragic game from the town/SK's perspective.

A Priest that is searching for evil within the soles of our town.

That should have been a tip-off.

[Fiasco]

I don't understand why Aelyn was on his own lynch. Self-voting isn't a signal that you're the SK, it's a signal that you're

not

the SK.