Mini 280 - Game Over

[draygn_mage]

random

vote passdog

[draygn_mage]

Well, its been my experience that discussing the set up only allows the scum to spread disinformation. However on day one, there are only so many options available to us to start discussion: bandwagoning someone to a claim, discussing the setup, and discussing a "no lynch". Usually, the second two lead to the first method.

[draygn_mage]

Considering I was guilty of a similar slip-up in Siege of Harrogoth, I think LML could be on to something. I almost said he was a newbie so we should lay off, but he's been on site for 4 months now. This *can't* be the first time he's been random voted here.

unvote, vote Fiasco

[draygn_mage]

I haven't seen anyone better for step 7 than Fiasco, plus he's wriggling nicely and I can sit back and see who attacks him and who defends him.

Norinel's defense of Fiasco is noted.

[draygn_mage]

fos norinel

for using the obvious Fiasco fiasco line.

[draygn_mage]

Not really sure what to think at this point. It would be WIFOM to discuss why the Fiasco wagon didn't move.

Is it because the scum are already on it? Probably not due as I have yet to see 3 scum single-handedly start a bandwagon on an innocent townie and NOT get caught later.

Is it because the scum don't want on it? Possibly, but why is the real question here. Maybe because they don't want to bandwagon one of their own? At the same time, could a scum be sure that the bandwagon would successfully stop? No, and they would then be under scrutiny for NOT being on it. They would want to be on it in order to distance themselves.

After a quick re-read, I am more interesting in Aelyn for the "I might vote, but not yet" post. He wasn't even half-way to lynch yet. If you place the 4th vote, would 3 scum have given themselves up to speedlynch him? Hell no and you are veteran enough of a player to know that.

unvote, vote Aelyn

[draygn_mage]

the point is still made. are scum going to go 2-for-1 on a townie? hell no. the only reason to be worried about a speedlynch is when you get to 1 from lynch within a few posts over a couple of hourswith a lot of people vote hopping. then scum can jump on and go "oops, i didn't realize so and so was 1 from lynch..."

[draygn_mage]

speaking of my vote, has anyone seen Aelyn recently? last post is Tuesday- fos'd fiasco and threatened a vote but nothing since then.

[draygn_mage]

after reading Aelyn's reasoning I have to say it seems spot on.

unvote

I'm happy with going back to my original vote again to put Fiasco back at four votes.

vote Fiasco

[draygn_mage]

uh Fiasco, badwagon hopping is when you place many votes all over the place. I think I have seriously voted two people in this game, you and Aelyn. Aelyn explained himself well in my eyes and so I go back to you.

[draygn_mage]

No, just keeping a running total so people think about it before they vote him. He was one of two people who's posts struck me as off. Aelyn did a pretty good job of summing things up and in doing so I was able to see the thought process behind the actions. I am back to feeling something is not quite right with Fiasco and plan to keep my vote there unless something unforseen arises.

[draygn_mage]

That's the great thing about this game. i can vote my gut all I want. You're starting to sound like scum who's been caught and is attacking anyone you think the town might go for instead of you.

[draygn_mage]

yes, Aelyn was the other, but has somewhat redeemed himself with a good commentary on what is going on in the game including his thoughts and providing content. At this point I am not suspicious of him. This is not to say that it couldn't change at a later time.

[draygn_mage]

I am not claiming any kind of cop. In fact, I am sort of shell shocked by the whole issue at hand.

[draygn_mage]

As much as Fiasco keeps jumping up and down and practically screaming "LYNCH ME", I have to say that logically, Aelyn is the best lynch today. It will at least give our doc a good target to protect and force the scum and SK to hit one person and not two. Thoughts?

[draygn_mage]

I am really having a hard time changing my vote from Fiasco to Aelyn. My brain tells me that he is the most logical lynch, but if Fiasco can't stop posting craplogic I'm going to want to lynch him.

@Fiasco- pay attention to mafia math.

For mafia, cop = bad
For SK, cop = bad

If there are 2 claimed cops, then each one has a 50% chance of the mafia targetting it for a night-kill. Additionally, they each have a 50% chance of the SK targetting them for a night-kill. Now if there is a backup doc, then the scum and the SK have to BOTH target the same cop. 50% * 50% = 25% chance that both target the same cop and overcome doc protection because they can't coordinate.

If there is no backup doc then we at least get a 25% chance (by the same math) of having ONE of our cops alive in morning.

If the insane cop gets reverse results, then he can still be useful (useful cop = bad for scum).

I'll move my vote to Aelyn once we're done discussing today, but I really want to revisit the Fiasco problem tomorrow.

[draygn_mage]

@Norinel- except of course that the scum don't know WHO the SK is and un-nightkillable is a good SK ability. either way, if there is still a doc around, then someone would have to get lucky and guess who the scum will target.

In other news, now DG thinks he is insane or paranoid?

[draygn_mage]

You know at this point I am about to get out a coin and see who I should vote for based on that.

Heads = Fiasco
Tails = Aelyn

What do you know?

unvote, vote Fiasco

I'm willing to let the scum sort out the cop problem for us.

[draygn_mage]

Wow, thrashing like a fish on the hook. Anyone you DON'T find suspicious Fiasco?

Here are the options as I see it based on the major players in this drama.

If: Aelyn is townie, then LML is either sane or scum who is incredibly stupid for counter-claiming the cop, and DG is Insane, paranoid, or scum who claimed cop to draw the cop out now that the doc is dead.

If: Aelyn is scum, then LML is either insane, naive, or scum who is incredibly stupid for counter-claiming the cop, and DG is sane or scum who claimed cop to draw out the cop now that the doc is dead and LML is coving the real cop who is still out there.

If: Aelyn is the SK, then LML is either insane, naive, or scum who is incredibly stupid for counter claiming the cop, ad DG is either sane or scum trying to draw out the cop now that the doc is dead.

Someone else please add to this with your observations and maybe we can piece together what is going on here.

[draygn_mage]

You never know WHAT will happen when you have 3 players left in a game. unless something retarded happened, I would guess the game would end in a draw.

[draygn_mage]

I would still think it would be a draw. You can't get majority for a lynch and you can't nightkill the townie.

[draygn_mage]

Wow, from lynch the claimed cop to no lynch. Want to bring up mass claims and go for the trifecta?

[draygn_mage]

vote LML

I don't believe you that you are town.

[draygn_mage]

Oh don't get me wrong, Aelyn should definitely be the lynch for today, but I believe you should be following. After re-reading your arguments from yesterday, I can see they made no sense. You came out voting for Aelyn yesterday, but once DG came forward as a cop you unvoted and began defending with the claim that you too were a cop. As a scum this is a brilliant move as it gives you a claim that is unverifiable (naive cop) which could be nothing but a townie role. Just too much coincidence and too much convenience in your claim.

The rest of the town can lynch Aelyn, I'm leaving my vote on you all day and if I'm still alive tomorrow it will stay there again till the rest of the town realizes the same as me.

*shrug* or they can lynch me and I get to add to my sig when they finally lynch you.

[draygn_mage]

EBWODP- Hit submit not preview

BTW- nice job of totally ignoring KingPin's question.

[draygn_mage]

Hrm...

Now, we have a VERY INTERESTING issue.

I'm a cop. I TOO investigated Aelyn. I recieved an INNOCENT result.

How many times did I say Aelyn was NOT the lynch today?

At this point, once although nearly every other post from your first to this one was your defense of your vote on Fiasco. Now that I recall, Fiasco's first vote was on Aelyn, so I guess that is a point in your favor.

[draygn_mage]

You did vote Aelyn yesterday, did you not?

[draygn_mage]

But how is it that 18 mins after you claim cop and and ask how many times you told us that aelyn wasn't the lynch, you are suddenly doubting your sanity and "know how to test it", then 10 mins after that, you drop a vote on Aelyn?

Does this not look like scum trying to distance themselves? Does this not look like you are setting yourself up for a naive claim?

This doesn't even take into consideration that "the scum know who is sane already". At the time, Aelyn claimed un-nightkillable townie. Doesn't that seem like a SK ability more than scum? Scum wouldn't know if Aelyn was the SK at all. But they WOULD know that DG was sane if you were scum false-claiming cop.

I still think that Aelyn is the SK and that is the reason I think he should go first, but I definitely think you should go next.

[draygn_mage]

@Norinel- that makes no sense. If Aelyn is SK and we lynch scum, then there are 2 kills tonight and the town is worse off.

[draygn_mage]

damnit that was supposed to be preview.

The only way that lynching Aelyn could be bad is if he's town. As DG got a guilty on him, I highly doubt that will happen.

[draygn_mage]

Sorry, my gut all I have in this game and it tells me that LML is probably scum. Please don't misunderstand me though, I think that Aelyn is the best lynch for today. If Aelyn comes up innocent (not bloody likely) then I'll apologize to LML, but you can't tell me that this doesn't reek of scum setting up a fake claim. (A brilliant attempt I'll admit, but fake nonetheless.)

[draygn_mage]

what? are you claiming a cop role too? /sarcasm

[draygn_mage]

Because I'm sure I'll end up dead tomorrow and I want everyone to remember where I put my vote. I have no doubts that the town will lynch Aelyn today and I agree with that.

[draygn_mage]

We have 8 people alive right now.

*Assuming 3 mafia and 1 SK in the setup*

We lynch town (50% chance)
1. Mafia fires tonight hitting either town (75%) or SK (25%)
2. SK fires tonight hitting either town (50%) or mafia (50%)
3. Vig (?) fires tonight hitting either town (29%) mafia (43%) or SK (14%)

We don't even know if we have a functioning night vig, so basically, if we lynch a townie today, and there is no vig, then the town's fate rests with the SK *not* hitting town (a 50/50 chance)

We lynch mafia (38% chance)
1. Mafia fires tonight hitting either town (80%) or SK (20%)
2. SK fires tonight hitting either town (67%) or mafia (33%)
3. Vig fires tonight hitting town (50%) mafia (33%) or SK (17%)

If we lynch mafia, we have a 54% chance of waking up with 2 more dead townies.

We lynch SK (13% chance)
1. Mafia fires tonight hitting town (100%)
2. Vig (?) fires tonight hitting town (50%) or mafia (50%)

I don't like any of these options, but if someone would like to explain why one option is better than the others, I'd love to hear it. The math is sound, as we have NO fully cleared townies, and all the night kills will be ranodom beyond the certainty that scum will not elect to shoot one of their own ever.

[draygn_mage]

This really bites. We have a dead cop, dead doc, and dead day vig. Anyone want to mass claim??

[draygn_mage]

regardless of that, if we lynch the SK, then we are at 3 vs 3 once the scum make their kill and we lose. you should know better than that.

confirm vote LML

[draygn_mage]

all right, kingpin has convinced me that he is a better lynch than LML. I say this because ONLY scum could want the death of the SK today. I still feel that LML is scum as well, but at least people might listen to me on kingpin.

unvote, vote Kingpin

[draygn_mage]

vote Kingpin

that about sums up my thoughts...

[draygn_mage]

Well, I'm just as clueless now as I was when I voted Kingpin. I still think its either him or LML. Just waiting around to see what everyone else thinks.

[draygn_mage]

GG Mafia. I can't believe we lynched the SK instead of the counter-claiming SK. Ah well, better luck next time.