Mini 280 - Game Over

[Norinel]

plus anyone speculating about killing groups makes me uneasy.

Why?

Can't speak for LML, and won't say I'm of the same opinion but if people don't not consider their own role in discussions of the setup in general, those sorts of discussions can give scum info.

random vote: dragyn_mage

[Norinel]

Well, its been my experience that discussing the set up only allows the scum to spread disinformation. However on day one, there are only so many options available to us to start discussion: bandwagoning someone to a claim, discussing the setup, and discussing a "no lynch". Usually, the second two lead to the first method.

4: Discuss the general nature of the town's options on Day 1.
5: Discuss something utterly irrelevant.
6: Argue with the first person to invoke 1-5.
7: Bandwagon whoever sticks their neck out by doing 1-6.
8: Do 1-7 for a few (RL) days, then bandwagon the lurkers.

Sticking with dragyn_mage; feel like the Fiasco bandwagon is more of a distraction than anything else, but whether LML is deliberately distracting or not could go either way.

[Norinel]

Well, its been my experience that discussing the set up only allows the scum to spread disinformation. However on day one, there are only so many options available to us to start discussion: bandwagoning someone to a claim, discussing the setup, and discussing a "no lynch". Usually, the second two lead to the first method.

4: Discuss the general nature of the town's options on Day 1.
5: Discuss something utterly irrelevant.
6: Argue with the first person to invoke 1-5.
7: Bandwagon whoever sticks their neck out by doing 1-6.
8: Do 1-7 for a few (RL) days, then bandwagon the lurkers.

Sticking with dragyn_mage; feel like the Fiasco bandwagon is more of a distraction than anything else, but whether LML is deliberately distracting or not could go either way.

It's D1, Nor, and I feel like we've actually "gained" info. I feel, already, this has been a productive D1, better than just bandwagon (randomly), out power role, rinse, repeat.

My point exactly.

Norinel's defense of Fiasco is noted.

dragyn_mage's attempt to tie me to Fiasco is noted.

it feels to me like [Fiasco's] acting like a trapped mongoose, flurrying around in an attempt to escape but all the while just drawing more and more attention.

I can't really fault that behavior, as I've been known to do it as town (London Mafia II being the prime example)

But

FOS: Fiasco

for the scum grouping thing (I know 3 scum + SK can yield bad situations for the town after a bad day 1 lynch, but it doesn't seem like there's anything particular to this game that makes it worth overly discussing now),

Passdog

for not yet posting, and

Don Gaetano

for minimal content except to start the Fiasco fiasco and then all but disappear.

[Norinel]

Norn's posts have gotten me rather uneasy lately. I will quote a little bit later.

Misspellings aside, would you?

On the other hand, since he's supposed to be a Mafia God, I hold him to high standards.

That was proclaimed by Pie is Good, and I'm honored that you hold me to that. I'll make sure to try to live up to my expectations.

He mostly hasn't lived up to them in this game. He instigated the bandwagon because of the "assuming" thing that he didn't really defend later.

Disagreement: My vote on you has not changed. My record for finding scum in the first few posts is outstanding.

The transition from humility to but-I-will-call-in-this-awesome-reputation disturbs me. Particularly because half the reason LML was going after Fiasco in the first few posts was the misinterpretation of the whole "(Assuming it was random)" thing.

Lurker hunts, IMHO, are simply ways for the scum to throw undue suspicion on townies. I will point to a game in which I was scum and managed to lynch *3* lurkers. (Jeepfest Mafia), just because they were lurkers.

They are generally EASY targets by the scum to point to, and even moreso, easy townies for the town to lynch based on their inactivity.

You seem to be confounding lurker hunts with lynching lurkers, which aren't quite the same thing. Most lurker hunters would claim that they'll take off their vote if the lurker shows up and starts posting with content.

Mod

, can you please prod Aelyn, Nori and draygn_mage? Any luck on replacing/prodding Passdog yet?

As a sidenote, I generally get on exactly once a day. I'll usually post in games I'm in when I'm on; the fact that I didn't yesterday seems a bit soon to be calling for prods.

LML is setting off more alarms than before, and Jaguar seems a little too focussed on Don Gaetano and activity in general, but the vote stays for now, I think.

MOD NOTE

Passdog

has been prodded.

[Norinel]

Not really sure what to think at this point. It would be WIFOM to discuss why the Fiasco wagon didn't move.

Is it because the scum are already on it? Probably not due as I have yet to see 3 scum single-handedly start a bandwagon on an innocent townie and NOT get caught later.

Is it because the scum don't want on it? Possibly, but why is the real question here. Maybe because they don't want to bandwagon one of their own? At the same time, could a scum be sure that the bandwagon would successfully stop? No, and they would then be under scrutiny for NOT being on it. They would want to be on it in order to distance themselves.

Why is everyone (At least LML and d_m) so focussed on scum moving the bandwagon? Why don't we think about why the townies who aren't voting for Fiasco aren't?

In addition I believe a few here have stated that the best option for the town day one is to force a claim.

I'd say the best option for the town day 1, generally, is to

choose someone they think is more likely to be than scum than random

and force a claim. Fiasco qualifies for a lot of people, but the omission is interesting.

The transition from humility to but-I-will-call-in-this-awesome-reputation disturbs me. Particularly because half the reason LML was going after Fiasco in the first few posts was the misinterpretation of the whole "(Assuming it was random)" thing.

More like, Norn, Occam's razor. Choose the simplest response. In mafia, there really isnt ever a "throwaway" comment. That comment was typed for a reason. I believe it wasn't intentional, and it's worth exploring.

And I'm good at finding these early, but I'm much worse as the game goes on. Ask Mathcam.

Way to not address the actual point. If it's not obvious already,

IGMEOY: LML

I am not voting Fiasco because he has a high post count.

I vote because his posts are cluttering the game

Clutter? Every post of Fiasco's, with a handful of exceptions mostly near the beginning of the days, contains something he can be held accountable for or that can advance the town's discussion.

And scum hiding between his posts? That's what View all posts by: is for.

unvote: draygn_mage, vote: Passdog

[Norinel]

(PS: When I said Norniel, I really meant Vikingfan. Maybe that was a freudian slip of sorts, I don't know)

Nor i n el. Please.

Regardless, I believe I'm the one everyone's looking at, mainly, because I'm POSTING. I'm beginning to get worried that Fiasco's the same way, and beginning to question my vote.

I think one of the problems with the site at large is the distinction between posting, Posting, and POSTING; we have lurkers, and we have people get on to post in each of their games around once a day, and we have people who always on the site posting at any opportunity they see. In your case, (At least in this game) the fact that you post good posts a lot probably means there are more things for people seeking the occasional logical twisting or slipup to find. In this game's case, I think said slips are more likely to be maliciously manipulative than not.

I reread the game yesterday and I now acknowledge that I did come across as rather defensive; still, you guys are blowing it way out of proportion.

Blowing things out of proportion is how we get places.

I'm happy with going back to my original vote again to put Fiasco back at four votes.

Just to put Fiasco back at four votes?

[Norinel]

[Fiasco] was one of two people who's posts struck me as off.

Just to be clear, is Aelyn the other?

This is how hunting active posters (whether because they post more total scum tells given the same scum tell rate, or because the activity itself is seen as scummy) helps kill games.

Would you prefer we ignored some scum tells?

[Norinel]

LML gets points for counterclaiming within an hour.

Why? If I were to counterclaim now (Which I'm not), would it be any less valued by the fact that I wasn't on in the couple hours yesterday that all the new info came out? Would LML as scum need more than a few minutes to decide to counterclaim?

I am immune to nightkills, and I'm happy to be tested if you want.

That last seems like an SK or 'lover' qualification- it seems too powerful otherwise.

Not really. It's a relatively common ability for GFs and SKs to have, but it's not unheard of in the hands of the town. That probably wouldn't make testing it via vig all that useful.

Current favorite theory: Aelyn is the SK, LML is a mafia, DG is a sane cop. LML, knowing that Aelyn was not in the mafia, thought DG could be insane, and thought it was worth the risk to claim an innocent result; if Aelyn turned out to be the SK, LML could always claim to be insane himself.

I'm also intrigued by the possiblity that either of the claimed cops is scum giving a result they know to be right to credit them after Aelyn's death and discredit the other cop. (If he happens to be nonsane and not lying)

And I agree that lynching Aelyn is probably the best choice for information. On the other hand, the fact that LML's been most recently advocating anything but is quite interesting.

[Norinel]

Am I the only one who finds it odd that people are advocating lynching someone other than Aelyn for advocating lynching someone other than Aelyn?

unvote: Passdog, vote: Aelyn

[Norinel]

"Quite possible"? I've never seen that before, and having two non-sane cops would be a huge disadvantage for the town.

Without the context of the rest of the setup, assumptions based on balance are generally unhelpful.

If we lynch Aelyn, there will be two obvious nightkill targets: LML and DG.

There will be one much more obvious nightkill target- whichever of LML or DG got a correct result.

I certainly don't want to entertain the thought of lynching a claimed cop without some additional information, and lynching Aelyn will give us that information.

This is also my stand as far as the claimed cops go. As far as lynching anyone else, I'm generally of the opinion that three claims is about as far as the town should go Day 1 without incredibly good reason. For me, Fiasco doesn't quite cut it at the moment. Vote stands.

[Norinel]

@Fiasco- pay attention to mafia math.

For mafia, cop = bad
For SK, cop = bad

If there are 2 claimed cops, then each one has a 50% chance of the mafia targetting it for a night-kill. Additionally, they each have a 50% chance of the SK targetting them for a night-kill. Now if there is a backup doc, then the scum and the SK have to BOTH target the same cop. 50% * 50% = 25% chance that both target the same cop and overcome doc protection because they can't coordinate.

If there is no backup doc then we at least get a 25% chance (by the same math) of having ONE of our cops alive in morning.

I don't think I've ever explicitly called something crap logic in a game before, but I will now. The worst assumption of it is that the killers will hit a cop at random, which ignores the fact that they have a much better idea of who's sane and will assume that a sane cop is more likely than in insane cop. Remember that assumptions make an ass out of u and mptions. (And even if you do make that assumption and the one that both cops are telling the truth, it's a 50% chance they'll hit the same cop, not 25. But that's splitting hairs.)

(Except that if he's innocent, you'll probably lynch me the next day,

Between an Aelyn lynch and any info gained from cop results/death revelations/etc. tonight, the situation will be quite different.

and then the town is small enough that it's almost certainly dead.

If there's crosskilling, then there won't be a problem, and if not, it goes into prisoner's gambit unless you're the SK.

And even the townie himself is not guaranteed life- in the coward roles I've seen, if the coward hides with someone selected for death that night, the coward will die as well.

I'm sure that if there were even a hiding choice to be made, Aelyn would've said so when he claimed.

The only person there who want's to kill a KNOWN cop is Fiasco.

Claimed, in everyone else's eyes.

He wants to lynch, and then, with a nightkill, the scum have no cops to worry about.

Ass! U! Mptions!

If Aelyn's scum, witch he might be... We just watch him and watch his voting patterns.

Or we watch the voting patterns he's already given us.

I still think both LML and Fiasco are scummily obsessed with each other. I don't think it's worth worrying about now, as it could just a case of mutually inflaming townies with the scum either stepping out of the way or putting wood on the fire as appropriate.

[Norinel]

One of them, yes.

[Norinel]

Even if you don't agree with that statement [that Aelyn is obviously innocent because of M255]. Think about this:

Most likely Aelyn did not read Mini 255. If that assumption is correct, Aelyn has to be innocent because the chances of him claiming that precise role, without knowing about that game are even much smaller than me and LML investigating the same person.

If Aelyn did read Mini 255. The logical assumption would be that LB had already put a role like that in the game, so it would be a stupid risk to take, for a claim that's hard to believe in the first place. He had no way of knowing that I would remember that game either.

That means that I'm paranoid or insane, and that LML is sane or naive (most likely sane)

Actually, the entire train of logic here assumes that mini 255 makes it much more likely that the coward role would be in this game, or that Aelyn would use such reasoning. I don't want to run the whole mptions line again, so I'll just say you're trying to outguess the mod way more than could possibly be sensible.

Our cops simply aren't going to do us much good now that they're out. That makes Aelyn our most useful claimed role.

Actually, the coward loses a big portion of his power as well by claiming- the ability to get attacked and block a scum kill. As it stands, he's just a voice and vote that we might assume to be on the town's side and not going anywhere.

[Norinel]

endgame things like getting a draw in a one mafia vs one coward situation.

Actually, that situation could be interpreted different ways, so just to be sure:

Mod:

If the game is reduced to a single mafia/SK with no other abilities and a single unkillable townie, who wins?

This discussion that some want sounds like an effort to get more townies to make claims! How many more claims do we need on D1? We have already gotten claims from, what may be, very powerful pro-town roles. Yet you want more.

Agreed.

[Norinel]

Because not posting one time you're on is

so

disturbing.

Norinel, I agree another claim would be bad. The alternative is to lynch a claimed power role, though.

Well, there's a very good chance that if another person is forced to a claim, they won't claim townie, in which case we get the same choice of lynching a claimed power role or another claim.

A (backup) doc that protects against at most one attack is the standard case, isn't it? (If not, do correct me!) If so, then how is our sane cop ever going to survive after an Aelyn lynch?

If any of the following happen:
-Aelyn's the SK and there's another doc
-Aelyn's the SK and the mafia attack someone else because they think there's another doc or for any of the other reasons explained below
-Either of the killing groups don't kill for whatever reason (They can't, to set up a doc claim, just to confuse things), and a doc blocks the other kill or it targets someone else for any of the reasons given below.
-The killing role(s) hit someone other than the now presumably sane claimed cop to make everyone think the presumably sane claimed cop is evil.
-The killing role(s) hit someone other than the now presumably sane claimed cop to confuse the town.
-The killing role(s) hit someone other than the now presumably sane claimed cop to find the potential other doc or a more useful power role.
-The presumably sane claimed cop actually is evil, and is immune to the nightkill of the other killer, or the other killer hits someone else because they think there's a doc or to frame them, confuse the town, or hunt for the doc/a stronger role.
-The town's useful cop is actually insane, the one who claimed and got a wrong result on Aelyn, so the scum, SK, and potential doc all hit the naive/paranoid other one.
-The town's useful cop is neither LML nor DG, and just hasn't claimed yet. LML and DG are some combination of lying or naive/paranoid.

(I'd say answering my question wouldn't confirm or deny anything regarding what's actually in this game, it's just about how LB would rule in a specific hypothetical situation that may or may not ever actually occur. But the mod has spoken.)

[Norinel]

Here's the thing, though: the only reason to claim from my perspective is that it may get me not lynched today.

Or that you have information that won't be revealed if we lynch you anyway.

(No one else has addressed the LML lying thing, for example.)

Just to make sure we're on the same page, are you talking about something other than what LML addressed in post 241?

Specifically, we need the people not voting to pick a side- it's not like we're going to get much new info. I think that's what we're really waiting on right now.

It's interesting that, if by "pick a side" you mean vote for either Aelyn or Fiasco, everyone picking a side will almost certainly be the lynch of one or the other.

I'd be happy to return my Fiasco vote... I think the day, though, does need to end. I don't feel like forcing any more claims.

It's also interesting that you don't directly acknowledge the obvious contradiction here.

[Norinel]

Not that we're at lynch-or-lose, but if we don't lynch correctly today, we very could be.

Actually, if there are three scum (Quite possible), and we lynch the SK, and the scum kill goes through tonight, (And there are no vote/daykill/lynch affecting roles) then the mafia wins. So I could see LML as mafia going for credibility yesterday with cop counterclaim, then deciding in the night that Aelyn could very well be the SK, thus knocking out the potentially sane DG in the night and going for Aelyn today for the win. But that's so WIFOM it hurts.

And then when draygn_mage goes and says...

I still think that Aelyn is the SK and that is the reason I think he should go first

It's rather disturbing.

Strong FOS: draygn_mage, FOS: LML, Aelyn

, but I'll wait for everyone before voting.

[Norinel]

EBWOP- As I just posted in V/LA, I'll be gone Saturday to Saturday. Replace/whatever as appropriate.

[Norinel]

damnit that was supposed to be preview.

The only way that lynching Aelyn could be bad is if he's town. As DG got a guilty on him, I highly doubt that will happen.

Let me spell it out for you:

If there are 3 mafia and 1 SK at this point, there are also 4 town. Let's call this 3-1-4. If we lynch the SK, that goes to 3-0-4. If the mafia successfully kill, we go to 3-0-3, and unless there's a successful vig kill tonight or some other screwy role that can get us out of that, mafia wins. And if we don't lynch the SK, there'll still be two kills a night, but the chances that those kills hit the other scum go up, and there's no way the town can win in the 3-1-4 situation without crosskills. The mafia and SK can't win while the other survives, until the numbers become overwhelming.

Come to think of it, if the SK is totally nightkill-immune it might be worth it for them to claim now, because they can only be killed by lynching and it won't be the right town play to lynch a cooperative SK for a little while. Coordinate lynches and SK-kills to knock out the mafia, and the town and SK have much bigger chances.

I (still) agree with Nori and vikingfan that lynching LML today is not the best choice yet

I don't think I said that. I think LML's more likely to be mafia than SK, which means if we think he's anti-town it's probably worth lynching him.

So far, I've not heard anyone say that Aelyn is not a good choice today. I think we are all in agreement then that Aelyn is a good choice.

I

certainly

didn't say that. I think Aelyn's more likely to be the SK than scum, in which case lynching him now is way too big a risk.

It's awful. This is an awful situation. I'm really worried that if we mislynch today, the town will be losing the enxt day with a mislynch of me.

This is horribly misleading, and it should be obvious why.

Lynching someone that a cop said was guilty is a good thing.

X

I'm not usually one to call out a whole mafia family, but the whole SK thing makes LML/KingPin/draygn_mage look incredibly fishy, especially since I expect at least two of them to be able to understand it.

[Norinel]

EBWOP: And if you

still

don't understand, go read Mini 108.

[Norinel]

If there is a chance for the SK to still win, why would the SK come forward and accept losing to help the town, which is against him also?

Because there's a good chance the town won't have time to lynch him, and both the town and the SK need to deal with the mafia to win.

B) Aelyn could be scum copping a gambit of SK and hoping to lynch a townie to help the mafia along.

We definitely need to consider this possibility, although I'll stand by my opinion that Aelyn's much more likely to be SK than mafia. Easiest way to do this is for the real SK, if they aren't Aelyn, to kill Aelyn tonight, because he's almost certainly mafia if not SK and the SK needs to get rid of mafia as much as the town does. If Aelyn is actually a night kill-immune GF, things get a little trickier, but I'm hoping DG's guilty investigation means that isn't the case.

Uhm, I have modded and played in games where a cop finds the SK innocent.

Well, you're the one who allegedly knows what the cop PM says.

Anyway, I would recommend, if anything, having me killed overnight. Don't waste a lynch here.

I would've suggested it if you hadn't done so first, but you bringing it up makes me think you might be the NK-immune GF, much in the same way that someone under heavy pressure asking to be investigated is a GF tell.

Unfortunately, I've resigned myself to being killed. It's a pity to have the town lose for it.

This is both overly rhetorical and incorrect even if you are pro-town.

My personal vote is for Norinel, if the SK's going to kill me tonight.

I believe that will be the best for the towwn.

You've said something along these lines several times this game, but never why. I'm starting to think it's because I'm the only one who's been in this situation and knows how the town can handle it.

I'd say we go after Kingpin or d_m today and see if we can get some information that will help.

That's about what I'd been thinking.

[Norinel]

Initial thoughts on a reread:

At the same time I wasn't really expecting so many power roles for the town

Considering how dire a situation one wrong lynch and one right lynch may've put us, I'd say the town against 3 mafia and an SK deserves all the help it can get.

Anyway, if we go back to KingPin's claim:

Claim: KingPin is SK, A Priest that is searching for evil within the soles of our town

What makes this so much easier is that no other revealed or claimed role has had any more flavor than the rolename as generally used on Mafiascum. That and the sheer unlikeliness of what KP suggests makes me think lynching him a risk worth taking.

But I'll only

FOS: Kingpin

, as the reason the game hasn't ended just might be that we have a vig and they can hit right (And the mafia kill can be blocked somehow) tonight. If so, we need to find a second scum today. Will gladly vote, of course.

[Norinel]

Definitely a good game, despite the length and situation. When I saw the playerlist, I was looking forward to a game without big red Xes or posts only consisting of votes. Well played, mafia.

A Priest that is searching for evil within the soles of our town.

That should have been a tip-off.

Yeah. I would've pointed out that every single other role was flavorless if the mafia hadn't quicklynched Aelyn. (Why did I not catch that?)

I'm not usually one to call out a whole mafia family, but the whole SK thing makes LML/KingPin/draygn_mage look incredibly fishy,

And the fact that both other townies were in this threesome is exactly why I don't do this.

[Norinel]

Not as much as the people who were mishandling things more. Your quicklynch of Kingpin was what made me switch.