Fall of the Matrix: Game Over!

[DeathNote]

@Deathnote:

He is right that there's a bit of a contradiction but it's a silly one. You are voting Vezok for narrowing down PR possibilities. If you even consider anyone else for a lynch then you are encouraging them to claim and therefore you are also guilty of narrowing PR possibilities.

So if you support any wagon other than the Vezok one you are being internally inconsistent. That's the argument he's making. You said earlier that you are open to lynching someone else, so there's the inconsistency.

I think it's a silly argument because narrowing PR possibilities is a minor point of pursuing people.

Yes my vote was placed because he claimed VT but that does not mean that Vez can not be scum or some sort of Anti-Town. Beside, there is a difference in lynching someone for being stupid and lynching someone for being scummy and you get bonus points for doing it to the same person.

@Zindaras: I am a survivalist. I'm more satisfied if I lived till the end then if I won.
If everyone knows I am town when claiming VT they won't lynch so I can get to endgame. If I claim VT as scum day 1 like this they won't believe me anymore and I won't have the same chances of winning.

GAH!!!! This is anti-town and should not be happening.

DN wants to drag the day. What good can it come for dragging the day? Nobody will come with other reasons, townies will get bored and stuff like that.

Also everyone knows that short days favor scum and not town. If he comes here and says let's make a loooooonnnngg day people will think that is the town mentality and won't try to lynch him.

Get my point?

What? Who told you short days are scummy? Longer days means more information which means better town day. Its like you have purposively said something is scummy just because I am agreeing with it.

No, DeathNote specifically said "Lynching Vezok narrows down the PR list." This admits that he feels Vezok to be town and likely a VT - ergo, he believes the claim.

Is that what you are thinking I said? Let me clear it up for you then, Vez is more likely scum then town to me hence my vote.

[AGar]

Agree with lynching Vezok for effectively narrowing down the PR list.

This post. This is the one that gave me shitfits.

Seeing the clarification, I need to rethink here...

UNVOTE:

[DeathNote]

Yeah it is an incomplete post but to clarify more, Vez was the one who effectively narrowed down the PR list and because of that, I agreed with lynching him.

BTW-

KILL VEZ WITH FIRE FOR CLAIMING A VICTORY CONDITION THAT IS NOT TOWN!!!!!!!!!!

[BrianMcQueso]

I'm still waiting to hear why lynching claimed VTs improves the towns odds.

Do you disagree with the arguments that have been presented, or are you ignoring them? You refuse to acknowledge the possibility that Vezok

might

be scum, and you're attacking anyone who thinks otherwise.

unvote, vote: AGar

My win condition says I win if all the threats to the town are dead.

That's not what mine says.

Vote: Vezok

Really? Maybe it's just me, but I don't have my role PM word-for-word memorized. There's scum slips, and then there's paraphrasing.

To the people voting for Vezok for *this* reason: do you legitimately think this is a scum slip?

[Internet Stranger]

Oh right. Vezo happens to mention the standard boilerplate town victory condition in a theme game and now he is scum incarnate. You all cant keep calling him stupid but then vote for him over some dastardly scumslip. If he is as stupid as you all say, then he clearly didnt bother reading the first post or his PM thoroughly.

If he is scum, lynch him because he is scum, not because he is an idiot. Im inclined to believe him for now because he wont last to the end of the game anyways. Despite that, I would still be ok with getting rid of him, but I like my suggestions (Surye and Kison) better.

[Yosarian2]

I'm still waiting to hear why lynching claimed VTs improves the towns odds.

I think I already explained this, but I'll explain it again, in more detail.

The longer the town power roles live, the higher the odds of the town winning are. A single cop, by himself, if allowed to get off 3 investigations and then claim, has a pretty drastic influence on the town's chances of winning; keeping power roles may have a bigger impact then the day 1 lynch, all in all, especially since even the smartest towns usually fail to lynch correctly on day 1 in any case.

The best way to keep town power roles alive, especially in the early game, is usually to keep them hidden. (There are a few setups where this isn't necessarily true, such as the old doc-cop 7p newbie game, but those setups are really rare in the current meta.)

One of the most important things a VT can do for power roles is to provide camouflage. Pulling numbers out of thin air to make a point; 4-5 power roles, hidden in a group of 15 other vanilla townies, are hard for the scum to find. Every time one of those vanilla townies claim, and then lives until night, the odds of the scum killing a town power role goes up. If a person claims vanilla town, and then survives for multiple nights, then the scum have a better chance of killing town power roles every single one of those nights. That is (assuming 5 pro-town power roles and 19 VT's); if nobody claims without getting lynched, and if the scum keep missing power roles, the odds of scum killing town power roles are 5/19 night 1, 5/17 night 2, 5/15 night 3, 5/13 night 4, 5/11 night 5, ect. If there is someone who's claimed vanilla, and then is allowed to live for several days, then if he's telling the truth, those odds increase to 5/18 night 1, 5/16 night 2, 5/14 night 3, 5/12 night 4, 5/10 night 5, ect. Over the course of the game, especially in a large game like this one that could potentially last up to 10 or so days if there's 1 kill a night, that's a very significant difference. Basically, allowing a claimed vanilla to live is bad for the odds of power roles surviving, and the earlier it happens and the longer he lives, the worse it gets. Also, that's all assuming that no one else claims all game, which is clearly not going to happen; every time we get another claim, the living claimed vanilla becomes worse and worse for the town, as the scum are shooting into a smaller and smaller pool.

And it's even worse then that; if we bandwagon someone who's not Vezo to a claim today, because of Vezo's claim, there's now a higher chance that we'll bandwagon a power role to a claim, which obviously helps the scum even more. Or, we might bandwagon another vanillia; what will you want to do if someone else claims vanilla today? Let them live, too?

In the normal course of a day, the town will usually get 2-3 claims before lynching someone anyway, which isn't good.

Basically, all in all, a claimed vanilla townie is a liability to the town at night, while running him up on a bandwagon during the day is a lower risk then doing that with anyone else. Now, if you've got a reasonably high confidence level that the claimed vanilla townie IS pro-town, OR if you've got another suspect that is significantly more likely then he is to be scum, or POSSIBLY if the claimed vanilla townie is a person who might be a huge asset to the town during the day if he does turn out to be town, then you MIGHT consider keeping him alive, if you think the benefits to lynching someone else outweigh the risks. You need a good reason, though; in the absence of other information, if you want to maximize the chances of the town winning, you're better off lynching someone who's already claimed vanilla then you are running up someone else to a claim.

Prievew Pane Edit: For the record, I do agree with Internet Stranger here; the Vezo "scumslip" is pretty thin.

[Zindaras]

-Agar: way too eager to confirm vezok. His posts on the issue give me a bad gut feeling.

I'm not "eager to confirm" him. I'm more wanting to run up the jackasses going "Lol VT claim, LYNCH LYNCH LYNCH."

Tell me the scum motivation for claiming Vanilla Townie, self-aware of meta or not, and locking yourself into that kind of claim? He basically just forced his scumteam in between a rock and a hard place if he's scum because they now essentially can't risk sending him out for a night kill. A track or watch that turns him up is going to result in his auto-lynch. Now his entire scumteam is forced to play that much better in order to hope that they aren't suspected enough to get nailed by any investigative results.

If you can show me any logical scum motivation outside of "self-aware of this meta", I'll be glad to relent and potentially move my vote. But right now I see no reason.

Vezok is town, and it's all but assured

. Vezok is not intelligent enough to manipulate his own self meta. There's no reason, as town, to lynch a town player to "narrow down the PR list." It's just helping scum if anything, narrowing down their choices, thus increasing their likelihood of hitting a power role.

Jesus christ, let's all stop being retarded for a second. Vezok claimed VT. If he was scum or anti-town of any flavor, he would have had some ridiculous unbelievably retarded claim. It's how he rolls. He is not smart enough to manipulate this. Move your votes onto someone who deserves to be wagonned into oblivion, like DN or Surye or Lain.

Fixed quote tags

That looks pretty eager to confirm the guy.

Now, as for your arguments:
-Vez may be the target of a tracker...once. No Tracker is going to constantly track one guy for claiming VT and if he did, I'm pretty sure the Mafia would find it quite an acceptable trade.
-Vanilla Town is really quite an excellent claim for scum. It turns away potential SKs, it makes a townie more likely to survive hence allows the scumbag to not raise eyebrows when surviving, you can't be counterclaimed, you don't have to think up a claim.
-I'm not sure if I'm drawing on the wrong experience here (it's been a while since I played a game on MS), but it's a vanilla claim. It's quite possible that such a ruckus was not anticipated.

My win condition says I win if all the threats to the town are dead.

In order to survive I have to kill all the scums so they can't kill me.
If I survive till the end the odds of town winning are bigger.

Call my surviving a second goal but nearly any role I would have I have to survive.

Nope, mate. If you can kill yourself to take out a scumbag you do it, hands down. As a townie, you play not to get lynched, sure, I'll go with you on that one. But if you have an inconsequential role, you paint a bullseye on your behind and hope someone hits it. Because the Mafia isn't going to accidentally kill itself off at night. The numbers don't change if you play to evade the bullet. Townies still die. Basically, your little move reduced the pool of potential power roles for the scum. Hence, the chance of the Cop dying has become larger (by 4-5%, depending on the size of the scumteam). And, quite frankly, there are few players that are worth more than a Cop.

Do we have any data on his scum game? I'm personally unimpressed by this kind of meta unless it's made explicit by the player. For example, I know someone who has a No-Lie Policy and he's kept it throughout years and years of Mafia play up to the point where everybody believes it. But he is invested in his meta. I do not see any investment from Vez. That means that he has more than enough incentive to betray the meta at a later point.

Agar posted a couple of examples earlier. I don't know if he's ever made it explicit outside of this game just now.

Well, Agar's posts did somewhat help, though I am a bit hesitant to simply accept it on the basis of two games. If he's that new to Mafia, then he'd probably learn from his previous experiences as well, so I still don't trust it. Also, I'm not currently buying the policy, even if it's made explicit. Too little history to go on.

Yossy's right: purely playing the odds, Vez would make for a good lynch. However, I feel we can and should attempt to do better than just playing the odds.

Also, to be honest, the victory condition? Meh, I think it's a pretty weak argument. It's certainly something noticeable but I heavily dislike using the victory condition wording or even any part of PM wording. No Pressure Mafia already showed the weaknesses of that particular strategy.

[Zindaras]

EBWOP: Mod, could you please fix those tags?

[Internet Stranger]

Vezo's claim attracts scum like flies to shit. Start lynching people that were voting for him.

[Amrun]

It wasn't that he paraphrased the win condition. It was that he went out of the way to tell us the win condition and then said it wrong that looked bad to me.

[mozamis]

Oh right. Vezo happens to mention the standard boilerplate town victory condition in a theme game and now he is scum incarnate. You all cant keep calling him stupid but then vote for him over some dastardly scumslip. If he is as stupid as you all say, then he clearly didnt bother reading the first post or his PM thoroughly.

If he is scum, lynch him because he is scum, not because he is an idiot. Im inclined to believe him for now because he wont last to the end of the game anyways. Despite that, I would still be ok with getting rid of him, but I like my suggestions (Surye and Kison) better.

Think everyone should look at this carefully. Seems a totally accurate analysis.
Maybe the guy is not the best player.Maybe he is scum. Maybe he was just having a laugh. But we can't lynch him on: 1)Claiming VT early
2)Not posting his role PM properly.
And if you'll forgive a bit of WIFOM, I find it hard to believe that scum wouldn't check page one for the VT role pm.

And like Internet stranger,Agar and Amrun have already said,I'm much more suspicious of those on his wagon.

[LlamaFluff]

I dont buy that Vezok-scum realized that VT has no name and no role attached to it, but missed that they have an anti-machine win condition.

unvote
Vote Toon Fighter

I am going to be a little distant these next few days as I have finals tomorrow and wednesday then I am moving thursday.

[mozamis]

@ Amrun yeah he got it wrong but that means he is scum? seems pretty weak. incometent or lazy town seems more likely.

[mozamis]

incompetent, sorry. Oh the irony...

[Bamboomancer]

Wow, okay, this is hardcore more so than I realized.

I don't have the whole quote mentality yet, but I'm going to give a few of my thoughts on things.

Related to Vezok:
Yeah, okay, there's an argument that "lynching a VT means we don't lynch a PR" but since I'm refusing to use any kind of history and I don't know the guy, I'm not sure I'm not buying that he's ANYTHING. It seems so random and erratic to me that I can't really get a solid read off of it.

As for the "that's not what MINE says"... I'm not getting a strong tell off of that, because everything else he does seems so half-assed, I wouldn't be surprised that this one is either.

Now then... all things being said, my gut finds it all fishy, but not scummy.

I'll try to do some more tomorrow when I didn't have to work so late.

[Amrun]

I just re-read vezok in ISO.

The win condition "slip" isn't strong enough to erase my otherwise town-read of him, and as llamafluff points out, he got other VT details right.

VOTE: Toon Fighter

[mozamis]

I dont buy that Vezok-scum realized that VT has no name and no role attached to it, but missed that they have an anti-machine win condition.

unvote
Vote Toon Fighter

I am going to be a little distant these next few days as I have finals tomorrow and wednesday then I am moving thursday.

Confused by this. You think Vezok is scum, but voting Toon Fighter?

[Amrun]

Just realized that was unnecessary since I never unvoted TF in the first place. >.>

[mozamis]

ah, hang on I gotch ya. You mean "vezok-scum" as in other people think he is scum. Sorry.

[LlamaFluff]

I dont buy that Vezok-scum realized that VT has no name and no role attached to it, but missed that they have an anti-machine win condition.

unvote
Vote Toon Fighter

I am going to be a little distant these next few days as I have finals tomorrow and wednesday then I am moving thursday.

Confused by this. You think Vezok is scum, but voting Toon Fighter?

No, I think vezok is town. I am showing that vezok-scum would have had to read the sample role, notice that there was no name of character, no physical role attached to the role, and then missed that the win condition was different. Which is why I dont buy that it happened, and given a few recent posts from DN, I think he might be playing his normal borderline town-VI play.

[Porochaz]

vote amrun

do something original, something that others people haven't done. Maybe you could go into detail about the TF case as its notoriously thin atm. Also you havent made a post I like thus far.

[mozamis]

I dont buy that Vezok-scum realized that VT has no name and no role attached to it, but missed that they have an anti-machine win condition.

unvote
Vote Toon Fighter

I am going to be a little distant these next few days as I have finals tomorrow and wednesday then I am moving thursday.

Confused by this. You think Vezok is scum, but voting Toon Fighter?

No, I think vezok is town. I am showing that vezok-scum would have had to read the sample role, notice that there was no name of character, no physical role attached to the role, and then missed that the win condition was different. Which is why I dont buy that it happened, and given a few recent posts from DN, I think he might be playing his normal borderline town-VI play.

Yes I understood after amruns post what you meant. I agree with you. He's gotta be very bad scum to mess that up.

[DeathNote]

Dislike Bamboo's fence sitting.

[Yosarian2]

But we can't lynch him on: 1)Claiming VT early

Pretty sure we can.

If we will or not is still an open question. But it's defiantly an option.

[mozamis]

I meant, we can't sensibly lynch him for that...