Fall of the Matrix: Game Over!

[Yosarian2]

CONFORM

[Yosarian2]

Did Vez seriously just claim VT in pregame?

Can we speedlynch him before the game starts?

[Yosarian2]

(shrug) I don't really care all that much about meta in cases of extreme anti-town behavior. Lynching people who claim VT just improves the town's odds of wining.

[Yosarian2]

(shrug) I don't really care all that much about meta in cases of extreme anti-town behavior. Lynching people who claim VT just improves the town's odds of wining.

But he only claims VT as town.

...

I really dislike trusting any kind of meta that's that specific; if he knows people think that, then he has every reason to claim VT as scum.

My normal response to people who have a habit of claiming VT on day 1 is "Lynch them every time they do until they stop doing it."

[Yosarian2]

The argument you espoused earlier about lynching VT's increasing the towns chance of winning, to mind, sounds like bollocks in this context. What is your rationale for that position?

Yosarian, explain your "lynch all VTs" policy and how it would be pro-toiwn in this context.

Mod fixed quote tags.

(shrug) All else being equal, even if he's no more likely to be scum then anyone else, once someone claims vanilla, it's theoretically better to lynch him then to run up someone else to a claim. The goal here being to get as few claims as possible on day 1, to keep the power roles alive as long as possible. Every claim we get today increases the odds of the scum killing a power role tonight.

Of course we're not actually going to quicklynch him just for that. That was more an expression of frustration then anything else; seriously, when's the last time we quicklynched anyone on day 1 of a large game on mafiascum? Still, I do intend to vote for him once day 1 starts, since I now consider Vezo a better then random lynch. From my point of view, now Vezo is in a position where he's going to have to give me reasons to not lynch him today, rather then the other way around. If you actually have a town read on a claimed vanilla, then you don't lynch him, but if you have no read on a claimed vanilla, you generally shouldn't let him live, especially this early in a game.

[Yosarian2]

As promised,

Vote:vezokpiraka

Lynching Vezok for a bad track record, and one post that some of us disagree with on the first day, right off, with no information is certainly not a good way to start off.

Track record is irrelevent.

The fact that it only took one post is also irrelevent.

What is relevent is that now we do have a piece of information: Vezo is either scum, or he is a vanilla townie. That piece of information makes him a better of random lynch. What's even more important is that if he is town, the scum know he is not a power role, so he is less useful to the town then an unclaimed VT.

Personally, Yosarian's call for a quick end to day one, no matter how much frustration seems pretty scummy to me.

I already clarified that I don't actually want a quick end to day 1. Based on the information we have right now, Vezo is the best lynch, so I am voting for him. I expect to get more information that may or may not change that conclusion before the end of day 1.

Vezok was policy lynched D1 in 27 hours, 34 minutes in Mafia of the Chosen Ones (Thread open to hammer). It took a whopping 45 posts from thread open to hammer.

Lol. How did he manage to get lynched that quickly?

[Yosarian2]

Why do people keep calling it a "policy lynch"?

A policy lynch is generally when you lynch someone to try to change their behavior, or to make a point, or something. Lynching a claimed VT isn't a policy lynch, it's a strategic lynch that actively improves the town's odds of winning, all else being equal.

Toon Fighter's post, though, looks pretty odd to me:

DeathNote's post was, however, quite scummy, and contradictory. I think he tried to say what Yos said before, but he made a mistake. That may have been just a slip, but it is scummy nonetheless. I think we need his confirmation to what he really meant by that.

I don't at all get what you're trying to say. If you think he was trying to repeat what I said, then why was it "scummy" or "contradictory"? What "mistake" do you think he made, that may more may not have been a "slip", but is "scummy"? What do you want him to clarify?

This post really feels like Toon Fighter is trying to have it both ways about the death note case, trying to attack Death Note and "sound reasonable" at the same time, and I dislike it.

[Yosarian2]

Yosarian's posts happened in this order. It took multiple posts of his own, and another post of another player's kind of agreeing (Primate), before he stated it wasn't serious. That's plenty of time to go fishing around for people to follow along. For this, I find him the most suspicious player right now.

I only said the words "quicklynch" once, and that was in an obvious joke where I asked if we could quicklynch him before day 1 starts (which, of course, is impossible, sicne you can't vote during pre-game.) I notice you didn't even quote that post, so I guess you already knew I wasn't serious about that? So why are you trying to attack me?

I am completely serious about Vezo being a better then random lynch, of course.

[Yosarian2]

Vezok is town, and it's all but assured. Vezok is not intelligent enough to manipulate his own self meta.

Manipulating your playstyle in a larger sense througout the coruse of a game for delibrate meta reasons is hard.

Noticing "Hey, I claimed vanilla this one time, and people believed me; I wonder if it would work if I do that as scum, instead of making a stupid overcomplicated claim that will fail instantly like last time I was scum?" is easy. How hard is it to claim vanilla?

I highly doubt that anyone who has a pulse and is capable of turning on his computer is then too stupid to be able to say "I'm vanilla" when they're actually scum.

There's no reason, as town, to lynch a town player to "narrow down the PR list." It's just helping scum if anything, narrowing down their choices, thus increasing their likelihood of hitting a power role.

You have that backwards. Vezo claiming VT already narrowed down the power role list, unless we lynch him.

-Yosarian: I think the Vez lynch is a bad lynch. I dislike the way he went from really wanting to lynch Vez to seemingly state that it wasn't going to happen.

I said a Vez quicklynch is very unlikely to happen. I mean, come on; we need 13 votes to lynch someone in this game, and this is mafiascum; you couldn't get 13 people here to agree the sky is blue without a month of debate first.

I never said that Vez isn't likely to get lynched. He certainly is likely to get lynched.

Tell me the scum motivation for claiming Vanilla Townie, self-aware of meta or not, and locking yourself into that kind of claim?

Hmm? All it takes for the scum team to win is for one single scum to live the whole game and never get lynched. If people (like you, apparently) believe that "Vez who claims VT at the start of day 1 is never scum", then all Vez has to do as scum to win the entire game for his team is claim VT. You don't get a better scum motive then that.

On the other hand, there is no town motive for claiming VT. None. Zilch.

[quote="HezLucky]

I don't at all get what you're trying to say. If you think he was trying to repeat what I said, then why was it "scummy" or "contradictory"? What "mistake" do you think he made, that may more may not have been a "slip", but is "scummy"? What do you want him to clarify?

This post really feels like Toon Fighter is trying to have it both ways about the death note case, trying to attack Death Note and "sound reasonable" at the same time, and I dislike it.

Lots of questions to suggest that the person is scummy, and a vague statement that tries to sway people to his side while being too passive to really make it seem to anyone like he cares about this wagon. Yos2/Toon Fighter buddies?[/quote]

Wait. You agree with my attack on Toonfighter, but you think I'm scummy for making it, because I "asked questions"?

What's wrong with asking questions? How else am I supposed to find the scum if I'm not supposed to question people I find suspicious?

Anyway, there WAS no wagon at the time. I was the FIRST person to attack ToonFighter, and I wasn't at all "passive" or "vague" about it. This seems like a bizzare line of reasoning; "Person A attacked person B and asked person B questions, so they must be scum together!"

Anyway, Toon's answer to my questions was really disappointing.

He said we should lynch vez to narrow down the PR list. Well, that IS scummy. But, if we lynched someone OTHER than Vez, we would narrow down the PR list even more than with lynching Vez (assuming he is telling the truth). Therefore, something is wrong with his argument, and it contradicts itself. What he may have meant is to lynch vezok narrow down the scum list or something, but the way it is phrased, it looks scummy to me.

Lynching Vez AVOIDS having the scum narrow down the PR list, obviously. The scum already know he's not a power role. If we bandwagon someone else to a claim, and then get perhaps 2 or 3 more claims today and lynch one of them, then the odds of a power role living long enough to be useful goes way down. The more claims the town gets day 1, the worse for the town.

What DN was saying seems really clear to me; it was just the same thing I was saying, and you seemed to realize that. I don't get how you went from "he was trying to repeat what Yos said" to then completely not understanding what he was saying.

[Yosarian2]

I'm still waiting to hear why lynching claimed VTs improves the towns odds.

I think I already explained this, but I'll explain it again, in more detail.

The longer the town power roles live, the higher the odds of the town winning are. A single cop, by himself, if allowed to get off 3 investigations and then claim, has a pretty drastic influence on the town's chances of winning; keeping power roles may have a bigger impact then the day 1 lynch, all in all, especially since even the smartest towns usually fail to lynch correctly on day 1 in any case.

The best way to keep town power roles alive, especially in the early game, is usually to keep them hidden. (There are a few setups where this isn't necessarily true, such as the old doc-cop 7p newbie game, but those setups are really rare in the current meta.)

One of the most important things a VT can do for power roles is to provide camouflage. Pulling numbers out of thin air to make a point; 4-5 power roles, hidden in a group of 15 other vanilla townies, are hard for the scum to find. Every time one of those vanilla townies claim, and then lives until night, the odds of the scum killing a town power role goes up. If a person claims vanilla town, and then survives for multiple nights, then the scum have a better chance of killing town power roles every single one of those nights. That is (assuming 5 pro-town power roles and 19 VT's); if nobody claims without getting lynched, and if the scum keep missing power roles, the odds of scum killing town power roles are 5/19 night 1, 5/17 night 2, 5/15 night 3, 5/13 night 4, 5/11 night 5, ect. If there is someone who's claimed vanilla, and then is allowed to live for several days, then if he's telling the truth, those odds increase to 5/18 night 1, 5/16 night 2, 5/14 night 3, 5/12 night 4, 5/10 night 5, ect. Over the course of the game, especially in a large game like this one that could potentially last up to 10 or so days if there's 1 kill a night, that's a very significant difference. Basically, allowing a claimed vanilla to live is bad for the odds of power roles surviving, and the earlier it happens and the longer he lives, the worse it gets. Also, that's all assuming that no one else claims all game, which is clearly not going to happen; every time we get another claim, the living claimed vanilla becomes worse and worse for the town, as the scum are shooting into a smaller and smaller pool.

And it's even worse then that; if we bandwagon someone who's not Vezo to a claim today, because of Vezo's claim, there's now a higher chance that we'll bandwagon a power role to a claim, which obviously helps the scum even more. Or, we might bandwagon another vanillia; what will you want to do if someone else claims vanilla today? Let them live, too?

In the normal course of a day, the town will usually get 2-3 claims before lynching someone anyway, which isn't good.

Basically, all in all, a claimed vanilla townie is a liability to the town at night, while running him up on a bandwagon during the day is a lower risk then doing that with anyone else. Now, if you've got a reasonably high confidence level that the claimed vanilla townie IS pro-town, OR if you've got another suspect that is significantly more likely then he is to be scum, or POSSIBLY if the claimed vanilla townie is a person who might be a huge asset to the town during the day if he does turn out to be town, then you MIGHT consider keeping him alive, if you think the benefits to lynching someone else outweigh the risks. You need a good reason, though; in the absence of other information, if you want to maximize the chances of the town winning, you're better off lynching someone who's already claimed vanilla then you are running up someone else to a claim.

Prievew Pane Edit: For the record, I do agree with Internet Stranger here; the Vezo "scumslip" is pretty thin.

[Yosarian2]

But we can't lynch him on: 1)Claiming VT early

Pretty sure we can.

If we will or not is still an open question. But it's defiantly an option.

[Yosarian2]

I definitely do. If he is townie, I want his clan lynched right after him. This means Internet Stranger, and who else is defending vezok for easy town points?

I don't find IS's behavior to be suspicious at this point. So far his behavior feels like pro-town intended scumhunting; he's bringing attention by attacking someone based on what he considers suspicious behavior, and it's someone that no one else has even really noticed yet. That gives me a good vibe.

Just as a note: there's a tendency, when this kind of mafia theory debate is central in a game decision, for people on one side of the debate to attack people on the other side of the debate, back and fourth, splitting the town into factions. We should try to avoid that; it's usually counterproductive, it makes the town easier for scum to manipulate, playing one faction off against the other, and there's always going to be some town and some scum on both sides of a debate like this.

[Yosarian2]

Defending vezok or chainsawing his attackers is inherently a scummy move. But, if vezok was on my team, I wouldn't defend him...

I don't think he was defending Vezok.

I dont think that we absolutely must get rid of Vezo now, although he continues to find ways to dig himself in that much deeper. If we are to assume that Vezok is a townie, there should be at least 1 anti-human scum voting for him right now. (Including the newest entries, Albert and Amrun).

In my opinion it should come down to either Vezo or someone voting for him right now. Im voting Surye.

Surye

If no one else agrees on Surye, im willing to go with Kison instead.

"Let's either lynch Vezok, or the scummiest guy voting for Vezok" makes sense to me, in a way. If Vezok is town, then there's probably some scum voting for him.

[Yosarian2]

"Let's either lynch Vezok, or the scummiest guy voting for Vezok" makes sense to me, in a way. If Vezok is town, then there's probably some scum voting for him.

I'd be surprised if there aren't Scum both on and off of the wagon. Is there any particular reason why you would think it's best to look on the wagon?

(shrug) Either way works.

Anyway, why are you asking me? We're talking about IS's behavior here. I just don't think Albert's discription of IS's behavior make sense.

[Yosarian2]

Yosarian: Have you ever enforced this "lynch vanilla day one" strategy before? Could you show me where, if so.

(uses mafiascum search function)

Well, I mentioned it here, in this large game:

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... 5#p2133515

...did you seriously just claim VT when you were nowhere near a lynch?

Did you really miss my long diatribe this game on why it's anti-town for any vanilla townie to ever claim vanilla, under almost any circumstances? And it's especially bad since you weren't in any imminent danger of being lynched?

Generally, once someone claims vanilla, the town pretty much has to either lynch them or vig them.

I then went on to explain the theory a lot more after that point in the game.

It also came up in Battle Mafia:

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... 7#p1846447

Yeah, I wasn't planning on quicklynching DT today either. But then he claimed vanilla for absolulty no reason. Lol.

Vote:DT Master

You could find a bunch more examples, if you look; sadly the old boards are down right now, but it's an opinion I've had for a long time. You can find stuff on the MD board about it as well.

[Yosarian2]

Lets say statistically scum has a 50% chance of claiming VT, 50% other.

In standard 9:3 game, with 4 town powers... there is about a 70% chance any VT claim is truthful, 70% in this game? Thats awesome. Lynching VTs may slightly help protect PRs, but the significantly cut down chances of lynching scum, and that is the true goal of the game.

News flash: town only lynches correctly on day 1 about 30% of the time anyway. Some studies have actually shown town day 1 lynches to be less accurate then random, probably due to scum manipulation.

[Yosarian2]

@Yos: Scum now have better chances of killing a PR. So what? Mafia is first based on behavioral analysis, then night actions.

Mafia is based on both, of course.

In this case, your actions make absolutely no sense as town, claiming vanilla like you did hurts the town for absolutely no gain to the town, so you don't look especially good in terms of behavioral analysis either.

By the way; I saw your claim that "all you care about is survival". If that's true, then either you're scum, or else you should probably be modkilled for playing against your win condition. But you know what? Even if all you care about is survival, then you STILL should stop claiming on day 1, because it dosn't help your survival either. All it's done here is drastically increase your chances of getting lynched. I very likely would not be voting for you right now if it wasn't for your incredibly anti-town behavior.

What do you think is better: In 3 man LyLo :

1

We have on doctor alive, one townie and one scum. YAY. One unconfirmed PR that does nothing.

2

We have one townie who is pretty much confirmed because of the way he played( lead the lynching wagons on scum, or something like that), one townie and one scum.

Your claim means you will never be cop investigated, you will never be confirmed, you are very unlikely to ever be considered trustworthy town by anyone. So no matter which one of those is better, they both are more likely to happen if you're dead before lynch or lose.

[Yosarian2]

Bah, stupid hydra account.

Anyway, for the third time,

unvote

Vote:vezokpiraka

[Yosarian2]

Yos: could you please tell me what you think of Surye, AGar, Albert and Brian?

Albert looks town-ish. He COULD do this as scum, but I don't really see why he would (unless he just hates playing with Vezo THAT much.) For the most part, though, his play has that "I don't give a crap what anyone thinks because I'm town" feel to it.

Brian looks town-ish.

I'm kind of null on both Surye and Agar at the moment.

Agar could be town white-knighting someone for meta reasons, although the odds of Agar being town go way do if Vezo flips scum.

I'm kind of null on Surye at the moment. The wagon against him feels town driven, but I'm not really convinced by it. He could go either way.

[Yosarian2]

I do have to agree with Prozac here. If you think person X is scummy, and someone asks you to explain why, you should be more then happy to do so; if you're town, you want to figure out the person's alignment and/or convince other people to join the wagon. Your reluctance and defensiveness about explaining your own case feels kind of odd.

[Yosarian2]

P-edit: I haven't actually been defensive at all. When I saw the post originally, I made a note of it and planned to make a better case on toon fighter when I had the chance but saw no need to address the post particularly. I just took it as a "step up your game" reminder rather than actual pressure. I'm very busy at the moment and have been posting on my phone most of the time. Tomorrow is my last exam, thankfully, so I can hopefully start paying more attention to games more. When Porochaz addressed it again, I said that I would make a case on tf asap. I was literally posting that from dinner with my father-in-law so making a case right then wasn't my top prority.

I wouldn't have had a problem with you saying "I'll post a full case when I have time" or something. But your tone in this post just struck me as being oddly resistant to explain yourself:

I'll make a case on TF when I am good and ready to. I want to see him and others post more before I do so.

[Yosarian2]

@Porochaz You haven't played with Internet Stranger before, have you?

Nope but from your post I can guess the type of poster he is.

IS is basically the guy who invented the archtype of the hyper-agressive bloodthirsty lynch pusher who makes short, to the point posts. Both Fritzler and Baby Jesus's playstyle was heavily influenced on IS's. He's also very effective, for either side.

IS feels townish to me so far this game, but that's based on a meta of him that's about 6 years out of date at this point.

[Yosarian2]

But honestly, if it's that bad of a plan, okay.

It is a bad plan.

What's worse, it's the kind of bad plan that, if you get enough people talking about it, is likely to help the scum find the cop. You suggesting that plan is potentially a rolefishy move on your part.

[Yosarian2]

@Surye -there is no Vez "situation". A pseudo problem has been created by OTHER PEOPLE. Vez claimed. Cool. Its everyone elses reactions that is the issue.
Apologies if that is what you mean by "Vez situation".

?

He. Claimed. Vanilla.

When someone claims vanilla, generally speaking,, you lynch them, unless you don't want the town to win. Also, pro-town people shouldn't ever claim vanilla, only scum should ever consider doing that kind of thing, because if a pro-town person claims vanilla it hurts his win condition for no reason.

I'm confused about why you're calling that a problem "created by other people" and not by Vez.

[Yosarian2]

I was away this weekend and will finish getting caught up this afternoon, but until then, I just have to point out the bizzarness of this post:

I just noticed this new attack on Furcolow, and I'm trying to be impartial, but there are evidence that may support his innocence.
...
As I am not getting anything satisfactory out of DeathNote (or any more scummy reads) I shall

unvote

and

vote: Furcolow

. Let's see how you act with a little more pressure on you. I want answers.

...huh?

Why would you start out a post trying to give "evidence that Furclaw might be innocent", and then vote him in the same post?

[Yosarian2]

.

Yosarian, are you saying that people are really vanilla townies should LIE and claim PR? How in the world is that pro-town?!

NO no no no no. no no. PLEASE no. God no. Also, no.

What I am saying is that people who are vanilla should not claim at all, not even to pressure, unless there is a very specific role-based reason to do so. A vanilla claim dosn't give the town any information, it shouldn't prevent your lynch (in fact, it should cause your lynch), and if you do claim vanilla and then live, it hurts the town. If you're a vanilla at lynch -1, you should just keep defending yourself without claiming. A person should only claim if they think their claim is going to help the town, and a vanilla claim generally won't. (There are a few exceptions to this rule, such as open game where town knows how many vanillas there are or during massclaims.)

In any case, that's an irrelevent theory discussion here, and some people don't agree with me on it. What everyone agrees on is that if you're town, you don't claim vanilla for no reason.

[Yosarian2]

let's prove ABR right, shall we?

vote: Furcolow

Uh.

ABR said "scum are going to vote for Furcolow."

So....you vote for yourself to "prove him right"?

...

Are you trying to win the "biggest VI" award with this post or something? Because this may be the single worst 8 word post I have ever seen.

[Yosarian2]

Yosarian

: what's your opinion of Vezok's play beyond the vanilla claim?

Meh. Most of his posts were pretty useless, defensinve, or OMGUS. I will mention that his attack on Surye did seem fairly rational, but that being said, I have my doubts about if Vezo would have voted for Surye if Surye didn't vote him first. For the most part, I'll say that Vez hasn't done anything to convince me he's town.

[Yosarian2]

Other suspects of mine right now:

ToonFighter: A lot of his posts seem somewhat off or somewhat self contradictory. Not a strong read, but something just feels wrong here.

Medicated Lain: I'm not really clear why she went from defending Vez (Well, specifially, attacking me for voting Vez) to voting for Vez herself. I don't mind you changing your midn, Lain, but I'd feel better if I understood exactally what in the thread convinced you to change your mind on Vez.


Also IGMEO suyve. Like I said, his "plan" was bad, and potentially role-fishy-bad. That's not a strong tell, tbh, but I would really like to hear him comment on some people in the game other then Vez, which he hasn't really done yet. Suyve, who do you think is scummy, and who do you think is town?

[Yosarian2]

I'm not saying Vezok is confirmed town in my eyes, but he deserves a fair chance at playing the game.

He had a fair chance at playing the game. Then he claimed vanilla. Once you jump out of a plane without a parachute, you probably aren't going to win the competitive skydiver's competition.

Also, Yossy, are you seriously saying that a Vanilla on the chopping block shouldn't claim? I really hope I'm misinterpreting that.

Absolutly. A vanilla at lynch -1 should refuse to claim and just keep defending himself. The last time I claimed vanilla under any circumstances was about 4 years ago, and that was only because someone had claimed tracker and had claimed he saw me go somewhere when I couldn't have done so.

[Yosarian2]

Amrun: Yeah, I read your case. I don't disagree with it, and Toon Fighter is currenlty on the very short list of people I might consider lynching over Vez.

[Yosarian2]

Sensfan: Let me put it this way.

Scenerio A: Both scum and vanilla town refuse to claim when at lynch -1.

Scenerio B: Both scum and vanilla town claim vanilla when at lynch -1.

I think scenerio A is better for the town. Someone claiming vanilla town dosn't actually give the town any real information, but it gives the scum a lot of information.

[Yosarian2]

Sticking to generally shorter posts for now unless otherwise needed.

Yes or no answer only to this question:
Do you think it's a coincidence that his only 3 posts are, respectively, 5 hours, 2 minutes and 4 minutes after being mentioned/voted by someone else?

Absolutely not.

Fos: Furcolow

The points made against him are very clear.. no need to state again, and I can understand and agree, but I also still think that Vez is both scummy looking and detrimental to the town. Still not many replies on his wording claim though? None in defense from Vez himself? Thinking about the lack of defense seems some what less scummy though, in that it's more like an 'I've given up' attitude... I still worry about his position in this game, and think he is detrimental, but maybe it's alright to worry about it a different time, since most don't seem to agree with this logic right now.

The most suspicious standing out people to me right now are Vez, AGAR, and Furcolow. I think I need to do a re-read of the whole game.. Internet Stranger, Kison and Cog also have some points stacked up against them, but not nearly as much as the top three, and I think any of them are the best shots at hitting scum. I'm especially willing to vote for Vez today, but since it's not helping the game right now, let's try a new direction.

I think more than the people that are posting though, I am very worried about all the first day lurkers, so let's try:

unvote, vote:fuzzy lightning

Seriously? No posts this whole game? Are we waiting for a replacement there or something?

Some things in this post give me a bad gut feeling about Lian. The odd wishy washy position of Vez ("He's not defending himself, but maybe that's somewhat less scummy then I thought, but I think his play is detremental, but perhaps we'll worry about it later") feels scummy. The FOS of Furcolow, with a reluctance to go into detail why, also feels like she's trying to have it both ways on that wagon. She also attacks Agar, doesn't say why she's doing that either. She's trying to say that she wants to lynch Vez, but...gets off the Vez wagon, when it's still one of the largest in the game, because it's "not helping the game"?

unvote

Vote:Medicated Lain

[Yosarian2]

3: Oh, and I am good enough to find scum Day One in a large game. Quite frankly, it's not that impressive a feat. Here, I'll go through the games for you:

Ok. So who's scum this game, then?

[Yosarian2]

{to LlamaFluff}

The fact that you keep repeating over and over again that certain people are "obviously town" doesn't actually make it so.

Agree 100%. It's getting irritating.

---

Furcolow's last three posts were:
1) Voting for himself
2) Voting for Medicated Lain, whom had no votes* before Yos2's post.
3) Votes for Zindaras, whom also had no votes* before ABR's post.

This is blatant wagon-hopping, try to get behind anything that might possibly turn into a wagon.

Wait...if he votes for people who don't have any votes, that's not wagon hopping; if anything, that's wagon starting,

[Yosarian2]

You'd go a long way at healing that particular rift if you could point out a previous game in which you specifically mentioned and deliberated on the vanilla claim policy.

Huh? I've already linked to two earlier games where I used the same policy about lynching people who claim vanilla, my ISO post #14.

Yosarian: Have you ever enforced this "lynch vanilla day one" strategy before? Could you show me where, if so.

(uses mafiascum search function)

Well, I mentioned it here, in this large game:

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... 5#p2133515

...did you seriously just claim VT when you were nowhere near a lynch?

Did you really miss my long diatribe this game on why it's anti-town for any vanilla townie to ever claim vanilla, under almost any circumstances? And it's especially bad since you weren't in any imminent danger of being lynched?

Generally, once someone claims vanilla, the town pretty much has to either lynch them or vig them.

I then went on to explain the theory a lot more after that point in the game.

It also came up in Battle Mafia:

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... 7#p1846447

Yeah, I wasn't planning on quicklynching DT today either. But then he claimed vanilla for absolulty no reason. Lol.

Vote:DT Master

You could find a bunch more examples, if you look; sadly the old boards are down right now, but it's an opinion I've had for a long time. You can find stuff on the MD board about it as well.

I also find it weird that you switched to Lainy. After defending Vezok as the obvious perfect lynch for the entire day and the only one which is mathematically correct, you suddenly switch to a new wagon on a gut call?

I've said all along that while Vez is a decent lynch today just because he'd claimed vanilla, that I would be glad to lynch someone else if I thought they were likely to be scum. Vez is a better then random lynch, and it's still one I would still be happy with, but of course the main goal is still to lynch scum. I also said earlier that I would consider lynching TF over Vez. I've certainly never said that Vez is the only logical lynch for today, just that he's a good lynch unless we come up with a better suspect.

Zindy, I think the problem some people have with your play is that for most of your posts, you spend a lot of time discussing why we should schumhunt, but you've spent a lot less time obviously scumhunting yourself. That was why I asked you who you thought the scum was, and I also think it's why some people are voting for you.

[Yosarian2]

Is it really *that* scummy to look at a situation, and take more factors into account?
1. Saying something about your role that goes against a *fact* is scummy.
2. Not responding in defense feels like a given up state, which is something I don't associate with mafia.

The issue isn't that you're talking factors into account. It's more that it feels like you're being wishy washy on every major bandwagon, which makes me wonder if you're deliberately trying to avoid pinning yourself down to any positions you could be attacked for later.

I've said all along that while Vez is a decent lynch today just because he'd claimed vanilla, that I would be glad to lynch someone else if I thought they were likely to be scum. Vez is a better then random lynch, and it's still one I would still be happy with, but of course the main goal is still to lynch scum. I also said earlier that I would consider lynching TF over Vez. I've certainly never said that Vez is the only logical lynch for today, just that he's a good lynch unless we come up with a better suspect.

But where does the Lain-vote come from? Like I said, I think a gut call is not a lot to change a vote over, especially not with everything that's been going on. What about the rest of her posts?

Gut was perhaps the wrong word. I think she's trying to have it both ways on several major wagons, and avoiding making an absolute commitment one way or another to any of them. It's not just that one post, either, it's all of them, although that post was a good example.

Look at her response to the Vez wagon. First she attacks me for suggesting that Vez's claim is a valid reason to lynch him. Then she votes Vez, apparently because of his claim. And now, in her most recent post, she both attacks and defends Vez at the same time, and she came up with an answer that sounds to me like "I want to lynch Vez, but not today". (Please correct me if that's not what you meant, Lian, but that's the impression I got from your posting.)

She also FOS'd Furcolow, but didn't spend much time talking about him, or really say why she herself suspects him, other then to make a vauge point about "other comments made against him". She has also made several FOS-type attacks against Agar, apparnetly because she dosn't like that he's defending Vez, but she never really explained why she thinks that makes him scum.

She attacked 6 people in that post, and I don't really know why she suspects any of them. And then she votes for someone who flaked before the game started; lurker voting is great, don't get me wrong, but it feeds into the impression I'm getting that she doesn't want to take any real stands this game.

When I voted her, she responds with:

Seriously, you need me to keep repeating over and over, why I find these people suspicious? Look at my past posts, it's there

But, other then the "I don't like the way he's defending Vez" reason for suspecting Agar, I don't really understand why she finds any of those 6 people suspicious.

[Yosarian2]

The really quick wagon on him too, bull. If he was scum, where was the counterwagon? I mean, until the Furc thing no one got beyond what... three votes? It was boom boom boom policy. I just dont see that happening without scum flinching.

Eh, I don't really buy that argument.

First of all, I'm not sure I accept "the scum would have flinched if the town tried to lynch their buddy Vez." Considering the way Vez played so far this game, bussing him would seem a pretty reasonable option. Secondly, how do you know the scum "haven't flinched"? A fairly large percentage of the people in this game have defended Vez; if he is scum, it's quite possible that he has been defended by some of his buddies.

I'm not convinced that Vez is scum, but your argument for him being town isn't convincing either.

[Yosarian2]

Agreed. IF you have opinions on anything or anyone in the game, DeathNote, I'd like to hear them.

[Yosarian2]

Reading up.

We could go for a Furcolow lynch. We haven't liked his play this game either, yaddayaddayadda pretty much what's been said. If there's a vig though, it would be very nice if you could get rid of Vezok for us. <3

-Singer

Please town player, save us a night-kill on this obvtown player so we can optimize ours.

...so, the theory that you're going with here is really that the scum are considering nightkilling Vez, the claimed vanilla who hasn't done anything useful yet and who about half the people in the game want to lynch?

[Yosarian2]

So now we've got TWO people who are claimed vanillas. Greeat.

Furc, did you miss the whole part where I explained why vanillas should never claim, not even to pressure? So frustrating.

[Yosarian2]

That being said...I still don't especially want to lynch Furcolow today. I just don't think he's all that likely to be scum.

[Yosarian2]

Hey hey, let's be consistent here, Yos. Furcolow claimed VT and must die.

Bah. Consistency is for scum and losers.

Between the two of them, I'd rather lynch Vez then Furcolow. I think Liam is more likely to be scum then either one of them, though.

[Yosarian2]

Who is Liam?

Can we stop using first names?

Sorry, typo. Liam should have been Lian. As in, Medicated Lain.

[Yosarian2]

...yes, yes I do. Sigh.

[Yosarian2]

@Yos

Care to grace 628 with a response? I put, like, a whole 10 minutes into that post yesterday morning. (But seriously, I responded to what seemed like a pointed line in it, expected a response to something like that).

(shrug) I think your post 628 was kind of a stretch. The idea that scum would feel threatened by Vez to the point when they'd try to direct a vig to kill him is kind of silly; if Vez is town, then scum would probably want to keep him around to mislynch later. That being said, I dropped the subject because continuing to discuss what possible town power roles should or should not do is unnecessarily risky for very little gain here.

[Yosarian2]

Prozac, take a good read of all of Amrun's posts, and tell me what you think. She looks pretty town to me, all in all, even though I disagree with the whole "porochez is pushing easy wagons" argument. I'm not really clear about why you're voting for her.

[Yosarian2]

I dont understand why everyone insists on wasting time voting for anyone other than Furc or Surye. Either join the failwagon and ill lynch the hell out of you later or vote for Surye.

Meh. I'd rather lynch scum. Surye could be scum, Furc probably isn't. I don't want another half-assed wagon that leads to more stupid claiming.

the fact you have been defending DN with quite a bit of fervour yet absolutely nothing to back it up with.

Ok; why is her defending DN a scumtell, when we don't know DN's alignment yet?

[Yosarian2]

Prozac, take a good read of all of Amrun's posts, and tell me what you think. She looks pretty town to me, all in all, even though I disagree with the whole "porochez is pushing easy wagons" argument. I'm not really clear about why you're voting for her.

Amrun always looks town. Read carefully.

I understand what you mean, but, eh. Push on the TF wagon looks town-ish. Reluctance to lynch Vez early on, followed by a vote on him when he screwed up the win condition, but then that vote was withdrawn when she thought about it; that all makes sense from a pro-town point of view. Hardcore defense of DN makes sense to me, especially since the early wagon on him was so terrible. The early wagon on DN looked to me like people thought "Well, I can go after someone for pushing the Vez lynch, but Yos is probably hard to lynch, so let me go after an easier target who's making the same argument." He was basically attacked for saying the exact same thing I was saying, just in a somewhat less clear and coherently worded way. DN's recent content has been pretty crappy, and I'm not happy with him right now, but I wouldn't expect that to necessarily change the mind of someone who thought they had a town read on them. If DN is scum, Amrun looks bad, but short of that, I don't see it.

After the absolute disaster that was my last game, I'm much less willing to just write people off as town early, but I don't really see the case against Amrun here at all.

[Yosarian2]

Medicated Lain: From what I can tell, the reasons for voting Lain have been because her play was "wishy-washy" (Yosarian2) for voting Vezok (LlamaFluff) and for voting a non-poster after making cases against other players (MrBuddyLee). If I'm interpreting those reasons right, the MBL case is the only one I can really agree with. I actually support "wishy-washy" play over blind tunneling. You can't know for sure who scum is. And voting Vezok is easily justifiable based on his early play.

There's nothing wrong with changing your mind, or with being unsure. The problem I had with ML's play, at least at up until the time I pointed it out, was that she was being noncommital on everything. She was playing both sides on Vez, on Furcolow, on every wagon that might go anywhere. She had a case against Agar, but was reluctant to vote him, and instead voted for someone who hadn't posted all game. No matter who got lynched today, no matter if Vez or Furcolow flipped town or flipped scum, we would get zero information about ML, and I thought that might have been intentional. Her stance on Vez was also weird; she attacked me for the position I took about lynching vanillas, but then she seemed to agree with me, but then she seemed to want to put Vez off to lynch later, which just seems anti-town; lynching him for his vanilla claim is arguably pro-town, ignoring the claim and trying to get a behavioral read off of him is arguably pro-town, but she seemed to want to lynch him, just not today, and that's anti-town.

She's taken a bit stronger stances since I pointed this out, particially on Agar. I don't really get a good vibe from the post where she attacked IS, though; IS seems pretty pro-town to me at this point. All in all, she still looks like someone who's fairly likely to be scum to me.

Yosarian2: From past experience, I have always had a high opinion of you. You had a habit of posting what I was thinking before I said it. This game started that way, but as the game developed I've found myself disagreeing with you and believing what you were saying is just playin wrong. You seem to have developed an attitude of "this is how I play Mafia, and I'll be damned if you play otherwise". I find it suspicious how motivated you are to get other people to agree with you.

how so?

I'd have thought I was being pretty reasonable towards people with different playstyles and different opinions, such as Agar for example, so long as they seemed to have plausible pro-town motivation for their actions.

[Yosarian2]

Yos' inconsistency regarding how he handled the vezokclaim and the furcolowclaim suggests scum to me.

I'm not going to lynch someone who I think is likely town just because they claimed vanilla to pressure. Claiming vanilla to pressure is a dumb move, but most people on mafiascum do it, so it's not a tell. The entire point I was making is that you lynch claimed vanillas if you don't have a read on them, not that you want to lynch people who actually seem to be vanilla town.

And, yes, I'm saying that I think Furcolow is likely town, despite some pretty bad plays on his part. I guess if it absolutely came down to lynching Furcolow or not lynching anyone, I'd rather lynch Furcolow now that he's claimed vanilla, but I would not be happy about it.

[Yosarian2]

Going to be V/LA for a 3 day weekend, leaving tonight, coming back monday.

[Yosarian2]

I was mostly referring to the amount of time and effort you've spent trying to convince people that lynching a D0 claimed VT is the correct play, and trying to convince people that people should never claim VT ever ever. Not everyone follows the same line of logic, opinions differ.

Yes, of course they do.

I also got almost everyone in the game to comment on if they would support a day 1 lynch of Vez or not; and, since I don't think many people in this game other then me have a known opinion on the matter, that gives scum a lot of wiggle room. If Vez does flip scum, who went what way on that debate is going to be very useful information.

[Yosarian2]

Surye (13) - (Internet Stranger, Zindaras, vezokpiraka, Kison, Cogito Ergo Sum, HezLucky, Furcolow, AGar, DeathNote, Kublai Khan, Primate, LlamaFluff, ReaperCharlie)

Just for the sake of argument, I'm going to assume there were at least some scum actively pushing this wagon, from a reasonably early point.

Vez was town. I'm pretty sure IS is town as well. And I'm not worried about the last few people who joined it to prevent a no-lynch, that's pretty much null.

CES: Can you explain why you went from the Furcolow wagon over to the Surve wagon, while at the same time attacking me for not being on the Furcolow wagon?

[Yosarian2]

In regards to (b), an anti-town role that allows them to send fake amnesiac cop results to players sounds very powerful. Such a power, if it existed, could allow that player to essentially dictate two lynches (in our example, one lynch on Llama's result, one lynch on Llama for "lying to the town") while remaining completely anonymous.

Meh. Not that powerful. The "messanger" role, or whatever it's called these days, basically lets you send an annonomous message to another player by first sending it to the mod and then the mod fowards it. It's a fairly weak role, for either alignment, because people tend to not take weird annonomous messages all that seriously, for good reason.

I doubt there's a cult recruiter. That being said, I also don't have any strong reason to think Llama is lying. He probably got that message. Even if he did, though, that dosn't actually tell us anything about Llama's alignment either.

The whole thing is probably just a giant red herring of some kind.

[Yosarian2]

Only the cop would know who it was.

LF says the PM said a specific player is the cult recruiter. I might be reading it wrong but I interpret that sentence as meaning that the PM included said specific person. Otherwise, it would make no sense for the whole "specific player" thing to be there.

It does, but unless the person who sent this claims to be a player who has absolutely no barring over who they target, if they live, I am fine. Also its about 90% false, I mean, town amnesic role cop who only gets the role name, but NOT character name, in a game where there is no role (ie Cult Recruiter) attached to the character?

Its false. Im saying this as much for the offchance that its true as that no one gets suckered by it in the future.

I trust the result even less (about 1% odds, in my opinion), but I just don't see why we wouldn't want it out there. We'd want it out there to ignore, but there's no real downside as long as we don't act upon it until we get some hard evidence. Also, if it

is

fake, then we know that the targeted person probably isn't part of the scumgroup which is trying to deceive us.

I absolutly agree with Zinderas here. You do need to release all the information in whatever PM you're saying you got Llama. We won't just blindly lynch the person, but we do need to know.

[Yosarian2]

Yeah not claiming that result today, MAYBE will claim it tomorrow if im around, but I had nothing to do with the cult result so someone else will have the result (the investigator).

I don't get it. If you have information, why not share it? If we're dealing with a scum messenger that's screwing with us, then at least we'll know who that person tried to frame.

Waiting until tomorrow seems pretty pointless.

[Yosarian2]

Anyway, before I get any more distracted, let me go back to the train of thought I started the day with.

Surye (13) - (Internet Stranger, Zindaras, vezokpiraka, Kison, Cogito Ergo Sum, HezLucky, Furcolow, AGar, DeathNote, Kublai Khan, Primate, LlamaFluff, ReaperCharlie)

Just for the sake of argument, I'm going to assume there were at least some scum actively pushing this wagon, from a reasonably early point.

Vez was town. I'm pretty sure IS is town as well. And I'm not worried about the last few people who joined it to prevent a no-lynch, that's pretty much null.

If there was a scum pushing the Surye lynch from a fairly early point, I'm thinking it was probably either Kison, who attacked Surye but didn't really do much of anything else on day 1 (he also attacked bamboomancer early on, but seems to have forgotten it and hasn't had any questions or anything for Bamboomancer's replacement) or CES; I'm not really impressed by CES's posting day 1 in general. Zindaras is also possible, but that seems less likely to me.

Vote:Kison

for now.

[Yosarian2]

That's horrid, Yosarian.

You're basically going:
1) take a group of people
2) state that there's bound to be scum in there without explanation, relying on the size of the group to make your statement seem sufficiently plausible
3) call out several members of the group as being likely town
4) ignore the fact that it undermines that this undermines 2)
5) conclude that the other members of the group are somehow now more likely to be scum

Without explanation? It's pretty rare that a pro-town person is lynched without some scum involved in helping to push the bandwagon, especially in a large game like this, CES; it's possible, but it's unlikely. Bad wagons usually have some kind of scum backing to make them happen. So, if that is the case, I was trying to figure out who that might be. What part of that logic do you disagree with?

[Yosarian2]

What I don't understand, from both Yossy and Furry:

1) The vote count is crap and you should know this. I was the first one to vote Surye and I'm listed after IS. Kison voted Surye in 543, which is after Hez (526). Vezok should technically be a lot later in the line-up because he unvoted and revoted later on. Also note how the mods failed to see both Hez's 526 and Kison's 543. Primate actually voted Surye in 648, which is before CES and Fur, but because he only mentioned it later, he got plugged it elsewhere. So the correct order is, I believe:
Surye (13) - (Zindaras, Internet Stranger, vezokpiraka, HezLucky, Kison, Primate, Cogito Ergo Sum, Furcolow, AGar, DeathNote, Kublai Khan, LlamaFluff, ReaperCharlie) (I've kept Vezok where he was despite his later short unvote/revote)

Kison didn't vote Surye until later in the day, yes, but he was FOSing him from fairly early on. He was one of the people pushing the wagon, certainly.

2) Since when did leading a wagon become scummier than hopping on one?

In this case, we have "people who pushed the wagon", "people who hopped on later", and "a few people who joined at the end to ensure we didn't get a no-lynch". I am suggesting that there are likely to be some scum in the first two groups.

4) There's no actual reason to single out the Surye wagon. We have a perfectly fine other wagon on a Townie (the Vezok wagon) and yet somehow this isn't interesting to you. Let's look:
vezokpiraka (7) - (SensFan, DeathNote,

Surye

, Albert B. Rampage, Medicated Lain, Porochaz, Yosarian2)
Since, statistically speaking, the odds of there being no scum on this wagon are extremely slim, there must be scum on this wagon. Let's just lynch them all until we find scum!

The point is that when a townie wagon succeeds, it usually has some direct backing from the scum voting block. A day 1 wagon just isn't that likely to succeed without that; if the scum are 25% of the town, then a wagon supported by the scum is going to succeed much more often then one that isn't. So you can take a look at how a townie wagon unfolded and try to figure out who seems likely to have been a scum pushing the wagon.

A townie wagon that dosn't succeed may or may not have had scum backing.

Anyway, I just used that as a jumping off point to look at some players, Zindy. Take a look at Kison and CES yourself, and tell me what you think about their play so far this game.

[Yosarian2]

Bah; screwed up the quote tags in a way to make the post confusing. Mod, feel free to deleate the previous post, I'll fix it here.

Fixed.

He didn't really push it. I think IS and I were the only ones who did active pushing.

If Kison didn't push the Suyve wagon, then he didn't really do anything at all. Which is even scummier.

Still, like I said, the vote count differentials change a lot. Hez and Primate certainly deserve your analysis now, considering that they were on earlier.

I did take a good look at both of them, and neither one of them looks scummy to me. I didn't pick out Kison and CES by accident, and it didn't have anything to do with the order they were listed in in that vote count I quoted either; that was just for reference, so I would know which players to do ISO reads on.

This is nonsense. The Furcolow wagon was consistently at 7 votes throughout the game. Hence, you ignore several people who jumped on the wagon before it was even the largest wagon (and hence weren't in the "no no lynch group").

I don't actually know Furcolow's alignment yet. When I do find that out, I'll be able to analyze what it means if people jumped on or jumped off his wagon at various points. Without knowing that, I'm not sure how much we info we can get out of that wagon.

More importantly,

given the rules of the game we were never in danger of a no lynch

. A 7 player wagon would be enough, and no idiot would ever go for a late unvote if it caused a no lynch. And even if you feel that this danger was there, it's basically gone at vote 8. So votes 9 through 13 are completely useless wagon-hopping.

Interesting. I didn't realize that; I guess I'm just so used to the "no majority=no lynch" rule these days I didn't bother to check.

There are likely to be scum on both the Vezok and Furry wagons, but you choose to ignore them. When both Furry and Surye had 7 votes, some players made a choice to vote Surye over Furcolow. But, apparently, these players were only ensuring we wouldn't get a no lynch. They apparently didn't have a choice.

Sure, there could have been scum on either of the other two major wagons or on none of them. I never said ALL the scum were on the Suyve wagon. I just said that I think that at least some of them were.

While it's statistically more likely that a successful wagon has scum on it, it is not statistically more likely that a successful wagon has scum in its first 5-7 voters, compared to other 7-vote wagons. What you're suggesting is that scum already know which wagon is going to be successful.That's just silly.

No, it is more likely. You seem to be assuming that which wagons fail or succeed happens at random, which is simply untrue. If the scum voting block backs a certain wagon at an early stage, that wagon is MUCH MORE likely to GAIN momentum and go to a lynch. If there's a 4 or 5 member scum voting block, and 2 or 3 of them join a wagon early on, then that suddenly doubles the size of what would have been a small wagon, and once momentum like that starts, other people are likely to join it.

Why does person A get lynched on day 1 instead of person B, when the evidence all around either for or against both of them are minimal? Quite often, person A gets lynched instead of person B BECAUSE THE SCUM DECIDE TO LYNCH HIM, and they are able to tilt the balance of the scale that way. You're looking at it all backwards; it's not that scum KNOW what wagon is going to be successful, it's that the wagon the scum supports is much more likely to BECOME successful, because the scum are supporting it.

No, Yossy, what matters are

arguments

. I find the Vezok-wagon to be a

lot

scummier than the Surye-wagon, simply because it's filled with opportunistic players.

If you want to take apart the Vezok wagon and figure out who on that wagon looks scummy, please do. It's probably a good idea. I actually think that most of the people on the Vezok wagon look pretty town, with the exception of Medicated Lain for the reasons I discussed yesterday. But if you think that most of the scum were on the Vezok wagon, then please, make a case on someone.

It's not an either-or thing, either. If we're dealing with one mafia group and a SK, then there were probably 2 or 3 scum on the Surye wagon, and between 1 and 3 scum off the Surye wagon. If we're dealing with two mafia groups, then...i donno.

Anyway, I just used that as a jumping off point to look at some players, Zindy. Take a look at Kison and CES yourself, and tell me what you think about their play so far this game.

With the right jumping off point and the right assumptions, you can get whatever results you want. I'm going to repeat my mantra here: arguments. You ignore the vezok wagon. Why? Because you feel your own arguments were good? That doesn't mean that everyone else is clear. What I hugely dislike about this is that you're limiting your scumhunting to one very small group for no good reason, with no actual argument. And then, in that group, you don't even really look at the arguments, you just say that a couple of them aren't scum and thus one of the other ones is.

I don't know what makes you think I didn't look at the arguments. Why do you think I picked Kison and CES over people like HezLucky and Primate? The arguments they were using, and the way they approached the wagon, was obviously a big part of that.

That's not scumhunting. What I dislike even more is that you're casually ignoring the other town wagon, the one you just happened to be on.

(shrug) I think the Vez wagon was basiclaly town driven. Most of the people pushing the Vez wagon look town to me. I wouldn't be surprised if an oppurtinistc scum latched on to it at some point, just to be able to put his vote somewhere, but there's no reason for the scum to push it.

IMHO, the scum wouldn't have really WANTED to wagon Vez yesterday. The scum need to find town power roles, so the scum would have probably been pushing other wagons to try to get claims from more people instead. If you're a scum, lynching Vez yesterday wouldn't have been a bad outcome, and you might park your vote there so as to be seen doing something, but it's not what you really want to see happen. Better off just leaving him and letting him get vigged or, better yet, lynched later.

As far as Kison and Cessy go: CES is as CES does. To be honest, I hate reading him and generally just wait until he dies or claims. He is like IS, except without the posts that read as town to me. Generally, I like IS's play so far better than his, but it's going to take actual convincing for me to vote him. I'm not as happy with Kison. He's been scummy, overall. Little content, a bit of a sheep on Surye. Would have to do an actual reread of his posts, which I don't have time for right now, to pin it down better.

I'm probably a little more paranoid about CES right now then usual, considering he just completly fooled me in the Mafia with the Hydras game, but I'm not getting the happy townie-CES vibes from his play day 1 I usually get. I don't care if he makes short posts and all that meta stuff, but the way he voted, and the timing, is all around iffy. I guess I kind of like his "Furcolow self voting is a town tell" argument (I don't agree with it, but it feels like something town-CES might think), but it's weird the way he attacked me for not voting Furcolow at the same time he was getting off the Furcolow wagon. His "consistency" justification is really weak; what happened in the Furcolow wagon was completely different from what Vez did at the start of the day, he claimed to pressure instead of claiming at the start of day 1, and we had other ways to read him by that point. Especially if CES thought he got a town tell from Furcolow, I think it's bizarre he'd expect me to join the wagon just because of the vanilla claim.

As for Kison, it won't take you long to re-read his posts. Other then the Surye FOS followed by the Surye vote, he really didn't do anything other the pressure one lurker a bit, and his reasons for his Surye stuff were pretty weak. He just looks like scum to me.

Rather then spend all this time arguing with my scumhunting methods, Zindy, I think it'd be much more useful for you to decide if you agree with my suspects or not and why, and then we can go from there.

[Yosarian2]

What I most disliked about your original post was that you so explicitly reduced the subset of players you were looking at. This troubles me.

I'm not sure why that troubles you. There's a lot of people in this game, it's really easy for scum to fly under the radar for days. The best way to prevent that is to try look at the game from a different point of view then the way everyone else is, to look at specific subsets of people and try to figure out where the scum are, to do different kinds of analysis and scumhunting then what everyone else happens to be doing. Focusing in on a certain subset that's almost certain to contain some scum and some town, and then doing process of elimination, is a good way to find a scum.

I don't have to find all the scum today; I'm perfectly happy just finding and lynching one scum today.

My point here is not that you need to look at the people on the Furcolow wagon (though I personally think wagon analysis can easily be done before someone is lynched, but meh, that's not the point). My point is that, when we were on 7 votes for both players, guys like Hez and AGar jumped on the Surye wagon saying it was to ensure a no lynch.

Well, of course I took a close look at those two guys, and I don't think either one of them is especally scummy. I get a good vibe from Hez's scum analysis points posts he was doing all day yesterday; not the format, so much, but I like his conclusions and the way he came to them.

And I think Agar is likely town; the hardcore meta defense of Vez based on previous play with him is something I'd expect to see from a townie. His vote for Surye was a part of that over the top defense of Vez, and I don't have a problem with it.

I wouldn't call either one a strong town read, exactly, but they're looking more townish then, say, Kison is.

Again, I get the feeling here that you're totally misunderstanding what I'm trying to do. I'm not picking names out of a hat here.

Let's assume for a moment here that Surye's wagon is scum-led and that all the people hopping on at the last moment were townies. Then, by reasoning, Furcolow's wagon must be scum-led as well. After all, these last six townies could have either voted Furcolow or Surye, both legit wagons. The people who tilted the scales are in this case not the early voters, but the late voters. Actually, that's not completely right either. All the people on the Surye-wagon helped tilt the scales together.

Honestly, my hunch is that all 3 wagons yesterday were on pro-town people, so that's not surprising. Especally if scum are hunting for power roles, it wouldn't surprise me at all if scum bandwagoned Furcolow to a claim and then went on to another wagon once he claimed vanilla. Who are you saying switched at a late date that you think looks scummy? Can you be a little more specific?

Cophunting is a dangerous business when there's still a Doc afoot. Obviously, now it's very much to the advantage of scum if they get the Cop to claim, but that's because she's already dead.

(shrug) Even if you're assuming a game with a cop and a doc, if you wagon random people to a claim, you're not just as likely to out the doc as the cop, and every vanilla role you out increases your odds of killing either the cop or the doc. Either way, scum are going to want to wagon unclaimed people whenever they can.

Vez wasn't going to get lynched for a long time.

Eh. He most likely got vigged, though, and fairly predictably so IMHO.

For example, while I agree with you that Kison is the scummiest person who jumped early on the Surye wagon, I do not think he is the scummiest player overall. That honour goes to Albert, for reasons I shall doublepost for.

I don't really agree with you about Albert. The very aggressive "lynch vanilla claimers, lynch self voters, lynch people who make horrible anti-town plays, I don't even care what alignment they are they just have to die" stuff he was doing seems like something more likely to come from a pissed off townie then from a scum who was worried about long term survival.

[Yosarian2]

I don't really agree with you about Albert. The very aggressive "lynch vanilla claimers, lynch self voters, lynch people who make horrible anti-town plays, I don't even care what alignment they are they just have to die" stuff he was doing seems like something more likely to come from a pissed off townie then from a scum who was worried about long term survival.

You're twisting things around. You say I made anti town plays, but that's *your* opinion, *not* Albert's.

I was not talking about his vote for you. I'm talking about his vote for Vez and his vote for Furcolow, those are the two who did anti-town actions.

I like ML, I dislike the avatar.

He voted for me, putting me under the pressure of lynch, yet saying that he didn't find me scummy.

How is this not the scummiest thing ever? A few days before deadline, a serious threat, and trying to play it off on a senseless idea about avatars.

Meh. I can understand why you'd think that was scummy. I'd be inclined to put it up to Albert's twisted sense of humor and his willing to take all kinds of crazy risks when town to get reactions. He normally will jump on bandwagons just to see what happens as town. I'd suspect he'd tend to be a little more careful as scum, but I'm not sure I have a good idea of what his scum meta is.

Anyway, I'm not especially interested in doing a detailed defense of Albert here. He doesn't have much of a wagon on him, and he can take care of himself. I was just responding to Zindy's post with my own thoughts.

However, given the fact that town has a tendency to look specifically at bandwagons, doesn't it make just as much sense that scum would try to avoid being a part of that?

Sure, that can be true. So who do you think is scum who was avoiding bandwagons? I assume you're not talking about Albert here, since he was pretty bandwagon happy, often for fairly weak to nonexistent reasons.

[Yosarian2]

It troubles me because it makes me wonder if Kison is actually your main suspect. There could be six people you find scummier elsewhere and you'd be ignoring them.

(shrug) Not really. I still think my day 1 arguments against ML are valid, but I've cooled a little on that one. I didn't really have any other strong suspects, so i decided to take a closer look at the wagon on the townie we lynched yesterday.

And I think Agar is likely town; the hardcore meta defense of Vez based on previous play with him is something I'd expect to see from a townie. His vote for Surye was a part of that over the top defense of Vez, and I don't have a problem with it.

AGar voted Surye not as part of the defense of Vez. He was voting Furc at the time, so he just switched from wagon to wagon.

Not quite. Agar voted Surye in his post #8, primarally because he didn't like the way Surye was attacking Vez.

Lololololololol.

I'm not refusing to acknowledge the possibility. I'm saying it's highly unlikely, and I'm more apt to pursue other avenues today. Some people go into games with players they won't lynch D1 without a massive event happening, for one reason or another. For some it's Glork, for others it's Fate. For me this game, it's Vezok. One of you would have to provide something that can't happen at this point (a la, a night action) for me to consider his lynch today, not with so many people going "Ooh, easy wagon!" There are a million and one better candidates than Vezok right now. Like Surye or ABR.

VOTE: Surye

Both of them are making very concentrated pushes on Vezok for the flimsiest of reasoning, and are ignoring pretty much everything else going on in the game. Oh wait, ABR took the time to attack someone attacking him for his bogus "win con" attack on Vezok.

I do call that part of his defense on Vez; he was sure Vez was town, and was attacking people for attacking Vez. That was why he votes Surye in the first place.

Later, he did move his vote to Furcolow, in response to Furcolow voting Vez.

I'd rather

vote: Vezokpiraka

d1 vanilla townie claim
- hurts % of power roles not being hit
- if he's town, he will not scumhunt or lynch correctly

*smack*

No!

unvote
Vote Furc

^ This.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Furcolow

Furc needs to die.

He then later moved back to the Suyve wagon close to deadline. My impression is that he would have been happy with either a furcolow lynch or a suyve lynch, both because he didn't like the way they voted Vez.

All in all, Agar looks to me like a person who has one townie read he's absolutely positive of, who then bases everything else on that one read. It's not unusual for a pro-town person to do that. To be fair, that's also a kind of behavior a scum can fake, but all in all, Agar looks townish to me.

[

I don't really agree with you about Albert. The very aggressive "lynch vanilla claimers, lynch self voters, lynch people who make horrible anti-town plays, I don't even care what alignment they are they just have to die" stuff he was doing seems like something more likely to come from a pissed off townie then from a scum who was worried about long term survival.

That's not even the main point of the case. The problem wasn't that he went "lynch vanilla claimers", it's that he was okay with Vezok after he claimed vanilla town until the crappy wincon thing came up, then retroactively changed his argument for lynching Vezok twice and then proceeded to hop on every crappy wagon we got, for even crappier reasons.

What I find especially amusing, or sad, or hypocritical, or whatever way you put it, is that it's apparently totally okay for Albert to do completely idiotic anti-town crap because of his meta, but you were very eager to run Vezok up for it, with half the town showing you that his meta was to do stupid crap.

I actually don't think Albert's aggressive playstyle is anti-town; it was when he first started playing, but he's actually toned it down a great deal to a point where it's often more helpful then harmful. You wouldn't want to have many people in a game playing like that, but he can often shake some scum loose.

But, don't worry; if Albert had started out this game with a vanilla claim, I would have voted him as well.

Seriously; if, like you're suggesting, Albert had been scum who was actually trying to mislynch ML, why would he done it like that? All he would have had to say was "I'm voting ML because I agree with Yosarian2" and people would have been fine with that.

Let me just answer this question as well because I agree with Lainy: MBL gives me the creeps. Read him. He mostly just asks stuff and gives some small inputs, but he avoids giving any actual opinion on both the Vezok and the Furcy wagons. He also nicely avoids the Surye wagon and everything related to it.

MMm. That's an interesting point; be interested to hear MBL's response to that.

[Yosarian2]

Because, apparently, it's better to vote someone for having a duplicate avatar than to use any arguments, because most of the town is just plain ignoring it.

Meh. It was a quick vote to get reactions, and he pulled it off not long afterwards. If he had actually intended it as a serious vote that he was at all considering riding all the way to a lynch, he would have given a real reason; you don't get away with actually lynching someone with a vote like that, and he knows it.

I'm pretty sure he was never intending to allow his vote to help lynch ML, at least not unless she gave him a better reason to do so later. If he had, he would have gone about it differently.

[Yosarian2]

^scum

Heh. Ok, CES is scum too. Damn, you're usually harder to read then this, CES.

[Yosarian2]

#1057 is just BSing about ABR's motives. Dude's an inscrutable fool.

ABR? Neah, he's not that hard to read, at least when he's playing like this.

Someone jumps onto a medium-sized bandwagon with a completely nonsense reason, and then gets off not long afterwords, the motives are pretty damn obvious. If you're trying to lynch someone, that's not how you go about it.

You should have been able to see that for yourself, you do reaction getting-bandwagony-votes yourself all the time. Zindy doesn't really play like that, so I'm not surprised by his reaction to ABR, but I am surprised by yours.

[Yosarian2]

Ugh. Still trying to fully wrap my head around this game.. Playerlist is just too damn full of really good and/or verbose players. A lot to digest.

Coincidentally, I'm heart-ing Cognito Ergo Sum so much right now. So sublimely succinct.

Because enough people have chimed in, I got a Cult Recruiter result on Kison. So yeah...

Awesome. Any of you fuckers want to claim having sent this in?

I'm not hearing a denial...

ugh, fine. You're off the suspicious list for now. Although I still really dislike the way you're staying away from hot topics and focusing on small cases that have slim chance of gaining momentum.

Wait...you're talking Kison off the suspect list *BECAUSE* of the cult recruiter thing?

It probably means nothing, but how does it make Kison *LESS* suspicious? Even if it's a scum messanger, it's completly a WIFOM thing about how they would try to use it to mess with us. Something as overkill-silly as "cult recruiter" could very well be a "Look, I'm trying to frame person X, he MUST be town!" thing to clear one of their own. Or not. It basically doesn't mean anything either way.

[Yosarian2]

Kison is still basically actively lurking. He had one post with some content and a vote 3 days ago, but that's really all he's done for all of day 2.

[Yosarian2]

Kison is still basically actively lurking. He had one post with some content and a vote 3 days ago, but that's really all he's done for all of day 2.

Hi. Active lurker checking right in.

What do you think about Primate?

I want to hear more from him, he hasn't said much today, but his day 1 posting generally gives me a decent vibe. He's a hard guy to read, in general, and he has a bad habit of lurking for periods no matter what his alignment is, but I don't see anything especally scummy about his posts.

What do you think about, like, everyone or anyone else other then Primate?

[Yosarian2]

#142: Why do you always say “Better than random lynch” or “Better of a random lynch”

Well, on day 1, you usually start with a random vote, then you move your vote to someone else when you think they're a better then random lynch for whatever reason. A random lynch is better then a no-lynch, and at an absolute minimum, you want to find a bandwagon that's better then random for day 1, and then hopefully improve on your reads from there.

#182: How do you suggest people avoid debates that can become counter-productive? Meaning, how can we prevent from people taking sides that doesn’t help with basing alignment?

I was just saying that just because someone disagrees with you on a game stratagy or tactics issue, you shouldn't assume that they're scum because of it. You can usually tell what someone's motives are based on how they argue or what their thought process is, and that's a better indicator of alingmnet then just "do they agree with me or not"

#342: Yeah I don’t mind that, actually. (The aggroing) How has your read progressed with him, pairing with his in-game actions and not just his meta?

Most of his in-game actions so far feel to me like IS is honestly trying to find and lynch scum, so I'm leaning towards him being pro-town.

#355: You mean pre-maturely? I can agree with that, but I wouldn’t agree with claiming something else that they are not. Sorry it’s just I always see people saying town shouldn’t claim vanilla, but I guess they omit the obv that they shouldn’t claim a pr because it’s anti-town.

I clarified this later. People who are vanilla town should never lie, but they shouldn't claim either. Refusing to claim is actually a more pro-town option then claiming for a vanilla townie in most situations.

[Yosarian2]

RC is looking pretty terrible right now.

P.S. RC is my friend, he is just fucking terrible as town and good at mafia

In my experence with him, the opposite is true. He's much stronger as town then as scum.

I also hate that he's bascially done nothing this game but vote a townie for no reason

I want to hear what Battousai has to say about the game first, but if I don't hear something useful from the slot soon, I will be voting them.

[Yosarian2]

If y'all were paying attention, you'd know that I was hydra'ing with Battousai, and our account hasn't been activated yet.

That doesn't actually justify why you did nothing day 1, voted for a townie who got lynched without giving any reason, and then did nothing on day 2.

[Yosarian2]

Not liking Yossy's defense of Albert in my earlier discussion with him. Reeked of making excuses for him. Undecided if it's a townie with a heavy town-read on someone or just defending a buddy or even a scummy townie for the brownie points.

:eyebrow:

If you don't agree with my logic, you could say so. It's really disturbing you apparently can't disagree with my logic, or else I'm sure you would have, but you want to attack for making the point anyway.

You were attacking him with weak arguments for an action that has fairly obvious pro-town motives. And when I point that out, all you can say is I'm "making excuses for him"?

[Yosarian2]

Uh....I appriciate the sentament, albert, but deadline's not for another 8 days, right?

[Yosarian2]

I really wish ABR hadn't claimed. He was already obv town and wasn't going to be lynched today, all this does is get him nightkilled. Oh well, he's basically confirmed town now unless someone counterclaims him on the Vez kill. There's zero chance that a SK or a mafia kill a claimed vanilla townie lynchbait like that.

ABR being confirmed town makes both Toonfighter look even worse right now. I really hate the no-logic Albert vote Toonfighter has had since last week. And now all RC has done is make a no-reason vote for a townie on day 1, and terrible

Scumlist:
RC
Toonfighter
Kison (Still wish this guy would get a little more attention. I hate the way everyone is just letting him basically fly under the radar this game.)

unvote

Vote:Reaper Charlie

[Yosarian2]

Yosarian, what do you think of Porochaz, MBL, and Primate?

(shrug) None of them look especially suspicious to me at the moment.

[Yosarian2]

But they are being lazy and policy lynching RC as far as I can tell.

Albert, read RC's posts since the hydra thing started. Read Battousai's posts.

If they were town, I would expect them to be doing better then this. Last time I played a game with RC, he was one of the stronger pro-town players in the game (in fact, I suggested we recruit him into my cult for that reason, heh), and we both know what a strong player Battousai is when he's town.

This isn't a policy lynch. This is a "If they were town, they would probably be making better posts then this" lynch.

[Yosarian2]

You don't claim Neo as SK when you don't have to claim.

Also, if you're a SK, you don't shoot the VI who claimed vanilla and then almost got lynched on day 1. You would rather shoot pretty much anyone else, town OR scum.

[Yosarian2]

Albert: Eh, I still think IS is probably town. He looked soooo town day 1. Stuff like this line just screams town to me :

This Vezo and Furc hate is getting annoying. I'm not supporting their lynch now simply out of principle (or at least until in convinced that they are scum).

[Yosarian2]

Between Yosarian and Internet Stranger, who do you guys want me to vig?

Oh, lord. Seriously? What the hell is wrong with you?

[Yosarian2]

Scum are Yosarian and Internet Stranger, I don't know who else. Look at the wagons they been on. Their posts. IS's certainty about everything, like Surye being scum or Deathnote being town. Yosarian's defense of IS. The interactions.

They are scum.

God damnit all to hell. Can't I get through one fucking game without being either mislynched as town or vigged by some bloody idiot?

So, what; I disagree with your shitty read on IS, and now you're going to kill me too? What the hell is wrong with you?

You are obviously town, I've been saying so all game. IS is obviously town. And no one other then scummy mc scummerson CES has accused me of being scum at all, because I'm so goddamned obvtown this game. You had like 4 good scum reads a few pages ago, people who are actually likely to be scum for reasonable reasons, and now you're going to forget it all for a stupid crusade of yours.

The ONE GAME I though we were actually going to win as town, and you're going to fuck it up with your ego, and there's nothing I can bloody do about it. Wonderful.

There is no reason for people to be voting on side wagons at this point. Lynch the CharlieScumTroll and let's move into the night phase so that Albert and his scumbuddies can kill me.

Stop being silly. Albert has to be town here, for any number of reasons. I wish he wasn't, because if he was scum, then his bad play wouldn't be nearly as much of a threat to the town.

[Yosarian2]

Yos, thoughts on this please? Also give me a read on ABR.

He's town, obviously. And he's now suffering a combination of the typical "being a vig lowers your IQ by 20 points" and the "being a confirmed town lowers your IQ by 40 points" syndromes. He's been treating me as town all game, and now because he's on a crusade and I think he's wrong, he's calling me scum.

It wouldn't be so bad if he were saying something like "Yos looks linked to IS because he defended him, so if IS flips scum then Yos is suspicious". That would be a weak argument, but at least I could understand it. But, no, he's talking about vigging me for defending IS *BEFORE* we find out IS's alignment. It's so frustrating, especially since Albert is a smart guy who actually can play well when he doesn't go on one of his damned ego trips.

[Yosarian2]

LOL! Bullying people into voting for me before I can post my analysis!

If you were town, you would care that I have some legit reads to share.

Dude, you've been in the game since may 16th. You've posted 46 times.

If you haven't posted any "legit reads" yet, and you haven't, then it looks to me like you're probably never going to. I'm not holding my breath at this point.

[Yosarian2]

God damnit all to hell. Can't I get through one fucking game without being either mislynched as town or vigged by some bloody idiot?

You made it through Hydras just fine.

Yes, thank you for reminding me that the one game where I didn't get mislynched by idiots or vigged by a paranoid, I instead incorrectly defended you when you were scum and by doing so let your scumteam win.

Don't think I have forgotten that game, CES.

[Yosarian2]

I love the irony in the air here.

What, the part about how Albert was going to vig Zindy-scum but now he's going to vig obv-town people instead? You could call that ironic, I guess.

[Yosarian2]

You consider yourself obvtown? lol

I thought you were still pretending you haven't read the thread yet, so as to avoid having to comment on anything, RC?

If you haven't read the thread, then you don't get to decide who's obvtown and who isn't. If you have, then I'd love to hear your thoughts on, well, pretty much anything.

[Yosarian2]

Of course, the RC claim that he "hasn't read the thread" is becoming an increasingly transparent excuse at this point. He's been here, and has been posting and responding, for nearly half the game at this point. Even if he really never went back and read day 1 (which would itself be scummy, but never mind that), he should still be able to fake some kind of scum reads at this point.

[Yosarian2]

Battousai: All that is fine, but can you talk more about the game? You've made one content-full post so far, a semi-decent attack against TF, but other then that, you haven't really done more then RC has. Can you talk more about your suspicions and such?

[Yosarian2]

Nah, only Alanis Morissette could see that as ironic. No, the true irony is that after all the bad reasoning I called ABR out for, with you defending for him, now you're getting the same treatment and you're not liking it one bit.

(shrug)

First ABR said he was going to vig you. I didn't defend you, because I think there's a reasonable chance you're scum; you have to be pretty sure someone is town to take the risk of defending him, and I don't have that kind of confidence about you at this point. I don't actually think that Albert's attacks against you were bad reasoning at all.

Then ABR said he was going to vig IS, and I don't at all get why. I did defend IS, because I'm convinced IS is town based on his behavior.

Then Albert started talking about vigging me, apparently because he didn't like that I disagreed with him about IS or some BS like that, so I flipped out and called him an idiot.

I'm not sure what's ironic about any of that.

What I dislike about Yossy's play is his early game single-mindedness on Vezok. He blows up the VT thing to epic proportions, then drops it like a brick and doesn't really get back to it on any later occasion (despite the fact that we had, I think, four claimed vanillas already, between Vezok, Surye, Furc and Reaper).

(shrug)The fact that RC claimed vanilla is certainly yet another reason he should be lynched, albiet a much less important part then his behavior and posting.

Also, during the period when I was voting Vezok for the vanilla claim, really not much else had happened at all. Vez was the best lynch based on what we knew at the time, which wasn't much.

As I mentioned before, I felt his shift onto Medicated Lain was a peculiar one. After agreeing with SensFan on the TF case, which was fairly expansive, he winds up voting Lain over one post.

"Over one post"? That's not at all true. That wasn't even the first time that I attacked Lain this game.

Day 2 starts with this post, which both Cessy and I criticised him for:

Just for the sake of argument,

I'm going to assume there were at least some scum actively pushing this wagon

, from a reasonably early point.

It looks more malicious, though, if you go back and read his previous thoughts on Surye:

Yos: could you please tell me what you think of Surye, AGar, Albert and Brian?

[snip]

I'm kind of null on Surye at the moment.

The wagon against him feels town driven

, but I'm not really convinced by it. He could go either way.

Apparently, he's changed his mind from that earlier point.

?

When I said the wagon is "town driven", I was saying that the main push on the wagon (which, at the time, was mostly being made by IS) was probably coming from someone pro-town. I still think IS is pro-town. That being said, it's incredibly rare for a townie to get lynched without some scum supporting the wagon; not necessarily the people who start the wagon, but they likely have thrown their support behind it at some point (basically the same logic as in the ancient Jeep "third vote on the wagon is scum" tell.)

And, yes, of course Suyve flipping town affected how I thought about the wagon.

But again, I'm tried of arguing irrelevant theory points with you. What's important here is my actual analysis of people's play, especially Kison's play, CES's play, and RC's play (and, to a lesser extent, your play); their participation in a mislynch are a part of the reason they look scummy, but only a small part.

Picking this out because I didn't respond to it. I disagree with your logic. You say he's fishing for reactions, but you also agree that it's not illogical to think his vote on Lainy was scummy. Making that vote and then finding the people that call you out on it suspicious does not make sense. If I made the same votes as he had to fish for reactions, I would find the people who joined me on the wagons far scummier than the people who'd call me out on it. As far as making excuses goes, I'm saying that because Albert never bothered to defend himself. The "fishing for reactions" thing is something you put on him as an outsider. I never put a label of "scummy" or "towny" on it.

(shrug) "Fishing for reactions" isn't nearly as simple as "whoever votes for me is scum"; it's usually more like "let's see who flips out when I vote ML, and then look back at that reactions once we know ML's alignment."

In any case, I stand by my attack on you there. Albert's actions seemed obviously to be pro-town motivated actions, there is zero reason for a scum to act like that at all. It's quite obvious he wasn't actually trying to lynch ML there. I don't care if you like Albert's play or not, I was just pointing out that it didn't make any sense as scum play. You then ignored all that reasoning completly, never really responding to it, and just called me scummy for defending him. That makes it look to me like you were just trying to mislynch Albert, and separate Albert from his defenders, and didn't actually want to get into a detailed discussion about his behavior.

Overall feeling: there's a bunch of stuff really off about Yossy. I especially dislike the interaction with TF. TF's a pretty major suspect for Yossy during Day 1 and 2, and then he pretty much votes RC out of nowhere (argument would be weakened if TF is Town, which obvobv we don't know right now).

(shrug) I was giving RC a reasonable amount of time to catch up and post something useful; he didn't take advantage of it. All in all, he's really likely to be scum.

As for TF, he's scummy, and I'm perfectly willing to lynch him based on his behavior. I've said so any number of times, and I dislike that you seem to be attacking me for having multiple suspects and not being able to vote for all of them at once.

[Yosarian2]

I have a guilty/track/etc on DeathNote.

...

Seriously?

I mean, ok, I'm inclined to just believe you and go along with this, but i find it kind of bizzare that you're claiming like this, especally after all that wierd "amnesiac cop told me Kison is a CR" stuff early in the day.

[Yosarian2]

Llama needs to fullclaim right now. Right. Now. He's already claimed enough to make himself a scum target if he's telling the truth, more information doesn't actually help

Llama: let me just tell you this. If you're serious about this, I'll go along with it. But if doing one of those horribly idiotic "I'm a townie who's faking a guilty because I really want to lynch this guy" gambits that I've seen utter morons do a few times, just tell us now and drop this. Because every bloody time I've seen someone do that, it's gone horribly wrong, and if we actually lynch DeathNote and he flips town, we will lynch you tomorrow, period. At that point, there will be no mercy. So if you're lying, this is your absolute last chance to come clean; if you're lying town, then if you don't confess right now, you are going to seriously fuck up the town and probably lose this entire game for us, and the loss will be 100% your fault. There's no time to screw around, either, we're too close to the deadline.

So, again, this is the last time I'm going to ask you. Fullclaim, right now, no excuses, and tell us the whole truth. If this was a gambit, an attempt to get reactions or push a lynch through or something, tell us right now and we'll give you a break; lie to us, and you die, period, no excuses.

[Yosarian2]

4 days before deadline is really not the best time to screw around like this and completely derail the town, Llama.

[Yosarian2]

fos:Yos

Seriously folk, look at post #1381, and everything in the first 5-10 pages of the day, and tell me that's not scummy. Summary:
now : Vez and Furc hating is annoying = not scummy
Yet he was pretty interested in the Vez vote...
I don't like this.

...

what?

I don't even know what you're trying to say here at all.

But, ok. "Post 1381 and everything in the first 5-10 pages of the day is not scummy". There, I told you.

So Llama claims not really an investigative role, but 100% says he got back a guilty on Deathnote? I don't really understand. I am willing to switch with more details. Right now, you're not making any sense to me.

Llama already admitted that his "guilty on Deathnote" was just a stupid gambit, just something he made up to get reactions. Are you reading the thread?

side note: seriously Yos, did you listen to me at all?

In any case, I stand by my attack on you there. Albert's actions seemed obviously to be pro-town motivated actions, there is zero reason for a scum to act like that at all. It's quite obvious he wasn't actually trying to lynch ML there. I don't care if you like Albert's play or not, I was just pointing out that it didn't make any sense as scum play. You then ignored all that reasoning completly, never really responding to it, and just called me scummy for defending him. That makes it look to me like you were just trying to mislynch Albert, and separate Albert from his defenders, and didn't actually want to get into a detailed discussion about his behavior.

It certainly makes perfect sense if one of the two main people with bandwagons against them is a scum partner.

No, it doesn't. Not at all.

If you're trying to get a townie lynched to take pressure of their scum partner, you do so by making an argument against them, putting a vote on them you can justify later, trying to actually convince other people to join you, and basically covering your ass so when the person you're trying to mislynch flips town you have good excuses for why you voted them.

You don't make an obviously non-serious vote for no reason on a medium sized bandwagon, leave it on for a while, get some reactions, and then take it off again, if you are a scum who's seriously trying to mislynch a townie or trying to change the momentum of the game. That makes absolutely zero sense. You and Zinderas's whole "Albert was scum who was trying to get ML mislynched with that vote" theory made no sense at all, and you guys both kept ignoring that no matter how many times I pointed it out.

Seriously, did you listen to me at all?

[Yosarian2]

[quote="Ranmaru"
Yos seemed to be fine with possibly going with Llama's plan, without questioning it first. [/quote]

...

what?

I didn't vote for Death Note, i didn't go "along with his plan", and I was pretty much the only one to really question him on it. If he was seriously going to stick to the cop claim, we were going to have to lynch Death Note, but I wanted to make damn sure first that he wasn't trying to screw with us; and I was right, he was.

What are you talking about?

I don't see much townieness from Yos, but neither do I see scumminess. He's null to me. He hasn't really commented much on others I think.

...

Again, what?

People I've recently commented on:
Kison
CES
ML
Zinderas
IS
Albert
AGAR
HEZ
Furc

[Yosarian2]

I have a guilty/track/etc on DeathNote.

...

Seriously?

I mean, ok, I'm inclined to just believe you and go along with this, but i find it kind of bizzare that you're claiming like this, especally after all that wierd "amnesiac cop told me Kison is a CR" stuff early in the day.

Of course, after other's responses, you then made sure to "MAKE SURE" llama is not doing stupid shit. But I'm telling you my thoughts from when I saw this post.

So...you did notice that there was no vote for deathnote in that post, and that I called the claim "bizarre" and pointed out problems with it, right?

[Yosarian2]

@yos: You weren't really against the idea of the vez wagon at first, yet you were calling IS town-like for being against the vez and furc wagons, what's up with that? I dislike contradictions.

What does that have to do with anything? Do you really think that, just because I'm town, that everyone who agrees with me is town and everyone who disagrees with me is scum? That's not how it works. You have to look at motive. Beyond that, you have to try to get into the head of the person making the post.

Think about it. Can you see yourself, as a pro-town person, making that post based just on frustration towards both of those wagons? It wasn't even that he had a strong pro-town read on Furc, he said himself that Furc could be scum, but he was just sick and tired of the frankly excessive amount of hatred being leveled at Furc especally, which seemed really out of proportion to the facts.

Use your mind. Use your guts. Read the posts, and try to get a feel for if you would think like that as scum, or if you would think like that as town, or both. Weather he agreed with me or not isn't what's important, what's important is if what his alignment is, and what his mindest was when he was making those posts.

[Yosarian2]

Yosarian2 - I think Yos's reactions to the accusations are much stronger than the accusations being raised against him. It smells slightly defensive.

The whole "being defensive is a scum tell" thing is, and has always been, bogus. Everyone should always defend themselves in detail against any reasonable accusation (and against most unreasonable ones as wll).

If you're town, and someone's calling you scum, either their facts are wrong, their logic is wrong, they're jumping to conclusions incorrectly, or at the very least their argument is inconclusive. One of those things must be true, and whenever someone accuses you, it's your job to say why they're wrong.

I tend to consider failure to defend yourself properly a scumtell, and defending yourself to be null at worst.

I first figured out that "being defensive is a scumtell" thing was crap during my first few games as scum; I was amazed how easy it was for a scum to get a mislynch using it. Step 1, attack someone. Step 2, when they defend themselves, call them defensive. Never failed.

...

Anyway, as for RC's analysis post; nothing in it makes me think he's town. In his past post, he gave me "town points" for demonstrating that my meta is always to lynch claimed vanillas, and yet now he's giving me scum points just for fixing a mod error and putting my vote back on Vez where it should have been all along? That doesn't make sense; either he understands my arguments against Vez were town motivated and consistent with my previous town behavior, or he dosn't, he can't have it both ways. Nothing in his analysis really makes me think that he's anything other then a scum who realized "Ok, I have to actually pretend to scumhunt now or I'm going to get lynched."

[Yosarian2]

Edit by way of post: Just to be clear, the last paragraph of that post was a reference to post 1644, not the post RC made while I was typing.

[Yosarian2]

@Yos

, why did you ignore ToonFighter from May 9th to June 5th? He appeared to be your #2 suspect back then, and he's your #2 suspect now.

Toonfighter had kind of drifted off my radar for a while, but ToonFighter jumped way up on my scumlist once Albert became pretty much confirmed town. After Albert's claim on June 4th made him pretty much confirmed town, I went back to take a look at who had attacked him for bad reasons. (Once you have a reasonably solid fact like that, you should do a new analysis based on it.) Of all the people who had voted Albert, Toonfighter's attacks looked the scummiest, and that moved him way up my list. It all seemed to be appeals to emotion, weak excuses to join a wagon, followed by a week of keeping his vote on Albert without any really logical reason.

This was the extent of Toonfigher's attacks on Albert:

But one player whose game I am not appreciating is ABR. Look how active, defensive and aggressive he turned yesterday after he had a couple of votes on him. That seems like some scum cracking under pressure. He didn't do much so far in this game, as well, and had useless votes throughout D1. He recently voted IS without any real justification, and it seems to me that HIS defence of Surye yesterday was for town points, not other players defence of Vez.

Just a really bad case. He attacked him for being "active, defensive, aggressive once he had a few votes on him" (of course, he was active and aggressive before he had votes on him, and of course being active and aggressive are generally more towntells then anything else), and he attacks Albert for defending a townie from a lynchwagon, also generally more a towntell then anything else. Of the people who voted for Albert, Toon Fighter's reasons were the worst and the scummiest.

It was followed by:

Oh, I forgot,

vote: ABR

Three days later, he said this:

Where is ABR and why isn't he dead already?

And then toonfighter kept his vote on Albert for no reason until he claimed.

So, yeah, Toonfighter is currently pretty high on my scumlist.

[Yosarian2]

Yosarian –

Scum

. I see a little more talk about theory and less scumhunting. I feel this is the most scumhunting he has done:

I really wish ABR hadn't claimed. He was already obv town and wasn't going to be lynched today, all this does is get him nightkilled. Oh well, he's basically confirmed town now unless someone counterclaims him on the Vez kill. There's zero chance that a SK or a mafia kill a claimed vanilla townie lynchbait like that.

ABR being confirmed town makes both Toonfighter look even worse right now. I really hate the no-logic Albert vote Toonfighter has had since last week. And now all RC has done is make a no-reason vote for a townie on day 1, and terrible

Scumlist:
RC
Toonfighter
Kison (Still wish this guy would get a little more attention. I hate the way everyone is just letting him basically fly under the radar this game.)

unvote

Vote:Reaper Charlie

...

What the hell game are you reading?

Posts in ISO where I've done agressive scumhunting, and attacked/questioned/put pressure on/tried to convine people to vote people who I think are likely scum, today alone:

53
57
58
59
60
65
67
68
71
72
75
77
83
85
86
87
88
97
99

In those posts, I've attacked, questioned, poked at, or made cases against:

Kison
CES
Zinderas
Reaper Charlie
Toonfighter

There might be a couple of people in the game who have done more scumhunting today then I have, but there aren't many. Feel free to disagree with my cases or whatever, but pretending I haven't made any is just silly.

[Yosarian2]

@Yos, yeah, but why did ToonFighter drift off your radar? Did he do something you considered townish?

(shrug) Not really. Mostly I just changed my focus at the start of day 2 to trying to find scum on the Surye mislynch, because at the time the only solid facts we had were that Surye was town and Vez was town. TF spent most of day 1 pushing the Furc wagon, and I can't really analyze that too much until I know Furc's alignment.

That being said, no, there really aren't any day 1 TF posts that scream town to me. All in all, I'm quite willing to lynch TF today.

[Yosarian2]

Yos - Fair enough. Now, can you give me one line reasons as to why you believe each person is scum?

One line? Heh, probably not, but I'll make them short.

RC- Scummy resistance to actually play the game for as long as he could possibly get away with it. Very weak reads all around, inconsistant stories on activity. Even now, his analysis posts don't really give me a good idea of who he suspects or why, it's just random facts; that would be fine if it was a month ago.

Some people are blaming some of that for RC's meta, but Battousai's posts from that slot are almost as bad, and I for a fact that he's a quite skilled town player.

Toonfighter- Very bad and scummy attack on confirmed town Albert, that he did right after other people had voted Albert. Very terrible logic on this vote. Poor quality play overall, contradictory play about furc on day 1 (as I mentioned, he made a case defending Furc for lurking and then voted him for lurking in the exact same post).

CES- His vote on town Suyve day 1 was really bad. The timing was bad, and I still have no idea why he decided to suddenly drop the Furc wagon and leap over to the Suyve wagon. It's even odder the way he attacked me for NOT voting Furc for the vanilla claim at the same time he was unvoting Furc; consistanty is a lame argument, especally if his read that Furc was town was similar to mine (and if it wasn't, why did he unvote Furc?). CES is generally really hard to read, but when he's town I usually agree with his votes when he's making them, even if he dosn't explain them I can see why he's doing it based on what's going on at the time. This game, I generally can't, and when he does explain himself the logic feels off.

Kison- Also had a bad vote on Suyve day 1. Hardcore active lurker for most of the game; other then his vote on Suyve, did almost nothing day 1. To be fair, he has gotten a little more active since I called him out for active lurking, and I kind of like his toonfighter vote (if you look at his posts in ISO, it would be post #23). So he's dropped down a little on my person scumlist, and I haven't attacked him for a while. Still not convinced he's town, though, and he still needs to post more content to catch up .

Zinderas- Of the 5 people on my scumlist, he's the one I'm least confident about. Dislike his Suyve vote, although at least he provided a little more reasoning then Kison or CES did. Dislike his attack on Albert today. I dislike more the way that when I pointed out the flaws in the logic of his attack on Albert, he didn't really respond to my point, only attacked me for defending Albert; when I see someone do that, my first thought is "he's trying to force through a mislynch by trying to scare off the defenders". He also seemed to spend more time on day 1 talking about how we should be scumhunting then he did actually scumhunting.

All in all, I COULD see Zindy playing this way as town; he hasn't made any huge scumtells, and he does normally have kind of a cautious playstyle that's intolerant of "sloppy" play. That being said, I don't have a good feel about him overall.

I only agree with your RC scum read. Also, why do you selectively quote me?

meh. The only line I didn't quote was your line about how I was "mostly responding to people and talking about mafia theory", and I think I just explained to someone else that responding to attacks is good.

Also, something about the idea of responding to an attack that I "spend too much time responding to posts and too much time talking about mafia theory" by responding to your post using mafia theory to show that responding to posts and using mafia theory is pro-town seemed pointless and counterproductive.

Meta jokes aside, I think it's a good idea to respond to specific, concrete points against you that seem to be factually incorrect, so I did. I also think it's a usually a good idea to try to respond to posts addressed at you, so I do that too. I also do plenty of independent scumhunting as well, though; it's not like doing one prevents you from doing the other.

[Yosarian2]

I first figured out that "being defensive is a scumtell" thing was crap during my first few games as scum

My objection is not with defending yourself, but the degree that you do. Case in point, I put you as the 7th scummiest player on my list (it was ranked), with the following:

Yosarian2 - I think Yos's reactions to the accusations are much stronger than the accusations being raised against him. It smells slightly defensive.

The extent you go to defend yourself:

The whole "being defensive is a scum tell" thing is, and has always been, bogus. Everyone should always defend themselves in detail against any reasonable accusation (and against most unreasonable ones as wll).

If you're town, and someone's calling you scum, either their facts are wrong, their logic is wrong, they're jumping to conclusions incorrectly, or at the very least their argument is inconclusive. One of those things must be true, and whenever someone accuses you, it's your job to say why they're wrong.

I tend to consider failure to defend yourself properly a scumtell, and defending yourself to be null at worst.

I first figured out that "being defensive is a scumtell" thing was crap during my first few games as scum; I was amazed how easy it was for a scum to get a mislynch using it. Step 1, attack someone. Step 2, when they defend themselves, call them defensive. Never failed.

You can find similar trends in your other posts.

Heh. Yes, I realize the irony of logically thoroughly defending myself against an attack that I'm too defensive, but the point is that there is no such thing as "no defensive" at all. It's a myth. Any attack should always be fully responded to, period.

I hope we can agree that that level of defensiveness is scummy. So at some point, the defensiveness is a tell.

Why?

Defensivness isn't scummy, period. If you defend yourself against a mild attack with a mile long post, then that might be an overreaction, but it isn't at all scummy; there's no reason to think scum is more likely to do that then town.

Now, if you're defending yourself without scumhunting, that can be scummy, but there the tell is the lack of scumhunting, not defending yourself. If you're defending yourself in detail, it pretty much just means you're playing the game properly; nobody wants to be lynched, and if you let even minor incorrect arguments against you stand without responding to them, it's very likely to come back and bite you on the ass later in the game.

Defending yourself isn't, but the degree to which you do is analyzable information.

Well, anything is "analyzable", but it certainly has no relation to alignment.

[Yosarian2]

Defensivness isn't scummy, period. If you defend yourself against a mild attack with a mile long post, then that might be an overreaction, but it isn't at all scummy; there's no reason to think scum is more likely to do that then town.

Agree to disagree, I suppose. In my eyes, I see it as:

*The mafia's motivation is to survive as long as possible (a defensive motivation)
*The town's motivation is to find the scum before their time runs out (an offensive motivation).

I understand everyone has self-preservation (d) in mind, which also leads them to wanting to get others lynched rather than themselves (o), but I can't agree that there's absolutely no correlation between alignment and defensiveness.

It's a matter of priorities.

Town's first priority is to find and lynch scum, town's second priority is to not get mislynched. Scum's priority is to not get lynched.

So if the only thing someone is doing is trying to not get lynched, that's a scum tell. But if someone is both defending themselves and also, independent of that and separately, scumhunting, that's pro-town behavior.

The only downside is that that means that when you're under attack as town, you basically have to post twice as much as you normally would, so that your scumhunting dosn't suffer as you defend yourself.

[Yosarian2]

His vote on town Suyve day 1 was really bad. The timing was bad, and I still have no idea why he decided to suddenly drop the Furc wagon and leap over to the Suyve wagon. It's even odder the way he attacked me for NOT voting Furc for the vanilla claim at the same time he was unvoting Furc; consistanty is a lame argument, especally if his read that Furc was town was similar to mine (and if it wasn't, why did he unvote Furc?).

That we both had town reads on him, means nothing - you held that read long before it was even remotely justifiable and I've seen no indication that you saw what I saw.

You're still attacking me for NOT voting for someone you think is town. No matter how I came to the conclusion that I didn't want to vote for that guy, that doesn't make sense. You're making it sound like there is ONE AND ONLY ONE possible way that anyone could have gotten a mild town-read on Furc day 1, and that's just silly; there's as many different ways to read someone as there are mafia players.

If Furc is in fact town, then the most likely explanation for your actions is that you're scum who wanted to mislynch Suyve, but also wanted to keep the Furc wagon alive so you could mislynch him later, so you moved to the Suyve wagon while trying to pressure me onto the Furc wagon.

And no, inconsistency is not a lame argument when applied to basic meta-stances.

Consistancy is scummy. It usually means that you're more worried about making all of your arguments look like they're logically compatable with each other then you are about actually lynching the right guy.

Using "lack of consisntancy" as an excuse to attack someone for not doing something you personally don't believe in is just scummy on your part.

CES is generally really hard to read, but when he's town I usually agree with his votes when he's making them, even if he dosn't explain them I can see why he's doing it based on what's going on at the time.

That was true in Hydras too. Obvious explanation for us not synching up is that you're scum.

In Hydras, I thought you were town. After the game was over, you said that I was actually basically right about your day 1 play, that you were made a mistake and taking risks you really shouldn't have taken as scum because you were too locked into a town mindset at the time. Well, I think you decided to fix that mistake this game, so you're just scum playing as scum.

[Yosarian2]

How is "Furc claiming under pressure to a big but illogical wagon" at all similar to "Vez claiming for no reason as a stupid gambit as soon as he saw his role PM"? One is scummy, the other isn't.

[Yosarian2]

If you thought the timing of Vez' claim was scummy, you sure did a hell of a job hiding it until now.

...

This is a really horrible trap argument you're trying to make here, questioning me on this now considering in how much detail I described exactly what I thought about Vez on day 1, and you're probably scum for making it.

Your whole attempt to manipulate me into voting for Furc yesterday, while you were getting off the wagon yourself, was scummy as hell, and no amount of double talk or stupid BS about "constancy" is going to change that at this point. The way Furc claimed vanilla looked much more town-ish then the way Vez claimed vt, and the way you're trying to pretend one is the same as the other to make a BS constancy argument is also scummy.

[Yosarian2]

RC's most recent analysis post is just as bad as the previous one. He's still calling me scum for the Vez thing, which is just bad since he already admitted that it's part of my town meta to lynch vanillas. His claim that I'm scummy for agreeing with Amrun's post is also terrible, since he just agreed with it as well, and honestly the way he's doing this makes me more willing to lynch him over Toon fighter. The rest of his analysis post is basically fluff; he agrees with my case on toon fighter, but calls me scum for making it. He also repeats the argument MBL just made, while pretending it's original and completely ignoring the fact that I already answered it. Nothing here looks townie enough to make me want to unvote a claimed vanilla townie who's been intentionally and purposefully useless all game.

PPE: Lol. I'm pretty sure you're the one who's going to die "after people see your last catchup post", RC.

[Yosarian2]

Oh yes, I checked your iso carefully. Your stance on Vez is crystal clear - he was a "better than random" lynch. At no point did you suggest that there was anything there beyond the vt claim.

Claiming vanilla for no reason IS scummy, period, and I did say that on day 1. I also said that the meta defense (people gave links showing that Vez has done this before as town) made it null-ish, but it's still incredibly anti-town and I still didn't like it. I'm never completely comfortable accepting a meta defense for extremely anti-town behavior.

I said all of this on day 1. If you're trying to catch me in a contradiction, you should read my posts a little more carefully first.

Your whole attempt to manipulate me into voting for Furc yesterday, while you were getting off the wagon yourself, was scummy as hell, and no amount of double talk or stupid BS about "constancy" is going to change that at this point. The way Furc claimed vanilla looked much more town-ish then the way Vez claimed vt, and the way you're trying to pretend one is the same as the other to make a BS constancy argument is also scummy.

I did push you towards the wagon, but that was before Furc committed the town tell that made me get off; I was still fully committed to the Furcwagon at that point. I think the two vt claims were sufficiently similar for a consistency argument to apply; if you disagree with that statement, why don't you explain to me what was so town about the Furcclaim (we know you didn't think the Vezclaim was scummy, so don't start with that BS)?

People claim vanilla to pressure all the time as town. It's still anti-town, but it's so common I can't really call it a reliable scum tell.

I didn't really want to lynch Furc yesterday because his posts didn't really seem at all scummy to me. I didn't get a scum read off of him at all, and people were attacking him for stupid reasons (for example, people were attacking him for his vote on Zinderas, but that made perfect sense at the time.) If you disagree with that read, then say so. If you think that we should be lynching even people who seem pro-town if they claim vanilla, then say that. Hell, if you're accusing me of being scum with Furc, then say that. Right now, you're not making any sense at all; you're attacking me for having a town read that you agreed with for different reasons and for not votign for thar person. You've come up with a dozen excuses for it, but none of them make a bit of sense.