Stoofer's 2nd Law

Stewie · Post Post #8 (isolation #0) » Wed Jan 25, 2006 5:25 pm

I guess the stoofer equation is:

P = 1 - 1/n

Where P is the probability of a vote, and n is number of posts.

(waits for someone to make a thread with a vote on the first post to screw me over)

Stewie · Post Post #15 (isolation #1) » Sun Jan 29, 2006 5:16 pm

Turbovolver wrote:Oh, but there is. Let's bring up another of Stoofer's Laws, if I may:

In a C9 game, a townie lynch on day one will have both scum on the lynchwagon.

He brought it up in a game I was in with him, and if we believe his statistics it has like an 80% success rate (sample size: 8 or so). The reason I put it out there is to see if other people have found it to be true or untrue in their experience.

It is OK that I say this, right Mr. Stoofer? I mean it's already sort of public knowledge when you posted it up in our game. If not, sorry

Check the five-year invitational. A townie was lynched day one, yet no scum were on the wagon.

Stewie · Post Post #33 (isolation #2) » Tue Jan 31, 2006 8:22 am

Stewie wrote:I guess the stoofer equation is:

P = 1 - 1/n

Where P is the probability of a vote, and n is number of posts.

(waits for someone to make a thread with a vote on the first post to screw me over)

Ok, I suppose the following would be accurate:

P = 1 - 1/(n+1)

Stewie · Post Post #35 (isolation #3) » Tue Jan 31, 2006 9:29 am

Yeah. The point is that the first post has a chance of a vote (two threads already made to "prove me wrong" on my previous equation) and that the probability aproaches one as more posts are made. I guess you have a point about it being too likely to have a post... Let's try again:

P = 1 - 19/(n+19)

That should work. First post there's a 1/20 chance of a vote. I can make the chance on the first post as small as I want, but I'll leave it there, since it seems reasonable.

Stewie · Post Post #40 (isolation #4) » Tue Jan 31, 2006 5:00 pm

Mr Stoofer wrote:The formula for Stoofer's 2nd Law is:

P=1-k/n

Where P = probablility of a vote in the thread
n = number of posts in the thread
k = the Stoofer constant, which has yet to be determined.

k cannot be greater than one, because that would mean that the probability of a vote in the first post is negative (logically impossible).
k cannot be equal to one, because that would mean that the probability of a vote in the first post is zero (proved wrong).
Therefore, k must be a number lower than one, but considerably more than zero (or else the probability of a vote in the first post would be one, or pretty close to one). Just narrowing down your choices.