I guess the stoofer equation is:
P = 1 - 1/n
Where P is the probability of a vote, and n is number of posts.
(waits for someone to make a thread with a vote on the first post to screw me over)
Stoofer's 2nd Law
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Check the five-year invitational. A townie was lynched day one, yet no scum were on the wagon.Turbovolver wrote:Oh, but there is. Let's bring up another of Stoofer's Laws, if I may:
In a C9 game, a townie lynch on day one will have both scum on the lynchwagon.
He brought it up in a game I was in with him, and if we believe his statistics it has like an 80% success rate (sample size: 8 or so). The reason I put it out there is to see if other people have found it to be true or untrue in their experience.
It is OK that I say this, right Mr. Stoofer? I mean it's already sort of public knowledge when you posted it up in our game. If not, sorry- Stewie
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Yeah. The point is that the first post has a chance of a vote (two threads already made to "prove me wrong" on my previous equation) and that the probability aproaches one as more posts are made. I guess you have a point about it being too likely to have a post... Let's try again:
P = 1 - 19/(n+19)
That should work. First post there's a 1/20 chance of a vote. I can make the chance on the first post as small as I want, but I'll leave it there, since it seems reasonable.- Stewie
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k cannot be greater than one, because that would mean that the probability of a vote in the first post is negative (logically impossible).Mr Stoofer wrote:The formula for Stoofer's 2nd Law is:
P=1-k/n
Where P = probablility of a vote in the thread
n = number of posts in the thread
k = the Stoofer constant, which has yet to be determined.
k cannot be equal to one, because that would mean that the probability of a vote in the first post is zero (proved wrong).
Therefore, k must be a number lower than one, but considerably more than zero (or else the probability of a vote in the first post would be one, or pretty close to one). Just narrowing down your choices. - Stewie
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