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Mr Stoofer
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Post
Post #0 (isolation #0 ) » Tue Jan 24, 2006 6:57 am
Post
by Mr Stoofer » Tue Jan 24, 2006 6:57 am
states:
As a discussion in the Mafia Discussion Forum grows longer, the probability of someone voting for someone else in the thread approaches 1
.
It happened a couple of days ago in
You know you have been playing too much Mafia when...
and is getting out of hand there. It has just happened in
Mafia Tells
.
::edit:: Turbovolver has pointed out that Stoofer's 1st Law is actually something else, so I have renamed this law Stoofer's 2nd Law.
Last edited by
Mr Stoofer on Sun Jan 29, 2006 10:29 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Post
Post #3 (isolation #1 ) » Tue Jan 24, 2006 7:10 am
Post
by Mr Stoofer » Tue Jan 24, 2006 7:10 am
at Aelyn for spotting my inspiration!
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Post
Post #11 (isolation #2 ) » Wed Jan 25, 2006 10:58 pm
Post
by Mr Stoofer » Wed Jan 25, 2006 10:58 pm
warpdragon wrote: Godwin?
See Aelyn's post 2.
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Post
Post #20 (isolation #3 ) » Sun Jan 29, 2006 10:32 pm
Post
by Mr Stoofer » Sun Jan 29, 2006 10:32 pm
Turbovolver wrote: Oh, but there is. Let's bring up another of Stoofer's Laws, if I may:
In a C9 game, a townie lynch on day one will have both scum on the lynchwagon.
He brought it up in a game I was in with him, and if we believe his statistics it has like an 80% success rate (sample size: 8 or so). The reason I put it out there is to see if other people have found it to be true or untrue in their experience.
It is OK that I say this, right Mr. Stoofer? I mean it's already sort of public knowledge when you posted it up in our game. If not, sorry
Turbovolver is quite right, This ought to be
Stoofer's 1st Law in fact, since I have been propounding this for some time.
Note it only applies to
C9 games, and therefore wouldn't apply to the invitational.
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Post #26 (isolation #4 ) » Mon Jan 30, 2006 10:27 pm
Post
by Mr Stoofer » Mon Jan 30, 2006 10:27 pm
If you exclude one game with a self-voter, its about 80% in finished games I've been in. I noticed that Newbie 182 was just lost by the town on day 3. If the town had applied the rule it would have won.
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Post
Post #37 (isolation #5 ) » Tue Jan 31, 2006 10:59 am
Post
by Mr Stoofer » Tue Jan 31, 2006 10:59 am
The formula for Stoofer's 2nd Law is:
P=1-k/n
Where P = probablility of a vote in the thread
n = number of posts in the thread
k = the Stoofer constant, which has yet to be determined.
::edited due to being rubbish::
Last edited by
Mr Stoofer on Thu Feb 02, 2006 7:01 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Post #41 (isolation #6 ) » Tue Jan 31, 2006 10:12 pm
Post
by Mr Stoofer » Tue Jan 31, 2006 10:12 pm
My guess is that k is approximately 0.99283704157921304510793511709375923.
But this needs to be verified by experiment.
::edited due to being rubbish::
Last edited by
Mr Stoofer on Thu Feb 02, 2006 7:02 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Post
Post #46 (isolation #7 ) » Wed Feb 01, 2006 11:43 pm
Post
by Mr Stoofer » Wed Feb 01, 2006 11:43 pm
Norinel, the "rule" applies to all pro-town roles, not just townies. I think your stats nin psts 36 are limited to vanilla townies, which is not the intention.
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Post #48 (isolation #8 ) » Thu Feb 02, 2006 7:48 am
Post
by Mr Stoofer » Thu Feb 02, 2006 7:48 am
Norinel wrote: as stated Stoof's II is
always
true, so I only needed to find one counterexample.
Stoofer's 1st Law wrote: In a C9 game, if a pro-town player is lynched on day 1, both scum were
probably
on the lynch.
Vote: Norinel
for getting the number of the Law wrong and misrepresenting the terms thereof (see:
Stoofer's 1st Law ). Even though, on your stats, it isn't true.
Although your Newbie Game, which just finished, obeyed the law
.
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Post #51 (isolation #9 ) » Thu Feb 02, 2006 10:21 pm
Post
by Mr Stoofer » Thu Feb 02, 2006 10:21 pm
But Norinel's post came
after
I added the word "probably"!
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Post #55 (isolation #10 ) » Wed Feb 15, 2006 10:27 pm
Post
by Mr Stoofer » Wed Feb 15, 2006 10:27 pm
I like it! I'll add that to the Wiki for
Stoofer's 2nd Law
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Post #60 (isolation #11 ) » Tue Feb 21, 2006 11:21 pm
Post
by Mr Stoofer » Tue Feb 21, 2006 11:21 pm
Vote: Anyone who thinks that Stoofer's 2nd law is satisfied by picking out random letters from a number of different of posts
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Post #71 (isolation #12 ) » Thu Mar 01, 2007 10:34 pm
Post
by Mr Stoofer » Thu Mar 01, 2007 10:34 pm
bigAl wrote: With a great use of my precious free time, I have determined
Stoofer's Constant, K, to be equal to 155
, in the equation P = 1 - (K/(K+n)). (Using experimental data from the latest five pages of Mafia Discusion - I did not include any topics after Mr. Stoofer stated his second law, as it seemed biased. Then I fiddled around in excel for a while, trying to find a way to determine the probability. My probably incomprehencible excel file can be downloaded here:
http://members.shaw.ca/abphillips/new_o ... toofsK.xls )
Time for an update on this, I think. What is Stoofer's Constant in respect of posts over the last 12 months? (i.e. since Thok's Corollory and mith's Observation started to have effect?)
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Post #73 (isolation #13 ) » Sun Mar 04, 2007 3:45 am
Post
by Mr Stoofer » Sun Mar 04, 2007 3:45 am
Good work big Al. Let's aim to get Stoofer's Constant down below 100 for the year 2007.
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Post #75 (isolation #14 ) » Sun Mar 04, 2007 11:03 pm
Post
by Mr Stoofer » Sun Mar 04, 2007 11:03 pm
Mr Stoofer wrote: Let's aim to get Stoofer's Constant down below 100 for the year 2007.
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Post #82 (isolation #15 ) » Mon Mar 05, 2007 5:43 am
Post
by Mr Stoofer » Mon Mar 05, 2007 5:43 am
bigAl wrote: There were only six threads that didn't have a vote in the first 100 posts.)
Where? I'll soon sort that out.
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Post #86 (isolation #16 ) » Tue Feb 26, 2008 4:43 am
Post
by Mr Stoofer » Tue Feb 26, 2008 4:43 am
You know, I think this trend has been reducing recently. Hopefully this necrotastic bump will change that.
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