Cyclic Experimentation Set x01 - [Game Over]

[Saint]

As furc has explained

I got lost somewhere in pops' 1) and 2) but the last paragraph is correct at least.

[The Eruci]

:: VoteCount 4x3 ::

LynchMePls (0) -

DrippingGoofball (2) -

Saint, Bunnylover

WrathChild (0) -

curiouskarmadog (5) -

implosion, WrathChild, I Am Innocent, StrangerCoug, LynchMePls

q21 (0) -

popsofctown (0) -

Bunnylover (0) -

I Am Innocent (0) -

StrangerCoug (0) -

Implosion (0) -

nhammen (0) -

Saint (0) -

Not Voting (5) -

nhammen, curiouskarmadog, q21, DrippingGoofball, popsofctown

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

Deadline for Day Four is Saturday February 19th, 2011, at 7:00pm EST.

[popsofctown]

As furc has explained

I got lost somewhere in pops' 1) and 2) but the last paragraph is correct at least.

? Furcolow mentioned the possibility of 4v3v1 lylo tomorrow, unless that was you without colored italics font.

[popsofctown]

o, i'm not voting.

vote: dgb

[Saint]

Saint, so you think I'm SK, which I am not.

Are you afraid that I might NK Q21, and Q21 may be town, and failing to confirm you? Are you worried about this?

CKD is total obv scum. You think there's any chance he's town?

You saying I'm misrepping you is a little rich, after you lied about things I didn't say in some old QT. Get a grip, if you're town.

I'm town, and none of these scenarios you are fearmongering are going to happen.

No, I'm worried you won't do

anything we ask of you

if you believe q21 is scum, then you believe we are town
if q21 is town, however, we are still town

it is irrelevant
i am astonished that people are seeking an avenue away from the SK, the more I crunch the numbers, it is really not beneficial to do anything else here. If we're left at 8v3, at least passing the treestump to the void is a possibility.

[Saint]

Saint,

Back off.

If you're town, back off.

You're getting in the way of awesome, the kind of awesome that leads to little titles under one's name

Where are Q21 and CKD in your little scenario, there?

Suddenly, nowhere?

How do you go from me being 100% SK in the bag, to a whole scum group? A scum group with IAI??? IAI, who is townier than anyone can claim to be?

CKD and Q21 are town, now? GET REAL.

town don't generally get flourished with awesome powers
awesome =/= town
awesome is much more likely to be bestowed upon someone for a good SK win.

So, basically, you are arguing for your own lynch here. I know you are

trying

to imply it is for the town's good, but my heart is screaming "no, no, no"

[Saint]

1) We told CKD to pass the treestump to TMH.
2) CKD did not pass the treestump to TMH.
3) TMH flipped scum.
4) Scum cannot pass abilities to their buddies.

This sequence of events has no logical explanation but that CKD and TMH are buddies. There are plenty of other reasons why too.

@Saint: Do you honestly believe DGB is part of a second scum team and not a SK? What evidence do you have of this?

1) CKD was inactive on the site
2) night phased ends
3) CKD returns and goes "oh, fuck, i'm so going to get mislynched for this"

THAT'S NOT A POSSIBILITY?
DGB has claimed multiple kills, in a game with cyclable abilities.

[popsofctown]

Saint, so you think I'm SK, which I am not.

Are you afraid that I might NK Q21, and Q21 may be town, and failing to confirm you? Are you worried about this?

CKD is total obv scum. You think there's any chance he's town?

You saying I'm misrepping you is a little rich, after you lied about things I didn't say in some old QT. Get a grip, if you're town.

I'm town, and none of these scenarios you are fearmongering are going to happen.

No, I'm worried you won't do

anything we ask of you

if you believe q21 is scum, then you believe we are town
if q21 is town, however, we are still town

it is irrelevant
i am astonished that people are seeking an avenue away from the SK, the more I crunch the numbers, it is really not beneficial to do anything else here. If we're left at 8v3, at least passing the treestump to the void is a possibility.

This post would've made my day, were it not already made by the guy who accidentally told a girl "taste me" in front of a whole Spanish class.

[I Am Innocent]

Saint/vi, last page you called out a DGB, PleaseLynchMe, and IAI scum team.

DGB passed an ability to PleaseLynchMe. Care to reconsider?

[I Am Innocent]

Assuming CKD hops on the competing bandwagon, we have Scum suspects {BL, Pops, Saint, and CKD} on the DGB wagon.

My townie list X nhammen on the other wagon.

Yes I feel good about the CKD flip. nhammen and DGB should seal it...

[DrippingGoofball]

IAI, why do you still expect a player who has claimed SK to be motivated by threat of delayed lynches?

I have not claimed SK, get lost, now you're pushing the misrep a little too far.

I'm town and I win with the town. Furthermore, I'm totally anti-scum.

[Saint]

1) We told CKD to pass the treestump to TMH.
2) CKD did not pass the treestump to TMH.
3) TMH flipped scum.
4) Scum cannot pass abilities to their buddies.

This sequence of events has no logical explanation but that CKD and TMH are buddies. There are plenty of other reasons why too.

Yes, between the failure to pass to tmh and generally not existing since sometime in Day 2 there's quite a bit of reason to believe that ckd is scum, and only a fragment of Page 4 words to defend him.

Contrast that with Goofball, who has been all but positively identified as scum and (separately) a killing element.

The difference looks like:
*ckd has a snowball's chance in Florida of being Town
*Goofball has a snowball's chance in Hell of being Town
*A Goofball lynch, if SK, would reduce the number of night-killing elements in the game by 1, slowing LyLo even with the Tree Stump still in play. If second scumgroup, it would cast everything that has been done during the Day and the Night so far in a completely different light.
Therefore a Goofball lynch is not only more likely to hit scum, but also more likely to help Town.

Regarding the last line, I respectfully disagree.

DGB has been told to take out q21, and the treestump. Anyone else being purged is an autolynch D5.

We can have CKD, q21, and the treestump gone by the beginning of D5 or we can have DGB. Which sounds better?

"Saint, your analysis on the previous page shows we are at 11 players currently, I believe it is 12, no?"
treestump.

so 8v3v1 ->lynch on ckd, he flips town, just failing to send an action in (speculation)
7v3v1->
(Assuming dgb is SK, not a far-fetched assumption) we tell DGB to kill Q21, she does not
5v3v1
lylo, what's up? how are you? oh, wait one of you is a treestump!
it will either be 4v3v1, 5v2v1

Actually, CKD lynch isn't really bad if he flips scum
8(7 with treestump possibly)v2v1
so 7v2v1 then the night kills
5v2v1, if DGB doesnt hit correctly
->lynch dgb 5v2->
4v2, mylo->nolynch->
3v2 lylo
so, your theory of putting off the DGB lynch, and lynching SK, will still not even buy is a no lynch unless she complies

if she complies, and it ends up in 5 town (one of which handicapped by voting, so kinda 4), vs 1 goon, and 1 SK... with her already being caught... I don't see that as being beneficial to her situation. Her best options are NOT going with the town's plan, and killing someone who is both active and obv-town.

Best case scenario in this is if DGB hits q21 and he flips scum on the night kills, like i've said, at 5v1v1 in the above
at which case, we will have under 20% to lynch scum in terms of probability. mislynch->
4v1v1->nightkills
->lylo

best case scenario, we buy 1 lynch, and that's WITH CKD as scum, AND DGB doing what we want, BOTH of which are very questionable.

However, DGB being the SK is almost certain. If we eliminate her, and are at 8v3, look at THAT?
7v3 -> lynch
6v3 -> hit
5v3 -> mylo
4v3 -> lylo

Well, I guess we only get 1 lynch this way anyways.
8v3v1 -> lynch ckd, assuming he is scum
8v2v1 -> night ->
6v2v1 or 7v1v1
^lynch dgb ^dont lynch dgb?
I mean, are we ever going to let her off?
6v2v1 where she won't hit q21
6v2->
5v2-> here is our one mislynch
4v2 -> night kill ->
lylo

Still, we only have 1 mislynch past this day cycle, even if we nab scum correctly and get the treestump out of the way.

NL
8v3v1
6v3v1 -> lynch dgb for lying not hitting q21scum
6v3->5v3mylo
yeah, if DGB doesn't comply we are pushed to lylo

7v2v1 DGB complying after no lynch, killing q21scum, treestump voided (best case scenario)
6v2v1(mislynch) or 6v1v1 (lynching scum) or 6v2 (lynching DGB anyways)
6v2v1 -> 4v2v1 conditional mylo/lylo, yuck.
6v1v1 -> 4v1v1, still mylo where it can be 1 town 1 sk 1 mafia... yuck

6v2, after dgb lynch here (her doing the right thing, nonetheless)
5v2 -> mislynch
4v2 -> mylo
3v2 -> lylo

This is all useless speculation, because we can't trust DGB to be helpful past this one kill, if even then (what if she just does what she wants?)

Sure, her best scenario to win is through killing Q21 and the town getting the treestump voided, but even with the waters muddied that way, I don't really see a benefit in the town keeping her around even then. Going ahead and lynching her, if she is the SK, is simply the best option. I have factored in so many different scenarios in the above, but there is no way I can factor in people being obv-town due to flips and passalongs, so this isn't as bad for the town as I thought. Possibly getting it to 6v1v1, if DGB complies, and we lynch CKDscum... well... then Saint/implosion are cleared, and that leaves us with at least 1 clear just from Q21 flipping scum alone

[DrippingGoofball]

Assuming CKD hops on the competing bandwagon, we have Scum suspects {BL, Pops, Saint, and CKD} on the DGB wagon..

Where does Q21 fit in all this? Saint & Q21 are mutually exclusive. One of these two has got to be scum. Which?

[Saint]

*note bunnylover is probably the first scum on the DGB-SK wagon

[Saint]

1) We told CKD to pass the treestump to TMH.
2) CKD did not pass the treestump to TMH.
3) TMH flipped scum.
4) Scum cannot pass abilities to their buddies.

This sequence of events has no logical explanation but that CKD and TMH are buddies. There are plenty of other reasons why too.

Yes, between the failure to pass to tmh and generally not existing since sometime in Day 2 there's quite a bit of reason to believe that ckd is scum, and only a fragment of Page 4 words to defend him.

Contrast that with Goofball, who has been all but positively identified as scum and (separately) a killing element.

The difference looks like:
*ckd has a snowball's chance in Florida of being Town
*Goofball has a snowball's chance in Hell of being Town
*A Goofball lynch, if SK, would reduce the number of night-killing elements in the game by 1, slowing LyLo even with the Tree Stump still in play. If second scumgroup, it would cast everything that has been done during the Day and the Night so far in a completely different light.
Therefore a Goofball lynch is not only more likely to hit scum, but also more likely to help Town.

Regarding the last line, I respectfully disagree.

DGB has been told to take out q21, and the treestump. Anyone else being purged is an autolynch D5.

We can have CKD, q21, and the treestump gone by the beginning of D5 or we can have DGB. Which sounds better?

You're ASSUMING DGB is going to comply with you
-I'll tell you now she isn't, as our best option would then be to lynch her anyways, being obv sk

basically, we're gonna get one mislynch. the only thing that can save us is confirmation. Q21 dying will confirm us/implosion, like i've said.

What I propose is an in-depth analysis of whose death would lead to the most confirmations

[Saint]

There is too evidence. Occam's razor and process of elimination suggests two scumteams.
1. TownDGB neither has control of a perpetual nightkill nor lies about her abilities.
2. SKDGB doesn't claim her nightkill because it proves (1), and guarantees a lynch in SK lylo. Furthermore, the SK strategy that Vi copypasted from DGB's former QT says that DGBSK keeps a low profile and tries to tick neither scum nor town off. Claiming a nightkill doesn't fit that mold.
3. ScumDGB doesn't mind "proving" herself "SK", because it creates a lynch desire that's easily procrastinated to the point that her unscarred, unknown faction swings directly to victory. ScumDGB could also have a role interaction involving a teammate to protect her from nightkills, perhaps the ability remover of confusing mechanics does it somehow even. ScumDGB sees ckd lynch all lined up, and sees her place in the queue. It's the most plausible thing.


-cut-

IAI, why do you still expect a player who has claimed SK to be motivated by threat of delayed lynches?

Pops, how are you for sure she got nightkilled?
I was speculating that, considering mafia didn't hit one night, it being a possible hit on DGB.
The fact you are arguing against her being the SK makes me believe you are scum trying to muddy the waters. It is really a forgone conclusion, given that she tried to game cyclable abilities as an SK with "a good fakeclaim"

more like a good failclaim

[Saint]

#2423, and #2424 into #2428(pops vote, wherever that was)
these read as if bunnylover and pops have been conversing in a quicktime to me

[DrippingGoofball]

ScumDGB could also have a role interaction involving a teammate to protect her from nightkills, perhaps the ability remover of confusing mechanics does it somehow even.

WOW

How did I miss that???

Where does this NK protection bizniss come from?

Where does this ability removal bizniss come from?

[DrippingGoofball]

#2423, and #2424 into #2428(pops vote, wherever that was)
these read as if bunnylover and pops have been conversing in a quicktime to me

What about it?

[Saint]

Saint/vi, last page you called out a DGB, PleaseLynchMe, and IAI scum team.

DGB passed an ability to PleaseLynchMe. Care to reconsider?

That time I wanted LMP's attention. I already saw that it was impossible.

Although now that you mention it if he can't be aligned with Goofball and he stopped the "shotgunned" kill, LMP is confTown no matter what.

Assuming CKD hops on the competing bandwagon, we have Scum suspects {BL, Pops, Saint, and CKD} on the DGB wagon.

My first thought was to mention something about arrogance... and it's my second thought too. But...

curiouskarmadog (5

[+2]

) -

implosion,

WrathChild,

I Am Innocent,

StrangerCoug,

LynchMePls,

[

nhammen

,

DrippingGoofball

]

DrippingGoofball (3

[+2]

) -

Saint,

Bunnylover,

popsofctown,

[

curiouskarmadog,

q21

]

*Black - Green if Goofball-SK, Red if Goofball-second team

...you do have a point.

[popsofctown]

IAI, why do you still expect a player who has claimed SK to be motivated by threat of delayed lynches?

I have not claimed SK, get lost, now you're pushing the misrep a little too far.

I'm town and I win with the town. Furthermore, I'm totally anti-scum.

Alternate pro-town wincon softclaim? Not buying it since you already claimed Eruci earlier.

(what if she just does what she wants?)

Actually, to be quite honest, that describes what DGB does with every alignment, in every game, and probably even in every minute of her day to day life.

Pops, how are you for sure she got nightkilled?
I was speculating that, considering mafia didn't hit one night, it being a possible hit on DGB.
The fact you are arguing against her being the SK makes me believe you are scum trying to muddy the waters. It is really a forgone conclusion, given that she tried to game cyclable abilities as an SK with "a good fakeclaim"

more like a good failclaim

I wasn't saying she was definitely targetted by the shotgun last night. I was saying that there are several reasons to explain why she doesn't need to be afraid of nightkills if she's part of a scum faction. A non-bulletproof SK has fewer options there.

I can respect the opinion that she is more likely to be SK than werewolf (mafia2), though I personally disagree and would give werewolf the edge. Either way, the two of us agree DGB should be the next lynch, and either way, it will all be moot after that lynch, with either the werewolves being confirmed as a figment of my imagination, or confirmed as a nightmare truly realized. Let's just agree to disagree and be pragmatic, all right? I'm not trying to muddy the waters, I'm just trying to convince people that the lynch you agree is the correct lynch needs to happen.

ScumDGB could also have a role interaction involving a teammate to protect her from nightkills, perhaps the ability remover of confusing mechanics does it somehow even.

WOW

How did I miss that???

Where does this NK protection bizniss come from?

Where does this ability removal bizniss come from?

You tell me. Why do you think you're alive?

[Saint]

So, you're admitting refusal to see obvious-SK given the setup, the failed vigilante claim, the flavor, and the genera-town-consensus?
cool, you're not scum, pops
/sarcasm

[Saint]

HOWEVER, we can work together to lynch scum, in this scenario
pragmatic, indeed!

[popsofctown]

itt townies never disagree about anything, evar

[Bunnylover]

Assuming CKD hops on the competing bandwagon, we have Scum suspects {BL, Pops, Saint, and CKD} on the DGB wagon.

My townie list X nhammen on the other wagon.

Yes I feel good about the CKD flip. nhammen and DGB should seal it...

I'm more then sure no one is aguring the fact that CKD will flip scum.
The whole thing is do we kill DGB first (I think so) or kill CKD? And by kill, I mean lynch.