SpyreX isn't trying to lynch me...
...Okay. Getting scared now, particularly since suggesting a theory about Mafia having a one-shot vig isn't a towntell. (And yes, I did have the same theory about CD at the time, but I will honestly say that I could easily fake that kind of speculation as scum.)
SpyreX, can you explain just what you'd noticed in the VCs beyond, "Ooh, there are SECRETS in there"? I won't tell you, but if you look, I promise they're there.
I don't agree with your reasoning on AGM's claim, but I'm really torn on whether I should share my thoughts on him.
AGM, question. Why did you vote Katsuki on D1 even as you said the people wagoning him were probably scum? And you SERIOUSLY killed LMP because you trusted UK's judgment so much that you went against your own certainty that you'd nailed the scumteam?
Also, AGM, why did you only claim the vig part of your role to Zang?
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I should be packing for my trip, but I'm just going to look at the VCs. I think the order in which people vote, the zeitgeist at the time, etc., is usually much more important than the votes out of context. But eh, why not?
Open
this post in a separate tab and follow along. I'm too lazy to copy and paste the relevant vote counts.
-Early on in the game, between Vote Counts 1.1-2, the rival wagons on Katsuki and Mariyta start building. Note: Zang is already on this wagon. Since none of those three were serious lynch contenders, that makes it more likely that only one of SC, UT, and GW are scum. If Mariyta is scum, that increases the likelihood that her buddy is in {SC, UT, GW}.
Stuff gets a bit wonky after Reck's claim. SC's move to Reckamonic when Mariyta was still up on the board COULD mean they're less likely buddies, but did the Katsuki and Mariyta wagons even have any momentum at those points in the game?
(On a side note, regardless of SpyreX's flip, I was right there would be a two-one split between the pro- and anti-LMP camps.)
-I doubt UK and Mariyta are scumbuddies because both of them are the entire Untrod Tripod wagon early on. Based on their interactions, Mariyta buddies up too openly to UK in the thread (the whole thing about not wanting to rile her up). I know Katsuki accused them of being scum together, but I think their early-game interactions are too strong.
-Looking at the early CD wagon (1.10), I'd guess 1-2 scum among {AKR, GhostWriter, Mariyta}.
-The AGM wagon (see 1.11 for example) REALLY throws me off. Because remember, AGM had apparently claimed vig in the QT to Zang. But that would clear StrangerCoug, UK, AND AKR, and I'd be surprised if ONE of SC/AKR wasn't scum. It's a piece of evidence against AKR and SC being a scumteam, however. (But of course, this is all null if there's no daytalk or Zang never claimed.)
-Mariyta's voting pattern on D1 makes me uneasy, because she always seems late to wagons. That said, Zang doesn't seem like the type to distance, and she's early on his wagon, so that gives her a few town points. Just one thing that worries me: she doesn't vote Zang until two people voted him, even though he'd attacked her early on.
-Zang is an asshole. Why did he have to lurk so badly and never vote? Just to spite us? He leaves his vote on Mariyta for half the day when no one is even attacking her. There's a sore lack of red on the major wagons.
-SC's move to Zang tipped the votes from AGM to him. I won't rule him out as a buddy, because he might have sensed the writing was on the wall for Zang. However, I am going to make a bold statement--particularly since I think Mariyta has been wishy-washy on SC this game. There is almost certainly not a Mariyta-Stranger Coug scumteam. Zang had two votes on him: UT and me. The AGM wagon had four votes on it before Mariyta and Zang both made their move. Yes, I know Zang sucked. But then both Mariyta and SC said, "Hey, why don't we throw Zang under a bus, both of us in a row"? I should probably check to see if there was any momentum against Zang at that point (IIRC, AKR and UK disliked him).
I actually wouldn't go as far as to rule out SC-UT and Mariyta-UT, because UT's vote might have been initial distancing from a buddy under no danger, and then one or both of them might have felt pressured to jump on when they saw momentum swing their way. But Mari-UT are unlikely scum together anyway, so...
-The StrangerCoug wagon confuses me. Two of the four players on it are town/other. Initially I doubt SC is scum with UT or UK based on it. Remember, it happened really, really quickly--like all the votes piled up on him in a row. I mean...the lynch on Scumbuddy A has miraculously been averted, so jump quickly onto Scumbuddy B? If SC is scum, the CD wagon would have more likely sprung up as a counterwagon to him. UK gets more Not-Buddy points for being the first vote on him.
-...And then UT decides to counteract all the Not-StrangerCoug's-Buddy points he'd earned, and moves his vote from SC to CooLDoG (IIRC, did UT even ONCE suspect CD before parroting GW's CD case?) for rather unconvincing reasons. JUST as there was momentum on the SC wagon. Ugh. Uuuuugh. ;_;
-Gah. Zang's second vote on StrangerCoug, after SC's wagon was dying and everyone had moved onto Katsuki. GAH! Fuck you, WIFOM gods.
-I'm not sure it's fair for UT to quote every time SC has said something negative about Zang as proof that they ARE buddies (because you could do the same exercise with anyone)...but I don't like that after AGM came out with his information, SC was the only one who clung steadfastly to "Yeah, Zang is scum. For realz." And then he jumped on to Katsuki. Ugh, I want to smack him for replacing out like that.
-The entire {UT, GW, SC} group can be found both on the D1 CooLDoG wagons and Katsuki wagons. Now I'm torn as to whether GW or UT, as SC's buddy, would jump from CD to Katsuki like that. Did they see more support for a Kats wagon? I'd also be very surprised if the first five Katsuki voters were all town (bringing me back to {SC, GW, UT}). Notably, Mariyta avoids the Katsuki wagon, which adds to my not-SC's-buddy read.
-All this time, AKR has been absent and left his vote. Need to ISO him to see if he was posting while various players were being wagoned. I could have sworn GreyICE had voted UK at some point on D1. Meh, stupid insanely fast day. Not sure if we can learn anything from all those hopping on and off the Katsuki wagon, simply because it's too chaotic for them to go, "Oh, shit, my buddy's already on this wagon."
...I'd thought D2 wouldn't be that useful, but I'd forgotten that despite the short day, there was a bit of wagon moving. Still, AGM's claim messed things up, so this would probably be more useful in context.
-I'm so thrown off by VC 2.2. Why isn't UT voting? Why are the last two players on the UT wagon town? Would Mariyta and GI vote in tandem like that as buddies? I don't even know.
-SC and Zang's cross-votes, unfortunately, tell us little when there were four votes on UT at the time. This was also before AGM decided to come forward.
-Not crazy about how Mariyta jumps back and forth between the UT and Zang wagons all day. I need to reread that day for myself.
-I just realized something. Me, AGM, Zang, UK, and GW were off the final Zang wagon on D2. Since I don't think UK is scum, from my POV, there has to be at least one player bussing at the end of D2.
Conclusions
-StrangerCoug is unlikely to be scum with either UK or Mariyta.
-UK and Mariyta are unlikely scum together.
-UT and Mariyta are unlikely scum together based on their play.
-I predict one scum among GhostWriter, Untrod Tripod, and StrangerCoug.
-I predict only one scum among SC, AKR, and UK due to their interactions with AGM.
GhostWriter holds the dubious honour of not having voted for a single player all game who hasn't already flipped town. (Also, from my POV, he has never been voted for by scum, although in his defence, he hasn't got much heat.)
But I don't think I'll ever bother with VCA again, because it wasn't really worth the trouble.
smileys. I guess it's possible Zang was lurking and ignoring Grey's advice in the scum QT to come forward with AGM's vig claim, and then GI might have tried to "naturally" suggest the idea of AGM being SK in the thread. And his explanations of his thought process behind his AGM-is-an-SK theory have all struck me as slightly off.