Mafia 124 - Dilemma Mafia (Day 6)


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Post Post #5 (isolation #0) » Sat Jan 15, 2011 12:45 pm

Post by Jahudo »

But...but... I still wanna confirm! /confirm

Now then,
6. Bob Bidderskin
Obviously Bub Bidderskin's evil twin brother has disguised himself as Bub. Don't worry real Bub, we'll save you.

Vote: Bub Bidderskin
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Post Post #35 (isolation #1) » Sun Jan 16, 2011 11:00 am

Post by Jahudo »

Hey Final Fires welcome to the site. A couple of things:

1) Its still really early in Day 1 to call Yos inactive, and he'll most likely show up in a day or so, but if not its the mod's job to prod people that haven't made any posts in 72 hours or so. And this isn't a "BaM ruleset" so flakers would get replaced instead of modkilled.

2) Random Vote Stage (RVS) happens the first few pages to start getting information but its generally accepted that no one would have enough confidence or evidence to lynch someone yet. That usually takes a few weeks and tens of pages of case making and wagon building/falling/switching, etc.

3) Saying you're town, saying you would play scum differently than how you are playing now, saying that people will regret lynching you, or hinting that you may have a night ability generally don't help you. At worst people will scummy and want to lynch you more.

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I'm not getting a scummy vibe off Final Fires right now. Trying to take the lead and be proactive comes across as a natural townie response, even if his suggestion of grouping people together and lynching based on that is really flimsy reasoning for lynching.

---------

I just noticed that Empking's signup page had 15 people /in, the #9 slot was used twice. So somehow that meant Flinter is not in the game even though she did /in?
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Post Post #43 (isolation #2) » Sun Jan 16, 2011 5:43 pm

Post by Jahudo »

Final Fires, it would be a good idea to read some finished games on this site if you haven't already, and this strategy article might be helpful to you: http://mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?tit ... e_At_Mafia

Anyway that's enough of the teacher role for me. This isn't a newbie game and you get used to this style of mafia the more you play anyway.
Bub Bidderskins wrote:Jahudo, if you think that Final Fires is not scum, then what do you think of Pom and Darla?
They both seemed to recognize him as a n00b, so I can see what Pom and Darla were thinking about him when they wrote their posts. It doesn't answer why Pom didn't seem to want to generate more discussion about FF's words, or why Darla wants to make a confident vote next instead of a vote based on a vibe.

@Pom: So you thought he was being too serious for RVS? But what about the content, do you think any of that is worth talking about still?

@Darla: I guess you don't want to vote based on a vibe now? Did you think FF gave off a newbie scum vibe or was it just a regular scum vibe?
More Whisky wrote:If the game was a bit older you would have my vote for that.
@More Whisky: Do you mean he would be vote worthy if he made those posts later in the game, or that you are not ready to vote? If you think he's scummy I don't see why you aren't voting him.
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Post Post #66 (isolation #3) » Mon Jan 17, 2011 11:13 am

Post by Jahudo »

ender241 wrote:It depends what you mean by him being a noob, he said he's a noob to this forum so he knows how to play so think before and decide what you mean by noob.
Did you miss the part where he said he played mafia on a different forum that used different rules (ex: 24 hour days)?

Or more importantly: Did anyone else not catch the part where FF said he plays on a different forum. It seems to explain why he called Yos inactive and was ready for a lynch plan.
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Post Post #90 (isolation #4) » Tue Jan 18, 2011 1:19 pm

Post by Jahudo »

Where oh where should I place my vote?
  • ABR's vote on bobsnox is meh. People that don't give reasons for voting could be opportunistic, but they also stand out like a sore thumb and that's usually something scum think about early in the game.
  • DLG's vote on ABR has reasons I understand, but think its way too early to argue someone is lurking/fluffposting scum.
  • Whisky's vote on Yos looks misguided. I don't think a difference of opinion on a tell (in this case ender's cautiousness being newb tell vs scum tell) means either Whisky or Yos is less likely to be town. Or am I misunderstanding the case?
  • Bub's vote on DBE has me interested because her latest post has a vote change, his biggest issue with her. Do you think its a genuine transition, Bubs? I can kinda see why she held off voting ender, but that doesn't make her town because...
  • DBE's case on Whisky in #77 doesn't make any sense to me. To me it either looks like an accidental misinterpretation of his words or an intentional misrepresentation of his words. But I won't step on the investigation because I want to see if Whisky made it clearer now or if he can make it clearer for her.
  • The point about ender being worried about how he might look to others doesn't mean much to me. I think that is just a newb tell that could apply to town or scum equally. BUT I do have an issue with ender not re-voting FF when he first becomes aware that he can without hammering. I don't think it has anything to do with caution or self-image. To me it means his reason for voting might not have been to pressure or question FF at all, otherwise he would have been thinking about trying to do it without a vote, or realizing he could do it with a vote again.
I'd like to know more about ender's thought process when he unvoted. ender, what did you plan to do next when you unvoted? why didn't you re-vote as soon as you could? What was your intention when you placed the vote in the first place? I have doubts you did it from a town standpoint now.

Vote: ender


I might also support a DBE wagon after I see some more from her.

@ALL: Who thinks DBE's post 77 about Whisky is still valid? Who understands what Whisky said?
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Post Post #95 (isolation #5) » Tue Jan 18, 2011 2:55 pm

Post by Jahudo »

brokenscraps wrote:
Jahudo wrote:I might also support a DBE wagon after I see some more from her.
Translation:
Hmm, this DBE wagon sure is growing fast, maybe if I mention that I'd be willing to support it once I see more from here I'll be able to jump on it whenever I want, wouldn't that be great!
Not whenever I want. I said I was waiting for her to react to Whisky's latest post as a reason I wouldn't push my case any further yet. And as far as I can tell its an original thought, so no hopping on other people's reasons either.
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Post Post #104 (isolation #6) » Wed Jan 19, 2011 12:33 pm

Post by Jahudo »

So Whisky explained your A point, DBE? That its neither case because "brought out his scummy behavior" refers to his interpretation of ender's play.
DarlaBlueEyes wrote:A. Are you claiming you set up the ender situation, or taking credit for his behavior?
B. Why have you marked Yos scum prior to your vote on him? Maybe I am misunderstandign your wording here, but if you had a case on him, why is this the first we're hearing of it? and what about him besides his vote on ender to you find scummy?
And I read Whisky as saying he "marked down Yos as scum" by his random vote. So he doesn't necessarily have another reason to find Yos scum because he never hinted at one. Maybe he does, maybe he doesn't.

DBE, I'll look into that game and see if my casepoint could be explained away as a playstyle (not alignment tell).

@ender: do you have a finished scum game on this site?
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Post Post #149 (isolation #7) » Fri Jan 21, 2011 8:55 am

Post by Jahudo »

Darla's town meta on ender does show him commit some typical newbie tells just a month ago. Its hard to find a perfect comparison for "not revoting when he knows he can" but it did show he was not cautious with his voting and suspicions, and he's not here either. So holding off a revote is something I still don't understand.

Also the more I think about it, new players are more likely to change and adapt their meta than players that have become established and know exactly how they want to play going into a game. So meta is probably not very reliable on ender.

@ ender
: Why did you hold off from revoting Final Fires when you found out he was not at L-1 and you could safely do so? You made three posts in that time when you could have been pressuring him with the vote or even talking about him without a vote. It makes me question why you voted him in the first place, if you weren't focused on the wagon.

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Darla is playing pretty cautiously but I'm not interpreting it as scum caution. Alot of her suspicions that don't carry votes also don't have much bite, so they read like someone trying to get a better read before they really commit to a vote instead of someone trying to get as much suspicion on indirectly without taking the responsibility of a vote. I am getting a town read on her now that I see her misinterpretations are not a product of being deceptive.

----------
@ Whisky
: Can you address some of Darla's points on you?
1) What is your read on the other ender voters? You talked about how Yosarian interprets ender differently, but not how FF or myself interpret it different from you and if you have a problem with our votes too.
2) What about her scumhunting methods looks more like trying to "pin the scum tag" on someone rather than being honestly cautious? I don't see where you point to any specific comment and explain that's not how a townie would investigate.

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Final Fires wrote:If the lynch is coming down to him and Darla, I would definately prefer him to be lynched. Darla at least makes points and adds to the discussion - for that reason alone she's less suspicious than ender to me. DLG brings up a good point with her lack of commitment, and I am still very suspicious of her, but right now I feel like ender is the better choice overall.
Why were you comparing ender and Darla like you have to choose between them? Darla isn't your #2 suspect is she?

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brokenscraps wrote:Jahudo & DLG get off for no new thoughts (still don't like Jahudo's comments on waiting for DBE).
You did see my part about Darla before I said that other stuff right? ---v
DBE's case on Whisky in #77 doesn't make any sense to me. To me it either looks like an accidental misinterpretation of his words or an intentional misrepresentation of his words. But I won't step on the investigation because I want to see if Whisky made it clearer now or if he can make it clearer for her.
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Post Post #172 (isolation #8) » Sat Jan 22, 2011 10:47 am

Post by Jahudo »

ender, I for one am not ready to have you lynched right now. I am voting you because I have a suspicion and want you to answer my question to see if I still think this way about you.

Please answer my question:
Jahudo wrote:Why did you hold off from revoting Final Fires when you found out he was not at L-1 and you could safely do so? You made three posts in that time when you could have been pressuring him with the vote or even talking about him without a vote. It makes me question why you voted him in the first place, if you weren't focused on the wagon.
And about this:
ender241 wrote:Because i don't have a reason to vote Darla, i'm just saying if it comes to it i won't mind if it's a sacrifice needed to be took.
So your "FoS" in post 111 is not strong enough to warrent a vote? Do you still have any suspicion left over from that? Regardless you should be able to find some reasons other people gave for voting Darla, and state in this thread whether you agree with them or not. And people should develop a read on her so we even know if there's a majority that support her lynch or not.

I don't see a town or scum motivation from offering to be lynched today. It only looks like the newbie in you is discouraged at being wagoned day 1 (again) and is feeling like a lynch is an inevitable outcome.

I advise you to never give up in any game on this site until you see your death scene.
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Post Post #189 (isolation #9) » Mon Jan 24, 2011 7:05 am

Post by Jahudo »

I disagree with the bobsnox case, but I do have some thoughts.
bobsnox wrote:how the heck does FF know my meta? I've played 2 games here and none with him.
Actually he said he
didn't
know if this was your meta.
bobsnox wrote:Is Final Fires your scumbuddy?
Useless question in terms of learning more about a player's opinions. What is the purpose then?
bobsnox wrote:are you not voting me because you know I'm not scum and you're waiting for a wagon on me to build so you can hop on it?
Another question that sounds more like a statement of condemnation. Obviously you wouldn't expect players to answer "Because I'm scum", so why do you ask these types of questions? I want to know if you know the town reason for doing this.
bobsnox wrote:Scum always work themselves up over contribution and content.
Possibly accurate. Voting without giving a reason in the post is not scummy by itself. Not being the first one to point out a suspicion is not scummy either. I don't think you are using your playstyle in an opportunistic way. But with your playstyle the potential is always there.

-----------------
DarlaBlueEyes wrote:So far my biggest suspect is Bobsnox, who on review of most of his posts/iso as been a total sheep and hostile when his actions are questioned. This screams scum to me and one that can easilly slip under the radar with the Fires/Ender blunders and me, apparently.
I don't see sheeping from him, but his willingness to push the first three large wagons (FF, ender, Darla) is something to think about moving forward. Would he disagree with a wagon that's not himself, would he react to the progression of a wagon he's already on like a normal townie would? Can't say yet.

Certain people on this site will play abrasively regardless of alignment. I think its a competitive attitude that doesn't come from a scum mindset specifically. So I don't think this is a reliable tell.
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Post Post #190 (isolation #10) » Mon Jan 24, 2011 7:47 am

Post by Jahudo »

I'm looking over rekirtS to see if I get the same vibe that Nikanor has.
StrikerekirtS wrote:Wait so you're only voting until you get an answer? For someone who initially hadn't voted yet on either of her two scummy vibes but shes voting because Whiskey missed a question?

Lynch this scummy scum.
How is this scummy scum? You sound really confident about it, like you don't think there could be a town explanation to act this way about suspects. Is that why you didn't ask a question here?
Striker backwards wrote:Like who? You can't just throw out comments like this! Who do you feel could be scum on his wagon? Maybe you were gonna give more if not on your phone but who do you feel is scummy on that wagon?
Why can't she throw out comments like this?

I don't see this as mud slinging the people on the ender wagon because she is not calling out an individual person or reason as scummy. She is primarily backing her own opinion that ender is a newbie, and scum would see a newbie as easy pickings. I also don't see this as mud slinging because she wasn't so sure ender was town, so she couldn't argue people were scum just for being on the wagon. She'd have to argue they were attacking the newbie part of ender and not the alignment-doubt part that she also sees as valid.

Where are you going with this questioning, since you asked for an answer again?

--------------

I think there's a disconnect between those two quotes. He starts off confident DBE is scum and should be lynched / have more votes, and misses a good opportunity to question her actions for a better read. At this point I wouldn't expect probing for answers, I would expect statements and analysis of her posts.

But he does go back to probing. So I question his actual confidence in leading this wagon and analyzing her "wishy-washy" behavior as scum. Especially since I don't see the logic in asking her for scum on the ender wagon when she was talking more in favor of ender than in opposition of the voters.
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Post Post #198 (isolation #11) » Mon Jan 24, 2011 1:07 pm

Post by Jahudo »

bobsnox wrote:Jahudo - I ask those questions to see how they react to the obvious implications.
Which is the legitimate reason to do that. Ok, just making sure.
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Post Post #222 (isolation #12) » Tue Jan 25, 2011 5:23 pm

Post by Jahudo »

MoreWhisky:
Jahudo wrote:
@ Whisky
: Can you address some of Darla's points on you?
1) What is your read on the other ender voters? You talked about how Yosarian interprets ender differently, but not how FF or myself interpret it different from you and if you have a problem with our votes too.
2) What about her scumhunting methods looks more like trying to "pin the scum tag" on someone rather than being honestly cautious? I don't see where you point to any specific comment and explain that's not how a townie would investigate.
Please answer this. And you've seen some more of Darla since you last talked about her actions as scummy. Do you still see that? If so, where.


@Mod: Can you prod Nikanor?
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Post Post #244 (isolation #13) » Wed Jan 26, 2011 1:52 pm

Post by Jahudo »

I don't think Darla would be a good information lynch. There haven't been large enough counter-wagons to speculate whether scum might need to push her very hard. I'm talking even wagons. So just because Bub and bob have been more vocal about her than others does not mean they would need or want to do that as scum.

I really don't understand your rationale for not voting bob, FF. Do you think your vote would distract people from both a bob and darla wagon?
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Post Post #245 (isolation #14) » Wed Jan 26, 2011 1:53 pm

Post by Jahudo »

EBWOP: I don't think anyone is a good information lynch today, nor do I think we should have to use that as motivation to lynch someone. Connections will form naturally.
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Post Post #278 (isolation #15) » Fri Jan 28, 2011 4:19 am

Post by Jahudo »

Deadline is Febuary 5th I think (since day 1 started Jan. 15), so around 8 days left?

@fishy: I knew you'd replace in strong, that's good to see in this game. Do you have a strong opinion about bobsnox yet? He's been the second or third wagon most of the day.

@llamarble: What is your meta tell on Darla? Can you give examples of her focusing on defense and not actively scumhunting enough?

I think that can be more of a subjective assessment when its about the top wagoned player most of the game. They will naturally have to spend more time on defense than other players, and so far I haven't seen her focus too much time on explaining herself. She's voted a variety of people lately, Nikanor and bobs to name a few. I think she's moved away from that cautious play when it was about Final Fires and ender. I think that could be a natural transition from low confidence on suspicions early day 1 to higher confidence later in the day.

But this would be another thing:
flinter wrote:Darla's scumhunting mostly consist out of asking questions without using the answers she gets.
Can you provide examples of this flinter? For the Whisky vote, I thought she was misunderstanding some things, and dropped the vote when she got clarification. So that wouldn't bother me, but maybe there are some examples I missed from her bobs case or elsewhere?

-----------

My current stance: I still have town reads on bobs and Darla. CryMeARiver is my backup vote because of rekirtS, but is not as strong as my ender vote despite never getting an answer from ender.
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Post Post #307 (isolation #16) » Sat Jan 29, 2011 10:36 am

Post by Jahudo »

That is a pretty obvious contradiction from Whisky, in subsequent posts no less. I don't see another way to interpret it than he forgot he had made a Darla+ender connection.

And I have a bad feeling about how Whisky is framing the Darla case now, with her as a lurker.
Whisky wrote:One thing that is going on in this town is that your better of not posting, I say that as this is what Darla is doing now(even if these reasons are very genuine) and its working!
Darla went on V/LA recently, which can't be faulted, and she has made 24 posts, more than most of us. I also don't think she's been fluff posting either. So what is the accusation here?

unvote;
Vote: MoreWhisky
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Post Post #309 (isolation #17) » Sat Jan 29, 2011 1:05 pm

Post by Jahudo »

Llamarble wrote:My opinions are changing rapidly as I review the available information because I just joined and have only read through fully once. Calling me scum because I say my read isn't solid due to my not having read the whole thread is ridiculous.
Having replaced into my share of games, I find this believable. And scum would be more concerned than town about flip-flopping, or about replacing in as a large wagon. Suspecting Darla from the beginning would have been a self-preservation move. Its harder to see that in this situation.

@Llamarble, why did you initially have Darla as a town read? Was that after a full or partial first read-through?
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Post Post #337 (isolation #18) » Sun Jan 30, 2011 4:56 am

Post by Jahudo »

MoreWhisky: What did you mean to say in post 285?
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Post Post #395 (isolation #19) » Tue Feb 01, 2011 4:28 am

Post by Jahudo »

Bub Bidderskins wrote:Do you know why it is weak? Because it is birthed from desperate scum and built on a contradiction. You say that you don't like my case on DBE, then you say that you find Darla to be scummy. Then you vote for me and call me the scummiest player around. You think that Darla is scummy and yet you think that the main pusher of the Darla wagon [me] is scum. Your default stance on Darla is that she is town, and yet when you look back at her posts, you realize that she's been posting scummy. So you panic because she's your partner and you chainsaw me.
I don't see this point. Where did Llarmable call Darla scummy or scum? I don't see anything other than a "maybe I'm wrong about Darla, i'll read some more" in post 277. He says he could "see her as scum" but I don't think that can be called a official suspicion by him.
llarmable wrote:Complete lack of towntells. I see nothing in his posting that looks difficult to believe from scum.
Tunneling / vote parking on Darla with a weak case.
The case he makes against Darla is that she was initially hesitant with voting and then starts moving her vote around. I see no reason for scum to be unwilling to have their vote on people, especially so far from lynchtime. This is totally inadequate to lynch somebody on, even D1. Those Darlactions read to me as townie not sure of reads due to lack of information so far, changing reads as more information became available.
I don't support this case for the most part. Town don't normally explain towntells. Some people give a general "these people look town" and that's it. It shouldn't be any more specific or scum are given help on who to NK first. The lack of a vote or suspicion is enough to say "I don't find you suspicious for what you've done so far".

The vote park looked warranted early on when it was clear Darla was cautious, and an investigation to see if that came from town or scum motivation could be determined. Though by 178 I thought she was starting to play more aggressively, and I'm wondering why people on that wagon didn't talk about it then.

@Bub: You didn't see Darla's vote on bobsnox are aggressive play? Or at least less cautious and something to point out in the thread?

----------

MoreWhisky are you around?
MoreWhisky wrote:I thought maybe darla and llamarble are scum buddies, but ive now gone off that idea, im not gona join the Bw on llamarble.
So were you being sarcastic to bobsnox in post 285 or not?

Do you still think Darla is the best wagon today? Why or why not?

If you like how Llarmable has defended the wagon against him, do you also think the wagon against him is scum-driven or has scum logic?
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Post Post #411 (isolation #20) » Tue Feb 01, 2011 12:36 pm

Post by Jahudo »

FishytheFish wrote:@Jahudo: have you looked in detail at the cases of BB and DLG on Llama? What do you think of them?
I've commented on some points but yes, I can go point by point for the record.

Bub's case on llarmable:
- 302 says llarmable flip-flopped on Darla read.
I don't read much into it because replacements can have second-thoughts after reads and re-reads of ISOs. His posts looked more like a running commentary than solid stances. And I don't think llarmable directly called Darla scum or scummy in 277.


- 339 says llarmable looks scared scum for writing in caps, and that llarmable is contradictory in calling his wagon a quicklynch while trying to quicklynch Bub.
I don't think CAPS is an alignment tell. Its a playstyle thing some people do situationally to their advantage, but I think they would do it as either alignment--Fate included. The quicklynch comments sound like hot air on both sides because they are viewing their wagons from their perspective only. Llarmable was already half-way to a lynch when he replaced in so I don't think people were piling on him in a hurry to get him lynched, but at the same time Llarmable responded like any townie should in his situation: defend the case against you and offer a better alternative through scumhunting.


- 353 says Llarmable lied about his read-through timeline, and that he boosts about his content like cornered scum.
It looks like Bub has a point but I only read it as a lie/mistake. Llarmable had no reason to lie that I can see. The part about content is subjective coming from Bub, because most of it is an investigation he is against. As a neutral party I do see enough content that I could expect from a player replacing under these circumstances. I like that Llarmable pointed out the examples of people lining up lynches, or at least having suspects on the condition that so and so flips first (but alot of people did it so it might not be as reliable as the suspicion sounds). He also tries to be involved in other discussions like the Whisky lie/sarcasm, so there is content from llarmable. I don't see evidence of it being hollow or forced.



DLG case on llarmable:
-343 says llarmable flip-flopped on Daria because she hadn't done anything between his posts to warrant a flop, says he buys time for strategy, implies llarmable called bobs town for his stance on Bub, and tries to stall his wagon.
Llarmable did not re-think Daria based on current events, it looked clear that he was still reading past events and he talked about it that way in that post. I don't understand the "buying time" argument either because the earlier quote suggests llarmable saw the ender case but did not understand it. So it actually does make sense that he would take another look at the ender case if he was town or scum. The part about bobs is a valid point to think about. Llarmable is clearly forming his bobsnox read using the confidence he has that Bub is scum. It looks similar to the purpose behind "setting up mislynches on a single player's alignment", but the affect on bobs is less clear here. And finally the "stalling" argument is null because town would try anything to survive just like scum. Its a circumstantial tell only.


- 396 uses the argument that ender also looked like scum.
Personally my read was incomplete when ender replaced out. He didn't defend against himself and I never got an answer for why he didn't re-vote Final Fires right away after learning he could without hammering. It bugged me, but I don't know if he actually had a reason or not because he never said. So he's still just a person of interest in my eyes.


---------
MoreWhisky wrote:Its been said before but ender made a mess of his role, he wasnt scum he was new to this. Llmarble doent deserve this wagon.
A wagon you've read through? Can you honestly say you know why people are voting llarmable for things llarmble has said/done?
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Post Post #432 (isolation #21) » Wed Feb 02, 2011 7:38 am

Post by Jahudo »

Three days until deadline I think? We should talk about compromise in case we need it, and to see where people stand on all these wagons.

Most of them I disagree with. I still want Whisky to come in and respond to my points, but I can't even tell if he's reading this thread anymore. He's turning into another ender. So bobs might be right in saying he would be good vigbait (if we have a vig), so it may be worth waiting a day on Whisky.

------------

@Bub: If you thought Darla was being cautious scum then how do you account for her more aggressive behavior starting with bobsnox? If it looked unnatural to you, you kept your opinions to yourself and didn't question her about the change in tone. It just looked like you were parked on that vote for the long haul regardless of what she was doing. You even shrug off your own statements that bobs is starting to do scummy things because it involves Darla, which would have been a good time to point out how Darla was reacting to bobs and how that affected or didn't affect your read.
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Post Post #462 (isolation #22) » Thu Feb 03, 2011 8:20 am

Post by Jahudo »

@Yosarian: Can you give some examples of llarmable doing what you mentioned here:
Yosarian2 wrote:It feels like when he got in trouble, he just spammed up the thread with a bunch of garbage,
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Post Post #510 (isolation #23) » Fri Feb 04, 2011 3:15 am

Post by Jahudo »

MoreWhisky wrote:im joining the escaped prisoners tonight as a prisoner traitor.
This sounds like a traitor role, except traitor is a scum role. If you are not claiming scum, Whisky, how is your role different and why shouldn't we lynch you at this point?
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Post Post #528 (isolation #24) » Mon Feb 07, 2011 4:40 am

Post by Jahudo »

@Darla: What was the main reason for switching to Whisky in post 440? Was it better than a bobs lynch or was it more about lack of time left? Why didn't you mention bobs at all then? Did something make you think the wagons were too far apart to make bobs the more viable lynch? Or was there another reason you compromised before trying to get others to compromise to you?
DLG wrote:Fishythefish is the player with a terribly unjustified vote on Llamarble at the end of Day 1. I cannot imagine a town motivation for selling all out to defend another player, then being willing to be part of potentially lynching that slot.
Do you think his reasons are unjustified in his vote post? Or is it more about him settling on a target that he was defending before that?
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Post Post #531 (isolation #25) » Mon Feb 07, 2011 7:36 am

Post by Jahudo »

No Nikanor, don't go! :(

Is the DLG-Fishy connection because of the timing of the vote? What about their attitude towards each other?

I think its more likely a scumbuddy would show signs of distancing instead of defending in almost any scenario. The DLG-Fishy interactions don't seem forced, so I don't see how they can look like scumbuddies.

-------

@CryMeARiver: What was your original reasoning for these reads:
CryMeARiver wrote:Scum
Ender's Slot, now Llarmable
Darla
Bobsnox
Null
Albert's slot, now Flinter (leaning scum)
Pom's slot, now Fishy
Brokenscraps (has remarkably flown under my radar)
Nikanor (leaning scum)
MoreWhisky (leaning scum)
That is alot of people to have as scum/leaning scum and most of them were undeveloped reads.

So how did this comment:
Nikanor wrote:Llarma is town because he thinks his opinion matters.
Overcome your read on ender?

How did it take you until post 407 to decide that Darla's cautiousness was normal for her, when other people had brought up that idea way before that? Did you consider that back in post 352 or did you miss that idea? I can't tell what made you find her behavior scummy in the first place.

Your lack of explanations in the first place make any opinions you give later on seem very convenient. As scum you could have given any reason to drop Llamarble or Darla from your scumlist.
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Post Post #544 (isolation #26) » Mon Feb 07, 2011 12:50 pm

Post by Jahudo »

That's a good point about the early Final Fires wagon, CMAR. Bub voted before FF said he came from 24 hour day games, and the tone in Bub's vote was measured like he was in it for pressuring and reactions. ender's vote is questionable.

----------

@werewolf: why do you like the llamarble wagon? All the reasons provided so far? Only some? Any new takes on llamarble or ender?
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Post Post #562 (isolation #27) » Tue Feb 08, 2011 5:29 am

Post by Jahudo »

Llamarble wrote:@Jahudo: Who are your suspects and why? I find it hard to tell based on your ISO. Which is not a good sign. And you got on the Whisky wagon for the contradiction-logic, which looked like obvious sarcasm to me.
Jahudo wrote:
MoreWhisky wrote:im joining the escaped prisoners tonight as a prisoner traitor.
This sounds like a traitor role, except traitor is a scum role. If you are not claiming scum, Whisky, how is your role different and why shouldn't we lynch you at this point?
This sounded weird to me. My reaction was "huh, obvious fakeclaim, lynchtime." Your reaction sounds vaguely like "Please claim something else so I don't have to lynch you now that I've learned you're a mafia traitor." Care to explain?
I've been rereading so far today, so the only suspicion I've given recently is CMAR.

Explain again how that looked like sarcasm? I didn't read it that way and he didn't defend it that way. Sarcasm would have been a believable excuse if Whisky had really been pushing the idea that they were scumbuddies, so he'd be sarcastic about how long it took someone else to pick up on the idea or how someone else falsely believed they were creating the idea in the first place. But Whisky only suggested the idea once, and bobsnox did not act like he was creating this idea. Also the contradiction was not the only reason I was on his wagon.

His claim was very confusing so I asked for clarification. I wanted to know what he thought the traitor role was because either he was scum trying to get modkilled or town who didn't know that traitor is a scum role. And he also claimed undercover cop so it was possible his clarification would have been more about that. Like he's a cop with some kind of prisoner flavor. It did feel fake, but I've seen VTs fakeclaim before this incident so its not a big surprise.
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Post Post #563 (isolation #28) » Tue Feb 08, 2011 5:53 am

Post by Jahudo »

Darla, I think there are still a few issues with how you played the end of yesterday.
bobsnox wrote:UNVOTE: Fishythefish
VOTE: Llamarble
DarlaBlueEyes wrote:I mistook the votes right before mine as having been subtracted from Whiskey.
Bobs switched his vote the very post before you switched. How did you miss the bolded part where he was unvoting Fishy and not Whisky? I find it hard to believe that you missed this.
DarlaBlueEyes wrote:I will say while his play at first was very scummy he since has seemed to be very aggressive in his scum hunting which is a lot more helpful and townish than what others are doing. (IE: Whiskey)
DarlaBlueEyes wrote:I wanted a lynch and both Llama and Whiskey were appealing to me and yeah. I thought the bob and fish vote changes were coming off of whiksey because I didn't actually check.
Why the sudden turn around from Llamarble was townish to both Llamarble and Whisky are appealing lynches? How is a townish person appealing to lynch?

What is your excuse for not reading that page when you voted? Deadline was still a day or two away. A no lynch was not going to happen if you wait 15 minutes to read a couple of posts.
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Post Post #567 (isolation #29) » Tue Feb 08, 2011 12:10 pm

Post by Jahudo »

Yay for stream of thought. I don't think like the Bub or llamarble wagons so hopefully you will have some new ideas.

Right now I'm looking at CMAR, Darla, werewolf and Fishy as possible scums but no one is jumping out as vote worthy. CMAR and Darla I've expressed some suspicions that I'd like to talk with them about; werewolf and his predecessors have been too null so far which is always a concern after day 1; and DLG's take on Fishy has peaked my interest so I want to re-read him again.
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Post Post #600 (isolation #30) » Wed Feb 09, 2011 3:52 pm

Post by Jahudo »

Good stuff so far Fate. A Darla wagon looks tempting. Where is she?
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Post Post #637 (isolation #31) » Thu Feb 10, 2011 2:07 pm

Post by Jahudo »

Llamarble isn't strictly OMGUSing. He's against me and I'm not against him. I don't see scum who are trying to save themselves act that way to so many people.

A reason Yosarian is town. Hmmm. I'll have to get back to you on that.

But I'm going to hang out on the Darla wagon for a little bit. Maybe see if she'll come by to answer some questions :/

Vote: DarlaBlueEyes
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Post Post #641 (isolation #32) » Thu Feb 10, 2011 2:35 pm

Post by Jahudo »

Probably, but I get tired of waiting for her and others.

I see you are serious about Yos so I will take a serious look at him and give a full read, probably tomorrow.
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Post Post #683 (isolation #33) » Fri Feb 11, 2011 4:56 pm

Post by Jahudo »

Well I got around to a partial ISO at least.
Yosarian2 wrote:it sounds like Llamarble already knows Darla is going to flip town.
I don’t think this is a reliable tell. A lot of people have called flips in this game, many about llamarble being as good as caught scum. It comes from confidence, not inside information.
Yosarian2 wrote:Anyone who votes you is scum, huh?
You kinda have a point, at one point or another he did call everyone on his wagon scum except Final Fires (and bobs who he called town by the time bobs voted him).
Yosarian and Nikanor, Bub Bidderskins, brokenscraps. But from the perspective of a hypo-llamarble-town he would be trying to find the scum on his wagon, so its not unheard of to focus on two people while being wary of a couple more.
Yosarian2 wrote:I don't think you have. Most of your attacks look like OMGUS to me. I don't see Bub as suspicious at all. I also think your "Yos and Bub are scum together and they're part of an elaborate plan to lynch Darla" theory is raving paranoia at best; it dosn't seem to be based on any actual evidence of anything in the game, it more seems like a wild theory you cobbled together based on nothing to allow you to attack the people who suspect you.
Llamarble jumped to one conclusion with that theory. He didn't say why it was more likely than anything else. It looked like he chose the outcome to fit with his narrative actually. Without that evidence (ie: the difference between calling someone being wagoned town and preparing for their lynch) it does look suspicious coming from him, like when he called Whisky pretty bad in one post and a convenient scumtarget in the next. Man, I hadn't seen it that way before.
Yosarian2 wrote: the posts don't look like a coherent attempt to scumhunt at all, more like a series of wild swings in a last ditch attempt to go after or discredit anyone and everyone who was attacking him.
And most of the swings were against the most vocal people on his wagon, the ones pushing it harder. It’s how scum probably would operate in that situation, assuming those votes are there to stay while being nicer to the swing votes. That would possibly require exaggerating tells against the stronger voices while ignoring similar tells against the swing votes.

One could argue that Whisky was sitting on the Darla wagon with weak reasons as much as Bub did, if not more. This might be something here.

I can see Yos town taking the stances he did on day 1 for the most part. I wished he had explained more of the flailing in detail at the time, and even the clarifications felt like generalizations, but I could see that he is depending his llamarble-scum read with his Bub-town read alot too. He thought Bub took an even and genuine stance on the Darla wagon, llamarble disagrees and sees a different conclusion.

Llamarble makes more sense as a lynch to me than Yosarian. There are more questionable motivations on that side. So even though I've been gun ho about a Darla lynch today, I'll help the arms race right now.

unvote;
Vote: llamarble
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Post Post #693 (isolation #34) » Sat Feb 12, 2011 4:56 am

Post by Jahudo »

Darla darla over here! Can I ask you some questions? 1, 2.

Yeah that's L-1 on llamarble again. Actually I'm going to unvote because I don't want the day to end without content from werewolf and david.
Llamarble wrote:First off, I said Ender, Whisky, and Bobsnox looked like easy scumtargets IF TOWN. So that doesn't conflict with my then scumread on Whisky.
True, you may be conflicted in thinking Whisky was suspicious and also a scumtarget if you are wrong, BUT you also based your theory of Yos and Bub setting up mislynches off Darla. Take our your uncertainty over Whisky's alignment, that you hadn't called bobsnox town by that point yet, and you are left with the burden of proof that your own lynch is a mislynch. It doesn't look like a solid argument from an outside perspective.
Llamarble wrote:I described what the situation felt like to me (Yosscum prepping to target bobs/whisky after a darlatownflip). Sure there are other ways to read that situation, but that was an explanation which made the world make sense to me. It's really hard to prove that sort of interpretation is "more likely than anything else," so I stated it so other players could see it and decide if they felt the same way.
Wait, were you also someone considering multiple scum factions? Otherwise if you were not confident about all the variables (your Darla read was developing, Whisky didn't look obvtown) I don't know why you would find that situation most likely on that end of the theory. So it really has to be about Yos and Bub.

Can you point to a specific thing about Bub and Yos that looked like a scum move, and how you would picture town doing it differently? Or do you think that the entire stance was no good?
Llamarble wrote:This "attacking the vocal voices more than the swing voters" stuff is garbage. Vocal wagonpushers said more things, so I ended up responding to / raging at them more.
Did you think Whisky had more justification to be on the Darla wagon than Bub?

unvote
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Post Post #697 (isolation #35) » Sat Feb 12, 2011 5:42 am

Post by Jahudo »

Questionable motives on Yos? Nope, I don't think that.
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Post Post #757 (isolation #36) » Mon Feb 14, 2011 11:02 am

Post by Jahudo »

I was just grabbing some popcorn, this new drama had potential. But I can settle for a Darla lynch.
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Post Post #765 (isolation #37) » Mon Feb 14, 2011 11:37 am

Post by Jahudo »

unvote;
Vote: Darla


David, have you gotten to the part where Darla votes bobsnox? Look at that, then ISO her behavior at the end of the day, which to me look faked.

* I find it suspicious that her bobs case (which is alot more confident than her normal play) disappeared there.
* Especially when she also calls llamarable an appealing lynch after calling him townish.
* There's also her claim that she assumed the two vote changes before her llamarble vote had come off Whiskey, even though one of them included the "unvote fishythefish" line and it was the exact post before her.

-----

Is this normal werewolf? Have you seen him before Fate, or are you just getting the vibe that this is all he's going to do this game?
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Post Post #791 (isolation #38) » Tue Feb 15, 2011 10:31 am

Post by Jahudo »

I don't really see any town or scum motivation to Fate's gambit/fake claim. Though it did make me want to leave you guys to your own bickering and go back to my fav wagon.
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Post Post #792 (isolation #39) » Tue Feb 15, 2011 10:34 am

Post by Jahudo »

Or rather, Fate's vote change made me want to change too. His claim just solidified my belief that neither Fate or Yos are good lynches today, because part of me thinks that with more information you guys will consider other scenarios, like a scum that's not {Fate, Yos, llama}.
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Post Post #796 (isolation #40) » Tue Feb 15, 2011 1:00 pm

Post by Jahudo »

And I hung out on it in the first place because that was my fav wagon. If I've expressed differing levels of confidence its because I'm comparing it to other wagons. My confidence on the Darla wagon has stayed the same since day 2 began. And my stance changed from day 1 partially because her scummy actions happened at the very end of the day when all of us were focused on getting a lynch in and I thought Whisky was the best bet. I didn't know Darla was scummy until night 1. But unfortunately her absence is making any investigating impossible.

Can you explain your Darla and werewolf reads again, llamarble?
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Post Post #798 (isolation #41) » Tue Feb 15, 2011 1:56 pm

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1. Her top suspect was bobsnox, but she didn't mention him at all as a better choice. I expect townies to fight for their preference and scum to hop for convenience.

2. The unvote was connected to the vote AND she was talking about how the wagons were shifting. I can excuse people for not reading unvote targets when they are not particularly interested in where the vote came from. I can also excuse a person short on time for not searching through a page or two for a little piece of information about wagon shifts. But if you want to bring up that argument, how do you miss the unvote part of an unvote/vote two-liner when you are there reading the vote part?
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Post Post #814 (isolation #42) » Tue Feb 15, 2011 4:11 pm

Post by Jahudo »

Yos, are you claiming that town don't fakeclaim or that they don't fakeclaim specifically like this?

Here's a game where Xtomx (town) fakeclaimed to be masons with another player, for reactions: link

Here's a game where ABR fakeclaimed cop when he was VT, because he was so sure the player he wanted to lynch was scum: link

Fate is a kind of player that would do this as town. Maybe scum too but I don't see how this is a must lynch moment that you needed to claim Yos, though I still think you are town.
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Post Post #840 (isolation #43) » Wed Feb 16, 2011 11:42 am

Post by Jahudo »

Sorry to hear that. Take your time getting back in gear, I think we have just under two weeks before deadline?

@brokenscraps: Who would you be voting for now, if you were voting?
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Post Post #842 (isolation #44) » Wed Feb 16, 2011 3:55 pm

Post by Jahudo »

Hi
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Post Post #844 (isolation #45) » Wed Feb 16, 2011 4:10 pm

Post by Jahudo »

Actually I'm hoping this Darla mislynch will save my buddy Yos, because a llama flip would def. screw him. [/sarcasm]
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Post Post #862 (isolation #46) » Thu Feb 17, 2011 4:13 pm

Post by Jahudo »

What is the scum motivation for the fake gambit, Bub? Just because something looks like a bad or illogical move for town does not mean it is a good or logical move for scum.

Bub's case looks a little opportunistic.
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Post Post #871 (isolation #47) » Fri Feb 18, 2011 6:38 am

Post by Jahudo »

David, do you think Fate was using that as justification to switch wagons? From how I read it he had already given his reason for switching. That line looked inconsequential to me.

Bub, what's your Fate scumtell?

Where is brokenscraps and why isn't he giving scumreads?
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Post Post #883 (isolation #48) » Sat Feb 19, 2011 3:16 am

Post by Jahudo »

Bub vs. Fate, I don't have either as scummy (my picks are darla, david and fishy, with broken as extra gut read) but I'll iso them anyway.
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Post Post #911 (isolation #49) » Sun Feb 20, 2011 11:24 am

Post by Jahudo »

@DLG:

My Striker (David's predecessor) suspicions: link.
My CryMeARiver (other David predecessor) suspicions: link.
Judging David himself, so far I can't tell if he's read the entire thread or how much. Its allowed him to stay silent on some pretty big issues, like yesterday's llama wagon and its supporting cast of Bub, Yos and Fishy in particular. I think town would want to look there for insight, but scum might not want to get caught up in it and be paired up with someone.

My Fishy suspicion came from your case DLG, how he transitioned from llama-defense to a vote is questionable, but the thing is I can't think of good conclusions as to why hypo-scum would defend a buddy that late, or feel the need to vote either townie if both wagons were mislynches. By like Darla, I have trouble seeing a town point of view in compromising the way they did, how they both changed their mind so quickly from not wanting to compromise---to compromising.

My brokenscraps suspicion up until recently has been a "I've got a bad feeling but I can't put my finger on it" feeling which I've been trying to develop before I explain, but I guess I pretty much understand it now so:

696 : broken thinks llama might be scum but focuses on his wagon being bad. He doesn't explain most of his reads (including my vote, werewolfs vote, darla's vote) in this post, which looks more like keeping his options (and his reasoning) open as long as he can. It looks like he's purposefully not taking a stance on whether llama or the llama wagon looks more scum.

This attitude helped me understand some of his Day 1 play:

443 : Broken unvotes llama, while still being wary of him, and then implies that scum might be responsible for the llama wagon falling apart. Its the same as 696, he feels like he wants to put suspicion on practically everyone.

--------

DLG, you make a good point about Darla's motivation for changing votes. I had not looked at it that way. I will have to consider it some more.
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Post Post #922 (isolation #50) » Mon Feb 21, 2011 5:13 am

Post by Jahudo »

What is the logic to lynching Fate before llama if you think this tell is good?
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Post Post #924 (isolation #51) » Mon Feb 21, 2011 5:39 am

Post by Jahudo »

I'm just wondering if anyone else besides Yos thinks you'd defend a townie like that when you are scum. I know you like to be right but man that seems like such a counter-productive strategy.
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Post Post #929 (isolation #52) » Mon Feb 21, 2011 6:28 am

Post by Jahudo »

In Fate-scum / llama-town you had a good mislynch sitting there and it seemed like Yos and Bub would be implicated more so wouldn't you just let that all happen?

Should I start a lonely lil broken wagon? I'm not confident in the Bub wagon.
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Post Post #936 (isolation #53) » Mon Feb 21, 2011 11:58 am

Post by Jahudo »

This continues to remind me of the time ABR fakeclaimed cop as VT.

Hey bobs, why do you like the Bub wagon again? Is it mostly because of this:
bobsnox wrote:Bub is scummy because he intentionally took it upon himself to criticize my play as scummy/poor while simultaneously acknowledging that he thinks I'm town. And all this while we're on the same wagon, trying to get Darla lynched.
Or is there more?
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Post Post #940 (isolation #54) » Tue Feb 22, 2011 8:29 am

Post by Jahudo »

unvote;
Vote: brokenscraps
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Post Post #942 (isolation #55) » Tue Feb 22, 2011 2:51 pm

Post by Jahudo »

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Post Post #947 (isolation #56) » Tue Feb 22, 2011 5:56 pm

Post by Jahudo »

I still like my reads.
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Post Post #954 (isolation #57) » Wed Feb 23, 2011 8:57 am

Post by Jahudo »

The only voting pattern I see is the lack of one coming from brokenscraps, while he tries to push suspicion onto people from the outside.

He could jump onto the Fate wagon with this:
brokenscraps wrote:his reaction to Yos since has been mildly alerting.
Or the Bub wagon with this:
brokenscraps wrote:Bud's posts are still looking mighty dodgy
Or back to the llama wagon with this:
brokenscraps wrote:As it is I'm uneasy about Llama being town
Or maybe a werewolf or Jahudo vote with this:
brokenscraps wrote:werewolf has a horrible vote on Llamarble.
<snip>
Jahudo's vote seemed the worst
Or a bobsnox vote with this:
brokenscraps wrote:bobsnox also looks bad, he purposely posted little at the start of the game and what he did post was without much content, justifies it by claiming his tactic is to sit back and watch, this would be all well and good if sitting back at the start of the day wasn't so much more beneficial for scum than town, there are some other things that I'll look into when I have the patience.
Or anyone else because he doesn't give town reads. Its really hard to know what he's thinking or where he's leaning. Out of everyone here I think he's left the most options open to him by not taking any firm stances, ie: not directly calling players scummy or townish most of the time (Fishy and DLG are the two exceptions). I see things like 'bad play' and 'horrible vote' that sounds like someone not able to make a stance. I don't trust that at this stage in the game, so I think he's scum.
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Post Post #957 (isolation #58) » Wed Feb 23, 2011 1:23 pm

Post by Jahudo »

Yos, what do you think of my comparison of Fate to ABR [link=http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 0#p2251130]here[/url]. The only difference between the two games is that ABR faked a guilty and Fate faked an innocent. They took place basically the same time of the game, which makes me think that around day 2 or day 3 (depending on the size of the game) is the logical time for someone who is bluffing like that and realizes there is a downside. That in itself doesn't make Fate townish, but it makes me understand his strategy of trying to get his way. And I think a player like ABR or Fate would pull this to make a lynch happen or to stop a lynch from happening, because they want their way.
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Post Post #965 (isolation #59) » Thu Feb 24, 2011 5:23 am

Post by Jahudo »

So is a llama lynch out of the question? I'm not saying I'd love one, but I'd prefer it to either of these two. If it has to be these two, I'd vote Bub, but I think they are both town.
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Post Post #996 (isolation #60) » Mon Feb 28, 2011 12:21 pm

Post by Jahudo »

What Fate said. And I have no interest in voting llama.

Vote: Darla
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Post Post #1004 (isolation #61) » Mon Feb 28, 2011 5:07 pm

Post by Jahudo »

What do people think of DLG as cop? Do you see him make any town reads day 2 that look out of place, because I can't find any.

You'd think he'd crumb something for later use, so maybe he was blocked or maybe he got a guilty of one of the three suspects listed in his first post of day 2: Fishy/Llama/Darla.

But later on DLG backed off his Fishy-scum read so that probably isn't likely. He still liked the Darla wagon late day 2, but he didn't seem terribly confident.
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Post Post #1013 (isolation #62) » Tue Mar 01, 2011 6:24 am

Post by Jahudo »

Yos, David can you give your up to date Darla read?

Fishy, Llama how are your views different now that Bub flipped town?
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Post Post #1018 (isolation #63) » Tue Mar 01, 2011 10:47 am

Post by Jahudo »

Because Darla apparently isn't V/LA right now, she looks active enough to answer questions so my vote is on my preferred choice.
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Post Post #1045 (isolation #64) » Wed Mar 02, 2011 10:27 am

Post by Jahudo »

Welcome back Nikanor!
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Post Post #1053 (isolation #65) » Wed Mar 02, 2011 11:06 am

Post by Jahudo »

Mod: Can you prod werewolf, if you haven't already? Its been 6 days
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Post Post #1067 (isolation #66) » Thu Mar 03, 2011 9:42 am

Post by Jahudo »

Hey Darla, can I ask you some questions?
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Post Post #1075 (isolation #67) » Thu Mar 03, 2011 1:53 pm

Post by Jahudo »

DarlaBlueEyes wrote:I ISO'd Bub and one thing that really stuck out that I hadn't noticed before was how he has had no solid suspicions since d1 and has wagon hopped freely.
On day 2 Bub voted for Llama once, and switched to Fate once. How is this considered "wagon hopping freely"? Did something about his llama vote on day 2 look bad to you? You say he had solid suspicions on day 1 so it that referring to the day 1 llama vote? Should he have handled the continuation of that wagon differently in your opinion? Should he have made more scum reads by day 2? I am having trouble figuring out why exactly you voted him.
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Post Post #1085 (isolation #68) » Fri Mar 04, 2011 5:45 am

Post by Jahudo »

Llama, why aren't you voting Darla?
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Post Post #1087 (isolation #69) » Fri Mar 04, 2011 6:27 am

Post by Jahudo »

Oh right, 5 votes to lynch.
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Post Post #1098 (isolation #70) » Mon Mar 07, 2011 5:16 am

Post by Jahudo »

What makes Yos scum though?

My order of preference is still 1. Darla 2. broken 3. David, and I'm ready to hear a Darla claim too.
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Post Post #1103 (isolation #71) » Mon Mar 07, 2011 11:08 am

Post by Jahudo »

Yos's logic makes sense, even if the chances of catching something were small there would be no excuse llama would give.
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Post Post #1108 (isolation #72) » Tue Mar 08, 2011 3:43 pm

Post by Jahudo »

Well Darla had been the one to suspect bobs and between him and DLG, bobs looks more like a vig (or maybe SK) kill than a mafia one. So I think Darla is either a Vig or an SK right now.

I also think mafia should be the priority, if we have a good bet on catching mafia. And broken is also scummy and a good bet for mafia. So I want to consider that lynch instead, barring a vig counter-claim.

unvote
for now.
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Post Post #1125 (isolation #73) » Thu Mar 10, 2011 7:03 am

Post by Jahudo »

Werewolf did look suspicious for keeping his options open, but I think not explaining votes is something he does in every game. But he found Llama, David, Fate, Yos and Darla all scummy. True they are all alive still and could contain a scum or more, but that seems like alot of options in alot of the past and current lynch targets. Other than that there's not much to say about him or his predecessors. But Locke is cool and I want to give him time in this game.

Fate, where are these David towntells? I'll search but I am lazy D:
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Post Post #1139 (isolation #74) » Sat Mar 12, 2011 2:11 am

Post by Jahudo »

Vote: brokenscraps


My preferred vote.

Darla, both wagons are at L-1 and you are the deciding vote.
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Post Post #1152 (isolation #75) » Mon Mar 14, 2011 10:28 am

Post by Jahudo »

Yeah llama looks even more town today.

werewolf sheeped Yos on llama and Fate issues so Locke is a good vote today. From Yos's ISO he pretty much ignored werewolf until that last post where he called him scummy. Locke is my top suspect.

Darla should not be lynched today. Fate does indeed look an unlikely partner with Yos (although I wouldn't underestimate Fate's ability to bus, just not in this game with the way they fought over llama).

I remember you calling me scummish before Fate. I'll check that out again. Is there anything new I should be aware of? And what are your DP town tells again? I think DP could be scum.

I desperately need an updated Fishy read.

NINJA EDIT: Darla didn't kill Yos? What is this I don't even
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Post Post #1160 (isolation #76) » Mon Mar 14, 2011 11:16 am

Post by Jahudo »

You didn't like how I sided with Yos on Llama case, and didn't suspect Yos instead. Fair enough. This was my reasoning, people can judge me on that:
Jahudo wrote:
Yosarian2 wrote:I don't think you have. Most of your attacks look like OMGUS to me. I don't see Bub as suspicious at all. I also think your "Yos and Bub are scum together and they're part of an elaborate plan to lynch Darla" theory is raving paranoia at best; it dosn't seem to be based on any actual evidence of anything in the game, it more seems like a wild theory you cobbled together based on nothing to allow you to attack the people who suspect you.
Llamarble jumped to one conclusion with that theory. He didn't say why it was more likely than anything else. It looked like he chose the outcome to fit with his narrative actually. Without that evidence (ie: the difference between calling someone being wagoned town and preparing for their lynch) it does look suspicious coming from him, like when he called Whisky pretty bad in one post and a convenient scumtarget in the next. Man, I hadn't seen it that way before.
Yosarian2 wrote: the posts don't look like a coherent attempt to scumhunt at all, more like a series of wild swings in a last ditch attempt to go after or discredit anyone and everyone who was attacking him.
And most of the swings were against the most vocal people on his wagon, the ones pushing it harder. It’s how scum probably would operate in that situation, assuming those votes are there to stay while being nicer to the swing votes. That would possibly require exaggerating tells against the stronger voices while ignoring similar tells against the swing votes.
----

14 player game with lets say two 2-person scum teams and a vig? Maybe, but who is stopping the kills with the doctor dead. Scum?
or
Some kind of bus driver / redirector ? I guess if that's the case it will be revealed whenever its best.
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Post Post #1162 (isolation #77) » Mon Mar 14, 2011 11:19 am

Post by Jahudo »

True, but that only answers one of the two questions. The bigger one right now is how Yos died.
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Post Post #1168 (isolation #78) » Tue Mar 15, 2011 6:49 am

Post by Jahudo »

No one likes the bus driver theory? It seems odd that Darla-blue mafia wouldn't have claimed the NK. And if she's red mafia why not claim it anyway? Who is going to counter her? "Hi guys, I'm a mafia goon and I killed Yos so you guys should lynch Darla and then ignore the part about me being mafia."

I am not a bus driver though, so this isn't me claiming anything.
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Post Post #1171 (isolation #79) » Tue Mar 15, 2011 8:03 am

Post by Jahudo »

Ok nevermind this is a normal game. I guess there's no other explanation besides two mafias?
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Post Post #1174 (isolation #80) » Tue Mar 15, 2011 8:57 am

Post by Jahudo »

But why wouldn't Darla have claimed to kill Yos then?

This large theme game had only one mafia and it was called "Columbian Mafia" so you wondered if there was another place-named mafia: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... =3&t=14424
That's the one example I can think of off the top of my head.
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Post Post #1180 (isolation #81) » Wed Mar 16, 2011 9:37 am

Post by Jahudo »

We can't trust Darla didn't target Yos, she could be lying under the idea that we're only going to lynch possible blue mafia today.

So she could be blue mafia. But if she is red mafia, it will cut down on possible number of NK'ed townies which is also good. We shouldn't rely on scum targeting Darla yet, or Darla hitting scum.

I can't think of any other explanations for Yos getting killed besides two mafias now, so I am willing to vote Darla. Maybe we should wait for everyone to have their say though, like Fishy when he's back.
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Post Post #1194 (isolation #82) » Sun Mar 20, 2011 3:39 am

Post by Jahudo »

I'm fine with lynching Darla now.
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Post Post #1196 (isolation #83) » Sun Mar 20, 2011 7:14 am

Post by Jahudo »

Vote: DarlaBlueEyes
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Post Post #1198 (isolation #84) » Sun Mar 20, 2011 7:17 am

Post by Jahudo »

I was the hammer, but ok
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Post Post #1201 (isolation #85) » Sun Mar 20, 2011 7:26 am

Post by Jahudo »

You thought I'm suspicious of you? LL and DP lynches FTW.
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Post Post #1212 (isolation #86) » Tue Mar 22, 2011 11:03 am

Post by Jahudo »

I'm a Gunsmith. My actions have been:

Night 1 - Darla - She had a gun
Night 2 - Llama - He does not have a gun
Night 3 - Yos - He had a gun
Night 4 - DavidParker - no result, so maybe I was blocked

I picked Darla first because she was pretty null from being V/LA. If you check my ISO you'll see that I was really adamant about a Darla lynch on day 2. When Bub flipped town I felt I owed it to him to check out Llama on night 2. Since then I've said Llama was town a few times. Night 3 I choose Yosarian because Fate was so sure about him. And last night was a toss up between David and Locke and I just chose David.

In hindsight targeting Yos or even trusting his claim was stupid once DLG flipped cop.

David can go next.
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Post Post #1218 (isolation #87) » Wed Mar 23, 2011 2:37 am

Post by Jahudo »

I believe I have tried in this game and actively made arguments that I felt were important. From day 2 my focus was affected by my Darla gun result, but I still found time to look at other wagons (Fate, Bub, Llama, Yos) and think about other people as suspicious (broken, werewolf, CMAR, llama).

What did you think of this post where I gave my opinion on several of the llama case points? I was trying to understand all of the factors to see if I could agree with enough of it or not. link

What was my motivation for defending Fate's fakeclaim after it was revealed to be fake? I referenced other games to diminish that point against him because it was not a scumtell and Fate should not have been lynched there. lin

-----

1. There was a chance she could have been a cop or vig, so I didn't see it as beneficial to claim a powerful role on day 2 after only one result. I felt the better solution was to keep questioning Darla and hope she became more active so other people might see her as suspicious too.

2. Are you saying a tracker would have a gun? My role PM didn't say who would or wouldn't have a gun, so I used the wiki page for reference and that did not list tracker. It's called a flavor cop and I don't see how tracker would have gun as a flavor.

3. I'm looking through my archives and I don't think I've ever been in a proper massclaim as scum actually. There was Alabama Correctional, but massclaim came on the day where posts were limited to license plate length, like 7 characters. Sushi mafia was over before a massclaim. /in 10 was all vanilla, a few more were newbies. And I can't find if I claimed in DHSDSM Alpha or Beta but it doesn't look that way. The Alpha endgame was more about posting QT threads.

If you are looking for a scum meta on me, you won't find much. Besides not being scum here, my last two scum games were in August and March of last year. I've only been in a mafia 4 times since April 2009. So I don't know what my meta would be if I was in a scum game today.

-----

That commuter role would be considered normal. Non-consecutive night and X-Shot are allowed according to the wiki page. I would say the best plan from my perspective is to keep DavidParker alive today and target him again tonight.

I'm leaning towards a Locke vote but I'm going to go ISO Fishy again. I need to check and double check my reads from the past days.
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Post Post #1220 (isolation #88) » Wed Mar 23, 2011 6:48 am

Post by Jahudo »

Is it? Framer cripples the cop role so you can only trust the innocents. My role is weakened because I could have outed the cop.
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Post Post #1231 (isolation #89) » Thu Mar 24, 2011 4:22 am

Post by Jahudo »

I'm around but I'm most interested to hear what llama is thinking because I refuse to think he's scum with some non-normal power to make him look innocent to my gunsmith role.
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Post Post #1239 (isolation #90) » Sat Mar 26, 2011 3:27 am

Post by Jahudo »

That looks like a cop breadcrumb, not a gunsmith breadcrumb. A cop would find people trying to kill innocent townies. A gunsmith finds anybody with a gun, no matter what they are doing (cop, vigilante, pgo, army vet). So if flinter actually claimed gunsmith from that we should not have believed her.
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Post Post #1241 (isolation #91) » Sat Mar 26, 2011 6:24 am

Post by Jahudo »

It would have been the only interpretation if she left out the part about killing innocent townies. That part sounds specific to an alignment investigation, not a flavor investigation.

Even if she is scum bread-crumbing gunsmith there it doesn't mean there can't be a town gunsmith. Besides, without my role the town would be too underpowered because the cop is weakened by the framer. With my role I am not overpowering the town because the cop weakens me.
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Post Post #1243 (isolation #92) » Sat Mar 26, 2011 8:16 am

Post by Jahudo »

Are you saying I am a gunsmith or not? Why would a scumbuddy steal their partners power? If I was a scum gunsmith I would have said so in the pre-game scum QT, or if there wasn't one pre-game flinter couldn't have even known about it anyway could she? In any case why would she steal my provable power instead of letting me have it?

And if you are saying I'm not a gunsmith then how do you explain all of my crumb results being right? If I was scum I wouldn't have known Yos was lying about his role or that Darla was a killing role or that you weren't other mafia or that David couldn't be reached last night?
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Post Post #1245 (isolation #93) » Sat Mar 26, 2011 10:00 am

Post by Jahudo »

Vote: Locke
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Post Post #1251 (isolation #94) » Mon Mar 28, 2011 10:25 am

Post by Jahudo »

Vote: DavidParker


Let me know if you want to go over anything Llama.

I hope you will rethink your read from yesterday now that we know Locke was the blue team's power role.
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Post Post #1255 (isolation #95) » Mon Mar 28, 2011 11:31 am

Post by Jahudo »

Check out this post I made on day 2:
Jahudo [url=https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?p=2796634#p2796634]post 796[/url] wrote:My confidence on the Darla wagon has stayed the same since day 2 began. And my stance changed from day 1 partially because her scummy actions happened at the very end of the day when all of us were focused on getting a lynch in and I thought Whisky was the best bet. I didn't know Darla was scummy until night 1.
It explains how I changed my read of her overnight. Once I got the gun result back on her I re-read her ISO and found her suspicious. I started day 2 questioning her and building my case. I didn't want to claim after only 1 result, so this was the clearest I wanted to be once I was more confident that she was a scummy killing role as opposed to a townish power role like a vig or cop.
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Post Post #1256 (isolation #96) » Mon Mar 28, 2011 11:48 am

Post by Jahudo »

Yes, I claimed before Locke or DP so they knew their roleblock was successful and what it had done to me. They could tailor their claims to that. DP claimed commuter next, which was another way to explain it instead of one of them claiming RB. I'm guessing because RB is pretty much just as common for scum or town, but commuter is more of a town power role.
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Post Post #1268 (isolation #97) » Wed Mar 30, 2011 2:02 am

Post by Jahudo »

Oh yay, I was not looking forward to making a summary.

Empking, so did you make this setup based on Fire and Ice mafia?
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Post Post #1275 (isolation #98) » Wed Mar 30, 2011 6:23 am

Post by Jahudo »

Fate, when are you going to admit that I play this way as town. Objection mafia, this game, etc. I like being shady enough to survive until endgame. You super townies are missing out on clutch time fun.
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