Mini 1111: Wait Your Turn, Tex! (GAME OVER)
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I'm not afraid of anything; I just find vague arguments that seem to suggest a higher likelihood of me being scum to be less persuasive than ones that don't.Fate wrote:CES being afraid to be included in a list of potential scum is BAD, btw.Scumchat is awesome. Yarr!
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Hmm. Your first 2 paragraphs here (preview: in #177) suggest a distribution of scum among the 2 wagons that doesn't seem to mesh with your town reads, i.e. 4/6 on Pokerfacewagon belong to your town list and Xalxe's more suspicious than the amount of votes indicate but none of the voters are on your town list and you call out scotmany's vote as being distancing.
Personally I don't like this type of argumentation which essentially assumes that the scum group as a whole acts predictably (as opposed to arguments that deal with individuals), but I can't resist a bigger wagon.Unvote, vote: XalxeScumchat is awesome. Yarr!
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Hoopla, the question was prompted by posts #187 and #188. Pokerface says he leans scum on Hoopla and Fate, then chooses to vote for you despite the fact that a Fatevote would've had way more impact on the game, notably right after Xalxe went after Fate.
Uncertainty is an inherent part of the game and acknowledging this when prompted to by a question is not scummy. Furthermore, Sudo in no way avows responsibility in that post.Sudo wrote:This part hear seems to suggest you have some doubt or you are trying not to get blamed for him possibly being town and I think scum would be more prone to worying about being blamed than town, especially before fate's flip. feels like you know how he'd flip, so yay I am starting to get a scum read on sudo too.Scumchat is awesome. Yarr!
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See, my point of view is that is exactly what they planned to do in their qt, but PF didn't follow through on it because it would've been obvious due to the proximity of their posts. Note that he totally did set-up a Fate vote in that post.Hoopla wrote:If anything, that is a town tell - Pokerface could quite easily have elected to create a "me vs. him" dilemma, pushing Fate's wagon, or even anyone else with votes. Scum leading vote counts (especially close to lynch) are likelier to bundle onto the next highest vote getter, as they stand to lose more by being lynched, thus making it the rational play to bring someone else into contention (or closer to contention). It's possible the vote can be interpreted as avoiding responsibility, but I don't think it is scummy either way.Scumchat is awesome. Yarr!
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I see I missed #235.
You explain your actions to people so that they don't go after you; that's just part of the game.PokerFace wrote:I can't say i agree with your first sentence cause it still feels like he was acknowledging it to agar, as though he didn't want agar to go after him.
Null. Looking over his iso, I see he needs to post more though.PokerFace wrote:What do you think of sudo in general CES?Scumchat is awesome. Yarr!
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I got that was what you meant; I was just jokingly pointing out that your lynch looks a whole lot more inevitable.
What are you on about? I have yet to see someone apply scum-meta to me.Xalxe wrote:I'd be up for a CES lynch today, mainly due to scum-metaScumchat is awesome. Yarr!
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I am even night. (Which means I could improve my record of getting to shoot in vig set-ups to 1 in 3 Tonight!)
This leaves Fate.
As far as I can tell (I can't really exclude having played with him in the period between his joining and before I left), this is my first game with Sudo.PokerFace wrote:I assume you have played with sudo before. What do you generally think of him?Scumchat is awesome. Yarr!
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Hmm. The two possible plans are no-lynch + crossfire as you suggest and lynch + triangle. In the second case we win simply by lynching correctly (since the triangle is guaranteed to kill off scum), which seems fairly manageable. In the first case we lose if it's either of the pairings we made. Let's assign probabilities of being scum to each of us: p1>p2>p3>p4 (the numbers are in order of scumminess; this is all hypothetical.) Then the chance of success for the first one is p1 whereas it's 1-p1p4-p2p3 (fairly sure that's the two pairings you want to pick) for the second one. If p1=p2=p3=p4, both would be 0.5. If we now disturb things by making p1 higher at the expense of p4 and p2 higher at the expense of p3, then we find a derivative of 2(p1+p2)-2, whereas the derivative is 1 in the first case. So in this simplistic model p1+p2 must be higher than 1.5 just for the chance of success to grow faster than that of the triangle plan which clearly suggests the triangle plan is better.
But the best way of judging would probably be for UA to post how likely he thinks people are scum and we can just do the calculations!Scumchat is awesome. Yarr!
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Ignore those calculations. We can express the probability of winning following the crossfire plan as p1(1-p4)+p4(1-p1) (i.e. odds of #1scum#4town OR #1town#4scum) which can be rewritten as p1 - p4(2p1-1). This clearly shows that firstly pairing #1 with #4 would be optimal (since p3>p4) and that the crossfire plan is strictly worse than the triangle plan since p4(2p1-1)>0 (p1>0.5).Scumchat is awesome. Yarr!
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Because the confirmed innocent decides things, jackass.Fate wrote:AND WHY ARE UA'S READS MORE IMPORTANT THAN YOUR OWN?
I don't know. I think PokerFace is scum, but I'm not sure who his partner is.Fate wrote:IS SCOTMANY TOWN? IS THAT IT?
Pokerface is doing theFate wrote:POKERFACE IN ALL HIS MADNESS IS OBVTOWN COMPARETIVELY.exact same thingyou're accusing me and scot of: leaving it up to UA and set-up speculation.
Although crudely simplistic it does show my earlier conclusion was wrong. I see I forgot to adjust the probabilities of #4 being town given that #1 was scum and vice versa, which would give p1(1-0.5p4)+p4(1-0.5p1)=p1+p4(1-p1), which ironically reverses the conclusion: although the improvement is slight (it's significantly smaller than 2/3 vs. 1/2 as in Pokerface's example because he implicitly assumed the distribution (0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5) which hurts the triangle plan most), crosskilling is always better. I feel silly.PokerFace wrote:Cross with no lynch
scuma >< towna & scumb >< townb = Win
scumb >< towna & scuma >< townb = Win
scuma >< scumb & towna >< townb = LooseScumchat is awesome. Yarr!
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I believe that was about scot and me deferring to UA and/or talking about the set-up while PokerFace was supposed not to have done this even though he totally did. Not very convincing.Fate wrote:YOU AND SCOTMANY ARE SCUM AND I'VE STATED WHY. POKERFACE IS TOWN I'VE STATED WHY..
Way to pay attention. Pokerface is the scums.Fate wrote:YOU'RE THE ONE WHOS ALL "scot is scum but iddunooo his partnerzzz waaaaaaaaaaa"Scumchat is awesome. Yarr!
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Weren't the "obvscum" scot and me (and note that my plan would still be a win for town then)?Fate wrote:Because my plan is guaranteed to win this for town based on obvscum+obvscum.
Now you're just trying to prey on UA's "PokerFace" suspicions, and try to get teamed up with him. I wouldn't be ALL THAT surprised if you two were scum.
?? Under UA's plan we totally lose to a PokerFace-Scot scum team (which is equivalent to you being town).Fate wrote:As long as you know you are town then this win is in the bag, from your point of view.
I'll give it a try.Fate wrote:You'll have to convince me why PokerFace is scum, using an actual CASE with points and such.Scumchat is awesome. Yarr!
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Case:
Pure rhetorical jibberjabber - an obvious sign that PokerFace wants to justify his vote, not find scum.PokerFace (#55) wrote:Ahh but in voting me for a reason, you are also blatantly trying to end the RVS
Feels off.PokerFace (#55) wrote:Your wagon is gone so start your meta
Posturing.PokerFace (#65) wrote:Well whatever I guess if you don't want to join in it now its no fun anymore
On Page 3.PokerFace (#65) wrote:What's the case on katsuki?
Reasoning is mostly okay here, albeit unconvincing, but 1) "first to use FoS" is a very weird criterion since I don't see how the order in which it happened should matter and 2) Fate was the first to FoS. Looks like distancing.PokerFace (#65) wrote:I'll jump on Xalxe since he was first to use Fos. When you are this early in the game an Fos has no point but trying to avoid getting suspected or making any waves. He should have just voted as I don't think there is anything truly wrong with omgus in RVS or this early in the game
This supports my previous accusation. Note that Xalxe conveniently got distracted by Fate and never mentions PF again, although to be fair, he failed to mention quite a few (including scot).Xalxe (#73) wrote:PF backed up his vote. I'll deal with him in a minute.
Obvious under-the-table jab.PokerFace (#188) wrote:UA gave omgus as a reason to keep voting me. I don't really consider that a scum tell early on in the game especially since I was primarily trying to get fun out of his stitch but aparently he didn't want to wait to try it later, oh well. I did find it interesting that his logic was rather counter intuitive.
He misread Hoopla's perfectly role-neutral statement here; not sure if this is a honest mistake. Could easily be role-fishing.PokerFace (#188) wrote:So first you say we shouldn't claim or wifom it and then you totatally just did one of those things and pointed to the scum to off Fate?
Pointless jab.PokerFace (#188) wrote:If he was town he wouldn't need to cover his tracks
His entire attack in #188 on Hoopla feels thoroughly unconvincing. It all seems to be along the lines of "I disagree with this course of action." rather than "This is scummy, because...".
Doesn't specify a preference for Hoopla over Fate yet goes with the pressureless Hooplavote over the useful Fatevote. I can think of at least 3 possible scum motivations here:PokerFace (#188) wrote:Yay fritz is confusing and I am leaning scum on hoopla and Fate. feel stronger about them than i did about xaixe earlier.
unvote, vote: hoopla
1) Scum decided to make a concerted push on Fate to avoid the Xalxelynch (a not unreasonable supposition as evidenced by how well we're doing now after the Xalxelynch), but PF thinks it would be too obvious due to Xalxe doing the same in #187, the preceding post.
2) He'd rather not rock the boat with a Fatevote.
3) He doesn't want to be accused of sheeping since his case on Fate was mostly borrowed.
Unexplained switch on Fate (quite possibly a reaction to people calling the PokerFace-Xalxe connection I just mentioned); brings up Hoopla's "soft claim" again, don't see a pro-town motive for that if he isn't even suspicious of her.PokerFace (#227) wrote:After reading posts like these I am re considering my reasoning I am starting to consider hoopla is town and thought fate was town as apposed to scum defending scum or scum buddying. It kinda makse sence. Only thing that don't make sence is where she almost soft claimed too.
More posturing. Why not simply remove it? This doesn't help anyone, just takes up space.PokerFace (#227) wrote:@Sudo
viewtopic.php?p=2727859#p2727859
Are you voting Fate because you think he is scum for acting anti-town with no good reason OR do you think he is town acting anti-town and should stop or be killed?
I just read sudo's last post.
As I mentioned then, this looks more like a knee-jerk reaction to someone admitting uncertainty than someone scrutinising Sudo's posts to determine his alignment.PokerFace (#227) wrote:This part hear seems to suggest you have some doubt or you are trying not to get blamed for him possibly being town and I think scum would be more prone to worying about being blamed than town, especially before fate's flip. feels like you know how he'd flip,
"Starting" is a very weird and possibly revealing choice of language.PokerFace (#227) wrote:so yay I am starting to get a scum read on sudo too.
Least convincing Xalxecase ever. Not sure why he's already thinking ahead to the deadline - not a town mindset.PokerFace (#227) wrote:Xalxe your play so far seems kinda angry. You say you agree with UA and sudo and then yell at them for making you feel useless. Also to note your laugh at my post. I'm however not sure why you are disturbed when you had 2 votes at first seeing you disturbed at when you were l-1 is expected but again why angry at people not voting you? Your actions feel wierd, couple that with what you said earlier and what I thought before where you didn't make waves, makes me think you may be worth the deadline lynch. But its not time for that yet I think right now I am waiting on hooplas response before i get off her
Tries to spin Sudo explaining himself into something scummy.PokerFace (#235) wrote:I can't say i agree with your first sentence cause it still feels like he was acknowledging it to agar, as though he didn't want agar to go after him.
Overly lynch-orientated. He'd already talked about Xalxe and Hoopls plenty.PokerFace (#239) wrote:I'll go over xalxe and hoops and give what I think of them later
(referring to his previous post) A telling assumption, especially since he totally wasn't voting Xalxe.PokerFace (#277) wrote:that last part is asuming xalxe is scum if he ain't i will have to rethink alot
Weaksauce explanation. Again,PokerFace (#278) wrote:fate put up some defense to accusations on him while xalxe put up nothing much but an attack back on fate so yay i'm not unhappy with how things turned out and think that was better choice out of those 2he was still voting Hoopls here.
Seems oddly deferential to the town's wishes - popcorn mass claim was obviously the right move.PokerFace (#332) wrote:Should we massclaim and if so, which claim method should we use (Popcorn, random, etc)
Some sweet post-mortem distancing. Xalxe's attack came way too late for it to be chainsawing.PokerFace (#340) wrote:If anyone was chainsawing it was xalxe
Comes out of nowhere.PokerFace (#355) wrote:I am fairly certain scotmany is scumScumchat is awesome. Yarr!
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Oh hey.PokerFace (#355) wrote:I am fairly certain scotmany is scum
Is this is the key point?PokerFace (#379) wrote:Got no firm read on scot.
In any case I will note that I didn't ISO PokerFace but re-read the game and the voting Hoopls near deadline is a dead give-away given his anti-Xalxe behaviour around the same time.Scumchat is awesome. Yarr!
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That's exactly what I claim you were pretending to do. I don't see why you'd state it that explicitly. Note how you repeat it in this post too. It feels too intentional.PokerFace wrote:I was basically trying to have some lulz
There's that word again - interesting. Calling something interesting is an easy way to throw mud without committing.PokerFace wrote:I still thought him saying i was trying to break randomness and voting for it was interesting
Who you talked about more is irrelevant (and the answer is only Hoopla because you quoted a case against Fate instead of developing it yourself).PokerFace wrote:who did i talk more about in that post? Fate or hoopla? Hoopla and i felt stronger about her since I thought she had gone back on logic and safe claimed thinking she could get away with it since everyone was
"Not 100% sure he was scum." is a meaningless platitude - you weren't 100% sure about Hoopls either. It's very easy for you to now retroactively state that Hoopls was your bigger suspect, but there wasn't a sign of it then.PokerFace wrote:I disagreed with his actions and was not 100% sure he was scum. felt firmer abut hoops since I thught she went back on her own logic
Then why didn't you say any of that?PokerFace wrote:Process of elimination since i was uncertain on you 2 and didn't think you were scum together. And read ain't strong or firm since its math and not based on what has happened in gameScumchat is awesome. Yarr!
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Is that true? If scum claim odd, we lynch an odd - if we're right, we win by triangle, if we're wrong, we appoint the towniest player to shoot the remaining odd and other two crosskill. So scum have to be the towniest odd and even claim to pull out a win.
So no, not satisfying. I don't think we did all that much more than catch scum Day 1 (and Xalxe wasn't playing all that well); we stumbled into the CES-Fate non-pairing and Fate had me fooled at the end.Scumchat is awesome. Yarr!
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If he gives you a fool-proof plan that lets the town, he's probably town? Not a very useful metric, Fate.Fate wrote:Finally I can read PF
I'm not sure what to think of the set-up. Day 1 lynch was incredibly important in hindsight. I thought I was looking pretty good come Day 2 but that crosskill plan is hard to game.Scumchat is awesome. Yarr!
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You do realise you completely ignored a foolproof plan, right?
That said, most of the credit for the win should go to Hoopla, whoever shot Katsuki(InflatablePie?) and PokerFace for coming up with that final plan.Scumchat is awesome. Yarr!
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At the beginning of the Day, sure. Then I pushed on PF and around the time PF came up with that plan you were yelling at Hoopla for going "PF and Xalxe aren't scum together".Fate wrote:I WAS CALLIN PF TOWN BEFORE HE HAD THAT FULLPROOF PLAN
I knew I couldn't go for being paired with Scotmany directly - it'd've been too obvious. What I was going for was that either UA would make the counterproposal of CES><Scot since I was so explicitly arguing for CES><PokerFace or that UA would reject my plan in which case I could in good faith argue for a compromise "lynch PokerFace" plan or simply tempt Fate into rebelling against authority with me.PokerFace wrote:What was your plan though trying to get paired with me? were you hoping I'd say "Well CES seems town and I don't want him to shoot me, so pair me with Fate!" or something along those lines?Scumchat is awesome. Yarr!
~"Multiple exclamation marks are a sure sign of a diseased mind."~- Cogito Ergo Sum
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