Mafia 123 - Outdoorsmen Mafia 2 GAME OVER

[iamausername]

/confirm.

[iamausername]

VOTE: evilpacman

Seems like Nachomamma has got this game sewn up already. Good job.

[iamausername]

Im trying to figure out if you truly believe what you're saying or not, because if you do you should be lynched, Immediately.

For DH to

truly believe

what he is saying (that is, that you are scum with evilpacman), he would need to be either a) town, or b) scum with you and evilpacman.

So which is it? Are you trying to lynch a townie or are you bussing?

[iamausername]

Erm, no. Your false dilemma is noted though. People seem to love these. If DH really believe his logic, he is scum. His ideas are scum. Is play is scum.

Did you not receive a town role PM iam?

It clearly states two scum teams.

You are insinuating that there is a three person scum team. Obviously, this makes no sense to have two three person scum teams in a 16 player game. So come back with better conspiracy theories next time.

The correct answer was "Actually, DH could be scum and genuinely believe me and evilpacman to be scum on the other team". You get partial credit for acknowledging the existence of multiple scumteams, so I am upgrading you to 'dumb town'. Congratulations!

Now, you're still using horribly faulty logic in your pursuit of DH. You seem to be equating 'wrong' with 'scum', and they are really, really not the same thing. Trying to determine whether DH really believes what he's saying, that's a good approach to take. That is, in fact, the very foundation upon which all scumhunting is built. But then you go and wreck it by saying that he should be lynched if he

does

genuinely believe it. This is the opposite of what we want to do. We want to look for the people who are NOT being genuine, and lynch them.

Also, it's pretty funny that you wrongly assume that I'd missed the fact that there were two scum teams because I implied a three-man scum team, while ignoring this:

vote DH

because he is obviously a bulletproof SK

...and another townie has joined the fray. Noticed how he subtly brings my attention to something I've forgotten in my lists (SK possibilities). Meaning that Parama isn't cleared yet because he is only townie due to interactions with EPM-scum. Guderian stays in the scum section, though.

[iamausername]

Vote: Nacho

- He wasn't originally aware of there being two scum factions.

I don't think this is a scum tell. I would be extremely surprised if every town player had noticed the information contained in their role PM before it was explicitly pointed out in the thread. I guess it makes him slightly more likely to be scum than average, all other things being equal, but.

Conversely, someone who clearly was aware of there being two scum factions without it being pointed out is quite a lot more likely to be town, which is why any suspicion of Guderian is totally whack right now. It think it's pretty likely that there are townies who didn't notice it, but highly unlikely that there are scum who DID notice.

Also totally whack: DH vociferously jumping to Nacho's defence with abject lies. Why not let Nacho fight his own battles, DH?

VOTE: Untrod Tripod
Please enjoy this instructional video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0V38hAK0C_g

[iamausername]

Why did you vote Untrod Tripod, iama? You didn't even mention his name in your post.

If you decided to vote Untrod Tripod, what reason would you use?

[iamausername]

I'm normally totally against people trying to stall lynches because it's "too soon" for some dumb reason, but when 25% of the players have literally not posted at all, they probably have a point.

[iamausername]

werewolf, do you plan to ever make a post that isn't just repeating the last post in the thread?

[iamausername]

Hey yo, I'm going to have no internet access for a couple of days. I'll be back Friday. Don't do anything I wouldn't do.

[iamausername]

Well, I'm trying to figure out what to post as a catchup, but nothing has really happened since I've been gone, so that's kind of difficult. Well, DGB turned up, that's always good. She looks like town DGB so far, I think.

Dearest Moderator, the following people are distinctly in need of prod/replacement:

Untrod Tripod
werewolf333

I don't think either of them are currently slated for replacement, and neither have posted in almost a week.

Unvote

VOTE: werewolf

I think we should wagon this guy just to see if he even notices.

[iamausername]

I will never rat out my scum buddies!!!!

So, you have more than one?

[iamausername]

VOTE: Untrod Tripod

Seriously, read his iso. It's a whole lot of nothing. Post #82 is particularly bad.

Also saw this post from ender (DGB's predecessor), when evilpacman was being run up early on:

I'm really disliking the fact that after a couple pages with little not many people posting people are making decisions on who's scum and town already. I haven't played any games except from newbie games on this site but you can't automatically decide who's scum and who isn't...

makes me think Calcifer may well be onto something.

[iamausername]

I want to know Guderian's role asap before I come to any definite conclusions.

I've thought about this, and I can't see how it would make any difference. Stop stalling.

[iamausername]

Interesting. So you both say that Calcifer may be right about pacman, but then go and vote an active lurker. How many scum are in this game again?

1-2 remaining from DGB's team (pacman is here), 2-3 from the other team (chances are that UT is here).

They both are, but it's who they vote for which is important. Iam votes for UT, which is a valid vote.
bv votes for a relatively-new player who is a little on the lurkerish side.

Which of those looks worse?

UT has lurked more than Tyler.

And that makes him a

less

valid vote?

today is DH or EPM. pick one.

pacman. But really, I'd love to know if there's any good reason not to lynch Untrod Tripod. The only posts he made on D1 that could possibly described as containing content contained

scummy

content. Post #82 & Post #84 are a completely obvious case of scum standing on the sidelines egging on a wagon on town (or, perhaps, other-team-scum) without getting involved in it themselves. "DH is digging holes for himself" is not a comment on his alignment, because both scum and town are perfectly capable of digging holes for themselves. It's just scum gloating that someone is getting in trouble and it's not him.

I mean, yeah, pacman is likely scum, but at least he's making the effort to pretend otherwise. It is frustrating to me that everybody seems to be content to ignore UT entirely.

Mod: Untrod Tripod needs an untrod triPROD

[iamausername]

Imagine Untrod Tripod promising content and failing to deliver for two full game days.

[iamausername]

Untrod Tripod has requested replacement.

laaaaame.

VOTE: evilpacman

[iamausername]

Hey all, super V/LA right now. Should hopefully be able to get a half decent post later today, then I'll probably have no access at all until Friday.

After that I'm moving in with my girlfriend, who does not yet have internet, but I'll get a start on sorting that out when I'm up there Tuesday to Thursday, so hopefully it won't take long before I'm back in action. Cheers!

just in case I need to bold text to make the mod read it:

Mod: mark me down as V/LA for the next week

[iamausername]

I'm willing to bet nhammen and Shark are inno too, since he's building a case on both of them.

What's that in front of me? A glass of wine? Don't mind if I do!

[iamausername]

Update on my moving/internet situation; activation date is Monday 21st, so I'll have pretty much no access next week. (I can get on with my phone, but that's hella tedious just to read threads, never mind making a decent sized post).

TOTALLY V/LA 14TH-21ST YOU GUYS

[iamausername]

Can we not lynch me for being V/LA? Something which is sitewide and therefore obviously has nothing to do with my alignment? Thanks.

Now, as it happens, I actually do have access this week that I didn't think I would, hence this post. bvoigt's explanation for Empking's continued survival makes total sense, so I will assume it is the right one, absent any better theories. SharkFinn is still a possible scum candidate.

Working on a reread now.

[iamausername]

Oh yeah, and I'm vanilla.

[iamausername]

Post #117: Ross is oddly concerned about an unexplained vote on Untrod Tripod. Note that he did not show the same concern when, for example, nhammen voted ender without explanation.

Post #145: Ross then proceeds to make an unexplained vote himself, as well as completely ignoring me asking him to consider for himself why I might be voting for UT. I think this is ample evidence that Ross has no actual problem with unexplained votes in general, which suggests to me that it must be the fact that I voted UT specifically that he had a problem with.

Post #178: Weird how Ross is the only name in bvoigt's "Not Sure" list that gets any notes. Almost like he felt Ross really belonged in the scumlist, but didn't want to bus.

Post #180 (et al): Really don't see this hydra argument happening between scumbuddies. I remember someone else suggesting it was contrived in order to distance from each other without anything game relevant, but I don't see it that way. The way Calcifer acquiesces to DH's demands strike me as trying to appease a townie he wanted to keep on side.

Post #233: Westerns killed DGB N1, and I doubt they were intending to hit Eastern. They killed DGB because they thought she was a threat, perhaps because two of their three members agreed that she was clearly town-looking?

Post #360: FoS buddy, vote townie, what a tell. Especially when it is literally the only time in the entire game that Calcifer actually uses a FoS.

Post #370: But then Calcifer calls UT "a valid vote", and yet never ever pursues him in any way. Hmm.

Post #371: Winking emoticon scumtell.

Post #380: bvoigt gives up on his tyler vote rather too easily, I think.

Post #389: No mention of either bvoigt or UT in Battle Mage's replacing in posts, so that's no help.

Post #420: DRK had bvoigt as a top suspect, and was one of the only people to do so. This could be the cause of his death.

Post #431: bvoigt posts a pretty baseless suggestion that "most of the scum are lurking". Note that Calcifer was maybe the most active player in the game.

Post #437: bvoigt not actually caring who gets lynched.

Post #489: bvoigt kicks off D3 by hunting exclusively for Eastern mafia.

Post #496: This made me lol. But Shark's series of posts there, while very wrong, as exemplified by this one, do read as town to me.

Post #527: Calcifer makes a couple of long-ass posts setting up Parama/bvoigt as the Western team, and votes Parama at the end of it, leaving him free to dissolve his suspicion on bvoigt when his Parama case turned out wrong. I don't think this implicates bvoigt particularly in itself, but it certainly doesn't clear him.

Post #532: In retrospect, I wish you hadn't made this vote, Empking. There could have been useful info in seeing whether the lynch landed on Calcifer or Parama after your claim, and how that came about, but this really decided things right away.

Post #585: While everyone else is content to just vote Calcifer without further comment, bvoigt is already trying to set up future mislynches.

Post #593: I still think that paying any attention to what outed scum are saying and using that to clear people is a terrible idea, and I don't understand how it's supposed to be scummy to point that out. But I also think that DH wouldn't be this quick to clear people if he was scum.

Post #622: Yeah, I think if Shark was faking the belief that there were two scum remaining, he'd have made a much bigger deal about it. Definitely seems like an honest mistake, and obviously not one that scum would make.

Post #637: Final nail in the coffin. bvoigt playing the long game because he knows he needs to get two mislynches to win, so he's looking to keep me around for tomorrow.

VOTE: bvoigt

Lynch me first if you must, but bvoigt is your last scum. My final request is a bvoigt lynch tomorrow.

[iamausername]

I've been thinking about the SharkFinn "two scum remaining" thing overnight... clearly he'd know there were no more scum on his own team, but is it possible that he thought there was one more remaining on the other team? He's frequently reminded us how he hammered two Eastern scum, so clearly he remembered them, but maybe he forgot about DGB dying before he replaced in?

Or maybe I just want to believe that SharkFinn is scum so I can feel vindicated for pushing on UT the whole game.

[iamausername]

Nope, just looked at SharkFinn's next post after the initial comment.

Assuming that EPM's mafia are gone and no SK, we have 2 left. >_>. If it's one, we're ok. if its 2, then its basically lylo. It cant be 3.

He clearly thought there were two Westerns remaining. If this was all a ruse, I commend SharkFinn on his acting ability, but this makes me pretty damn sure he's town. Which means it has to be DH. Dammit.

[iamausername]

How many other townies and scum in this game gave different numbers of scum and SK possibilities at the beginning of the game, iam?

I'm not sure what relevance this has. There's a pretty significant difference between players speculating about the number of scum at the start of the game, and players being mistaken about the number of scum when it's basically confirmed that there is only one remaining.

You probably should have tried to lynch me instead of Shark today.

[iamausername]

What did I see firsthand? I'm pretty sure I remember you saying the exact opposite yesterday? You made this post, right? I didn't imagine that?

[iamausername]

Because it was the start of the game and I didn't have any strong reads on anyone, and that seemed like a good way to go about getting them. Like for instance, it helped me determine pretty quickly that Guderian was obviously town.

Once there'd been enough posts for me to form my own opinions, I stopped following Nacho. There's no harm in doing a little sheeping when the time is right. The fact that Nacho turned out to be scum doesn't change my view on that. Neither, for that matter, does the fact that pacman also turned out to be scum. They're both fairly irrelevant to the point of what I was doing.

[iamausername]

Try actually reading my posts? #53 and #116 state pretty unequivocally that Guderian was town. Dumb town, but town nonetheless.

[iamausername]

Iam: explain this post for me.

OK!

Well, I'm trying to figure out what to post as a catchup, but nothing has really happened since I've been gone, so that's kind of difficult.

I had been away for a few days, and so I felt like I needed to post something, but struggled to find anything worth commenting on in the time I was away.

Well, DGB turned up, that's always good. She looks like town DGB so far, I think.

I like DGB, so I was happy that she replaced in. I incorrectly read her as town.

Dearest Moderator, the following people are distinctly in need of prod/replacement:

Untrod Tripod
werewolf333

I don't think either of them are currently slated for replacement, and neither have posted in almost a week.

I really hope this part is self explanatory, because I really don't think I can word it any clearer than that..

Unvote

VOTE: werewolf

I think we should wagon this guy just to see if he even notices.

Presumably the part you are struggling with. See also this previous post:

werewolf, do you plan to ever make a post that isn't just repeating the last post in the thread?

for further explanation.

werewolf gave every appearance that he was coasting by without even really reading the thread (hence my "see if he even notices" comment). I felt that this was something that needed to be dealt with sooner rather than later.

It led to 3 other votes on werewolf immediately.

Even if I was scum, I wouldn't have mind control powers, so this is not something that would be within my control either way. It did take me by surprise how quickly the votes appeared, considering how indifferent everyone was to Untrod Tripod's equally egregious lurking, but since getting votes on werewolf in order to force him to actually play the game was my aim, I didn't complain. I don't feel guilty about that, and I would do the same thing now. werewolf needed pressure. The fact that I incorrectly saw his reaction to that pressure as scummy and didn't withdraw from the wagon, that part is where I went wrong. Not in starting the wagon in the first place.

[iamausername]

OK, I must profess to feeling a little concerned about the fact that as soon as don says he's thinking DH is most likely scum and I'm town, Shark suddenly loses his doubts about me and votes for DH. That's a bit of a big coincidence to swallow.

[iamausername]

Both of us have had a lack of interaction with Parama.

And now you've got to go throwing in a mistake that's comparable to Shark's one yesterday, just to confuse me even more.

Parama was on the Eastern team, as in the one that we've eliminated entirely, so a lack of interacton with him doesn't mean anything. RossWilliam/Battle Mage was the other Western scum besides Calcifer.

I definitely need to read through this game again. It's a really tough one to call.

[iamausername]

DH, I found a book about your situation



hope this helps

hugs and kisses,
Untrod

Shark, what do you think of this post? I know you can't read your predecessor's mind, but what do you think he was trying to achieve with it?

[iamausername]

Vote: Nacho

- He wasn't originally aware of there being two scum factions.

Nothing that he talked about involved one scum faction total and you can't honestly prove that he had that in mind regardless. Can you contribute more?

DH, why did you feel the need to jump to Nacho's defence here? If you read Nacho's posts again now, with the benefit of hindsight, do you still think there's nothing in them that indicates that he wasn't aware of there being two scum teams?

[iamausername]

Looking at Battle Mage's posts, he heavily bussed Calcifer, said absolutely nothing about Untrod Tripod, commented a lot on DH without really giving a solid conclusion. I think this could be very useful information.

Gonna check out some scum meta to see if he's more likely to ignore his buddies or talk about them excessively even if he has nothing much to say.

[iamausername]

Battle Mage scum games:

Open #242 - Scumbuddies were Super Smash Bros. Fan and Haylen. Got into a drawn out argument with SSBF that looks a lot like his interactions with Calcifer here. Avoids mentioning Haylen early on, and gives a straight up no messing town read when he's forced to comment on her by the shrinking player list. And then busses once it's 100% proved that at least one of him and Haylen has to be scum, but that's not really relevant.

Mini #977 - Busses his one and only buddy from the get go. Not very useful, we already know Calcifer was his buddy.

Mafia #92 - Ignored all three of his buddies entirely, besides bussing when cop claimed a guilty on one of them.

Dark Goma - Scumbuddies were tubby, Porkens/LlamaFluff, Kublai Khan and dramonic. A little bit of fluffy pointless conversation with tubby in the early stages. Votes for all of tubby, KK and dram at one stage or other. Dram gets the heavy bus, the other two get mostly ignored once he finds an excuse to vote elsewhere. No comments on Porkens/Llama whatsoever.

Yeah, Battle Mage meta strongly suggests Shark scum here. In every one of these games, he either busses heavily, calls them straight up town, or ignores them entirely. There's none of the wishy-washy fence-sitting that he did with DH in this game.

[iamausername]

LET'S SEE WHAT HAPPENS IF I

VOTE: SharkFinn

[iamausername]

LET'S SEE WHAT HAPPENS IF I

VOTE: SharkFinn

Nothing until don votes. He's the other mason, remember?

I knew that. I was hoping maybe you or Shark would forget and start gloating. Or even that you'd remember, but I'd still get something useful out of the reactions.

If don wasn't around, mind, I'd be about ready to hammer Shark at this point.

iam: hows about sharkfinn?

I think it's him. The Battle Mage stuff looks pretty damning to me.

[iamausername]

Yeah, it was me. Sorry folks.

I really thought the last day was going to be a lot tougher than it turned out to be, because I was expecting DH to be gunning for me after Shark revealed himself as obvtown with that 'two scum remaining' mistake, and I'm surprised that I managed to swing the lynch over to him in the end in spite of that.

[iamausername]

Post #637: Final nail in the coffin. bvoigt playing the long game because he knows he needs to get two mislynches to win, so he's looking to keep me around for tomorrow.

So the town move would have been to quickhammer?

Well, it would have won town the game, so I'd say so, yeah.

I'm happy to share our QT if my partners are.