StrangerCoug's Worst Nightmare IIIS: The Dungeon (Game over)

[manho]

just know that day has started. will read the thread soon.

[manho]

i'm having 3 mid-terms and 1 presentation next week, so i may not be reading the thread soon.

[manho]

why is Baby Spice still alive. he's the most obvscum i've seen.
BE's vote on LLD is not a scum tell to me, as i always thought that lynching a claimed VT is standard procedure.
LLD is town for the reaction to the his own lynch.
Tasky is scum for unwilling to read and scumhunt.
M=W is scum for doing nothing but pushing the well-established wagon on LLD and BS.
someone do an ISO on Twomz will find that if you remove the PR-first liner, he has no content at all. so he's scum also.
parama is town. and i will think the stove is town if not agar did the great job in the original SWNIII as scum.
other is a no read or no time to read for now.

VOTE: Baby Spice

[manho]

Spoiler: @mod, this is important.

V/LA until 20/10.

[manho]

While xvart is annoyingly misguided about BE, I'm getting a townread on him.

While xvart's idea of exculsively lynching people with PRs is a bad one, I'm willing to bet there is scum among people with PRs (yes, I looked at your math, chesskid; while I do not doubt your skills as a mathematician, I disagree with your conclusion). Personally, my pick for post-restricted scum is manho. Let's go back to his post yesterday:

why is Baby Spice still alive. he's the most obvscum i've seen.
BE's vote on LLD is not a scum tell to me, as i always thought that lynching a claimed VT is standard procedure.
LLD is town for the reaction to the his own lynch.
Tasky is scum for unwilling to read and scumhunt.
M=W is scum for doing nothing but pushing the well-established wagon on LLD and BS.
someone do an ISO on Twomz will find that if you remove the PR-first liner, he has no content at all. so he's scum also.
parama is town. and i will think the stove is town if not agar did the great job in the original SWNIII as scum.
other is a no read or no time to read for now.

VOTE: Baby Spice

First off, he got Baby Spice's gender wrong, so I'm willing to bet he didn't look at her posts very closely.
He makes sure to specifically counter the point that BE's LLD wagon hop is perfectly OK (calling it "standard procedure," whatever that means).
He piles on to the people attacking Tasky without adding anything ... how original.
The M=W point doesn't make any sense at all, and looks like a bunch of spaghetti flinging. Not to mention the "pushing the wagon on BS" point is hypocritical.
Yeah, yeah, yeah... buddy up to parama so he doesn't publicly exhibit you on his list as scum.

1. i usually use he for everyone.
2. yeah i was defending BE for that vote.
3. yeah, as tasky is scum.
4. i don't know, maybe that's from gut feeling, but i just think that is scummy. and pushing a wagon with (seemingly) valid is different from putting down the last few votes.
5. parama's list is proven wrong, by the flips. but the behaviour is still town.

[manho]

Uh, no.
Supponiamo che ci siano 20 giocatori, 5 feccia, con 3 PR assegnati casualmente. Il numero atteso di feccia con PRS è (3) (1 / 4) = 0,75.
Le probabilità sono: 0 PR feccia: 15 * 14 * 13 / (20 * 19 * 18) = 40%
1 feccia PR: 5 * (15 * 14 / 2) / (20 * 19 * 18 / 6) = 45%
2 PR feccia: (5 * 4 / 2) (15) / (20 * 19 * 18 / 6) = 13%
3 PR feccia: (5 * 4 * 3) / (20 * 19 * 18) = 1%

Ora che sappiamo che tre sono morti feccia senza PR, e un morto PR, abbiamo:
16 giocatori, 2 feccia, 2 PR assegnati in modo casuale:
Numero previsto di feccia con PRS è (2) (2 / 16) = 0,25
Le probabilità sono: 0 PR feccia: (14 * 13 / (16 * 15)) = 76%
1 feccia PR: (2 * 14) / (16 * 15 / 2) = 23%
2 feccia PR: (2 * 1) / (16 * 15) = 1%

Succhiarlo.
Sono un grande matematico. So come funziona probabilità.

you major in maths too? then i think the PRs are not randomly assigned. SC just gave PR to maths students.
so let's have maths now.

i think we should do the probability on [no scum with PR] given that [3 scums flipped with no PR and 1 PR flipped town]

assumption:
1. PR are randomly assigned.
2. the flips are correct.
3. there are only me and chesskid being the alive PRs.
4. there are 5 scums in 20 players.

P[(no scum with PR)|(3 scums flipped no PR and 1 PR flipped town)]
= P[(no scum with PR) and (3 scums flipped no PR and 1 PR flipped town)] / P[(3 scums flipped no PR and 1 PR flipped town)]

first we calculate
P[(no scum with PR) and (3 scums flipped no PR and 1 PR flipped town)]
= P[(no scum with PR)] <------- since (no scum with PR) implies (3 scums flipped no PR) and (1 PR flipped town)
= (15*14*13)/(20*19*18)
= 0.399

then we calculate
P[(3 scums flipped no PR and 1 PR flipped town)]
= P[0 or 1 or 2 scums have PR]
= (15*14*13)/(20*19*18) + 3*(15*14*5)/(20*19*18) + 3*(15*5*4)/(20*19*18)
=0.991

so we have
P[(no scum with PR)|(3 scums flipped no PR and 1 PR flipped town)]
=0.399/0.991
=0.403

so there is still a high chance that one of me/chesskid is scum.

intuitively, a flipped PR not being scum only remove the chance that there are 3 scums with PR, but that's too small to compensate the more than half chance that there is at least one scum with PR.

[manho]

P[(3 scums flipped no PR and 1 PR flipped town)]
= P[0 or 1 or 2 scums have PR]

could you explain this step? thanks.

Spoiler: More maths here

P[(3 scums flipped no PR and 1 PR flipped town)] is talking about the probability that, after a random assignment of PRs, we still have 3 scums with no PR and 1 town with PR. it has nothing to do with the chance that we got 3 scums killed in a row. the only distribution that is removed after the flips is that all 3 PRs are scums, so the required probability is the chance that there are 0, 1, or 2 scums with PR, under random assignment of PRs.

hope it helps.

[manho]

P[(3 scums flipped no PR and 1 PR flipped town)]
= P[0 or 1 or 2 scums have PR]

could you explain this step? thanks.

Spoiler: More maths here

P[(3 scums flipped no PR and 1 PR flipped town)] is talking about the probability that, after a random assignment of PRs, we still have 3 scums with no PR and 1 town with PR. it has nothing to do with the chance that we got 3 scums killed in a row. the only distribution that is removed after the flips is that all 3 PRs are scums, so the required probability is the chance that there are 0, 1, or 2 scums with PR, under random assignment of PRs.

hope it helps.

I think you got it wrong there.

P[(3 scums flipped no PR and 1 PR flipped town)]
=P[(0 scums have PR)]+P[(1 scum has PR and he does not flip)]+P[(2 scums have PR and none of them flips)]
= (15*14*13)/(20*19*18) + 3*(15*14*5)/(20*19*18)*(4/10) + 3*(15*5*4)/(20*19*18)*(1/10)
<------- (4/10), (1/10) are the probability that if I choose 3 scums, none of them has a PR with 1 and 2 PR's in the scum group respectively. (4=C(4,3), 1=C(3,3), 10=C(5,3))
=0.596

therefore

P[(no scum with PR)|(3 scums flipped no PR and 1 PR flipped town)]
= 0.399/0.596
= 0.669

it seems that we don't need maths anymore, as PR are not randomly assigned. but i still want to say that

the factor (4/10) and (1/10) are not needed.

[manho]

chesskid is scum.

VOTE: chesskid

[manho]

Spoiler: Notes to myself

spoiler, invisible, purple, spoiler, invisible, purple, spoiler, invisible, purple, spoiler, invisible, purple, spoiler, invisible, purple, spoiler, invisible, purple, spoiler, invisible, purple, spoiler, invisible, purple, spoiler, invisible, purple, spoiler, invisible, purple, spoiler, invisible, purple, spoiler, invisible, purple, spoiler, invisible, purple, spoiler, invisible, purple, spoiler, invisible, purple...

will read BE soon after catching up in

Star Aligned III

.
i still think chesskid is the italian godfather.

[manho]

LOL, spoiler text is illegal... so is invisible text...

i'm still catching up in the other ongoing game

Star Align III

, so i've not read BE yet. has BE claimed vanilla?

[manho]

LOL, spoiler text is illegal... so is invisible text...

i'm still catching up in the other ongoing game

Star Align III

, so i've not

RE

read BE yet. has BE claimed vanilla?

If you haven't read BE yet, how did you know BE claimed vanilla?

i've fixed my post with the bolded "re". read the new posts are easy, but doing an ISO is time-consuming.

[manho]

chronopie is town,

or scum with parama.

[manho]

The Stove will be prodded. As with SWN III, I must manually look for manho's last post to see when it was; I'll report back when I check the posts made in the last three days.

Update:

manho's fine for right now.

i still haven't figured out what's happened on me...

[manho]

ok then,

unvote, vote: mothrax

Manho gets his first strike for post #723, which breaks his post restriction.

LOL, just messing around with the mod color.

[manho]

will be reading the last day soon.

Spoiler:

i still have no idea what's wrong with my account. maybe i'll get an alt for future games.

[manho]

Why my lynch. I was basically the only person who pointed out how stupid the TF case was and it turns out I was right.

maybe you are scum so you know TF is not scum for sure.

just saying that though i haven't read Espeonage and not decided him scum or not yet.

add in the stove in my list of to be read.

[manho]

Why my lynch. I was basically the only person who pointed out how stupid the TF case was and it turns out I was right.

maybe you are scum so you know TF is not scum for sure.

just saying that though i haven't read Espeonage and not decided him scum or not yet.

add in the stove in my list of to be read.

an iso on Espeonage shows that he is likely scum. and that last post in which he wanted to prove himself innocent makes him scum.

vote: Espeonage

for now. will read the stove later.

LOL, small words are shown as normal in google chrome, and i thought i've forgotten my PR when i read my own post.

[manho]

@mod, you've missed my vote.

i'm not scum, sorry.

[manho]

i haven't seen a case on me so i won't defend myself.

still trying to find some time to read the stove.

vote: Espeonage

if the mod can't find my last vote.

i promise not to put game-related stuff in invisible text.

[manho]

Jokes aside, Vote: Manho. He's making his post restriction more crippling than it has to be; having to post in spoilers or purple text for the entire game really isn't an excuse to not post any content throughout the course of it.

yeah, and i promise to only put random stuff in invisible text.

I'll have to look later in his ISO to see his posts, but I'm pretty sure that he's posting only to avoid prods.

i'll leave it until you look into my ISO.

He gets bonus scum points for being really late on both wagons, and I'd pretty much guarantee he didn't have any reasoning for jumping onto either of them.

my vote would have been on Baby Spice much earlier if i didn't missed half of the first day. and she was so obv-scum then.
i didn't find BE/moth that scummy, but he wasn't that pro-town either. i'd say he was neutral in my mind then. the deadline and the fact that 3 scums have dead make my wagon vote.

His votehop onto Espeonage with reasoning "an ISO shows that he is likely scum" is a scum cop out, and only adds to his case.

i can't explain the gut feeling, but that's the way it goes.

the stove is still my next read, but i still struggle to find some time to do that.

[manho]

Spoiler:

GO BULLS~~~

the framm/chrono slot is not scum.

[manho]

@mod, i'm sorry that i need replacement.

i really need more time for my study, so i'll be leaving the site for an indefinite time. i really enjoy playing mafia with all of you in MS. maybe be i'll come back some day. hope to see you guys then.

...just to add something here to not break my PR for my last post in the thread.