A Clash of Kings - A Divided Kingdom


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Post Post #2375 (ISO) » Wed Sep 15, 2010 3:03 pm

Post by Macavitar »

MagnaofIllusion wrote:So you would suggest that everyone look for people acting weird and that scum trying to lynch Town is weird?

If you want to address that you think my suspicions that Unsight and diddin / Mina are scum is suddenly a new position please do so. Otherwise you are throwing around generalities.
Yes! I
was
speaking in generalities. When I was first talking about this potential tell, it was in my iso 67, answering a question from Mina about scumhunting tomorrow if I'm the one who gets lynched today. The thought that it might apply to you was ancillary.
MagnaofIllusion wrote:I also find the unspoken assumption that I am hunting Town by not suspecting you is not a thought process I would expect to be coming from Town. Now you are making me paranoid about my read on you.
Let me repeat.
Macavitar wrote:However, I can admit that this may be the everyone-thinking-I'm-scum paranoia setting in.
MagnaofIllusion wrote:I disagree strongly that GMs don’t have tendancies and consistencies to the way they handle mechanics in their games.
OK, but this is a different mod (Faraday + Seacore vs Faraday), a different game type (Large theme vs Mini theme), different number of scum groups (3 vs 1), among many other differences. Being willing to be 100% confident strikes me as off.
MagnaofIllusion wrote:I want to go back and look at your reaction to how DripHyrda played Day 1. Because your statement that using bad logic to call someone obv-scum would seem to indicate that their Day 1 antics would draw your ire.
Don't even pretend that's the same thing. DGB made her lists with
no
specific logic to back it up, and that kind of thing is part of her meta. Bad logic is very different from no logic. And you'll find attacks on bad logic all over my meta.

----

Not a huge fan of the No Lynch. I tend to agree with Thor: the way we're set up right now, the scum won't be doing us any favors.
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Post Post #2376 (ISO) » Wed Sep 15, 2010 3:08 pm

Post by diddin »

Don't really like the idea of no lynching, it'll just put us back here tomorrow with a dead townie or two. There are enough extremely likely town players (has Thor Rich) that scum would not likely cross. Our best hopes is to lynch today. If we mislynch we better hope scum double team one person.
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Post Post #2377 (ISO) » Thu Sep 16, 2010 6:54 am

Post by MagnaofIllusion »

On the No Lynch


There are nine of us alive at this point. Generally I don’t think No Lynching outside confirmed MYLO is a good idea. The reasons I see being floated as to why we should consider it –

1. A Cross kill gives us a 6-1 advantage and thus 2 lynches and another No lynch to find the remaining scum via POE.
2. A double cross kill wins the game for us.
3. A double kill on a single Town player gives us a 6-1-1.
4. Possibly one or both scum are lazy or stupid and forgets to submit a kill.

I really don’t see options 2 to 4 as being very likely. Option 1 might work but is dependant on the scum accidentally cross-killing their opposite as I doubt they want to go to a 6-1 scenario when they could be in a 5-1-1 scenario.

Since the options for a No Lynch aiding us at this point seem slim I’m going to vote for who I think is scum.

Unsight Re-ISO


I already look at Unsight for Percy / Raivann and dana / IDI connections
here .

Summary of my thoughts on those interactions for Unsight –

Zero Raivann interactions and mild accusations towards Percy on Day 1 that he suddenly 180s on Day 2.
Day 1 early interactions with dana that disappeared Day 2. Had to be prodded to actually vote dana.

Looking at muki and xvart interactions –

In post 24 makes the following comments regarding Miku and xvart’s position on the growing dana wagon.
Unsight ISO 24 wrote:Percy - Percy's note that danakillsu was attempting to derail the Raivann wagon the most is spot-on. Drippereth is a close second with LMP coming in third.
Mikujin - Also ditto's Percy.
xvart - xvart is great. He spotted what almost looks like a scumslip by danakillsu's ISO 15.
This is interesting from a Lannister / Greyjoy standpoint. Buddies up hard to xvart. His assessment is Miku is dismissive (calling it a ‘ditto’) without calling him scum.

Also want to revisit the following statement from the same ISO –
Unsight ISO 24 wrote:I will support a danakillsu lynch, but not until the last 3 people explain what they're doing and why. Also, LMP is still scum.
The three people in question here were Vezo, Benmage, and CSL. Making your vote on a wagon dependant on a clear explanation from Vezo and CSL is giving yourself a reason not to vote the wagon.

ISO 25 – Again slightly buddies up to xvart.

ISO 64 – His colored read chart lists Miku as Town and xvart as Neutral.

ISO 70 – Another chart still lists Miku as Town.

Summary –
The limited interactions with both of them (no direct action, simply listing them in context of scumminess in multiple lists) don’t change my mind on his identity as the last Greyjoy as opposed to the last Lannister.

Looking at the dana wagon again I certainly can see why, as a Greyjoy, he was hesitant to join the wagon. Percy and Miku were already on there and plopping himself there would put all three remaining Greyjoys on the wagon.

My vote is going to stay where it is. I’d rather lynch scum as opposed to No Lynching and I don’t see much support for my other candidates (diddin and Mina).
Macavitar wrote:OK, but this is a different mod (Faraday + Seacore vs Faraday), a different game type (Large theme vs Mini theme), different number of scum groups (3 vs 1), among many other differences. Being willing to be 100% confident strikes me as off.
Having Faraday assisted by Seacore as opposed to being the solo mod hardly qualifies as having a ‘different’ mod, especially in light of Faraday being the driving creative force, IMO.

What do this game being a Large versus Mini Themed game and the number of scum groups have anything to do with Faraday’s consistent use of BP conventions again?

Having enough confidence to call a claim fake doesn’t mean it’s 100% assured confidence. Its only in hindsight that my conclusions were proven correct.
Macavitar wrote:Don't even pretend that's the same thing. DGB made her lists with no specific logic to back it up, and that kind of thing is part of her meta. Bad logic is very different from no logic. And you'll find attacks on bad logic all over my meta.
I disagree 100%. No logic at all isn’t excusable via meta regardless, IMO. And your assertion that it is Bad Logic doesn’t make it so. That’s simply your opinion.

Deadline is within 3 Days
– if as a group we intend to actually lynch other than Unsight (who is currently the closest to the gallows) we need to start moving in that direction soon.
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Post Post #2378 (ISO) » Thu Sep 16, 2010 7:13 am

Post by Thor665 »

@diddin - do you or don't you trust/believe Mac? I ask because you're currently voting the same way he is right now and you seemed pretty sketchy towards him - what are you thinking?

@Mina - I officially am not inviting you to my birthday party anymore - please get in here with thoughts on the current situation you haven't posted anything substantive since Sunday. Shame on you!

@has - I'm down with a CSL lynch.

Vote: CSL
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Post Post #2379 (ISO) » Thu Sep 16, 2010 7:24 am

Post by Mina »

Aah!

This game. This fucking game.

Where do I start?

That I
finally
figured out what was bothering me about MagnaofIllusion (summarized version: the way he keeps hammering more on the consistency of his reads than trying to evaluate if they're valid, as well as how he comes across as though he tries to score points in his arguing, but I had a huge half-completed case that's saved on my computer)...only for my Internet to die on Tuesday? And that I went to my father's house to use his computer last night only to find out that it was broken? And that it's taken me an hour and a half to write a post that consists of nothing but venting on an iPhone, when there are two days before the deadline and I don't want to vote until I post my Magna case and ask Mac a few more questions?

That the very post that made me think Magna was scum made Thor come out with, "OMG, Magna is totally town, and we're totally not lynching him ever!" and then give a ranking of suspects that is the COMPLETE OPPOSITE of mine? (Re: CSL, I think that if everyone decides a Mac lynch is a bad idea, then a Magna or Unsight lynch is better strategically because it narrows two suspect pools. That said, it's really fucking annoying how every time I try to find a nugget of towniness behind that scummy exterior, CSL goes out of his way to do something antitown.)

That Unsight is a total moron who isn't even reading the thread, because he hasn't noticed that CSL UNVOTED MACAVITAR because he "believed his claim," then jumped to vote "NL," and because EVERYONE has expressed some form of doubt about Macavitar's guilt? That he uses "Macavitar is confirmed scum, and I'm confirmed town" as a justification for half his arguments?

That diddin won't go beyond one or two-line opinions or take a position on me even when I call him a scumbag to his face, because that would involve actual work?

That OMIGOD, CSL FUCKING SERIOUSLY VOTED NO-LYNCH, AND STILL HASN'T EXPLAINED WHY HE INEXPLICABLY FLIP-FLOPPED ON MACAVITAR? And...GAH! Why did everyone pressure SSBF to kill vezok instead?

That I think we're simultaneously WAY overthinking this and not thinking things through enough? (Be honest. Who here has so much as reread the thread today to see who fits as a Lannister or Greyjoy?) That I'm now back to thinking the scum are Macavitar and Magna, and yet they're less braindead and sheepish than almost all the surviving players? And that I'll probably change my mind again in two minutes, because I suck at this

That people seriously considered
No-Lynching
?

My God. That is it. I am seriously taking a long break from Mafia after this. I spend too much tome
either getting mad at myself or getting mad at other players.
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Post Post #2380 (ISO) » Thu Sep 16, 2010 7:32 am

Post by Mina »

But Thor, I had an outfit specially picked out for it! :(

This time, I have an excuse. As I said in my huge wall post above, I've been having Internet problems over the past couple of days.

Again, I think CSL is better off as a lynch for tomorrow than for today, because I don't think he can be a Lannister.

Aaaaaah.

Hey, Mac. What do you think about Magna's analysis posts? You were the one talking about cognitive dissonance. Do you think he genuinely believes that Unsight is scum?

Also, what are your thoughts on CSL and Unsight?
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Post Post #2381 (ISO) » Thu Sep 16, 2010 7:40 am

Post by Mina »

I also realized my attack of Unsight wasn't entirely fair, because he did say CSL kept his vote on Macavitar "for a long time." I still think his reasoning is very shallow.
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Post Post #2382 (ISO) » Thu Sep 16, 2010 7:47 am

Post by Mina »

For the quadruple!

Also, I'm sorry if I offended anyone in the above post. I was just venting.

I think my Internet is working again, so after work, I'll head back and post what I have on Magna. I wished I'd got it out earlier, so he'd have more time to react to it.
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Post Post #2383 (ISO) » Thu Sep 16, 2010 7:48 am

Post by Mina »

EBWOP: although I won't get home until 11:30-12 AM EST.

Now I'm really done.
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Post Post #2384 (ISO) » Thu Sep 16, 2010 8:40 am

Post by Thor665 »

Mina wrote:Again, I think CSL is better off as a lynch for tomorrow than for today, because I don't think he can be a Lannister.
::shrug:: then get in here and vote Unsight and I'll happily follow that wagon, I just did the shift for hasdaoifhml's sake on the presumption he has a better feel for Unsight then CSL and I'm pretty indifferent between them.

I'll accept your point about how I'm dealing with the dual scumteam question, but this was my first large game and my first time dealing with dual scum teams so I'll happily admit my issues there (and have already admitted them).

Look forward to your post with conclusions in it.
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Post Post #2385 (ISO) » Thu Sep 16, 2010 8:47 am

Post by CSL »

Gah. I REALLY need to stop flip-flopping like that!

That's it. No more distractions. Die, Unsightscum.

unvote; vote: Unsight
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Post Post #2386 (ISO) » Thu Sep 16, 2010 8:54 am

Post by RichardGHP »

Unvote

Thinking about something important. My mind will likely be made up by the end of the day.

No-Lynch is a terribad idea, especially when it is confirmed not to be MyLo. Hard to believe people are seriously contemplating it - you are only giving the scum a free kill and setting us back at square one tomorrow. How many scum are there? 1 or 2?

If there is one scum left, we have 3 mislynches before 3 way LyLo; if there are two opposing scum
left, we have have one mislynch before 4:2 MyLo (If one scum kills the other, we get another mislynch before MyLo. If the two scum crosskill then yay!). If there are two scum from the same team (unlikely), we have two mislynches before MyLo.

Now, if there are indeed three scum, then No-Lynch is the optimal course of action today. But the likelihood of that isn't exactly sky-high. If each team has three members and there is an entire team left, then frankly, we're fucked. But I can almost guarantee that that is not the case; that there are 4 people to both teams. We have at least one mislynch at our disposal, two if a mafia dies tonight. Let's not sit around on our hands voting for No-Lynch when we have a mislynch to use and
information
to gain.
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Post Post #2387 (ISO) » Thu Sep 16, 2010 8:54 am

Post by RichardGHP »

Oh you just had to go and do that didn't you.
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Post Post #2388 (ISO) » Thu Sep 16, 2010 9:33 am

Post by hasdgfas »

Mina wrote:Aah!

This game.
I feel the exact same way right now.
Mina wrote:That I think we're simultaneously WAY overthinking this and not thinking things through enough? (Be honest. Who here has so much as reread the thread today to see who fits as a Lannister or Greyjoy?) That I'm now back to thinking the scum are Macavitar and Magna, and yet they're less braindead and sheepish than almost all the surviving players? And that I'll probably change my mind again in two minutes, because I suck at this
Oh, I've been thinking the same thing, at least in terms of me personally.
Mina wrote:That people seriously considered
No-Lynching
?
Hey, I tried actually doing math on it, was shown that I had missed something, dropped it. But No Lynch is sometimes the best idea. Just not in this case, as was shown to me.




ugh, school is destroying any free time I have. If only I had more time, there are a few things I want to check. Such as: who jumped on the Rifka wagon Day 3 to keep Unsight from getting lynched. What the flipped Lannies/Greyjoys said about other players. Etcetera
jdodge1019: hasjghsalghsakljghs is from vermont
jdodge1019: vermont is made of liberal freaks and cows
jdodge1019: he's not a liberal
jdodge1019: thus he is a cow
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Post Post #2389 (ISO) » Thu Sep 16, 2010 10:35 am

Post by diddin »

Thor I still think Macavatar is scum. I just would rather lynch Greyjoy scum today.
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Post Post #2390 (ISO) » Thu Sep 16, 2010 2:24 pm

Post by hasdgfas »

Unsight (7): MagnaOfIllusion, Macavitar, CSL,
Richard
,
Benmage
,
Vezokpiraka
, Diddin
Unsight (7): MagnaOfIllusion,
RichardGHP
,
Benmage
,
Vezokpiraka
, Diddin,
Rifka Viveka
, CSL

Rifka (9):
Thor665
,
Locke Lamora
,
xvart
, Macavitar, Mina,
Axelrod
,
Hasdgfas
,
Super Smash Bros. Fan
, Diddin

so, the first thing I see, is that I had forgotten we only had two scumflips since this happened, one of whom was SK.
xvart voted for rifka and stayed away from unsight at that point, so if anything,
maybe
he's more likely Lannister, but I really don't see much to be gained from looking at that in that way.



Now, while I was looking through old parts of the game, I decided that I had a very important question/clarification to ask(please nobody ask about this while I'm waiting for an answer):
@Mod: Regarding the stabbing Day 2, did it remove all factional abilities, such as mafia group nightkills? Or just a personal nightkill ability such as an SK's?



So, looking at dead scum, I couldn't find much again. Either I'm just really rusty at re-reads(quite likely) or I'm still sicker than I thought(also quite likely):

Mikujin had a huge argument with Macavitar over nothing, which was really weird. No voting/FoS'ing/anything, just a big argument. As though it was just for distancing.

Otherwise.......nothing. Maybe I'm just blind. Maybe it's just been a really long day, but I couldn't find anything substantial from the dead scum about anyone alive. Ugh.
diddin wrote:Thor I still think Macavatar is scum. I just would rather lynch Greyjoy scum today.
Greyjoy in particular?
jdodge1019: hasjghsalghsakljghs is from vermont
jdodge1019: vermont is made of liberal freaks and cows
jdodge1019: he's not a liberal
jdodge1019: thus he is a cow
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Post Post #2391 (ISO) » Thu Sep 16, 2010 3:01 pm

Post by Eddard Stark »

hasdgfas wrote:
@Mod: Regarding the stabbing Day 2, did it remove all factional abilities, such as mafia group nightkills? Or just a personal nightkill ability such as an SK's?
In this situation a mafia faction's nightkill would not be affected by a member of said group being stabbed. So, no, it wouldn't remove factional abillities.


edit:

Vote count 5.9 - The "I've taken to re-using quotes in case you hadn't noticed" votecount.


Macavitar (1) -
Unsight

Unsight (2) -
MagnaofIllusion, CSL

MagnaofIllusion (2) -
Macavitar, diddin

CSL (1)
Thor665


Not voting (2) - Mina, hasdgfas, RichardGHP



With 9 alive it takes 5 lynch.
Deadline will hit on the 18th of September @ 6pm ES(D?)T.
Last edited by Eddard Stark on Thu Sep 16, 2010 3:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Post Post #2392 (ISO) » Thu Sep 16, 2010 3:18 pm

Post by CSL »

Mod: You have me voting Unsight twice.
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Post Post #2393 (ISO) » Thu Sep 16, 2010 3:26 pm

Post by diddin »

Yes hasdgbfsnjk. The flip of a Greyjoy roleblocker or the lack of the flip of one greatly affects the case on Mac. Since Mac being town relies on Ben JKing him, a flipped Greyjoy RB could change that quite a bit.
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Post Post #2394 (ISO) » Thu Sep 16, 2010 11:24 pm

Post by Mina »

This is the most indecisive, rudderless town ever. It's hilarious. We're all waiting for someone to turn the game around with a brilliant piece of analysis so we can blindly sheep him or her. Or for all the unconfirmed townies to act townish. Seriously, is it
that
hard to look town when you're town?

hascow, just a note about xvart: he'd actually proxied his vote to Locke, who made xvart vote Rifka. xvart himself said he'd prefer to lynch Unsight to Rifka. IMO, that's probably
more
of a point against Unsight (considering that xvart would have wanted to look like his scumbuddy's enemy), because xvart claimed out of the blue to suspect Unsight most, but then instead of casting his vote for a suspect, proxied his vote to someone who was critical of Unsight's wagon. I'll be kind of annoyed if it turns out that xvart and Unsight are scumbuddies and he was allowed to cop out of making a decision (although admittedly, that makes me biased :P).

Gah. I've been up until 6 AM, and the Internet keeps distracting me from Mafia. I can't think straight right now. Um...I'm too tired to go into everything that bugged me about Magna and respond to stuff I didn't like in his defence (like where did I ever twist the facts against him to simultaneously accuse him of "master distancing" and "working obviously with Mikujin"? All I said is that he seemed to make weird assumptions that were similar to other weird assumptions made by flipped Greyjoys. And you
still
haven't given a good reason for why you thought Greyjoys were more likely to be on the early dana mob than the early SSBF mob. And I don't buy your explanation for your flip-flop on putting Axelrod at L-1.) But for now, here's part of what I'd written on Tuesday.

Except I'm already doubting myself. Because 1) he's put effort into rereads and partnership analysis, which is a towntell for all but the strongest players, 2) it's mostly his behaviour today that's bugged me, and 3) *twitch* CSL, you realize that you flip-flopped on
Macavitar
, and not on Unsight...and people have asked you five hundred times why you said you believed his claim mere hours after saying you'd hammer him...and...and....

My God, CSL.
Why are you doing this
? Why, dammit?
WHY
? *sobs* How can
scum
look this scummy? This game has made me a supporter of early policy lynches.

=================
So I think I can finally pin down what's been bugging me about Magna.

You know what I think it is? How MagnaofIllusion keeps on reiterating that his suspect list is diddin/Mina = Lannister and Unsight = Greyjoy, that his suspect list has always been diddin/Mina and Unsight, that he is 100% consistent in his suspicions of diddin/Mina/Unsight, and his reasoning for suspecting diddin/Mina/Unsight had been clearly explained in ISO X on Day 4, so back off.

Seriously, if someone wants me to quote every time he does this today, I will. It's almost once or twice a post.

Not only does he use this as a defence every time someone looks at him funny (even when his suspicions of diddin/me/Unsight are barely related to the accusation against him), but he helpfully reminds us all that he's always suspected Y (as clearly laid out in ISO X on Day 4) every time he attacks Y.

It's like the flipside of the joke that inconsistency is a towntell. :P Rather than worry about such details as, you know,
whether diddin, Unsight, and I are actually scum
, he's more interested in proving the consistency of his reads.

Because maybe I'm just assuming everyone else is as neurotic as I am, but right now is when town should be
floundering
. Not saying, "I solved the game on Day 4, so here is my scum list."
MagnaofIllusion wrote:If you want to address that you think my suspicions that Unsight and diddin / Mina are scum is suddenly a new position please do so. Otherwise you are throwing around generalities. I also find the unspoken assumption that I am hunting Town by not suspecting you is not a thought process I would expect to be coming from Town. Now you are making me paranoid about my read on you.
See, this is probably the only time Magna shows
doubt
in his kneejerk certainty that Mac is telling the truth. And I
sort
of see where Magna is coming from--yeah,
technically
, scum would be more likely to attribute this to scum--although I can also see town!Mac thinking that the evidence against him looks bad. But his "now you are making me paranoid" is one line tacked on to the end. Call it gut, but it rings false. I don't feel that Magna is really a paranoid innocent second-guessing himself.
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Post Post #2395 (ISO) » Fri Sep 17, 2010 12:03 am

Post by Mina »

Hmm. I just thought of something.

Mods: does jailkeeping prevent someone from being targeted in any way, or just from being nightkilled? For example, could a jailkept player be successfully investigated?

Mod ~ The mods will not confirm or deny the exact aspects of any role.
I.e. Nice try, Mina.
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Post Post #2396 (ISO) » Fri Sep 17, 2010 1:37 am

Post by Macavitar »

VP Baltar checking in.

Hey everyone, I'm finally back. I still have some reading to do over the pages I missed, but hopefully I can add something useful here soon and get this game going in the right direction. MacavityLock gave me a summary of what has been going on, but I obviously need to find the details for myself. It's unfortunate that the town got so distracted today by a faulty result on us, but if the shoe was on the other foot I know I'd be suspicious too, so meh. I kind of think it's funny that people think Mac is some kind of mad genius that came up with a super detailed role claim in an hour. :P Sometimes the simplest answer is the correct one, young jedis. I'm rather curious why the Unsight lynch came apart, as I've thought that was a good lynch for quite some time. Unsight seems to only pop in this game occasionally, and that is generally only to ward off suspicion or spout tinfoil hat theories about us being in a third scum team with SSBF.

@Mina - A jailkeeper generally blocks everything, making it a double-edged sword of sorts.
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Post Post #2397 (ISO) » Fri Sep 17, 2010 2:12 am

Post by Thor665 »

Mina wrote:This is the most indecisive, rudderless town ever. It's hilarious. We're all waiting for someone to turn the game around with a brilliant piece of analysis so we can blindly sheep him or her. Or for all the unconfirmed townies to act townish. Seriously, is it
that
hard to look town when you're town?
I will note I've actually come out with my lynch preferences and a vote. I was rudderless earlier, not now. Frankly all of your, 'oh ye poor lost town' posts when you aren't able to come out with a serious order for who you'd prefer to see lynched is starting to just grate on me.
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Post Post #2398 (ISO) » Fri Sep 17, 2010 2:48 am

Post by Mina »

I'm sorry.

For the record, I was referring 90% to myself (hence the "we") when I said the town was indecisive and rudderless.

I am making an effort to figure this out. I'm just better at questions and analysis than at actually coming to the right conclusion. But I'll try to keep my doubts and angsting to myself instead of in the thread if it irritates people to read them.

@VP Baltar: that actually wouldn't be good news for you, since Benmage was suggesting that Locke investigate you. It would make you a less likely jailkeeping target.
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Post Post #2399 (ISO) » Fri Sep 17, 2010 3:05 am

Post by Thor665 »

@Mina - wasn't Benny doing that on Day 3? He would have needed to do it Day 2 for it to be relevant. (I only was able to iso the Day 3 occurrence)

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