/Invitational 11: Pick your Poison 5 (Game Over)

[Patrick]

Votecount

VasudeVa (2) -- Seraphim, ooba
ooba (1) -- Papa Zito
DrippingGoofball (3) -- Elmo, zoraster, mith
Seraphim (1) -- My Milked Eek
zoraster (4) -- ekiM, Plumegranate, Rhinox, SpyreX
Papa Zito (1) -- Herodotus
mith (3) -- VasudeVa, Kmd4390, DrippingGoofball

Not voting: Ellibereth, AdumbroDeus
17 alive, 9 to lynch.

Deadline: 11th of September, 6 am GMT

[mith]

DGB: You agreed with Kmd's post, before he posted it, and made 1161 rather than voting for me? For serious?

Kmd's case against me is clear, if misguided: He thinks there is

no chance

zoraster-scum would play dumb, and he doesn't think I believe he would do so. 1161, on the other hand, uses words like "unlikely" and "I don't think" when discussing the fake-ignorance possibility. That's not evidence you agreed with Kmd; it doesn't rule out the possibility of fake-ignorance, and it certainly doesn't touch the question of whether I would genuinely consider it a possibility.

[mith]

EBWOP for pronoun clarity: "and he [Kmd] doesn't think I believe he [zoraster] would do so."

[DrippingGoofball]

DGB: You agreed with Kmd's post, before he posted it, and made 1161 rather than voting for me? For serious?

For serious. I was debating with whether you would be doing this as scum, or as town. I made a case against zoraster. So I liked your conclusion (a zoraster vote), even if your own logic should have led to the opposite conclusion (a vote for anyone but zoraster). But see, that's how you gave yourself away as scum; you were looking for a reason to join the wagon so badly that you didn't realize your "logic" was upside down and inside out.

Better luck next time.

[mith]

...how could my logic possibly lead to the opposite conclusion? That doesn't even make a little bit of sense.

[DrippingGoofball]

Surely if zoraster is scum, he would be aware of the Kmd/Elmo situation (via quicktopic if nothing else).

Right off the bat, this premise is entirely false. As far as I've seen, a scum that flakes in-thread flakes in the QT as well. But. Let's say you're right, he's not paying attention to the game, but he's a devoted fan of the scum QT.

But on the other hand, surely if zoraster were town and thought the Elmo situation were worth discussing, and had been told

why

it wasn't being discussed, he would

go read the relevant portions of the thread

.

That, is true.

...ignorance is probably about as (un)likely either way, but add the possibility that he's scum playing dumb and it's yet another point against him.

Ignorance is actually quite likely either way. But the possibility that he's scum PLAYING dumb is remote. He may be DUMB SCUM, but PLAYING SCUM??? Nah.

So really, your conclusion ought to be that zoraster's lack of attention is a NULL-TELL at best (I correct my earlier statement that your conclusion should have been the opposite; it should have been DIFFERENT is more accurate).

HOWEVER, comes a demand for a claim, and a vote, at the crucial L-1 moment:

VOTE: zoraster (L-1)

I question your motives for voting zoraster. Here's where I'm at: I believe that zoraster is lazy, scaredy, not-paying-attention scum. But here comes mith, who tunnels on me, but at the end of the day, votes zoraster the leading wagon on reasons that should have him conclude a zoraster null-tell. So now I'm thinking you must be scum, and zoraster town.

[mith]

I'm not going through the logic again - it's right here in 1170 for anyone to look at.

DGB's post is wonderful, though. She discredits the one part of my post that might lead one to the conclusion of town-zoraster, agrees with the "ignorant-town-doesn't-make-any -sense" part, but then turns around and says ignorance is likely either way. How does that work? She again calls the "playing dumb" possibility "remote" rather than ruling it out entirely (as Kmd does) -

the whole point is that actual ignorance is a null-tell, so any possibility of "playing dumb", even a remote one, bumps the ignorant post to some level more scummy than null

.

The rest has already been addressed in my responses to Kmd. My motives in voting zoraster are clear from my posts - he was my second suspect before his much anticipated analysis post, said post failed on multiple counts such that it's difficult to believe that it came from a townie trying to figure out the game, we were getting fairly close to deadline, and support for a DGB lynch was lacking (hopefully this latest string of posts from her will help on that front).

---

zoraster: I still want answers to the questions asked in 1150 and 1160.

[Ellibereth]

/antiprodwillcatchuplater.

Just saying, not really that suprised Zor would have missed that (see that assassins game).
And I don't see him as the faker type, the question is if he's scum who missed it in the QT...

[Herodotus]

mith's defense regarding his logic is valid. Post 1170 accurately explains the issue as I see it.
That doesn't mean that mith isn't scum, but that issue isn't a reason to think he is.

Zoraster's posting has a slight genuine feel to it, which makes me wish we had longer deadlines so we could expect more from him over time and look at more options, like Plumegranate and Rhinox.

I could possibly join a DGB lynch.

[mith]

We're... 36 hours from deadline, I think? People need to be voting, or moving their votes to a viable lynch candidate.

Mod:

My Milked Eek has not posted in four days, after supposedly returning to the game.

[Mr. Flay]

36 1/2 hours until deadline, yes.

I will let Patrick handle prods.

[Elmo]

post

[SpyreX]

No.

The discussion about KMD's claim was a focal point of the day.

31, 32, 33, 34 with a smattering on other pages.

I did a readthrough a few days ago when I was catching up with the game, and then did the person-by-person analysis mostly by iso (sometimes checking the context for things).

These two things do not go together. They are the matter and the anti matter.

[DrippingGoofball]

With less than 36 hours from deadline, I'll cut mith some slack and return to zoraster-scum. His wagon petered out, and he stopped posting. Not good.

VOTE: zorater

[VasudeVa]

SpyreX needs to die. He's been way more useless than I have.

Vote: Spy

[mith]

Golly gee, DGB, that's awfully generous of you, cutting me slack like that.

I'd rather lynch DGB than zoraster. Her recent posts don't read like town-trying-to-find-scum; they read like scum getting a little caught up in the excitement of the pretty-much-confirmed innocent barking up the wrong tree when she can't get the justification straight for her own vote.

VasudeVa: We are nearing deadline, and you're jumping to someone with no votes? That seems particularly odd for you, given your "I wagon, it's what I do" meta defense.

What are your thoughts on DGB and zoraster?

[Patrick]

Mod: My Milked Eek has not posted in four days, after supposedly returning to the game.

MME prodded, still looking for a Papa Zito replacement.

[VasudeVa]

I could swing for either with a slight leaning for zoraster, but right now I'm checking for wagon support on Spy. I really feel that this guy needs to die. I've done something similar before and I found that it had some success, even with deadline so close.

[DrippingGoofball]

It's not going to happen, VV.

[mith]

VasudeVa: I asked for your thoughts on them, not which you would rather lynch. What about each is scummy enough that you could "swing for either"? Why do you find zoraster more scummy? Why did you unvote zoraster?

Also, why do you "really feel" that SpyreX needs to die? I have no interest in switching to SpyreX today, but I'd like you to elaborate anyway.

[VasudeVa]

I don't really think that DGB is scum, but I don't mind her lynch. Her play feels confused and mislead which I think is a Town tell for her since I read some of her games before and when she is scum she knows what she is doing. Zoraster is scummy due to his admittance of active lurking(posting in MD and not posting here.)

SpyreX is lazier than most people in here and people have been ignoring that. I know for a fact that he actually reads the games when he is Town, and here he doesn't look like he is. He always has good analyses even if they are sometimes mislead. Here he isn't. He was lazily riding along my wagon for a long time and then lazily rides zoraster's wagon as well. He needs to die.

[Seraphim]

Come on folks, it's not TOO LATE to lynch VasudeVa. Bleagh.

Unvote
Vote: mith

The zoraster wagon feels wrong and I think KMD has outlined the reasons for why mith is the right lynch for today.

[mith]

Seraphim, have you read 1170? If not, I suggest you do so. If so, I suggest you justify your vote beyond "I agree with Kmd even though mith already refuted his reasoning".

(Your other comment on me, in 1149, was already partly addressed in 1055 - I was never "sitting on the fence". My willingness to vote for you as deadline approached was obviously contingent on you both being my next-best suspect and on there being a chance of you being lynched; it's clearly untrue to suggest that I "looked ready to jump on until other players started calling me obvtown", given that I was arguing with one of those players who said he thought you were town. I switched to zoraster because he jumped ahead of you on the scumdar - for reasons you can track through my posts - and because his was the only viable wagon at the time that I had reason to get behind.)

What are your thoughts on DGB? You've said very little about her (apart from 938, and listing her relative to others with possible wagons).

[mith]

VasudeVa: You think DGB is town, but are willing to lynch her anyway? Why? Also, where did zoraster admit to active lurking? (All I see is him saying exactly the opposite.)

[Elmo]

lol, the mith wagon is so bad.

DGB remains a really good lynch, I can't believe the same people who were pushing Vas for (amongst other things) rampant vote hopping haven't gone nuclear over her play in the last ~week.

Beyond that, I've kind of lost interest. I dislike Vas appearing to dodge my questions, but w/e on that. zoraster is also okay, albeit I sympathise a bit.